I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.
That is why the Korean drive-through tests were a good idea. We started to trial them here, but clearly they have now been ditched.
Have they? Why?
If you have chosen the herd immunity route, what is the purpose of widespread testing? Symptoms will be treated, and testing will only be done to the extent that it aids with treatment. R-T PCR testing will no longer be done for epidemiological purposes.
At some point, when we have it, serological testing with large samples of the general populace will be used to ascertain the level of herd immunity.
The polling which shows broad support for the government should be required study for all the press and media hacks who are desperate to add division and discord at the time when we really need unity above all else. I live in Spain which is in full panic mode tonight just a few days after closing universities and schools has led to thousands of families leaving the worst affected areas to go totheir second homes in the least affected areas.
I think the positive ratings have much to do with the CMO and CSA who are extremely impressive individuals.
You should know that behavioural science predicting that when you declare a quarantine zone, large numbers leave the quarantine zone... well, that's bollocks according to a random person on twitter.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?
Chlorinated water doesn't sound like the best places for a virus. My understanding is that steam rooms and saunas take precautions against bugs in the vapour.
But would be interesting to see an actually study.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
It isn't Johnson's idea, it's the experts.
However I'd guess Dom is in a state of moistness over the term 'herd immunity'.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
It isn't Johnson's idea, it's the experts.
I doubt very much everyone had the same view- and I would think if the PM was someone who believed in the state a little more- then the outcome would have been different....
Within 2 weeks we'll be in lock down and trying to keep people away from each other as much as possible-
Probably. But that is pretty much what the science leads said yesterday. Now is not the time to go to full-on social distancing and isolation because people wont stand it for months on end.
O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport? Some Rugby League Olympic Boxing qualifiers....
Paris-Nice cycling although they have cancelled Sunday's stage into Nice.
Even events like that lose their shine. I could be vaguely interested just to get a line on form into the Giro or Tour but couldnt really care who wins Paris-Nice itself.
Seven of the World Tour teams withdrew before the start and a couple of others have done the same during the race. Sunweb have been doing well with two wins from Kragh Anderson and Benoot. With many of the classics cancelled it's not looking good for the Giro.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?
Chlorine in the pool will almost certainly kill it; sauna and steam rooms, the heat should do kill any virus contamination on surfaces.
However, the myth that a sauna will cure you of the virus if you've already caught it is nonsense.
Yeah I never thought it was a cure, I was just curious about transmission risks.
I've been thinking about joining a gym recently but put it off for now as I'm not sure about the risks etc - if I was to join it'd be primarily to use cardio equipment and then wanting to use a pool/jacuzzi/sauna/steam room after exercising but I'm not sure if that's safe or not right now.
It depends what the primary route of infection really is.
If it is droplet transmission, with close contact airborne and fomites as secondary routes, then gyms might be reasonably safe so long as you wipe down any equipment or surfaces you touch with your bare skin before you do so.
If is, as Osterholm and others are now arguing, genuinely an airborne disease like flu or the common cold, with droplets and fomites being of secondary importance, then any confined space with lots of people and recycled air will be bad.
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?
I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.
Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.
'"Do not just let this fire burn" - that's what World Health Organization director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned governments at the WHO daily press conference.
He urged countries to “find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of transmission”. Every case found reduced the risk of spread, he said.'
Were you listening Bozo???
Yes. To Peter Piot and other experts he knows and trusts
There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.
Do they still do a tit count?
- I didn't read it! God.
There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
I'd get it, it is possible after all, except the 'we cannot trust what the UK says is right' is usually coupled with a 'we must unquestioningly accept anything someone else says is right' attitude.
Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.
I have a *friend* who is an absolute cad, he said to a female friend 'I want to do zombie porn with you, I want to eat your brains and your [moderated]'.
The whole thing seems to be a joke, also reported they are all in a whatsapp group and high up in SNP. It is a comedy of errors.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
The only thing likely to make me immediately ditch my reluctant open-mindedness to the government on this one issue is the endorsement of Newton Dunn and the Currant Bun.
Mercifully the Mail is still up in arms, so maybe the Uk is not heading to hell in a handcart.
If you can get Melanie Phillips to complain about government policy, then I'll be handing out leaflets in support of Matt Hancock.
Comments
He drifted back in to 30.
Inexplicably.
https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS
At some point, when we have it, serological testing with large samples of the general populace will be used to ascertain the level of herd immunity.
Anyways, that's my best guess.
But would be interesting to see an actually study.
Nevertheless, with the EC requesting it it would have been bold to keep them going, even with massive poll leads to look forward to.
If it is droplet transmission, with close contact airborne and fomites as secondary routes, then gyms might be reasonably safe so long as you wipe down any equipment or surfaces you touch with your bare skin before you do so.
If is, as Osterholm and others are now arguing, genuinely an airborne disease like flu or the common cold, with droplets and fomites being of secondary importance, then any confined space with lots of people and recycled air will be bad.
NEW THREAD
That’s sort of nice, and a relief.
Dr Chen responded to say he wasn’t personally treating or admitting COVID patients
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.
I don't see how the GOP can survive and win the Presidency if Trump fucks this.
It is Trump or Bust.
Mercifully the Mail is still up in arms, so maybe the Uk is not heading to hell in a handcart.
If you can get Melanie Phillips to complain about government policy, then I'll be handing out leaflets in support of Matt Hancock.