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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Republicans move drop below a 50% betting chance for WH2020
There’s little doubt that Donald Trump is not having a good coronavirus crisis. His initial dismissal of this this being not much more than a commons cold hardly said a lot for his judgement in the early days.
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https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1238454333370445826?s=21
Trump very concerned about the people he has come in contact with who have covid 19
Typical Trump, concerned for himself not those with the virus
He is quite the most malign head of state the US has ever seen
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1238460996311756801?s=19
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1238462209195466752?s=19
I guess how the Trump tribe responds to people they know dying is the big question.
That and the economy crashing just in time for the election.
I think Biden should have been favourite before coro-chan hit America, and he should be a strong favourite now.
With five chapters devoted to The Mad King.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free.
Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation).
So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people.
Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution)
So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress.
Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important.
Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head.
I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.
It's a bold call.
The virus fades away in the summer sun (not to return until after the third of November.) The Dow roars back. Everybody is still employed, And Biden remains Biden.
Look out for some big boats up for auction in a couple of years!
The Democrats will sweep him away.
The problem is, will the USA actually get an election or will he go full on tyrant before then?
I see the markets are, after a morning of recovery, now sinking again.
Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?
Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.
Given that he (and at least one other member of his administration / staff who also had the virus) met Trump only days ago, there has to be a significant possibility that the president is now infected - and, if so, such an infection could spread through the administration quite rapidly given Trump's clear lack of concern about it.
He might have had a lucky escape.
Just heard there is a lack of PPE (including masks) at my local hospital.
I also understand people are STILL rocking up to A and E thinking they might have it (and they did ) and risking infecting many others - including NHS staff who we really need to protect.
But the worst story of recent days I heard was of a flight into Switzerland 150 passengers on board - on DISEMBARKATION passenger advises crew he has it. When asked why he travelled and put others at risk the answer was - If I said anything would not have been allowed to travel and I think Swiss healthcare best in world so wanted to get home.....
Shoot that fecker now.
The presidential election is constitutionally mandated and arranged by the states, not the federal government. I don't see how he could stop it even if he wanted to (though wanting to stop it would be an admission that he'd lose, and I'm not sure he'd ever accept that possibility anyway).
(Caveat: Testing is still a bit pants)
A boat can be put on a ship.
That’s all people need to know.
Also, if we're doing this, then some of them are "liners".
The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.
That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.
Many have suspended bookings and insurance is almost impossible to get
It will be years to recovery and many ships will end up in the breakers yards, sadly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDOMWK2spIw
But if Trump had the chance of going full on Mad King, I'm pretty sure he would take it.
The witness, known as Woman J, said the alleged incident - shortly before the independence referendum - had been "like an awful nightmare"."
Must have been a very authentic zombie walk then.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51870445
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0
All existing policies will still cover what they covered at time of purchase. Aviva has announced that travel disruption due to Covid-19 won't be covered for new policies, since it's no longer a risk; more of a guarantee (and therefore uninsureable). As I understand it, there is no impact to coverage for sickness whilst abroad.
LV= has withdrawn from the market altogether for the time being. A colleague has informed me that SportsDirect (no, not that one AFAIK) has also put in a Covid-19 exclusion, but I'm not sure if that's just disruption, or sickness as well.
The above is not advice; always read the small print to check coverage before purchasing, etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51853907
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
Does it dissipate? Does it come roaring back in the autumn? Does it mutate? Lots of unknowns
In that vein I hesitate to mention seriously laying Trump at 0.75, but what can one do ?
The bit that’s been broken, is the ability to log into the Vanilla comments system from the “third-party” main PB page.
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
However, I fear he may still win and that would be a disaster.