politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Republicans move drop below a 50% betting chance for W
Comments
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I recently booked to go on one next Jan/Feb.Black_Rook said:
In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BraveIanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?
Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.0 -
Overheard in the school playground: "I don't believe this coronavirus is real. And I won't believe it unless someone I know gets it."
People are weird.1 -
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.0 -
It is a different virus ...Nigelb said:
Well it's another (small) piece of evidence in favour of the shut it down as long as you can option.rottenborough said:
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.
Clearly on that side of the argument the development of one or more vaccines is the best hope, but this is a suggestion that the virus can change into something less deadly over time. Only a suggestion, though.
It is not even (yet) peer-reviewed & its conclusions are very tentative even for SARS-Cov-2
So, a very, very small piece of positive evidence.0 -
Everyone's saying listen to the experts but the Mayans were 8 years out on their prediction.1
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If you bought it for a few hundred million dollars under the book value, the price of cleaning it won't matter too much. Having it run around somewhere hot with the air-conditioning off for a few days will probably do the job just fine!Nigelb said:
Imagine the cost of the deep clean, though.rcs1000 said:
If carnival is smart, though, they will have done a lot of borrowing from a mid sized bank in a marginal Congressional district.Sandpit said:
Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?rcs1000 said:
Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step inSandpit said:
Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.logical_song said:
Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.IanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
But, you're right. Let it go bust and sell the assets. Maybe it's time to see if we can pick up a cheap cruise liner0 -
Bit of an inconsistency here...CarlottaVance said:
We do not recommend the use of facemasks as an effective means of preventing the spread of infection. Facemasks play an important role in clinical settings, such as hospitals, but there’s very little evidence of benefit from their use outside of these settings. However, if you receive external care you may be asked to wear a mask to minimise the risk to your carer.0 -
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Quite safe. Hawaiian Pizza is in the freezer.TheScreamingEagles said:
Banning Hawaiians pizzas as well.MarqueeMark said:
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.0 -
The Coronaaaaa (dead air for 2 secs) Vvvirus as he says.CarlottaVance said:0 -
CarlottaVance said:
The guidelines say "You cannot go for a walk."
Why? If I wear a large sign saying "Self-isolating" (or "unclean") and shout "keep away" to everyone (I live in a reasonably remote Cotswold village) I'd have thought I'd have a better chance of recovering quickly - and of keeping mentally fit too.
I could understand the argument for not walking if I lived in a crowded city. But in the middle of nowhere?0 -
You think Iran will actually manage that?SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.2 -
Are tissues selling out as well? I know they're more expensive than toilet rolls but...Theuniondivvie said:After a quick swatch of the local supermarkets this afternoon, the one absolute prediction that I'll make about the current & ongoing crisis is that kitchen rolls are going to be seeing a lot of action to which they have so far been unaccustomed.
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Louisiana Primary postponed - or possibly, given time constraints, cancelled.
https://twitter.com/bradcesak/status/12384941340942336000 -
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ?FrancisUrquhart said:
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.CarlottaVance said:
Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.0 -
At least they have a desire to do it.FrancisUrquhart said:
You think Iran will actually manage that?SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Here, the data for number of cases going forward basically become meaningless. Only the fatality figures will carry any weight.0 -
Most of these ships have had no cases of C-19 anyway so no need to treat them like a used nuclear reactor.Sandpit said:
If you bought it for a few hundred million dollars under the book value, the price of cleaning it won't matter too much. Having it run around somewhere hot with the air-conditioning off for a few days will probably do the job just fine!Nigelb said:
Imagine the cost of the deep clean, though.rcs1000 said:
If carnival is smart, though, they will have done a lot of borrowing from a mid sized bank in a marginal Congressional district.Sandpit said:
Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?rcs1000 said:
Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step inSandpit said:
Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.logical_song said:
Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.IanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
But, you're right. Let it go bust and sell the assets. Maybe it's time to see if we can pick up a cheap cruise liner1 -
The problem is if you start complicating the instructions, 90% of people don't read carefully the caveats and / or think well I am clearly one of those exception cases as not that many people live near me.Flanner said:CarlottaVance said:
The guidelines say "You cannot go for a walk."
Why? If I wear a large sign saying "Self-isolating" (or "unclean") and shout "keep away" to everyone (I live in a reasonably remote Cotswold village) I'd have thought I'd have a better chance of recovering quickly - and of keeping mentally fit too.
I could understand the argument for not walking if I lived in a crowded city. But in the middle of nowhere?
Furthermore, if you go out coughing everywhere, it will land on all sorts of surfaces. It is why we see China and elsewhere disinfecting streets.0 -
O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?0 -
I quickly skimmed it too -- but the evidence seems rather weak. I agree that host-pathogen interactions arise, and there may be weaker strains circulating.JM1 said:
Errrr... it's the same virus with a 382bp deletion, which putatively arises as viruses adapt to their host. Deletions in similar regions have been observed in other Coronaviruses previously and have been associated with a weakened phenotype. It's actually quite important since host-pathogen interactions arise and could mean that there are weaker strains circulating as we move forward. Not sure why you state it's a different virus (although I perhaps missed something on a quick skim of the paper)YBarddCwsc said:
It is a different virus ...Nigelb said:
Well it's another (small) piece of evidence in favour of the shut it down as long as you can option.rottenborough said:
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.
Clearly on that side of the argument the development of one or more vaccines is the best hope, but this is a suggestion that the virus can change into something less deadly over time. Only a suggestion, though.
It is not even (yet) peer-reviewed & its conclusions are very tentative even for SARS-Cov-2
So, a very, very small piece of positive evidence.
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No, its a desire to send a signal to the population, who probably aware via social media of mass graves and that the regime isn't telling the truth.SandyRentool said:
At least they have a desire to do it.FrancisUrquhart said:
You think Iran will actually manage that?SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Here, the data for number of cases going forward basically become meaningless. Only the fatality figures will carry any weight.1 -
At lease he's not calling it ChineseVirus.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Coronaaaaa (dead air for 2 secs) Vvvirus as he says.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Level 5/6 have not postponed, yet. Level 7 has. National League must be very tempted to cash in.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?0 -
M m m m my Corona!FrancisUrquhart said:
The Coronaaaaa (dead air for 2 secs) Vvvirus as he says.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Has he now stopped prefacing it with "from China" ?Benpointer said:
At lease he's not calling it ChineseVirus.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Coronaaaaa (dead air for 2 secs) Vvvirus as he says.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.1 -
The important questions....SandyRentool said:
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/12384256213756518400 -
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport?Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Some Rugby League
Olympic Boxing qualifiers....0 -
SARS-Cov-2 (ie Covid 19) is the virus in which they observed this particular deletion, so no, it's not a different virus.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a different virus ...Nigelb said:
Well it's another (small) piece of evidence in favour of the shut it down as long as you can option.rottenborough said:
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.
Clearly on that side of the argument the development of one or more vaccines is the best hope, but this is a suggestion that the virus can change into something less deadly over time. Only a suggestion, though.
It is not even (yet) peer-reviewed & its conclusions are very tentative even for SARS-Cov-2
So, a very, very small piece of positive evidence.
But yes, the conclusions are indeed tentative.0 -
Nope. SARS-Cov-2 is the virus which causes covid-19 the disease.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a different virus ...Nigelb said:
Well it's another (small) piece of evidence in favour of the shut it down as long as you can option.rottenborough said:
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.
Clearly on that side of the argument the development of one or more vaccines is the best hope, but this is a suggestion that the virus can change into something less deadly over time. Only a suggestion, though.
It is not even (yet) peer-reviewed & its conclusions are very tentative even for SARS-Cov-2
So, a very, very small piece of positive evidence.0 -
Can you if you are not a US legal entity?CarlottaVance said:
More likely they'd go Chapter 11 like most US airlines will.david_herdson said:
This is just an observation but the collapse of a company doesn't necessarily mean the ocean crossing ends, does it? The ship could be sold by the administrators and a new company operate the service?IanB2 said:
Currently there is a flood of cancellations, with remaining passengers in denial as cruise company after company cancels their summer offerings. The industry is in real trouble, which is why I think someone will intervene. My exposure on carnival is, at worse, £1200, and I stand to gain onboard credit for the 2021 return trip on the QM2 to the US that I have booked for spring next year. Whatever else happens to the world, I don’t believe that such an iconic ocean crossing will ever be allowed to fold.Black_Rook said:
In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BraveIanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?
Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.0 -
They are all very valid points.ukpaul said:
The important questions....SandyRentool said:
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/12384256213756518400 -
NYT:
"Coronavirus Live Updates: Louisiana Official to Propose Delaying Primary as U.S. Aims to Speed Testing"
So it begins...0 -
Goodness, it was a joke.Benpointer said:
Most of these ships have had no cases of C-19 anyway so no need to treat them like a used nuclear reactor.Sandpit said:
If you bought it for a few hundred million dollars under the book value, the price of cleaning it won't matter too much. Having it run around somewhere hot with the air-conditioning off for a few days will probably do the job just fine!Nigelb said:
Imagine the cost of the deep clean, though.rcs1000 said:
If carnival is smart, though, they will have done a lot of borrowing from a mid sized bank in a marginal Congressional district.Sandpit said:
Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?rcs1000 said:
Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step inSandpit said:
Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.logical_song said:
Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.IanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
But, you're right. Let it go bust and sell the assets. Maybe it's time to see if we can pick up a cheap cruise liner
Albeit a feeble one.0 -
Turkish women's basketball still going strong.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?0 -
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.0 -
I would rather watch Season 2 of Westworld on repeat than have to watch the WNBA....algarkirk said:
Turkish women's basketball still going strong.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?0 -
That actually helps Sanders slightly, but he's so far behind now it won't matter.david_herdson said:Louisiana Primary postponed - or possibly, given time constraints, cancelled.
https://twitter.com/bradcesak/status/12384941340942336000 -
A tiny bit of 'wait and see' might be in order. This is a live experiment, and Boris's friends are not the only experimenters.ukpaul said:
The important questions....SandyRentool said:
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840
0 -
Crossover with the personalised US presidential 2020 election betting market, Trump vs Biden, rather than Rep vs Dem.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
Biden 2.26 / 2.28
Trump 2.26 / 2.31 -
Twitter seems to have woken up to the fact the government policy is herd immunity, it appears it is the fault of Brexit.0
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CROSSOVER -
Biden now favourite for WH2020.1 -
I can finally file Coronavirus under “because of Brexit”. Thank you!FrancisUrquhart said:Twitter seems to have woken up to the fact the government policy is herd immunity, it appears it is the fault of Brexit.
0 -
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
Once you start from there, do you want to spend lots of resources on testing the public or do you want to spend those resources testing medical workers and avoiding a hospital suddenly missing a big proportion of its doctors and nurses because the virus spread undetected amongst the staff who now need to be isolated for 2 weeks unable to treat those who need it?2 -
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?david_herdson said:
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.0 -
I see South Korea had another good day on the new cases front.0
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If Twitter doesn't like the policy it makes me more confident it's the right decision.FrancisUrquhart said:Twitter seems to have woken up to the fact the government policy is herd immunity, it appears it is the fault of Brexit.
2 -
Paris-Nice cycling although they have cancelled Sunday's stage into Nice.noneoftheabove said:
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport?Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Some Rugby League
Olympic Boxing qualifiers....0 -
Sell the DOW?CarlottaVance said:0 -
The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?0 -
Fascinating (and disturbing) thread on a Seattle hospital experience:
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238322250392039424
Interesting comment about Remdesivir (but it is hard to get hold of):
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/12383283649113456650 -
What's wrong with it?Benpointer said:The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?0 -
'"Do not just let this fire burn" - that's what World Health Organization director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned governments at the WHO daily press conference.
He urged countries to “find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of transmission”. Every case found reduced the risk of spread, he said.'
Were you listening Bozo???0 -
Even events like that lose their shine. I could be vaguely interested just to get a line on form into the Giro or Tour but couldnt really care who wins Paris-Nice itself.slade said:
Paris-Nice cycling although they have cancelled Sunday's stage into Nice.noneoftheabove said:
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport?Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Some Rugby League
Olympic Boxing qualifiers....0 -
Is there a link to that quote and, just for balance, has anybody on a par with our last SoS for Health or the WHO congratulated the govt on its wisdom and insight?SandyRentool said:
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.0 -
Indeed, but we need to be equally diligent in asking what are the second, third, fourth etc... order effects of economic shut down on public health, law and order, mental health, social cohesion and any number of other things that are vital to life for a social species.FrancisUrquhart said:
They are all very valid points.ukpaul said:
The important questions....SandyRentool said:
WHO making UK Government look stupid. And basically slapping them down.FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840
There are no easy, indeed, no certain, answers.2 -
might start up a PB fantasy league for that then?algarkirk said:
Turkish women's basketball still going strong.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?0 -
Going forward, I rate there being perhaps a 1 in 3 chance of the World Snooker Championship going ahead, and the horse racing calendar will probably go on in England and Wales until the point at which the Government elects to ban mass gatherings - so the Grand National might yet take place.noneoftheabove said:
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport?Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Some Rugby League
Olympic Boxing qualifiers....
You'd expect virtually everything else that hasn't yet been cancelled to go kaput within the next few days. In a team sport like rugby or football, it only takes one player in one team to come down with this thing in order to prompt a wave of self-isolation and completely wreck the fixture list.0 -
No, no. They are doing it all wrong. They don't have ENOUGH new cases.FrancisUrquhart said:I see South Korea had another good day on the new cases front.
2 -
No, she would be the new President if no new President and/or Vice-President has been elected. However, Congress also ends in January, and it's before the Presidential term ends, so if no new Congress has been elected, then I think the succession would devolve to the highest-ranking eligible Cabinet secretary. I think I'm right in saying that Cabinet secretaries serve at the pleasure of the President and that legally the outgoing secretaries' terms do not expire with the Presidency, rather they all resign pro forma when there's a change in President for the new Pres to make their picks.noneoftheabove said:
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?david_herdson said:
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.0 -
SandyRentool said:
'"Do not just let this fire burn" - that's what World Health Organization director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned governments at the WHO daily press conference.
He urged countries to “find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of transmission”. Every case found reduced the risk of spread, he said.'
Were you listening Bozo???
I cannot understand why you wouldn't test?
If you get it and have mild symptoms- you could be a lifeline to the elderly and weak in the future- and you wouldn't know....0 -
The Chinese did identify this back in February. Paper from Nature from 4th February on using Remdesivir and ChloroquinNigelb said:Fascinating (and disturbing) thread on a Seattle hospital experience:
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238322250392039424
Interesting comment about Remdesivir (but it is hard to get hold of):
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238328364911345665
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-00 -
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.Nigelb said:
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ?FrancisUrquhart said:
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.CarlottaVance said:
Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.0 -
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month.noneoftheabove said:
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?1 -
Well, for one thing it focuses on the number of cases - which we are no longer proactively testing for anyway, so that number is rubbish. For another there is no information about the numbers of critical cases or recoveries. There is no historical data about the rate of fatilities.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's wrong with it?Benpointer said:The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?
The Worldometer UK sub-site has a vastly superior UK dashboard but obviously I can't be sure they are using official data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/0 -
What evidence for 'much less likely after seven days' do they have ?paulyork64 said:
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.Nigelb said:
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ?FrancisUrquhart said:
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.CarlottaVance said:
Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.
I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't accord with the limited evidence I've seen.
Unless, of course, he means those people with a mild case of the virus (the seriously ill obviously not being in a state to go out again).
I've not seen any evidence published on that, and it is an interesting point.0 -
Might give Parkrun a miss tommorow, head off into the peaks perhaps...
0 -
You missed the last 2 important words off the Iranian announcement...SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
"and shot".0 -
Actually, I've screwed up there. If there'd been no November election then there'd be no House of Representatives. So not Pelosi.noneoftheabove said:
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?david_herdson said:
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.
In normal circumstances, the Speaker of the House is 2nd in line of succession, after the VP (who in this scenario wouldn't exist for the same reason there wouldn't be a president to inaugurate). There would, however, be a rump Senate as that's elected in thirds, so the presidency would devolve onto the third-in-line, the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
As the GOP is defending a huge number of seats this year, then if no election were held, the Dems would gain control by default, with a 33-30 majority (plus 2 caucusing independents making it 35-30 in reality). That would put Patrick Leahy into the White House.1 -
The assumption they are working from, as stated yesterday, is that there are ten times as many mild/undetected cases - so containment is that much harder, and building herd immunity is that much less dangerous.Nigelb said:
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month.noneoftheabove said:
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?0 -
SQ cancelling a raft of European flights to end-May:
https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/media-centre/200313bflightcanxtable.pdf0 -
I think we will have to go on to looking at the number of hospitalisations and deaths, but those are lagging indicators. By up to four weeks.Benpointer said:
Well, for one thing it focuses on the number of cases - which we are no longer proactively testing for anyway, so that number is rubbish. For another there is no information about the numbers of critical cases or recoveries. There is no historical data about the rate of fatilities.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's wrong with it?Benpointer said:The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?
The Worldometer UK sub-site has a vastly superior UK dashboard but obviously I can't be sure they are using official data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/0 -
It is quite possible that there isn't an option which, in normal times, would count as realistic. It's like asking what is realistic during the blitz. When we are in a long term post virus settled situation somewhere which is socially back to normal it can be discussed. For now various experiments are taking place. What no nation can do is try several experiments at once, as they involve opposed actions.Nigelb said:
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month.noneoftheabove said:
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?0 -
Why would they have new cases when they still have the restrictions in place? Wait until they remove the restrictions and then see what happens. Only then will you know what the right approach is.SandyRentool said:
No, no. They are doing it all wrong. They don't have ENOUGH new cases.FrancisUrquhart said:I see South Korea had another good day on the new cases front.
0 -
Who was posting about the stupid cruise ship that might or might not be going to the Bahamas the other day? Anyway, Sky reporting that - surprise surprise - it's now got five suspected Covid cases aboard.
Why the Government doesn't just instruct everyone not to get on these sodding things for the duration, God alone knows.0 -
It still says 10 deaths even though an 11th was announced in Scotland quite a while ago now.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's wrong with it?Benpointer said:The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?0 -
Apparently old Lufty-Hansa are in the deep shit too and asking the German government for cash.CarlottaVance said:0 -
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.felix said:
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?Beibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....0 -
How do they come up with that assumption ?LostPassword said:
The assumption they are working from, as stated yesterday, is that there are ten times as many mild/undetected cases - so containment is that much harder, and building herd immunity is that much less dangerous.Nigelb said:
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month.noneoftheabove said:
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
Did they explain ?
(I was doing other stuff, and simply didn't see the press conference.)0 -
The updates to it I believe are a day behind.Andy_JS said:
It still says 10 deaths even though an 11th was announced in Scotland quite a while ago now.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's wrong with it?Benpointer said:The HMG's coronavirus dashboard is a heap of sh*te
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Is there any other source of info on UK cases?
But now there isn't testing etc, it is all null and void anyway.0 -
Some people live on them though. They become tax resident somewhere if they get off, so they'd rather risk death than taxes.Black_Rook said:Who was posting about the stupid cruise ship that might or might not be going to the Bahamas the other day? Anyway, Sky reporting that - surprise surprise - it's now got five suspected Covid cases aboard.
Why the Government doesn't just instruct everyone not to get on these sodding things for the duration, God alone knows.0 -
Yes I can understand you anger. I would be furious too. It's not good enough.OllyT said:
Good on him for that but it doesn't quite gel with going ahead with a game against Madrid 48 hours ago.GideonWise said:Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
To continue our discussion from the last thread I am angry because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly and it will piss me off even more if infections grow in the northwest because of it.0 -
Reading that thread, it shows the danger of this herd immunity policy in that there is real uncertainty about best practice. Not just if a certain drug is effective, but also if common approaches to similar conditions are helpful or harmless e.g. claims of the use of steroids, caused issues in China, when normally the standard response, but in that thread saying it seems ok for us.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Chinese did identify this back in February. Paper from Nature from 4th February on using Remdesivir and ChloroquinNigelb said:Fascinating (and disturbing) thread on a Seattle hospital experience:
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238322250392039424
Interesting comment about Remdesivir (but it is hard to get hold of):
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238328364911345665
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-00 -
It is indeed quite possible.algarkirk said:
It is quite possible that there isn't an option which, in normal times, would count as realistic. It's like asking what is realistic during the blitz. When we are in a long term post virus settled situation somewhere which is socially back to normal it can be discussed. For now various experiments are taking place. What no nation can do is try several experiments at once, as they involve opposed actions.Nigelb said:
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month.noneoftheabove said:
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...FrancisUrquhart said:Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
I'm just interested in being clear about the choices being made, and things like the 'ten times as many mild undetected cases' appear to be guesses rather than evidence based.0 -
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried.
And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component.
So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.0 -
Why? Chuck Grassley is the President pro Tem and his current term doesn't end until 2022.david_herdson said:
Actually, I've screwed up there. If there'd been no November election then there'd be no House of Representatives. So not Pelosi.noneoftheabove said:
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?david_herdson said:
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.
In normal circumstances, the Speaker of the House is 2nd in line of succession, after the VP (who in this scenario wouldn't exist for the same reason there wouldn't be a president to inaugurate). There would, however, be a rump Senate as that's elected in thirds, so the presidency would devolve onto the third-in-line, the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
As the GOP is defending a huge number of seats this year, then if no election were held, the Dems would gain control by default, with a 33-30 majority (plus 2 caucusing independents making it 35-30 in reality). That would put Patrick Leahy into the White House.0 -
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.algarkirk said:
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.SandyRentool said:Compare and Contrast...
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
The UK invented epidemiology, it invented epidemiological mapping, it is still at the forefront of both globally, and our pioneers are revered in the US and globally.
That the UK is doing things differently from the rest of the world - particularly on something where we are at the forefront of scientific knowledge - does not mean it is wrong. It may turn out to be, but why would we go with the crowd if we are confident that our knowledge is better? Lemmings much?
4 -
Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed0 -
He offered no evidence and I dont think was questioned on it. I'm not saying hes right or wrong. I have no clue beyond what I hear and read. I got a cough/cold 10 days ago so under new rules would have had to isolate. No fever tho and a runny nose so I'm sure I'm still waiting to catch it.Nigelb said:
What evidence for 'much less likely after seven days' do they have ?paulyork64 said:
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.Nigelb said:
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ?FrancisUrquhart said:
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.CarlottaVance said:
Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.
I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't accord with the limited evidence I've seen.
Unless, of course, he means those people with a mild case of the virus (the seriously ill obviously not being in a state to go out again).
I've not seen any evidence published on that, and it is an interesting point.0 -
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.OldKingCole said:Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried.
And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component.
So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.0 -
Beautiful coast walk with the dog today. Saw a couple of people to give a distant nod towards, but otherwise zero virus risk.Pulpstar said:Might give Parkrun a miss tommorow, head off into the peaks perhaps...
0 -
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed1 -
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:Beibheirli_C said:
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.felix said:
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?Beibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus?
Well 55%
Badly 30%
Don't know 14%4 -
Indeed.FrancisUrquhart said:
Reading that thread, it shows the danger of this herd immunity policy in that there is real uncertainty about best practice. Not just if a certain drug is effective, but also if common approaches to similar conditions are helpful or harmless e.g. claims of the use of steroids, caused issues in China, when normally the standard response, but in that thread saying it seems ok for us.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Chinese did identify this back in February. Paper from Nature from 4th February on using Remdesivir and ChloroquinNigelb said:Fascinating (and disturbing) thread on a Seattle hospital experience:
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238322250392039424
Interesting comment about Remdesivir (but it is hard to get hold of):
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238328364911345665
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
It has been suggested that Actemra (a commonly available antibody drug) might be very effective in treating the sickest patients, but until ongoing clinical trials are finished, there's no way of knowing.
I doubt Remdesivir is going to be available in quantity any time soon, but Actemra certainly is.0 -
Thanks, another 79 year old!david_herdson said:
Actually, I've screwed up there. If there'd been no November election then there'd be no House of Representatives. So not Pelosi.noneoftheabove said:
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?david_herdson said:
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.rottenborough said:
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.
In normal circumstances, the Speaker of the House is 2nd in line of succession, after the VP (who in this scenario wouldn't exist for the same reason there wouldn't be a president to inaugurate). There would, however, be a rump Senate as that's elected in thirds, so the presidency would devolve onto the third-in-line, the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
As the GOP is defending a huge number of seats this year, then if no election were held, the Dems would gain control by default, with a 33-30 majority (plus 2 caucusing independents making it 35-30 in reality). That would put Patrick Leahy into the White House.0
