politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Republicans move drop below a 50% betting chance for W
Comments
-
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You are going to be exposed to this - the only question is when. Trying to make the virus extinct in humans without herd immunity (whether acquired by vaccine or having the disease) wont work.FF43 said:Re previous header topic.
The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.
That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.0 -
Do we think the Grand National will take place?FrancisUrquhart said:
Shit just got real.TheScreamingEagles said:The Masters is postponed.
0 -
No.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do we think the Grand National will take place?FrancisUrquhart said:
Shit just got real.TheScreamingEagles said:The Masters is postponed.
0 -
NoTheScreamingEagles said:
Do we think the Grand National will take place?FrancisUrquhart said:
Shit just got real.TheScreamingEagles said:The Masters is postponed.
0 -
0
-
What I am trying to get my head around is that not only does the government clearly not think there will be a vaccine in the next year, and that there won't be any real effective drugs to treat those with it. They also don't think that there will be any real development in "best practice" in the near term. If they did, they would be hoping to buy more months and hope that experiences from around the world would better inform when those who need hospital treatment need to be admitted, which patients stand a chance when in ICU etc.Malmesbury said:
You are going to be exposed to this - the only question is when. Trying to make the virus extinct in humans without herd immunity (whether acquired by vaccine or having the disease) wont work.FF43 said:Re previous header topic.
The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.
That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.
It does seem like they really don't think any of this will progress much at all this year or next.
I think the countries who are trying to depress this hope is that when it springs up again a) they are better prepared to deal with it and b) that 6 months of learning more about it, they will have better ability to minimise the death rate.0 -
Good on him for that but it doesn't quite gel with going ahead with a game against Madrid 48 hours ago.GideonWise said:Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
To continue our discussion from the last thread I am angry because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly and it will piss me off even more if infections grow in the northwest because of it.
0 -
Apart from Germany, of course, where they expect exactly that according to some random lady on TVAndy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-119567930 -
Banning Hawaiians pizzas as well.MarqueeMark said:
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
May elections postponed for 12 months0
-
Sky: Local Elections postponed0
-
Strongman.williamglenn said:Bolsonaro’s second test was negative.
https://twitter.com/lucasrohan/status/1238489198908317696?s=210 -
Elections postponed for 12 months.
Check this Ts and Cs.0 -
Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.1
-
It can't have got THAT bad?TheScreamingEagles said:
Banning Hawaiians pizzas as well.MarqueeMark said:
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a police state that is....0 -
We are going to find that Trump is also some genetic freak that is immune to this aren't we.kinabalu said:
Strongman.williamglenn said:Bolsonaro’s second test was negative.
https://twitter.com/lucasrohan/status/1238489198908317696?s=210 -
I am personally looking forward to more time watching my favourite Christmas movies....TheScreamingEagles said:
Banning Hawaiians pizzas as well.MarqueeMark said:
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
My wife needed to go to Urgent Care this morning. Blessedly quiet, bar the young woman having a row with staff who told her in no uncertain terms to leave NOW if she thought she had any symptoms.Floater said:I also understand people are STILL rocking up to A and E thinking they might have it (and they did ) and risking infecting many others - including NHS staff who we really need to protect.
A three part problem:
1. The guidance is counter-factual - don't go to get help if you are ill?
2. We tried ringing 111 yesterday evening, message advised of at least 1hr on hold and thats with repeated instructions for CV questions to go off the line
3. A reasonable percentage of the population are naturally stupid, and kept stupid by certain newspapers. A large part of the Number 10 / Boffins strategy is "use common sense". A lot of people don't have any.1 -
Give a politician to kick the can down the road - they always do... well, nearly always.FrancisUrquhart said:
What I am trying to get my head around is that not only does the government clearly not think there will be a vaccine in the next year, and that there won't be any real effective drugs to treat those with it. They also don't think that there will be any real development in "best practice" in the near term. If they did, they would be hoping to buy more months and hope that experiences from around the world would better inform when those who need hospital treatment need to be admitted, which patients stand a chance when in ICU etc.Malmesbury said:
You are going to be exposed to this - the only question is when. Trying to make the virus extinct in humans without herd immunity (whether acquired by vaccine or having the disease) wont work.FF43 said:Re previous header topic.
The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.
That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.
It does seem like they really don't think any of this will progress much at all this year or next.
I think the countries who are trying to depress this hope is that when it springs up again a) they are better prepared to deal with it and b) that 6 months of learning more about it, they will have better ability to minimise the death rate.0 -
I am really surprised they haven't deployed GE type strategy blasted across tv and social media.RochdalePioneers said:
My wife needed to go to Urgent Care this morning. Blessedly quiet, bar the young woman having a row with staff who told her in no uncertain terms to leave NOW if she thought she had any symptoms.Floater said:I also understand people are STILL rocking up to A and E thinking they might have it (and they did ) and risking infecting many others - including NHS staff who we really need to protect.
A three part problem:
1. The guidance is counter-factual - don't go to get help if you are ill?
2. We tried ringing 111 yesterday evening, message advised of at least 1hr on hold and thats with repeated instructions for CV questions to go off the line
3. A reasonable percentage of the population are naturally stupid, and kept stupid by certain newspapers. A large part of the Number 10 / Boffins strategy is "use common sense". A lot of people don't have any.0 -
Well contrary to what many say I think Trump looks robust and healthy for his age. So, no, I think it will be the electorate not a virus that does the job.FrancisUrquhart said:We are going to find that Trump is also some genetic freak that is immune to this aren't we.
0 -
But but but - won't they think of those of us expecting a big payout on Sadiq Khan?Big_G_NorthWales said:May elections postponed for 12 months
1 -
This is the perfect time to watch Die Hard.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am personally looking forward to more time watching my favourite Christmas movies....TheScreamingEagles said:
Banning Hawaiians pizzas as well.MarqueeMark said:
Closing down flights from the UK too?TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Maybe, maybe not. He now has 12 months to:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
1. Displace Bailey as the not-Khan candidate;
2. Pull Khan's own support down to something beatable.0 -
Sensible move on the elections.0
-
That fits with the model of 2-3 weeks left of gradual increase in "community transmission", 9 weeks of shit hitting fan, a month cool down.david_herdson said:0 -
Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
Not sure the club could have unilaterally called the match off, they will turn up and play unless they're told not to. If there is any blame it's with UEFA who organise the competition.OllyT said:
Good on him for that but it doesn't quite gel with going ahead with a game against Madrid 48 hours ago.GideonWise said:Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
To continue our discussion from the last thread I am angry because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly and it will piss me off even more if infections grow in the northwest because of it.0 -
Rory who?david_herdson said:
Maybe, maybe not. He now has 12 months to:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
1. Displace Bailey as the not-Khan candidate;
2. Pull Khan's own support down to something beatable.
I like the guy, I will vote for him, but his game plan can't seriously be the mayoralty.0 -
So long as it doesn't become a habit.Big_G_NorthWales said:May elections postponed for 12 months
0 -
I have reservations on both but I want Trump out every bit as much as you dokinabalu said:
Well contrary to what many say I think Trump looks robust and healthy for his age. So, no, I think it will be the electorate not a virus that does the job.FrancisUrquhart said:We are going to find that Trump is also some genetic freak that is immune to this aren't we.
Wanting and wishing it to happen does not make it happen unfortunately0 -
He has also done himself a lot of damage.david_herdson said:
Maybe, maybe not. He now has 12 months to:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
1. Displace Bailey as the not-Khan candidate;
2. Pull Khan's own support down to something beatable.
I see on his twitter feed that he is busy tweeting that epidemiology professors like Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London are wrong.
I hope to hear nothing more from Rory -- or Nigel Farage or Piers Morgan.3 -
It's just possible that Boris and friends have actually got it right. It fits the pattern of him being a lucky general.IanB2 said:
Just do you duty, and get infected. When the time is right.FF43 said:Re previous header topic.
The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.
That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.
1 -
More likely they'd go Chapter 11 like most US airlines will.david_herdson said:
This is just an observation but the collapse of a company doesn't necessarily mean the ocean crossing ends, does it? The ship could be sold by the administrators and a new company operate the service?IanB2 said:
Currently there is a flood of cancellations, with remaining passengers in denial as cruise company after company cancels their summer offerings. The industry is in real trouble, which is why I think someone will intervene. My exposure on carnival is, at worse, £1200, and I stand to gain onboard credit for the 2021 return trip on the QM2 to the US that I have booked for spring next year. Whatever else happens to the world, I don’t believe that such an iconic ocean crossing will ever be allowed to fold.Black_Rook said:
In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BraveIanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?
Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.0 -
As I understand it they could certainly have decided to play it behind closed doors like Uniited's game 24 hours laterSandpit said:
Not sure the club could have unilaterally called the match off, they will turn up and play unless they're told not to. If there is any blame it's with UEFA who organise the competition.OllyT said:
Good on him for that but it doesn't quite gel with going ahead with a game against Madrid 48 hours ago.GideonWise said:Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
To continue our discussion from the last thread I am angry because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly and it will piss me off even more if infections grow in the northwest because of it.0 -
Model for the futureRichard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
Just seen the locals are being postponed. I'm supposed to be standing down this year and have long promised my wife that she gets to see me after May.
Am I really that hard to get rid of? Awkward conversations this weekend. But elections divide us by their nature and we don't need that right now.0 -
Great!edmundintokyo said:Only 22 new coro-chan cases detected in Japan today
(Caveat: Testing is still a bit pants)
(Maybe)0 -
Strangely the mayoral elections in France are going ahead this weekend. Considering all the other measures announced I'm surprised they haven't postponed it.tpfkar said:Just seen the locals are being postponed. I'm supposed to be standing down this year and have long promised my wife that she gets to see me after May.
Am I really that hard to get rid of? Awkward conversations this weekend. But elections divide us by their nature and we don't need that right now.0 -
I thought he was pushing for urgent action?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
0 -
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?0 -
You can't run an entire university system on parties, bars, pubs and nightclubs alone. You have to have a semblance of a reason for being there or your parents might rumble you. And that would be the end of civilisation as we know it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Model for the futureRichard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.
2 -
Same with Soton, bar next week being cancelled completely.Richard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
-
All hail the Bear-Finder General.IanB2 said:Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:
And markets are already tanking again...0 -
Better long term plan awaited. It isn't governments or doctors that invent new viruses.Beibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
0 -
Closing of universities and schools in Spain has led to thoudands of families in the north and centre heading to the Costas in the south and west - result lockdowns in Alicante and part of Murcia as numbers of cases soar and spread. Who knew! We now have a state of emergency in the whole country. Everyone still sure that the UK has got this all wrong? 3 days ago there were very few cases overall in much of southern Spain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Model for the futureRichard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
They've obviously not seen the advice on joining hands.Nigelb said:0 -
After a quick swatch of the local supermarkets this afternoon, the one absolute prediction that I'll make about the current & ongoing crisis is that kitchen rolls are going to be seeing a lot of action to which they have so far been unaccustomed.3
-
Like I say, he now has 12 months to gain widespread media coverage.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Rory who?david_herdson said:
Maybe, maybe not. He now has 12 months to:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
1. Displace Bailey as the not-Khan candidate;
2. Pull Khan's own support down to something beatable.
I like the guy, I will vote for him, but his game plan can't seriously be the mayoralty.
I don't expect him to win but it's a more plausible route now.0 -
Institutions have a duty of care to their employees, so I don't see how they avoid making this kind of decision.Chameleon said:
Same with Soton, bar next week being cancelled completely.Richard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
Will be a bumper set of elections next May then with county council, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections toodavid_herdson said:0 -
You could presumably resign and trigger a by-election. However how wise that is might not be known.tpfkar said:Just seen the locals are being postponed. I'm supposed to be standing down this year and have long promised my wife that she gets to see me after May.
Am I really that hard to get rid of? Awkward conversations this weekend. But elections divide us by their nature and we don't need that right now.0 -
Going to be a much bigger contest next year.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Please can we get a market for Trump to get C-Virus? I’d give it a flutter0
-
I can see the public health officials in the UK will share the fate of Ignaz SemmelweisBeibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Semmelweis was right about the transmission of puerperal fever, but he was ridiculed by the grossly ignorant, dismissed from his job as Professor and died in a straitjacket in an asylum.
(His home is now a wonderful museum in Budapest).1 -
Disposable gloves included, I'm sure.Luckyguy1983 said:
They've obviously not seen the advice on joining hands.Nigelb said:
0 -
I think it's too early to make that call. When people like Jeremy Hunt - who must have been well-briefed on pandemic plans in the recent past - are expressing concern, I don't think we can give the experts a blank cheque.YBarddCwsc said:
He has also done himself a lot of damage.david_herdson said:
Maybe, maybe not. He now has 12 months to:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ooh, Rory Stewart will be FUMING.
1. Displace Bailey as the not-Khan candidate;
2. Pull Khan's own support down to something beatable.
I see on his twitter feed that he is busy tweeting that epidemiology professors like Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London are wrong.
I hope to hear nothing more from Rory -- or Nigel Farage or Piers Morgan.0 -
Query: if unis move to online teaching only, how does this stand with visa conditions for overseas students?Chameleon said:
Same with Soton, bar next week being cancelled completely.Richard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.
I know some universities already offer "blended learning" whereby students can take certain courses either face-to-face or online as part of a distance-learning option. That's useful for e.g. mature students with work or childcare responsibilities, or for people taking unusual subject combinations who would otherwise face a timetabling clash. In some cases there are limitations on the number of courses you can take online (unless you're doing a full-blown distance-learning degree, which may have different assessment rules and a slightly different-looking degree certificate), with a requirement on minimum percent of the degree credits being face-to-face. However, at every uni I know that offers this, overseas students are not allowed to take the online courses because it would breach education visa requirements over minimum contact hours for full-time study.
Are these rules going to be waived for the foreseeable future?0 -
I am pleased we aren't talking about a highly contentious argument about holding national elections.MarqueeMark said:
Going to be a much bigger contest next year.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Pressure from TV companies, no doubt.OllyT said:
As I understand it they could certainly have decided to play it behind closed doors like Uniited's game 24 hours laterSandpit said:
Not sure the club could have unilaterally called the match off, they will turn up and play unless they're told not to. If there is any blame it's with UEFA who organise the competition.OllyT said:
Good on him for that but it doesn't quite gel with going ahead with a game against Madrid 48 hours ago.GideonWise said:Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..
I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.
First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.
I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.
Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.
If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.
Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.
None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.
Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.
The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.
Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.
You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters
To continue our discussion from the last thread I am angry because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly and it will piss me off even more if infections grow in the northwest because of it.0 -
Best of three?kinabalu said:
Strongman.williamglenn said:Bolsonaro’s second test was negative.
https://twitter.com/lucasrohan/status/1238489198908317696?s=211 -
Good set of Arizona polls for Biden today but nationally he is not polling much better than Kerry was v Bush in early 2004 or Romney was v Obama in early 2012
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238476090135515139?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238476426564767745?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238474970310868992?s=200 -
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?Beibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?0 -
Buy shares in dyno rod pronto.Theuniondivvie said:After a quick swatch of the local supermarkets this afternoon, the one absolute prediction that I'll make about the current & ongoing crisis is that kitchen rolls are going to be seeing a lot of action to which they have so far been unaccustomed.
3 -
COVID weekly increases by nation between day 2 and 9 of each nation exceeding 1 case per million (i.e. comparing to where UK is today)
Spain 885% (just below 10x increase)
Italy 797%
France 639%
South Korea 627%
Germany 589%
UK 398%
China 353%
Japan 81%
USA on day 50 -
How do I long Pornhub?felix said:
Buy shares in dyno rod pronto.Theuniondivvie said:After a quick swatch of the local supermarkets this afternoon, the one absolute prediction that I'll make about the current & ongoing crisis is that kitchen rolls are going to be seeing a lot of action to which they have so far been unaccustomed.
1 -
0
-
Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.0 -
First death in Scotland.0
-
-
My GP surgery is going telephone consultations only as from Monday, operating a triage system. Its going to get messy isn't it?0
-
I have the same problem logging in with Chrome on my home PC, but I'm pretty sure doing 'Restore Default Settings' rectified it at one point. (My work laptop is fine however.)eadric said:Thanks for the advice on logging in to vanilla, then rejoining the main site, but it still doesn't work for me. Frustrating.
I do, however, accept that in the current circumstances, this is something of a second order problem.0 -
Local elections postponed for a year
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics0 -
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?Anabobazina said:
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If carnival is smart, though, they will have done a lot of borrowing from a mid sized bank in a marginal Congressional district.Sandpit said:
Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?rcs1000 said:
Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step inSandpit said:
Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.logical_song said:
Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.IanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
But, you're right. Let it go bust and sell the assets. Maybe it's time to see if we can pick up a cheap cruise liner1 -
Bill him for the cost of quarantining 150 peopleFloater said:WTF have our people being doing - they knew this was coming
Just heard there is a lack of PPE (including masks) at my local hospital.
I also understand people are STILL rocking up to A and E thinking they might have it (and they did ) and risking infecting many others - including NHS staff who we really need to protect.
But the worst story of recent days I heard was of a flight into Switzerland 150 passengers on board - on DISEMBARKATION passenger advises crew he has it. When asked why he travelled and put others at risk the answer was - If I said anything would not have been allowed to travel and I think Swiss healthcare best in world so wanted to get home.....
Shoot that fecker now.0 -
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.0 -
What I find weird about Trump hob knobbing with all these people. Normally when an emergency hits e.g. a chemical weapon went off, they would have a president in the bunker in 2s. Is he just ignoring all the advice, or have they told him he can't be seen to change his normal routine?
I am presuming old Winnie the Pooh over in China didn't spent his weeks having dinner with a loads on untested people.0 -
Lot of extra business for Dynorod then.Theuniondivvie said:After a quick swatch of the local supermarkets this afternoon, the one absolute prediction that I'll make about the current & ongoing crisis is that kitchen rolls are going to be seeing a lot of action to which they have so far been unaccustomed.
0 -
But 500,000 fewer voters.HYUFD said:
Will be a bumper set of elections next May then with county council, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections toodavid_herdson said:0 -
To repeat what I said this morning, I was shocked to find that a local GP surgery hadn't got any special plans to deal with vulnerable people who have to regularly attend for blood prick tests for ongoing health conditions.Floater said:WTF have our people being doing - they knew this was coming
Just heard there is a lack of PPE (including masks) at my local hospital.
I also understand people are STILL rocking up to A and E thinking they might have it (and they did ) and risking infecting many others - including NHS staff who we really need to protect.
If one person in that surgery gets it, you are putting a huge number of the individuals in danger.0 -
I didn't recheck but I understood that to be a UK figure. It being England would move the pain point (for the UK) up a bit, but there will be local variations anyway. Generally I expect the ICU pain point will be somewhere in the 20-50 cases per 100k range.DavidL said:
Thanks but when you say UK do you mean UK or PHE?Pro_Rata said:
Back of an envelope on ICUs:IshmaelZ said:
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.DavidL said:
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.alex_ said:What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
What we need are:
* the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs
* the number of ICUs available by area.
*the number discharged.
* the number of deaths (which we do get).
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free.
Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation).
So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people.
Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution)
So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress.
Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important.
Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head.
I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.0 -
Well it's another (small) piece of evidence in favour of the shut it down as long as you can option.rottenborough said:
and this means?Nigelb said:Discovery of a 382-nt deletion during the early evolution of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1
To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population, and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.
Clearly on that side of the argument the development of one or more vaccines is the best hope, but this is a suggestion that the virus can change into something less deadly over time. Only a suggestion, though.0 -
Meaningless at this stage now.HYUFD said:Good set of Arizona polls for Biden today but nationally he is not polling much better than Kerry was v Bush in early 2004 or Romney was v Obama in early 2012
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238476090135515139?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238476426564767745?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238474970310868992?s=20
Everything will be about the state of America in November. Who knows which way people will go over the virus and its impacts. So far Biden is having a far better emergency than Trump.0 -
Here's a wild thought, Trump is purposely making the pandemic worse so he can postpone the General election in Nov.YBarddCwsc said:I suspect Trump may have more to worry about than his poll ratings.
I wouldn't put it past him tbh.0 -
Nah, you can see it, he is shit scared and he knows he is basically powerless in that he can't just pull his usual B/S. America at this time needs a war time leader, what they have is a lying coward.nunu2 said:
Here's a wild thought, Trump is purposely making the pandemic worse so he can postpone the General election in Nov.YBarddCwsc said:I suspect Trump may have more to worry about than his poll ratings.
I wouldn't put it past him tbh.0 -
Gold cup not in BBC top 10 most read. It'd be the headline most years right now.0
-
Imagine the cost of the deep clean, though.rcs1000 said:
If carnival is smart, though, they will have done a lot of borrowing from a mid sized bank in a marginal Congressional district.Sandpit said:
Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?rcs1000 said:
Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step inSandpit said:
Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.logical_song said:
Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.IanB2 said:Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?
But, you're right. Let it go bust and sell the assets. Maybe it's time to see if we can pick up a cheap cruise liner0 -
Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.0 -
It's pretty much impossible in practice to postpone the election. They've held elections in the middle of wars before, including a civil war.nunu2 said:
Here's a wild thought, Trump is purposely making the pandemic worse so he can postpone the General election in Nov.YBarddCwsc said:I suspect Trump may have more to worry about than his poll ratings.
I wouldn't put it past him tbh.0 -
We've not yet admitted that's our plan but I've spent this week making sure we can implement it without any fuss.Richard_Tyndall said:Nottingham University has just sent all their students an email stating that from 23rd March there will be no face to face lectures, seminars or tutorials. Everything will be moving online and the next week will be transition to test everything out.
The University will remain open but all teaching will be online until further notice.0 -
VIPs and VVIPs failing to change their behaviour seems to be common across the world, judging by the number of senior politicians who've gone down with this thing (China being the apparent exception, though could that just be because their epicentre was out in the provinces rather than the capital?).FrancisUrquhart said:What I find weird about Trump hob knobbing with all these people. Normally when an emergency hits e.g. a chemical weapon went off, they would have a president in the bunker in 2s. Is he just ignoring all the advice, or have they told him he can't be seen to change his normal routine?
I am presuming old Winnie the Pooh over in China didn't spent his weeks having dinner with a loads on untested people.
It still strikes me as odd. Sensible risk-management recognises different groups of people should be put under different levels of protection and your senior decision-makers and their top advisers ought to be a priority to keep safe during a crisis... particularly since they're also a high-risk group, bearing in mind how many people politicians meet in a typical week.
I wonder if we tend to forget how it isn't just their formal, legal powers that political leaders possess, but a lot of their influence comes through the soft power associated with their networks. Meeting other senior people (from other countries, from business, from culture/arts/media or academia, whatever) is an important part of what they do, maybe even in a crisis. Though I don't get why you wouldn't be switching a lot of that to teleconference/phone, cutting out a lot of the low-priority, non-urgent stuff entirely (local community groups/campaigns visiting parliament, "young leaders", that kind of thing - not that they're not worthy, just now's not the time) and you definitely don't want school trips or tourist groups trotting round your centres of power (which in Westminster seemed to be the case even a few days ago).1
Bravo 
