politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Republicans move drop below a 50% betting chance for W

Second?!

Imagine if you'd been someone banging on about the Dems being above evens in this market for the last couple of weeks and that being incredible value. You'd feel pretty smug about now.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Imagine if you'd been someone banging on about the Dems being above evens in this market for the last couple of weeks and that being incredible value. You'd feel pretty smug about now.

PB likes its tipsters to display legendary modesty.

Imagine.

Latest

Trump very concerned about the people he has come in contact with who have covid 19

Typical Trump, concerned for himself not those with the virus

He is quite the most malign head of state the US has ever seen

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Latest

Trump very concerned about the people he has come in contact with who have covid 19

Typical Trump, concerned for himself not those with the virus

He is quite the most malign head of state the US has ever seen

Well the hot mic of him getting really annoyed about a pen mark before addressing the nation and then the weird reaction to it ending, it was more somebody doing a stint on QVC than talking to 300m to tell them 100,000s of you are going to die.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Personally I think Trump is now more fecked than a stepmom on pornhub.

https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1238454333370445826?s=21

The Rise and Fall of the USA.

With five chapters devoted to The Mad King.

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Really? I would have thought that industry is simple done.

Since it's so close to the election it must be tempting for Trump and Pence to both stand down for health reasons and let Nancy Pelosi deal with the whole mess.

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?

IshmaelZ said:

DavidL said:

alex_ said:

What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?

We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.

I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.

What we need are:
* the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs
* the number of ICUs available by area.
*the number discharged.
* the number of deaths (which we do get).

ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.

Back of an envelope on ICUs:

UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free.
Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation).
So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people.
Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution)
So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress.
Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important.
Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head.
I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

New slogan: "We own big boats, but we don't know why".

Pulpstar said:

If Trump is worried why doesn't he get himself tested ?

Don't forget doctors were amazed at how much Trump knew about the virus. Maybe he's diagnosed himself.

Gov't intervention to support the cruise industry ?!?!

It's a bold call.

IanB2 said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Really? I would have thought that industry is simple done.

The demand is such, not to mention the value of the assets, that my hunch is governments will be forced to intervene.

The assets will be leased, it will end up with the banks taking the hit on the business failures.

Look out for some big boats up for auction in a couple of years!

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

New slogan: "We own big boats, but we don't know why".

I know its pedantic but they are 'ships'

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Really? I would have thought that industry is simple done.

The demand is such, not to mention the value of the assets, that my hunch is governments will be forced to intervene.

The assets will be leased, it will end up with the banks taking the hit on the business failures.

Look out for some big boats up for auction in a couple of years!

Yes, well, then treat it as an illustration of how winning a huge amount from the turmoil this last fortnight clouds a punter’s judgement.

I see the markets are, after a morning of recovery, now sinking again.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Brave

In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.

Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?

Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.

logical_song said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?

Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.

Reports that Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19.

Given that he (and at least one other member of his administration / staff who also had the virus) met Trump only days ago, there has to be a significant possibility that the president is now infected - and, if so, such an infection could spread through the administration quite rapidly given Trump's clear lack of concern about it.

GideonWise said:

Trump is going to be absolutely hated come election time.

The Democrats will sweep him away.

The problem is, will the USA actually get an election or will he go full on tyrant before then?

The system of checks and balances means no he won't. He would be removed from office if he tried by politicians on both sides.

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Brave

In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.

Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?

Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.

Currently there is a flood of cancellations, with remaining passengers in denial as cruise company after company cancels their summer offerings. The industry is in real trouble, which is why I think someone will intervene. My exposure on carnival is, at worse, £1200, and I stand to gain onboard credit for the 2021 return trip on the QM2 to the US that I have booked for spring next year. Whatever else happens to the world, I don’t believe that such an iconic ocean crossing will ever be allowed to fold.

p...

Urgent US Press conference at 7pm our time?

GideonWise said:

Trump is going to be absolutely hated come election time.

The Democrats will sweep him away.

The problem is, will the USA actually get an election or will he go full on tyrant before then?

How does he do that? Tyrants need an army at their back and call to enforce their will. Trump doesn't have one.

The presidential election is constitutionally mandated and arranged by the states, not the federal government. I don't see how he could stop it even if he wanted to (though wanting to stop it would be an admission that he'd lose, and I'm not sure he'd ever accept that possibility anyway).

Only 22 new coro-chan cases detected in Japan today, was holding steady at 50 all week. It really seems like we may have a solution here that doesn't require welding, dystopian surveillance or even particularly competent administration, and avoids both destroying the economy and killing your parents.

(Caveat: Testing is still a bit pants)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

New slogan: "We own big boats, but we don't know why".

I know its pedantic but they are 'ships'

Correct.

A boat can be put on a ship.

That’s all people need to know.

GideonWise said:

david_herdson said:

Reports that Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19.

Given that he (and at least one other member of his administration / staff who also had the virus) met Trump only days ago, there has to be a significant possibility that the president is now infected - and, if so, such an infection could spread through the administration quite rapidly given Trump's clear lack of concern about it.

To be fair to Trump. He's always been a fan of washing his little hands.

He might have had a lucky escape.

Won't matter if he's within range of ingesting the virus via proximity.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

New slogan: "We own big boats, but we don't know why".

I know its pedantic but they are 'ships'

Yes, but it doesn't work with the song reference I was (trying (and apparently failing)) to make.

Also, if we're doing this, then some of them are "liners".

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

I think that you are looking at the written down value of the assets as floating hotels, hostels, hospitals, pretty much anything beginning with H really. Their business model is toast, burnt black toast.

Re previous header topic.

The government's main aims for managing the epidemic appear to be (1) achieve 60% infection rate and herd immunity in a relatively short timeframe; (2) keep demand on hospital ICUs relatively manageable. That being the case, keeping schools open and holding large sporting events makes a lot of sense. Young and fit people will merrily and efficiently infect each other, without hopefully too much damage. While they will pass on secondary infections to older and less well people, the mix of vulnerable to healthy victims is relatively smaller than dragging it out.

That doesn't necessarily sit with ordinary people's agendas of not getting infected in the first place, and we would rather not be part of some nationwide lab experiment, thank-you very much.

Endillion said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

New slogan: "We own big boats, but we don't know why".

I know its pedantic but they are 'ships'

Yes, but it doesn't work with the song reference I was (trying (and apparently failing)) to make.

Also, if we're doing this, then some of them are "liners".

This song reference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDOMWK2spIw

The mortality rate in NW Europe remains between 0.4 and 0.5. Encouraging news.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0

david_herdson said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Brave

In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.

Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?

Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.

That will probably depend on the insurance industry. With the advice being against travel, policies may not now cover protection against illness.

As far as I am aware, no-one has said this yet.

All existing policies will still cover what they covered at time of purchase. Aviva has announced that travel disruption due to Covid-19 won't be covered for new policies, since it's no longer a risk; more of a guarantee (and therefore uninsureable). As I understand it, there is no impact to coverage for sickness whilst abroad.

LV= has withdrawn from the market altogether for the time being. A colleague has informed me that SportsDirect (no, not that one AFAIK) has also put in a Covid-19 exclusion, but I'm not sure if that's just disruption, or sickness as well.

The above is not advice; always read the small print to check coverage before purchasing, etc.

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Brave

In the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.

Although, that much said, cruises are favoured by oldies and they are typically creatures of habit. Given that the Government has only advised, rather than ordered, older people not to go on cruises, how many do we think will actually take the advice?

Indeed, it would be fascinating to know how many people are still booking to go on the blessed things even now.

Currently there is a flood of cancellations, with remaining passengers in denial as cruise company after company cancels their summer offerings. The industry is in real trouble, which is why I think someone will intervene. My exposure on carnival is, at worse, £1200, and I stand to gain onboard credit for the 2021 return trip on the QM2 to the US that I have booked for spring next year. Whatever else happens to the world, I don’t believe that such an iconic ocean crossing will ever be allowed to fold.

This is just an observation but the collapse of a company doesn't necessarily mean the ocean crossing ends, does it? The ship could be sold by the administrators and a new company operate the service?

There will always be a demand for the transatlantic crossing but fewer ships

eristdoof said:

edmundintokyo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Personally, I think cruising for the foreseeable future is going to be about as popular as it was after the Titanic disaster.

How fast could they turn the ships into hospitals?

They turned the QE II into a troop carrier ship within one week at the start of the Falklands War.

And of course the turned the QM and QE into troop carriers in WW2 to bring the Yanks across the Atlantic. They were so fast the subs couldn't catch them and they sailed outside the convoy system

Six Nations: Wales v Scotland off because of coronavirus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51853907

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Carnival is a US company that owns Cunard, P&O Cruises and Princess Cruises (as in Grand and Diamond) amongst others.
It is a great shame that they have been particularly badly hit, but why would they qualify for state aid - and which state would that be?

Despite being a US company, there's very few Americans employed by them. Almost all of the onboard staff are from the third world. No government is going to bail them out.

Carnival owes $10bn (those ships don't come cheap), so it's entirely possible there will be a lot of pressure on governments to step in

Auction off the assets for $5bn, and the other $5bn is the risk the bank took in advancing the money in the first place. You're not suggesting that failing business models should be propped up by governments, surely?

Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..


I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.

First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.

I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.

Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.

If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.

Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.

None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.

Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.

The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.

Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.

You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters

The Masters is postponed.

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1238462709773078529

Ah, the perfect tonic for the cat lovers on PB (of which I am one). .

eristdoof said:

edmundintokyo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

Counterintuitively, given all my previous posts, I have bought into Carnival shares. If any industry is going to be first in line for state aid, it’s going to be the cruising industry, and the shares are now down to almost a quarter of their value a few years back.

Personally, I think cruising for the foreseeable future is going to be about as popular as it was after the Titanic disaster.

How fast could they turn the ships into hospitals?

They turned the QE II into a troop carrier ship within one week at the start of the Falklands War.

Presumably they spent that week taking out anything that squaddies could break or nick.....

GideonWise said:

Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..


I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.

First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.

I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.

Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.

If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.

Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.

None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.

Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.

The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.

Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.

You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters

That man is absolute class.

Klopp for SPOTY a possibility ?

DavidL said:

GideonWise said:

Klopp didn't give a toss about that game on Tuesday. He knew what was going on..


I don’t think this is a moment where the thoughts of a football manager should be important, but I understand for our supporters they will want to hear from the team and I will front that.

First and foremost, all of us have to do whatever we can to protect one another. In society I mean. This should be the case all the time in life, but in this moment I think it matters more than ever.

I’ve said before that football always seems the most important of the least important things. Today, football and football matches really aren’t important at all.

Of course, we don’t want to play in front of an empty stadium and we don’t want games or competitions suspended, but if doing so helps one individual stay healthy - just one - we do it no questions asked.

If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.

Today’s decision and announcement is being implemented with the motive of keeping people safe. Because of that we support it completely. We have seen members of teams we compete against become ill. This virus has shown that being involved in football offers no immunity. To our rival clubs and individuals who are affected and to those who later will become so, you are in our thoughts and prayers.

None of us know in this moment what the final outcome will be, but as a team we have to have belief that the authorities make decisions based on sound judgement and morality.

Yes, I am the manager of this team and club and therefore carry a leadership responsibility with regards to our future on the pitch. But I think in the present moment, with so many people around our city, the region, the country and the world facing anxiety and uncertainty, it would be entirely wrong to speak about anything other than advising people to follow expert advice and look after themselves and each other.

The message from the team to our supporters is only about your well-being. Put your health first. Don’t take any risk. Think about the vulnerable in our society and act where possible with compassion for them.

Please look after yourselves and look out for each other.

You’ll Never Walk Alone,
Jürgen

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/390397-jurgen-klopp-message-to-supporters

That man is absolute class.

He is indeed

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1238485147672068099

Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?

eadric said:

I still can't use the Chrome version of PB. Apologies for the repetition, but someone suggested a fix for this. What was it?

Go to the Vanilla page https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8520/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-trump-s-republicans-move-drop-below-a-50-betting-chance-for-w#latest in Chrome, then log in from there. Once logged into Vanilla the main page should work normally.

The bit that’s been broken, is the ability to log into the Vanilla comments system from the “third-party” main PB page.

Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:


"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.

Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793

I think I have just found the next president of the United States....YouTube just served up some guy who lives in the wilderness out of his mini-van and spends his days not interacting with anybody hiking the trails.

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1238485147672068099

Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?

And markets are already tanking again...