politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Warnings – What might be the signals that all is not wel
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I sympathise with your predicament, for I am falling into it myself. This whole business is only just getting started and I'm already fretting over the fate of my asthmatic husband, my ageing parents (one recently recovered from cancer, the other in the early stages of COPD) and my vulnerable, chronically ill work colleague. God alone knows what sort of state I and everybody else will be in a couple of months down the line.DavidL said:
I am sure you are right that it is healthy to do so but I am finding I can’t. My work has not dried up, quite the reverse actually, but I am finding it increasingly hard to concentrate on it. We are seeing a disaster unfolding before our eyes in real time. Our government thinks that the right thing to do is not to even try to stop it. They may be right, they may be catastrophically wrong. Either way several people we know or even ourselves are going to die as a consequence. I am obsessed, I don’t deny it. Best wishes to you and yours.Cyclefree said:
@DavidL: I am at higher risk than some because of my health issue, I am very worried about what this will do to my daughter’s business and to my sons searching for employment. I have over 30 cousins, spouses, children and aunts and uncles in Italy. My own work has dried up for the moment.DavidL said:I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
So yes this is very worrying indeed. But I am not going to dwell on it every moment of my waking day.
But while semi-self-isolated up here in deepest rural Cumbria I am reading and thinking and writing about other things. Because we can both walk and chew gum at the same time, right?2 -
The key word there is “preventable”. If our government is right it’s not and Trump’s callous arrogance and incompetence will have made very little difference.CarlottaVance said:0 -
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As a man who backed the Dems at 2.5 ( and lots of other numbers over evens) I am pleasedAndy_JS said:Winning party, 2020 US presidential election:
Dem 1.99 / 2
Rep 2 / 2.04
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1289883481 -
Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??0 -
Given most will not be indebted as the UK , they can borrow some money to get over the worst and hardly notice it.alex_ said:
What’s going on in Denmark? And how are all these countries going to pay for this? Placing a lot of reliance on the resilience of the Euro to public debt.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Newsnight just had a graphic showing the measures taken by various countries - UK had taken none.Andy_JS said:
The difference in approach between the UK and a country like Belgium is rather worrying. They can't both be right.Theuniondivvie said:Fuxake, this is serious.
https://twitter.com/LorcanRK/status/1238219328031465476?s=20
Edit - found it on twitter
https://twitter.com/andre_spicer/status/12382412246975651850 -
Connections with Wuhan .Casino_Royale said:Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??0 -
Yes, it occurred to me that the main problem the US has is lack of information on which to make decisions as to the best timing for the next steps. If they were to follow a course similar to ours, they haven’t otherwise lost anything through allowing the virus to spread so far, if by incompetence rather than intent.DavidL said:
The key word there is “preventable”. If our government is right it’s not and Trump’s callous arrogance and incompetence will have made very little difference.CarlottaVance said:
The catch, I suspect, is that the US healthcare and political system isn’t set up to provide the same sort of co-ordinated response that we are attempting.0 -
Getting the train is easily the riskiest thing I’m doing now.
Fellow commuters are now looking at anyone who sniffs, coughs or sneezes (and there are still - remarkably - several people in each carriage who are going in despite this) like they’ve exposed themselves in public.
Of course, they don’t do anything. Very occasionally someone nervous in a fantastically British way pretends it’s their stop or that they’re going to the toilet and then doesn’t come back to the same seat, shifting carriage.0 -
Just bad luck that there is where it started and spread unrecognised for a bit. Lombardia is the most prosperous bit of Italy and has excellent health facilities. The age profile isn't great, but so is much of Europe. Germany's is worse.Casino_Royale said:Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??
There are a lot of Chinese migrant workers in those designer factories, often undocumented. That is probably where patient zero was.0 -
Or maybe just one of the staff passed it on.FrancisUrquhart said:They are reporting that 2 patients in a secure mental facilities in Washington State have it...So they will clearly have had limited exposure to the outside world.
It literally must be absolutely everywhere in that state.0 -
Simple as that? Perhaps you’re right.Foxy said:
Just bad luck that there is where it started and spread unrecognised for a bit. Lombardia is the most prosperous bit of Italy and has excellent health facilities. The age profile isn't great, but so is much of Europe. Germany's is worse.Casino_Royale said:Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??0 -
Just watching Question Time - they should have had Whitty on to go up against Ashton.0
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depends on your definition of "worse"IanB2 said:
A powerful argument with a lot of validity.CarlottaVance said:On topic:
People feeling that they are no longer top dog, as they should be
Sir, Your pages overflow with predictions of disaster brought on by the Brexit/Trump axis. Leaving aside the depressing and repetitive pointlessness of this mass guesswork, its underlying assumption — that things were better when People Like Us were in charge — is at best dubious, at worst delusional. Under PLU rule, we have two failed wars and the Middle East in flames, China expansionist, Europe enfeebled, America ineffective and Russia resurgent. At home, we have banking crises, stagnant median incomes, uncontrolled borders, record indebtedness, profiteering by the “professional” classes, and general social polarisation. This is the Eden from which the rude and licentious electorates have expelled us?
Face it. We FT readers had our decades in charge and we blew it for everyone but us. Time for us to do what we’ve been telling the rest of them to do for years, and suck it up. Or go forth and earn the respect that regains power.
https://www.ft.com/content/bafd65be-c22d-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354
History however suggests that this is precisely how people end up with something considerably worse.0 -
Indeed. My risk of catching anything from my adoring fans wanting to shake hands and have a selfie are, er, close to zero.IanB2 said:
The second point is important and one that a lot of people are overlooking in commenting on Italy. Italy has one province going on Wuhan and the rest of the country like the UK. Using Italy-wide statistics as a projection for other countries could be misleading.tlg86 said:A few observations:
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.
On the last point, I suspect it’s mostly that we tend to hear of any famous people and they get more coverage. But they also lead less routine lives and therefore encounter more risk, I guess. The same as politicians.
Make that zero.0 -
And all so that your £2k Prada handbag can have “made in Italy” on it....Foxy said:
Just bad luck that there is where it started and spread unrecognised for a bit. Lombardia is the most prosperous bit of Italy and has excellent health facilities. The age profile isn't great, but so is much of Europe. Germany's is worse.Casino_Royale said:Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??
There are a lot of Chinese migrant workers in those designer factories, often undocumented. That is probably where patient zero was.0 -
Few people will be worrying or caring about the finances of football clubs or their overpaid players.MikeL said:Reason for Liverpool to be hopeful - and surprise, surprise it's going to boil down to money.
If you wipe the season and there is no final league table with final league positions then there is no basis for awarding any prize money (as there is no "result").
No prize money would mean all TV broadcasting revenue would have to be divided equally between all PL clubs. Now it's not just Liverpool - do you think all the other big clubs will be happy with that? It would cost them all tens of millions each - on top of any amount the PL as a whole may lose if refunds have to be paid to broadcasters re the rights fees for games not played.
So it's going to be in an awful lot of clubs best interests that there is a final league table, not just Liverpool's.
Now how that table is determined will be open to debate. Maybe finish the season in July/August and start next season late? Or just play a few more rounds (eg two or three) in August and say it'll be a 32 game season? Or something else? But just wiping the whole season most likely creates even more problems.2 -
I think there are several factors in play in Lombardy. A lot down to luck. It probably hit and got itself established at a time when people were largely unconcerned about the virus and weren’t taking any prevention measures (whereas other countries have seen what’s happened and begun to take it more seriously). It also perhaps was lucky in that it jumped into the right people at the right time, perhaps people more able to be superspreaders? And it was just able to consolidate quickly.
Although I don’t have many statistics, I think I’m right in saying that the Italian population has the highest church attendance in Europe and the age profile of those attending will be skewed to more at risk groups. That could have “helped”.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: well, on the plus side, my bet on Hamilton scoring at under 21 races this season is looking pretty tasty right now.
[I'm aware it may well be voided].1 -
And the region is notoriously dank and foggy in winter, cold and humid being ideal conditions for flu, at least.Foxy said:
Just bad luck that there is where it started and spread unrecognised for a bit. Lombardia is the most prosperous bit of Italy and has excellent health facilities. The age profile isn't great, but so is much of Europe. Germany's is worse.Casino_Royale said:Has anyone got any working hypothesis as to why things are materially worse in Italy?
Politics? Central government? Culture? Age profile? Mutations? Healthcare system?
Or none of the above and MoE??
There are a lot of Chinese migrant workers in those designer factories, often undocumented. That is probably where patient zero was.1 -
Likewise. Always difficult to find the right words at such a time.Casino_Royale said:Just caught up on this thread overnight.
My very best wishes to @SouthamObserver and his wife.0 -
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
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Best wishes to you and your wife, Southam.SouthamObserver said:Mother-in-law died this evening, not of the virus, just old age - she was 92. She went peacefully. Her last words were “That’s lovely”, as my wife tucked her up in bed. She then fell into her last sleep. It’s been the most extraordinary year. I have seen up close what I already knew: my wife is an extraordinary woman with unlimited resources of selfless love. What she gave her Mum over these last 15 months is as close to holy as I will ever know.
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I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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Who are these famous people, a hack actor and a football manager, you are easily impressed.tlg86 said:A few observations:
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.0 -
A couple of weeks? These countries are shutting things down for months.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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I appreciate that, but Ashton is a gob shite - the BBC needed to have someone who could call him out - Barclay played it with a straight bat.alex_ said:
The man has to do some work and rest at some point. He can't appear on every media outlet constantly as a talking head.tlg86 said:Just watching Question Time - they should have had Whitty on to go up against Ashton.
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Reading about the lock down conditions in many countries, you are not allowed to even leave the house without good reason. So bang goes the "go out for a walk" idea.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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I'm wondering if the fact that the North is Italy's most prosperous region helpednumbertwelve said:I think there are several factors in play in Lombardy. A lot down to luck. It probably hit and got itself established at a time when people were largely unconcerned about the virus and weren’t taking any prevention measures (whereas other countries have seen what’s happened and begun to take it more seriously). It also perhaps was lucky in that it jumped into the right people at the right time, perhaps people more able to be superspreaders? And it was just able to consolidate quickly.
Although I don’t have many statistics, I think I’m right in saying that the Italian population has the highest church attendance in Europe and the age profile of those attending will be skewed to more at risk groups. That could have “helped”.
Lots of business travellers going to and from Milan. Maybe enough of a concentration to set local transmission going. Although I'm at a bit of a loss to understand why something similar didn't happen in London for example, which would also have a larger Chinese community0 -
Someone has to carry the torch while a certain PB’er is hungover.malcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
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That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.IanB2 said:
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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I think I want to go on the lash with @malcolmg0
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Do they not interact outside of school hours anyway ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
What the policy on school closures almost certainly does is ensure that most primary school teachers in the country will contract the virus.
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Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html0 -
Yes and it will be the F**kwits mentioned that get special treatment whilst public left to rot.Nigelb said:
There is no private testing in the UK; it’s all being done centrally.TGOHF666 said:Footballers, actors , politicians - seems like the rich are getting private testing ?
Won’t be a surprise when many more of the elites test positive. Meanwhile the proles may never know they had it.
It is possible some get preferential access, of course.0 -
He said “famous”, not famous.malcolmg said:
Who are these famous people, a hack actor and a football manager, you are easily impressed.tlg86 said:A few observations:
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.
Anyway, you appear to know at least their professions, so they do have a certain amount of public recognition.
Morning, malcolm.
I understand and share your mood.0 -
Anyway, what everyone really wants in these dark days is some Brexit news:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/12383672084070113350 -
This Ashton bloke seems to think we should have been acting four to five weeks ago. I'd argue we should have shut the borders back in January and shut ourselves off from the outside world - but I doubt that would have gone down well with those now criticising the government's response.1
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Still baffled by the idea of closing schools - maybe some benefit for older children who don't need parental supervision but surely forcing large numbers of parents off work is crazy at this time - Even worse to expect grandparents to look after children given the health risks.2
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Don't over-egg the pudding. The monkeys were expecting food from tourists, including Thais. It's a recognised festival. Thai schools are closed, but that's because they would be anyway. The International school my grandchildren attend is still open.Alanbrooke said:
Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html
Gather the situation in China is significantly improving.0 -
We should know in less than two weeks. If the death rate spikes in areas where they closed the schools but not the offices then it was a bad call.felix said:Still baffled by the idea of closing schools - maybe some benefit for older children who don't need parental supervision but surely forcing large numbers of parents off work is crazy at this time - Even worse to expect grandparents to look after children given the health risks.
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In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.alex_ said:
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.IanB2 said:
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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These notes someone took at a very recent conference of US experts may be of interest:
https://t.co/dwBCbcX3b4?amp=10 -
Government: We as a nation are moving to the delay phase
Questioner: What does that mean?
Government: As of now we are doing absolutely nothing, this will delay things.0 -
Schools, particularly primaries, are an excellent vector for viruses, with several hundred individuals with little notion of personal space or hygiene interacting in a relatively confined area.felix said:Still baffled by the idea of closing schools - maybe some benefit for older children who don't need parental supervision but surely forcing large numbers of parents off work is crazy at this time - Even worse to expect grandparents to look after children given the health risks.
Keeping them open effectively says that you’ve decided to let the virus rip.
Teachers will be particularly delighted with the quick change in the law to limit restrictions on class sizes....0 -
And that is worse than giving it to elderly relatives?Nigelb said:
Do they not interact outside of school hours anyway ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
What the policy on school closures almost certainly does is ensure that most primary school teachers in the country will contract the virus.0 -
Possibly but a month does not sound any worse. Look at some of those hostages who had years without any facilities, books , etc, most managed to get back to normal life. It seems hard from onerous given the facilities people have at home nowadays, unlimited access to books, media , TV, films etc. Hard not to be able to find something to do to keep you occupied.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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And who is to look after them at home?Nigelb said:
Schools, particularly primaries, are an excellent vector for viruses, with several hundred individuals with little notion of personal space or hygiene interacting in a relatively confined area.felix said:Still baffled by the idea of closing schools - maybe some benefit for older children who don't need parental supervision but surely forcing large numbers of parents off work is crazy at this time - Even worse to expect grandparents to look after children given the health risks.
Keeping them open effectively says that you’ve decided to let the virus rip.
Teachers will be particularly delighted with the quick change in the law to limit restrictions on class sizes....0 -
So what is going to happen over the Easter holiday ?felix said:
And that is worse than giving it to elderly relatives?Nigelb said:
Do they not interact outside of school hours anyway ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
What the policy on school closures almost certainly does is ensure that most primary school teachers in the country will contract the virus.
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Alanbrooke said:
Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html
, how are you Alan. Is your wife likely to be involved in latest cull ( Not Coronovirus just in case any of our resident snowflakes think I am being evil ) at work. 0 -
Belgium doesn't really have pub culture like the UK does. Socialising at home is more common.alex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
Laatste Minuut on the Rue d'Aerschot outside the Gare du Nord in Bruxelles was always a magnificently squalid dive. It is flanked on either side with windows containing emaciated and immiserated whores while the gutter foams with the feculent piss of taxi drivers.
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Casino it would be a good sessionCasino_Royale said:I think I want to go on the lash with @malcolmg
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Let’s make it happen next time you’re in Alresford!malcolmg said:
Casino it would be a good sessionCasino_Royale said:I think I want to go on the lash with @malcolmg
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People know about those and have time to plan. Are you for real?Nigelb said:
So what is going to happen over the Easter holiday ?felix said:
And that is worse than giving it to elderly relatives?Nigelb said:
Do they not interact outside of school hours anyway ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
What the policy on school closures almost certainly does is ensure that most primary school teachers in the country will contract the virus.0 -
OKC, come on it was a brilliant joke, made me laugh anyway.OldKingCole said:
Don't over-egg the pudding. The monkeys were expecting food from tourists, including Thais. It's a recognised festival. Thai schools are closed, but that's because they would be anyway. The International school my grandchildren attend is still open.Alanbrooke said:
Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html
Gather the situation in China is significantly improving.0 -
shes gone for an EOI but not sure if shell be allowed to go as her area is struggling atmmalcolmg said:Alanbrooke said:
Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html , how are you Alan. Is your wife likely to be involved in latest cull ( Not Coronovirus just in case any of our resident snowflakes think I am being evil ) at work.
amazingly when you sack 70% of a department and send all the jobs out to India you don't get the same level of service
who knew ?0 -
Don't be daft David. Life is still wonderful.DavidL said:I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
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You're evidently a morning person..Luckyguy1983 said:
Don't be daft David. Life is still wonderful.DavidL said:I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
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I think you've got holidays coming up soon anyhow so I guess whoever's going to be looking after the kids then would generally be looking after them now. Arguably better to keep the kids out of the petridish in advance of that happening. Like Carlotta says the school issue is complicated.felix said:
And that is worse than giving it to elderly relatives?Nigelb said:
Do they not interact outside of school hours anyway ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
What the policy on school closures almost certainly does is ensure that most primary school teachers in the country will contract the virus.
Maybe there's an alternative approach where you cancel the school holidays and keep the kids in school the whole time...0 -
Can't say it better than that. Condolences to you Southam.Cyclefree said:@SouthamObserver
My sincere condolences to you, your wife and family. The care and tenderness you have shown in your posts about your mother-in-law and wife is a credit to you. I hope you will all find the comfort you need.0 -
Air conditioning.FrancisUrquhart said:They are reporting that 2 patients in a secure mental facilities in Washington State have it...So they will clearly have had limited exposure to the outside world.
It literally must be absolutely everywhere in that state.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxsGP6zJZVQLuckyguy1983 said:
Don't be daft David. Life is still wonderful.DavidL said:I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
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Very interesting: containment impossible, 40-70% of USA population will be infected, if death rate is 1% (no-one knows) that's 1.6 m deaths if 50% get it, the effort needed is to flatten the curve and so spread it out. Lots more. Well worth reading.IanB2 said:These notes someone took at a very recent conference of US experts may be of interest:
https://t.co/dwBCbcX3b4?amp=1
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Sadly not there often nowadays, I enjoyed living there many years ago. I lived down The Dean, there were some great pubs in town. Used to walk round the water past the mill to the Globe pub at bottom end of town , guy used to do lock ins , happy days and nights there.Casino_Royale said:
Let’s make it happen next time you’re in Alresford!malcolmg said:
Casino it would be a good sessionCasino_Royale said:I think I want to go on the lash with @malcolmg
I had to sell during crash at a loss , my daughter was at Uni in Scotland so went back there , wish I had kept house, did not think to keep two houses and rent in those days.1 -
I love humanity
"Hackers are spreading malware through coronavirus maps"
https://www.techradar.com/news/hackers-are-spreading-malware-through-coronavirus-maps?fbclid=IwAR0xnw7lkrxNFpswung9aUHLfukHA2YIg3Ui-9h-qbl9jWTn8sMYx7GHXD00 -
Crazy , they are slashing our area and we make all the money, no chance they would let me go. Given it looks like Helen will be a year recovering and I work from house it is no hardship to continue for now, plus given stock market I may need to hang about a bit anyway.Alanbrooke said:
shes gone for an EOI but not sure if shell be allowed to go as her area is struggling atmmalcolmg said:Alanbrooke said:
Its just mad atm malcmalcolmg said:
You are a laugh a minute, any more gloom and doomalex_ said:Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
monkeys fighting for food in the streets of Thailand when the experts know it should be toilet paper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8107295/A-world-chaos-Global-death-toll-coronavirus-nears-5-000.html , how are you Alan. Is your wife likely to be involved in latest cull ( Not Coronovirus just in case any of our resident snowflakes think I am being evil ) at work.
amazingly when you sack 70% of a department and send all the jobs out to India you don't get the same level of service
who knew ?
Hopefully she gets it, though they are only paying a pittance to go now.0 -
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Netflix could offer a free 3-month sign up for newbies during the virus lockdown. Fabulous publicity - and with a likelihood many would continue to subscribe once the free period ends.malcolmg said:
Possibly but a month does not sound any worse. Look at some of those hostages who had years without any facilities, books , etc, most managed to get back to normal life. It seems hard from onerous given the facilities people have at home nowadays, unlimited access to books, media , TV, films etc. Hard not to be able to find something to do to keep you occupied.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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It’s all gone a bit odd here from don’t panic to don’t go out within 24 hours. I can’t find the rational or evidence behind it as Valencia has ‘only’ just over 100 cases. But maybe it’s part of a national directive.felix said:
In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.alex_ said:
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.IanB2 said:
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.numbertwelve said:
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.malcolmg said:
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.alex_ said:
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.IanB2 said:
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?CarlottaVance said:Interestingly a Japanese friend has commented in Facebook on the excellent Guardian article on the UK response (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it) saying that all school closures in Japan have resulted in is children interacting more closely with each other in public spaces. There are simplistic answers, but few simple ones.
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Well, the survivors anyway.MarqueeMark said:and with a likelihood many would continue to subscribe once the free period ends.
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One question about all this is if we aren’t testing potential/suspected cases how do we know if people have had it and are therefore “safe” to others? Are there tests which can show if you’ve had it, or only ones which show you have it. If there is a plan to have shutdowns at periods of peak, it will be helpful to know who can safely be excluded from the rules.0
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Aw c'mon, watching 10 seasons of Walking Dead is going to keep anyone's spirits raised..... Take your mind off what's going on outside.Theuniondivvie said:
Well, the survivors anyway.MarqueeMark said:and with a likelihood many would continue to subscribe once the free period ends.
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The penny has dropped even for FaisalScott_xP said:0 -
Also some interesting comments on testing in the US - particularly on the choke point being labs, not kits, and that the US refused to use the WHO test and developed their own (which doesn't sound very reliable by the sound of it)algarkirk said:
Very interesting: containment impossible, 40-70% of USA population will be infected, if death rate is 1% (no-one knows) that's 1.6 m deaths if 50% get it, the effort needed is to flatten the curve and so spread it out. Lots more. Well worth reading.IanB2 said:These notes someone took at a very recent conference of US experts may be of interest:
https://t.co/dwBCbcX3b4?amp=10 -
Got up in the middle of the night, switched on TV to watch an impromptu press conference instead of a practice session, went back to bed.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: well, on the plus side, my bet on Hamilton scoring at under 21 races this season is looking pretty tasty right now.
[I'm aware it may well be voided].0 -
Standing orders are their friend...Theuniondivvie said:
Well, the survivors anyway.MarqueeMark said:and with a likelihood many would continue to subscribe once the free period ends.
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All the very best to you and yours. This is a fearful time. I don't think my generations (late 50s) has had to deal with anything like it.Black_Rook said:
I sympathise with your predicament, for I am falling into it myself. This whole business is only just getting started and I'm already fretting over the fate of my asthmatic husband, my ageing parents (one recently recovered from cancer, the other in the early stages of COPD) and my vulnerable, chronically ill work colleague. God alone knows what sort of state I and everybody else will be in a couple of months down the line.DavidL said:
I am sure you are right that it is healthy to do so but I am finding I can’t. My work has not dried up, quite the reverse actually, but I am finding it increasingly hard to concentrate on it. We are seeing a disaster unfolding before our eyes in real time. Our government thinks that the right thing to do is not to even try to stop it. They may be right, they may be catastrophically wrong. Either way several people we know or even ourselves are going to die as a consequence. I am obsessed, I don’t deny it. Best wishes to you and yours.Cyclefree said:
@DavidL: I am at higher risk than some because of my health issue, I am very worried about what this will do to my daughter’s business and to my sons searching for employment. I have over 30 cousins, spouses, children and aunts and uncles in Italy. My own work has dried up for the moment.DavidL said:I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
So yes this is very worrying indeed. But I am not going to dwell on it every moment of my waking day.
But while semi-self-isolated up here in deepest rural Cumbria I am reading and thinking and writing about other things. Because we can both walk and chew gum at the same time, right?0 -
FTSE up 6%0
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The Don worrying both about Sleepy Joe coming up on the rail and his own shyte performance on the Corona virus. You know what they say about conducting a war on 2 fronts.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238288908431036423?s=201 -
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are thereTheScreamingEagles said:Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.
That's the Premier League finished.0 -
Classic dictator - when under pressure, ladh out even more intenselyTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He really has never heard of the phrase “hostage to fortune”, has he? Do you think his aides have decided to let him hang himself?Theuniondivvie said:The Don worrying both about Sleepy Joe coming up on the rail and his own shyte performance on the Corona virus. You know what they say about conducting a war on 2 fronts.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238288908431036423?s=20
And how many did swine flu kill, compared to, I don’t know, the 3 flu seasons Trump has been in charge of so far?0 -
Indeed, many condolences to Southam and his family. A lovely post from him earlier in the thread.Casino_Royale said:Just caught up on this thread overnight.
My very best wishes to @SouthamObserver and his wife.0 -
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I can only assume he makes for better television because they know he won't equivocate whereas others they called were likely to be more nuanced.isam said:
He was on This Morning and GMTV as well, on ITV.rottenborough said:
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTFalex_ said:
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!YBarddCwsc said:
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
I don’t really get why0 -
Blimey, as if needed to get any uglier. Yeesh.williamglenn said:US politics is going to get ugly over coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/theviewfromll2/status/1238280148237025280?s=21
https://twitter.com/theviewfromll2/status/1238281182938312705?s=210 -
Betting post -
Biden and Trump are now the same price (1.11) for their respective nominations.0 -
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.Charles said:
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are thereTheScreamingEagles said:Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.
That's the Premier League finished.2 -
And again we have Sanders at the same price for both Nominee and POTUS.0
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From yesterday it is clear that even some normally very sharp posters on here are struggling to understand this as well. In the wider public Id imagine some will never get it and instead start looking at blaming elites, experts, Chinese, Jews/Muslims depending on inclination and/or Mexican beers.IanB2 said:
The penny has dropped even for FaisalScott_xP said:
If Johnson can hold off the something must be done mentality as long as the scientists want, it will be an important achievement. Politically it is far easier for him to copy what other countries are doing at the same time.5 -
A reasonable man. But I'm pretty confident shit will hit the fan next week. Anecdotal if course but the last few days theres definitely been an uptick among people I know going from not mentioning it at all to wondering about closures and panic buying additional mini freezers to store food.rottenborough said:0 -
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.alex_ said:
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.Charles said:
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are thereTheScreamingEagles said:Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.
That's the Premier League finished.2 -
Bit difficult to go on strike when the schools have been closed.HYUFD said:0
