Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.
They can, but that requires everyone to make that decision. Which they won't, hence Hunt's suggestion.
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.
In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.
It’s all gone a bit odd here from don’t panic to don’t go out within 24 hours. I can’t find the rational or evidence behind it as Valencia has ‘only’ just over 100 cases. But maybe it’s part of a national directive.
Yup - same here where there 4 cases in the whole of Almeria.
The key word there is “preventable”. If our government is right it’s not and Trump’s callous arrogance and incompetence will have made very little difference.
With such numbers of people the difference between unpreventable and effective mitigation could be huge I'd think.
From yesterday it is clear that even some normally very sharp posters on here are struggling to understand this as well. In the wider public Id imagine some will never get it and instead start looking at blaming elites, experts, Chinese, Jews/Muslims depending on inclination and/or Mexican beers.
If Johnson can hold off the something must be done mentality as long as the scientists want, it will be an important achievement. Politically it is far easier for him to copy what other countries are doing at the same time.
Spot on. Message is: We are mostly going to get it but please form a fairly orderly queue, and patiently delay getting it till, say, Ascot or Goodwood. Meanwhile don't be a miserable git.
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.
You can't co-ordinate a national response by leaving it up to individuals.
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.
You can't co-ordinate a national response by leaving it up to individuals.
Well, it's one thing telling people you can't do something, it's quite another to get people to carry on as normal.
Poor Greta. She's yesterday's news. Corona is the new celebrity in town.
And is also doing here job for her. The stats on Carbon emissions this year are going to be astonishing.
Ironically as well, whilst this virus is causing an unprecented threat to respiratory health, the air in big cities is probably improving rapidly and dramatically.
Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
Poor Greta. She's yesterday's news. Corona is the new celebrity in town.
And is also doing here job for her. The stats on Carbon emissions this year are going to be astonishing.
Ironically as well, whilst this virus is causing an unprecented threat to respiratory health, the air in big cities is probably improving rapidly and dramatically.
And deaths from normal flu will be dropping quickly.
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.
In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.
It’s all gone a bit odd here from don’t panic to don’t go out within 24 hours. I can’t find the rational or evidence behind it as Valencia has ‘only’ just over 100 cases. But maybe it’s part of a national directive.
Yup - same here where there 4 cases in the whole of Almeria.
Are they trying to stop self isolators from Madrid coming to spend it by the coast by making it look worse than it is?
As I said yesterday, as someone is in the highest risk factor, Boris and his medical advisers do give me confidence they know what they are doing and are striking the correct tone
Since when have Kay Burley, Piers Morgan, Nigel Farage and a good part of the media become the voice of the nation and a font of all knowledge on covid 19. Burley was outrageous yesterday and trys to make it all about her, indeed she thinks she is so great and everyone should listen to her
You would think every country has closed their schools when that is not the case. As far as the UK all the politicians at Cobra have said not now but it is under constant review.
It is time the government were given the space to deal with this.
Jeremy Hunt spectacularly unhelpful to the government on Newsnight!
I hope he’s part of the plan to soften people up
Otherwise he’s being utterly irresponsible
There is a genuine debate to be had: Hunt is saying look at Thailand, they have stopped this in its tracks. We should do the same. The Government is saying in effect: No, if you do that it will not go away, it will hide and come back. Bite the bullet now but slowly. We shall (those left) find out who is right. I don't think anyone can possibly know at this moment. But our policy is more attuned to a western, individualist and unrestrained society, Asian policies more attuned to a communitarian and obedient one.
It's not easy to keep a sane debate between alternatives on life and death issues, but we might as well try. At least it makes Brexit seem trivial and provides a subject on which schoolchildren are not the ultimate authority.
Poor Greta. She's yesterday's news. Corona is the new celebrity in town.
And is also doing here job for her. The stats on Carbon emissions this year are going to be astonishing.
Ironically as well, whilst this virus is causing an unprecented threat to respiratory health, the air in big cities is probably improving rapidly and dramatically.
And deaths from normal flu will be dropping quickly.
Always look on the bright side of life.
Hospital for Tropical Diseases will be twiddling their thumbs.....
Not one of their future prediction models looks at the impact beyond June. File under author can do some maths and produce pretty graphs so the author thinks its better than the CMO and CSO.
Not one of their future prediction models looks at the impact beyond June. File under author can do some maths and produce pretty graphs so the author thinks its better than the CMO and CSO.
if thats the best article she's read on Covid-19 she should read a lot more widely.
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
Schools have a duty of care to their employees (which the government apparently don't). If you have any teachers over the age of 50, keeping the school open in such circumstances is in clear breach of that.
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.
In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.
It’s all gone a bit odd here from don’t panic to don’t go out within 24 hours. I can’t find the rational or evidence behind it as Valencia has ‘only’ just over 100 cases. But maybe it’s part of a national directive.
Yup - same here where there 4 cases in the whole of Almeria.
Are they trying to stop self isolators from Madrid coming to spend it by the coast by making it look worse than it is?
No - they are just asking people together responsible and not travel if they have any symptoms. Driving in the area today the holiday home areas are pretty quiet although we've had weeks of lovely sunshine. I'm expecting Semana Santa celebrations will soon be cancelled. Fingers crossed and may God help the hotels and restaurants.
Jeremy Hunt spectacularly unhelpful to the government on Newsnight!
I hope he’s part of the plan to soften people up
Otherwise he’s being utterly irresponsible
There is a genuine debate to be had: Hunt is saying look at Thailand, they have stopped this in its tracks. We should do the same. The Government is saying in effect: No, if you do that it will not go away, it will hide and come back. Bite the bullet now but slowly. We shall (those left) find out who is right. I don't think anyone can possibly know at this moment. But our policy is more attuned to a western, individualist and unrestrained society, Asian policies more attuned to a communitarian and obedient one.
It's not easy to keep a sane debate between alternatives on life and death issues, but we might as well try. At least it makes Brexit seem trivial and provides a subject on which schoolchildren are not the ultimate authority.
Ditto Taiwan and Korea (China is an exception, as it's an authoritarian society whose policies are not an option for us).
Should they succeed in halting the virus long enough for a vaccine to be developed successfully, we're going to look callous at best.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
All those people bitching about Trump: We are effectively following the same policy, just more honestly?
More honestly, certainly (albeit government has not laid out the choice in quite so explicit a manner). Trump is to be reviled as he hasn't even tried from the start, and has been entirely mendacious along the way.
The Don worrying both about Sleepy Joe coming up on the rail and his own shyte performance on the Corona virus. You know what they say about conducting a war on 2 fronts.
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.
If the soft jessies cannot stand a couple of weeks in the house then they are already not well in the head. They can do plenty and still go for a walk etc. What a nation of losers UK has become.
I think you might be being optimistic with the two week time frame.... this could easily be a month plus.
From Newsnight it appears probably months, but for the elderly and vulnerable. Kids to go about as normal.
That's in the UK. Not in the countries that appear to be going for an "eradication" approach. The restrictions affect everyone, because they want to minimise the ability of anyone to spread it.
In Spain closing the universities in the big northern cities where the virus is rampant has sent a ton of students back home to the Costas where there are fewer cases. I think that is the flaw in the argument.
It’s all gone a bit odd here from don’t panic to don’t go out within 24 hours. I can’t find the rational or evidence behind it as Valencia has ‘only’ just over 100 cases. But maybe it’s part of a national directive.
Yup - same here where there 4 cases in the whole of Almeria.
Are they trying to stop self isolators from Madrid coming to spend it by the coast by making it look worse than it is?
No - they are just asking people together responsible and not travel if they have any symptoms. Driving in the area today the holiday home areas are pretty quiet although we've had weeks of lovely sunshine. I'm expecting Semana Santa celebrations will soon be cancelled. Fingers crossed and may God help the hotels and restaurants.
Yes it’s going to be worse than 2008 I’m afraid which took years to recover from.
One of the minor issues arising from yesterday's change of tack is that it appears the UK will no longer be testing in the same way looking for cases who should then self-isolate etc even if they seem to have the symptoms. AIUI testing will instead be focused on those presenting at hospital to identify the form of treatment required.
This is, over time, likely to have a significant impact on our reported figures. It will also make estimates of the level of infection in the community increasingly guess work (as the CSO indicated they broadly were already in fairness).
I am guessing the next trigger point is going to be when a certain number turn up at ICUs needing treatment. One of my concerns about that, which focuses on demand rather than the supply, is that we will not know how much herd immunity is being achieved. Everything the turns on the estimates of what percentage need treatment and what percentage die. But if we end up with the Italian mutation which may be significantly more lethal than the Chinese variant we risk overestimating prevalence in society.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
I'm inclined to agree with those advocating the thing that seems counter-intuitive.
I think our government has come to terms with what's going to happen. They may not appear to being be cautious, but actually, they are taking the low risk approach.
That is, those countries trying to stop it are taking a big gamble.
The Don worrying both about Sleepy Joe coming up on the rail and his own shyte performance on the Corona virus. You know what they say about conducting a war on 2 fronts.
All those people bitching about Trump: We are effectively following the same policy, just more honestly?
How do you know? Doesn’t that depends on our policy response during different stages on the virus. There are a whole range of measures we haven’t ruled out, just aren’t implementing yet. And are reasonably confident about where we are in the progress of the virus because of good early testing.
The US doesn’t have a clue of where they are, they have several hotspots where the whole thing has clearly got out of control. And are still doing nothing. It is ridiculously simplistic to suggest we are following the same path.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
None, Take your child out of school and nail up your front door.
Not one of their future prediction models looks at the impact beyond June. File under author can do some maths and produce pretty graphs so the author thinks its better than the CMO and CSO.
if thats the best article she's read on Covid-19 she should read a lot more widely.
I think this article is assuming that draconian measures make it go away and stay away. Our Government's advisers seem to think that's wrong, and that a measured approach, not attempting to squash it flat, is the only safe course; hence the emphasis on creating 'herd immunity' yesterday and repeated on Today this morning; ie most of us must get it but not in time for the Grand National, better to wait for Goodwood or the start of the 20-21 National Hunt season.
No amount of pretty graphs and end of the world language can resolve that interesting discussion. Those who live the longest will see the most.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
You must be comforted to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan. The two Nigels together in the same boat
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
The number of active cases in SK now seems to have just started falling. Too soon to be sure but they seem to have hit peak already. It's taken them a month having started well behind. Are they going to successfully suppress this or are they simply deferring the next wave until winter? That is the nature of the gamble.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
It's becoming clearer that the UK government thinks that it's positively desirable that a good chunk of the population gets the bug sooner or later, in order to build up herd immunity, and simply want to spread it over time to avoid overloading services. Other countries are trying to fight back against the spread and would be pleased if they can minimise it altogether.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides here. The British approach makes strategic sense against a recurrence of the virus and minimises economicdisruption, but may lead to more deaths in the short term. The Continental approach is better if the virus will mutate to the point that herd immunity is irrelevant, or if a vaccine appears, but if neither are true may lead to more deaths in the long term. I'm not sure which I prefer, and I'm not an expert so will simply hope for the best.
The US appears to worse than either, though, with a variety of random measures but a vulnerable population with limited free care and no obvious coherent strategy at all. Being a federation doesn't help either, as Germany has also found - as Merkel said when Berlin dragged its feet over local football matches, "Federalism is not an excuse for inaction."
All those people bitching about Trump: We are effectively following the same policy, just more honestly?
How do you know? Doesn’t that depends on our policy response during different stages on the virus. There are a whole range of measures we haven’t ruled out, just aren’t implementing yet. And are reasonably confident about where we are in the progress of the virus because of good early testing.
The US doesn’t have a clue of where they are, they have several hotspots where the whole thing has clearly got out of control. And are still doing nothing. It is ridiculously simplistic to suggest we are following the same path.
Broad brush, both approaches are “let’s take the hit”.
Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
None, Take your child out of school and nail up your front door.
Which is effectively what we are doing. But that opens us up to prosecution for taking our child out of school.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
It's a hell of an assumption that if you suppress it now it won't pop up later too. What's to stop it?
Korea and Taiwan I buy - Japan I have my doubts - the Olympics may have been driving health policy.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
It's becoming clearer that the UK government thinks that it's positively desirable that a good chunk of the population gets the bug sooner or later, in order to build up herd immunity, and simply want to spread it over time to avoid overloading services. Other countries are trying to fight back against the spread and would be pleased if they can minimise it altogether.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides here. The British approach makes strategic sense against a recurrence of the virus and minimises economicdisruption, but may lead to more deaths in the short term. The Continental approach is better if the virus will mutate to the point that herd immunity is irrelevant, or if a vaccine appears, but if neither are true may lead to more deaths in the long term. I'm not sure which I prefer, and I'm not an expert so will simply hope for the best.
The US appears to worse than either, though, with a variety of random measures but a vulnerable population with limited free care and no obvious coherent strategy at all. Being a federation doesn't help either, as Germany has also found - as Merkel said when Berlin dragged its feet over local football matches, "Federalism is not an excuse for inaction."
Given that it is now everywhere - how on earth do countries think they can escape recurrency - the thing is that even if mutated versions arrive (and they will) the original version will still be spreading.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
I agree; the counter-argument I guess is that you have time to wait for a vaccine (except early 2021 sounds like the most advance date, and hiding away that long isn't realistic) or for the virus to mutate into a less harmful form. Mutation requires ongoing infection, so perhaps the UK will be doing some of the heavy lifting in that regard?
And again we have Sanders at the same price for both Nominee and POTUS.
Just reality - he ain't winning either.
ok I'll have a stab at this - Sanders only gets the nomination because Biden dies of Coronavirus. Biden dying of Coronavirus makes Sanders a shoo-in for the presidency because of something or other.
I think the human behaviour angle is perhaps underestimated.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
None, Take your child out of school and nail up your front door.
No general advice can deal with individual situations. Government is not a doctor. It does however fund a handy organisation called the NHS which is free and remarkably gives individual advice and treatment to 65 million people. Try it.
The number of active cases in SK now seems to have just started falling. Too soon to be sure but they seem to have hit peak already. It's taken them a month having started well behind. Are they going to successfully suppress this or are they simply deferring the next wave until winter? That is the nature of the gamble.
Deferring it until winter would be a huge win, no? Even if nothing lucky happens in the meantime like developing a vaccine or finding effective treatment that seriously reduces the damage, they'd have 6 months to prepare.
And again we have Sanders at the same price for both Nominee and POTUS.
Just reality - he ain't winning either.
ok I'll have a stab at this - Sanders only gets the nomination because Biden dies of Coronavirus. Biden dying of Coronavirus makes Sanders a shoo-in for the presidency because of something or other.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
You must be comforted to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan. The two Nigels together in the same boat
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
It is a clear strategy. But the science is as yet not fully understood or agreed. And other strategies are available.
We seem to be willing to accept “more deaths now” for “less economic dislocation now” and “fewer deaths later”. But each of those terms is contestable.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
It's becoming clearer that the UK government thinks that it's positively desirable that a good chunk of the population gets the bug sooner or later, in order to build up herd immunity, and simply want to spread it over time to avoid overloading services. Other countries are trying to fight back against the spread and would be pleased if they can minimise it altogether.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides here. The British approach makes strategic sense against a recurrence of the virus and minimises economicdisruption, but may lead to more deaths in the short term. The Continental approach is better if the virus will mutate to the point that herd immunity is irrelevant, or if a vaccine appears, but if neither are true may lead to more deaths in the long term. I'm not sure which I prefer, and I'm not an expert so will simply hope for the best.
The US appears to worse than either, though, with a variety of random measures but a vulnerable population with limited free care and no obvious coherent strategy at all. Being a federation doesn't help either, as Germany has also found - as Merkel said when Berlin dragged its feet over local football matches, "Federalism is not an excuse for inaction."
The US could easily get onto our sort of strategy in fairly short order, if they had the leadership and clarity of thinking. The problem they have is the nature of their healthcare system.
The number of active cases in SK now seems to have just started falling. Too soon to be sure but they seem to have hit peak already. It's taken them a month having started well behind. Are they going to successfully suppress this or are they simply deferring the next wave until winter? That is the nature of the gamble.
Deferring it until winter would be a huge win, no? Even if nothing lucky happens in the meantime like developing a vaccine or finding effective treatment that seriously reduces the damage, they'd have 6 months to prepare.
We might have a vaccine but chances are the vaccine may take another year to mass produce
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
The number of active cases in SK now seems to have just started falling. Too soon to be sure but they seem to have hit peak already. It's taken them a month having started well behind. Are they going to successfully suppress this or are they simply deferring the next wave until winter? That is the nature of the gamble.
Deferring it until winter would be a huge win, no? Even if nothing lucky happens in the meantime like developing a vaccine or finding effective treatment that seriously reduces the damage, they'd have 6 months to prepare.
We might have a vaccine but chances are the vaccine may take another year to mass produce
Yes, that's why I put it in the category of "something lucky happens".
I think the human behaviour angle is perhaps underestimated.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
This really chimes with the behavioural science basis of the advice for "not yet." I think it is tricky. Loneliness is a great enough affliction on many older members of society as it is and it is not conducive to good health or resilience.
Comments
Have the government gamed this one out, too ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Thursday_(2020)
Otherwise he’s being utterly irresponsible
Ironically as well, whilst this virus is causing an unprecented threat to respiratory health, the air in big cities is probably improving rapidly and dramatically.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
San Marino must be quite a worried place - 5 deaths in a population of 33,000.
Always look on the bright side of life.
JohnO can relax now.
As I said yesterday, as someone is in the highest risk factor, Boris and his medical advisers do give me confidence they know what they are doing and are striking the correct tone
Since when have Kay Burley, Piers Morgan, Nigel Farage and a good part of the media become the voice of the nation and a font of all knowledge on covid 19. Burley was outrageous yesterday and trys to make it all about her, indeed she thinks she is so great and everyone should listen to her
You would think every country has closed their schools when that is not the case. As far as the UK all the politicians at Cobra have said not now but it is under constant review.
It is time the government were given the space to deal with this.
be safekeep away from the rest of the germ-ridden bunch!It's not easy to keep a sane debate between alternatives on life and death issues, but we might as well try. At least it makes Brexit seem trivial and provides a subject on which schoolchildren are not the ultimate authority.
He has gone so far down in my estimation - well past the point of no-return.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51866403
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51866343
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51867854
Irrelevance has snapped his fingers and is calling for Rory.
If you have any teachers over the age of 50, keeping the school open in such circumstances is in clear breach of that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51865915
Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
Should they succeed in halting the virus long enough for a vaccine to be developed successfully, we're going to look callous at best.
We are effectively following the same policy, just more honestly?
Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors
2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se.
Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics.
But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Trump is to be reviled as he hasn't even tried from the start, and has been entirely mendacious along the way.
I know we're all used to it - bit of a shrug and a giggle - but we really shouldn't be.
God knows how the history books will explain it.
This is, over time, likely to have a significant impact on our reported figures. It will also make estimates of the level of infection in the community increasingly guess work (as the CSO indicated they broadly were already in fairness).
I am guessing the next trigger point is going to be when a certain number turn up at ICUs needing treatment. One of my concerns about that, which focuses on demand rather than the supply, is that we will not know how much herd immunity is being achieved. Everything the turns on the estimates of what percentage need treatment and what percentage die. But if we end up with the Italian mutation which may be significantly more lethal than the Chinese variant we risk overestimating prevalence in society.
I think our government has come to terms with what's going to happen. They may not appear to being be cautious, but actually, they are taking the low risk approach.
That is, those countries trying to stop it are taking a big gamble.
The US doesn’t have a clue of where they are, they have several hotspots where the whole thing has clearly got out of control. And are still doing nothing. It is ridiculously simplistic to suggest we are following the same path.
The economic shock may well have an effect on climate change policies as well as the leisure industry and our priorities
Once thing is certain, nothing is going to be the same again
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
No amount of pretty graphs and end of the world language can resolve that interesting discussion. Those who live the longest will see the most.
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1238376751857885189?s=20
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides here. The British approach makes strategic sense against a recurrence of the virus and minimises economicdisruption, but may lead to more deaths in the short term. The Continental approach is better if the virus will mutate to the point that herd immunity is irrelevant, or if a vaccine appears, but if neither are true may lead to more deaths in the long term. I'm not sure which I prefer, and I'm not an expert so will simply hope for the best.
The US appears to worse than either, though, with a variety of random measures but a vulnerable population with limited free care and no obvious coherent strategy at all. Being a federation doesn't help either, as Germany has also found - as Merkel said when Berlin dragged its feet over local football matches, "Federalism is not an excuse for inaction."
Korea and Taiwan I buy - Japan I have my doubts - the Olympics may have been driving health policy.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
Have Singapore given up on testing outside of hospital admissions ?
But the science is as yet not fully understood or agreed.
And other strategies are available.
We seem to be willing to accept “more deaths now” for “less economic dislocation now” and “fewer deaths later”. But each of those terms is contestable.
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford,
Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/operation-midland-police-must-be-neutral-about-reports-of-victims-wbnlpkmkq
Scroll down and see how she gave the police a well-deserved kick up the bottom.