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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Warnings – What might be the signals that all is not wel

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Warnings – What might be the signals that all is not well in a democracy?

Just as it is easy to be complacent about a country’s immunity to extremism (“If it didn’t happen before, it won’t happen now”), it is all too easy for any suggested change to the existing constitutional or political set up to be described as the first step towards whichever form of extremism most worries the commentator, especially if from a political opponent. 

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Comments

  • First
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Thanks, CycleFree :)
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    I think Christine Lagarde might be an android. I heard her earlier call the virus “covid dash nineteen”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Fourth
  • Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Great piece Cyclefree articulaing one of of my grearest fears at the moment.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    Oh well, no winner this year, on to 20/21
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    And Liverpool got so close. What a shame, always next year though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    I say null and void all results....fairs fair.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    He’s not got AIDS - will be back on his feet in 2 weeks.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Personally i’m a great believer in (British) exceptionalism. I can’t stand the argument that if everyone else is doing something different, you must be wrong. Invest in your own experts, robustly examine their judgement, and back them to come up with the right solutions. Learn from other countries, but don’t blindly follow them. And knowing that you will treat crises like that gives you better experts because they have no hiding place and therefore know their expertise has to be genuine.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    Yep, just saying on telly that the entire Arsenal team have been put into isolation. And I think the premature end of the football season has been gradually becoming apparent for a while, but hindsight's a wonderful thing ain't it?

    Uefa has an emergency meeting on Tuesday, when I expect they'll decide to delay Euro 2020 for a calendar year. The European club competitions will probably get guillotined at the same meeting, or failing that shortly thereafter. Domestic football is already suspended in many European leagues, and don't see ours limping on much past the weekend.

    The most likely outcome of all this is that the 2019/20 season gets wiped and everything starts again from scratch in August or September. Fantastic news for Norwich City. For Liverpool, not so much.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    I suspect this isn't the only announcement in the current 'delay' phase, at least judging by how much they banged on about how timing was important for various measures.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    It’s about letting the air out of the balloon slowly - not stopping the leak.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    edited March 2020
    The Australian GP is either cancelled or is going ahead without spectators, but lots of people have turned up at the gates so will get infected anyway.

    https://twitter.com/MBrundleF1/status/1238231237258555393?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Yes - chrome have implemented new cookie settings which mean vanilla doesn't seem to work if you are trying to login from the pb website - I told @rcs1000 about the issue yesterday but can't offer a fix as I don't know what the fix actually is (I know it took Microsoft a while to fix their login system for this issue)..
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    Shush, we don't allow thinking here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    We are not there yet, as the CMO said, right now we actually need more infections,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    The past two days have been very strange. Media briefed about a big announcement at 7pm yesterday, then nothing. Then Times / Newsnight briefed about sports being cancelled etc, and then nothing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    Telling people not to phone 111 and not testing them. The peak will be based on partial data, so will be much lower.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    Telling people not to phone 111 and not testing them. The peak will be based on partial data, so will be much lower.
    It was the cheapest way.
  • eek said:

    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Yes - chrome have implemented new cookie settings which mean vanilla doesn't seem to work if you are trying to login from the pb website - I told @rcs1000 about the issue yesterday but can't offer a fix as I don't know what the fix actually is (I know it took Microsoft a while to fix their login system for this issue)..
    Chrome is working fine with me on my MacBook.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    Great piece Cyclefree articulaing one of of my grearest fears at the moment.

    In fact, two outstanding pieces from Mrs Cyclefree this week. Most rewarding to read them both. Many thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    I asked that question about 5 years ago but never discovered the answer.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    eadric said:

    alex_ said:

    Personally i’m a great believer in (British) exceptionalism. I can’t stand the argument that if everyone else is doing something different, you must be wrong. Invest in your own experts, robustly examine their judgement, and back them to come up with the right solutions. Learn from other countries, but don’t blindly follow them. And knowing that you will treat crises like that gives you better experts because they have no hiding place and therefore know their expertise has to be genuine.

    "Personally I'm a great believer in British exceptionalism" is a phrase that, I confess, makes me shudder, in the context of a pandemic
    Funny thing is the same people were going nuts just a few days ago about Trump and American exceptionalism.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited March 2020

    eek said:

    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Yes - chrome have implemented new cookie settings which mean vanilla doesn't seem to work if you are trying to login from the pb website - I told @rcs1000 about the issue yesterday but can't offer a fix as I don't know what the fix actually is (I know it took Microsoft a while to fix their login system for this issue)..
    Chrome is working fine with me on my MacBook.
    are you logged in already or are you trying to log in. I'm logged in in Vanilla but I cannot login on the PB site.
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    A rerun of the same argument that ran in the Thatcher years from thinly disguised political opponents masquerading as independents. Guardian reading folk always hate blue governments pandering to the needs of the great unwashed, this post is from the same mould. Of course treasured institutions like the legal system, civil service and the media will be up for reform when they've so patently been running an agenda against the wishes of a majority. Death of democracy? Or a democracy actually asserting itself?
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Yes - chrome have implemented new cookie settings which mean vanilla doesn't seem to work if you are trying to login from the pb website - I told @rcs1000 about the issue yesterday but can't offer a fix as I don't know what the fix actually is (I know it took Microsoft a while to fix their login system for this issue)..
    Chrome is working fine with me on my MacBook.
    are you logged in already or are you trying to log in. I'm logged in in Vanilla but I cannot login on the PB site.
    Already logged in.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Sure it must have been posted earlier but missed it.

    Electoral commission recommending delay in London mayoral elections til the Autumn.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    An interesting piece but I’d counter it with two observations:

    a) We’ve recently seen an example of the courts putting Gvt in its place and we should be gladdened by that; and

    b) Even in the case of the Labour Party, it seems to be in the process of correcting its errors.

    Basically, I think we have good checks and balances in this country. But you’re right that we should be cautious.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    CatMan said:

    The Australian GP is either cancelled or is going ahead without spectators, but lots of people have turned up at the gates so will get infected anyway.

    https://twitter.com/MBrundleF1/status/1238231237258555393?s=20

    An example of how not to organise a major event in current circumstances.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    You don’t understand why people with symptoms not going out will reduce the number of infections?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Arteta +ve test.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    We are not there yet, as the CMO said, right now we actually need more infections,
    Perhaps that "take it on the chin" approach...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    That was the most eye popping claim. I just don't see how that is possible. If they said 2 weeks, you would think hmmm maybe, but double that, really, like really...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eadric said:

    alex_ said:

    Personally i’m a great believer in (British) exceptionalism. I can’t stand the argument that if everyone else is doing something different, you must be wrong. Invest in your own experts, robustly examine their judgement, and back them to come up with the right solutions. Learn from other countries, but don’t blindly follow them. And knowing that you will treat crises like that gives you better experts because they have no hiding place and therefore know their expertise has to be genuine.

    "Personally I'm a great believer in British exceptionalism" is a phrase that, I confess, makes me shudder, in the context of a pandemic
    Our experts may actually be getting the approach right though - i.e. other countries are making mistakes, or they're also doing the right thing but their particular circumstances are somewhat different.

    The varied responses to the pandemic constitute a series of experiments with the lives of large groups of human beings, and we're not going to know which experiments were the most successful until this is all over.

    Our might be one of the failures, but we oughtn't automatically to assume so.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Works fine for me.

    Turn it off and turn it on again. If it doesnt work, delete history on chrome, and restart it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    What are your success/failure criteria?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    https://twitter.com/nprfreshair/status/1238186469690429440

    I am actually starting to wish Trump gets coronavirus. His unbelievable callousness towards other people's lives means he deserves it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    Yep, just saying on telly that the entire Arsenal team have been put into isolation. And I think the premature end of the football season has been gradually becoming apparent for a while, but hindsight's a wonderful thing ain't it?

    Uefa has an emergency meeting on Tuesday, when I expect they'll decide to delay Euro 2020 for a calendar year. The European club competitions will probably get guillotined at the same meeting, or failing that shortly thereafter. Domestic football is already suspended in many European leagues, and don't see ours limping on much past the weekend.

    The most likely outcome of all this is that the 2019/20 season gets wiped and everything starts again from scratch in August or September. Fantastic news for Norwich City. For Liverpool, not so much.
    31 years and counting, eh?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    That was the most eye popping claim. I just don't see how that is possible. If they said 2 weeks, you would think hmmm maybe, but double that, really, like really...
    I crunched the numbers on this. We get to 15k infections in 28 days if we have a 12-13% daily growth rate. We've not been that low any single day in March...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Ooooh, do you think if the Government eventually prohibits large gatherings that it will mean that Question Time gets axed?

    Clouds, silver linings and all that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    eadric said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eadric said:

    Also, does anyone know why PB cannot be accessed by normal Chrome, yet is available on Vanilla?

    Yes - chrome have implemented new cookie settings which mean vanilla doesn't seem to work if you are trying to login from the pb website - I told @rcs1000 about the issue yesterday but can't offer a fix as I don't know what the fix actually is (I know it took Microsoft a while to fix their login system for this issue)..
    Chrome is working fine with me on my MacBook.
    are you logged in already or are you trying to log in.
    Yes, I can read it, I just can't log in
    Might just be a problem for people with multiple login identities?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020
    https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1238132638650695681?

    Trump, for the third time, reaffirms his support of unifying Ireland.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    Marcus01 said:

    A rerun of the same argument that ran in the Thatcher years from thinly disguised political opponents masquerading as independents. Guardian reading folk always hate blue governments pandering to the needs of the great unwashed, this post is from the same mould. Of course treasured institutions like the legal system, civil service and the media will be up for reform when they've so patently been running an agenda against the wishes of a majority. Death of democracy? Or a democracy actually asserting itself?

    I haven’t read the Guardian for years, apart from occasional articles posted on here or sent to me by friends and family. I was banned, in fact, by Comment is Free for pointing out many of the hypocrisies and other idiocies inflicted on their readers by some of their journalists: Seamus Milne and Ms Toynbee were particular targets of mine.

    It was great fun until I got banned. :(

    You have not noted that one of my biggest criticisms in the header is reserved for Labour and its supporters, of whom the Guardian is one. Not me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Quincel said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    That was the most eye popping claim. I just don't see how that is possible. If they said 2 weeks, you would think hmmm maybe, but double that, really, like really...
    I crunched the numbers on this. We get to 15k infections in 28 days if we have a 12-13% daily growth rate. We've not been that low any single day in March...
    The only possible thing I can think of is they believe that the density is low and spread out, compared to Italy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    Basically, SAGE do not seem to believe it possible to a significant degree. They think it would be "only a 30% reduction" essentially they are being defeatist, not brave.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Great piece Cyclefree articulaing one of of my grearest fears at the moment.

    Thank you very much.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    Why would you be dead? Are you in a major risk category’s?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Am I right in assuming that someon who has had Covid-19 and recovered is no longer infectious? (In contrast to, say, HIV)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    I say null and void all results....fairs fair.
    You have to hand it to Liverpool, they’ve had a great go. They couldn’t get over the line this year, but there will be other years. They can be justly proud.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    I say null and void all results....fairs fair.
    You have to hand it to Liverpool, they’ve had a great go. They couldn’t get over the line this year, but there will be other years. They can be justly proud.
    Bit like when Gerrard slipped.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: a few days ago the government was going to have 10,000 tests a day. Now there are going to be none, other than for those in hospital.

    What is the reason for this?

    That was the strangest thing I heard. They were going for the South Korea model and then today just totally pivoted to the opposite extreme, without explaining any reason why they were no longer interesting in screening the public at large.
    That is another element which nudges me towards my conclusion of surrender to it.
    If you’re just letting rip, what’s the point in ramping up testing ?
    I think the logic is if the infection rate is as high as expected then mass testing is a waste of time.

    It is useful at the start of the pandemic to try and find who has it, and do contact testing for the positive.
    So they think SK approach is a waste of time? Even though they seem to be catching clusters of outbreaks and shutting them down?
    The South Korean approach seems to be working on the assumption that if we contain it then it'll all be fine, but all it needs is a further outbreak later on and they are fecked.
    No, that's not how it works. What they (and Japan etc) are doing is reducing the probability that in any given case, you give it to someone else. If the average sufferer passes it on to less than one person, the number of cases will decline, regardless of how many there are.
    That's if the methods can be sustained in the long term (months, not weeks).
    That's not true.

    Right now, the growth is say 25% more cases per day. So that means on average, each infected person infects someone every four days.

    A two week complete lockdown would mean that three cycles of this are missed (outside transmission in the home), and that a large number of people who were infectious cease being so.

    Of course, when restrictions are relaxed, the number of cases will flare up again. But that's the way this is managed. A series of (say) lockdowns every two months. Unpleasant. But not fatal.
    Your last point was my point exactly. For that strategy to work, they have to sustain it for the duration, as there will be no herd immunity to protect them further down the line.
    Except that (1) this strategy avoids health systems becoming overloaded, (2) each time around there are slightly more people who are immune to the disease, so the growth should be more moderate, and (3) at some point a vaccine will be found.

    We'll also get better at testing and isolation, so that future outbreaks should be identified more easily.

    It's disruptive, but it's far from an existential threat.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I don't understand what has been announced today that would actually flatten the peak.

    You don’t understand why people with symptoms not going out will reduce the number of infections?
    I think people who are ill have made a great fist of lying in bed feeling ill for going on decades now without government advice.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited March 2020

    Am I right in assuming that someon who has had Covid-19 and recovered is no longer infectious? (In contrast to, say, HIV)

    Yes, though in the case of Flu for example people can still be infectious for some time after the symptoms have gone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Am I right in assuming that someon who has had Covid-19 and recovered is no longer infectious? (In contrast to, say, HIV)

    Yes, though it does take a few weeks to no longer shed virus.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Have you got Slack or Discord or something? You need somewhere where you can do background chatter that you can dip in and out of. Don't just try to recreate office meetings online, embrace the whole medium...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    This is an enormous gamble on the herd immunity theory given how little we fully understand about the virus. This strategy is an experiment, with a potential to backfire quite spectacularly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Look at the upside. The money I've saved on train fares this week has been spent on beer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Have you got Slack or Discord or something? You need somewhere where you can do background chatter that you can dip in and out of. Don't just try to recreate office meetings online, embrace the whole medium...
    Get them over the PB...and we can discuss the merits of various pizza toppings and favourite Christmas movies.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sure it must have been posted earlier but missed it.

    Electoral commission recommending delay in London mayoral elections til the Autumn.

    They were calling for postponement of the locals earlier today. The other Mr Rook suggested that primary legislation would be required; I dare say that won't be long in coming.

    Local elections in the middle of a pandemic are an unnecessary risk to public health, an unnecessary distraction to the local authorities themselves, and badly distracting and potentially replacing the leadership of those authorities mid-crisis is totally nuts. They're bound to be kicked into the long grass for the duration.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Great piece Cyclefree articulaing one of of my grearest fears at the moment.

    It is a good piece.

    It looks like we have to re-learn these lessons every few generations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Genuine question: a few days ago the government was going to have 10,000 tests a day. Now there are going to be none, other than for those in hospital.

    What is the reason for this?

    That was the strangest thing I heard. They were going for the South Korea model and then today just totally pivoted to the opposite extreme, without explaining any reason why they were no longer interesting in screening the public at large.
    That is another element which nudges me towards my conclusion of surrender to it.
    If you’re just letting rip, what’s the point in ramping up testing ?
    I think the logic is if the infection rate is as high as expected then mass testing is a waste of time.

    It is useful at the start of the pandemic to try and find who has it, and do contact testing for the positive.
    So they think SK approach is a waste of time? Even though they seem to be catching clusters of outbreaks and shutting them down?
    The South Korean approach seems to be working on the assumption that if we contain it then it'll all be fine, but all it needs is a further outbreak later on and they are fecked.
    No, that's not how it works. What they (and Japan etc) are doing is reducing the probability that in any given case, you give it to someone else. If the average sufferer passes it on to less than one person, the number of cases will decline, regardless of how many there are.
    That's if the methods can be sustained in the long term (months, not weeks).
    That's not true.

    Right now, the growth is say 25% more cases per day. So that means on average, each infected person infects someone every four days.

    A two week complete lockdown would mean that three cycles of this are missed (outside transmission in the home), and that a large number of people who were infectious cease being so.

    Of course, when restrictions are relaxed, the number of cases will flare up again. But that's the way this is managed. A series of (say) lockdowns every two months. Unpleasant. But not fatal.
    Your last point was my point exactly. For that strategy to work, they have to sustain it for the duration, as there will be no herd immunity to protect them further down the line.
    Except that (1) this strategy avoids health systems becoming overloaded, (2) each time around there are slightly more people who are immune to the disease, so the growth should be more moderate, and (3) at some point a vaccine will be found.

    We'll also get better at testing and isolation, so that future outbreaks should be identified more easily.

    It's disruptive, but it's far from an existential threat.
    For some people it is exactly that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Thanks to CycleFree for another interesting article.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mikel Arteta tests positive for coronavirus.

    That's the Premier League finished.

    I say null and void all results....fairs fair.
    You have to hand it to Liverpool, they’ve had a great go. They couldn’t get over the line this year, but there will be other years. They can be justly proud.
    Bit like when Gerrard slipped.
    Yes, a simple mistake at a critical time. They will look back on the Watford game and forever wonder “if only”. In some ways, I suppose they only have themselves to blame.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Have you got Slack or Discord or something? You need somewhere where you can do background chatter that you can dip in and out of. Don't just try to recreate office meetings online, embrace the whole medium...
    We have Slack coming out of our ears. Too much Slack. It has been an intense week, lower capability due to home working, but greater demand to react to the market conditions - all with an anxious backdrop.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    An interesting piece but I’d counter it with two observations:

    a) We’ve recently seen an example of the courts putting Gvt in its place and we should be gladdened by that; and

    b) Even in the case of the Labour Party, it seems to be in the process of correcting its errors.

    Basically, I think we have good checks and balances in this country. But you’re right that we should be cautious.

    True - up to a point.

    But note that the response to (a) has been a manifesto promise to stop the courts doing so. That is a promise to remove or reduce an important check and balance.

    On (b) I am not so sure. Labour have said all sorts of good things. Even Corbyn did so. Action has been lacking. There is a reason for that and I am not at all convinced that Labour has really inquired into why that is.

    And, second, the fact that Labour’s immune system was so weak that the virus of anti-semitism took hold so easily is what is concerning. Again I am not sure that Labour has really understood why it has rotted and weakened from the inside. Until it does it is hard to make really effective changes.

    It’s a change of culture which is needed not simply a better disciplinary system.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    Am I right in assuming that someon who has had Covid-19 and recovered is no longer infectious? (In contrast to, say, HIV)

    Yes, though it does take a few weeks to no longer shed virus.
    Thanks - so, unless it mutates, once you've survived it you're no longer at risk yourself or a risk to others.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    This is an enormous gamble on the herd immunity theory given how little we fully understand about the virus. This strategy is an experiment, with a potential to backfire quite spectacularly.
    We are told with MMR that "herd immunity" requires an 80-90% rate of immunity from vaccination. To get to those levels with COVID19 requires a "take it on the chin" approach.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    If this is close to true then known cases in the US are going to shoot up very soon.

    Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus
    A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.

    Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said at a press conference alongside Gov. Mike DeWine (R) that given that the virus is spreading in the community in Ohio, she estimates at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.

    "We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    eadric said:

    RobD said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    What are your success/failure criteria?
    All the data says we will be at Italian levels of infection within two weeks. ie 15,000 cases. 1500 critical cases, and nightmare. So within a fortnight we will know for SURE.

    My guess is that within 7 days we will know if we are following that trajectory. ie Italy had 3000 cases about a week ago. If we have 3000 cases in a week we will know that we are on the Italian path and Boris and Co have made a tragic and epochal mistake.
    According to Worldometer the UK has 20 critical cases; Italy has 1,153. Maybe that's what makes the UK advisers think we're 4 weeks behind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Am I right in assuming that someon who has had Covid-19 and recovered is no longer infectious? (In contrast to, say, HIV)

    Yes, though it does take a few weeks to no longer shed virus.
    Thanks - so, unless it mutates, once you've survived it you're no longer at risk yourself or a risk to others.
    Even then, mutations tend to be by drift rather than shift, so there would be a degree of immunity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Cyclefree said:

    An interesting piece but I’d counter it with two observations:

    a) We’ve recently seen an example of the courts putting Gvt in its place and we should be gladdened by that; and

    b) Even in the case of the Labour Party, it seems to be in the process of correcting its errors.

    Basically, I think we have good checks and balances in this country. But you’re right that we should be cautious.

    True - up to a point.

    But note that the response to (a) has been a manifesto promise to stop the courts doing so. That is a promise to remove or reduce an important check and balance.

    On (b) I am not so sure. Labour have said all sorts of good things. Even Corbyn did so. Action has been lacking. There is a reason for that and I am not at all convinced that Labour has really inquired into why that is.

    And, second, the fact that Labour’s immune system was so weak that the virus of anti-semitism took hold so easily is what is concerning. Again I am not sure that Labour has really understood why it has rotted and weakened from the inside. Until it does it is hard to make really effective changes.

    It’s a change of culture which is needed not simply a better disciplinary system.
    It is wort noting that Labour hasn't actually dealt with the anti-semitism problem yet. Kind of squashed it into a corner, but the people concerned haven't been got rid of.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    The difference in approach between the UK and a country like Belgium is rather worrying. They can't both be right.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    The Premier League has released a statement:

    “In light of Arsenal’s announcement tonight confirming that their first-team coach Mikel Arteta has tested positive for COVID-19, the Premier League will convene an emergency club meeting tomorrow morning regarding future fixtures.”

    And I thought TSE was just having a bit of fun when he mooted the possibility that Liverpool might be robbed of their title by covid-19.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Apparently Macron just spoke to the nation, that's the first time he has done so on this crisis. I find that Macron and Merkel really haven't spoken much quite astonishing.

    Merkel gave a detailed press conference yesterday.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1238132638650695681?

    Trump, for the third time, reaffirms his support of unifying Ireland.

    I need to stop watching Trump videos. I’m wince-d out.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    It's possible. There were 460 cases yesterday in the UK; Italy was at that number on February 26th, or two weeks ago. It took Italy four days to go from 100 to 500 cases; the UK took seven days. Who knows?
  • United - 20
    Covid - 19
    Liverpool - 18
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1238132638650695681?

    Trump, for the third time, reaffirms his support of unifying Ireland.

    I need to stop watching Trump videos. I’m wince-d out.
    This is even by Trump standards up there with the weirdest / crazy one (watch to the end).

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8104723/Trump-caught-hot-mic-complaining-ink-stain-shirt-coronavirus-address.html
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    Cyclefree said:

    Marcus01 said:

    A rerun of the same argument that ran in the Thatcher years from thinly disguised political opponents masquerading as independents. Guardian reading folk always hate blue governments pandering to the needs of the great unwashed, this post is from the same mould. Of course treasured institutions like the legal system, civil service and the media will be up for reform when they've so patently been running an agenda against the wishes of a majority. Death of democracy? Or a democracy actually asserting itself?

    I haven’t read the Guardian for years, apart from occasional articles posted on here or sent to me by friends and family. I was banned, in fact, by Comment is Free for pointing out many of the hypocrisies and other idiocies inflicted on their readers by some of their journalists: Seamus Milne and Ms Toynbee were particular targets of mine.

    It was great fun until I got banned. :(

    You have not noted that one of my biggest criticisms in the header is reserved for Labour and its supporters, of whom the Guardian is one. Not me.
    I wasn't having a go at you, I was just pointing out we've been here before and survived. I'm not convinced extremism is on the rise, and I think our democracy is working exactly as it should. Even the monarchy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    eadric said:

    RobD said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    What are your success/failure criteria?
    All the data says we will be at Italian levels of infection within two weeks. ie 15,000 cases. 1500 critical cases, and nightmare. So within a fortnight we will know for SURE.

    My guess is that within 7 days we will know if we are following that trajectory. ie Italy had 3000 cases about a week ago. If we have 3000 cases in a week we will know that we are on the Italian path and Boris and Co have made a tragic and epochal mistake.
    According to Worldometer the UK has 20 critical cases; Italy has 1,153. Maybe that's what makes the UK advisers think we're 4 weeks behind.
    Yes - providing you make allowances for different demographics, the critical case count would yield valuable data across countries with very different testing regimes.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,241

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    This is an enormous gamble on the herd immunity theory given how little we fully understand about the virus. This strategy is an experiment, with a potential to backfire quite spectacularly.
    That's where the science inevitably shades into political judgement. Arguably the optimum solution is to let the number of cases run right up to the limit of what the NHS can cope with, do the lockdown then to reduce the numbers and keep repeating until there's enough herd immunity in the population. The question is how close to health service collapse are you willing to go before applying the brakes?

    Do you feel lucky?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    FF43 said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    It's possible. There were 460 cases yesterday in the UK; Italy was at that number on February 26th, or two weeks ago. It took Italy four days to go from 100 to 500 cases; the UK took seven days. Who knows?
    Its not the way the maths works. It does look slower than Italy, and it might well be less concentrated in one area, but the math doesn't say it will be 4 weeks.

    I can only imagine they are working on the theory that actually in Northern Italy it was widespread way before that and little testing so didn't pick it up, so the true numbers aren't comparable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Models are only as good as the assumptions behind them. Sometimes they’re more voodoo than science really. But they create a nice big figleaf.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Andy_JS said:

    The difference in approach between the UK and a country like Belgium is rather worrying. They can't both be right.
    Generally locking everything down may not do a great deal in the long term but if people have got see their granny's die they want to know that everything that possibly can be done has been done to prevent it.

    If Boris thinks people will thank him for doing nothing while they watch their granny dying he'd better think again and get real! Whatever Tory party is left after this will have him out quicker than he can say Brexit! ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    eadric said:

    The Premier League has released a statement:

    “In light of Arsenal’s announcement tonight confirming that their first-team coach Mikel Arteta has tested positive for COVID-19, the Premier League will convene an emergency club meeting tomorrow morning regarding future fixtures.”

    And I thought TSE was just having a bit of fun when he mooted the possibility that Liverpool might be robbed of their title by covid-19.

    The EPL is finished. Likewise the UCL, the euros, and probably the Lympix. That much is clear
    Sure I saw something to the effect that the Olympics are likely to be postponed.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    This is an enormous gamble on the herd immunity theory given how little we fully understand about the virus. This strategy is an experiment, with a potential to backfire quite spectacularly.
    We are told with MMR that "herd immunity" requires an 80-90% rate of immunity from vaccination. To get to those levels with COVID19 requires a "take it on the chin" approach.
    To be fair that's just because of how infectious Measles is, you're still looking at needing 50-66% for this virus though.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Andy_JS said:

    The difference in approach between the UK and a country like Belgium is rather worrying. They can't both be right.
    Belgium are going to keep pubs closed for 3 months ? Good luck.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited March 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    An interesting piece but I’d counter it with two observations:

    a) We’ve recently seen an example of the courts putting Gvt in its place and we should be gladdened by that; and

    b) Even in the case of the Labour Party, it seems to be in the process of correcting its errors.

    Basically, I think we have good checks and balances in this country. But you’re right that we should be cautious.

    True - up to a point.

    But note that the response to (a) has been a manifesto promise to stop the courts doing so. That is a promise to remove or reduce an important check and balance.

    On (b) I am not so sure. Labour have said all sorts of good things. Even Corbyn did so. Action has been lacking. There is a reason for that and I am not at all convinced that Labour has really inquired into why that is.

    And, second, the fact that Labour’s immune system was so weak that the virus of anti-semitism took hold so easily is what is concerning. Again I am not sure that Labour has really understood why it has rotted and weakened from the inside. Until it does it is hard to make really effective changes.

    It’s a change of culture which is needed not simply a better disciplinary system.
    Fair points. On Labour I might just be too much of an optimist. And on the first point, perhaps (similarly) I have faith in the final Bill being a watered down nothing.

    I hope I’m right.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Have you got Slack or Discord or something? You need somewhere where you can do background chatter that you can dip in and out of. Don't just try to recreate office meetings online, embrace the whole medium...

    Jonathan said:

    I think the government has the right approach in delaying the big measures to the last possible moment. My team have been working at home for a few days and everyone agrees they nearly had enough. Video conferencing is no substitute for human interaction.

    Have you got Slack or Discord or something? You need somewhere where you can do background chatter that you can dip in and out of. Don't just try to recreate office meetings online, embrace the whole medium...
    Better still, slash the number of group meetings. Most of them are a waste of time anyway.

    I am a phone man, old fashioned I know, but I find calling one key person is quicker, more pleasant and leads to better things than videoconferencing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    eadric said:

    The Premier League has released a statement:

    “In light of Arsenal’s announcement tonight confirming that their first-team coach Mikel Arteta has tested positive for COVID-19, the Premier League will convene an emergency club meeting tomorrow morning regarding future fixtures.”

    And I thought TSE was just having a bit of fun when he mooted the possibility that Liverpool might be robbed of their title by covid-19.

    The EPL is finished. Likewise the UCL, the euros, and probably the Lympix. That much is clear
    Sure I saw something to the effect that the Olympics are likely to be postponed.
    There's no option but to postpone it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    This is an enormous gamble on the herd immunity theory given how little we fully understand about the virus. This strategy is an experiment, with a potential to backfire quite spectacularly.
    That's where the science inevitably shades into political judgement. Arguably the optimum solution is to let the number of cases run right up to the limit of what the NHS can cope with, do the lockdown then to reduce the numbers and keep repeating until there's enough herd immunity in the population. The question is how close to health service collapse are you willing to go before applying the brakes?

    Do you feel lucky?
    Really, you do need to anticipate that point by a couple of weeks, or you guarantee an ICU overcrowding crisis.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    FF43 said:

    eadric said:

    If the government thinks we are really "4 weeks behind Italy" we are about to find out, in the next week, if they have made the gravest error in recent British history.

    If they are wrong I will never vote Tory again. I might well be dead anyway. If they are right, I honour their intellectual bravery and audacity.

    It's possible. There were 460 cases yesterday in the UK; Italy was at that number on February 26th, or two weeks ago. It took Italy four days to go from 100 to 500 cases; the UK took seven days. Who knows?
    Its not the way the maths works. It does look slower than Italy, and it might well be less concentrated in one area, but the math doesn't say it will be 4 weeks.

    I can only imagine they are working on the theory that actually in Northern Italy it was widespread way before that and little testing so didn't pick it up, so the true numbers aren't comparable.
    I think what you’re seeing is that SAGE isn’t directly comparing reported numbers.
This discussion has been closed.