I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Mother-in-law died this evening, not of the virus, just old age - she was 92. She went peacefully. Her last words were “That’s lovely”, as my wife tucked her up in bed. She then fell into her last sleep. It’s been the most extraordinary year. I have seen up close what I already knew: my wife is an extraordinary woman with unlimited resources of selfless love. What she gave her Mum over these last 15 months is as close to holy as I will ever know.
Sincere condolences, Southam. As others have said, that's a beautiful and uplifting post.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
Yes a missed opportunity for the BBC and a failure in its duty for public education.
Not nationally. I think that is why it has a small x. There are a few specific places where schools have closed, and as of now I have not read of any state closing all schools. In Germany education like health "is a state matter" so the federal government could only advise on schools closing anyway.
The chancellor chaired an emergency session of the conference of minister presidents in the afternoon and evening hours. After the session was closed a 60 min press conference was broadcast live on the news channels, accompanied by Söder, who announced that the Bavarian cabinet will decide tomorrow and hinted at impending state wide school closures, probably after the weekend. The other states will presumably follow.
Great piece Cyclefree articulaing one of of my grearest fears at the moment.
Thank you very much.
This is not just a lesson for Labour. It is a lesson for voters too. Over 10 million of them rationalised away any queasiness they may have felt and voted for a party which shares the unenviable claim of being, like the neo-Nazi BNP, investigated by the EHRC for anti-semitism and institutional racism. This was not a deal-breaker.
If it's any consolation to the understandably subdued response to your piece, @Cyclefree, I found it of the highest quality and the paragraph above really hit home. It rendered me very self-reflective about some of my moral qualms over recent votes.
The antisemitism issue genuinely caused me to pause over my ballot paper before I put the cross next to Labour, as did my disagreements with their Brexit policy. I was effectively voting in a race for second place versus the Lib Dems, in a Tory seat that has been overhauled in the past but clearly wouldn't in this election. I knew the local candidate was an all-round community person and good egg. Immediately after the election she unleashed a blistering and insightful attack on social media aimed at the party leadership and I think you'd thoroughly have approved of her. I genuinely view my vote as for a candidate not just a party. I don't know if that makes what I did "all right" but it reduced my guilt over it, as did the fact I felt my vote was in the pursuit of another philosophically democratic (I hate safe seats - both for disempowering local voters and making lazy MPs - and wanted to keep the size of the majority down) and, on a more purely political one, I also viewed it as a negative "punishment vote" against the Lib Dems, who had realistic hopes of becoming the prime contender for the seat when it becomes competitive again (those readers unfortunate enough to have my opinions regularly inflicted upon them will know how I feel about their Brexit policy).
I tell myself a variety of stories about the meaning and purpose of my vote, but to a politician each ballot paper weighs the same! And that one, however I spin it, weighed in the Labour Party column, when I was fully aware of how many Jewish people felt genuinely threatened by that institution. A fact worth doing some hard reflecting on.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
The critical question is whether there really are currently 5,000-10,000 infections in the UK. Everything else follows from that. So I thought about it for a bit, wondered why Vallance was so confident and worked out how you might estimate it.
If you're confident in your contact-tracing and your testing then it follows that any cases you find that aren't linked to travel or another identified case must be caused by contacts that are carrying a mild enough form of the infection that isn't detectable by the current test. You can then estimate the number of mild cases using information on the spread of the community transmission cases. It's broadly similar to the way in which German tank production in WWII was estimated from serial numbers.
So I was reasonably convinced by the argument and the strategy, but then Whitty (as quoted by the Guardian) seemed to contradict Vallance by saying he had no idea how many people were currently infected. Now I'm terribly confused.
Tomorrow I am going to decide whether to get my boys up here - so that we are together as a family - or whether that is too much. They are both sensible chaps but they both sounded a bit worried this evening.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
You don't like the BBC's graphic. You didn't like the graphic yesterday. Have you got a graphic that you would like to see?
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
Reason for Liverpool to be hopeful - and surprise, surprise it's going to boil down to money.
If you wipe the season and there is no final league table with final league positions then there is no basis for awarding any prize money (as there is no "result").
No prize money would mean all TV broadcasting revenue would have to be divided equally between all PL clubs. Now it's not just Liverpool - do you think all the other big clubs will be happy with that? It would cost them all tens of millions each - on top of any amount the PL as a whole may lose if refunds have to be paid to broadcasters re the rights fees for games not played.
So it's going to be in an awful lot of clubs best interests that there is a final league table, not just Liverpool's.
Now how that table is determined will be open to debate. Maybe finish the season in July/August and start next season late? Or just play a few more rounds (eg two or three) in August and say it'll be a 32 game season? Or something else? But just wiping the whole season most likely creates even more problems.
Buying 3 weeks from Italy could be very crucial, gives us more time to decide if this is something that can be solved via quarantine, or whether it needs to burn through. Us deciding to let it burn through while other countries solve it via quarantine would be extremely unfortunate.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
Unfortunately, Farage does seem to have found a new populist bandwagon.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
This might of course explain partly why the Govt have backed away from the idea of ramping up testing. If they are pursuing a different path they won’t want this undermined by large numbers of low risk cases bumping up the numbers and making our position look bad. It is the hospitalisation and critical care stats that matter.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
You don't like the BBC's graphic. You didn't like the graphic yesterday. Have you got a graphic that you would like to see?
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
No? Thought not.
No, because it can't be reduced to a pretty picture.
When I say the BBC should explain, I actually mean they should try & communicate the complexity of it all -- including that other courses of action are possible and have advantages & disadvantages.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
I regret using the word 'gambling'. That's a bit strong. The science guys are predicting that this will work.
We're moving from out of the contain phase, but what steps did we ever take to try and contain the virus in the actual contain phase ?
Contact tracing, testing and isolation.
I've no problem with our contain stage given what has been said about the futility of travel planes.
My issue is upon announcing we are now in the delay stage the government has proceed to do fuck all to delay.
What support is being offered to the working poor who cannot afford to take 7 days off work?
There are other steps I would have liked to have seen from the government:-
1. A much firmer statement that people should, wherever possible, be working from home. 2. A plan for how we deal with the elderly and disabled who need social care and therefore visitors to feed, clean and wash etc. 3. If small businesses like pubs etc have to close temporarily, how will they be supported so that a whole sector is not wiped out. Perhaps some liaison with insurers is needed. A rise in unemployment is not optimal, after all.
I agree with all of these. I am willing to go along with the overall Government plan for tackling the virus but when it comes to detail I agree the sorts of things you mention need to be sorted quickly.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
I agree. It does look as though they can only delay things like shutting schools for a few days more, maximum.
Otherwise, it will be wall-to-wall Nigel Farage about how the Government has got this wrong and is sending people to the slaughterhouses.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
Unfortunately, Farage does seem to have found a new populist bandwagon.
I expect we will be seeing a lot of him.
Only because the BBC give him a massive pipe of oxygen.
At least with Brexit he was the the lead person for years. On virus planning: NO!!!!
He's just the loud bloke in the pub who shouts crap between puffs of his vaping machine.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
You don't like the BBC's graphic. You didn't like the graphic yesterday. Have you got a graphic that you would like to see?
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
No? Thought not.
No, because it can't be reduced to a pretty picture.
When I say the BBC should explain, I actually mean they should try & communicate the complexity of it all -- including that other courses of action are possible and have advantages & disadvantages.
Really I take it you didn't watch the press conference today then? There was a pretty picture that boiled most of it down and was part of the presentation. Similar to the figures I was pasting three weeks ago.
It would be fairly trivial adding some costs and QALYs overlayed and then showing net benefit. Ah well.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
You don't like the BBC's graphic. You didn't like the graphic yesterday. Have you got a graphic that you would like to see?
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
No? Thought not.
No, because it can't be reduced to a pretty picture.
When I say the BBC should explain, I actually mean they should try & communicate the complexity of it all -- including that other courses of action are possible and have advantages & disadvantages.
Really I take it you didn't watch the press conference today then? There was a pretty picture that boiled most of it down and was part of the presentation. Similar to the figures I was pasting three weeks ago.
It would be fairly trivial adding some costs and QALYs overlayed and then showing net benefit. Ah well.
Do it and post the figure to pb.com & I will take a look and hopefully be delighted.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
I agree. It does look as though they can only delay things like shutting schools for a few days more, maximum.
Otherwise, it will be wall-to-wall Nigel Farage about how the Government has got this wrong and is sending people to the slaughterhouses.
Farage talking bollx on BBC's new Farage Show should not deter the science guys from pressing on.
"Wearing a face mask to protect from the coronavirus could actually increase the risk of becoming infected, England’s deputy chief medical officer has warned.
Dr Jenny Harries said it was “not a good idea” for the public to wear facemasks as the virus can get trapped in the material and infect the wearer when they breathe in."
Worrying testimony from Lombardy: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia."
Thinking back, the longest I've ever gone without seeing someone is probably four days. Even then I was feeling weird, and I'm an introvert!
As a full time carer for the last five years, I can tell people that not seeing anyone other than your closest family, who your care for, for days, sometimes a week or two on end is a killer. An absolute killer.
Worrying testimony from Lombardy: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia."
Thinking back, the longest I've ever gone without seeing someone is probably four days. Even then I was feeling weird, and I'm an introvert!
As a full time carer for the last five years, I can tell people that not seeing anyone other than your closest family, who your care for, for days, sometimes a week or two on end is a killer. An absolute killer.
Yeah, doing that for 3-4 months wouldn't be fun. I suppose you'd get friendly with the delivery man from the government handing you your rations.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
He was on This Morning and GMTV as well, on ITV.
I don’t really get why
I'm a bit of a Farage fan - I'm a Brexiter, and without him I don't think Brexit would have happened - but I can't for the life of me see what he brings to the party as a talking head on Covid 19 - this seems like the broadcasters losing the plot. They might as well have been getting panicking thriller writers with a special interest in the black death in for their take on the situation...
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
He was on This Morning and GMTV as well, on ITV.
I don’t really get why
I'm a bit of a Farage fan - I'm a Brexiter, and without him I don't think Brexit would have happened - but I can't for the life of me see what he brings to the party as a talking head on Covid 19 - this seems like the broadcasters losing the plot. They might as well have been getting panicking thriller writers with a special interest in the black death in for their take on the situation...
The BBC needs to be very very careful here, not to thrown petrol over their own fire.
What on earth do the upper elites at the BBC think they are gaining by pumping Farage as the new People's Expert on the virus?
Cummings claims to be Mr Science. Johnson is already gunning for the Beeb.
How does the Beeb improve its chances of surviving in next licence round when it behaves like a set of lemmings???
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Newsnight saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
And what’s more Farage saying he’s wrong whilst lauding Trump!!!
Oh tell me I didn't read this!!! Farage was on Newsnight talking about virus? WTF
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
He was on This Morning and GMTV as well, on ITV.
I don’t really get why
I'm a bit of a Farage fan - I'm a Brexiter, and without him I don't think Brexit would have happened - but I can't for the life of me see what he brings to the party as a talking head on Covid 19 - this seems like the broadcasters losing the plot. They might as well have been getting panicking thriller writers with a special interest in the black death in for their take on the situation...
To be honest he could do everyone a favour - not least himself - by just keeping quiet or, if really pressed, making non-committal supportive noises. He certainly doesn't need to be allowing himself to be set up as opposing the medical expertise.
Thinking back, the longest I've ever gone without seeing someone is probably four days. Even then I was feeling weird, and I'm an introvert!
I'm not an introvert, but a week or two alone will be fine if needed - there's always PB to talk to! Find it hard to imagine someone convinced of the risk still feeling that they have to go and socialise every week. Meeting friends is good, being alive is even better. The challenge would have been harder pre-internet.
He's a well-known figure who disagrees with the current predominent narrative - really standard journalism to trot him out. As I often say, journalism is best understood as a branch of the entertainment industry.
Mother-in-law died this evening, not of the virus, just old age - she was 92. She went peacefully. Her last words were “That’s lovely”, as my wife tucked her up in bed. She then fell into her last sleep. It’s been the most extraordinary year. I have seen up close what I already knew: my wife is an extraordinary woman with unlimited resources of selfless love. What she gave her Mum over these last 15 months is as close to holy as I will ever know.
Thank you for warming us with your very inspiring post - and sympathies and all good wishes.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
The population has no immunity. Shutdowns will be effective for as long as they run, but once they end, or break down, the pandemic will restart. Until there is significant herd immunity (~70%+ have been infected) or a vaccine (mid-2021 earliest) this thing will keep going. Key is to focus its widest spread when our population and health services are at their most robust - in the summer - and possibly also a time when the virus is less robust, less transmittable.
Icelandic Chief Epidemiologist declares on National Tv that "Closing schools has minimal affect on the the spread of the virus". When asked about a ban on public gatherings he said "It is disputed whether a ban on public gatherings has much of an affect".
Completely off topic - global "sprawl map" created by authors who believe key to getting people to walk & effective public transport is the connectedness of streets - ie "joined up" not lots of cul-de-sacs - which of course is how many urban developers create new homes - zoomable to street level:
He's a well-known figure who disagrees with the current predominent narrative - really standard journalism to trot him out. As I often say, journalism is best understood as a branch of the entertainment industry.
Because Farage answers the producers' phone calls whereas the government does not because Dominic Cummings is running a vendetta against the BBC and media in general.
He's a well-known figure who disagrees with the current predominent narrative - really standard journalism to trot him out. As I often say, journalism is best understood as a branch of the entertainment industry.
Because Farage answers the producers' phone calls whereas the government does not because Dominic Cummings is running a vendetta against the BBC and media in general.
Ah, yes - it's Dominic Cummings' fault that the producers are idiots...
Completely off topic - global "sprawl map" created by authors who believe key to getting people to walk & effective public transport is the connectedness of streets - ie "joined up" not lots of cul-de-sacs - which of course is how many urban developers create new homes - zoomable to street level:
Completely off topic - global "sprawl map" created by authors who believe key to getting people to walk & effective public transport is the connectedness of streets - ie "joined up" not lots of cul-de-sacs - which of course is how many urban developers create new homes - zoomable to street level:
Completely off topic - global "sprawl map" created by authors who believe key to getting people to walk & effective public transport is the connectedness of streets - ie "joined up" not lots of cul-de-sacs - which of course is how many urban developers create new homes - zoomable to street level:
Their criteria seem to be based on accessibility by car / vehicle, and a belief that accessibility by these is what increases walkability. I would argue the opposite, and that this undermines their analysis. It's a classic "results skewed by only measuring that for which readable data exists".
For example,
1 - There are streets near me they mark as dead end, where there are walking / cycling routes through.
2 - I see no account taken of eg then UK having 100k miles of "Public Footpaths", vs Ireland having essentially having no such concept.
3 - In the Netherlands, extending use of travel by foot / cycle has been done successfully precisely by restricting easy access by vehicle.
Thinking back, the longest I've ever gone without seeing someone is probably four days. Even then I was feeling weird, and I'm an introvert!
I'm not an introvert, but a week or two alone will be fine if needed - there's always PB to talk to! Find it hard to imagine someone convinced of the risk still feeling that they have to go and socialise every week. Meeting friends is good, being alive is even better. The challenge would have been harder pre-internet.
It may become problematic if it turns into 4 or 5, or 7 or 8 weeks.
Having lost my remaining parent before Christmas, I ended up home alone (!) for the whole of January and part of Feb with the winter fluey bug. A small number of close friends were critical for phone contact and the occasional errand, and a couple of weekend visits from family.
Interest from long out-of-touch friends was heartening.
Fine for a week or two. Potentially painful for a month or two.
Have a project you enjoy that will take a couple of hundred hours at home ready to roll.
A timely piece, @Cyclefree. The most important point is about the voters, who have decided in relation to both main parties to ignore disqualifying behaviour in favour of pursuing their ideological preferences. This will not end well.
Despite rumours and an early track that suggested the cruise ship Braemar - which has an infected passenger and Corona slowly spreading through the crew - might be heading across the Atlantic, it has now pitched up in the Bahamas as per Plan A.
But Bahamas has now refused to allow the ship to dock, offering humanitarian aid if needed but not allowing anyone to disembark. So this ship is now somewhat stuck. In all likelihood it will have to set off across the North Atlantic after wasting a couple of days.
I think the Newsnight graphic is very disappointing.
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
You don't like the BBC's graphic. You didn't like the graphic yesterday. Have you got a graphic that you would like to see?
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
No? Thought not.
No, because it can't be reduced to a pretty picture.
When I say the BBC should explain, I actually mean they should try & communicate the complexity of it all -- including that other courses of action are possible and have advantages & disadvantages.
Did you actually watch #newsnight? Because that was exactly what they did.
Though the government continued it's silly policy of not making anyone available.
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
The population has no immunity. Shutdowns will be effective for as long as they run, but once they end, or break down, the pandemic will restart. Until there is significant herd immunity (~70%+ have been infected) or a vaccine (mid-2021 earliest) this thing will keep going. Key is to focus its widest spread when our population and health services are at their most robust - in the summer - and possibly also a time when the virus is less robust, less transmittable.
Or the virus could fizzle out over the next months as it seems to have done in China. As did SARS, MERS and Ebola. Viruses do not always persist in the wild, they can mutate to less virulent forms.
Assuming the government figures are correct, and we have 5 to 10 k of cases in their early stages, we are a week or two off chaos on ICU, just with existing cases, without new infections.
I hope the hands off approach doesn't extend to acquiring PPE. We are going to need warehouses of it.
Not according to the Guardian. Nor has the Netherlands.
Nor has the USA, so that chart looks like fake news.
No it’s not. Lots of school districts in the worst affected areas have closed or will from Monday. I think the small “x” means “limited” or “in some areas”
To go back to Germany, AFAIK only Saarland has closed schools so far. Plenty of places have banned large gatherings so that should be a small x.
Wonder what Begium’s policy of closing all pubs will do for alcoholism levels? People drinking at home, with less supervision, and where the cost is far less. I reckon they might unleash a different public health crisis.
I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
@DavidL: I am at higher risk than some because of my health issue, I am very worried about what this will do to my daughter’s business and to my sons searching for employment. I have over 30 cousins, spouses, children and aunts and uncles in Italy. My own work has dried up for the moment.
So yes this is very worrying indeed. But I am not going to dwell on it every moment of my waking day.
But while semi-self-isolated up here in deepest rural Cumbria I am reading and thinking and writing about other things. Because we can both walk and chew gum at the same time, right?
Yes, thanks for trying to get PB to talk of other things, and I think that we do need to revisit it when things are settled.
Thinking back, the longest I've ever gone without seeing someone is probably four days. Even then I was feeling weird, and I'm an introvert!
I'm not an introvert, but a week or two alone will be fine if needed - there's always PB to talk to! Find it hard to imagine someone convinced of the risk still feeling that they have to go and socialise every week. Meeting friends is good, being alive is even better. The challenge would have been harder pre-internet.
It may become problematic if it turns into 4 or 5, or 7 or 8 weeks.
Having lost my remaining parent before Christmas, I ended up home alone (!) for the whole of January and part of Feb with the winter fluey bug. A small number of close friends were critical for phone contact and the occasional errand, and a couple of weekend visits from family.
Interest from long out-of-touch friends was heartening.
Fine for a week or two. Potentially painful for a month or two.
Have a project you enjoy that will take a couple of hundred hours at home ready to roll.
The headlines on the news this morning have been suggesting that the elderly and vulnerable may soon be told to go into self-isolation for as long as three months. That must be part of the Government's calculations, in terms of putting off telling them to start for as long as they think they can get away with it.
As a broad trend, people tend to become more and more creatures of habit and to get more stubborn with age. Extreme social isolation is also immiserating. The temptation to leave the house after a week or two (to visit friends, go shopping, go to church, whatever) will be enormous for a lot of people, let alone after a quarter of a year - and, frankly, will only be the greater if reports of significant numbers of casualties haven't started to appear in the news by the time all those frustrated people start to get itchy feet.
Kids just hate hearing “Go to your room an play on your XBox!” ?
Not everyone has an Xbox and not everyone is obsessed with playing it non stop. What a silly post. And god knows what these extreme lock down will do for people’s mental health.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
The population has no immunity. Shutdowns will be effective for as long as they run, but once they end, or break down, the pandemic will restart. Until there is significant herd immunity (~70%+ have been infected) or a vaccine (mid-2021 earliest) this thing will keep going. Key is to focus its widest spread when our population and health services are at their most robust - in the summer - and possibly also a time when the virus is less robust, less transmittable.
Or the virus could fizzle out over the next months as it seems to have done in China. As did SARS, MERS and Ebola. Viruses do not always persist in the wild, they can mutate to less virulent forms.
Assuming the government figures are correct, and we have 5 to 10 k of cases in their early stages, we are a week or two off chaos on ICU, just with existing cases, without new infections.
I hope the hands off approach doesn't extend to acquiring PPE. We are going to need warehouses of it.
If the estimates I have seen prove correct, that should produce about 250 intensive care patients spread across the whole country?
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.
The second point is important and one that a lot of people are overlooking in commenting on Italy. Italy has one province going on Wuhan and the rest of the country like the UK. Using Italy-wide statistics as a projection for other countries could be misleading.
On the last point, I suspect it’s mostly that we tend to hear of any famous people and they get more coverage. But they also lead less routine lives and therefore encounter more risk, I guess. The same as politicians.
People feeling that they are no longer top dog, as they should be
Sir, Your pages overflow with predictions of disaster brought on by the Brexit/Trump axis. Leaving aside the depressing and repetitive pointlessness of this mass guesswork, its underlying assumption — that things were better when People Like Us were in charge — is at best dubious, at worst delusional. Under PLU rule, we have two failed wars and the Middle East in flames, China expansionist, Europe enfeebled, America ineffective and Russia resurgent. At home, we have banking crises, stagnant median incomes, uncontrolled borders, record indebtedness, profiteering by the “professional” classes, and general social polarisation. This is the Eden from which the rude and licentious electorates have expelled us?
Face it. We FT readers had our decades in charge and we blew it for everyone but us. Time for us to do what we’ve been telling the rest of them to do for years, and suck it up. Or go forth and earn the respect that regains power.
People feeling that they are no longer top dog, as they should be
Sir, Your pages overflow with predictions of disaster brought on by the Brexit/Trump axis. Leaving aside the depressing and repetitive pointlessness of this mass guesswork, its underlying assumption — that things were better when People Like Us were in charge — is at best dubious, at worst delusional. Under PLU rule, we have two failed wars and the Middle East in flames, China expansionist, Europe enfeebled, America ineffective and Russia resurgent. At home, we have banking crises, stagnant median incomes, uncontrolled borders, record indebtedness, profiteering by the “professional” classes, and general social polarisation. This is the Eden from which the rude and licentious electorates have expelled us?
Face it. We FT readers had our decades in charge and we blew it for everyone but us. Time for us to do what we’ve been telling the rest of them to do for years, and suck it up. Or go forth and earn the respect that regains power.
I’m sorry but this just seems totally irrelevant at the moment. We are in real danger of economic collapse. We are facing the premature death of at least tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens. Our country has made an incredibly ballsy call to accept this, to almost uniquely not close schools, to continue to meet at large sporting events and to continue with our social life in the face of death. I really can’t think of anything else.
@DavidL: I am at higher risk than some because of my health issue, I am very worried about what this will do to my daughter’s business and to my sons searching for employment. I have over 30 cousins, spouses, children and aunts and uncles in Italy. My own work has dried up for the moment.
So yes this is very worrying indeed. But I am not going to dwell on it every moment of my waking day.
But while semi-self-isolated up here in deepest rural Cumbria I am reading and thinking and writing about other things. Because we can both walk and chew gum at the same time, right?
I am sure you are right that it is healthy to do so but I am finding I can’t. My work has not dried up, quite the reverse actually, but I am finding it increasingly hard to concentrate on it. We are seeing a disaster unfolding before our eyes in real time. Our government thinks that the right thing to do is not to even try to stop it. They may be right, they may be catastrophically wrong. Either way several people we know or even ourselves are going to die as a consequence. I am obsessed, I don’t deny it. Best wishes to you and yours.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
The population has no immunity. Shutdowns will be effective for as long as they run, but once they end, or break down, the pandemic will restart. Until there is significant herd immunity (~70%+ have been infected) or a vaccine (mid-2021 earliest) this thing will keep going. Key is to focus its widest spread when our population and health services are at their most robust - in the summer - and possibly also a time when the virus is less robust, less transmittable.
Or the virus could fizzle out over the next months as it seems to have done in China. As did SARS, MERS and Ebola. Viruses do not always persist in the wild, they can mutate to less virulent forms.
Assuming the government figures are correct, and we have 5 to 10 k of cases in their early stages, we are a week or two off chaos on ICU, just with existing cases, without new infections.
I hope the hands off approach doesn't extend to acquiring PPE. We are going to need warehouses of it.
Your former scenario is the one where the UK approach ends up looking somewhere between foolish and reckless, of course.
Gulp. People seem excited that Boris stood behind a podium and did something different. A different battle plan that will *definitely* cause more short term deaths. In the long run who knows? But that's the gamble.
Meanwhile those in the front line are bracing themselves to go over the top. Our fantastic NHS workers good luck. Likewise our teachers will be on the frontline too. Many will be high risk and exposed to this virus. Good luck.
It seems to me, as a complete amateur, that they are gambling that this wont go away. One infectious person returning to China will kick it all off again once the Chinese come out of their welded apartments.
That's exactly what it is. One hell of a gamble. The next 2 months in the UK are going to get extremely panicky.
I wonder if anyone in the ministry of propaganda can top "keep calm and carry on"?
Keep calm and carry on is all very effective when the world is going to pot. But what when Italy, Spain, and France are levelling off in cases and we're still soaring? The long term benefits can be quite hard to explain to those in fear of their lives.
The population has no immunity. Shutdowns will be effective for as long as they run, but once they end, or break down, the pandemic will restart. Until there is significant herd immunity (~70%+ have been infected) or a vaccine (mid-2021 earliest) this thing will keep going. Key is to focus its widest spread when our population and health services are at their most robust - in the summer - and possibly also a time when the virus is less robust, less transmittable.
Or the virus could fizzle out over the next months as it seems to have done in China. As did SARS, MERS and Ebola. Viruses do not always persist in the wild, they can mutate to less virulent forms.
Assuming the government figures are correct, and we have 5 to 10 k of cases in their early stages, we are a week or two off chaos on ICU, just with existing cases, without new infections.
I hope the hands off approach doesn't extend to acquiring PPE. We are going to need warehouses of it.
If the estimates I have seen prove correct, that should produce about 250 intensive care patients spread across the whole country?
Between 250 and 1000 by Sunday week, based upon current government figures. They are not likely to be evenly spread, there will be particular hotspots.
Comments
The BBC claims its brief is public service broadcasting. Here is a genuinely complex area, in which there is a role for public education and explication. Especially when the BBC is under pressure to justify its existence, here is something they could use to demonstrate their usefulness.
Both the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are interlocking and worthy of serious attempts at explanation. The public health aspects are important and need communicating to people without scientific backgrounds.
Here is a real opportunity for them. I wonder if they can take it.
What the BBC seems to be providing so far is shrill graphics, Nigel Farage on Question Time saying the Government is wrong and clusters of journalists talking about something they don't understand.
My bet is that the BBC are going to fail.
Dem 1.99 / 2
Rep 2 / 2.04
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128988348
Yes. It is going to get worse. A lot worse.
The avocado-on-toast generation are not processing this too well judging by twitter.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it
After the session was closed a 60 min press conference was broadcast live on the news channels, accompanied by Söder, who announced that the Bavarian cabinet will decide tomorrow and hinted at impending state wide school closures, probably after the weekend. The other states will presumably follow.
If it's any consolation to the understandably subdued response to your piece, @Cyclefree, I found it of the highest quality and the paragraph above really hit home. It rendered me very self-reflective about some of my moral qualms over recent votes.
The antisemitism issue genuinely caused me to pause over my ballot paper before I put the cross next to Labour, as did my disagreements with their Brexit policy. I was effectively voting in a race for second place versus the Lib Dems, in a Tory seat that has been overhauled in the past but clearly wouldn't in this election. I knew the local candidate was an all-round community person and good egg. Immediately after the election she unleashed a blistering and insightful attack on social media aimed at the party leadership and I think you'd thoroughly have approved of her. I genuinely view my vote as for a candidate not just a party. I don't know if that makes what I did "all right" but it reduced my guilt over it, as did the fact I felt my vote was in the pursuit of another philosophically democratic (I hate safe seats - both for disempowering local voters and making lazy MPs - and wanted to keep the size of the majority down) and, on a more purely political one, I also viewed it as a negative "punishment vote" against the Lib Dems, who had realistic hopes of becoming the prime contender for the seat when it becomes competitive again (those readers unfortunate enough to have my opinions regularly inflicted upon them will know how I feel about their Brexit policy).
I tell myself a variety of stories about the meaning and purpose of my vote, but to a politician each ballot paper weighs the same! And that one, however I spin it, weighed in the Labour Party column, when I was fully aware of how many Jewish people felt genuinely threatened by that institution. A fact worth doing some hard reflecting on.
Did I not write on this blog a few hours ago that the BBC must not fall into the trap of allowing Farage a new populist bandwagon by getting him on to talk about virus on newsnight, QT, Today etc ect. Something he knows absolutely nothing about and his views are down right dangerous.
For fuck sake - who is he? An ex-MEP and former metals futures trader. That's it.
Cummings, for all his faults, is probably backing the science guys here.
The BBC have just signed their own death warrant.
If you're confident in your contact-tracing and your testing then it follows that any cases you find that aren't linked to travel or another identified case must be caused by contacts that are carrying a mild enough form of the infection that isn't detectable by the current test. You can then estimate the number of mild cases using information on the spread of the community transmission cases. It's broadly similar to the way in which German tank production in WWII was estimated from serial numbers.
So I was reasonably convinced by the argument and the strategy, but then Whitty (as quoted by the Guardian) seemed to contradict Vallance by saying he had no idea how many people were currently infected. Now I'm terribly confused.
Best wishes to @SouthamObserver.
Tomorrow I am going to decide whether to get my boys up here - so that we are together as a family - or whether that is too much. They are both sensible chaps but they both sounded a bit worried this evening.
Goodnight to all.
Perhaps a conceptual drawing to explain how the science of the coronavirus, the epidemiology & the economics are all interlocking?
No? Thought not.
If you wipe the season and there is no final league table with final league positions then there is no basis for awarding any prize money (as there is no "result").
No prize money would mean all TV broadcasting revenue would have to be divided equally between all PL clubs. Now it's not just Liverpool - do you think all the other big clubs will be happy with that? It would cost them all tens of millions each - on top of any amount the PL as a whole may lose if refunds have to be paid to broadcasters re the rights fees for games not played.
So it's going to be in an awful lot of clubs best interests that there is a final league table, not just Liverpool's.
Now how that table is determined will be open to debate. Maybe finish the season in July/August and start next season late? Or just play a few more rounds (eg two or three) in August and say it'll be a 32 game season? Or something else? But just wiping the whole season most likely creates even more problems.
I expect we will be seeing a lot of him.
I don’t really get why
When I say the BBC should explain, I actually mean they should try & communicate the complexity of it all -- including that other courses of action are possible and have advantages & disadvantages.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/science-soap-kills-coronavirus-alcohol-based-disinfectants
Otherwise, it will be wall-to-wall Nigel Farage about how the Government has got this wrong and is sending people to the slaughterhouses.
At least with Brexit he was the the lead person for years. On virus planning: NO!!!!
He's just the loud bloke in the pub who shouts crap between puffs of his vaping machine.
It would be fairly trivial adding some costs and QALYs overlayed and then showing net benefit. Ah well.
1000x this.
https://twitter.com/jfc2204/status/1238253657050828802
Dr Jenny Harries said it was “not a good idea” for the public to wear facemasks as the virus can get trapped in the material and infect the wearer when they breathe in."
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/wearing-mask-may-increase-risk-of-infection-jzz6t0m2t
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152493575667718
Worrying testimony from Lombardy: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia."
Do they tell us? Surely they have the statistics.
What on earth do the upper elites at the BBC think they are gaining by pumping Farage as the new People's Expert on the virus?
Cummings claims to be Mr Science. Johnson is already gunning for the Beeb.
How does the Beeb improve its chances of surviving in next licence round when it behaves like a set of lemmings???
A lesson Rory should learn as well.
Cases
Italy: 15,113 +2,651
Spain: 3,146 +869
France: 2,876 +595
Germany: 2,745 +779
Switzerland: 868 +216
Norway: 792 +163
Sweden: 687 +187
Denmark: 674 +160
Netherlands: 614 +111
UK: 590 +130
Belgium: 399 +85
Austria: 361 +115
This is serious.
My default position is that Adonis talking shit. But he doesn't seem to be talking shit.
Shit. Shit. Shit.
Icelandic Chief Epidemiologist declares on National Tv that "Closing schools has minimal affect on the the spread of the virus". When asked about a ban on public gatherings he said "It is disputed whether a ban on public gatherings has much of an affect".
https://www.ruv.is/frett/samkomubanni-tharf-ad-beita-a-rettum-tima
https://www.sprawlmap.org/#globe
Farage was not on BBC1 Question Time or BBC2 Newsnight last night.
https://twitter.com/theviewfromll2/status/1238280148237025280?s=21
https://twitter.com/theviewfromll2/status/1238281182938312705?s=21
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8104781/Tom-Hanks-wife-Rita-Wilson-contracted-coronavirus-overseas-brought-Australia.html
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238288908431036423?s=20
12,000 deaths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1238310863137918977?s=20
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1238310865742573569?s=20
Public transport does not need to go down every street - it needs to go close enough to be accessible to those who live in every street.
Even in the bus / tram heyday, there were not bus routes down every terrace in Manchester.
For walking and cycling - yes, one key is a network that lets those modes be used everywhere with minimal interference from vehicles.
One lobby it is up against is the "secure by estate design" peeps, often the police.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1238317745080619009?s=20
https://sprawl.research.mcgill.ca/publications/2020-PNAS-sprawl/
Their criteria seem to be based on accessibility by car / vehicle, and a belief that accessibility by these is what increases walkability. I would argue the opposite, and that this undermines their analysis. It's a classic "results skewed by only measuring that for which readable data exists".
For example,
1 - There are streets near me they mark as dead end, where there are walking / cycling routes through.
2 - I see no account taken of eg then UK having 100k miles of "Public Footpaths", vs Ireland having essentially having no such concept.
3 - In the Netherlands, extending use of travel by foot / cycle has been done successfully precisely by restricting easy access by vehicle.
Having lost my remaining parent before Christmas, I ended up home alone (!) for the whole of January and part of Feb with the winter fluey bug. A small number of close friends were critical for phone contact and the occasional errand, and a couple of weekend visits from family.
Interest from long out-of-touch friends was heartening.
Fine for a week or two. Potentially painful for a month or two.
Have a project you enjoy that will take a couple of hundred hours at home ready to roll.
But Bahamas has now refused to allow the ship to dock, offering humanitarian aid if needed but not allowing anyone to disembark. So this ship is now somewhat stuck. In all likelihood it will have to set off across the North Atlantic after wasting a couple of days.
Won’t be a surprise when many more of the elites test positive. Meanwhile the proles may never know they had it.
It is possible some get preferential access, of course.
Though the government continued it's silly policy of not making anyone available.
1) On experts, I think it's okay for non-experts to comment on this. The principles seem fairly easy to understand. What we don't have are all the data that the government and their experts have. All we see are the headline numbers.
2) Following on from the first point, why is everyone comparing us to Italy in terms of cases? Who cares how many people have got this? What matters more is who's got it, how they got, where they are, where they've been, who've they've been in contact with, how ill are they? What I think matters more is how many people they are expecting to be hospitalised in the near future. That's the key calculation. The concentration - spatial as well as temporal - of the outbreak is critical.
3) From a statisticians point of view I find it interesting that so many "famous" people have got it. Either it's already spread massively through Western population, or the virus is spreading through the upper echelons of our societies as they are more likely to meet and greet. I guess it'll eventually find its way to the rest of us.
Assuming the government figures are correct, and we have 5 to 10 k of cases in their early stages, we are a week or two off chaos on ICU, just with existing cases, without new infections.
I hope the hands off approach doesn't extend to acquiring PPE. We are going to need warehouses of it.
Having some junior minister being gotcha’d by the next Paul Mason on a show watched by a dwindling audience is well less valuable.
The chancellor was on R4 and 5 yesterday.
As a broad trend, people tend to become more and more creatures of habit and to get more stubborn with age. Extreme social isolation is also immiserating. The temptation to leave the house after a week or two (to visit friends, go shopping, go to church, whatever) will be enormous for a lot of people, let alone after a quarter of a year - and, frankly, will only be the greater if reports of significant numbers of casualties haven't started to appear in the news by the time all those frustrated people start to get itchy feet.
On the last point, I suspect it’s mostly that we tend to hear of any famous people and they get more coverage. But they also lead less routine lives and therefore encounter more risk, I guess. The same as politicians.
People feeling that they are no longer top dog, as they should be
Sir, Your pages overflow with predictions of disaster brought on by the Brexit/Trump axis. Leaving aside the depressing and repetitive pointlessness of this mass guesswork, its underlying assumption — that things were better when People Like Us were in charge — is at best dubious, at worst delusional. Under PLU rule, we have two failed wars and the Middle East in flames, China expansionist, Europe enfeebled, America ineffective and Russia resurgent. At home, we have banking crises, stagnant median incomes, uncontrolled borders, record indebtedness, profiteering by the “professional” classes, and general social polarisation. This is the Eden from which the rude and licentious electorates have expelled us?
Face it. We FT readers had our decades in charge and we blew it for everyone but us. Time for us to do what we’ve been telling the rest of them to do for years, and suck it up. Or go forth and earn the respect that regains power.
https://www.ft.com/content/bafd65be-c22d-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354
History however suggests that this is precisely how people end up with something considerably worse.