Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
None, Take your child out of school and nail up your front door.
Which is effectively what we are doing. But that opens us up to prosecution for taking our child out of school.
Not if you do it with the consent of the school, commit to home schooling and request curriculum details from the school. Should be possible.
One parent was relating this process for her child (she was a vulnerable lung cancer survivor) on radio this am.
And again we have Sanders at the same price for both Nominee and POTUS.
Just reality - he ain't winning either.
ok I'll have a stab at this - Sanders only gets the nomination because Biden dies of Coronavirus. Biden dying of Coronavirus makes Sanders a shoo-in for the presidency because of something or other.
I am not sure if this issue has come up before, but with regard to Biden it doesn't take long (about a second) researching online to discover material which seems to have some sort of foundation suggesting that Biden is a bit handsy in ways which, in some respects, are even less acceptable than the repellent Trump. Has anyone got a view, and could this be an issue?
Scenario: you work, you've recently been in hospital with a respiratory problem, including time in ICU . You've got a young school aged child. You are not fully recovered from what put you in hospital and have reduced lung function.
What advice has the government given or actions it has taken that are actionable/useful for you?
None, Take your child out of school and nail up your front door.
Which is effectively what we are doing. But that opens us up to prosecution for taking our child out of school.
You mean you haven’t told the school about her new cough?
More seriously, I do not expect any schools to be worried about hitting any attendance targets just at the moment. I would be amazed at any prosecutions, you would have a pretty good defence, and ultimately the safety of your family is worth the risk of a fairly small fine.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
It's becoming clearer that the UK government thinks that it's positively desirable that a good chunk of the population gets the bug sooner or later, in order to build up herd immunity, and simply want to spread it over time to avoid overloading services. Other countries are trying to fight back against the spread and would be pleased if they can minimise it altogether.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides here. The British approach makes strategic sense against a recurrence of the virus and minimises economicdisruption, but may lead to more deaths in the short term. The Continental approach is better if the virus will mutate to the point that herd immunity is irrelevant, or if a vaccine appears, but if neither are true may lead to more deaths in the long term. I'm not sure which I prefer, and I'm not an expert so will simply hope for the best.
The US appears to worse than either, though, with a variety of random measures but a vulnerable population with limited free care and no obvious coherent strategy at all. Being a federation doesn't help either, as Germany has also found - as Merkel said when Berlin dragged its feet over local football matches, "Federalism is not an excuse for inaction."
Given that it is now everywhere - how on earth do countries think they can escape recurrency - the thing is that even if mutated versions arrive (and they will) the original version will still be spreading.
The theory (and practice) is that the less harmful mutation spreads faster and eventually replaces the more harmful one.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
Yes there are other countries following this policy, Germany is effectively doing the same thing.
Not quite. They are shutting some schools and banning large gatherings such as football matches. But their analysis certainly seems closer to ours than anyone elses.
Watching Man U play in Austria last night was bordering on pointless. An excellent performance, some superb goals but the whole thing had the feel of a training match without a crowd. I wondered how attractive these matches might be to broadcasters or viewers.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
Which has its attractions. First the obvious one that a lot of people live for an extra period. Second, as EiT says, you can use the time to prepare better - analyse the virus thoroughly, develop a vaccine, or even just strengthen the emergency care system for respiratory illness. "It's a disaster, let's let it happen gradually so we become used to dealing with disasters" is not a crazy strategy, but not obviously better than "Let's limit this disaster and try to limit it even more in future in the time that we've bought". Like I said below, I'm geuinely unsure.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Your keep implying that “the science” is incontestable. It is not - we are having to make several assumptions.
Of course I am not going to take Jeremy Hunt’s assessment of epidemiology over Chris Witty’s. But I am least going to be interested in a POV that arises from changing some assumptions.
I think the human behaviour angle is perhaps underestimated.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
This really chimes with the behavioural science basis of the advice for "not yet." I think it is tricky. Loneliness is a great enough affliction on many older members of society as it is and it is not conducive to good health or resilience.
If I was forced to self-isolate I would appreciate being allowed some exercise. I would have thought that going out for a walk or run at night when there is no-one else about should be OK.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
You must be comforted to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan. The two Nigels together in the same boat
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
It is a clear strategy. But the science is as yet not fully understood or agreed. And other strategies are available.
We seem to be willing to accept “more deaths now” for “less economic dislocation now” and “fewer deaths later”. But each of those terms is contestable.
At the end of all this, there is a clear metric -- total number of deaths due to COVID-19 per head of population over the course of the pandemic.
Our Government Scientists are acting to reduce that metric.
Many of the parameters of the epidemic are known to sufficient certainty. The uncertainty can be modelled in the inference from the data.
The only major unknown is when a vaccine will be routinely available to all. No-one has suggested a timescale less than a year for that -- and two years seems likely to me.
Also, I am not actually sure that the Government is behaving very differently to Germany or France or Spain. We are just behind them.
Media innumeracy and scientific illiteracy is bad enough when they are discussing merely political and economic issues, with health issues it becomes genuinely dangerous.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
I agree; the counter-argument I guess is that you have time to wait for a vaccine (except early 2021 sounds like the most advance date, and hiding away that long isn't realistic) or for the virus to mutate into a less harmful form. Mutation requires ongoing infection, so perhaps the UK will be doing some of the heavy lifting in that regard?
Fun question for the day: How prepared are we for the day of the virus which spreads like Covid 19, from which we have no immunity and has effects like ebola?
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
One reasonable point they might have made (though it's of little consolation to older teachers, who are being effectively told they are expendable) is that Britain has a much younger set of teachers than the rest of Europe.
(In Italy, for example, over half the teachers are over 50.)
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
Perhaps the BBC have a responsibility as a public service broadcaster to communicate the complexity of the subject to an audience that may not be scientifically literate ?
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Of Hunt that is rather disingenuous, bearing in mind the job was doing for most of the last ten years.
You may be right about Stewart, he is fast becoming the Farage of the centre-left.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
I agree; the counter-argument I guess is that you have time to wait for a vaccine (except early 2021 sounds like the most advance date, and hiding away that long isn't realistic) or for the virus to mutate into a less harmful form. Mutation requires ongoing infection, so perhaps the UK will be doing some of the heavy lifting in that regard?
Fun question for the day: How prepared are we for the day of the virus which spreads like Covid 19, from which we have no immunity and has effects like ebola?
Considerably less well than Taiwan or Korea; better than Italy or the US...
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
Perhaps the BBC have a responsibility as a public service broadcaster to communicate the complexity of the subject to an audience that may not be scientifically literate ?
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
The wider point generally is that the BBC do not stick to their brief - inform, educate and entertain.
The first two they persistently under represent and only address them when they can overlap it with entertainment (i.e. get politicians shouting at each other or the interviewer).
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore currently has 91 known active cases..... A very different statement
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
Perhaps the BBC have a responsibility as a public service broadcaster to communicate the complexity of the subject to an audience that may not be scientifically literate ?
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
It was, at the very least, factual. Again, a government spokesperson could have commented on just how appalling it was or wasn't.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Perhaps Singapore is more confident than us of being able to cope with a resurgence later in the year. Are we acting differently to other nations because we know that our health service would collapse if COVID returned in the winter, while other nations reckon they will manage?
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Indeed. Lots of nonsense from both ‘sides’ of the argument David.
And the sanctimonious “you can’t comment unless you are a scientist” stuff is hugely irritating. It’s a discussion forum, let people discuss.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore currently has 91 known active cases..... A very different statement
Indeed. But their testing policy means they don't have to wait for patients to rock up at the hospital to find out.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
I agree; the counter-argument I guess is that you have time to wait for a vaccine (except early 2021 sounds like the most advance date, and hiding away that long isn't realistic) or for the virus to mutate into a less harmful form. Mutation requires ongoing infection, so perhaps the UK will be doing some of the heavy lifting in that regard?
I suppose the proviso to that is, as long as it mutates in the right way….
Mother-in-law died this evening, not of the virus, just old age - she was 92. She went peacefully. Her last words were “That’s lovely”, as my wife tucked her up in bed. She then fell into her last sleep. It’s been the most extraordinary year. I have seen up close what I already knew: my wife is an extraordinary woman with unlimited resources of selfless love. What she gave her Mum over these last 15 months is as close to holy as I will ever know.
Best wishes to you and your wife, Southam.
+1
and a beautiful thing you wrote SO.
It is my mother in laws's funeral today, 85 not virus, virulent cancer. May she rest in peace.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Your keep implying that “the science” is incontestable. It is not - we are having to make several assumptions.
Of course I am not going to take Jeremy Hunt’s assessment of epidemiology over Chris Witty’s. But I am least going to be interested in a POV that arises from changing some assumptions.
Yes, I think it is interesting to see a POV that changes the assumptions. (I expect the Chief Medical Officer probably remembered to look at this).
But, yes, when Rory and Jeremy publish their modelling and scientific evidence, it will be interesting to see it.
They must already have it to hand -- as they so busy on twitter -- we'll get it soon .
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore currently has 91 known active cases..... A very different statement
True but I don't think they have found a new case for some days. Which would tend to suggest that it is not at large in the community.
Another underlying assumption in the government's approach is that the actual level of infection in this country is 5-10K at a time when we have had 590 positive tests. This is the iceberg theory. It makes sense, particularly when many people have minor symptoms but the WHO in China went looking and did not find evidence of it. If the assumption is wrong so is our policy. It's probably not but...
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
The Singapore PM:
Covid-19 outbreak will continue for a year or longer; more stringent measures may need to be put in place, says PM Lee SINGAPORE - The Covid-19 outbreak will continue for some time - a year, and maybe longer - said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his second national address on the situation on Thursday (March 12).
But if Singaporeans keep up their guard and take practical precautions, the country will be able to keep its economy going and people will be able to carry on with their daily lives, he said.
In a video address on his social media channels, PM Lee emphasised that the situation in Singapore remains under control.
The disease outbreak response level will not be stepped up to red, the highest level, he said. It is currently at orange.
"We are not locking down our city like the Chinese, South Koreans or Italians have done," he said.
"What we are doing now is to plan ahead for some of these more stringent measures, try them out, and prepare Singaporeans for when we actually need to implement them."
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
They can't wipe it out. It will be endemic in Africa and India for the foreseeable future. Unless their intent is to severely limit all international travel until such times a we have a vaccine then they will just see it keep coming back.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
See S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand. No need to “shut off the outside world”.
Edit: Apparently. I can only react to the information I have. I appreciate there there is no “right answer” but I am annoyed that many on here think that “the science” is incontestable.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Indeed. Lots of nonsense from both ‘sides’ of the argument David.
And the sanctimonious “you can’t comment unless you are a scientist” stuff is hugely irritating. It’s a discussion forum, let people discuss.
You can discuss what you want.
But it is reasonable to point out the provenance of advice or discussion.
I might weight it more if it comes from an expert, myself.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The "extensive screening" I got a few weeks ago was
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
Can you find any quotes from them saying the UK are doing the wrong thing for the UK? No idea to the answer on that, but if you ask different questions like what is right for Spain on 12 March and compare it to what is right for UK on 12 March why do you expect the same answer?
The assumption that we can just copy someone else is a bit weird to me. The US did that, the scientist/doctor at the Trump/Pence press conference on Monday said he saw an email attachment with the Australian response and thought great, those are the kind of things we have been talking about so we are copying that. I was incredulous but apparently that lazy approach would be in demand over here too.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
If some countries (e.g. us) take the hit and buy immunity with a 2020 sacrifice of their elderly, whereas others shut down and contain it - fewer 2020 dead but no immunity - what then (if no vaccine) in a globalized world?
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
See S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand. No need to “shut off the outside world”.
Edit: Apparently. I can only react to the information I have. I appreciate there there is no “right answer” but I am annoyed that many on here think that “the science” is incontestable.
We will see how things go in the Far East over the coming months.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
Yes there are other countries following this policy, Germany is effectively doing the same thing.
Not quite. They are shutting some schools and banning large gatherings such as football matches. But their analysis certainly seems closer to ours than anyone elses.
Watching Man U play in Austria last night was bordering on pointless. An excellent performance, some superb goals but the whole thing had the feel of a training match without a crowd. I wondered how attractive these matches might be to broadcasters or viewers.
Well it's probably wrong to talk about Germany as the national govt doesn't strictly have the power. So far the different states are doing different things. Bavaria, Berlin, Lower Saxony and Saarland have decided to close schools. That's more than a quarter of the country, I expect others to follow soon.
Lots of places seem to have banned gatherings of more than 1000 people, which is also following national advice.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The "extensive screening" I got a few weeks ago was
"Have you been to China in the last 14 days?"
"No"
"Welcome to Singapore"
And yet, despite being very close to China, it’s “worked” so far.
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.
Care home my mother is in banned all vista etc last Monday. I think a lot will take the decision without the government telling them to
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
The theory seems to be that there’s no point suppressing it now only for it to pop up later.
Yet Korea, Taiwan, Japan seem to suggest that you can suppress it - and at relatively low cost, too.
This is not a political judgment per se. Or rather, it’s 80% science, 20% politics. But the science and hence the politics is based on one hell of an assumption.
Of course you can suppress it but I would think only in the short term. Unless the plan is to keep the restrictions in place permanently, you are not going to actually deal with the problem, just push it further down the road.
I agree; the counter-argument I guess is that you have time to wait for a vaccine (except early 2021 sounds like the most advance date, and hiding away that long isn't realistic) or for the virus to mutate into a less harmful form. Mutation requires ongoing infection, so perhaps the UK will be doing some of the heavy lifting in that regard?
Fun question for the day: How prepared are we for the day of the virus which spreads like Covid 19, from which we have no immunity and has effects like ebola?
Such a virus wouldn't spread very fast, as Ebola appears quickly and has a high and relatively swift rate of death. The virus we should fear is one that is highly contagious, has symptoms that are slow to appear, and after a significant interval kills most of its hosts.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore currently has 91 known active cases..... A very different statement
True but I don't think they have found a new case for some days.
I think the human behaviour angle is perhaps underestimated.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
This really chimes with the behavioural science basis of the advice for "not yet." I think it is tricky. Loneliness is a great enough affliction on many older members of society as it is and it is not conducive to good health or resilience.
If I was forced to self-isolate I would appreciate being allowed some exercise. I would have thought that going out for a walk or run at night when there is no-one else about should be OK.
Not sure. If you were shedding virus how long would it last in your exhale when you were running? There is some evidence about how long this thing lasts on various surfaces but I am not aware of research on that. May be time to turn that clotheshorse back into an exercise bike.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
See S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand. No need to “shut off the outside world”.
Edit: Apparently. I can only react to the information I have. I appreciate there there is no “right answer” but I am annoyed that many on here think that “the science” is incontestable.
We will see how things go in the Far East over the coming months.
I’d prefer to have our scientists looking at what’s happening *today*.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
If some countries (e.g. us) take the hit and buy immunity with a 2020 sacrifice of their elderly, whereas others shut down and contain it - fewer 2020 dead but no immunity - what then (if no vaccine) in a globalized world?
Yes, we're effectively making the decision for the whole world - but if Vallance is right the decision is already made by the virus with their being so many mild, undetected cases.
Also my daughter’s school closed as his kids are there
This does create a problem for the Govt though. Their assumption, indeed their policy, is that many school children already have it or will get it. And will spread it. This is completely undermined if they keep shutting down at the merest hint of an infection.
I suppose the decision may be taken by the school itself. Apparently Jeremy Hunt was complaining that the government isn't stopping people visiting care homes. Well, people can stop doing that themselves.
Care home my mother is in banned all vista etc last Monday. I think a lot will take the decision without the government telling them to
That is likely. My father is in his 90s, with Alzheimer's and blind. He relies on daily family visits for any social interaction. I am not sure how many more times I will be able to see him.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
500,000 people die each year normally, just to put it in context. And the overlap will be quite significant.
A lot of the 'shutting off' is politicians without a solution wanting to be seen to do something.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The "extensive screening" I got a few weeks ago was
"Have you been to China in the last 14 days?"
"No"
"Welcome to Singapore"
And yet, despite being very close to China, it’s “worked” so far.
And yet, you know better than the PM of Singapore.....
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
The point is that Cummings and Johnson have direct access to the experts and their modelling. Hunt and Stewart do not.
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
Perhaps the BBC have a responsibility as a public service broadcaster to communicate the complexity of the subject to an audience that may not be scientifically literate ?
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
It was, at the very least, factual. Again, a government spokesperson could have commented on just how appalling it was or wasn't.
Your sarcasm seems randomly directed.
I think the role of a public service broadcaster should be to communicate the complexities of things.
Here is a subject that has many aspects and is complex. There is an opportunity for the BBC to demonstrate its worth and usefulness in communicating the science, the public policy, the economics.
The BBC is failing.
It's not just the appalling graphic, but also giving Nigel Farage the opportunity to speak endlessly on epidemiology (a subject on which he knows nothing) is wrong.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The "extensive screening" I got a few weeks ago was
"Have you been to China in the last 14 days?"
"No"
"Welcome to Singapore"
And yet, despite being very close to China, it’s “worked” so far.
And yet, you know better than the PM of Singapore.....
No, I noted the press release you mentioned. However, the incidence and rate of growth in Singapore has and is very low.
I think the human behaviour angle is perhaps underestimated.
I spoke recently with my mother about perhaps self-isolating. Her response was, effectively, that she'd go stir-crazy if she didn't go out at all.
The concerns people have about us not doing enough collectively are ones that I think are legitimate, but how long would a nationwide self-imposed isolation last? Would every household with kids have to have people off work looking after them because no schools are open? How many businesses would be destroyed? And how long before people got tired of not socialising at all?
I'm an introvert. I work remotely as a matter of course, so this makes less difference to me (directly) than most other people. But self-isolation for weeks or months on end isn't a free hit.
Experts may disagree, but it's a shade ironic to criticise the PM for following the medical and scientific advice.
For what it's worth, I'd be more inclined to ban large gatherings right now and advise all those above a certain age, perhaps 70, to self-isolate. But I'm also not receiving briefings from the scientific and medical advisers.
This really chimes with the behavioural science basis of the advice for "not yet." I think it is tricky. Loneliness is a great enough affliction on many older members of society as it is and it is not conducive to good health or resilience.
If I was forced to self-isolate I would appreciate being allowed some exercise. I would have thought that going out for a walk or run at night when there is no-one else about should be OK.
Not sure. If you were shedding virus how long would it last in your exhale when you were running? There is some evidence about how long this thing lasts on various surfaces but I am not aware of research on that. May be time to turn that clotheshorse back into an exercise bike.
Outdoors ? Not long. At night you ought to be fine.
The scant research I've seen indicated a couple of hours, aerosolised and indoors (which is more cough/sneeze than exhale - though I'm not sure about panting when you run).
if you come down with the virus, I seriously doubt you'd feel like running anyway.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
The point is that Cummings and Johnson have direct access to the experts and their modelling. Hunt and Stewart do not.
You have a touching faith in the omniscience of our rulers.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
I don't think Brexit has much to do with it. I reckon it's more a case of:
Countries with robust health systems: Attempt to stamp out the virus now, and trust that the health system will be able to cope with future resurgences.
Countries with patchy or overstretched health systems: Take the hit from the virus over the summer because you know the system won't cope with a resurgence in the winter.
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
You must be comforted to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan. The two Nigels together in the same boat
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
It is a clear strategy. But the science is as yet not fully understood or agreed. And other strategies are available.
We seem to be willing to accept “more deaths now” for “less economic dislocation now” and “fewer deaths later”. But each of those terms is contestable.
At the end of all this, there is a clear metric -- total number of deaths due to COVID-19 per head of population over the course of the pandemic.
Our Government Scientists are acting to reduce that metric.
Many of the parameters of the epidemic are known to sufficient certainty. The uncertainty can be modelled in the inference from the data.
The only major unknown is when a vaccine will be routinely available to all. No-one has suggested a timescale less than a year for that -- and two years seems likely to me.
Also, I am not actually sure that the Government is behaving very differently to Germany or France or Spain. We are just behind them.
I note that some prat has marked your post "Off Topic". You have nicely covered points I would have made, so thanks for that.
Perhaps if a government spokesperson had been on Newsnight, they could have discussed the matter ?
Perhaps the BBC have a responsibility as a public service broadcaster to communicate the complexity of the subject to an audience that may not be scientifically literate ?
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
It was, at the very least, factual. Again, a government spokesperson could have commented on just how appalling it was or wasn't.
Your sarcasm seems randomly directed.
I think the role of a public service broadcaster should be to communicate the complexities of things.
Here is a subject that has many aspects and is complex. There is an opportunity for the BBC to demonstrate its worth and usefulness in communicating the science, the public policy, the economics.
The BBC is failing.
It's not just the appalling graphic, but also giving Nigel Farage the opportunity to speak endlessly on epidemiology (a subject on which he knows nothing) is wrong.
Having Farage on is, I agree, quite unnecessary. The level of Newsnight coverage, though, has been overall very good.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
You are sounding like Piers Morgan.
If you want some reassurance, our policy is most like Germany's.
And of the countries in the world with access to top scientific advice, I'd go: 1. The US, 2 The UK, 3 Germany.
The US is different because the politicians won't listen to the scientists,
Is Britain alone in its policy (essentially, do nothing)? Is there a single other country following the same course?
I am happy to follow the advice of the CMO, but what about all those foreign CMOs - not just in the Far East, but in other Western European countries.
They've made a policy choice. Based on scientific advice, sure. But the essential choice is a political one.
You must be comforted to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan. The two Nigels together in the same boat
I don't agree that the essential choice is a political one. It is not.
There will be a clear strategy from the science. That will be controlled by the availability of scarce medical resources like ICUs (known) and the likelihood of a vaccine becoming available (not known, but estimable).
It is a clear strategy. But the science is as yet not fully understood or agreed. And other strategies are available.
We seem to be willing to accept “more deaths now” for “less economic dislocation now” and “fewer deaths later”. But each of those terms is contestable.
At the end of all this, there is a clear metric -- total number of deaths due to COVID-19 per head of population over the course of the pandemic.
Our Government Scientists are acting to reduce that metric.
Many of the parameters of the epidemic are known to sufficient certainty. The uncertainty can be modelled in the inference from the data.
The only major unknown is when a vaccine will be routinely available to all. No-one has suggested a timescale less than a year for that -- and two years seems likely to me.
Also, I am not actually sure that the Government is behaving very differently to Germany or France or Spain. We are just behind them.
I note that some prat has marked your post "Off Topic". You have nicely covered points I would have made, so thanks for that.
Happens all the time. If you're on a phone or tablet, it's very easy to hit the button by mistake (for the avoidance of doubt, it wasn't me this time).
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
See S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand. No need to “shut off the outside world”.
Edit: Apparently. I can only react to the information I have. I appreciate there there is no “right answer” but I am annoyed that many on here think that “the science” is incontestable.
I am not sure anyone is saying it is incontestable. Alternative approaches may turn out to be better. Indeed it is very likely no country at all has found an optimum strategy.
The important point is that given its so complex, and that we have one group of very experienced, qualified, senior epidemiologists, scientists, doctors, psychologists, economists, civil servants all working together with the full resources of HMG behind them, why should the country accept someone elses alternative strategy ahead of theirs?
No-one has even attempted to answer that question I have posed daily.
I hope his personal action plan has been to stop sleeping in a different home every night - and acting as the worst possible super-spreader.
Meanwhile, cheap jokes aside, Jeremy Hunt has (politely) criticised the government. He seems to have changed his mind in the past 4 days as his tweets were more moderate then.
I have no confidence in the UK or US governments. The prognosis seems to be
1 trebles all round for funeral directors 2 quite a few parliamentary byelections.
Jeremy Hunt doesn’t strike me as a rabble rousing populist. Neither does Rory Stewart.
The fact that both are on the record as demurring against government policy is very disquieting.
I knew it before I looked it up
Jeremy Hunt, PPE, Oxford, Rory Stewart, PPE, Oxford.
They are not even scientists -- let alone experts in epidemiology, or even medicine.
Dominic Cummings, History, Oxford. Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
You are sounding like Piers Morgan.
If you want some reassurance, our policy is most like Germany's.
And of the countries in the world with access to top scientific advice, I'd go: 1. The US, 2 The UK, 3 Germany.
The US is different because the politicians won't listen to the scientists,
I'd go with Taiwan, where the deputy president is an epidemiologist.
As an aside, it's interesting to watch certain Twitter dimwits espousing the conspiracy that the evil Tories are deliberately trying to get old people killed.
Because if there's one thing ruthlessly evil political parties do, it's kill off their strongest supporters in the electorate.
I can understand people being paranoid, or conspiracy theorists, or political fundamentalists, but there's a certain level of human stupidity which is simply fascinating.
60% of the population is about 40m. 1% of that is 400,000.
Yep, it's going to be brutal - though I guess (hope) that will be spread out over a number of years. It appears that the time to stop this was two months ago - but is it worth shutting the country off from the outside world just in case it is really bad?
500,000 people die each year normally, just to put it in context. And the overlap will be quite significant.
A lot of the 'shutting off' is politicians without a solution wanting to be seen to do something.
"Putting things in context" is cover for an awful lot of naive intuition addressed to questions where intuition is not the best guide. Nearly doubling a significant parameter more often than not produces catastrophic results: try it on the number of tube passengers, the volume of rain that falls, the amount you eat, the CO2 concentration in the air...
I'm fairly certain when Rory Stewart was Governor of an Iraqi province he had to deal with an outbreak of some infectious disease, so he's not some idiot on this topic.
As for Jeremy Hunt who knows, he might still have contacts at the NHS/PHE who are concerned about the government's strategy and have asked him to speak out.
The UK's position is not dissimilar to Singapore's - they decided school closures would be counter productive too.
Singapore currently has 91 active cases and is well on the way to eliminating the virus (for now). No attempt to build herd immunity, just wipe it out. That seems the exact opposite of what we are doing.
Singapore also has done extensive screening of travellers on entry
The "extensive screening" I got a few weeks ago was
"Have you been to China in the last 14 days?"
"No"
"Welcome to Singapore"
And yet, despite being very close to China, it’s “worked” so far.
And yet, you know better than the PM of Singapore.....
No, I noted the press release you mentioned. However, the incidence and rate of growth in Singapore has and is very low.
Stop trolling, start thinking for a change.
Cases per million population: Singapore: 32 UK: 8.7
I'm fairly certain when Rory Stewart was Governor of an Iraqi province he had to deal with an outbreak of some infectious disease, so he's not some idiot on this topic.
As for Jeremy Hunt who knows, he might still have contacts at the NHS/PHE who are concerned about the government's strategy and have asked him to speak out.
These two are not rent-a-gob politicians
Might they, perhaps quite justifiably some might say (including myself), have a prejudice against the PM though?
Comments
One parent was relating this process for her child (she was a vulnerable lung cancer survivor) on radio this am.
More seriously, I do not expect any schools to be worried about hitting any attendance targets just at the moment. I would be amazed at any prosecutions, you would have a pretty good defence, and ultimately the safety of your family is worth the risk of a fairly small fine.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1238389125599973376?s=20
Watching Man U play in Austria last night was bordering on pointless. An excellent performance, some superb goals but the whole thing had the feel of a training match without a crowd. I wondered how attractive these matches might be to broadcasters or viewers.
Of course I am not going to take Jeremy Hunt’s assessment of epidemiology over Chris Witty’s.
But I am least going to be interested in a POV that arises from changing some assumptions.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1238389164212727808?s=20
Our Government Scientists are acting to reduce that metric.
Many of the parameters of the epidemic are known to sufficient certainty. The uncertainty can be modelled in the inference from the data.
The only major unknown is when a vaccine will be routinely available to all. No-one has suggested a timescale less than a year for that -- and two years seems likely to me.
Also, I am not actually sure that the Government is behaving very differently to Germany or France or Spain. We are just behind them.
The government wishes us to take the hit in order to build “herd immunity”.
Thousands of us will die, as a direct consequence.
(In Italy, for example, over half the teachers are over 50.)
FWIW, I think it was an appalling graphic.
Professor Nigel Farage, the internationally acclaimed expert on epidemiology, no doubt thinks it is a great graphic.
You may be right about Stewart, he is fast becoming the Farage of the centre-left.
However, in Whitty and Vallance we trust.
Both are possible, only one is right and neither of us know which is right.
Though such a virus is quite unlikely.
1% of that is 400,000.
The first two they persistently under represent and only address them when they can overlap it with entertainment (i.e. get politicians shouting at each other or the interviewer).
Some odd things going on in the interplay between those 2 markets.
Eg, there was a big Michelle Obama arb the other day too.
A very different statement
Your sarcasm seems randomly directed.
And the sanctimonious “you can’t comment unless you are a scientist” stuff is hugely irritating. It’s a discussion forum, let people discuss.
and a beautiful thing you wrote SO.
It is my mother in laws's funeral today, 85 not virus, virulent cancer. May she rest in peace.
But, yes, when Rory and Jeremy publish their modelling and scientific evidence, it will be interesting to see it.
They must already have it to hand -- as they so busy on twitter -- we'll get it soon .
Another underlying assumption in the government's approach is that the actual level of infection in this country is 5-10K at a time when we have had 590 positive tests. This is the iceberg theory. It makes sense, particularly when many people have minor symptoms but the WHO in China went looking and did not find evidence of it. If the assumption is wrong so is our policy. It's probably not but...
Covid-19 outbreak will continue for a year or longer; more stringent measures may need to be put in place, says PM Lee
SINGAPORE - The Covid-19 outbreak will continue for some time - a year, and maybe longer - said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his second national address on the situation on Thursday (March 12).
But if Singaporeans keep up their guard and take practical precautions, the country will be able to keep its economy going and people will be able to carry on with their daily lives, he said.
In a video address on his social media channels, PM Lee emphasised that the situation in Singapore remains under control.
The disease outbreak response level will not be stepped up to red, the highest level, he said. It is currently at orange.
"We are not locking down our city like the Chinese, South Koreans or Italians have done," he said.
"What we are doing now is to plan ahead for some of these more stringent measures, try them out, and prepare Singaporeans for when we actually need to implement them."
https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/pm-lee-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-8pm
They confirmed 9 new cases yesterday.
No need to “shut off the outside world”.
Edit: Apparently. I can only react to the information I have. I appreciate there there is no “right answer” but I am annoyed that many on here think that “the science” is incontestable.
But it is reasonable to point out the provenance of advice or discussion.
I might weight it more if it comes from an expert, myself.
"Have you been to China in the last 14 days?"
"No"
"Welcome to Singapore"
The assumption that we can just copy someone else is a bit weird to me. The US did that, the scientist/doctor at the Trump/Pence press conference on Monday said he saw an email attachment with the Australian response and thought great, those are the kind of things we have been talking about so we are copying that. I was incredulous but apparently that lazy approach would be in demand over here too.
And lots of other tradeable stuff might happen in the meantime.
Also, how many are closely following Betfair odds at the moment ... ?
Lots of places seem to have banned gatherings of more than 1000 people, which is also following national advice.
There are lot of things you could say, which is why it would be sensible to have someone engaging.
Boris Johnson, Classics, Oxford.
The system has always been scientists advise, politicians decide.
But on the figures, the UK would have to have v. good reasons to follow de facto US policy and ignore rest of Europe plus E Asia.
It's almost as if Brexit has left a group of people unhinged and desperate to become the 51st. state.
https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2020/02/spore-virus-cases/index.html?shell
My father is in his 90s, with Alzheimer's and blind. He relies on daily family visits for any social interaction. I am not sure how many more times I will be able to see him.
Who's following? Just me, I think!
A lot of the 'shutting off' is politicians without a solution wanting to be seen to do something.
Here is a subject that has many aspects and is complex. There is an opportunity for the BBC to demonstrate its worth and usefulness in communicating the science, the public policy, the economics.
The BBC is failing.
It's not just the appalling graphic, but also giving Nigel Farage the opportunity to speak endlessly on epidemiology (a subject on which he knows nothing) is wrong.
However, the incidence and rate of growth in Singapore has and is very low.
Stop trolling, start thinking for a change.
At night you ought to be fine.
The scant research I've seen indicated a couple of hours, aerosolised and indoors (which is more cough/sneeze than exhale - though I'm not sure about panting when you run).
if you come down with the virus, I seriously doubt you'd feel like running anyway.
Countries with robust health systems: Attempt to stamp out the virus now, and trust that the health system will be able to cope with future resurgences.
Countries with patchy or overstretched health systems: Take the hit from the virus over the summer because you know the system won't cope with a resurgence in the winter.
You have nicely covered points I would have made, so thanks for that.
The level of Newsnight coverage, though, has been overall very good.
If you want some reassurance, our policy is most like Germany's.
And of the countries in the world with access to top scientific advice, I'd go: 1. The US, 2 The UK, 3 Germany.
The US is different because the politicians won't listen to the scientists,
If you're on a phone or tablet, it's very easy to hit the button by mistake (for the avoidance of doubt, it wasn't me this time).
The important point is that given its so complex, and that we have one group of very experienced, qualified, senior epidemiologists, scientists, doctors, psychologists, economists, civil servants all working together with the full resources of HMG behind them, why should the country accept someone elses alternative strategy ahead of theirs?
No-one has even attempted to answer that question I have posed daily.
Because if there's one thing ruthlessly evil political parties do, it's kill off their strongest supporters in the electorate.
I can understand people being paranoid, or conspiracy theorists, or political fundamentalists, but there's a certain level of human stupidity which is simply fascinating.
As for Jeremy Hunt who knows, he might still have contacts at the NHS/PHE who are concerned about the government's strategy and have asked him to speak out.
These two are not rent-a-gob politicians
Singapore: 32
UK: 8.7