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Comments
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I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
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You ruined it Ian 😢IanB2 said:
Wait til Brexit puts the price of cod and haddock through the roofCasino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
...0
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And then there's the children.tyson said:
Human beings who are obsessed with Thomas the tank engine...and who constantly like to stick their fingers in their mouths and are adverse to soap...those human beings, you need to isolate from each other...DavidL said:
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.tyson said:
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....Benpointer said:
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.Pro_Rata said:
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.MightyAlex said:
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.Pro_Rata said:A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.1 -
1) Where does the 5000 year number come from? Couldn't the limit of the range just as well be 50,000 years, or 5 million years?YBarddCwsc said:
I think the argument is quite powerful.
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
2) If what's growing is basically *information*, I'm not sure you can apply it the same way you would in a physical systen where you eat all the glucose in the petridish or whatever.
PS The premise may be pants: https://blog.mattedgar.com/2011/09/16/the-pace-of-change/0 -
There's so much good fish we gloss over. Sea bream. Trout. Monkfish.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
It's a tragedy.0 -
Ah, but, salt and vinegar or salt and sauce?Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
There are certainly a few best case scenarios where things improve by the early summer, particularly if there is a weather effect (which no one seems to know). But it looks strongly as if, even in these best case scenarios (which are probably as unlikely as the millions of dead), the US is in for a short term shock, regardless. Which surely will send markets down again. Unless there really is the medical cavalry just over yonder hill.moonshine said:On the stock market: our assumption here is that the money is dumb and in denial.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]0 -
After the event to the media, no.Cyclefree said:
Do you think there might be good reasons why such allegations, indeed whistleblowing allegations generally, might be made anonymously?Charles said:
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusationsBenpointer said:
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.Charles said:
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challengedrcs1000 said:
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.Scott_xP said:
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
Through the proper channels I have no problem with0 -
I knew that I was heading for trouble when I decided to dabble in particle physics!0
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I love fish and chips...it's such a treatCasino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
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You need to time such measure to get the most benefit, as you don't want to repeat them because they are likely to be less effective the more often you do them. Basically get it right the first time as the second time may not work.tyson said:No vaccine is too late.....and we need to take any measure to reduce the spread of this disease...I think we'll be closing schools this time in a fortnight...Question...why do we have to wait a fortnight??
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It really doesn't. I've done both. If I am coming down for a cricket trip the train is vastly superior and the additional time is neither here nor there. On this occasion we are in a hurry.Anabobazina said:
It’s senseless to fly that route. The train is nicer and takes the same time once you have faffed around.DavidL said:
Edinburgh to City (at the moment)TheScreamingEagles said:
Where are you flying to (and from)?DavidL said:Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?0 -
Mushy peas, certainly.SandyRentool said:
Ah, but, salt and vinegar or salt and sauce?Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
Mushy peas, salt, and tomato ketchup.SandyRentool said:
Ah, but, salt and vinegar or salt and sauce?Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?1 -
Give it a third runway, rename it London Exeter international and bobs you’re uncle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Exeter has an airport?MarqueeMark said:So FlyBeGone....
That is sad. Not sure how Exeter airport survives.0 -
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k0 -
I once got salt and sauce on my fish supper in Edinburgh. Absolutely foul.SandyRentool said:
Ah, but, salt and vinegar or salt and sauce?Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
Telegraph:
Funerals of coronavirus victims could be webcast to mourners to prevent the spread of the virus, with crematoria kept open round the clock to cope with demand0 -
I don't like fish. But chips are nice.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
Pudding, peas, chips and gravy is what the cognoscenti order.IanB2 said:
Wait til Brexit puts the price of cod and haddock through the roofCasino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
You need to visit a chippy in Leeds. They only serve Haddock.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
Clever. You highlight that you can’t keep dividing things just the same as you can’t keep multiplying things.MyBurningEars said:
Even then, though, once you get near the end of it, you have to stop modelling it as a smooth exponential decay and start using a discretised stochastic model for the last few decays. And once that last one has popped, then there's decay no more, of exponential or any other kind...SandyRentool said:Real world exponential: Radioactive decay.
(Nobody said it had to be an exponential increase!)0 -
Northerners still won’t eat the skin.SandyRentool said:
You need to visit a chippy in Leeds. They only serve Haddock.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
I like them all but I am not sure I would put them in batter.Casino_Royale said:
There's so much good fish we gloss over. Sea bream. Trout. Monkfish.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
It's a tragedy.0 -
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
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Not two cheese without chips plus one chips with chips?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Pudding, peas, chips and gravy is what the cognoscenti order.IanB2 said:
Wait til Brexit puts the price of cod and haddock through the roofCasino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?1 -
Why would anyone want to eat fish skin?IanB2 said:
Northerners still won’t eat the skin.SandyRentool said:
You need to visit a chippy in Leeds. They only serve Haddock.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
Sounds disgusting.
Night all.0 -
With or without chips?Andy_JS said:
I don't like fish. But chips are nice.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?3 -
Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.0 -
Is that a description of some PBers ?tyson said:
Human beings who are obsessed with Thomas the tank engine...and who constantly like to stick their fingers in their mouths and are adverse to soap...those human beings, you need to isolate from each other...DavidL said:
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.tyson said:
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....Benpointer said:
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.Pro_Rata said:
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.MightyAlex said:
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.Pro_Rata said:A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.0 -
Why is government planning to stop telling us where the latest cases are?0
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Andy...can you not take an extension of comradely partisanship in the spirit it was made.....??Andy_JS said:
I don't like fish. But chips are nice.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
I wish we could revert back to the halcyon levity of Brexit politics when things didn't matter that much......
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Perhaps they can do some more intensive renovation work while they are at it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.tyson said:
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k0 -
She means don’t go buying up all the latex gloves in Essex, that kind of thing.eadric said:
"We shouldn't be too worried"TOPPING said:Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.
Thanks, Topping. That's a keeper.0 -
Some good news: Genesis are re-forming for a new tour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-517341151 -
Just realised I haven't considered (at all) the actuarial on Sadiq Khan where I have a large position.
He'd better make it to the 7th May.0 -
It's more likely the election is postponed.Casino_Royale said:Just realised I haven't considered (at all) the actuarial on Sadiq Khan where I have a large position.
He'd better make it to the 7th May.0 -
Or take airplanes to far off destinations in deepest Africa. What an environment seven hours onboard a plane for a pussy drama queen.IanB2 said:
She means don’t go buying up all the latex gloves in Essex, that kind of thing.eadric said:
"We shouldn't be too worried"TOPPING said:Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.
Thanks, Topping. That's a keeper.0 -
Jewish ones from Eastern Europe surely?isam said:
Thank God for Italian immigrants!Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?0 -
Absolutely. He seems way too short at 1.19 even if he gets it in July and always looked a shoe-in.IanB2 said:
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.tyson said:
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
He should drift a tiny bit if Warren pulls out.0 -
Some nutter stateside, too.TOPPING said:Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html0 -
Spurs fan allegedly racially abusing one of their players for missing a penalty, so Eric Dier runs into the crowd to fight them
https://twitter.com/sbergwijn_/status/1235331816946577411?s=21
https://twitter.com/joefreedman_joe/status/1235332825467015172?s=210 -
Cancelled. Large gathering.Andy_JS said:Some good news: Genesis are re-forming for a new tour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-517341150 -
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....IanB2 said:
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.tyson said:
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)0 -
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/0 -
Not really the right time for elderly prog rock fans to meet en masse really though is it?Andy_JS said:Some good news: Genesis are re-forming for a new tour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-517341151 -
She had to resign because she lied to the Prime Minister.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?Charles said:
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challengedrcs1000 said:
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.Scott_xP said:
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
Twice.0 -
Try Fritto MistoDavidL said:
I like them all but I am not sure I would put them in batter.Casino_Royale said:
There's so much good fish we gloss over. Sea bream. Trout. Monkfish.DavidL said:
Except the weird English predilection for Cod instead of the vastly superior haddock.Casino_Royale said:I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
It's a tragedy.0 -
Lets not forget 2 drugs are also already in human trials and if they are shown to be effective they are already been certified and aren't so difficult to produce that they can't be manufactured on a mass scale very quickly.eadric said:
Quite an important difference. If it's a few months then it will be available for use in the northern hemisphere this autumnCharles said:
The vaccine? He says a few months. His wife (who tends to be more realistic) says 12-18meadric said:
How long til it is usable??Charles said:
Spoke to my friend again todayeadric said:
I clicked on that in the hope that it was news about a forthcoming vaccine, or a sudden slide in cases....IanB2 said:Here’s a bit of good news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51740214
Oh well.
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
But this is something that should be completely safe so in theory you could take the polio approach
Spanish flu teaches us that the SECOND wave can be savage, and worse
If it's 12-18 months it's too late0 -
What would be the “box office” if Eon released Bond on pay per view in April or May I wonder. No doubt less than the $880m that Spectre got. But would that be better than keeping it in the can potentially until mid 2021?0
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I think we have to wait at least 2 months to see what is what.....Andy_JS said:Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For me the US is really quite worrying....but I hope in two or three months we are back to talking Brexit and whether Kier Starmer has bored everyone to death....
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I know, I know. But it annoyed me to have got into the position where I was red on all the front-runners; cunningly I have fought back and am now only red on one of them. That he’s the one who will win is the only remaining obstacle.tyson said:
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....IanB2 said:
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.tyson said:
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)1 -
An interesting neurological interpretation of Dunbar numbers links the exponentials of potential one on one relationships in the group to the brain's capacity at 86 billion neurons. Hence 150 is about the limit of the people we can sustain some sense of where everyone fits in the group.YBarddCwsc said:
I think the argument is quite powerful.TimT said:
They do, but for only limited ranges.YBarddCwsc said:
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.IanB2 said:
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.eadric said:
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.IanB2 said:
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.eadric said:
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.Chameleon said:https://news.yahoo.com/crisis-yale-professor-said-u-143223472.html
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said.
in
Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.0 -
But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?DavidL said:
I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.WhisperingOracle said:
A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.DavidL said:
And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.IanB2 said:
This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.DavidL said:
Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.IanB2 said:
It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.DavidL said:
I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.Big_G_NorthWales said:I know it is Guido but this is quite impressive
https://order-order.com/2020/03/04/uk-ranked-best-world-epidemic-response-mitigation/
From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.
It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.
They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.
What the hell has happened?
From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.
And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.0 -
I think it probably just shows that their health care systems are very good and can provide good care when there are small numbers (and probably quite a bit of luck)...perhaps also that old people in poor health don't go on Easter skiing trips to Italy or long distance flights to China.Andy_JS said:Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/1 -
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0 -
Lets hope its just boredom that is killing people....tyson said:
I think we have to wait at least 2 months to see what is what.....Andy_JS said:Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For me the US is really quite worrying....but I hope in two or three months we are back to talking Brexit and whether Kier Starmer has bored everyone to death....0 -
Yeah. So I don't get my profit in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's more likely the election is postponed.Casino_Royale said:Just realised I haven't considered (at all) the actuarial on Sadiq Khan where I have a large position.
He'd better make it to the 7th May.
Boo.0 -
Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...0
-
Calm down.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
No need to shout and to be honest I trust him before your goodself2 -
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
yes twice claiming that she was not running her own foreign policy...rcs1000 said:
She had to resign because she lied to the Prime Minister.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?Charles said:
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challengedrcs1000 said:
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.Scott_xP said:
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
Twice.0 -
-
Sweaty Betty's in Leeds circa 1982. You got scratchings for free.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0 -
If we're really unlucky the bookies void the market.Casino_Royale said:
Yeah. So I don't get my profit in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's more likely the election is postponed.Casino_Royale said:Just realised I haven't considered (at all) the actuarial on Sadiq Khan where I have a large position.
He'd better make it to the 7th May.
Boo.0 -
Just what Boris wanted - no scrutiny..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
1 -
Exactly, I would sigh for the same reason. In many ways, it is irrelevant at this stage. We know it is a very dangerous disease for some people in high risk groups. Does knowing that it is 1.25% or 0.86% change anything about the way we respond to it?geoffw said:
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
Potato chipsCasino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0 -
Enrico Fermi.edmundintokyo said:
1) Where does the 5000 year number come from? Couldn't the limit of the range just as well be 50,000 years, or 5 million years?YBarddCwsc said:
I think the argument is quite powerful.
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
Suppose a technological exponentiating civilisation lasts 5 million years. It will have mastered space travel a hundredth the speed of light (quite modest). So it will spread 50,000 light years. That is a lot of stars.
We would know about them.
The era of rapid technological growth cannot be anything like 5 million years. Even 50,000 years gives 500 light years -- plenty of stars.
Enrico wins again.-1 -
A cunning strategy indeedy.....IanB2 said:
I know, I know. But it annoyed me to have got into the position where I was red on all the front-runners; cunningly I have fought back and am now only red on one of them. That he’s the one who will win is the only remaining obstacle.tyson said:
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....IanB2 said:
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.tyson said:
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....Casino_Royale said:
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.tyson said:
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...Casino_Royale said:I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)
And... on Betfair...it does look pretty to have so much green on an open market....so compliments on achieving that....
1 -
Three main factors:Andy_JS said:Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1. There are very few cases, so each case can receive top notch care.
2. The patients were all (or nearly all) diagnosed within the past week, coronavirus isn't a quick killer in general, especially in somewhat healthy people.
3. The sort of people with substantial health difficulties that would be killed very quickly by coronavirus generally aren't flying and galavanting around the ski slopes or northern Italy.0 -
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries. 39 / 3,266.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
Ok, so I genuinely lol'ed at that one!rottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0 -
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!Dadge said:Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...0 -
A good choice.eadric said:
Mussels and chips. Sorry. Unforgivably Belgian, but utterly delicious with the right boozeCasino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
Not particularly British though.0 -
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last mealrottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
1 -
Sounds like me a decade ago trying to spin my school report to my parents. "Well erm, take out Classics and Latin which I'm dropping soon, and then bear in mind that Biology was a really tricky exam that everyone struggled in, so that shouldn't be counted. Overall I averaged 70%, isn't that amazing!"Andy_JS said:
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
The high number of critical cases overwhelming the healthcare system causing a high mortality rate is a feature of the virus.0 -
In Fish and Chip News:Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
Fish and chip shop owner tells of coronavirus self-isolation
Fish and chip reopens after coronavirus advice
Westhoughton Chinese chip shop closes amid Coronavirus fears
A CHIP shop owner who fears that he may contract coronavirus has started wearing masks while serving customers.
Worried about coronavirus after holiday in China, chip shop owners temporarily close up
Meanwhile in Australia condoms are selling out after a journalist advised people to use one on their finger to push lift buttons and the like. According to The Sun.0 -
Whitstable Bay oysters and a pint of Youngs Porter. Marvellous.
0 -
You certainly can’t average the US in, for reasons we did to death earlier.Andy_JS said:
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries. 39 / 3,266.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
Funnily enough my biggest single political bet win was Biden 2012 VEEP pick...Foxy said:
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!Dadge said:Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
And now he looks to be possibly my heaviest loss....I honestly could not see how he could get chosen....
And that comrade says it all about the vagaries of betting....
0 -
You might want to look at how allegations about anti-semitism within the Labour Party came out to understand why your idealised view is simply not how people who feel upset and attacked behave in practice. Believe me, whistleblowers do not behave in the neat and tidy way that procedures, even when they exist, assume.Charles said:
After the event to the media, no.Cyclefree said:
Do you think there might be good reasons why such allegations, indeed whistleblowing allegations generally, might be made anonymously?Charles said:
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusationsBenpointer said:
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.Charles said:
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challengedrcs1000 said:
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.Scott_xP said:
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
Through the proper channels I have no problem with0 -
And in the worst-affected countries there's every likelihood that infection rates are significantly under reported just due to the volume.Andy_JS said:
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries. 39 / 3,266.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
Then he remembered the Newsnight audience demographics?geoffw said:
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
Eoghhhh....eadric said:
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheaptyson said:
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last mealrottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
0 -
And our NHS is better than Iranian or Chinese healthcare.Benpointer said:
And in the worst-affected countries there's every likelihood that infection rates are significantly under reported just due to the volume.Andy_JS said:
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries. 39 / 3,266.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.0 -
I'm a sucker for a Beef Wellington. Starter of a trio of diced tartares (tuna, salmon, steak), first main of moules frites with shoestring fries, then the Beef Wellington.eadric said:
Actually, that's quite a good discussion. What would be your last meal?Casino_Royale said:
Ok, so I genuinely lol'ed at that one!rottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
For me it would definitely be seafood.
Within that, it would probably be fantastic native British oysters, with excellent sourdough, or maybe a top notch fish stew, like they do in Sheekeys or Bentleys0 -
Top choice. Then again I'd have moules mariniere over fish and chips any day.eadric said:
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheaptyson said:
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last mealrottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0 -
All those Dems meeting in that big hall is surely unsafe?TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're really unlucky the bookies void the market.Casino_Royale said:
Yeah. So I don't get my profit in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's more likely the election is postponed.Casino_Royale said:Just realised I haven't considered (at all) the actuarial on Sadiq Khan where I have a large position.
He'd better make it to the 7th May.
Boo.
We got the US wrong because no-one thought they would decide that the antidote to one senile old fart is another senile old fart.0 -
I've had some very dark nights of the soul on Sanders, who I am exceedingly red on. But I have kept the faith, just, that the Dems aren't mad enough to nominate someone who would obviously lose to Trump before the first vote is even counted.tyson said:
Funnily enough my biggest single political bet win was Biden 2012 VEEP pick...Foxy said:
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!Dadge said:Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
And now he looks to be possibly my heaviest loss....I honestly could not see how he could get chosen....
And that comrade says it all about the vagaries of betting....
0 -
He says Diamond Princess has 6 deaths out of 706 infected, for a CFR of 0.85%, but ignores that 35 are seriously or critically ill (per Worldometer). Seriously and critically aren't defined, but only one quarter of that lot have to die to bring CFR up to 2%.eadric said:
This writer is using the Diamond Princess to support the argument that CFR is exaggerated. I'd love to believe this is true but there are obvious doubts.Nigelb said:
Some nutter stateside, too.TOPPING said:Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
Here is just one: everyone on this ship was disembarked by March 1, and then separated and isolated, preventing further infection.
I look forward to the space ships which can ferry us all off planet earth, and isolate us on other planets.1 -
On topic, congratulations to everyone who ignored the hype and kept laying Bloomberg4
-
Especially while it's only having to deal with a handful of critical cases.Philip_Thompson said:
And our NHS is better than Iranian or Chinese healthcare.Benpointer said:
And in the worst-affected countries there's every likelihood that infection rates are significantly under reported just due to the volume.Andy_JS said:
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries. 39 / 3,266.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Let's hope it continues that way.0 -
You tee them up and....eadric said:
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheaptyson said:
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last mealrottenborough said:
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.Casino_Royale said:
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.eadric said:Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?0
