politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer – Will Farage stand
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On the principle that you should do what your opponents least want you to do, Nigel Farage should stand in Newark. He might not win, but he'd keep the UKIP carnival going.
My instinct, however, is that he won't. He hasn't put himself on the line before, so he would need to break new ground.0 -
Either testing the waters to see how desperate people are for him to stand, or being quite reasonable, or both as he genuinely hasn't decided yet I guess. If he won't he should say so quickly, to at least put us out of our misery of suspense.Scott_P said:@ChrisGibsonNews: Coming up on @BBCNews. Nigel Farage says he's 'seriously tempted' to stand in Newark but has reservations as he's got 'no local connections'
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Galloway doesn't seem very bogged down in local issues. Farage could still spread the word of UKIP. And the LDs remained the protest vote party when they had 60 MPs, until they became part of a coalition. The Greens aren't exactly ruined in pushing their message because they have an MP (they are establishment, but that's more them than their situation).isam said:I hope Farage doesn't stand mainly because I have backed him to stand elsewhere in the GE!
But also I think, as someone said downthread, that it would ruin the "anti establishment" schtick, and the figurehead of the party in the GE campaign would be bogged down in sorting out the pot holes in Newark or whatever it is MP's do rather than touring the country!0 -
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There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
We need to combine Mercer's views on Cameron with tim's views on Osborne.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not actually sure. In all our conversations about him all I know is that he never had a good word to say - he referred to him continuously as 'the boy Cameron' - and that he would never miss an opportunity to put him down., He certainly didn't like the fact he won the party leadership and was, as I remember, a David Davis man.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, why does Mercer loathe Cameron so?
Some sort of critical mass of hatred would be achieved.
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Interestingly, both the woman doing the Greens' PEB, and the Green candidate for the EU president (of something or other, it was on DP):Quincel said:
Galloway doesn't seem very bogged down in local issues. Farage could still spread the word of UKIP. And the LDs remained the protest vote party when they had 60 MPs, until they became part of a coalition. The Greens aren't exactly ruined in pushing their message because they have an MP (they are establishment, but that's more them than their situation).isam said:I hope Farage doesn't stand mainly because I have backed him to stand elsewhere in the GE!
But also I think, as someone said downthread, that it would ruin the "anti establishment" schtick, and the figurehead of the party in the GE campaign would be bogged down in sorting out the pot holes in Newark or whatever it is MP's do rather than touring the country!
a) look the same; and
b) are quite hot.0 -
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
I once really annoyed David CameronAlanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
Looks like the Greens have an electoral angle they've not properly exploited yet, so to speak.TOPPING said:
Interestingly, both the woman doing the Greens' PEB, and the Green candidate for the EU president (of something or other, it was on DP):Quincel said:
Galloway doesn't seem very bogged down in local issues. Farage could still spread the word of UKIP. And the LDs remained the protest vote party when they had 60 MPs, until they became part of a coalition. The Greens aren't exactly ruined in pushing their message because they have an MP (they are establishment, but that's more them than their situation).isam said:I hope Farage doesn't stand mainly because I have backed him to stand elsewhere in the GE!
But also I think, as someone said downthread, that it would ruin the "anti establishment" schtick, and the figurehead of the party in the GE campaign would be bogged down in sorting out the pot holes in Newark or whatever it is MP's do rather than touring the country!
a) look the same; and
b) are quite hot.0 -
I will be fast asleep at that hour, being the young whippersnapper that I am, so will now wish you many happy returns.MikeK said:0 -
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A constituency poll putting Con and UKIP close together with Labour a few points behind would be interesting. A number of Labour voters may be persuaded to vote tactically in those circumstances.0
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I find that hard to believe, you're normally such a shy retiring guy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I once really annoyed David CameronAlanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
We'll see if he has the guts to stand - my guess is he'll find some excuse for not doing so, but it needs to be better than his not having "local connections"!0
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How does this even happen?! PB, full of the political class.Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
My claim to fame is I met Michael Howard AND Ann Widdecombe...........!0 -
Has there ever been such a tonnage of shite at the bottom of the Championship as Yeovil, Barnsley, Birmingham, Doncaster and Millwall have been this season.Ave_it said:hahaha Birmingham enjoy playing rochdale next season!
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Threesome ?Freggles said:
How does this even happen?! PB, full of the political class.Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
My claim to fame is I met Michael Howard AND Ann Widdecombe...........!0 -
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Was it in the evening?Freggles said:
How does this even happen?! PB, full of the political class.Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
My claim to fame is I met Michael Howard AND Ann Widdecombe...........!0 -
Well I've never met him.Alanbrooke said:
I find that hard to believe, you're normally such a shy retiring guy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I once really annoyed David CameronAlanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
On the night of the evening of the Eastleigh by-election, I wrote a thread speculating on whether Dave was as useless as a Carthignian military commander, if they finished third behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.
Apparently lots of Tory MPs quoted that piece and it annoyed Dave.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/28/are-we-entering-the-twilight-of-the-leadership-of-dave/
Edit: This bit in particular
When David Cameron became the leader of the Conservatives in 2005, the Lib Dem majority was a mere 568, tonight judging by the betting sentiment the Tories may be pushed into third place, behind UKIP.
Given the circumstances leading up to the by-election, and the news agenda in recent days dominated by the sub-optimal headlines and responses about Lord Rennard, and the Liberal Democrats consistently poor polling in the national polling for the last few years, then finishing third will lead to speculation about the merits of the Cameron project.
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The 2010 UKIP candidate for Boston & Skegness might have been a possibility: unfortunately he was expelled from the party in December.
http://www.lincolnshireecho.co.uk/Chris-Pain-loses-appeal-stay-UKIP/story-20379990-detail/story.html0 -
Mercer didn't like Cameron because Dave reprimanded him for lack of political correctness when referring to "blacks".Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not actually sure. In all our conversations about him all I know is that he never had a good word to say - he referred to him continuously as 'the boy Cameron' - and that he would never miss an opportunity to put him down., He certainly didn't like the fact he won the party leadership and was, as I remember, a David Davis man.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, why does Mercer loathe Cameron so?
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Oxford PPEs would pay for the privilegeSmarmeron said:@Alanbrooke
gruesome you mean?
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AveryLP said:
More fruitcakes exposed by the Guardian.
This time it seems that Mo Farah is the target:
[I]t emerged that David Wycherley, standing for Ukip candidate for the Rushall-Shelfield ward in Walsall, had asked his Facebook friends to explain "how Mo Farah, an African … has won a Gold medal for Great Britain".
A link to the full article for those who have not yet lost the will to live: http://bit.ly/1fpXPRs</
That's a pretty feeble story.0 -
First thoughts.Farage won't stand and the 4-5 on the Tories to keep the seat looks big.0
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Another UKIP possibility — Victoria Ayling:
http://www.skegnessstandard.co.uk/news/local/skegness-has-every-chance-of-getting-a-ukip-mp-1-58640390 -
Two separate occasions I should clarify.peter_from_putney said:
Was it in the evening?Freggles said:
How does this even happen?! PB, full of the political class.Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
My claim to fame is I met Michael Howard AND Ann Widdecombe...........!
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It tells a story of panic and thrashing around.Alanbrooke said:
I think all the extra scrutiny of late tells its own story.Tykejohnno said:
Jane Collins @Jane4ukip
“Some papers reckon UKIP had a "disastrous week", as it polls 31% & 1st in a national poll" Let's hope next week is just as disastrous !!!"
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Might his dislike of Cameron have been something to do with him having to resign over something in the late 2000s? Wasn't he a shadow defence sec, and Cameron 'resigned' him?Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not actually sure. In all our conversations about him all I know is that he never had a good word to say - he referred to him continuously as 'the boy Cameron' - and that he would never miss an opportunity to put him down., He certainly didn't like the fact he won the party leadership and was, as I remember, a David Davis man.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, why does Mercer loathe Cameron so?
I don't know either gentleman, but Mercer's an ex-army officer, and the son of a bishop. In my admittedly limited experience, officers once they leave the army either turn into the best blokes ever and great fun, or f'ing gits who believe that they still wield power over the plebs.
Add that into the son-of-a-bishop thing, and might it explain his dislike for someone like Cameron.
As an aside, I've worked with three people who've claimed to be in the SAS. Of the three (ex) colleagues, I can believe one could have been. I could believe another was in the army, but not the SAS. I cannot believe the third would ever have been in the army, yet alone the SAS. A friend of mine has a colleague who says he was on Pebble Island in the Falklands, and apparently believably so.
But what do I know? Has anyone else heard unbelievable I-was-in-the-SAS claims?0 -
Just as well he doesn't read the comments then :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I've never met him.Alanbrooke said:
I find that hard to believe, you're normally such a shy retiring guy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I once really annoyed David CameronAlanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
On the night of the evening of the Eastleigh by-election, I wrote a thread speculating on whether Dave was as useless as a Carthignian military commander, if they finished third behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.
Apparently lots of Tory MPs quoted that piece and it annoyed Dave.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/28/are-we-entering-the-twilight-of-the-leadership-of-dave/0 -
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
One for @Ed_Miliband. In 2010 #UKIP fought 4 wards in #Doncaster. This year they will fight every ward (21) & hold annual conference in town
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****************30th April 2014****************
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/{ HAPPY 80th }\
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College presents MikeK a kipper fruitcake
to celebrate him entering his ninth decade0 -
Went to hear ferage speak in Bath. Some good one liners. Ukip sw euro candidates may do well regaregardless of personal qualities. No disruption of meeting no riots no fights, media mist have wondered why the venue was full. Some good jokes about clegg and lds best recruiting sergeants. Small rent a crowd of lefties shouting ukip scum whist watched by polive horses.0
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It does look that way, as do the non-stop efforts to yell racist. However I think that trick has had its day and is now counter productive.Sean_F said:
It tells a story of panic and thrashing around.Alanbrooke said:
I think all the extra scrutiny of late tells its own story.Tykejohnno said:
Jane Collins @Jane4ukip
“Some papers reckon UKIP had a "disastrous week", as it polls 31% & 1st in a national poll" Let's hope next week is just as disastrous !!!"0 -
"Scottish households will see a double-digit decline in living standards if the country votes to become independent, as secession triggers a mass exodus of the financial services industry, according to a respected think-tank.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) calculated that independence would lead to a third of jobs in the financial services sector being moved south of the border.
In a speech on Wednesday night, Douglas McWilliams, the founder of the CEBR, will say that between 20,000 and 40,000 jobs will move to England if Scotland breaks away, as many of them depend on customers in the rest of the UK."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10797073/Scottish-independence-will-trigger-mass-exodus-of-financial-services.html0 -
Well what a mouthwatering prospect the next 54 weeks is in British politics now; European elections, Newark by-election, Scottish independence referendum, economic spasms aplenty and of course the general election. Its going to be one heck of a wild ride.
As for Newark, what shadow does Fiona Jones' legacy still cast for Labour in this seat?
I was just getting myself acquainted with the demographics of this seat: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
One thing that sticks out immediately: 93% white british and 41% over 55 - those 2 things are pretty attractive as far as UKIP is concerned. I still think its a huge gamble for Farage to stand though - its predicated on topping the poll in the Euro's which is far from a done deal, and even if that part goes to plan, then coming 2nd will be seen as a huge disappointment in the inevitable media build up after May 25th if that is the case. And Farage would have to fend off awkward questions about his MEP commitments, and whether he would remain an MP / MEP at the same time in the event of winning Newark - presumably not.0 -
Swimming pool or knocking shop?Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
The political/pundit class is experiencing a nervous collapse. I've never seen anything like it. It's wonderful.Sean_F said:
It tells a story of panic and thrashing around.Alanbrooke said:
I think all the extra scrutiny of late tells its own story.Tykejohnno said:
Jane Collins @Jane4ukip
“Some papers reckon UKIP had a "disastrous week", as it polls 31% & 1st in a national poll" Let's hope next week is just as disastrous !!!"
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Think he's hedging his bets here.peter_from_putney said:We'll see if he has the guts to stand - my guess is he'll find some excuse for not doing so, but it needs to be better than his not having "local connections"!
I must admit also I don't buy the " if he's an MP he's a shoo in for the debates " line. On the same basis so are G Galloway and C Lucas, and I can see the DUP, Plaid, and the SNP mounting more than a token legal challenge too in that case. The only way I can see Dave agreeing to a debate with Farage in it would be to widen it to include Lucas ( or the Green leader ), Respect et al to give Ed and Nick flak to deal with too from parties likely to siphon off their voters.
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National Motor Cycle Museum.dr_spyn said:
Swimming pool or knocking shop?Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:0 -
Mercer for all his faults (and there were a few) seems to be a straight talker, which is a handy trait in the army but not in politics.
For his part Mercer considered Cameron two faced and duplicitous.
Ironic in a way?0 -
UKIP Ground Control are trying to get in touch with the 2010 Candidate I hear...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_by-election,_2014
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Simply not true. Oh I am sure that didn't improve his opinion of 'the boy' but Mercer's dislike for Cameron was well established long before he had to resign and was common knowledge even before Cameron was elected leader.perdix said:
Mercer didn't like Cameron because Dave reprimanded him for lack of political correctness when referring to "blacks".Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not actually sure. In all our conversations about him all I know is that he never had a good word to say - he referred to him continuously as 'the boy Cameron' - and that he would never miss an opportunity to put him down., He certainly didn't like the fact he won the party leadership and was, as I remember, a David Davis man.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, why does Mercer loathe Cameron so?
I suspect that JosiasJessop is closest to the truth and it was Mercer and Cameron's respective backgrounds that meant they were never going to get on.0 -
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Farage: "But we're very keen to get our first MP in Westminster, cos once that happens, then the dam will have burst." [2/2]
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For my part I think Farage could justifiably be included in a major leader's debate if he is an MP (not that any of the others would want him there, besides Clegg if he is still around in the hopes Farages hits the other two as well) and not include others given total party vote and number of candidates in addition to having Westminster representation, but it would admittedly get pretty messy and rely on technical definitions by that point. He would still fail the 'base on past GE performance' criteria of course, so that just muddies it even further.welshowl said:
Think he's hedging his bets here.peter_from_putney said:We'll see if he has the guts to stand - my guess is he'll find some excuse for not doing so, but it needs to be better than his not having "local connections"!
I must admit also I don't buy the " if he's an MP he's a shoo in for the debates " line. On the same basis so are G Galloway and C Lucas, and I can see the DUP, Plaid, and the SNP mounting more than a token legal challenge too in that case. The only way I can see Dave agreeing to a debate with Farage in it would be to widen it to include Lucas ( or the Green leader ), Respect et al to give Ed and Nick flak to deal with too from parties likely to siphon off their voters.
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there are several new markets up on whether UKIP WILL or WILL NOT win a seat before the next general election, but Hills have pulled their market
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-to-win-a-seat
Best price that they will now is a mere 13/100 -
Just like it did for Respect, and the Greens.Tykejohnno said:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Farage: "But we're very keen to get our first MP in Westminster, cos once that happens, then the dam will have burst." [2/2]
Oh, wait...0 -
A good day to bury bad news...
@paulwaugh: Meanwhile at height of Mercer story, UKIP announced candidate had quit the party cos his "remarks about Lenny Henry caused enormous offence"0 -
Mercer is an archetypal fish-and-chip regiment ex-soldier with a grudge against Cameron not only because as an Etonian Cam outranks him but also because Cam has the strength of character to embrace his inner metrosexual.Smarmeron said:Mercer for all his faults (and there were a few) seems to be a straight talker, which is a handy trait in the army but not in politics.
For his part Mercer considered Cameron two faced and duplicitous.
Ironic in a way?
cf IDS ex-Scots Guards thoroughly at ease with himself.0 -
Not the same thing at all. UKIP are already a significant force in British politics who got around a million votes at the last GE and look set to at the least double that, in addition to being hugely significant in the Euros. The Greens are concentrated in a few specific areas and other than that have zero ambitions to appeal to the mass electorate given their policies, and Respect are even more localized. For them, winning an MP came as a result of an intense campaign in one location, and as the start of something respectively, whereas UKIP have already built up major support, they just haven't managed to focus it in one seat yet, but if they get enough support, eventually that spread of support will find an area they can win, and proof they are not a wasted vote will shore up many more of those votes for the GE.Scott_P said:
Just like it did for Respect, and the Greens.Tykejohnno said:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Farage: "But we're very keen to get our first MP in Westminster, cos once that happens, then the dam will have burst." [2/2]
Oh, wait...0 -
Fiona Jones' story was rather tragic.hunchman said:Well what a mouthwatering prospect the next 54 weeks is in British politics now; European elections, Newark by-election, Scottish independence referendum, economic spasms aplenty and of course the general election. Its going to be one heck of a wild ride.
As for Newark, what shadow does Fiona Jones' legacy still cast for Labour in this seat?
I was just getting myself acquainted with the demographics of this seat: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
One thing that sticks out immediately: 93% white british and 41% over 55 - those 2 things are pretty attractive as far as UKIP is concerned. I still think its a huge gamble for Farage to stand though - its predicated on topping the poll in the Euro's which is far from a done deal, and even if that part goes to plan, then coming 2nd will be seen as a huge disappointment in the inevitable media build up after May 25th if that is the case. And Farage would have to fend off awkward questions about his MEP commitments, and whether he would remain an MP / MEP at the same time in the event of winning Newark - presumably not.
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I don't think respect/greens have led in a major poll ? or 15% in GE polls ?Scott_P said:
Just like it did for Respect, and the Greens.Tykejohnno said:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Farage: "But we're very keen to get our first MP in Westminster, cos once that happens, then the dam will have burst." [2/2]
Oh, wait...
Not bad for a party that isn't that old.
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Exactly. He'd have one MP and represents a party that got under 4% in 2010. Now that percentage is not likely to apply now (though breaking say 7% in 2015 might be tougher than it looks now as the kipper leaning voters stare down the barrel of Ed approaching No 10 in the first days of May 2015 - I predict late late swings there), but you can see how "defining him in" whilst not "defining others out" is not easy, especially as Dave will not want a four way Farage, Miliband, Cameron, Clegg, debate at all costs you'd think.kle4 said:
For my part I think Farage could justifiably be included in a major leader's debate if he is an MP (not that any of the others would want him there, besides Clegg if he is still around in the hopes Farages hits the other two as well) and not include others given total party vote and number of candidates in addition to having Westminster representation, but it would admittedly get pretty messy and rely on technical definitions by that point. He would still fail the 'base on past GE performance' criteria of course, so that just muddies it even further.welshowl said:
Think he's hedging his bets here.peter_from_putney said:We'll see if he has the guts to stand - my guess is he'll find some excuse for not doing so, but it needs to be better than his not having "local connections"!
I must admit also I don't buy the " if he's an MP he's a shoo in for the debates " line. On the same basis so are G Galloway and C Lucas, and I can see the DUP, Plaid, and the SNP mounting more than a token legal challenge too in that case. The only way I can see Dave agreeing to a debate with Farage in it would be to widen it to include Lucas ( or the Green leader ), Respect et al to give Ed and Nick flak to deal with too from parties likely to siphon off their voters.0 -
27 year-old Michael Payne was selected as Labour candidate just 24 days ago:
http://www.newarklabourparty.org.uk/labour-candidate-for-general-election-is-chosen/
Twitter feeds for the two candidates selected so far:
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick
https://twitter.com/MichaelPayneUK
Interesting that Michael Payne has about 6.5 times as many followers as Robert Jenrick at the moment: 1,674 vs 256.0 -
Was Dave preparing to ride a 5,000 cc Triumph Osborne?Alanbrooke said:
National Motor Cycle Museum.dr_spyn said:
Swimming pool or knocking shop?Alanbrooke said:
I met Mr Cameron several years ago. He was getting dressed. I shall leave it there.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's two types of people in the world, those who hate David Cameron and those yet to meet him?another_richard said:
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Farage is not universally popular.
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-kicked-Bell-Inn-pub-Bath/story-21028780-detail/story.html0 -
UKIP to win zero seats at next GE. You heard it here first...
(Gets coat and leaves quietly)0 -
Is that a 5th YouGov in a row with a 5-point lead?0
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Could Newark actually give a boost to Cameron? If Farage runs, he will now be expected to win easily, but the Tory candidate actually looks highly capable, brought up in the Midlands from a small business family, educated at a state primary and Wolverhampton Grammar, 1st from Cambridge, then Penn U, followed by a career as a commercial lawyer and Director at Christie's he looks far more qualified than Farage and he has obviously already been nursing the seat, unlike Farage who will parachute into the seat with no links as a 'carpetbagger.' Bear in mind too that the Tories gained Newark in 2001 despite losing heavily nationally so it is pretty strong Tory territory. If the Tories hold the seat, Dave can punch any boost UKIP getting from topping the Euro polls, and if Labour come 3rd in a seat Blair win in 1997 that will also throw the pressure right back on Ed M!0
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Thought so. Can't see him standing personally. The best Thanet seat in the GE is surely Farage's best option. No point in taking an unnecessary risk, and besides he's got no connection with the local area. A local candidate a la Diane James would suit far better IMHO.Neil said:
He would not be allowed to.hunchman said:And Farage would have to fend off awkward questions about his MEP commitments, and whether he would remain an MP / MEP at the same time in the event of winning Newark - presumably not.
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A truly dismal placeAlanbrooke said:
National Motor Cycle Museum.0 -
In the US, rumours Romney may run again in 2016 if Jeb Bush does not
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/27/bob-schieffer-romney-may-consider-2016-run-if-jeb-bush-doesnt/0 -
I think it will be bad for the tories until after the euro elections.Danny565 said:Is that a 5th YouGov in a row with a 5-point lead?
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Election guru Robert Waller writes off Labour's chances in Newark:
http://www.vote-2012.proboards.com/post/155189/thread
"I don't see Labour having a chance"0 -
God what is all this talk about not taking risks.
Politics is all about risks Especially when your party ha ZERO MPs0 -
I get a suspicion that Farage won't stand. Downside risk is actually quite high:
-Possibility of Defeat vs Success mixed
-Blow-in rebound potential. I don't know Newark at all and how they'd react to his apearance on the ballot
-Double jobbing allegation.
Its a case of either a) wait it out for a better shot which will come or b) cant help himself and even a bit of a chance of success is worth giving it a bash.
Off topic: Syria
OPCW is going to investigate the allegations of chlorine gas attacks by Assad forces. Right now as we sit in our largely comfy homes, some people are being choked by toxic gas in Idlib province.
Aren't we lucky in this country that we can debate whether one silver spoon fed upper middle class bloke is better than another upper middle class bloke. Perhaps we are all fortunate accidents of birth.
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Perhaps the Scottish Greens are different. The only time I ever hear about Green party policies in England is absolutely petty stuff or deliberately and proudly far far to the left, which is a fair enough choice for a party to make, but not one for a party that has any ambitions to appeal to the mythical 'centre ground' like Labour, Cons, LDs and even UKIP.Scott_P said:
Patrick Harvie will be surprised to hear that...kle4 said:The Greens are concentrated in a few specific areas and other than that have zero ambitions to appeal to the mass electorate
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Is that the one near Coleshill in North Warwickshire?Scott_P said:
A truly dismal placeAlanbrooke said:
National Motor Cycle Museum.0 -
Neither of those parties might have a larger membership than the Conservatives' by the middle of the next Parliament. Many Conservative branches (and council seats) are low-hanging fruit for UKIP.Scott_P said:
Just like it did for Respect, and the Greens.Tykejohnno said:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Farage: "But we're very keen to get our first MP in Westminster, cos once that happens, then the dam will have burst." [2/2]
Oh, wait...
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No he's not. If Farage is going to be in the debates, Cameron won't be.DavidL said:If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Cameron simply will not be in a debate with Farage.0 -
No, that's probably right, and I think most Kippers accept that even with current elation. They might breakthrough if they retain enough of their current polling, sheer chance will mean enough UKIP votes clump together in one area to win eventually, but it's not sure thing.murali_s said:UKIP to win zero seats at next GE. You heard it here first...
(Gets coat and leaves quietly)
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@TOPPING
One of my mates (RIP) used to drive a "pig" in NI.
No matter the regiment, it was the same drill, follow a route till the officer banged on the bulkhead,brake as hard as he could, the doors would fly open and everyone would roll or dive for cover. As soon as the door banged shut, he would take off like a bat out of hell, and back to base
Then the guards moved in...
To be continued..0 -
Regarding the animosity between Cameron and Mercer, recall that Mercer (along with Bercow) was heavily rumoured to be about to defect to New Labour when Gordon arrived on the scene, as one of 'Brown's Blues'. I doubt that kind of shenanigans endeared him.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/bercow-and-merc.html0 -
Off-topic:
firmly in the you -couldnt-make-it-up category:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/kkk-leader-caught-with-a-black-male-prostitute.html0 -
I thought Diane James was from the Smoke, not buccolic Wessex, so not local to Eastleigh.
Newark does not particularly look a good place for Farage, but he will look frit if he doesn't stand.
I suspect that he would be a useless MP, but it would be amusing to see him sitting on the benches behind Miliband, thus emphasising vote UKIP get Miliband....hunchman said:
Thought so. Can't see him standing personally. The best Thanet seat in the GE is surely Farage's best option. No point in taking an unnecessary risk, and besides he's got no connection with the local area. A local candidate a la Diane James would suit far better IMHO.Neil said:
He would not be allowed to.hunchman said:And Farage would have to fend off awkward questions about his MEP commitments, and whether he would remain an MP / MEP at the same time in the event of winning Newark - presumably not.
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Paxman to Barbara Roach, head of a "Cross Party Campaign to tackle UKIP"
"Doesn't the very formation of a cross party campaign from old vested interests like you and your colleagues on other parties demonstrate precisely why UKIP is successful, because you're out of touch with public opinion, and they're not?"
Yep, that's about it
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Looking forward to it...will pick it up tomorrow as sleep awaits.Smarmeron said:@TOPPING
One of my mates (RIP) used to drive a "pig" in NI.
No matter the regiment, it was the same drill, follow a route till the officer banged on the bulkhead,brake as hard as he could, the doors would fly open and everyone would roll or dive for cover. As soon as the door banged shut, he would take off like a bat out of hell, and back to base
Then the guards moved in...
To be continued..
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Cameron would be outclassed. He'd be wise to avoid a debate.MikeL said:
No he's not. If Farage is going to be in the debates, Cameron won't be.DavidL said:If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Cameron simply will not be in a debate with Farage.
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DavidL Disagree, the Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, has already been selected and looks highly capable and Farage will be a carpetbagger. If Farage is beaten that will instantly blow a hole in the momentum UKIP gains from winning the Euros (this will not be a by-election solely on Europe), and if Labour is 3rd in a seat Blair gained in '97 that will be humiliating for Ed Miliband, and with the LDs unlikely to trouble the scorers it could be a huge and unexpected boost for Dave!0
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YupAndyJS said:
Is that the one near Coleshill in North Warwickshire?Scott_P said:
A truly dismal placeAlanbrooke said:
National Motor Cycle Museum.0 -
We certainly are. It is definitely a major part of the problem, but when things are so messed up, and there are no choices without major risks, we tend toward blissful ignorance there is no doubt.Y0kel said:I get a suspicion that Farage won't stand. Downside risk is actually quite high:
-Possibility of Defeat vs Success mixed
-Blow-in rebound potential. I don't know Newark at all and how they'd react to his apearance on the ballot
-Double jobbing allegation.
Its a case of either a) wait it out for a better shot which will come or b) cant help himself and even a bit of a chance of success is worth giving it a bash.
Off topic: Syria
OPCW is going to investigate the allegations of chlorine gas attacks by Assad forces. Right now as we sit in our largely comfy homes, some people are being choked by toxic gas in Idlib province.
Aren't we lucky in this country that we can debate whether one silver spoon fed upper middle class bloke is better than another upper middle class bloke. Perhaps we are all fortunate accidents of birth.0 -
isam said:
Paxman to Barbara Roach, head of a "Cross Party Campaign to tackle UKIP"
"Doesn't the very formation of a cross party campaign from old vested interests like you and your colleagues on other parties demonstrate precisely why UKIP is successful, because you're out of touch with public opinion, and they're not?"
Yep, that's about it
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
On @BBCNewsnight @oflynndirector finishing off a great day for @UKIP by shredding the representative of the mainstream parties
Ian Katz @iankatz1000
.@oflynndirector to Barbara Roche: "You're a lovely person but with enemies like you who needs friends?" #newsnight
lol0
