UKIP can look at the European election results for the Newark & Sherwood council area before deciding who would be the best candidate, unless the by-election is held very quickly.
You mean UKIP can wait almost 4 weeks without announcing a candidate? I think they'll have to announce before then, for campaigning reasons and media ones.
It depends when the by-election is going to be held. If the person making the decision decides to delay it until July or August there wouldn't be any rush.
Slighty off-topic but would a Conservative majority government switch the European elections back to FTTP to try and kill off UKIP?
We can't: we're committed to them being done on a PR basis.
However, I think there is a Belgian constituency that is so small that it only actually elects one MEP - in other words, it's FPTP by another name. We could always copy the Belgians and have FPTP by the back door.
Personally, I loathe the fact the closed list system used in the Euros. Can we please have multi-member STV instead as it would (a) allow people to vote against Andrew Duff, (b) reduce the party machine influence, and (c) increase the (currently extremely tenuous) connection between voters and MEPs.
He only needs a half-way sane candidate to get just as much airtime as if he was standing himself plus takes the risk out of it plus just as Boris is a home-counties shoe-in, Farage is a further south-east kind of guy.
If he ever wants to pull the trigger, that is...
Remember that Farage wasn't always party leader, but he has always been the best campaigner in the party election after election. He should run, and not just because of his celebrity.
Long time lurker finally delurking in the midst of this excitement.
Have taken the 3/1 on UKIP with Hills to win any by election this parliament (bottled the 7/2 this afternoon as any expert would...) and also the 5/1 on Farage to stand.
Wouldn't want less than 2/1 on UKIP until we see how it pans out, but the 5/1 on Farage looks very big. No need to rehearse what others have said, but while I'd make it just a shade odds against that he stands, 5/1 is quite a distance out there.
Farage would clearly attract the older Labour protest vote against a young Tory, and in a by election so close to the General Election there would be almost no reason for the people of Newark not to protest vote knowing they can get another go in less than a years time. It is almost built for Farage standing and UKIP winning.
The doubt for him must be retaining the seat so soon after the by election, which is why I think he wont stand, but it will be a very close call.
Without Farage, do we think UKIP still stand a good chance?
He only needs a half-way sane candidate to get just as much airtime as if he was standing himself plus takes the risk out of it plus just as Boris is a home-counties shoe-in, Farage is a further south-east kind of guy.
If he ever wants to pull the trigger, that is...
Remember that Farage wasn't always party leader, but he has always been the best campaigner in the party election after election. He should run, and not just because of his celebrity.
With him standing that's it: doing a George Galloway aside, he is stuck in the melee.
If he doesn't stand not only does UKIP not shoot its bolt but there will be an impression of strength in depth...the best is yet to come...etc...
Plus, if he ends up as an MP he will slightly have to dismount his high anti-establishment NOTA, they're all in it for themselves horse.
Mods: can one of you please contact me? Someone's been having trouble posting to the site, and they've asked me to see what the problem is. I suspect technical foul-up rather than a ban.
"Can you help me please get a message to the site moderators. I have been trying to post for the last day or so and I have been unable to. I am apparently signed in and all is well but when I press send the message just disappears."
Thanks in advance.
(To the person in question: hope this helps).
Message sent to you via vanilla in about five minutes
Reply sent, thanks. I don't have the individual's contact details, so it might be best if you were to contact him directly if you can.
Long time lurker finally delurking in the midst of this excitement.
Have taken the 3/1 on UKIP with Hills to win any by election this parliament (bottled the 7/2 this afternoon as any expert would...) and also the 5/1 on Farage to stand.
Wouldn't want less than 2/1 on UKIP until we see how it pans out, but the 5/1 on Farage looks very big. No need to rehearse what others have said, but while I'd make it just a shade odds against that he stands, 5/1 is quite a distance out there.
Farage would clearly attract the older Labour protest vote against a young Tory, and in a by election so close to the General Election there would be almost no reason for the people of Newark not to protest vote knowing they can get another go in less than a years time. It is almost built for Farage standing and UKIP winning.
The doubt for him must be retaining the seat so soon after the by election, which is why I think he wont stand, but it will be a very close call.
Without Farage, do we think UKIP still stand a good chance?
Greetings. I think they'd still have a chance if their candidate is not hopeless, but the Tory majority is actually pretty substantial, so to stand a good chance they need to use their top guns.
I am interested in what the LD share might well be. As they are third behind Labour I'd expect them to drop by half to around 10% anyway, and add in the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting to help Labour/UKIP and perhaps they'd be in danger of losing their deposit again?
Long time lurker finally delurking in the midst of this excitement.
Have taken the 3/1 on UKIP with Hills to win any by election this parliament (bottled the 7/2 this afternoon as any expert would...) and also the 5/1 on Farage to stand.
Wouldn't want less than 2/1 on UKIP until we see how it pans out, but the 5/1 on Farage looks very big. No need to rehearse what others have said, but while I'd make it just a shade odds against that he stands, 5/1 is quite a distance out there.
Farage would clearly attract the older Labour protest vote against a young Tory, and in a by election so close to the General Election there would be almost no reason for the people of Newark not to protest vote knowing they can get another go in less than a years time. It is almost built for Farage standing and UKIP winning.
The doubt for him must be retaining the seat so soon after the by election, which is why I think he wont stand, but it will be a very close call.
Without Farage, do we think UKIP still stand a good chance?
Welcome to PB, Mr Exile.
Devon's a wonderful place. I wouldn't mind being exiled there from here in Cambridgeshire. At least you have real hills ...
As I mentioned the other day I think anyone who thinks Newark is prime territory for UKIP is simply not living in the real world.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
As I mentioned the other day I think anyone who thinks Newark is prime territory for UKIP is simply not living in the real world.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
As I mentioned the other day I think anyone who thinks Newark is prime territory for UKIP is simply not living in the real world.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
Mr. Tyndall, Mr. T had a triple-posting on the previous thread (as you may've seen). I'm using Chrome, haven't encountered any problems. Hope your issue's resolved imminently.
Welcome Mr/Ms Exile, and an excellent first post too. How much could you get on the 5/1? I've heard rumours of unfortunately small limits.
A meagre £20, but then again I wasn't trying to put any more on - far too small time for that. Though it was £30 on UKIP with Hills, suppose that says something of my relative confidence.
Thanks for the welcome folks - is lovely down here, and more hills than my previous home of Northants (from Peter Bone to Sarah Wollaston by the way - quite the change in MP if not in controlling party).
Mr. Exile, £20 would be a larger than usual stake for me! I think the only time I put on more was when I flukily happened to be checking Twitter at the exact time Hamilton got a grid penalty in Spain and I managed to back both Maldonado and Alonso (2nd and 3rd, but promoted one spot each) to lead lap 1. That was rather splendid.
Mr. Exile, £20 would be a larger than usual stake for me! I think the only time I put on more was when I flukily happened to be checking Twitter at the exact time Hamilton got a grid penalty in Spain and I managed to back both Maldonado and Alonso (2nd and 3rd, but promoted one spot each) to lead lap 1. That was rather splendid.
It is my largest two single bets in quite some time in fairness - just generally felt the prices were too long, we'll see how future covering bets fair if needed!
If memory serves me, they tried a few others, but the ones that initially showed interest got cold feet (or tipped off depending on your point of view)
O/T I'm gobsmacked to learn that Frank Ward, former Leader of the Labour group and Parliamentary candidate, is now Chairman of Hertsmere UKIP, and running for the council with his wife and son.
The timing of Mercer's resignation is perfect...for the PB Dirty Dicks meet. Too close for a poll to be out, long enough before for us to chatter about it endlessly.
Test - trying with IE as have been unable to post with Chrome for the last 24 hours.
The odd thing is I can post with Chrome but not with IE.
Welcome to the wonderful world of the web, which is ruled by the arcane rules of RFC's and the W3C. In other words, a free-for-all. Everyone does everything a little bit differently, but nearly enough the same to sow confusion ...
For the interest of no-one, my favourite shortening is internationalisation, which in one OS became i18n.
Apologies to everyone for the multiple posts. I think I triggered a spam issue and so all my attempts to post ended up in the Spam folder. I must learn to be a bit more patient and check with the moderators before I turn a false spam issue into a real spam issue :-)
Oh and many thanks to JosiasJessop for helping me out and to the Mods for the quick response once they realised there was a problem.
Now... does anyone want me to repeat my pearls of wisdom about Newark for the 6th time? :-)
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Put the revolver and whisky down David.
Farage isn't going to stand, the risk is too great he will lose (and plenty of people would like to see him embarrassed, some of those in Newark), plus he is at present better out of the MP scrum IMO. If he loses the debates question is answered conclusively; again, he can't risk that.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
I hope you are right SO. Farage strikes me as a bit of a wimp so you might be but this is chance of the big time. Chances like this don't come around too often.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Put the revolver and whisky down David.
Farage isn't going to stand, the risk is too great he will lose (and plenty of people would like to see him embarrassed, some of those in Newark), plus he is at present better out of the MP scrum IMO. If he loses the debates question is answered conclusively; again, he can't risk that.
If he never took risks he wouldn't be where he is today.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Don't worry. Miliband was already measuring curtains for his stay in No.10, Mercer resigning and triggering a by-election won't have an impact on that outcome. Besides, a lot of Tory backbenchers appear to hate Cameron and want the Tories to be more like UKIP, and the only way that happens is if Cameron loses in 2015, so I doubt all of them would be angry with Mercer.
[I]t emerged that David Wycherley, standing for Ukip candidate for the Rushall-Shelfield ward in Walsall, had asked his Facebook friends to explain "how Mo Farah, an African … has won a Gold medal for Great Britain".
A link to the full article for those who have not yet lost the will to live: http://bit.ly/1fpXPRs
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Put the revolver and whisky down David.
Farage isn't going to stand, the risk is too great he will lose (and plenty of people would like to see him embarrassed, some of those in Newark), plus he is at present better out of the MP scrum IMO. If he loses the debates question is answered conclusively; again, he can't risk that.
If he never took risks he wouldn't be where he is today.
What risks has he taken? The LDs went and got themselves elected and so he found himself as the NOTA party. Because he has undoubted flair and ability, he capitalised on that.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
Those yellow poxes are getting to be a real disease.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
FPT - Richard, I shall be taking my mother to Page Hall road on Saturday. I shall let you know if she's moved even further to the right than Nick Griffin.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
I hope you are right SO. Farage strikes me as a bit of a wimp so you might be but this is chance of the big time. Chances like this don't come around too often.
Chance for what though? You can't grandstand in the Commons like you can in the European Parliament. You have all that dreary constituency work and come the GE you'll either be kicked out or back again sitting all on your own in the far corner of the chamber with no-one to talk to. That does not strike me as Nigel's scene. He's a bit of a Boris.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
FPT - Richard, I shall be taking my mother to Page Hall road on Saturday. I shall let you know if she's moved even further to the right than Nick Griffin.
Dress shopping again ?
Might I suggest you buy one yourself to wear at the PB piss-up ;-)
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
Marlborough prided itself on being the originator of the "School Mathematics Project" which, in my day, dumbed down the subject of mathematics by substituting advanced trigonometry for the study of Venn Diagrams. I am told we all benefitted from a more visual approach to problem solving.
Eton, I understand, was very different. Parents tended to send their children to Eton to teach them how to hold a knife and fork and to stop them saying "toilet" and "pardon".
You will have to wait for a comment from Charles to see if his alma mater succeeded in her basic aims.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
The Tories and Cameron have been incredibly lucky up to now that no by-elections occurred in areas where UKIP could win like East Anglia, Kent, Lincolnshire. They almost got away with it: in 6 months time any new vacancies wouldn't be filled before the election.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Farage will not stand. If he loses then it kills UKIP's momentum stone dead. A good second place with a local candidate will be just the job.
I hope you are right SO. Farage strikes me as a bit of a wimp so you might be but this is chance of the big time. Chances like this don't come around too often.
Chance for what though? You can't grandstand in the Commons like you can in the European Parliament. You have all that dreary constituency work and come the GE you'll either be kicked out or back again sitting all on your own in the far corner of the chamber with no-one to talk to. That does not strike me as Nigel's scene. He's a bit of a Boris.
It may well not be his scene, but he can provide his party with a major stepping stone (other single MP parties lack the bredth of support to use it as a launchpad) by becoming an MP, and so if only for the development of the party if his standing could make the difference, he should do it.
Though I too think he is more comfortable in his current role, as indeed is Boris.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
FPT - Richard, I shall be taking my mother to Page Hall road on Saturday. I shall let you know if she's moved even further to the right than Nick Griffin.
Dress shopping again ?
Might I suggest you buy one yourself to wear at the PB piss-up ;-)
Kinda, there's a new Doctor from Pakistan working at the hospital nearby, and my Mum and Dad are doing their usual shtick of showing him and his family around Sheffield.
Sadly I won't be able to make the PB meet this Friday, but I'll be there at the Ilkley one, but I won't be wearing a salwar kameez.
If I was a Tory backbencher the only conversation I would be having with Mercer would be with a shotgun. The Tories need this like a hole in the head. If Farage stands and wins he is in the debates. And Miliband is in Downing Street. What a mess.
Put the revolver and whisky down David.
Farage isn't going to stand, the risk is too great he will lose (and plenty of people would like to see him embarrassed, some of those in Newark), plus he is at present better out of the MP scrum IMO. If he loses the debates question is answered conclusively; again, he can't risk that.
If he never took risks he wouldn't be where he is today.
What risks has he taken? The LDs went and got themselves elected and so he found himself as the NOTA party. Because he has undoubted flair and ability, he capitalised on that.
Wow that was some goal.
He's taken UKIP from nothing to the 3rd party, seizing the leadership, seizing the moment on a number of occasions and making a number of bold public statements which though they've played beautifully were not without risk.
[I]t emerged that David Wycherley, standing for Ukip candidate for the Rushall-Shelfield ward in Walsall, had asked his Facebook friends to explain "how Mo Farah, an African … has won a Gold medal for Great Britain".
A link to the full article for those who have not yet lost the will to live: http://bit.ly/1fpXPRs
The Guardian are good at finding fruitcakes, they rumbled that pillock Willetts and his Uni fee disaster only last month. Oxford man - no brains.
[I]t emerged that David Wycherley, standing for Ukip candidate for the Rushall-Shelfield ward in Walsall, had asked his Facebook friends to explain "how Mo Farah, an African … has won a Gold medal for Great Britain".
A link to the full article for those who have not yet lost the will to live: http://bit.ly/1fpXPRs
I like the way they left out "who trains in America" after the word "African" just to mislead the reader into thinking it really was racist
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
Marlborough prided itself on being the originator of the "School Mathematics Project" which, in my day, dumbed down the subject of mathematics by substituting advanced trigonometry for the study of Venn Diagrams. I am told we all benefitted from a more visual approach to problem solving.
Eton, I understand, was very different. Parents tended to send their children to Eton to teach them how to hold a knife and fork and to stop them saying "toilet" and "pardon".
You will have to wait for a comment from Charles to see if his alma mater succeeded in her basic aims.
I assume they pick up such unfortunate words as 'toilet' and 'pardon' from their servants.
Does Eton take long to instruct them that the correct words are 'bog' and 'what'.
The depths of Mercer's dislike for Cameron are quite remarkable. Maybe one day when I am old and the two of them are no longer with us I might repeat a few of the more choice comments but for now they are definitely not for public consumption.
Why is everyone getting so excited about the Newark by election?
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Avery
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
Marlborough prided itself on being the originator of the "School Mathematics Project" which, in my day, dumbed down the subject of mathematics by substituting advanced trigonometry for the study of Venn Diagrams. I am told we all benefitted from a more visual approach to problem solving.
Eton, I understand, was very different. Parents tended to send their children to Eton to teach them how to hold a knife and fork and to stop them saying "toilet" and "pardon".
You will have to wait for a comment from Charles to see if his alma mater succeeded in her basic aims.
I assume they pick up such unfortunate words as 'toilet' and 'pardon' from their servants.
Does Eton take long to instruct them that the correct words are 'bog' and 'what'.
Charles prefers instant coffee - what more can I say ?
I hope Farage doesn't stand mainly because I have backed him to stand elsewhere in the GE!
But also I think, as someone said downthread, that it would ruin the "anti establishment" schtick, and the figurehead of the party in the GE campaign would be bogged down in sorting out the pot holes in Newark or whatever it is MP's do rather than touring the country!
@ChrisGibsonNews: Coming up on @BBCNews. Nigel Farage says he's 'seriously tempted' to stand in Newark but has reservations as he's got 'no local connections'
I am not actually sure. In all our conversations about him all I know is that he never had a good word to say - he referred to him continuously as 'the boy Cameron' - and that he would never miss an opportunity to put him down., He certainly didn't like the fact he won the party leadership and was, as I remember, a David Davis man.
Comments
However, I think there is a Belgian constituency that is so small that it only actually elects one MEP - in other words, it's FPTP by another name. We could always copy the Belgians and have FPTP by the back door.
Personally, I loathe the fact the closed list system used in the Euros. Can we please have multi-member STV instead as it would (a) allow people to vote against Andrew Duff, (b) reduce the party machine influence, and (c) increase the (currently extremely tenuous) connection between voters and MEPs.
I think it is what happened when those Labour MPs who had lost the whip when they were charged over expenses and then were subsequently imprisoned.
Thought it was a civil matter.
Under FPTP, the likelihood is that only UKIP, Labour, and SNP would win seats (outside Northern Ireland).
Have taken the 3/1 on UKIP with Hills to win any by election this parliament (bottled the 7/2 this afternoon as any expert would...) and also the 5/1 on Farage to stand.
Wouldn't want less than 2/1 on UKIP until we see how it pans out, but the 5/1 on Farage looks very big. No need to rehearse what others have said, but while I'd make it just a shade odds against that he stands, 5/1 is quite a distance out there.
Farage would clearly attract the older Labour protest vote against a young Tory, and in a by election so close to the General Election there would be almost no reason for the people of Newark not to protest vote knowing they can get another go in less than a years time. It is almost built for Farage standing and UKIP winning.
The doubt for him must be retaining the seat so soon after the by election, which is why I think he wont stand, but it will be a very close call.
Without Farage, do we think UKIP still stand a good chance?
If he doesn't stand not only does UKIP not shoot its bolt but there will be an impression of strength in depth...the best is yet to come...etc...
Plus, if he ends up as an MP he will slightly have to dismount his high anti-establishment NOTA, they're all in it for themselves horse.
Spent many childhood holidays in Devon, and really rather liked it.
The by-election should be rather interesting.
I am interested in what the LD share might well be. As they are third behind Labour I'd expect them to drop by half to around 10% anyway, and add in the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting to help Labour/UKIP and perhaps they'd be in danger of losing their deposit again?
Devon's a wonderful place. I wouldn't mind being exiled there from here in Cambridgeshire. At least you have real hills ...
As I mentioned the other day I think anyone who thinks Newark is prime territory for UKIP is simply not living in the real world.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
As I mentioned the other day I think anyone who thinks Newark is prime territory for UKIP is simply not living in the real world.
If you look at council results UKIP have uniformly done badly. The town has a very large second and third generation Polish population as a result of the settlement after the war and the presence of the Polish War cemetery - where incidently I stood a few hours ago after burying my Grandmother. RIP Nan.
The established Polish population in the town has meant we have received more Poles both during the later part of the Cold War when refugees were coming over to escape the crackdown and also of course after Poland joined the EU.
After the last set of boundary changes the constituency lost the more Labour leaning Retford and gained portions of what had been Ken Clarke's constituency around Bingham. Not exactly fertile UKIP territory.
I will of course be over there helping to campaign for any UKIP candidate but my 40 plus years living in the town tells me that it is going to be very hard for either Labour or UKIP to make any inroads.
Thanks for the welcome folks - is lovely down here, and more hills than my previous home of Northants (from Peter Bone to Sarah Wollaston by the way - quite the change in MP if not in controlling party).
"Which, if any, of the following parties do you think best stands up
for the interests of England?
UKIP: 23%
Lab: 17%
Con: 16%
LD: 4%"
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0ykhwztjoq/UniversityofCardiff_FoES_England_140422_website.pdf
If memory serves me, they tried a few others, but the ones that initially showed interest got cold feet (or tipped off depending on your point of view)
Zing!
I don't think @Nigel_Farage will be UKIP's candidate in Newark. My money's on @RogerHelmerMEP.
How's electoral law on this?
How's electoral law on this?
For the interest of no-one, my favourite shortening is internationalisation, which in one OS became i18n.
@RogerHelmerMEP: Defamatory stories in the Sun & the Indy: We are preparing a formal Police Complaint under the Representation of the People Act.
Oh and many thanks to JosiasJessop for helping me out and to the Mods for the quick response once they realised there was a problem.
Now... does anyone want me to repeat my pearls of wisdom about Newark for the 6th time? :-)
Newark is far too civilised for Farage.
And can anyone see College swapping the unaccountability of allowances for the rigour of expenses?
Bit like GE2015!!
Farage isn't going to stand, the risk is too great he will lose (and plenty of people would like to see him embarrassed, some of those in Newark), plus he is at present better out of the MP scrum IMO. If he loses the debates question is answered conclusively; again, he can't risk that.
Will be interesting to see what that shows.
Farage can't stand. He is busy leading the EU campaign, which must be built around him. Who could they draft in to that? Bongo guy?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27208603
Point of order, however: Robin Hood wanted lower taxes, as the high taxes were oppressing the people.
Calling it a Robin Hood Tax is as misleading a title as the Sean Thomas Monastic Retreat.
Perhaps you could help with a question which is baffling me.
Why have we been treated to such voluminous outpourings of yellow boxes from your good self whilst Charles is so reluctant to display his statistical rigour ?
Is this caused by a fundamental difference between you Marlborough Men and the old boys of Eton College ?
This time it seems that Mo Farah is the target:
[I]t emerged that David Wycherley, standing for Ukip candidate for the Rushall-Shelfield ward in Walsall, had asked his Facebook friends to explain "how Mo Farah, an African … has won a Gold medal for Great Britain".
A link to the full article for those who have not yet lost the will to live: http://bit.ly/1fpXPRs
Wow that was some goal.
Might I suggest you buy one yourself to wear at the PB piss-up ;-)
Eton, I understand, was very different. Parents tended to send their children to Eton to teach them how to hold a knife and fork and to stop them saying "toilet" and "pardon".
You will have to wait for a comment from Charles to see if his alma mater succeeded in her basic aims.
"Those yellow poxes are getting to be a real disease.
The yellow peril......spinning here.
(could he be a Lib Dem agent?)
Though I too think he is more comfortable in his current role, as indeed is Boris.
Sadly I won't be able to make the PB meet this Friday, but I'll be there at the Ilkley one, but I won't be wearing a salwar kameez.
The press wants Farage to stand
The country wants to see Farage stand
Or he can bottle it.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB
Does Eton take long to instruct them that the correct words are 'bog' and 'what'.
The depths of Mercer's dislike for Cameron are quite remarkable. Maybe one day when I am old and the two of them are no longer with us I might repeat a few of the more choice comments but for now they are definitely not for public consumption.
But also I think, as someone said downthread, that it would ruin the "anti establishment" schtick, and the figurehead of the party in the GE campaign would be bogged down in sorting out the pot holes in Newark or whatever it is MP's do rather than touring the country!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
I think the word is Frit...
Jane Collins @Jane4ukip
“Some papers reckon UKIP had a "disastrous week", as it polls 31% & 1st in a national poll" Let's hope next week is just as disastrous !!!"