The guards load into the pig in normal fashion....though a bit neater,gates open, and "Miggo" starts to drive. Bang on the bulkhead, he hits the brakes...the door opens, the officer stands at the side of the pig while his men file out, stand in line and are given the order to find cover. The officer then shuts the door, and "Miggo" swears he can hear "on you go driver" as he floors the throttle on the pig. (They had learned how to dismount on the very next run)
Could Newark actually give a boost to Cameron? If Farage runs, he will now be expected to win easily, but the Tory candidate actually looks highly capable, brought up in the Midlands from a small business family, educated at a state primary and Wolverhampton Grammar, 1st from Cambridge, then Penn U, followed by a career as a commercial lawyer and Director at Christie's he looks far more qualified than Farage and he has obviously already been nursing the seat, unlike Farage who will parachute into the seat with no links as a 'carpetbagger.' Bear in mind too that the Tories gained Newark in 2001 despite losing heavily nationally so it is pretty strong Tory territory. If the Tories hold the seat, Dave can punch any boost UKIP getting from topping the Euro polls, and if Labour come 3rd in a seat Blair win in 1997 that will also throw the pressure right back on Ed M!
The Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, does look good. From your neck of the woods too, HYUFD!
His current job with Christies is an eye-opener. Not a typical cv for Christies, so he is likely to have something about him.
Paxman to Barbara Roach, head of a "Cross Party Campaign to tackle UKIP"
"Doesn't the very formation of a cross party campaign from old vested interests like you and your colleagues on other parties demonstrate precisely why UKIP is successful, because you're out of touch with public opinion, and they're not?"
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
You're behind the times. The claim now is that it is Labour which has most to fear from UKIP.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
No riots in Bath, just a few tired sloganising leftoids hurling abuse at UKIP scum. No damage to Forum, no one thrown out. Largely middle aged audience, some students on a field trip. Plenty of cameras on Farage. UKIP candidates all wore blazers even the woman.
Farage different qualitiy as a speaker, funny, plague on all your houses stuff. Jokes about PPE students tripping from SPAD to MP to becoming MP then minister. Not impressed with quality of other SW List candidates - v mixed bag. Interesting evening due to lack of fisticuffs and catcalls.
Not sure if they have other speakers as energised as Niglet.
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
Barbara Roche in 2005 unexpectedly lost her seat on a large 14.6% swing. Factors in her defeat include her association with many of the Labour government's more unpopular policies, such as the crucial 26 March 2003 vote on the war on Iraq,with The Times describing her in 2005 as "a fiercely loyal Labour MP, who has only rebelled against the Government in four out of 1,570 votes."
Fartage loves a publicity stunt. But also he is a jealous ruler of a fractious party. If someone else stands and wins, they will have a very high profile, as the defacto voice of UKIP.
Nigel cannot risk that, he prefers to be the big fish in a small pond.
DavidL Disagree, the Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, has already been selected and looks highly capable and Farage will be a carpetbagger. If Farage is beaten that will instantly blow a hole in the momentum UKIP gains from winning the Euros (this will not be a by-election solely on Europe), and if Labour is 3rd in a seat Blair gained in '97 that will be humiliating for Ed Miliband, and with the LDs unlikely to trouble the scorers it could be a huge and unexpected boost for Dave!
UKIP to win zero seats at next GE. You heard it here first... (Gets coat and leaves quietly)
No, that's probably right, and I think most Kippers accept that even with current elation. They might breakthrough if they retain enough of their current polling, sheer chance will mean enough UKIP votes clump together in one area to win eventually, but it's not sure thing.
You're assuming that UKIP are going to fight the next GE at 650 odd by-elections. Farage has been quite open about ruthlessly targeting about a dozen seats in fertile UKIP ground in Kent, Lincolnshire and the like. It would be stupid to make a prediction about how many seats they'll win in 54 weeks time, there are just so many variables up in the air. I think one of the critical things to get an ever stronger wind behind UKIP at the GE will be a dramatic re-emergence of the debt crisis across the eurozone and general insecurity amongst the electorate with regard to jobs etc.
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
The conflation of Europe with EU has been one of their triumphs, true, meaning under their definition once cannot be a good European if you do not also support a hopelessly inept and expanding bureaucratic super-state. They can see that there is a difference, but they don't want there to be so pretend there isn't.
I would vote to stay in, probably, as I fear the consequences of leaving, and would like to believe a restructuring of the EU to remove many of the bad bits could take place, but the drivers of the EU accept not genuine criticism or accept any desire for change not in their favoured direction as valid, so it will never happen, alas.
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
You would think the fact that Farage has two daughters by a German wife would be enough to put a stop to claims that he fronts a party that "hates Europe"
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment.
Roche represents nobody as her fruitless attempts to find a CLP desperate enough to adopt her as a candidate last time out proved. Why people like her (and even McShane who is constantly in the letters page of the FT) get any attention at all is beyond me.
AveryLP Indeed, I see he spent part of his childhood in Herefordshire which also commends him. Robert Jenrick is clearly no Maria Hutchings, and is both brighter than Farage as well as having had a highly successful career outside politics. Having been selected last Autumn he will obviously already have been out and about in the seat and from his website seems clearly interested in local issues. Don't forget as OGH points out Farage's idea of campaigning is spending the day of the election flying above his seat (endangering his life as it turns out in the process), when he is not in the pub. That may work at the Euros where his media presence is what counts as the leader in a PR election with huge regions, but a Westminster by-election in a tight marginal seat under FPTP where getting every vote out counts is a whole different kettle of fish!
UKIP to win zero seats at next GE. You heard it here first... (Gets coat and leaves quietly)
No, that's probably right, and I think most Kippers accept that even with current elation. They might breakthrough if they retain enough of their current polling, sheer chance will mean enough UKIP votes clump together in one area to win eventually, but it's not sure thing.
You're assuming that UKIP are going to fight the next GE at 650 odd by-elections. Farage has been quite open about ruthlessly targeting about a dozen seats in fertile UKIP ground in Kent, Lincolnshire and the like. It would be stupid to make a prediction about how many seats they'll win in 54 weeks time, there are just so many variables up in the air. I think one of the critical things to get an ever stronger wind behind UKIP at the GE will be a dramatic re-emergence of the debt crisis across the eurozone and general insecurity amongst the electorate with regard to jobs etc.
I assume nothing of the kind. I would expect them to target seriously the few seats they think they have the best chance, just as you say. I was merely saying that if a party's overall vote share gets high enough, then sheer chance will see them get a seat eventually, I wasn't saying that is a sensible strategy for winning one, nor that I think they will one in 2015.
Fartage loves a publicity stunt. But also he is a jealous ruler of a fractious party. If someone else stands and wins, they will have a very high profile, as the defacto voice of UKIP.
Nigel cannot risk that, he prefers to be the big fish in a small pond.
"Not a typical cv for Christies, so he is likely to have something about him."
Good school/family connections?
Well that is the traditional route in.
Jenrick did get a Cambridge First but apart from that there is nothing else in his backstory which suggests he would become the "youngest director" of the company (an oft expressed claim mostly proved inaccurate).
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
You would think the fact that Farage has two daughters by a German wife would be enough to put a stop to claims that he fronts a party that "hates Europe"
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
Did you see Carswell's piece in today's Telegraph?
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
You're behind the times. The claim now is that it is Labour which has most to fear from UKIP.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
Ironic from someone addicted to the Cameron brand of snake oil.
In a series of postings on her Facebook page, Jackie Garnett, who is standing to become a Ukip councillor in Oldham, proposed that all mosques should be destroyed and accused Muslims of carrying out “ethnic cleansing” against the English.
Describing her home town of Oldham as disintegrating because of “the immigrants”, she accused “the Muslims” of turning “many of the small areas of the town into ghettos”. She added: “Ethnic cleansing is going on in this country and its the english (sic) that are being diluted.”
Fartage loves a publicity stunt. But also he is a jealous ruler of a fractious party. If someone else stands and wins, they will have a very high profile, as the defacto voice of UKIP.
Nigel cannot risk that, he prefers to be the big fish in a small pond.
Fartage loves a publicity stunt. But also he is a jealous ruler of a fractious party. If someone else stands and wins, they will have a very high profile, as the defacto voice of UKIP.
Nigel cannot risk that, he prefers to be the big fish in a small pond.
In a series of postings on her Facebook page, Jackie Garnett, who is standing to become a Ukip councillor in Oldham, proposed that all mosques should be destroyed and accused Muslims of carrying out “ethnic cleansing” against the English.
Describing her home town of Oldham as disintegrating because of “the immigrants”, she accused “the Muslims” of turning “many of the small areas of the town into ghettos”. She added: “Ethnic cleansing is going on in this country and its the english (sic) that are being diluted.”
DavidL If I were Dave I would be playing down Tory chances immensely, let the media and the bookies feed Farage's ego, while quietly getting CCHQ to pour resources and volunteers into the seat and fight the campaign around what seems to be a highly effective candidate 'working for the people of Newark'. If Farage then falls flat on his face, and Labour is 3rd in a seat Blair won, that would be a huge boost before the summer recess and wipe out any bad news from the Euro polls!
As for the UKIP threat to Labour, I think the real threat is the enormous chasm in Labour support on the social axis between the socially liberal Islington set and the socially conservative traditional working class Labour support. It amazes me just how little Miliband has done to reconnect with the traditional working class Labour voter which haemorrhaged badly for them at the 2010GE.
My guess is that Miliband and his electoral advisors have calculated that there aren't enough of these voters in the marginal seats that matter, and they're a declining segment anyway, but I still think it carries a very significant risk for them, and one that UKIP is increasingly moving into the vacuum to expose.
Regarding the animosity between Cameron and Mercer, recall that Mercer (along with Bercow) was heavily rumoured to be about to defect to New Labour when Gordon arrived on the scene, as one of 'Brown's Blues'. I doubt that kind of shenanigans endeared him.
So does anyone disagree that Labour have no chance ?
But what will the media narrative become ?
If it becomes "Labour need to win to show they're on course for government" then EdM's got problems.
It it becomes "Labour can't win but they're vote will collapse to let in UKIP" then EdM's got problems. Not specifically in Newark but generally if former Labour wwc voters get even further encouragement to vote UKIP.
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
You're behind the times. The claim now is that it is Labour which has most to fear from UKIP.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
Ironic from someone addicted to the Cameron brand of snake oil.
Yes, the brand which makes it absolutely clear that there are no quick fixes, that we need to get the deficit, welfare, and education back on track and that this will take years, that has achieved the best recovery from the worst position in the G7, that doesn't pretend everything is either the fault of the EU or nothing to do with the EU, that recognises the world and attitudes have changed in the last thirty years, and which above all is delivering what it said on the tin, both in terms of the party leadership (modernisation of the party, which is what he was elected to do), and putting Britain back on track after the blunders of the Labour years.
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
You would think the fact that Farage has two daughters by a German wife would be enough to put a stop to claims that he fronts a party that "hates Europe"
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
Did you see Carswell's piece in today's Telegraph?
Rather good, I thought, and gives a believable reason for the groupthink attack on UKIP that is currently going on.
Just read it via your link, thanks.
Absolutely brilliant and spot on. If Carswell stood in Hornchurch & Upminster I'd vote for him. Hope he defects to UKIP soon.
Peter Hitchens devotes a chapter in one of his books from about ten years ago, (The Abolition of Britain?) to lobby journalists being in the pockets of MP's who take them for expensive lunches in return for good copy. Had it not been for the internet no doubt they would have called the EU debates for Clegg.
So does anyone disagree that Labour have no chance ?
But what will the media narrative become ?
If it becomes "Labour need to win to show they're on course for government" then EdM's got problems.
It it becomes "Labour can't win but they're vote will collapse to let in UKIP" then EdM's got problems. Not specifically in Newark but generally if former Labour wwc voters get even further encouragement to vote UKIP.
I can almost hear the Labour spokesperson on election night saying "Well, our vote held up quite well in the circumstances".
Regarding the animosity between Cameron and Mercer, recall that Mercer (along with Bercow) was heavily rumoured to be about to defect to New Labour when Gordon arrived on the scene, as one of 'Brown's Blues'. I doubt that kind of shenanigans endeared him.
In a series of postings on her Facebook page, Jackie Garnett, who is standing to become a Ukip councillor in Oldham, proposed that all mosques should be destroyed and accused Muslims of carrying out “ethnic cleansing” against the English.
Describing her home town of Oldham as disintegrating because of “the immigrants”, she accused “the Muslims” of turning “many of the small areas of the town into ghettos”. She added: “Ethnic cleansing is going on in this country and its the english (sic) that are being diluted.”
I have a feeling this campaign by the papers isn't going to work, partly because people recognise some of these UKIP councillors aren't the brightest people in the world to begin with.
Will look like he is just using the place as a publicity stunt with no regard for the constituents
If UKIP win the Euros, whoever they pick will have a great chance of winning
Completely agree. He should stand in Thanet South so I can win the bet with Shadsy
Why Nigel Farage might not stand in Newark
"Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election.
What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the fact that the Reform party had picked “a completely unknown geography mistress, who lived in the town, who had lots of relations there”. He seemed to think that this was the key to their success, and it is this that makes me think he’ll take some persuading not to back a local candidate in Newark. Indeed, one of the things that Farage took away from his experience in Buckingham at the last election was how hard it is for an outsider to turn up a constituency and immediately lay claim to representing it in parliament. "
Another reason Farage wouldn't stand is that we might get the bizarre spectacle of Labour and Lib Dem supporters rallying to the Tories in a stop-UKIP manoeuvre. One should appreciate how loathed UKIP now are amongst much of the Left to the extent that even the pleasure at the trouble they cause Dave is wearing thin. We've seen similar phenomena in the past with the BNP and Sinn Féin so why not?
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
One can't be certain. UKIP , like any number of insurgent parties, may fall apart. And that would save the Tories. But, there's little doubt that the sort of people the Conservatives have depended on in many locality are heavily disaffected.
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
One can't be certain. UKIP , like any number of insurgent parties, may fall apart. And that would save the Tories. But, there's little doubt that the sort of people the Conservatives have depended on in many locality are heavily disaffected.
DavidL If I were Dave I would be playing down Tory chances immensely, let the media and the bookies feed Farage's ego, while quietly getting CCHQ to pour resources and volunteers into the seat and fight the campaign around what seems to be a highly effective candidate 'working for the people of Newark'. If Farage then falls flat on his face, and Labour is 3rd in a seat Blair won, that would be a huge boost before the summer recess and wipe out any bad news from the Euro polls!
I would be amazed if all of the major parties have not had full time professionals on the ground for weeks. This has hardly come out of the blue and today's outcome is not a surprise. No doubt the feedback from these professionals will inform Farage's decision rather more than any media "pressure".
But there are tides in political events and UKIP's profile is in danger of falling off a cliff once the Euros are out of the way. They need this as much as the tories don't.
Regarding the animosity between Cameron and Mercer, recall that Mercer (along with Bercow) was heavily rumoured to be about to defect to New Labour when Gordon arrived on the scene, as one of 'Brown's Blues'. I doubt that kind of shenanigans endeared him.
Nope. The animosity predated that by a number of years.
Did Mercer hate Cameron even before Cameron became prominent after the 2005 general election ?
Not entirely sure because of course until he popped up as a possible leadership candidate we didn't really discuss him. Certainly Mercer's dislike for him appeared to be fully formed by the time the leadership campaign was underway.
Will look like he is just using the place as a publicity stunt with no regard for the constituents
If UKIP win the Euros, whoever they pick will have a great chance of winning
Completely agree. He should stand in Thanet South so I can win the bet with Shadsy
Why Nigel Farage might not stand in Newark
"Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election.
What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the fact that the Reform party had picked “a completely unknown geography mistress, who lived in the town, who had lots of relations there”. He seemed to think that this was the key to their success, and it is this that makes me think he’ll take some persuading not to back a local candidate in Newark. Indeed, one of the things that Farage took away from his experience in Buckingham at the last election was how hard it is for an outsider to turn up a constituency and immediately lay claim to representing it in parliament. "
I've got a lot of time for that argument. I'm a firm believer that for some time before an election MPs should be living in, or adjacent to, the constituency they want to represent. On that basis (and with no other coinsiderations), I'd favour the Labour candidate over the Conservative one.
Would it be unkind to ask how your stock market crash is coming along?
You're most welcome to ask! We've seeing a lot of the underpinning of the market rally starting to shred, what with biotech / general tech stocks and smaller stocks (Nasdaq and Russell indexes in the US) showing marked weakness relative to the Dow and the Transports. And we're seeing marked monthly / daily relative strength divergences indicative of a top. But topping processes take a long long time. The 31st December 2013 closing high for the Dow still hasn't been exceeded, although its very close at the close today granted. Some of my indicators suggest a marginal high on Thursday after the FOMC minutes tomorrow, in an ending diagonal triangle structure. There are a couple of other important cycle lows due at this time as well, an 18 month bottoming cycle in the US Dollar (critically holding above 79 on its trade weighted USDXY index), and a 93 week cycle low in bond market yields. And we're running into the seasonally weak time of the year for stocks as well. And we've had largely sideways trading for the first 4 months of this year.
Apart from a few select US markets (which grab nearly all the attention!) making notional highs, not highs in real terms allowing for inflation, or in terms of real money (gold) - most European markets are off their peaks right now as a further divergence. And look at the markets in China and Russia, they are most firmly in bear market territory.
And when things finally do turn south, which I think is pretty imminent, it will be a sight to behold, just as the next 54 weeks in UK politics will be! Bring it on.
Andy JS Blair won Newark in 1997, so Miliband needs to at least have a strong second to be on course for power if he cannot win. If the Tories win and Labour come in 3rd behind UKIP in that would be a disaster for him in key Midlands marginals
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
You're behind the times. The claim now is that it is Labour which has most to fear from UKIP.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
Ironic from someone addicted to the Cameron brand of snake oil.
Yes, the brand which makes it absolutely clear that there are no quick fixes, that we need to get the deficit, welfare, and education back on track and that this will take years, that has achieved the best recovery from the worst position in the G7, that doesn't pretend everything is either the fault of the EU or nothing to do with the EU, that recognises the world and attitudes have changed in the last thirty years, and which above all is delivering what it said on the tin, both in terms of the party leadership (modernisation of the party, which is what he was elected to do), and putting Britain back on track after the blunders of the Labour years.
Well said RN. Labour already saying they will disassemble Gove's reforms.
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
You would think the fact that Farage has two daughters by a German wife would be enough to put a stop to claims that he fronts a party that "hates Europe"
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
Did you see Carswell's piece in today's Telegraph?
Rather good, I thought, and gives a believable reason for the groupthink attack on UKIP that is currently going on.
Wonderful piece from Carswell as always, but then I'm biased as he is my favourite MP along with Steve Baker from Wycombe. Carswell would get my vote any day of the week, and he certainly isn't a Cameron fan whatsoever.
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
I agree it is unlikely that UKIP would win in Newark but I doubt that would be because of Jenrick. Indeed he strikes me as a particlarly poor candidate for a constituency that has traditionally prefered more individually minded candidates - at least from the Conservatives. Both Richard Alexander and Pat Mercer were popular because they distanced themselves from their party and put the constituency first. Fiona Jones was intensely disliked because she always put party before constituency. So far Jenrick appears to be a party man through and through and I am not sure how well that will sit in Newark.
Regarding the animosity between Cameron and Mercer, recall that Mercer (along with Bercow) was heavily rumoured to be about to defect to New Labour when Gordon arrived on the scene, as one of 'Brown's Blues'. I doubt that kind of shenanigans endeared him.
Nope. The animosity predated that by a number of years.
Did Mercer hate Cameron even before Cameron became prominent after the 2005 general election ?
Not entirely sure because of course until he popped up as a possible leadership candidate we didn't really discuss him. Certainly Mercer's dislike for him appeared to be fully formed by the time the leadership campaign was underway.
I wonder if it can be connected with the two anecdotes Charles has of Cameron.
In particular the one about Cameron 'not knowing how to listen'.
I'm actually slightly in awe of Dan Hodges, it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions. Anyone with any self-respect in his position would've given up a long time ago.
Would it be unkind to ask how your stock market crash is coming along?
You're most welcome to ask! We've seeing a lot of the underpinning of the market rally starting to shred, what with biotech / general tech stocks and smaller stocks (Nasdaq and Russell indexes in the US) showing marked weakness relative to the Dow and the Transports. And we're seeing marked monthly / daily relative strength divergences indicative of a top. But topping processes take a long long time. The 31st December 2013 closing high for the Dow still hasn't been exceeded, although its very close at the close today granted. Some of my indicators suggest a marginal high on Thursday after the FOMC minutes tomorrow, in an ending diagonal triangle structure. There are a couple of other important cycle lows due at this time as well, an 18 month bottoming cycle in the US Dollar (critically holding above 79 on its trade weighted USDXY index), and a 93 week cycle low in bond market yields. And we're running into the seasonally weak time of the year for stocks as well. And we've had largely sideways trading for the first 4 months of this year.
Apart from a few select US markets (which grab nearly all the attention!) making notional highs, not highs in real terms allowing for inflation, or in terms of real money (gold) - most European markets are off their peaks right now as a further divergence. And look at the markets in China and Russia, they are most firmly in bear market territory.
And when things finally do turn south, which I think is pretty imminent, it will be a sight to behold, just as the next 54 weeks in UK politics will be! Bring it on.
I do share your concerns about China. That is the largest bubble the world has ever seen and if it pops all markets will be radically affected. But short of a pop over there it seems likely to me that further modest progress will be the message in both the US and the UK for the remainder of this year. Things may well change when interest rates start to creep up which I still think is more likely to be the end of this year than the beginning of next.
Andy JS Blair won Newark in 1997, so Miliband needs to at least have a strong second to be on course for power if he cannot win. If the Tories win and Labour come in 3rd behind UKIP in that would be a disaster for him in key Midlands marginals
Extrapolating party prospects at a GE from one seat is nonsense. For starters, Newark 2014 is on much more favourable boundaries to the Conservatives when compared to 1997. Then I'm guessing that there is still some residual negative for Labour from Fiona Jones, without knowing the area. And the demographic changes towards a more elderly electorate over the years have hardly been favourable to Labour over the past 17 years.
Labour could do poorly in the by-election here and comfortably win the GE. Individual constituencies and their electorates change over time favouring certain parties over others, you can't just make a blanket comparison with May 1st 1997.
Andy JS Blair won Newark in 1997, so Miliband needs to at least have a strong second to be on course for power if he cannot win. If the Tories win and Labour come in 3rd behind UKIP in that would be a disaster for him in key Midlands marginals
The current Newark seat isn't exactly the same as the pre-2010 version. In 2010 Retford in the Dukeries mining area was transferred to Bassetlaw, and in return the wealthy commuting town of Bingham came in from Ken Clarke's Rushcliffe.
2005 actual result: (previous boundaries)
Con 21,946 Lab 15,482 LD 7,276 Oth 992
Con maj 6,464
2005 notional result: (current boundaries)
Con 22,950 Lab 12,873 LD 8,354 Oth 1,267
Con maj 10,077
Difference: 3,613
Lab maj in 1997 was 3,016 so the Tories might have held the current seat in that year by about 500 votes.
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
Well there is this.
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over.
And when things finally do turn south, which I think is pretty imminent
Tbf you've thought it was pretty imminent for a bit of time now!
Are you around for the drinks on Friday?
Would love to be able to chat with everyone at this fascinating juncture on Friday night, but unfortunately have got a flight early on Saturday to Cyprus on holiday next week. And I'll be glad to get away from the cold snap headed for the UK this weekend, gardeners need to watch out, I wouldn't go planting anything frost sensitive yet before we get the cold snap out of the way - from what I can see from Piers Corbyn at WeatherAction, who has a mighty impressive record, the Met Office / Beeb are underestimating the coming cold snap - lets see.
Did someone say Roger Helmer might stand downthread? Was it a joke? He does represent the East Midlands as an MEP
The bad blood between him and the Newton-Dunn's goes back a long way... no wonder The Sun's political editor ran a story to smear his Dad's nemesis
"Helmer delayed standing down, before it was announced on 2 March 2012 that he had defected from the Conservatives to the United Kingdom Independence Party.[2] He faced accusations of hypocrisy as he had demanded in November 2000, that MEP Bill Newton Dunn immediately resign as a result of his move from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.[11]"
Interested to see Barbara Roche on Newsnight just. She typifies the metropolitan elite's hectoring moral superiority that so many of us find so off putting about the political establishment. Well its time to give them one in the eye, which they totally deserve.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
You would think the fact that Farage has two daughters by a German wife would be enough to put a stop to claims that he fronts a party that "hates Europe"
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
Did you see Carswell's piece in today's Telegraph?
Rather good, I thought, and gives a believable reason for the groupthink attack on UKIP that is currently going on.
Just read it via your link, thanks.
Absolutely brilliant and spot on. If Carswell stood in Hornchurch & Upminster I'd vote for him. Hope he defects to UKIP soon.
Peter Hitchens devotes a chapter in one of his books from about ten years ago, (The Abolition of Britain?) to lobby journalists being in the pockets of MP's who take them for expensive lunches in return for good copy. Had it not been for the internet no doubt they would have called the EU debates for Clegg.
Carswell, like Hannan, seems to talk a lot sense to me but I don't think either of them will be leaving the Conservative party any time soon. If I were a political purist, I might try and make a thing of that but as a political pragmatist I am prepared to accept their apparently self-serving loyalty to the Conservative party.
As for the Lobby, I am amazed that it still exists. It must be thirty years since its corrupt nature was exposed in Yes Minister, more than a decade after the Campbell shennaigans were exposed yet it still goes on, and people still pay attention to the writings of the journalists that are part of that dreadful conspiracy. Newspapers have been screaming about press-freedom yet they freely accept the Lobby system. Beats me.
But short of a pop over there it seems likely to me that further modest progress will be the message in both the US and the UK for the remainder of this year. Things may well change when interest rates start to creep up which I still think is more likely to be the end of this year than the beginning of next.
There's a danger time for UK equities coming up in September: the combination of IndyRef immediately followed by the Labour Conference looks potentially toxic to me. I shall be getting out of UK-focused companies, and especially any which might be hit by Milibanditry (utilities, retailers, UK banks and insurance companies, housebuilders, UK-focused outsourcers etc), some time before that.
No need to exit from UK-quoted but internationally-focused companies like Rolls Royce, Unilever, GSK, Shell, BHP Billiton etc of course; indeed some of them would benefit from weak Sterling.
[This is not financial advice, do your own research, you might lose your shirt etc etc]
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
I agree it is unlikely that UKIP would win in Newark but I doubt that would be because of Jenrick. Indeed he strikes me as a particlarly poor candidate for a constituency that has traditionally prefered more individually minded candidates - at least from the Conservatives. Both Richard Alexander and Pat Mercer were popular because they distanced themselves from their party and put the constituency first. Fiona Jones was intensely disliked because she always put party before constituency. So far Jenrick appears to be a party man through and through and I am not sure how well that will sit in Newark.
Richard
Why not put yourself forward as UKIP's candidate for Newark?
My only worry in making this suggestion is that Farage may not be a supportive of your independent thinking as your potential constituents!
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
Piers Corbyn? That old Trot! I also have an early flight on Saturday but I couldnt leave JohnO without a fellow PB Tory to sup cocktails with. Hope you enjoy Cyprus, it's one of my favourite places.
His background is not of the Etonian chumocracy so hated by tim. Indeed he comes from the small business class that was the heartland of provincial Conservatism, much the same origins as Councillor Roberts of Grantham.
This seems to be the family business: http://www.charltonandjenrick.co.uk/ Founded in 1986 and now employing 120 and manufacturing on five sites.
I do not know Newark that well, but have been there on a number of occasions. It is not a radical and free thinking place, and the remainder of the Constituency is Nottingham commuter villages.
It will be interesting to see how the odds move, usually there is good money to be made betting against the kippers.
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
I agree it is unlikely that UKIP would win in Newark but I doubt that would be because of Jenrick. Indeed he strikes me as a particlarly poor candidate for a constituency that has traditionally prefered more individually minded candidates - at least from the Conservatives. Both Richard Alexander and Pat Mercer were popular because they distanced themselves from their party and put the constituency first. Fiona Jones was intensely disliked because she always put party before constituency. So far Jenrick appears to be a party man through and through and I am not sure how well that will sit in Newark.
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
I agree it is unlikely that UKIP would win in Newark but I doubt that would be because of Jenrick. Indeed he strikes me as a particlarly poor candidate for a constituency that has traditionally prefered more individually minded candidates - at least from the Conservatives. Both Richard Alexander and Pat Mercer were popular because they distanced themselves from their party and put the constituency first. Fiona Jones was intensely disliked because she always put party before constituency. So far Jenrick appears to be a party man through and through and I am not sure how well that will sit in Newark.
Andy JS Blair won Newark in 1997, so Miliband needs to at least have a strong second to be on course for power if he cannot win. If the Tories win and Labour come in 3rd behind UKIP in that would be a disaster for him in key Midlands marginals
No, there were large boundary changes since 1997 which made the seat seemingly impregnably Tory, which after all is why they got over 50%. I know the seat in its former guise fairly well as it's close to Broxtowe and I nearly stood there in 1997 - it's predominantly rural/suburban plus the pretty county town. I wouldn't feel that winning would give me a huge boost in Broxtowe, or losing would be a huge setback - the seats are just too different.
Farage's comments do sound a bit as though he'll stand. It'll be high risk if he does - if he loses by a fair margin, it will take the gloss of whatever the Euros do. But if he wins that seat it'll send a shiver down every Tory spine in Britain. (Amused by Dawning's suggestion that Lab/Lib voters will rally behind the Tory.)
Had dinner with Adam Boulton and the Sky News team tonight, as they prepare for election coverage of potential winning PPCs - all off the record so I won't quote anything, but an interesting session and illuminating about the leader debates.
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
Well there is this.
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over.
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
You're behind the times. The claim now is that it is Labour which has most to fear from UKIP.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
Ironic from someone addicted to the Cameron brand of snake oil.
Yes, the brand which makes it absolutely clear that there are no quick fixes, that we need to get the deficit, welfare, and education back on track and that this will take years, that has achieved the best recovery from the worst position in the G7, that doesn't pretend everything is either the fault of the EU or nothing to do with the EU, that recognises the world and attitudes have changed in the last thirty years, and which above all is delivering what it said on the tin, both in terms of the party leadership (modernisation of the party, which is what he was elected to do), and putting Britain back on track after the blunders of the Labour years.
That you are rather more elegant eloquently than the other PBTs here doesn't mean you aren't addicted to the Cameron snake oil.
You seem to have forgotten to mention the UK's current account, productivity and home ownership trends among other things.
Perhaps you'd also explain how we can have a deficit when Cameron has been "paying down Britain's debts" ?
In reality the government gave up on the idea of getting Britain back on track when they decided to re-engineer another housing bubble - the quick fix of recreating the mindset of summer 2007.
But then Cameron, Osborne or indeed your own good self didn't notice anything wrong with the economy of summer 2007 did you.
The summer of ever rising house prices and is there honey still for tea ?
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
Well there is this.
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over.
Oh, I don't count that - not so much a prediction, more an olive leaf to the Labour Left from the triumphant Blairites. (And also a case of drawing the wrong conclusion from your own correct analysis.)
So does anyone disagree that Labour have no chance ?
But what will the media narrative become ?
If it becomes "Labour need to win to show they're on course for government" then EdM's got problems.
It it becomes "Labour can't win but they're vote will collapse to let in UKIP" then EdM's got problems. Not specifically in Newark but generally if former Labour wwc voters get even further encouragement to vote UKIP.
I'm surprised Avery's apostrophe police hasn't spotted the error.
"Had dinner with Adam Boulton and the Sky News team tonight, as they prepare for election coverage of potential winning PPCs - all off the record so I won't quote anything, but an interesting session and illuminating about the leader debates."
Maybe you could point Adam Boulton in the direction of my candidates' list if you see him again. I don't think anyone else is doing one.
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
I agree it is unlikely that UKIP would win in Newark but I doubt that would be because of Jenrick. Indeed he strikes me as a particlarly poor candidate for a constituency that has traditionally prefered more individually minded candidates - at least from the Conservatives. Both Richard Alexander and Pat Mercer were popular because they distanced themselves from their party and put the constituency first. Fiona Jones was intensely disliked because she always put party before constituency. So far Jenrick appears to be a party man through and through and I am not sure how well that will sit in Newark.
Richard
Why not put yourself forward as UKIP's candidate for Newark?
My only worry in making this suggestion is that Farage may not be a supportive of your independent thinking as your potential constituents!
A serious question and suggestion though.
A few reasons I would not consider it.
Firstly as you say I would not be able to support a considerable part of the UKIP agenda. I am a fairly strong opponent of all parties and primarily support UKIP because of their EU policy. I like some other aspects of their policies but could not support their socially conservative stance.
Secondly and most importantly on a personal level I could not afford it. I earn too much and spend too much to be an MP if I was going to do it fairly and squarely with no outside interests or extra income - which is the only way I would ever consider it.
Thirdly there is my total lack of respect for politicians. I was asked on a couple of occasions by Patrick Mercer to put my name forward to be a Tory local councillor in Newark and always refused quite openly on the grounds that I neither trust or like politicians and would not want to be one.
Finally I am not sure my past would stand up to the sort of scrutiny that comes with the territory.Nothing major that would get me into real trouble but probably enough to embarrass my family.
It is a bit of a cop out I suppose to simply sit on the sidelines and snipe and I would be quite willing to help out with ideas if I thought the front man deserved support but I could not be that front man.
Apart from China, you should worry about record margin debt on US markets, sentiment being bullish is off the charts quite literally (a very good reversal indicator with literally no bears left, world debt nearly 40% higher than it was in late 2007 amongst a whole host of other things.
On the UK economy, I think we will probably get another couple of quarters at least of fairly robust GDP growth, and no doubt Mr Osborne will crow if the UK economy in absolute terms is bigger than back in late 2007 / early 2008. However, UK population is roughly 2 million bigger than back then. Even if we got back there, then GDP per head would only be back to where it was in 2005 - I noticed that Balls on Channel 4 this evening was saying that, as he's clearly prepared for the day when output in absolute terms gets back to its pre-recession peak.
It still amazes me the importance attached to GDP these days, its such a flawed measure in so many ways, and just to confuse further, the ONS is making a large revision to the way its measured later this year, which is, you guessed it, going to increase GDP, and you know already which figures Osborne and Balls will quote!
And there is no mention of the Current Account deficit these days whatsoever. In the past 6 months its been running at an annualised rate of around 5.5% of GDP in deficit, worse than it was in 1989, the prior worst year in the past 30 years or so. Some 'balanced' economic recovery that Mr Osborne!
it takes gumption to keep trooping on and trying to pitch yourself as an informed political pundit when you've made so many spectacularly wrong predictions
Can you name some of the predictions that Hodges has made that have been spectacularly wrong? This is a genuine question. The fellow seems to take a lot of stick over predictions about events that haven't yet occurred.
Well there is this.
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over.
And he also claimed towards the end of 2010 that Ed would be ousted within a few months.
He also claimed Labour would never get any consistent poll leads in this parliament.
He also claimed Obama won the first debate of the 2012 election (you know, that debate which gave Romney a huge surge which almost won him the election).
He also claimed UKIP's performance in the Eastleigh by-election would be a one-off and that UKIP would immediately start fading.
He also claimed that Labour voting against Syria intervention was "the day Labour lost the election" (before it turned out the public were against Syria intervention and Ed's personal ratings took a big leap thanks to grateful 2010 LibDems).
He also claimed Clegg would wipe the floor with Farage in the debates.
We can't have another Eurozone crisis until AEP declares the current one over...
More seriously, it's worth remembering that of the five PIIGS, Ireland is now able to borrow in the markets for less than the UK, and it's debt-to-GDP will soon begin to fall - perhaps as soon as next quarter. Spain and Italy are only a few basis points cheaper than the UK (yields on 10 years are 3.0% for Spain and Italy, and 2.8% for the UK, Ireland is 2.5%). Greece is still a basket case, but at least 75% of the debt is now owned by various international bodies (the IMF, the EU, etc.), so there will be an inevitable "extend and pretend", perhaps converting all publicly owned debt to 50 year maturities with a 2% yield. (This is equivalent to wiping off 60% of the debt, without actually admitting it.) Portugal is also improving. Furthermore, Draghi is now 'allowed' to use QE, so the ability of the European authorities to avoid a debt crisis is improving.
Of course, there might be serious problems with Russia that would derail this. And the risk of a genuine downturn in China continues to grow. But, overall, the picture for real economy in most parts of the world is improving, albeit modestly.
I tend to agree with your caution on the US stock market: not because there are problems with the US economy, but simply that stocks are expensive there right now, and earnings growth has been driven by corporates taking on increasing piles of debt to buy back their own shares. Considering how recently the credit crisis was, I find this debt accumulation concerning, and it certainly means US companies are more levered (positively and negatively).
Comments
The officer then shuts the door, and "Miggo" swears he can hear "on you go driver" as he floors the throttle on the pig.
(They had learned how to dismount on the very next run)
Do you think there will be a tipping point. When Tory members start defecting on mass to UKIP?
His current job with Christies is an eye-opener. Not a typical cv for Christies, so he is likely to have something about him.
The whole Euracism charge is just as cowardly and pathetic from the political establishment too - a love of Europe is an entirely separate thing from paying homage to the EU - why can't the euro fanatasists not see that?!
Given his conduct the mutual loathing between him and Cameron seems to exemplify the latter's good judgement.
And why not? Farage is a better snake-oil salesman than Miliband, so it's logical enough that those who want to be sold snake-oil should transfer their allegiance.
Will look like he is just using the place as a publicity stunt with no regard for the constituents
If UKIP win the Euros, whoever they pick will have a great chance of winning
Farage different qualitiy as a speaker, funny, plague on all your houses stuff. Jokes about PPE students tripping from SPAD to MP to becoming MP then minister. Not impressed with quality of other SW List candidates - v mixed bag. Interesting evening due to lack of fisticuffs and catcalls.
Not sure if they have other speakers as energised as Niglet.
"Not a typical cv for Christies, so he is likely to have something about him."
Good school/family connections?
Toxic roach.
Nigel cannot risk that, he prefers to be the big fish in a small pond.
I don't buy the Farage standing in Newark story. This is simply too big a gamble
I would vote to stay in, probably, as I fear the consequences of leaving, and would like to believe a restructuring of the EU to remove many of the bad bits could take place, but the drivers of the EU accept not genuine criticism or accept any desire for change not in their favoured direction as valid, so it will never happen, alas.
The terrible attempts to smear UKIP just underline the point that these idiots in Westminster wouldn't know the real world if it bit them on the arse.. they all sound like smart alecs in the Student Union Bar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsey_and_Wood_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
I suspect not...
It would give us 15 years of power while UKIP wrestled and overtook the Tories. But then yes - we might be in a bit of trouble.
The Tories cannot win a majority.
Because they beg for attention.
Jenrick did get a Cambridge First but apart from that there is nothing else in his backstory which suggests he would become the "youngest director" of the company (an oft expressed claim mostly proved inaccurate).
So ability is probably the clue here.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100268864/the-political-ecology-is-changing-forever/
Rather good, I thought, and gives a believable reason for the groupthink attack on UKIP that is currently going on.
Describing her home town of Oldham as disintegrating because of “the immigrants”, she accused “the Muslims” of turning “many of the small areas of the town into ghettos”. She added: “Ethnic cleansing is going on in this country and its the english (sic) that are being diluted.”
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4076620.ece
He can only run frit so many times before putting up or shutting up.
Would it be unkind to ask how your stock market crash is coming along?
My guess is that Miliband and his electoral advisors have calculated that there aren't enough of these voters in the marginal seats that matter, and they're a declining segment anyway, but I still think it carries a very significant risk for them, and one that UKIP is increasingly moving into the vacuum to expose.
But what will the media narrative become ?
If it becomes "Labour need to win to show they're on course for government" then EdM's got problems.
It it becomes "Labour can't win but they're vote will collapse to let in UKIP" then EdM's got problems. Not specifically in Newark but generally if former Labour wwc voters get even further encouragement to vote UKIP.
Cuba accuses UK of being anti-capitalist over plain packaging plans
Communist state Cuba has complained that Britain is threatening free trade with plans to introduce plain packaging for cigarettes and cigar
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/cuba/10796980/Cuba-accuses-UK-of-being-anti-capitalist-over-plain-packaging-plans.html
http://theballotboxblog.com/blog/2013/9/26/deposits-at-elections-big-questions-for-small-parties.html
Absolutely brilliant and spot on. If Carswell stood in Hornchurch & Upminster I'd vote for him. Hope he defects to UKIP soon.
Peter Hitchens devotes a chapter in one of his books from about ten years ago, (The Abolition of Britain?) to lobby journalists being in the pockets of MP's who take them for expensive lunches in return for good copy. Had it not been for the internet no doubt they would have called the EU debates for Clegg.
"Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election.
What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the fact that the Reform party had picked “a completely unknown geography mistress, who lived in the town, who had lots of relations there”. He seemed to think that this was the key to their success, and it is this that makes me think he’ll take some persuading not to back a local candidate in Newark. Indeed, one of the things that Farage took away from his experience in Buckingham at the last election was how hard it is for an outsider to turn up a constituency and immediately lay claim to representing it in parliament. "
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/why-nigel-farage-might-not-stand-in-newark/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-nigel-farage-might-not-stand-in-newark&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
But there are tides in political events and UKIP's profile is in danger of falling off a cliff once the Euros are out of the way. They need this as much as the tories don't.
@DPJHodges: Big problem for Farage is even if he runs and wins, he's locked into a seat he'll lose 12 months later.
Apart from a few select US markets (which grab nearly all the attention!) making notional highs, not highs in real terms allowing for inflation, or in terms of real money (gold) - most European markets are off their peaks right now as a further divergence. And look at the markets in China and Russia, they are most firmly in bear market territory.
And when things finally do turn south, which I think is pretty imminent, it will be a sight to behold, just as the next 54 weeks in UK politics will be! Bring it on.
What a joker
In 2010 Jenrick came within 1600 votes off overturning an 8800 majority in Newcastle under Lyme. He seems a fairly formidable campaigner.
Does anyone know what his position on Europe/immigration is? His website seems to be down for revision.
I cannot see UKIP beating him, whoever they pick.
Lord knows it was hard to get rid of Galloway.
Are you around for the drinks on Friday?
In particular the one about Cameron 'not knowing how to listen'.
Labour could do poorly in the by-election here and comfortably win the GE. Individual constituencies and their electorates change over time favouring certain parties over others, you can't just make a blanket comparison with May 1st 1997.
2005 actual result: (previous boundaries)
Con 21,946
Lab 15,482
LD 7,276
Oth 992
Con maj 6,464
2005 notional result: (current boundaries)
Con 22,950
Lab 12,873
LD 8,354
Oth 1,267
Con maj 10,077
Difference: 3,613
Lab maj in 1997 was 3,016 so the Tories might have held the current seat in that year by about 500 votes.
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/
The bad blood between him and the Newton-Dunn's goes back a long way... no wonder The Sun's political editor ran a story to smear his Dad's nemesis
"Helmer delayed standing down, before it was announced on 2 March 2012 that he had defected from the Conservatives to the United Kingdom Independence Party.[2] He faced accusations of hypocrisy as he had demanded in November 2000, that MEP Bill Newton Dunn immediately resign as a result of his move from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.[11]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Helmer
As for the Lobby, I am amazed that it still exists. It must be thirty years since its corrupt nature was exposed in Yes Minister, more than a decade after the Campbell shennaigans were exposed yet it still goes on, and people still pay attention to the writings of the journalists that are part of that dreadful conspiracy. Newspapers have been screaming about press-freedom yet they freely accept the Lobby system. Beats me.
No need to exit from UK-quoted but internationally-focused companies like Rolls Royce, Unilever, GSK, Shell, BHP Billiton etc of course; indeed some of them would benefit from weak Sterling.
[This is not financial advice, do your own research, you might lose your shirt etc etc]
Why not put yourself forward as UKIP's candidate for Newark?
My only worry in making this suggestion is that Farage may not be a supportive of your independent thinking as your potential constituents!
A serious question and suggestion though.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/
To be laughed at or ignored.
Piers Corbyn? That old Trot!
"UKIP candidate for Central St Leonards claims "there's no such thing as a benign Muslim". BBC SE reports"
This seems to be the family business: http://www.charltonandjenrick.co.uk/ Founded in 1986 and now employing 120 and manufacturing on five sites.
I do not know Newark that well, but have been there on a number of occasions. It is not a radical and free thinking place, and the remainder of the Constituency is Nottingham commuter villages.
It will be interesting to see how the odds move, usually there is good money to be made betting against the kippers.
Farage's comments do sound a bit as though he'll stand. It'll be high risk if he does - if he loses by a fair margin, it will take the gloss of whatever the Euros do. But if he wins that seat it'll send a shiver down every Tory spine in Britain. (Amused by Dawning's suggestion that Lab/Lib voters will rally behind the Tory.)
Had dinner with Adam Boulton and the Sky News team tonight, as they prepare for election coverage of potential winning PPCs - all off the record so I won't quote anything, but an interesting session and illuminating about the leader debates.
Anyway, happy birthday MikeK!
You seem to have forgotten to mention the UK's current account, productivity and home ownership trends among other things.
Perhaps you'd also explain how we can have a deficit when Cameron has been "paying down Britain's debts" ?
In reality the government gave up on the idea of getting Britain back on track when they decided to re-engineer another housing bubble - the quick fix of recreating the mindset of summer 2007.
But then Cameron, Osborne or indeed your own good self didn't notice anything wrong with the economy of summer 2007 did you.
The summer of ever rising house prices and is there honey still for tea ?
Maybe you could point Adam Boulton in the direction of my candidates' list if you see him again. I don't think anyone else is doing one.
Firstly as you say I would not be able to support a considerable part of the UKIP agenda. I am a fairly strong opponent of all parties and primarily support UKIP because of their EU policy. I like some other aspects of their policies but could not support their socially conservative stance.
Secondly and most importantly on a personal level I could not afford it. I earn too much and spend too much to be an MP if I was going to do it fairly and squarely with no outside interests or extra income - which is the only way I would ever consider it.
Thirdly there is my total lack of respect for politicians. I was asked on a couple of occasions by Patrick Mercer to put my name forward to be a Tory local councillor in Newark and always refused quite openly on the grounds that I neither trust or like politicians and would not want to be one.
Finally I am not sure my past would stand up to the sort of scrutiny that comes with the territory.Nothing major that would get me into real trouble but probably enough to embarrass my family.
It is a bit of a cop out I suppose to simply sit on the sidelines and snipe and I would be quite willing to help out with ideas if I thought the front man deserved support but I could not be that front man.
Apart from China, you should worry about record margin debt on US markets, sentiment being bullish is off the charts quite literally (a very good reversal indicator with literally no bears left, world debt nearly 40% higher than it was in late 2007 amongst a whole host of other things.
On the UK economy, I think we will probably get another couple of quarters at least of fairly robust GDP growth, and no doubt Mr Osborne will crow if the UK economy in absolute terms is bigger than back in late 2007 / early 2008. However, UK population is roughly 2 million bigger than back then. Even if we got back there, then GDP per head would only be back to where it was in 2005 - I noticed that Balls on Channel 4 this evening was saying that, as he's clearly prepared for the day when output in absolute terms gets back to its pre-recession peak.
It still amazes me the importance attached to GDP these days, its such a flawed measure in so many ways, and just to confuse further, the ONS is making a large revision to the way its measured later this year, which is, you guessed it, going to increase GDP, and you know already which figures Osborne and Balls will quote!
And there is no mention of the Current Account deficit these days whatsoever. In the past 6 months its been running at an annualised rate of around 5.5% of GDP in deficit, worse than it was in 1989, the prior worst year in the past 30 years or so. Some 'balanced' economic recovery that Mr Osborne!
He also claimed Labour would never get any consistent poll leads in this parliament.
He also claimed Obama won the first debate of the 2012 election (you know, that debate which gave Romney a huge surge which almost won him the election).
He also claimed UKIP's performance in the Eastleigh by-election would be a one-off and that UKIP would immediately start fading.
He also claimed that Labour voting against Syria intervention was "the day Labour lost the election" (before it turned out the public were against Syria intervention and Ed's personal ratings took a big leap thanks to grateful 2010 LibDems).
He also claimed Clegg would wipe the floor with Farage in the debates.
Scottish independence's surge in the polls can also be traced almost exactly to the day when Dan wrote the following article: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100258639/what-will-the-eurosceptics-and-scottish-nationalists-do-once-theyve-been-defeated/
We can't have another Eurozone crisis until AEP declares the current one over...
More seriously, it's worth remembering that of the five PIIGS, Ireland is now able to borrow in the markets for less than the UK, and it's debt-to-GDP will soon begin to fall - perhaps as soon as next quarter. Spain and Italy are only a few basis points cheaper than the UK (yields on 10 years are 3.0% for Spain and Italy, and 2.8% for the UK, Ireland is 2.5%). Greece is still a basket case, but at least 75% of the debt is now owned by various international bodies (the IMF, the EU, etc.), so there will be an inevitable "extend and pretend", perhaps converting all publicly owned debt to 50 year maturities with a 2% yield. (This is equivalent to wiping off 60% of the debt, without actually admitting it.) Portugal is also improving. Furthermore, Draghi is now 'allowed' to use QE, so the ability of the European authorities to avoid a debt crisis is improving.
Of course, there might be serious problems with Russia that would derail this. And the risk of a genuine downturn in China continues to grow. But, overall, the picture for real economy in most parts of the world is improving, albeit modestly.
I tend to agree with your caution on the US stock market: not because there are problems with the US economy, but simply that stocks are expensive there right now, and earnings growth has been driven by corporates taking on increasing piles of debt to buy back their own shares. Considering how recently the credit crisis was, I find this debt accumulation concerning, and it certainly means US companies are more levered (positively and negatively).
Farage should chicken out.