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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer – Will Farage stand
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer – Will Farage stand?
It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 came into force on April 6th and now there is a minimum of 25 days excluding weekends/bank holidays between the writ being moved and the by election being held .
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The chairman of Newark Conservative Association has put out a statement confirming that Robert Jenrick will be their by election candidate.
Aww... Poor old Boris.
Still, now the pressure is on Farage.
Has Boris already bottled it? Looks as if the Tories are fielding a complete unknown according to Twitter.
Cameron stepped in perhaps to block the man he loathes?
Ed's crowning glory of the 2010-2015 Parliament?
If he slays the farage dragon he will walk the next tory leadership contest.
That way the result gets overshadowed whatever happens.
Eastern backwater rural seat in fruit picking country. If the Kippers can't win here, they can't win anywhere.
Its the only way to unite the right.
@CharlotteV @GuidoFawkes @c4news @MichaelLCrick @RobertJenrick just read his timeline he's as dull as dishwater! :-) can I stand instead?
Must be very tempting indeed for Farage then.
"Are you frit or a carpetbagger"?
WTF?
At least Galloway gets in their and street fights.
He needs to go and go hard.
"Eastern backwater rural seat in fruit picking country. If the Kippers can't win here, they can't win anywhere."
Wrong on both counts. It's a big town on the A1. You're thinking of the seats to the East, where his chances would be higher.
http://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates/Jenrick_Robert.aspx
Farage won't stand.
White British: 93%
White Other: 4%
Asian: 1.2%
Black: 0.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 67%
Hindu: 0.2%
Jewish: 0.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Sikh: 0.1%
Other: 32%
Owned: 31%
Own/Mort: 43%
Local Auth: 8%
House Ass: 3%
Private: 13%
Other: 2%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
They say you know your getting old when doctors and police officers start looking younger than you, but what does it mean when MP's start looking younger than you? :O
Its the wrong sort of area for them and increasingly so all the time.
But its possible that UKIP might be able to squeeze the Labour vote.
Take a look at what happened to the Labour vote in byelections during the John Smith leadership to see that being in opposition doesn't mean your vote can't fall hard.
Stuck in an update about the already selected Tory candidate for Newark
If you want to lose your money bookies offering 100/1 that both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage stand in The Newark by-election...
I haven't heard him this excited since I rang him to tell him Chris Huhne had pleaded guilty.
As for a complete unknown: good on them. There are too many 'knowns' parachuted into seats. Ed Miliband being one. Jenrick's seems interesting; it seems he has a manufacturing background, then went to work for Christies. In other words, lots of life outside politics. He stood in another seat in 2010, came second with a greater than average swing.
On the other hand, the Labour PPC, Michael Payne, is at least local. But he also seems a little uninspiring.
http://michaelpayne.org.uk/about-me/
Does anyone have more background on them than their websites?
P.s. I didn't know it stretched as far as Bingham, which I happen to know rather well. I also hadn't realised the unfortunate Fiona Jones preceded Mercer in that seat. Let's hope third time lucky ...
Parties regularly change their candidate for by elections. So that doesn't mean much. Who did UKIP select for Wythenshawe and Sale...
The Tories already had a candidate in place. The local association wouldn't have accepted him being pushed aside to make way for someone else. If they'd been forced to do so, half the association would have defected to UKIP probably.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1983/2/schedule/1
FPT: Mr. K, hope you have a splendid day tomorrow. Antigonus Monopthalmus was over 80 when he contested the Battle of Ipsus, you know.
If Farage does stand in Newark he will be on our screens for the whole bloody summer. Someone talk him out of it please.
Amusing but a crucial point is made. Following the May local and EU elections Farage and the kippers will be hard pushed indeed to get any screen time as the focus rapidly moves elsewhere (save for the hubbub caused by Eurosceptic tory MPs who will inevitably be running about like headless chickens just like after last May) A Farage candidacy could keep the 'big mo' with them and help prevent this.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The pertinent part being the kipper dip after last May. IF Farage doesn't stand and that dip is pronounced, with the kippers struggling to get heard at all as the GE looms, then that might just come back to haunt him. Of course it's theoretically possible someone other than Farage could win for the kippers but he would seem to be their best chance for maximum publicity and maximum activist support.
UKIP can look at the European election results for the Newark & Sherwood council area before deciding who would be the best candidate, unless the by-election is held very quickly.
Imagine how much damage he could do to Cameron in the commons... Get a few Tory MPs to defect and you are away......
If UKIP can prove they can win a by-election, that it need not be a wasted vote to vote for UKIP, that could make a huge difference to how well the party holds up in 2015 (and thus whether Ed M gets a small majority or a massive majority), and if Farage does not think his presence would be a negative, he really should stand and go for it, because even a small rise thanks to a personal vote for him could swing.
If UKIP have won the Euros then even a defeat in a by-election won't derail them, and he can afford the hit to his own image. If they have lost the Euros to what will be surprise to many when the ground has never been so fertile for the party, then also losing the by-election might be more problematic for him, but if he thinks they will win the Euros, not much to lose in Newark.
"Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 51m
Labour: "Will fight Newark but boundary changes since Labour last won. Tories 30 points ahead in 2010 and twice Lab's vote in 2013 councils"
twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/461209295406006275
Labour's problem is that they won in 1997 (and it was a safe Labour seat before 1979) and so the 'political experts' in the media will be saying that a Labour gain there is a possibility.
Whereas we know that boundary, demographic and political changes make that very unlikely.
UKIP would also know at least one place where to funnel their efforts, which given they are otherwise quite spread out, with it difficult to predict where exactly they might surge the most (example: two fairly similar counties, Hampshire and Wiltshire, had elections in 2013, but UKIP got 10 seats out of 78 in one, and 1 out of 98 in the other), would be handy to know.
Of The Invincibles vintage.
The maximum bet on UKIP at 2/1 seems to be £25 which is what I've taken.
For Nige he can't afford the risk that he loses. For Boris it's too far from the centre.
Big brave Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 . NOT. Just tried to bet on the Newark by-election & all they would let me put on was £12.50
Carlo Ancelotti = Lysimachus
Real Madrid are leading 3 nil against Bavarian München.
It's a gamble so this would seem to be the correct place to discuss it.
"Can you help me please get a message to the site moderators. I have been trying to post for the last day or so and I have been unable to. I am apparently signed in and all is well but when I press send the message just disappears."
Thanks in advance.
(To the person in question: hope this helps).
Positives: it will result in a lot of media attention, he will probably win, if he doesn't stand it looks like "he's bottling it", there's probably a Farage benefit of 5-6% over the natural Kipper vote
Negatives: if he loses it won't look good - if Nigel stands he has to win, Newark will be a lot harder to hold in 2015 than some of the East of London seats will be to win
http://www.williamhill.com/en/nui/free-bet/?var3=en/nui/free-bet/#http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/addtoslip?action=BuildSlip&sel=298012181&price=y&ew=n&url=http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en/betting/e/4404307/UKIP-To-Win-A-Parliamentary-By-Election-Before-The-General-Election
If he ever wants to pull the trigger, that is...
I thought that was the bet myself off the top of my head