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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard to stop winning the nomination
This post from @Nigelb sums it up:
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Back prices of them all adds to 89.25%, massive under-round.
Someone has to win this, it’s not like boxing where they engineer a draw and everyone gets to make a fortune doing it all over again next year!
Then they need Obama to endorse, or at least do a convincing a "Piss off Bloomberg" speech.
I love @NigelB's analogy, you can arrange the pieces to make it work but it needs all these rivals to agree, it's all looking a bit Sylvia Hermon.
Edit: that one wasn’t either!
Greatest boxing performance in UK history
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1231141632365326336?s=20
As much as we would all want to see it, Fury v Joshua doesn’t quite have the appeal to 2m Americans willing to pay $85 each to watch. They’d need to do it at Wembley Stadium and sell 100k tickets.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/22/bernie-sanders-nevada-2020-election-116762
...voters who decided in the days following the debate were roughly divided between supporting Sanders (24%), Pete Buttigieg (21%), Warren (21%), and Biden (19%)...
Sanders’ crushing win was clearly based on his early and persistent work in the state.
Candidate BF price
Sanders 1.93
Bloomberg 5.1
Buttigeig 13
Biden 16
Clinton H 55
Warren 85
Klobuchar 360
Obama M 210
Backers must be wondering when her surge might arrive
Sanders has now won all three states contested and this one by a huge margin.
Got this one completely wrong in every regard.
But still going to be very tough for him to get a majority of delegates. On the other hand, if he clearly has the most delegates, it's going to look really bad for the democrats to pick someone else at the convention.
She's Plan B.
I am expecting a market over reaction when Biden win in SC.
Fury is seriously at the top of his game now though, he’s sorted his life out and found his (high) fighting weight. I can’t see anyone else getting in his way for quite a while.
Do you "look really bad" and give your party a chance of toppling Trump? Or let Sanders get pummelled - long with a whole bunch of Congressmen?
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=19
Cricket, on the other hand...
I enjoyed watching the Thai women's team yesterday; excellent fielding.
Looks like the UK won't be the only country to have a choice of least worst at an election.
If Lawrence keeps achieving like this, you may not get a chance to see him much at home.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
I dont even have the comfort of herding either with my prediction. I didn't even think Fury would win on decision.
Shame to see the Dems infected by the same misapprehension as UK Labour.
https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1231192177595895808?s=20
Shadsy had the order as KS/LN/RLB at 2/1 last night and LN/KS/RLB at 20/1
I think the first is reasonable value, but had the price of a pint on the latter.
He needs at least one term as a junior senator first, so he's not so wet behind the ears.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.
Not a surprise.
But what a disaster. Four more years of Trump.
Well I couldn't have called the fight more wrong.
Fury had his plan just like he told us he had and he executed it perfectly. Where did Wilder disappear to? Either he was ****-scared or something was wrong with him but in any case, with 20:20 hindsight I should have realised that after a draw when one fighter says he is going to do exactly the same thing and the other fighter says he is changing it up then that was important and so it proved.
Hands up. Unlike Wilder.
Probably doesn't matter if some fish Californians and New Yorkers are turned off; it's winning the states that counts.
Visited Gothenburg, headed to Haga then on to Botanic Gardens, which were well worth the effort, plenty of insect eating pitcher plants amongst other delights. Downside was not going to the Volvo Museum next to the mooring berth.
@stodge Passage to Kotor was quite extraordinary, listening to birdsong as the ship passed slowly through the narrows. Enjoyed the walk up to St John's Fortress.
I went looking for an example to illustrate this, and here it is. In the 2017 French elections 55% of votes in the first round weren't for Macron or Le Pen. He won 77% of that vote, which still means that Le Pen won over a fifth of it despite being pretty extremely polarising.
Sanders won't have such a strong cordon sanitere around him, it's entirely plausible he wins 70% of the Warren vote and 35% of everyone else's, and then there's his delegate lead from before the moderate vote is down to one person.
And as if that were not news enough, Tyson Fury, the Gypsy King - best performance by a British boxer ever?
https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1231305643929329665?s=19
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Sanders VP pick will be interesting, there is a significant greater chance actuarily of taking the top job than most cycles. I don't see Bernie as someone who would want to balance the ticket.
Warren has a plan, and could be useful as VP in getting things passed in the Senate. I do wonder if any of the squad would step up. Of these Pressley seems the most likely, AOC being too young. Not on the BFX market as yet though.
Adjusting his price to make the market up to 100% puts him at 1.59 rather than 1.93
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
With 2 parties having an interregnum, the Tories seem to be the beneficiaries.
In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.
“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”
I know she was being asked who she'd like as her Number 2. But her response suggests she might be up for being VP herself. That would double down on the "change" message. But I think Sanders might be better off with Klobouchar, giving mid-West, moderate and gender balance.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.