politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard to stop winning the nomination
This post from @Nigelb sums it up:
Comments
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Firsty Reverse Ferret?0
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Eight layable co tenders now on Betfair, including the two former First Ladies.
Back prices of them all adds to 89.25%, massive under-round.
Someone has to win this, it’s not like boxing where they engineer a draw and everyone gets to make a fortune doing it all over again next year!0 -
Wilder down!0
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BoxingWow, Wilder on the floor in the third. That wasn’t in the script. Fury in to 1.25 to win the fight.0
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Best boxing I've ever seen by a UK heavyweight0
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They need Biden to perform strongly in SC and Buttigieg and Baemy to fade. Biden's the only one who's got what it takes to make the second guy an attractive VP offer, namely a low remaining life expectancy.
Then they need Obama to endorse, or at least do a convincing a "Piss off Bloomberg" speech.
I love @NigelB's analogy, you can arrange the pieces to make it work but it needs all these rivals to agree, it's all looking a bit Sylvia Hermon.1 -
Bayless is a horrendous ref0
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Wilder looks broken to me1
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Wilder’s barely moved off the ropes for the last two rounds, looking very tired now. But we know he’s got that one punch in him0
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So when do we get Fury v Joshua?1
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Well that wasn’t in the script. What a champ, Tyson Fury!0
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Correct stoppage, Wilder was taking an absolute hiding0
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Yeah, he was watching him really closely after he went down. Half a dozen big hits without reply, with a cut lip and a cut ear, it was only a matter of time before ref stepped in. Announcer suggested a towel got thrown, but I didn’t see one.tyson said:
The referee was watching Wilder since round 3- and he was going to step in at some pointPulpstar said:Correct stoppage, Wilder was taking an absolute hiding
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Wilder has nowhere to go.......not with Fury around- he'll never get into a ring with him again0
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Towel went inQSandpit said:
Yeah, he was watching him really closely after he went down. Half a dozen big hits without reply, with a cut lip and a cut ear, it was only a matter of time before ref stepped in. Announcer suggested a towel got thrown, but I didn’t see one.tyson said:
The referee was watching Wilder since round 3- and he was going to step in at some pointPulpstar said:Correct stoppage, Wilder was taking an absolute hiding
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Fury should stick to boxing.1
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No point in a third, fight wasn't particularly close0
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Money talks though.Pulpstar said:No point in a third, fight wasn't particularly close
As much as we would all want to see it, Fury v Joshua doesn’t quite have the appeal to 2m Americans willing to pay $85 each to watch. They’d need to do it at Wembley Stadium and sell 100k tickets.0 -
I'm not sure the betting markets are appreciating the scale of this Sanders win, 1.93 looks like value right now0
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Probably doesn’t matter much now, but interesting nonetheless:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/22/bernie-sanders-nevada-2020-election-116762
...voters who decided in the days following the debate were roughly divided between supporting Sanders (24%), Pete Buttigieg (21%), Warren (21%), and Biden (19%)...
Sanders’ crushing win was clearly based on his early and persistent work in the state.0 -
Latest back prices for the eight layable candidates. I make the sum an 89.1% chance, so in theory they’re all great value at this point.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure the betting markets are appreciating the scale of this Sanders win, 1.93 looks like value right now
Candidate BF price
Sanders 1.93
Bloomberg 5.1
Buttigeig 13
Biden 16
Clinton H 55
Warren 85
Klobuchar 360
Obama M 2100 -
We've been here before. Let's wait and see what happens on Super Tuesday. At this stage Sanders is still not a shoo-in for the nomination.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure the betting markets are appreciating the scale of this Sanders win, 1.93 looks like value right now
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Another election with zero votes for Hillary Clinton !
Backers must be wondering when her surge might arrive0 -
Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.0
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At what point in the process have we "been here before" ?Mysticrose said:
We've been here before. Let's wait and see what happens on Super Tuesday. At this stage Sanders is still not a shoo-in for the nomination.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure the betting markets are appreciating the scale of this Sanders win, 1.93 looks like value right now
Sanders has now won all three states contested and this one by a huge margin.0 -
Why is Warren in Seattle, Washington isn't a ST state ?!0
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TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
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Buttigieg campaign will be swamped in the bayous of South Carolina I think.1
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Warren not dropping out then0
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Not a sport I bet on much (except on rare occasions of free money like Mayweather vs McGregor) but my predictive skill for the big fights, until now, has been pretty much spot on.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Got this one completely wrong in every regard.0 -
Coming round to the idea Sanders is value. Even against a more unified moderate field, he is going to win a lot of states.
But still going to be very tough for him to get a majority of delegates. On the other hand, if he clearly has the most delegates, it's going to look really bad for the democrats to pick someone else at the convention.0 -
She won't drop out until she runs out of cash.Pulpstar said:Warren not dropping out then
She's Plan B.0 -
I've reversed my position on Sanders and gone back in deep on Bloomberg.Pulpstar said:
At what point in the process have we "been here before" ?Mysticrose said:
We've been here before. Let's wait and see what happens on Super Tuesday. At this stage Sanders is still not a shoo-in for the nomination.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure the betting markets are appreciating the scale of this Sanders win, 1.93 looks like value right now
Sanders has now won all three states contested and this one by a huge margin.0 -
Biden can come back in SC off the back of this, Buttigieg's black voter numbers are going to bury him there0
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Whilst still by biggest green I have moved some money around.Casino_Royale said:
She won't drop out until she runs out of cash.Pulpstar said:Warren not dropping out then
She's Plan B.
I am expecting a market over reaction when Biden win in SC.1 -
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
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To be fair, not a lot of people outside the Fury camp thought Wilder was going to get knocked out. Most of the commentators beforehand agreed with you, that it was going to be either a Wilder knockout or Fury on a decision.Alistair said:
Not a sport I bet on much (except on rare occasions of free money like Mayweather vs McGregor) but my predictive skill for the big fights, until now, has been pretty much spot on.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Got this one completely wrong in every regard.
Fury is seriously at the top of his game now though, he’s sorted his life out and found his (high) fighting weight. I can’t see anyone else getting in his way for quite a while.0 -
But worse if the polling looks terminal for Bernie v Trump. Trump is going to lay into Sanders like a one-man Un-American Activities committee.rkrkrk said:Coming round to the idea Sanders is value. Even against a more unified moderate field, he is going to win a lot of states.
But still going to be very tough for him to get a majority of delegates. On the other hand, if he clearly has the most delegates, it's going to look really bad for the democrats to pick someone else at the convention.
Do you "look really bad" and give your party a chance of toppling Trump? Or let Sanders get pummelled - long with a whole bunch of Congressmen?1 -
ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Debatable if rounders is a real sportydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
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In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=190 -
Not debateable, Malc. Even I can play rounders, so it’s not a sport.malcolmg said:ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Debatable if rounders is a real sportydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Cricket, on the other hand...0 -
It's to be hoped that Lawrence can fulfil his promise; was felt to have rather under-achieved at home last season.ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
I enjoyed watching the Thai women's team yesterday; excellent fielding.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Looks like the UK won't be the only country to have a choice of least worst at an election.1 -
Now that’s what I call ‘searching for the positives...’OldKingCole said:
It's to be hoped that Lawrence can fulfil his promise; was felt to have rather under-achieved at home last season.ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
I enjoyed watching the Thai women's team yesterday; excellent fielding.
If Lawrence keeps achieving like this, you may not get a chance to see him much at home.0 -
A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.3 -
Who the hell would want to step in a ring with Fury now?Sandpit said:
To be fair, not a lot of people outside the Fury camp thought Wilder was going to get knocked out. Most of the commentators beforehand agreed with you, that it was going to be either a Wilder knockout or Fury on a decision.Alistair said:
Not a sport I bet on much (except on rare occasions of free money like Mayweather vs McGregor) but my predictive skill for the big fights, until now, has been pretty much spot on.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Got this one completely wrong in every regard.
Fury is seriously at the top of his game now though, he’s sorted his life out and found his (high) fighting weight. I can’t see anyone else getting in his way for quite a while.
I dont even have the comfort of herding either with my prediction. I didn't even think Fury would win on decision.0 -
Are there any actual figures, as opposed to anonymous insider reports? I think Starmer is well ahead, but I don't think Nandy is doing that well, as witnessed by the small number of CLPs nominating her. Her main chance is the new members, but my perception is that Starmer is winning big in that group. RLB will I think get a respectable 2nd place - something like Starmer 52, RLB 30, Nandy 18 feels about right.Casino_Royale said:In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=190 -
Klob and Pete look done to me. I would place Biden ahead of them. Warren is probably the only viable stop Sanders candidate now.
Shame to see the Dems infected by the same misapprehension as UK Labour.0 -
RLB has been surprisingly weak. Has done nothing to establish herself as a candidate for leader in her own right. Whereas Nandy has clear positions and Starmer is pumping out the gravitas, RLB is simply saying I am Corbyn 2. Sequels are rarely any good, especially when the original marketed himself as uniquely irreplaceable. Her campaign undermines itself.NickPalmer said:
Are there any actual figures, as opposed to anonymous insider reports? I think Starmer is well ahead, but I don't think Nandy is doing that well, as witnessed by the small number of CLPs nominating her. Her main chance is the new members, but my perception is that Starmer is winning big in that group. RLB will I think get a respectable 2nd place - something like Starmer 52, RLB 30, Nandy 18 feels about right.Casino_Royale said:In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=190 -
F1: reading elsewhere that the Mercedes altered tyre angles might prolong tyre longevity. If so, could be a rather massive advantage.1
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Boot no longer has the edge edge.Jonathan said:Klob and Pete look done to me. I would place Biden ahead of them. Warren is probably the only viable stop Sanders candidate now.
Shame to see the Dems infected by the same misapprehension as UK Labour.1 -
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
Voters in general would put RLB third (or fourth if Lady Nugee was still standing):NickPalmer said:
Are there any actual figures, as opposed to anonymous insider reports? I think Starmer is well ahead, but I don't think Nandy is doing that well, as witnessed by the small number of CLPs nominating her. Her main chance is the new members, but my perception is that Starmer is winning big in that group. RLB will I think get a respectable 2nd place - something like Starmer 52, RLB 30, Nandy 18 feels about right.Casino_Royale said:In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=19
https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1231192177595895808?s=201 -
Not yet.NickPalmer said:
Are there any actual figures, as opposed to anonymous insider reports? I think Starmer is well ahead, but I don't think Nandy is doing that well, as witnessed by the small number of CLPs nominating her. Her main chance is the new members, but my perception is that Starmer is winning big in that group. RLB will I think get a respectable 2nd place - something like Starmer 52, RLB 30, Nandy 18 feels about right.Casino_Royale said:In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=190 -
This may be one of the bravest, but not wrong, posts in the history of this site.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
If RLB does come third, then it is hard to see many of her votes transferring to KS. I suspect LN will pick up most.Jonathan said:
RLB has been surprisingly weak. Has done nothing to establish herself as a candidate for leader in her own right. Whereas Nandy has clear positions and Starmer is pumping out the gravitas, RLB is simply saying I am Corbyn 2. Sequels are rarely any good, especially when the original marketed himself as uniquely irreplaceable. Her campaign undermines itself.NickPalmer said:
Are there any actual figures, as opposed to anonymous insider reports? I think Starmer is well ahead, but I don't think Nandy is doing that well, as witnessed by the small number of CLPs nominating her. Her main chance is the new members, but my perception is that Starmer is winning big in that group. RLB will I think get a respectable 2nd place - something like Starmer 52, RLB 30, Nandy 18 feels about right.Casino_Royale said:In other news, RLB looks finished. If I didn't need the liquidity for Super Tuesday I'd now lay her some more instead:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1231347570716356608?s=19
Shadsy had the order as KS/LN/RLB at 2/1 last night and LN/KS/RLB at 20/1
I think the first is reasonable value, but had the price of a pint on the latter.0 -
Doesn't he want to ban all private health insurance or something though?Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
It’s an astonishingly innovative car, given that it’s the last year of this formula. Apart from RP and their “Pink Mercedes”, everyone else has very much turned up with an evolution of their 2019 effort.Morris_Dancer said:F1: reading elsewhere that the Mercedes altered tyre angles might prolong tyre longevity. If so, could be a rather massive advantage.
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I think it's just eight years too early for Booty-Judge.
He needs at least one term as a junior senator first, so he's not so wet behind the ears.2 -
Mr. Sandpit, wonder if that's a mistake. Getting a head start with a new rule set is pretty useful, and if they've split too much attention to 2020 that could be an error.0
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Agree with Jonathan on this one- pete and klob are done while Biden still at least has a chance to get back into it.0
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You've got to finish off with "and I got on Sanders at 10/1" to get a gold star for a post like this.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.0 -
Waking up to the news.
Not a surprise.
But what a disaster. Four more years of Trump.0 -
#feel the burn...Casino_Royale said:
You've got to finish off with "and I got on Sanders at 10/1" to get a gold star for a post like this.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.0 -
Morning team
Well I couldn't have called the fight more wrong.
Fury had his plan just like he told us he had and he executed it perfectly. Where did Wilder disappear to? Either he was ****-scared or something was wrong with him but in any case, with 20:20 hindsight I should have realised that after a draw when one fighter says he is going to do exactly the same thing and the other fighter says he is changing it up then that was important and so it proved.
Hands up. Unlike Wilder.0 -
'It's Michigan-friendly pitch'. QuiteKevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
Probably doesn't matter if some fish Californians and New Yorkers are turned off; it's winning the states that counts.0 -
@Stuart_Dickson
Visited Gothenburg, headed to Haga then on to Botanic Gardens, which were well worth the effort, plenty of insect eating pitcher plants amongst other delights. Downside was not going to the Volvo Museum next to the mooring berth.
@stodge Passage to Kotor was quite extraordinary, listening to birdsong as the ship passed slowly through the narrows. Enjoyed the walk up to St John's Fortress.0 -
I got Sanders at 9.4 (for Dem nominee) and have a modest lay on Trump. I'm green on Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Biden, red on everyone else.Casino_Royale said:
You've got to finish off with "and I got on Sanders at 10/1" to get a gold star for a post like this.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.0 -
I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens? I think there is an assumption that the moderate vote will coalesce behind his opponent, but there's no reason to believe he won't get a good minority of drop-outs votes (and H2H polls actively suggest he will).
I went looking for an example to illustrate this, and here it is. In the 2017 French elections 55% of votes in the first round weren't for Macron or Le Pen. He won 77% of that vote, which still means that Le Pen won over a fifth of it despite being pretty extremely polarising.
Sanders won't have such a strong cordon sanitere around him, it's entirely plausible he wins 70% of the Warren vote and 35% of everyone else's, and then there's his delegate lead from before the moderate vote is down to one person.2 -
Hard to call on 2nd prefs, but I'd have thought that RLB backers would either have no second preference ("nobody but the One True Heir will do") or will go for Starmer, who is making an effort to sound left-wing. I'm still not sure what Nandy's pitch is, but I've not noticed it as being especially leftish.Foxy said:
If RLB does come third, then it is hard to see many of her votes transferring to KS. I suspect LN will pick up most.
Shadsy had the order as KS/LN/RLB at 2/1 last night and LN/KS/RLB at 20/1
I think the first is reasonable value, but had the price of a pint on the latter.1 -
That'll do! Fair enough!!NickPalmer said:
I got Sanders at 9.4 (for Dem nominee) and have a modest lay on Trump. I'm green on Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Biden, red on everyone else.Casino_Royale said:
You've got to finish off with "and I got on Sanders at 10/1" to get a gold star for a post like this.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.0 -
I’m not sure they’re exactly short of resources, with over a thousand people at Brackley they can afford to have one team on 2020 and another on 2021. They also finished development early on the 2019 car, as it was clear by the summer they were going to win the title.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, wonder if that's a mistake. Getting a head start with a new rule set is pretty useful, and if they've split too much attention to 2020 that could be an error.
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Amazing win for Our Hero in Nevada!
And as if that were not news enough, Tyson Fury, the Gypsy King - best performance by a British boxer ever?1 -
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.0 -
#feel the burn right back at you....NickPalmer said:
I got Sanders at 9.4 (for Dem nominee) and have a modest lay on Trump. I'm green on Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Biden, red on everyone else.Casino_Royale said:
You've got to finish off with "and I got on Sanders at 10/1" to get a gold star for a post like this.
Easy to criticise and say 'told you so' when you haven't put any of your own money at risk.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, fair point on 2019. Red Bull and Ferrari will be very keen to be top dog come 2021, though.0
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Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
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A thread by the previous SNP MSP for the seatCarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1231305643929329665?s=190 -
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.2 -
Certainly my own punts on US politics are not very good, despite my 5 years there as a teenager, and fairly regular visits since. With that caveat...NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
Sanders VP pick will be interesting, there is a significant greater chance actuarily of taking the top job than most cycles. I don't see Bernie as someone who would want to balance the ticket.
Warren has a plan, and could be useful as VP in getting things passed in the Senate. I do wonder if any of the squad would step up. Of these Pressley seems the most likely, AOC being too young. Not on the BFX market as yet though.
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Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Adjusting his price to make the market up to 100% puts him at 1.59 rather than 1.931 -
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.0 -
Why are they fighting over Edinburgh Central. Surely Renfrewshire North and West would be a safer bet for one of them?ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.0 -
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1231503965994438657
With 2 parties having an interregnum, the Tories seem to be the beneficiaries.0 -
Interesting exchange with Warren:
In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.
“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”
I know she was being asked who she'd like as her Number 2. But her response suggests she might be up for being VP herself. That would double down on the "change" message. But I think Sanders might be better off with Klobouchar, giving mid-West, moderate and gender balance.0 -
I think accusations of hypocrisy are a particularly British obsession, Americans are less bothered.ydoethur said:
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.0 -
Assuming the Green doesn't stand again Ed Central is a shoo in for the SNP.No_Offence_Alan said:
Why are they fighting over Edinburgh Central. Surely Renfrewshire North and West would be a safer bet for one of them?ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0
