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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early voting and a split field mean Sanders should be clear od

Inevitably, all eyes on the race for the Democrat nomination are trained today on Nevada, which today becomes the third state to vote in the contest. Except it doesn’t.
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"Barring a drastic change in the race, Bernie Sanders is going to be the presumptive Democratic nominee 11 days from now."
Digging into the wider picture of COVID-19, from the John Hopkins dashboard:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
For all cases outside mainland China:
No cases yet in south America or central America
Africa - I case in Egypt (recovered); no other cases in the continent
Other countries: no fatalities
Finland - 1 case (recovered)
Nepal- 1 case (recovered)
Sri Lanka - 1 case (recovered)
Cambodia - 1 case (recovered)
Belgium - 1 case (recovered)
Spain - 2 cases (both recovered)
Russia - 2 cases (both recovered)
India - 3 cases (all recovered)
UK - 9 cases (8 recovered, no deaths)
Macau - 10 cases (6 recovered, no deaths)
Germany - 16 cases (14 recovered to date, no deaths)
Vietnam - 16 cases (14 recovered to date, no deaths)
Australia - 19 cases (11 recovered, no deaths)
Malaysia - 22 cases (15 recovered, no deaths)
US - 35 cases (5 recovered, no deaths)
Thailand - 35 cases (17 recovered, no deaths)
Singapore - 68 cases (37 recovered, no deaths)
But then.....
Israel - 1 case (no further news)
Lebanon - 1 case (no further news)
Philippines - 3 cases (1 recovered, 1 death)
Canada - 9 cases (3 recovered, no deaths)
UAE - 9 cases (4 recovered, no deaths)
France - 12 cases (4 recovered, 1 death)
Iran - 16 cases (none yet recovered, 4 deaths)
Italy - 20 cases (0 recovered, 1 death)
Taiwan - 26 cases (2 recovered, 1 death)
Hong Kong - 68 cases (6 recovered, 2 deaths)
Japan - 105 cases (22 recovered, 1 death)
South Korea - 204 cases (16 recovered, 2 deaths)
The story is mostly that it is well contained, has high recovery levels where found and very few fatalities. However, Japan and South Korea (and to an extent Iran, Hong Kong and Italy) are a concern.
Incidentally, in among SeanT going off on one (I was amused to see a man who swears Cummings is intelligent accuses others of being deluded) there was a discussion about the most successful electoral record of any Prime Minister or party leader. Couple of additions;
1) After the Labour leadership was established in 1922 (previously, MPs took it in turns to act as chairman for a year) three permanent Labour leaders have never lost an election - Lansbury, Smith and Blair. The first two had an unfair advantage in that they never fought one.
2) Since 1867, of all leaders who have fought three or more elections, only two - Thatcher and Blair - have never lost an election. On average, Blair won more seats and Thatcher more of the popular vote. Even we change that number to two general elections, that only adds David Cameron to the list of undefeated party leaders, although Neville Chamberlain never fought an election.
3) The most consecutive election wins by one party leader is Edward Smith-Stanley, 14th Earl of Derby, who was leader of the largest single caucus the Protectionists (parties not being a thing in the way Wikipedia understands them, so don’t quote their wildly inaccurate articles on the subject over this) in 1847, 1852, 1857, 1859 and 1865. However, due to the dynamics of the House of Commons, he never actually commanded a majority. By contrast, the Whig party, backed by the Peelites, the Irish, the Radicals and the Socialists, always did command a majority when they could agree on a leader. Later, most of this group became known as the ‘Liberal’ Party, and from 1867 was formally merged into one party under a name adopted by the Whigs and Peelites when they merged in 1859.
For being a Commie.
I suppose that’s one minor benefit of weather like this.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
The back prices for those ten candidates add up to 92.7%, so the market reckons there’s a 7.3% chance that the person nominated isn’t one of their FIFTY named runners.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111
A free money market, surely one of those top ten has to win it?
Also if we're only seeing it detected in countries with good medical systems, it may be because the countries with shitty medical systems aren't detecting it, rather than because there's nothing there to detect.
A storm a weekend is irksome.
But Marquee Mark has a lot more confidence in our government than I do. There's just no sign that they can stop it spreading. This is typical of the response:
So she's been spreading the virus around her school all week - and maybe the week before as well - and they're going to close it for two days. Then on Wednesday the kids are all coming back to school again, just in time for them to infect each other...
I mean, for all I know this may be the best they can do and other stuff may be counterproductive, but I don't see any reason to believe they'll be able to stop it spreading. Just possibly slow it down until the weather changes, I guess...
The survival rate outside China is encouraging, but there is a time lag phenomenon, and much less stress on health systems.
A condition where 10% of affected patients require intensive care in isolation is manageable with a few dozen cases, not with hundreds. At that point ICU beds will need to be triaged and rationed and the mortality rate will jump.
South Korea is the one to watch. A city of 2 million with good economic development and health care system. If it escapes control there then it will be very difficult indeed.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1231078493322018816?s=19
No-one in the frame to my mind has what it will take to beat Trump. And I say that in despair..... The idea that Trump is the Best America Can Offer for 8 years - sheesh.
If so, I’ll happily lay you £100 at that price, against my £1300
New blue British passport rollout to begin in March https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51585018
Zero pounds.
So there’s a pretty good chance of the whole of the Health and Environment Ministry staff getting the virus, or worse passing it on to otherwise uninfected people who come to them with no more than a bad cold?
I was speaking to my Thai friend yesterday; she has her (British) husband and daughter out there and is in daily contact. From what she says, there is growing panic with events being cancelled, people dropping their travel plans, many people wearing masks and some trying to avoid going out. Regardless of the path of the disease there will surely be an economic consequence from all this suspended activity.
I’ll be getting one, then as I need to renew mine in the autumn. I have had two burgundy ones and before that a black one. Having a blue one will be a novelty.
The size and bendy format that is now becoming uniform is down to the reading machines at airports.
I don’t like smug here today, gone tomorrow politicians using them to make their silly nationalistic political points.
Candidate BF back price
Sanders 2.02
Bloomberg 5.3
Buttigeig 9.2
Biden 15.5
Clinton H 34
Warren 42
Klobuchar 130
Obama M 230
Steyer 510
Patrick 360
Prepare for some epic turnarounds.
So yes it is smugness but you're only encouraging them to pursue similar smug opportunities by getting so annoyed. Its classic trolling.
Malcy, What do you think about the Scottish Govt trying to pull the wool over the electorates eyes over the appalling Education results?
Are there others?
Weirdly not many footie teams have a navy strip - Dundee FC and Bolton are the only examples I can think of ? Maybe Spurs.
- Boris won't be gone tomorrow
- the blue flag with yellow stars of the EU is very much making a silly nationalistic political point ie that they have rolled
2827 countries into a nation that doesn't really exist outside of their silly nation-building flag......So relax some.
Well it clearly backfired, because it became an issue, a little stone in a shoe. Might be trivial, worse things happen at sea and all that, but it was there in the pile of annoying niggles, that could have been avoided by Europe in their quest for visible evidence of ever closer union. And then one day there was a vote where you could remove the stone in your shoe.....
Let’s hope the next government allows people to choose whatever colour they fancy.
I'm as baffled by the strength of your upset as I am by those who upset about them being burgundy in the first place.
You don’t have anything against the colour In itself, but what it now represents and the obligation to show that belief.
The blue passport was not a necessary part of Brexit. It now represents something else. A nostalgic retreat to days gone by and to petty nationalistic politics. Politicians like Patel who delight in such things and use it for their political ends, do not represent the values of our country. I do not particularly like being forced to be part of that.
PS Dan Hodges settles like an albatross on any political career (David Milliband in particular) and deserves a bit of gentle ribbing.
The government has not taken away our choice re the colour, we as users never had a choice. as such whatever their motivations (and none would likely deny its symbolic if petty) using one has no political impact. Being able to pick and choose what they like would make it political as people expressed views through which colour ir design they picked.
Funnily enough the first complaint about the colour of passports I recall was in Bill Brysons Notes from a small island. I think he suggested that looked like the identity papers of a polish seaman or something.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/why-have-so-many-of-our-recent-viruses-come-from-bats/
They make Goebbels unit look like amateurs.
But its time to be off. Pleasant if cold mornings to all
I've somehow went from a strong Dem nom book with positive numbers across it all pre Chriatmas to being basically zero on the main runners, negative on Bloomberg/the field and a big but now unlayable green next to Warren.
So I believe in Warren.
Change happens all the time
(*You may even outlive the Monarchy at this rate....)
.....which you will not have in your hedge.