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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a holiday note linking the location of football clubs to wh

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a holiday note linking the location of football clubs to what happened at GE2019 & the referendum

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited December 2019
    First like Liverpool.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
  • F1: 5 year contract for Leclerc.
    https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1209056102211575809

    Bad news for Vettel, but also means any new Ferrari driver has to know they'll be treated as a number two, possibly excepting Hamilton.
  • First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
  • First like Liverpool.

    Its our year.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Wimbledon in yellow made me chuckle (it's right btw, they play in Kingston).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
  • Foxy said:

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
    Indeed, after 2014 and last season (97pts and still didn’t win the league FFS) I’m reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.
  • Foxy said:

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
    Indeed. Boxing day fixture looks like a fascinating 6-pointer. Who would have thought that at the start of the season?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    Foxy said:

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
    Indeed. Boxing day fixture looks like a fascinating 6-pointer. Who would have thought that at the start of the season?
    Joking aside, I think Liverpool are too far ahead to be caught.

    This last week was a bit shaky for Leicester, but at the start of the season would have taken 39 points, second place and cup semi vs Villa at Christmas.

    Boxing day could go either way, but Boxing Day fixtures do seem to favour the home team.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    edited December 2019
    "Indeed, since everyone is talking about the electoral importance of towns at the moment, note that in the top two divisions there are just two clubs with the word “Town” in their title (and none in the Premier League), compared to eight with “City” in their title. Whereas in the bottom three divisions, there are 14 “Town”s, and five “City”s"

    Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there

    EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tlg86 said:

    Wimbledon in yellow made me chuckle (it's right btw, they play in Kingston).

    Wimbledon constituency will be yellow next time too
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wimbledon in yellow made me chuckle (it's right btw, they play in Kingston).

    Wimbledon constituency will be yellow next time too
    Thought they played in Milton Keynes...
  • isam said:

    "Indeed, since everyone is talking about the electoral importance of towns at the moment, note that in the top two divisions there are just two clubs with the word “Town” in their title (and none in the Premier League), compared to eight with “City” in their title. Whereas in the bottom three divisions, there are 14 “Town”s, and five “City”s"

    Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there

    EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess

    Depends upon the club.

    I support two clubs - Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool - and I think the experience is fantastic whether at Prenton Park or Anfield. The experience is different, Tranmere being a more classic local club, but the atmosphere in Anfield is a unique experience. Some clubs atmospheres can be very "corporate" and sterile but I don't think anyone who has ever been to Anfield could suggest that there.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Will just use the short window before I get banned again for well who knows what to wish you all a merry Xmas and will be around to settle up any bets I have for 2020 with our SNP friends.

    With the news that Ed Miliband is in charge of one of the post mortems it was interesting to hear on this podcast with Matthew Goodwin that Ed was briefed on the Labour meltdown over 5 years ago.

    Will he be listening this time ?


    https://audioboom.com/posts/7460974-matthew-goodwin-why-labour-lost-the-election

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Wow. Real gulf in class there. That says a lot. The Tories can thank their lucky stars that the election was decided at the ballot box and not on the football field. They'd have been hammered - by my calculations a majority of at least 150 for Labour.

    "Oh Jeremy Corbyn. Oh Jeremy Corbyn."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    TGOHF666 said:

    Will just use the short window before I get banned again for well who knows what to wish you all a merry Xmas and will be around to settle up any bets I have for 2020 with our SNP friends.

    With the news that Ed Miliband is in charge of one of the post mortems it was interesting to hear on this podcast with Matthew Goodwin that Ed was briefed on the Labour meltdown over 5 years ago.

    Will he be listening this time ?


    https://audioboom.com/posts/7460974-matthew-goodwin-why-labour-lost-the-election

    MODS!
    :smile:
  • FPT

    ***** Betting Post ******

    If one week really is a long time in politics as Harold Wilson once said, then two years let alone three years is surely an eternity.
    Who would have guessed in 2015 that we would be facing a General Election a mere two years hence and that this would be followed only another two years later still by yet another General Election in 2019?
    Yet those seemingly generous folk at SkyBet are willing to offer odds of 25/1 against the next GE taking place in 2021 or 22/1 against it being held in 2022. By backing both these options and staking 46.9% and 53.1% respectively, one will receive winning odds of 11.2% should either of these year-long bets prove successful.
    I'm not going to even contemplate the sort of circumstances which could conceivably result in such timing of a General Election. Better at this stage to sum up up the combined possibilities in four brief words uttered by Wilson's predecessor, Harold Macmillan ... "Events, Dear Boy, Events"!

    Of course the difference between now and then is that the government now has a very healthy majority. The current working majority is 87. After 2017 the government was a minority government so an early election made a lot of sense so long as it looked winnable. After 2015 the government had a very small majority so an early election made some sense when it looked like a landslide would be the result. Why go early now?

    I think the odds of an extremely early election this Parliament to be well below 11%.
    1. There are any number of reasons why we might have a GE in 2021 or 2022, quite apart from the Gov't deciding to "go early" ... indeed the Gov't might not have much part in the decision making process.

    2. I don't consider a General Election held in 2021 or 2022 to be "extremely" early.

    3. For those uninitiated when it comes to betting, odds of 11.2/1 which apply here, represent a winning chance in percentage terms of 8.2%, not 11% as referred to.
    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.
  • As someone who lives in Huntingdon, I can say it's a pretty solid traditional Tory shire seat, with a strongish Lib Dem and Labour presence in the town itself and the Tories very strong elsewhere in the constituency. Taking 1997 as a benchmark for Tory support seems wrong, however, as John Major received the boost that sitting PMs usually get.

    2001, Djanogly's first election, and where the Tories basically stood still nationally seems a better starting point. He got 24.5k votes and 49.9. There has been a slow increase in the number of Tory votes and share since then to roughly 32k and 55%.

    There is no obvious anti-Tory party, with the Lib Dems and Labour swapping over as 2nd place since 2001 on several occasions. There was a strong UKIP vote (9,000 in 2015) but which has largely switched to the Tories post-referendum (though the former UKIP independent candidate still got nearly 2,000 votes this time).

    I work in Cambridge and the improvements to the A14, which are ongoing but due to be complete at the end of next year will likely increase the Cambridge commuter zone and see more young liberal voters exiled from Cambridge come to live in the constituency. There is a chance, therefore, that Huntingdon might become more like South Cambs in a few years and, if voters can identify the most successful anti-Tory vehicle, put pressure on the seat, especially in a bad year for the Tories.
  • I must have missed what's happened with Mr Flashman (deceased), didn't realise he was banned. 😕 Merry Christmas to you too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,716
    TGOHF666 said:

    Will just use the short window before I get banned again for well who knows what to wish you all a merry Xmas and will be around to settle up any bets I have for 2020 with our SNP friends.

    With the news that Ed Miliband is in charge of one of the post mortems it was interesting to hear on this podcast with Matthew Goodwin that Ed was briefed on the Labour meltdown over 5 years ago.

    Will he be listening this time ?


    https://audioboom.com/posts/7460974-matthew-goodwin-why-labour-lost-the-election

    Very thoughtful on his 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcast with Geoff Lloyd on 16th. Which I listened to while in the gym this morning. The good Mr Corbyn obviously didn't impress Ed's voters in Doncaster North, but his bringing Ronnie O'Sullivan to Miners Welfare Clubs did.
  • Merry Christmas, Mr. Flashman (deceased).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2019
    So Labour won most seats wiith club grounds in the Premier League and Championship, the Tories won most seats with club grounds in League One and League Two. Interestingly while the article says Chelsea is the only Remain voting seat with a ground in the Premier League the Tories hold, Chelsea supporters had the highest number of Leave supporters of any in the Premier League.

    It looks like the only LD seat with a club ground was Wimbledon, which has its ground in Kingston upon Thames
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Well I appear to be unbanned- thanks mods.

    For whatever I did to get banned I can only apologise.

    Hope everyone had a profitable election !
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797



    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.

    This parliament was elected at a time when the next election has to be held on May 9th 2024.

    As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.

    If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
  • Liverpool voted leave? or the Anfield area?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Foxy said:

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
    Indeed, after 2014 and last season (97pts and still didn’t win the league FFS) I’m reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.
    It’s as likely as George Osborne becoming PM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    HYUFD said:

    So Labour won most seats wiith club grounds in the Premier League and Championship, the Tories won most seats with club grounds in League One and League Two. Interestingly while the article says Chelsea is the only Remain voting seat with a ground in the Premier League the Tories hold, Chelsea supporters had the highest number of Leave supporters of any in the Premier League.

    It looks like the only LD seat with a club ground was Wimbledon

    Is the table correct? I thought Liverpool (and Everton) voted Remain? Or is this down to their particular constituency?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Interesting that the Daily Mail is reporting this bit of (none) news for any (even vaguely) successful bettor

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7821167/Betting-firm-Bet365-uses-backdoor-algorithms-block-potential-big-winners.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2019
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Labour won most seats wiith club grounds in the Premier League and Championship, the Tories won most seats with club grounds in League One and League Two. Interestingly while the article says Chelsea is the only Remain voting seat with a ground in the Premier League the Tories hold, Chelsea supporters had the highest number of Leave supporters of any in the Premier League.

    It looks like the only LD seat with a club ground was Wimbledon

    Is the table correct? I thought Liverpool (and Everton) voted Remain? Or is this down to their particular constituency?
    The latter, Anfield and Goodison Park are in Liverpool Walton which voted 54% Leave.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,716
    eek said:



    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.

    This parliament was elected at a time when the next election has to be held on May 9th 2024.

    As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.

    If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
    When they get round to it, Boris' Government will repeal the FTPA, which in turn repealed the Act under which GE's had to be at least every five years. Repealing an Act which in itself repealed another, doesn't AIUI (although I could be wrong) mean that we're back to the status quo ante.
    The next election, therefore, I suggest, could be some way away.
    Just suppose, that the new Parliamentary Elections Act, which will include all the noxious suggestions, such as producing a driving licence or passport before being able to vote says that elections will be held when the Queen, on the advice of the PM says they will be?
    Or we go back to the 18thC and elections are held then, or on the death of the Sovereign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2019
    One question on elections - why the 4 and 5 year historical idiosyncrasy ?

    May 2024 splits the anomaly which is why I think it's such an almost cert
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Labour won most seats wiith club grounds in the Premier League and Championship, the Tories won most seats with club grounds in League One and League Two. Interestingly while the article says Chelsea is the only Remain voting seat with a ground in the Premier League the Tories hold, Chelsea supporters had the highest number of Leave supporters of any in the Premier League.

    It looks like the only LD seat with a club ground was Wimbledon

    Is the table correct? I thought Liverpool (and Everton) voted Remain? Or is this down to their particular constituency?
    The latter, Anfield and Goodison Park are in Liverpool Walton which voted 54% Leave.

    Interesting that despite Walton narrowly voting leave, the Lab share barely budged, down to a mere 84.7% share!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Pulpstar said:

    One question on elections - why the 4 and 5 year historical idiosyncrasy ?

    May 2024 splits the anomaly which is why I think it's such an almost cert

    Surely you go after four years if the polls are looking favourable. You only hang on for five when you're hoping something comes up. It didn't in 1997, arguably it did in 2010 as I think the expenses scandal probably hurt the Tories more.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    On topic - this reflects the long term move for Labour away from the coalfields to the cities.

    In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    FPT

    kyf_100 said:



    If I were gay and living anywhere near that school in Birmingham, I might be inclined to disagree with you on the "wholly brilliant" thing.

    I think you are conflating two separate issues.

    I agree with Gabs about the benefits of migration and freedom of movement.

    But at the same time I believe that migrants must abide by both the spirit and the letter of the laws and culture of the country they are moving to. So I would be far tougher on any aspects of immigrant culture which result in challenges to our own laws and customs. This would include absolutely no concessions for religion when it comes to how our schools operate or our laws on things like animal welfare. If migrants don't like this then they can go elsewhere. If they are happy to abide by our laws and customs - or in the case of the latter at least not challenge them - then they should be welcome.

    Our problem historically is that we have welcomed immigration whilst not expecting migrants to abide by our own laws and respect our own culture. The vast majority of migrants have done this off their own back as they are decent people. A very few have chosen not to. That is where our laws should insist that they do.
    I almost agree with you, I was essentially just reaching for the most obvious example to disprove Gabs "wholly brilliant" statement.

    The economic benefits of migration are easy to prove and while there are definitely winners and losers the net effect is overall positive.

    Culturally speaking it is much more difficult. I think society works well when it's a melting pot, but I feel deeply uneasy about the lack of integration in today's society and I don't think this is something you can regulate with the law.

    You can make it illegal to discriminate against someone and make hate speech a crime, but you can't prevent a person from hating another person because of who or what they are.

    The law might prevent me from saying "I hate gays" but it can't stop me from thinking it or engaging in any number of low level, ostracising behaviours designed to make the other feel uncomfortable, while remaining within the letter of the law.

    I'm immensely proud of the great strides the UK has taken within my lifetime to become a more socially liberal, secular, tolerant and open society. However we need to recognise that immigrants from other societies may not share those values and we can't simply regulate their values away from them. Therefore it is a problem.

    The answer for me is to only allow immigration from people (note: not places) who share our values. However this is very difficult to achieve in practice.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    isam said:

    "Indeed, since everyone is talking about the electoral importance of towns at the moment, note that in the top two divisions there are just two clubs with the word “Town” in their title (and none in the Premier League), compared to eight with “City” in their title. Whereas in the bottom three divisions, there are 14 “Town”s, and five “City”s"

    Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there

    EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess

    Depends upon the club.

    I support two clubs - Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool - and I think the experience is fantastic whether at Prenton Park or Anfield. The experience is different, Tranmere being a more classic local club, but the atmosphere in Anfield is a unique experience. Some clubs atmospheres can be very "corporate" and sterile but I don't think anyone who has ever been to Anfield could suggest that there.
    Anfield on a European Cup evening is one of the best atmospheres of any sporting event anywhere. Definitely need to get back there more often.

    The closest personal memory would be an international at Twickenham (vs Australia on Remembrance Day 2010 - 80,000 people standing for two full minutes' silence, followed by the most electric of atmospheres as England cruised to a win).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One question on elections - why the 4 and 5 year historical idiosyncrasy ?

    May 2024 splits the anomaly which is why I think it's such an almost cert

    Surely you go after four years if the polls are looking favourable. You only hang on for five when you're hoping something comes up. It didn't in 1997, arguably it did in 2010 as I think the expenses scandal probably hurt the Tories more.
    May 2024 is 4 years 5 months. Another thing is I think the Tories will keep the campaign period as short as possible
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    Interesting that the Daily Mail is reporting this bit of (none) news for any (even vaguely) successful bettor

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7821167/Betting-firm-Bet365-uses-backdoor-algorithms-block-potential-big-winners.html

    We all know that every betting company does this, it's just that the DM has got it in for this particular one this week, after their annual accounts showed that the bosses got large salaries and bonuses.

    Would be good to see DCMS take an interest in this sort of data profiling behaviour though, a lot of us on here have at one time or another been reduced to pennies or had accounts closed altogether.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2019
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    eek said:



    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.

    This parliament was elected at a time when the next election has to be held on May 9th 2024.

    As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.

    If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
    When they get round to it, Boris' Government will repeal the FTPA, which in turn repealed the Act under which GE's had to be at least every five years. Repealing an Act which in itself repealed another, doesn't AIUI (although I could be wrong) mean that we're back to the status quo ante.
    The next election, therefore, I suggest, could be some way away.
    Just suppose, that the new Parliamentary Elections Act, which will include all the noxious suggestions, such as producing a driving licence or passport before being able to vote says that elections will be held when the Queen, on the advice of the PM says they will be?
    Or we go back to the 18thC and elections are held then, or on the death of the Sovereign.
    i don't see why we need General Elections at all. I mean, the Lib Dems were prepared to Revoke a massive referendum mandate, just because they wanted to.

    Let that be our example! Let the Tories Revoke electoral democracy, and govern for all time. It's for the best.
  • Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Byronic said:

    eek said:



    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.

    This parliament was elected at a time when the next election has to be held on May 9th 2024.

    As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.

    If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
    When they get round to it, Boris' Government will repeal the FTPA, which in turn repealed the Act under which GE's had to be at least every five years. Repealing an Act which in itself repealed another, doesn't AIUI (although I could be wrong) mean that we're back to the status quo ante.
    The next election, therefore, I suggest, could be some way away.
    Just suppose, that the new Parliamentary Elections Act, which will include all the noxious suggestions, such as producing a driving licence or passport before being able to vote says that elections will be held when the Queen, on the advice of the PM says they will be?
    Or we go back to the 18thC and elections are held then, or on the death of the Sovereign.
    i don't see why we need General Elections at all. I mean, the Lib Dems were prepared to Revoke a massive referendum mandate, just because they wanted to.

    Let that be our example! Let the Tories Revoke electoral democracy, and govern for all time. It's for the best.
    Steady on. Maybe for the rest of our 1000-year mandate, sure. But for all time? :o
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic - this reflects the long term move for Labour away from the coalfields to the cities.

    In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election

    And since cities are the future Labour are well placed. Landslide under Pidcock in 2038!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: 5 year contract for Leclerc.
    ttps://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1209056102211575809

    Bad news for Vettel, but also means any new Ferrari driver has to know they'll be treated as a number two, possibly excepting Hamilton.

    Can't blame either Ferrari or Leclerc for wanting to get that one down early.

    Watch for what Lewis does now, he's the only other driver who can take his pick of seats, and the rumours continue to swirl about the intentions of Mercedes in the future of the sport. He wants two more titles to give him pretty much every major record in the books.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic - this reflects the long term move for Labour away from the coalfields to the cities.

    In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election

    And since cities are the future Labour are well placed. Landslide under Pidcock in 2038!
    In 2038 she'll still be four years younger than Johnson is now - and very unlikely to have matured in the intervening 19 years.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    RobD said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:



    1. That's much more likely in a Hung Parliament situation, not particularly likely in a working majority of 87 situation.

    2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.

    3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.

    This parliament was elected at a time when the next election has to be held on May 9th 2024.

    As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.

    If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
    When they get round to it, Boris' Government will repeal the FTPA, which in turn repealed the Act under which GE's had to be at least every five years. Repealing an Act which in itself repealed another, doesn't AIUI (although I could be wrong) mean that we're back to the status quo ante.
    The next election, therefore, I suggest, could be some way away.
    Just suppose, that the new Parliamentary Elections Act, which will include all the noxious suggestions, such as producing a driving licence or passport before being able to vote says that elections will be held when the Queen, on the advice of the PM says they will be?
    Or we go back to the 18thC and elections are held then, or on the death of the Sovereign.
    i don't see why we need General Elections at all. I mean, the Lib Dems were prepared to Revoke a massive referendum mandate, just because they wanted to.

    Let that be our example! Let the Tories Revoke electoral democracy, and govern for all time. It's for the best.
    Steady on. Maybe for the rest of our 1000-year mandate, sure. But for all time? :o
    OK OK. Until the Entropic Death of the Observable Universe. THEN we can have an election. And maybe PR.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic - this reflects the long term move for Labour away from the coalfields to the cities.

    In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election

    And since cities are the future Labour are well placed. Landslide under Pidcock in 2038!
    Not under FPTP they aren't, the future under that system is towns
  • Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    PS. And here's a reminder why unpopular politicians should never try and hang on the coat tails of teams they don't support.

    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/general-election-2019/2019/12/11/corbyns-molineux-publicity-stunt-prompts-fury-from-wolves-fans/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic - this reflects the long term move for Labour away from the coalfields to the cities.

    In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election

    It is a global phenomonon, just as Labour won almost all of inner London on 12th December, Hillary swept New York city, Chicago, San Francisco and LA, Macron swept Paris in the first round of the French presidential election, Australian Labor won Sydney and Melbourne in May, Trudeau's Liberals swept Toronto and Montreal in November but the further away from the inner cities you got and into the suburbs and especially industrial or ex industrial towns and rural areas, the more conservative it became
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Sandpit said:

    In 2038 she'll still be four years younger than Johnson is now - and very unlikely to have matured in the intervening 19 years.

    Well I think she will. 32 to 51 is a period when people do a great deal of maturing. Look at me. People knowing me at 32 would never believe the Wise Old Owl I have become.

    Mind you, Johnson has shown that one can be very (!) immature and yet comprehensively win a GE as leader of a major party. He's shown that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
  • eek said:

    Interesting that the Daily Mail is reporting this bit of (none) news for any (even vaguely) successful bettor

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7821167/Betting-firm-Bet365-uses-backdoor-algorithms-block-potential-big-winners.html

    Looking at my Labour Leader book, I'm very grateful that Bet365 did limit me to bets of tuppence ha'penny back in 2017 and 2018.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    In 2038 she'll still be four years younger than Johnson is now - and very unlikely to have matured in the intervening 19 years.

    Well I think she will. 32 to 51 is a period when people do a great deal of maturing. Look at me. People knowing me at 32 would never believe the Wise Old Owl I have become.

    Mind you, Johnson has shown that one can be very (!) immature and yet comprehensively win a GE as leader of a major party. He's shown that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
    I prefer the example of her mentor, Corbyn's barely changed his mind on any subject since the 1970s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    isam said:

    "Indeed, since everyone is talking about the electoral importance of towns at the moment, note that in the top two divisions there are just two clubs with the word “Town” in their title (and none in the Premier League), compared to eight with “City” in their title. Whereas in the bottom three divisions, there are 14 “Town”s, and five “City”s"

    Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there

    EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess

    Depends upon the club.

    I support two clubs - Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool - and I think the experience is fantastic whether at Prenton Park or Anfield. The experience is different, Tranmere being a more classic local club, but the atmosphere in Anfield is a unique experience. Some clubs atmospheres can be very "corporate" and sterile but I don't think anyone who has ever been to Anfield could suggest that there.
    Fair enough, I've not been to Anfield. Arsenal probably not a great example as it is pretty corporate with lots of Johnny come lately fans
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes    Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes  Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
    It's not too surprising that the Tories have the most efficient vote, since Labour will have had a lot of near misses.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Hi All,

    I'm just popping in to say that I'm taking a bit of a break from PB. Thank you everyone for your entertainment and insights.

    I will return once we have a new leader.

    Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Ave it will be pleased that Watford is Blue
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    I have a suspicion that the more prosperous parts of some of the big cities might move back towards the Tories next time unless Brexit remains a big issue which is far from certain. Especially if, as seems likely, Labour will remain on its extreme leftish niche. There is no obvious reason for SW London seats to remain red given the social and income profile of many of their voters. I could also see more towns going blue - Swansea and Sunderland spring to mind with zero or very limited Labour recovery virtually anywhere. It seems they may have to wait a while before they're back in the running unless they can accept the need to move back to the centre.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
    To be fair to him, he was around for a few days afterwards.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Hi All,

    I'm just popping in to say that I'm taking a bit of a break from PB. Thank you everyone for your entertainment and insights.

    I will return once we have a new leader.

    Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

    Merry Christmas, hopefully you are back sooner than that. :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    felix said:

    I have a suspicion that the more prosperous parts of some of the big cities might move back towards the Tories next time unless Brexit remains a big issue which is far from certain. Especially if, as seems likely, Labour will remain on its extreme leftish niche. There is no obvious reason for SW London seats to remain red given the social and income profile of many of their voters. I could also see more towns going blue - Swansea and Sunderland spring to mind with zero or very limited Labour recovery virtually anywhere. It seems they may have to wait a while before they're back in the running unless they can accept the need to move back to the centre.

    Watch Hull and Doncaster and Coventry next time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tory defences 37 - 43 next time round are interesting:

    Peterborough - Peterborough Population 201,041 (Some in NW Cambs)
    Derby North - Derby population 248,700
    Guildford - Guildford population 80,000
    Stroud - County constituency, Stroud population just over 12,000
    Wrexham - Wrexham population 65,692
    Aberconwy County constituency, Llandudno population just over 20,000
    Pudsey - Leeds suburbia

    Geographically very spread, only 1 facing a non Labour opponent (Guildford). Suggests the next few GEs at least are fought over towns as @HYUFD posits.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Hi All,

    I'm just popping in to say that I'm taking a bit of a break from PB. Thank you everyone for your entertainment and insights.

    I will return once we have a new leader.

    Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

    Away so long?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
    To be fair to him, he was around for a few days afterwards.
    Yes He was but he was either a troll or knew sfa ....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    In 2038 she'll still be four years younger than Johnson is now - and very unlikely to have matured in the intervening 19 years.

    Well I think she will. 32 to 51 is a period when people do a great deal of maturing. Look at me. People knowing me at 32 would never believe the Wise Old Owl I have become.

    Mind you, Johnson has shown that one can be very (!) immature and yet comprehensively win a GE as leader of a major party. He's shown that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
    I prefer the example of her mentor, Corbyn's barely changed his mind on any subject since the 1970s.
    When you've achieved moral perfection at an early age why change?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
    A brief break I'm sure. A GE is draining.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes    Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
    ....with trend lines..... :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
    A brief break I'm sure. A GE is draining.
    I think I could do another. Not sure about our Francis though. :D
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Hi All,

    I'm just popping in to say that I'm taking a bit of a break from PB. Thank you everyone for your entertainment and insights.

    I will return once we have a new leader.

    Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

    Same to you, old boy. Enjoy your eggnog
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    #NFFC in blue. It's not right. Not right at all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes    Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
    ....with trend lines..... :)
    I'm at work today, but will be on a plane tomorrow bored for six hours and thinking of Christmas. Will see if I can knock up something going back half a dozen elections . ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I note Katie Hopkins and Stormzy are trending on twitter. I wonder if she can keep twitter distracted for a full term of Boris Gov't ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:
    Mince pies better than xmas pudding? I dont know this country anymore and I dont want to know it now.
  • HYUFD said:
    Read the Guardian article. Confirms there are lies and then there are statistics.

    If the left stay with the thinking that their socialist agenda was popular, they are doomed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    I note Katie Hopkins and Stormzy are trending on twitter. I wonder if she can keep twitter distracted for a full term of Boris Gov't ?

    Didn't it cost her a couple of hundred grand, the last time she got into a Twitter spat with an annoying lefty?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    "Indeed, since everyone is talking about the electoral importance of towns at the moment, note that in the top two divisions there are just two clubs with the word “Town” in their title (and none in the Premier League), compared to eight with “City” in their title. Whereas in the bottom three divisions, there are 14 “Town”s, and five “City”s"

    Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there

    EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess

    Depends upon the club.

    I support two clubs - Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool - and I think the experience is fantastic whether at Prenton Park or Anfield. The experience is different, Tranmere being a more classic local club, but the atmosphere in Anfield is a unique experience. Some clubs atmospheres can be very "corporate" and sterile but I don't think anyone who has ever been to Anfield could suggest that there.
    Fair enough, I've not been to Anfield. Arsenal probably not a great example as it is pretty corporate with lots of Johnny come lately fans
    If I watch football (not often, half a dozen times a year?) I go to Oxford or Liverpool. Have to agree - Liverpool not corporate at all, incredibly welcoming and a definite feeling of community and family (though Hillsborough provide a very strong moral core for that). Man City had the most 'corporate' feel to it, but that may have been the ground was so sparkly clean...

    Football clubs are a fascinating lens to study business through because it's such a different modus operandi. They can cheerfully ignore golden rules of other businesses (e.g. if you hack customers off they'll go elsewhere) but at the same time 'customers' (i.e. fans) can feel they have real agency for change within their clubs.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I note Katie Hopkins and Stormzy are trending on twitter. I wonder if she can keep twitter distracted for a full term of Boris Gov't ?

    If HYUFD isn't approvingly posting hot @KTHopkins content, she must really have gone ott.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes    Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
    ....with trend lines..... :)
    whatever happened to those yellow tables?

    not enough of those of late on this site
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    I note Katie Hopkins and Stormzy are trending on twitter. I wonder if she can keep twitter distracted for a full term of Boris Gov't ?

    One spews out crass hate filled bile in a high frequency percussive rhythm.

    The other one is Stormzy.

  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Mince pies better than xmas pudding? I dont know this country anymore and I dont want to know it now.
    Also, no human being worthy of my respect could, when hungry, be offered a choice of a roast potato or bacon/sausage related product and choose the potato. Roast potatoes are great, but they are the support act.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mansfield is now a safer Tory seat than Huntingdon, Ben Bradley got 64% on December 12th to Jonathan Djanogoly's 55%.

    That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
    I think he misses a couple of things here:

    1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).

    2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.

    3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.

    4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
    All factors but none of that changes the core facts that Mansfield is a working class seat and Huntingdon is a middle class seat and since 1992 Mansfield has gone from just 33% Tory to 64% Tory while Huntingdon has gone from 66% Tory to 54% Tory.

    The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
    We need a thread on the efficiency of the Tory vote......
    Party  Votes    Seats  Votes per seat
    Con 13,966,565 365 38,264
    Lab 10,269,076 202 50,837
    SNP 1,242,380 48 25,882
    LD 3,696,423 12 308,035
    BXP 642,303 0
    ....with trend lines..... :)
    I'm at work today, but will be on a plane tomorrow bored for six hours and thinking of Christmas. Will see if I can knock up something going back half a dozen elections . ;)
    I’d have to play with the data to take a proper view, but my instinct is that “votes per seat” somehow needs normalising to take account of sizes of seats to be really meaningful. Some sort of “adjusted votes per seat”.
  • RobD said:

    Charles said:

    Thanks for the thread.
    A reminder that:
    1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
    2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.

    Mentioning West Bromwich reminds me:

    Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
    Correct Horse Battery seems to have disappeared too..??
    To be fair to him, he was around for a few days afterwards.
    I can remember saying Albion was over emotionally involved.The Lib Dem campaign was a disaster from start to finish with terrible leadership.I was advising on here to sell Lib Dem seats and tipped Carshalton and Wallington to go early on (though got Kingston wrong). Got slagged off on here for doing so.They narrowly avoided almost total wipe out due to 4 Scottish holds which were difficult to predict either way from an English standpoint.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Katie Hopkins and Stormzy are trending on twitter. I wonder if she can keep twitter distracted for a full term of Boris Gov't ?

    If HYUFD isn't approvingly posting hot @KTHopkins content, she must really have gone ott.
    Why have you tagged her - is she on PB? :grimace:
  • F1: 5 year contract for Leclerc.
    https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1209056102211575809

    Bad news for Vettel, but also means any new Ferrari driver has to know they'll be treated as a number two, possibly excepting Hamilton.

    Hamilton will win the 2020 championship.
  • Foxy said:

    First like Liverpool.

    Surely this season.
    No, we won’t win the PL this season.

    Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
    We all know that when Liverpool are top of the League at Christmas, the team in second place picks up the trophy B)
    I'm surprised by how many labour are in premier league and championship.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Mince pies better than xmas pudding? I dont know this country anymore and I dont want to know it now.
    Also, no human being worthy of my respect could, when hungry, be offered a choice of a roast potato or bacon/sausage related product and choose the potato. Roast potatoes are great, but they are the support act.
    It depends who cooked the roast potatoes! If my mother had cooked them, it would be no contest.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Whether you like Boris or not, this is a brilliant Chanukah message to British Jews.

    Full of vim, wit, and passion. And he does - or he fakes - emotional intelligence very well.

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1208789388278276096?s=20

    He might just have the makings of a fine prime minister. He's certainly the first I can watch, since Early Blair, without wincing or yawning.
This discussion has been closed.