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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a holiday note linking the location of football clubs to what happened at GE2019 & the referendum
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https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1209056102211575809
Bad news for Vettel, but also means any new Ferrari driver has to know they'll be treated as a number two, possibly excepting Hamilton.
Brendan Rodgers will finally win the Premier League this season.
https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/1209035443381125122?s=21
https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/1209036313820835841?s=21
https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/1209037672066535424?s=21
This last week was a bit shaky for Leicester, but at the start of the season would have taken 39 points, second place and cup semi vs Villa at Christmas.
Boxing day could go either way, but Boxing Day fixtures do seem to favour the home team.
Interesting header. I'd say there as the same kind of resentment from clubs lower down the tier towards the elite as there is in the country politically, the two map quite well. Could be just a coincidence, but I much prefer the experience of watching lower tier football at the ground to the Corporate Premiership experience. The American owners of either Dagenham or Orient mentioned this too - they loved the fact that the fans could go to the bar after the game and see the players in there
EDIT Obv the fact that American consortiums have bought those clubs makes that a bit of a corporate experience too I guess
I support two clubs - Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool - and I think the experience is fantastic whether at Prenton Park or Anfield. The experience is different, Tranmere being a more classic local club, but the atmosphere in Anfield is a unique experience. Some clubs atmospheres can be very "corporate" and sterile but I don't think anyone who has ever been to Anfield could suggest that there.
British version of MIT may be coming to Leeds.
With the news that Ed Miliband is in charge of one of the post mortems it was interesting to hear on this podcast with Matthew Goodwin that Ed was briefed on the Labour meltdown over 5 years ago.
Will he be listening this time ?
https://audioboom.com/posts/7460974-matthew-goodwin-why-labour-lost-the-election
"Oh Jeremy Corbyn. Oh Jeremy Corbyn."
2. I do. Classically early is to hold the election in Year 4 (eg 2001, 2005, 1987 etc). 2023 might be determined to be the classically early date this time, before that is extremely rare. An election essentially 1-2 years into a full term with a virtually landslide majority is entirely without precedent that I can think of.
3. I doubt even 20/1 would be value personally.
2001, Djanogly's first election, and where the Tories basically stood still nationally seems a better starting point. He got 24.5k votes and 49.9. There has been a slow increase in the number of Tory votes and share since then to roughly 32k and 55%.
There is no obvious anti-Tory party, with the Lib Dems and Labour swapping over as 2nd place since 2001 on several occasions. There was a strong UKIP vote (9,000 in 2015) but which has largely switched to the Tories post-referendum (though the former UKIP independent candidate still got nearly 2,000 votes this time).
I work in Cambridge and the improvements to the A14, which are ongoing but due to be complete at the end of next year will likely increase the Cambridge commuter zone and see more young liberal voters exiled from Cambridge come to live in the constituency. There is a chance, therefore, that Huntingdon might become more like South Cambs in a few years and, if voters can identify the most successful anti-Tory vehicle, put pressure on the seat, especially in a bad year for the Tories.
It looks like the only LD seat with a club ground was Wimbledon, which has its ground in Kingston upon Thames
For whatever I did to get banned I can only apologise.
Hope everyone had a profitable election !
As Boris is not an idiot (he's a lot of things but idiot is not one of them) and won't push things I don't think he will wait for an election on that date or push it later.
If he has a good chance of winning an election in May or October 2023 I expect he will take it.
That suggests middle class Tory Remain or narrowly Leave voting seats in the South are more vulnerable now than working class heavily Leave voting Tory seats in the Midlands and the North and Wales but Labour need a more centrist leader to be able to appeal to them or else one who does not frighten middle class voters so much that they vote Tory still rather than risk voting LD
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7821167/Betting-firm-Bet365-uses-backdoor-algorithms-block-potential-big-winners.html
The next election, therefore, I suggest, could be some way away.
Just suppose, that the new Parliamentary Elections Act, which will include all the noxious suggestions, such as producing a driving licence or passport before being able to vote says that elections will be held when the Queen, on the advice of the PM says they will be?
Or we go back to the 18thC and elections are held then, or on the death of the Sovereign.
May 2024 splits the anomaly which is why I think it's such an almost cert
In the 80s the Tories had lots of inner London. They'll be almost wiped out there next election
The economic benefits of migration are easy to prove and while there are definitely winners and losers the net effect is overall positive.
Culturally speaking it is much more difficult. I think society works well when it's a melting pot, but I feel deeply uneasy about the lack of integration in today's society and I don't think this is something you can regulate with the law.
You can make it illegal to discriminate against someone and make hate speech a crime, but you can't prevent a person from hating another person because of who or what they are.
The law might prevent me from saying "I hate gays" but it can't stop me from thinking it or engaging in any number of low level, ostracising behaviours designed to make the other feel uncomfortable, while remaining within the letter of the law.
I'm immensely proud of the great strides the UK has taken within my lifetime to become a more socially liberal, secular, tolerant and open society. However we need to recognise that immigrants from other societies may not share those values and we can't simply regulate their values away from them. Therefore it is a problem.
The answer for me is to only allow immigration from people (note: not places) who share our values. However this is very difficult to achieve in practice.
The closest personal memory would be an international at Twickenham (vs Australia on Remembrance Day 2010 - 80,000 people standing for two full minutes' silence, followed by the most electric of atmospheres as England cruised to a win).
Would be good to see DCMS take an interest in this sort of data profiling behaviour though, a lot of us on here have at one time or another been reduced to pennies or had accounts closed altogether.
1 - The difference between "post-mining" and "post-industrial". I can point you to new manufacturing companies in the area employing a thousand+ each which have been grown from tiddlers since say 1975 (eg Eurocell, Synseal).
2 - Growth of Local / Independent Politics.
3 - Ben Bradley has aiui borrowed the Lib Dem toolkit.
4 - Significant new housing / commuting.
The Labour vote has collapsed in Mansfield from 54% in 1992 to just 30% now while in Huntingdon the Labour vote has actually risen from 16% in 1992 to 22% now
Let that be our example! Let the Tories Revoke electoral democracy, and govern for all time. It's for the best.
A reminder that:
1. Wolves are top of the league table (of teams in seats which changed hands at the GE.)
2. West Bromwich (East and West) don't have a football team worthy of the name, although in Wolverhampton we knew that already.
Watch for what Lewis does now, he's the only other driver who can take his pick of seats, and the rumours continue to swirl about the intentions of Mercedes in the future of the sport. He wants two more titles to give him pretty much every major record in the books.
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/general-election-2019/2019/12/11/corbyns-molineux-publicity-stunt-prompts-fury-from-wolves-fans/
Mind you, Johnson has shown that one can be very (!) immature and yet comprehensively win a GE as leader of a major party. He's shown that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Has anyone seen @alb1on since he called me an idiot who didn’t know what he was talking about for suggesting that he was a LibDem shill who was massively overestimating their chances?
I'm just popping in to say that I'm taking a bit of a break from PB. Thank you everyone for your entertainment and insights.
I will return once we have a new leader.
Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Peterborough - Peterborough Population 201,041 (Some in NW Cambs)
Derby North - Derby population 248,700
Guildford - Guildford population 80,000
Stroud - County constituency, Stroud population just over 12,000
Wrexham - Wrexham population 65,692
Aberconwy County constituency, Llandudno population just over 20,000
Pudsey - Leeds suburbia
Geographically very spread, only 1 facing a non Labour opponent (Guildford). Suggests the next few GEs at least are fought over towns as @HYUFD posits.
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1209011785430454273?s=20
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1209009262636290048?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1209072886100713472?s=20
If the left stay with the thinking that their socialist agenda was popular, they are doomed.
Football clubs are a fascinating lens to study business through because it's such a different modus operandi. They can cheerfully ignore golden rules of other businesses (e.g. if you hack customers off they'll go elsewhere) but at the same time 'customers' (i.e. fans) can feel they have real agency for change within their clubs.
not enough of those of late on this site
The other one is Stormzy.
Full of vim, wit, and passion. And he does - or he fakes - emotional intelligence very well.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1208789388278276096?s=20
He might just have the makings of a fine prime minister. He's certainly the first I can watch, since Early Blair, without wincing or yawning.