politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT
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It is.HaroldO said:
Looks like he will be up against RLB, which is...an upgrade?SouthamObserver said:
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.kle4 said:
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.0 -
What do we think about Clive Lewis?
If the Remain Mafia want one of their own he could be in with a shout. Also more to the left than theTory scummoderates.1 -
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.0 -
And if you read the text of the blog in question you'll realise Cummings is stark raving bonkersHYUFD said:Dominic Cummings criticises the cost of aircraft carriers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/
This is beyond green ink level madness.
This is two steps away from a blog post stating that 8.735 year cycles explain everything.0 -
How far is Derbyshire Northeast from Derby Uni?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Newcastle under Lyme contains both Keele University and Silverdale colliery.Benpointer said:
What correlation are you expecting?Fishing said:One correlation I think would work particularly well in England and Wales is Tory majority by constituency and distance from constituency to the nearest former coalmine or major university.
North East Somerset is an interesting example - it's on top of a former coalfield and encircles Bath University.0 -
The rules were changed in 2018 so that anyone who becomes a member up to two weeks after the leadership election timetable is announced can vote in it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Won't matter if the media reports are correct, as they won't be eligible to vote.NickPalmer said:
Yes, as usual at leader election time new members are flooding in - we got 15 in SW Surrey alone last week. No idea how they lean.rottenborough said:
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Here are some interesting Northern Ireland statistics.0 -
It's being so cheerful that keeps me going.Cyclefree said:
Like the 1930’s, you say?Foxy said:
Though there is the small issue of the WTO resolution panels now being inquorate. So now the WTO is nearly toothless in enforcing anything. We are entering a 1930s type international tariff war, without the benefit of Empire trade.Cyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/05/wtos-trade-dispute-appeal-system-could-end-dec-heres-what-you-need-know/
How encouraging.
I think BoZo is Berlisconi rather than Mussolini.0 -
What happened to you, Peter?PeterMannion said:
Not if you still count Flint as a politicianYBarddCwsc said:Is Thornberry really going to take Flint to court?
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
You used to be a lovable old rascal. You impregnated your researcher, but got back with your wife, like a true politician of the old school.
You knew how to use your modern technology, like an electric kettle.
You were a lovable old pooch. Comfy like an old sock.
And now you are reduced to bitter posts on pb.com about Flinty.
What happened? Did Flinty turn you down?
Or is it kidney stones?0 -
I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.Cyclefree said:HaroldO said:Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.0 -
4% to beat.HYUFD said:1 -
Sky were suggesting the Team Corbyn / NEC are going to change this and have the cut off as prior to the GE.SouthamObserver said:
The rules were changed in 2018 so that anyone who becomes a member up to two weeks after the leadership election timetable is announced can vote in it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Won't matter if the media reports are correct, as they won't be eligible to vote.NickPalmer said:
Yes, as usual at leader election time new members are flooding in - we got 15 in SW Surrey alone last week. No idea how they lean.rottenborough said:0 -
He's not actually running policy. He's a man paid by rich men to fool the poor.Alistair said:
And if you read the text of the blog in question you'll realise Cummings is stark raving bonkersHYUFD said:Dominic Cummings criticises the cost of aircraft carriers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/
This is beyond green ink level madness.
This is two steps away from a blog post stating that 8.735 year cycles explain everything.0 -
I see the NI Conservatives almost held their deposit in North Down, good for them.1
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She'd blow the Labour party up.Endillion said:
I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.Cyclefree said:HaroldO said:Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
It would sort out the antiSemitism problem because there would only be tiny smithereens of the Labour party left.0 -
Yeah, that's sorta my point. If necessary, she'd blow the party up if it was the right thing to do, without much thinking through the implications.YBarddCwsc said:
She'd blow the Labour party up.Endillion said:
I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.Cyclefree said:HaroldO said:Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
It would sort out the antiSemitism problem because there would only be tiny smithereens of the Labour party left.
Neatly encapsulates both what's good and bad about her. And why she might conceivably be even more dangerous than Corbyn, in some ways.0 -
Phillips - Burgon is the dream ticket for the neutral.YBarddCwsc said:
She'd blow the Labour party up.Endillion said:
I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.Cyclefree said:HaroldO said:Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
It would sort out the antiSemitism problem because there would only be tiny smithereens of the Labour party left.0 -
That would guarantee a proper Labour split, so no bad thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky were suggesting the Team Corbyn / NEC are going to change this and have the cut off as prior to the GE.SouthamObserver said:
The rules were changed in 2018 so that anyone who becomes a member up to two weeks after the leadership election timetable is announced can vote in it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Won't matter if the media reports are correct, as they won't be eligible to vote.NickPalmer said:
Yes, as usual at leader election time new members are flooding in - we got 15 in SW Surrey alone last week. No idea how they lean.rottenborough said:
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Works fine for me to be honest. 🤷YBarddCwsc said:
She'd blow the Labour party up.Endillion said:
I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.Cyclefree said:HaroldO said:Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
It would sort out the antiSemitism problem because there would only be tiny smithereens of the Labour party left.0 -
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
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As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later0 -
Yep - and businesses and inward investors will react accordingly. And a lot of people will find that the practical reality does not match the promise.HYUFD said:
A Canada style Deal which leaves the single market and ends free movement and leaves the customs union and enables our own trade deals is what Vote Leave promised and what will now happenSouthamObserver said:
The consequences of a bare-bones Canada Deal will be extremely severe. And will certainly concentrate a lot of minds in any number of businesses. A trade deal with the US will not come close to undoing the damage. Johnson’s hubris looks like being a immensely dangerous thing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As Mandelson said today and HYUFD has just commented a basic Canada deal is possible by December 2020SouthamObserver said:
How does that work, Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
One way to get a dealrottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
It will certainly focus minds and of course a trade deal with US is likely to be in place by the end of next year
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I agree with you, I always like to see the smaller parties do well.kle4 said:I see the NI Conservatives almost held their deposit in North Down, good for them.
Although, the people who voted for them won't get their transport costs or the energy wasted back.0 -
I am a curious person.Alistair said:
And if you read the text of the blog in question you'll realise Cummings is stark raving bonkersHYUFD said:Dominic Cummings criticises the cost of aircraft carriers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/
This is beyond green ink level madness.
This is two steps away from a blog post stating that 8.735 year cycles explain everything.
So ever since I heard this I have been wondering why a strategist with absolutely no defence or procurement experience at all would worry about defence procurement or think he has any abilities in such an area.
And then I remembered that he had spent time in Russia. And I also remembered some past links with .....
And then I remembered the defamation laws.
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Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?-1
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FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky were suggesting the Team Corbyn / NEC are going to change this and have the cut off as prior to the GE.SouthamObserver said:
The rules were changed in 2018 so that anyone who becomes a member up to two weeks after the leadership election timetable is announced can vote in it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Won't matter if the media reports are correct, as they won't be eligible to vote.NickPalmer said:
Yes, as usual at leader election time new members are flooding in - we got 15 in SW Surrey alone last week. No idea how they lean.rottenborough said:
Do you have a link to that please?0 -
Blimey RLB is odds on! This is an impending financial disaster!
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Yes, I thought they were great too, when I posted the first of them yesterday:
You're welcome! ;-pCarlottaVance said:0 -
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later0 -
I tell a lie, it was CH4. Gary Gibbon states it. So it probably total horse shit.Cyclefree said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky were suggesting the Team Corbyn / NEC are going to change this and have the cut off as prior to the GE.SouthamObserver said:
The rules were changed in 2018 so that anyone who becomes a member up to two weeks after the leadership election timetable is announced can vote in it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Won't matter if the media reports are correct, as they won't be eligible to vote.NickPalmer said:
Yes, as usual at leader election time new members are flooding in - we got 15 in SW Surrey alone last week. No idea how they lean.rottenborough said:
Do you have a link to that please?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qXWPsXc6SU0 -
Interesting to see if hey ever do find a "software fix" to what is fundamentally a "hardware problem" - and then persuade 1)other global regulators, beyond the FAA and 2) Passengers to get back onboard them.Alphabet_Soup said:Boeing Boeing gone:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-508171240 -
They will sell fishing down the river and those thickos in NE Scotland will be surprisedCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.0 -
Fisheries is not going to be determined later because the EU has made it clear that it is one of the very first things they will want sorted. If you want a basic FTA for goods you will need to sort out fisheries.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
So I ask again: if the price for a basic goods FTA is access to the UK’s fishing waters, which way will Boris jump?
Sure the City can look after itself but you are ignoring my question: if some of those tax revenues decamp how is the government going to replace them?
An answer which tells me what I know already: which areas voted to Leave 3 years ago and who voted Tory this time is not an answer to these two quite specific questions. Maybe you don’t know, in which case, fair enough. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s one reason why I think politics will continue to be even more interesting than before in the next few weeks, unlike some on here.0 -
This must be insiders moving the price.isam said:Blimey RLB is odds on! This is an impending financial disaster!
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malcolmg as Emily Thornberrymalcolmg said:
They will sell fishing down the river and those thickos in NE Scotland will be surprisedCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
0 -
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
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Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.0 -
In return for access for US goods to the UK yesCyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.0 -
Is membership cutoff not common practice anyway? I’m pretty sure it has happened in Tory leadership contests when Howard stood down that essentially there was a very tight window for new sign ups.
Even when Corbyn won I suspect a lot of the left leaning members had been joining in previous years in anticipation of Miliband losing and in fairness there was a strong argument back then after successive defeats for Brown and Ed that the party needed to tack leftwards.
Ultimately to stop Long Bailey the rest of the party will have to decide upon a single candidate, because if Starmer, Nandy and Phillips stand they will be butchered. Jezza got half the support in a 4 way race last time...0 -
It’s kind of unlikely, isn’t it? Meanwhile, we’re going to find out that there’s a lot more to services than the City. Driving lorries, fixing broken parts, seconding staff, etc, etc, etc. It will be a steep learning curve.Cyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.
0 -
Good luck with that!!HYUFD said:
In return for access for US goods to the UK yesCyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.
0 -
We currently have open access for EU fishing fleets to UK waters thanks to being in the EU and CFP, post Brexit we will leave both so whatever happens with fisheries it will be no worse than what we have now and given the looser trading relationship with the EU almost certainly a looser fishing relationship will follow too.Cyclefree said:
Fisheries is not going to be determined later because the EU has made it clear that it is one of the very first things they will want sorted. If you want a basic FTA for goods you will need to sort out fisheries.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for gCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goor a basic FTA?HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
So I ask again: if the price for a basic goods FTA is access to the UK’s fishing waters, which way will Boris jump?
Sure the City can look after itself but you are ignoring my question: if some of those tax revenues decamp how is the government going to replace them?
An answer which tells me what I know already: which areas voted to Leave 3 years ago and who voted Tory this time is not an answer to these two quite specific questions. Maybe you don’t know, in which case, fair enough. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s one reason why I think politics will continue to be even more interesting than before in the next few weeks, unlike some on here.
The government will tax less to keep businesses here and spend more, Boris is a believer in the laffer curve0 -
isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
This has echos of the post Soviet era in central/ eastern Europe. I was visiting a large Polish company which, amongst its many relationships with Russia, built the wings for one of the Russian built civil aircraft (I can't remember names I'm afraid). The central and eastern European airlines had stopped buying Russian planes as they had had to previously, and were now buying western planes.Alphabet_Soup said:Boeing Boeing gone:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50817124
The guy I was talking to knew this but still seemed surprised that it had impacted Russian payment performance. He explained that they had pushed as hard as they could and had even stopped delivering the wings, but this hadn't worked so they were now having to stop making the wings because storage was becoming problematical.
I was trying to do non aerospace business with the company so I judged it prudent to just sympathise and change the subject. Never did do the business I was after.0 -
He’s just reversed a corporation tax cut.HYUFD said:
We currently have open access for EU fishing fleets to UK waters thanks to being in the EU and CFP, post Brexit we will leave both so whatever happens with fisheries it will be no worse than what we have now and given the looser trading relationship with the EU almost certainly a looser fishing relationship will follow too.Cyclefree said:
Fisheries is not going to be determined later because the EU has made it clear that it is one of the very first things they will want sorted. If you want a basic FTA for goods you will need to sort out fisheries.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for gCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goor a basic FTA?HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:rottenborough said:
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
So I ask again: if the price for a basic goods FTA is access to the UK’s fishing waters, which way will Boris jump?
Sure the City can look after itself but you are ignoring my question: if some of those tax revenues decamp how is the government going to replace them?
An answer which tells me what I know already: which areas voted to Leave 3 years ago and who voted Tory this time is not an answer to these two quite specific questions. Maybe you don’t know, in which case, fair enough. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s one reason why I think politics will continue to be even more interesting than before in the next few weeks, unlike some on here.
The government will tax less to keep businesses here and spend more, Boris is a believer in the laffer curve
“so whatever happens with fisheries it will be no worse than what we have now...”. Amazing. Is this what is meant by BINO?0 -
-
The cutoff for Tory contests is, by construction, before the vacancy emerges (you need to have already been a member for three months at that point). The rationale for this is so obvious it doesn't even bear saying. The issue with Labour is the treatment of the £3 "registered supporters".Brom said:Is membership cutoff not common practice anyway? I’m pretty sure it has happened in Tory leadership contests when Howard stood down that essentially there was a very tight window for new sign ups.
Even when Corbyn won I suspect a lot of the left leaning members had been joining in previous years in anticipation of Miliband losing and in fairness there was a strong argument back then after successive defeats for Brown and Ed that the party needed to tack leftwards.
Ultimately to stop Long Bailey the rest of the party will have to decide upon a single candidate, because if Starmer, Nandy and Phillips stand they will be butchered. Jezza got half the support in a 4 way race last time...
And the contest will be run under AV, which reduces although does not eliminate the risk of the field crowding each other out. Although last time, Smith and Eagle agreed between themselves that only one would stand to avoid this exact problem.0 -
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
0 -
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
How so?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
0 -
Commendably brief but you do seem to be an expert in everything.Cyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.1 -
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
The 3 global financial centres are New York, London and Hong Kong, whatever happens with Brexit, Trump or indeed Hong Kong pro democracy conflict that will not changeCyclefree said:
He’s just reversed a corporation tax cut.HYUFD said:
We currently have open access for EU fishing fleets to UK waters thanks to being in the EU and CFP, post Brexit we will leave both so whatever happens with fisheries it will be no worse than what we have now and given the looser trading relationship with the EU almost certainly a looser fishing relationship will follow too.Cyclefree said:
Fisheries is not going to be determined later because the EU has made it clear that it is one of the very first things they will want sorted. If you want a basic FTA for goods you will need to sort out fisheries.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for gCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goor a basic FTA?HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:rottenborough said:
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
So I ask again: if the price for a basic goods FTA is access to the UK’s fishing waters, which way will Boris jump?
Sure the City can look after itself but you are ignoring my question: if some of those tax revenues decamp how is the government going to replace them?
An answer which tells me what I know already: which areas voted to Leave 3 years ago and who voted Tory this time is not an answer to these two quite specific questions. Maybe you don’t know, in which case, fair enough. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s one reason why I think politics will continue to be even more interesting than before in the next few weeks, unlike some on here.
The government will tax less to keep businesses here and spend more, Boris is a believer in the laffer curve
“so whatever happens with fisheries it will be no worse than what we have now...”. Amazing. Is this what is meant by BINO?0 -
They may want some access and they likely will have some access but they will no longer be able to have all access by definition as we will have left the CFPeek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
Yes, let’s seeCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
(Not a first time poster, but couldn't recover my old account since moving to Oz)
Anyway, Labour are completely daft to be recruiting a leader now with at least 4 or 5 years till the next election. I always felt one of the things that killed Miliband's chances was he'd been LOTO for too long (same with Kinnock by 92).
Obviously Corbyn needs to go but they'd be much better off picking an interim leader, Harman/Beckett etc then going through a leadership election in 2/3 years time giving the new leader a decent run up to the next GE.0 -
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
0 -
He couldn't live with himself if he were to become that self aware.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
0 -
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
0 -
Might be nice to conserve stocks?eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
Forgive my possible stupidity on this, but don't we already have all the access we're likely to get?Cyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.
Bless.
I have accounts with UK subsidiaries of US banks. There's nothing that I know of that stops UK banking providers setting up shop in the US, providing they comply with the necessary regulations - I think Barclays have an operation there, among others. And a decent chunk of all US property and casualty and insurance ends up in the London Market somehow or another, either directly through Lloyd's or indirectly via the Reinsurance markets.
What else is it that we want?0 -
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly publicly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do. It is quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.0 -
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
0 -
I'd love to buy more fresh fish.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
In fact, if you go to any of the small Welsh towns or villages on Cardigan Bay, it is impossible to buy fresh fish. There are no fishmongers. There are no (commercial) fishing boats.0 -
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
Did you ever watch series 2 of The Office?0 -
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
0 -
You're saying that like it's a bad thing...isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
0 -
Northern Ireland Update
Emma Little Pengelly will become an MLA taking Carla Lockhart's old seat since she's now the Upper Bann MP.
Nigel Dodds is expected to get a Life Peerage and will not contest anymore elections.0 -
You think Lansman would wear that? The Momentum cohort wants to tie up Labour tight in front of any ambition re next GE, which is only important in how it impacts on the prime ambition.Rob_downunder said:(Not a first time poster, but couldn't recover my old account since moving to Oz)
Anyway, Labour are completely daft to be recruiting a leader now with at least 4 or 5 years till the next election. I always felt one of the things that killed Miliband's chances was he'd been LOTO for too long (same with Kinnock by 92).
Obviously Corbyn needs to go but they'd be much better off picking an interim leader, Harman/Beckett etc then going through a leadership election in 2/3 years time giving the new leader a decent run up to the next GE.0 -
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
0 -
Off topic but betting and morality related, the 18 month ban on rugby coach Rob Howley for placing bets on rugby matches is way over the top.
He was betting no more than a few pounds a time, stupidly on rugby, with no intent or involvement in match fixing, and lost £4,000. In addition the the panel accepted that the trigger for this betting was the death of Howley's sister.
If the maximum ban for betting with match fixing intent is only 5 years then Howley shouldnt have had more than a suspended fine and education program.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50629124000 -
This is delusional.HYUFD said:
In return for access for US goods to the UK yesCyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:Cyclefree said:rottenborough said:
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.
The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.
Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
0 -
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.0 -
Off topic - does everyone think LadBaby will do it again!?
0 -
And we import a lot of fish, so?SouthamObserver said:
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
The people buying tiny prawns at Asda are in for a shock when we can’t get them but get the whole langoustine catch.alterego said:
And we import a lot of fish, so?SouthamObserver said:
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
0 -
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
0 -
He is, for once, not wrong.HYUFD said:Dominic Cummings criticises the cost of aircraft carriers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
Two carriers were never going to be sustainable. The only way the RN got the 2010 SDSR decision to have one operational reversed was to lie about the crewing requirement citing mythical efficiency improvements from the HMWHS system. This turned out to be complete fucking cobblers and now neither of them can leave port without 200-300 very expensive civvie contractors in addition to their normal RN complement.
We also don't have, and are never likely have, sufficient aircraft and deck qualified crew to constitute two air "wings" anyway.0 -
And you don't think we might regain some of our fishing fleet if there is more for it to fish for?eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.0 -
The point is that currently you can only access by setting up entities in the US. That is costly - in terms of capital, labour and regulation. What UK firms would love to have is the ability to provide services into the US from the UK on a cross-border basis ie without needing to establish a place of business in the US.Endillion said:
Forgive my possible stupidity on this, but don't we already have all the access we're likely to get?Cyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.
Bless.
I have accounts with UK subsidiaries of US banks. There's nothing that I know of that stops UK banking providers setting up shop in the US, providing they comply with the necessary regulations - I think Barclays have an operation there, among others. And a decent chunk of all US property and casualty and insurance ends up in the London Market somehow or another, either directly through Lloyd's or indirectly via the Reinsurance markets.
What else is it that we want?
No way will the US allow this.0 -
Bit of good news to cheer you up if you read the full thing though (I did shortly after he posted it as it happens!) but Cummings regards anthropogenic climate change as a potentially existential threat to mankind, recognises that the solutions to it are "hard" technically and economicaly, and moreover that there is a major incentives/organisational problem with getting mankind to coordinate its response. He has pondered about how this might be resolved using ideas from systems theory (which is quite popular among greenie environmental types, coincidentally).EPG said:
He's not actually running policy. He's a man paid by rich men to fool the poor.Alistair said:
And if you read the text of the blog in question you'll realise Cummings is stark raving bonkersHYUFD said:Dominic Cummings criticises the cost of aircraft carriers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/
This is beyond green ink level madness.
This is two steps away from a blog post stating that 8.735 year cycles explain everything.
Okay, bad news from your perspective is that Cummings is an unhinged crank, his "solutions" won't solve anything, just because he takes climate change really really seriously doesn't mean the head Tories will once big industrial donors / employers start to moan about emission restrictions, blah blah blah. But I urge you to take this glimmer of good news - he's emphatically not a climate-change-denying crank, quite the reverse. I sleep a little sounder for knowing this, albeit just a little.0 -
Why do you think we don’t get it now?Time_to_Leave said:
The people buying tiny prawns at Asda are in for a shock when we can’t get them but get the whole langoustine catch.alterego said:
And we import a lot of fish, so?SouthamObserver said:
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
0 -
Yes, UK fishermen currently make more money selling to European markets than the domestic one.alterego said:
And we import a lot of fish, so?SouthamObserver said:
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
0 -
It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get thereCyclefree said:
This is delusional.HYUFD said:
In return for access for US goods to the UK yesCyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:Cyclefree said:rottenborough said:
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.
The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.
Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.0 -
The Spanish buy them because they love them and we don’t eat them unless we call them scampi. It was a joke....SouthamObserver said:
Why do you think we don’t get it now?Time_to_Leave said:
The people buying tiny prawns at Asda are in for a shock when we can’t get them but get the whole langoustine catch.alterego said:
And we import a lot of fish, so?SouthamObserver said:
The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.No_Offence_Alan said:
And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.eek said:
Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.HYUFD said:
When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will endCyclefree said:isam said:
Following the scriptmoonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I don’t want it to happen
It won’t happen
Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch
No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.
I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.
In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.
The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
We should obviously maintain something like the current fishing arrangements (but with a fig-leaf of a few more domestic licences kept for brits) but the politics won’t allow it. Don’t assume I’m a full fat no deal brexiteer from the user name.
0 -
Malc always channels his inner Emily when discussing those who vote against leaving the UK.....which as we know, is slightly over half Scots who vote....kle4 said:
malcolmg as Emily Thornberrymalcolmg said:
They will sell fishing down the river and those thickos in NE Scotland will be surprisedCyclefree said:
Indeed. Goods.HYUFD said:
Even Mandelson said today Boris could get a basic Canada minus style goods focused trade deal with the EU by next December and he willCyclefree said:
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.rottenborough said:Madness. These people are insane. No Deal to be the law.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?
And what about the high earning services sector? You know, the one which brings in the tax revenues to pay for the spending Boris has promised. Put it this way: if I have to do my work through an Irish company it won’t be the British Treasury getting the tax revenues.
A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.
I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.0 -
Ha sorry you’re turning this into one upmanship! I don’t mean any harm. Obviously I am an enemy, so can’t say anything right, but it is genuinely is tortuous to watch, and if I were a friend I’d ask you to chill out.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.0 -
There was a quote earlier about Rees mogg being the most hated MP in the UK, he's probably second to Duncan Smith, very hard to like.HYUFD said:0 -
You’re not an enemy. You are someone who posts anonymously on a message board who tries to wind me up from time to time in quite a clever, passive-aggressive kind of way. Please don’t consider yourself meaningful to me in anyway.isam said:
Ha sorry you’re turning this into one upmanship! I don’t mean any harm. Obviously I am an enemy, so can’t say anything right, but it is genuinely is tortuous to watch, and if I were a friend I’d ask you to chill out.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
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Oh OK, I'm not being stupid. Good.Cyclefree said:
The point is that currently you can only access by setting up entities in the US. That is costly - in terms of capital, labour and regulation. What UK firms would love to have is the ability to provide services into the US from the UK on a cross-border basis ie without needing to establish a place of business in the US.Endillion said:
Forgive my possible stupidity on this, but don't we already have all the access we're likely to get?Cyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.
Bless.
I have accounts with UK subsidiaries of US banks. There's nothing that I know of that stops UK banking providers setting up shop in the US, providing they comply with the necessary regulations - I think Barclays have an operation there, among others. And a decent chunk of all US property and casualty and insurance ends up in the London Market somehow or another, either directly through Lloyd's or indirectly via the Reinsurance markets.
What else is it that we want?
No way will the US allow this.
Even if the US was willing, that sort of arrangement would surely only be available on a quid pro quo basis. I hope that we'd be unwilling to allow US providers into the UK market on that sort of basis, as well. In particular, US banks have, in my limited experience, little to no concept of TCF.
Also financial services passporting from the EU has created a bunch of problems and I don't see that we need to add to those post-Brexit. Eg Alpha's bankruptcy, which suddenly left swathes of UK taxi drivers uninsured one morning. There was also a Lithuanian professional indemnity provider that turned out to be less than solvent; you may know the details of that one better than I do.
Point is, the last thing we need is our domestic market being swamped by a bunch of substandard providers coming in at low cost to try and eke out market share. I suspect the US feels the same way. Hence my assumption that this was never a realistic goal for the trade negotiations anyway.
And reading back it appears you never indicated it was, and I'm really arguing with HYUFD by proxy. Oh well.0 -
As long as you’re not over 20 that comment was not that embarrassing 🤣SouthamObserver said:
You’re not an enemy. You are someone who posts anonymously on a message board who tries to wind me up from time to time in quite a clever, passive-aggressive kind of way. Please don’t consider yourself meaningful to me in anyway.isam said:
Ha sorry you’re turning this into one upmanship! I don’t mean any harm. Obviously I am an enemy, so can’t say anything right, but it is genuinely is tortuous to watch, and if I were a friend I’d ask you to chill out.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
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Nope, doesn’t work. Night Sam. See you again soon.isam said:
As long as you’re not over 20 that comment was not that embarrassing 🤣SouthamObserver said:
You’re not an enemy. You are someone who posts anonymously on a message board who tries to wind me up from time to time in quite a clever, passive-aggressive kind of way. Please don’t consider yourself meaningful to me in anyway.isam said:
Ha sorry you’re turning this into one upmanship! I don’t mean any harm. Obviously I am an enemy, so can’t say anything right, but it is genuinely is tortuous to watch, and if I were a friend I’d ask you to chill out.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.
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So much for anonymity! 🤣SouthamObserver said:
Nope, doesn’t work. Night Sam. See you again soon.isam said:
As long as you’re not over 20 that comment was not that embarrassing 🤣SouthamObserver said:
You’re not an enemy. You are someone who posts anonymously on a message board who tries to wind me up from time to time in quite a clever, passive-aggressive kind of way. Please don’t consider yourself meaningful to me in anyway.isam said:
Ha sorry you’re turning this into one upmanship! I don’t mean any harm. Obviously I am an enemy, so can’t say anything right, but it is genuinely is tortuous to watch, and if I were a friend I’d ask you to chill out.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. You should try other things. But it’s your decision. If you want to be saddened and exhausted by me, what can I do?isam said:
Sadly compellingSouthamObserver said:
You love it, you slag!isam said:
Ha I’m ok. It’s entertaining too, in a cringe tv kind of waySouthamObserver said:
Ignore it. That way you can stay fresh.isam said:
Yes I gathered thatSouthamObserver said:
I am very comfortable with the fact I think he is a dangerous liar who will happily inflict harm on people if he thinks there’s a vote in it. I wouldn’t worry about me, if I were you.isam said:
Why don’t you try to get comfortable with the fact that you hate him and see everything he does as deliberately evil or stupidly dangerous, and worry about something else?SouthamObserver said:
I’m trying to work out what Johnson is doing. Having been told on here that a big majority will give him the scope to reach a sensible deal with the EU, it seems he’s determined to tie the country’s hands, extend uncertainty and inflict unnecessary damage on the economy. It makes very little sense.moonshine said:Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?
I didn’t say I did worry about you, but actually I do. You constantly torture yourself trying to find ways to deride everything people you disagree with do, it’s quite exhausting to read, let alone live it.0 -
It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.HYUFD said:
It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get thereCyclefree said:
This is delusional.HYUFD said:
In return for access for US goods to the UK yesCyclefree said:
Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??HYUFD said:
The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will doEPG said:
As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.HYUFD said:
A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.Cyclefree said:HYUFD said:Cyclefree said:rottenborough said:
Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
Bless.
The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.
Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?
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This discussion has been closed.