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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT charts
NEW: inspired by @p_surridge & @olhe, I looked at how the class gradient in British politics has been weakening.
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Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Edit: fourth like Boris' term in 2032.
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
Typical journalist -- the fit does not look anything like the data in the top plots.
The FT is statistically illiterate (like all organisations run by Arts & Humanities graduates).
Allowing for a correction factor to account for the percentage of non-white C2DE voters in a constituency, you have to imagine that it might very well be.
C2s than middle class ABC1s now, with Labour's core reduced to the semi skilled and unskilled working class and the unemployed
My expectations for last weeks election was for the Tories to either not get a majority or for the majority to be 70+. The only thing I couldn't work out (and I'm sat in a seat in the broken Red Wall) was whether the switch from Labour was going to be this election or later (and I suspected it was going to be later).
What Boris now needs to do is to provide a reason for people to continue voting for the Tories. That requires delivering hope and the obvious road improvements within the next 5 years. Ideally it also includes HS3 and other improvements but I suspect those are longer term projects.
Well there is for Labour - lots of new houses being bought by Tory voters!
In 2017 there were eleven.
What does concern me about those plots is that in the 1997-2005 data it seems that almost no constituencies are > 30% working class, whereas in 2010-2019 many of them are. I do wonder whether there’s some kind of systemic change in the dataset which is creating most of the observed change in the correlation.
Was the constituency Jo Swinson stood in very close? I can't remember the exact figure.
She was going to receive a peerage anyway
Social mobility.
Sorry, if you don't know Luffbruff you won't get the joke.
If the statistical analysis of the data is sloppy, then probably the data itself has been obtained by sloppy calculations as well.
So, it all needs re-doing by someone competent.
Carshalton
Ceredigion
Leeds NW
Norfolk N
Sheffield Hallam
Southport
And in Ceredigion, Leeds NW and Southport the LibDems are now in a very poor third place.
Worryingly they didnt get them back in 2019 - probably gone forever now.
In Loughborough there is a road called Forest Road. The most 'desirable' housing is perceived to be in the vicinity of Forest Road. Estate Agents' adverts are emblazoned with the phrase "Forest Side" to demonstrate the desirability of the property.
Certain types are therefore keen to make it known to anyone within earshot that they live on the Forest Side. I am equating Nicky Morgan with that type.
There.
Of the two surviving seats Westmoreland was almost lost in 2017 and is heavily dependent on Farron's personal vote.
Which leaves Orkney & Shetland.
The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats).
Weird.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1206657111276638213
*Workers in sectors that are still heavily unionised (e.g. schools, NHS, railways)
*Staff and students in higher education
*The very poor (those of working age who are substantially or entirely dependent on social security)
*Frustrated trapped renters (i.e. people on good incomes who nonetheless can't afford a mortgage in their area, and either can't or won't get around the problem by commuting)
*BAME voters (with the caveat that the Jewish Labour vote has disintegrated for obvious reasons, and the Conservatives may be making some progress in courting the votes of Britons of Indian heritage)
It's a substantial coalition but, except in the poorest parts of the country (e.g. the South Wales valleys and other pockets of the old coalfields,) its strength wanes rapidly outwith the urban cores and the university towns, as can be seen from the current state of the electoral map.
I'm half expecting Zac to get a peerage and continue as environment secretary.
SNP (Amy Callaghan MP) 19,672 (+3,988)
SLD (Jo Swinson) 19,523 (-1,500)
SCon 7,455 (-108)
SLab 4,839 (-2,692)
Grn 916 (new)
Ind 221 (new)
UKIP 208 (new)
SFP 197 (new)
SNP GAIN from SLD, Maj 149
Turnout 80.3% (+1.5)
One can easily imagine Westmorland and Lonsdale going the same way, and that's the very last Lib Dem seat left between Oxford and Edinburgh. One can easily imagine that what's left of the Liberal Democrats could turn, in effect, into two semi-autonomous regional parties: one for Scottish Unionists who can't bear to vote Tory, the other for rich, wet social liberals in London and the Home Counties who find Labour too left-wing.
If I assume that every 1% above 50% Leave in any constituency gives an increase in Tory share of 0.4% (and a reduction of the same amount in Labour share) and the reverse effect in Remain constituencies, then the result is a Tory majority of 82 seats.
That is just fitting after the event and not much good for betting purposes. But I should have made some allowance. Some people were building models that were entirely based on Leave/Remain % .
North East Somerset is an interesting example - it's on top of a former coalfield and encircles Bath University.
I also wonder what the effect of the word 'Bollocks' was. We already knew the Lib Dems were committed to Remain - there's little upside to being repeatedly crude about it. But even in 2019 there's a not-insignificant number of voters who take a dim view of that sort of language.
And I'm just trolling you!
Assuming this is genuine, this is the equivalent of the Trump supporters who hate Obama Care, but are worried they will lose their affordable health care.
More Conservative votes but fewer Conservative seats while fewer LibDem votes but more LibDem seats.
These things can happen but the idea that I started is I think interesting ie that there doesn't seem to be any bedrock of LibDem support but more of a sprouting up of support here and there and so is always vulnerable.
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?