Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost:
Carshalton Ceredigion Leeds NW Norfolk N Sheffield Hallam Southport
And in Ceredigion, Leeds NW and Southport the LibDems are now in a very poor third place.
Yet the LibDems gained 1.3m more votes than 2017 (and lost 1 seat). The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats). Weird.
Apologies if I missed it but did you do a post mortem on your model ?
Yes. The weakness was that I assumed the Leave/Remain effect was "baked in" the base 2017 results on which my model depended. But it was a much more dominant feature this time and I should have separately allowed for it.
If I assume that every 1% above 50% Leave in any constituency gives an increase in Tory share of 0.4% (and a reduction of the same amount in Labour share) and the reverse effect in Remain constituencies, then the result is a Tory majority of 82 seats.
That is just fitting after the event and not much good for betting purposes. But I should have made some allowance. Some people were building models that were entirely based on Leave/Remain % .
Well done on having a go anyway. It seems safe to assume that the Leave/Remain effect will not figure in the 2024 election.
However, the demographics underlying Leave/Remain distribution surely will.
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
Laura K said the other day that NM would go to the Lords and become Leader there. As for her vacated ministry, do we really need a "culture secretary" in the cabinet? Someone to speak up for artists, writers and actors when major decisions are taken? The Arts Minister used to be a minor factotum - a Gilbert and Sullivan invention if ever there was one. I'm not sure we need someone to speak up for the Duke of Lancaster either. And what oh what happened to the Lord Privy Seal?
We need someone to sort the BBC out.
Laura K is really good. The BBC has its faults, but she isn't one of them.
Her skill at repeating verbatim what a 'senior Conservative source' has told her is unparalleled.
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
Thornberry needs to retire. By highlighting Caroline's 'stupid' comment not only did she use bad language that needed a 'blip' when played, but announced it to the whole world who really would not think it surprising
Anyway it should end her career, so well done Caroline
And as for going to court I suspect she is trying to force an apology which I believe Caroline has told her to get on her bike
Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
It is temporary until the major cabinet re-organisation in early february after we have left the EU
She was going to receive a peerage anyway
Lady Morgan of The Forest Side?
Sorry, if you don't know Luffbruff you won't get the joke.
Loughborough Junction station is not in Loughborough
You can say that about any station with Junction in the name.
It's in South London, nowhere near Leicestershire.
Dr P, as a fellow owner of a Baker, I am fully conversant with railway geography.
And I'm just trolling you!
And Clapham Junction is in Battersea!
In other trainspotting news, Reading, Luton Airport Parkway and Welwyn Garden City have made it onto the London Contactless ticketing area map. Reading even appears on the Tube Map by virtue of TfL taking over some stopping services.
Also, the West Midlands Metro has been extended from Grand Central to Birmingham Library via the Town Hall.
Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
Laura K said the other day that NM would go to the Lords and become Leader there. As for her vacated ministry, do we really need a "culture secretary" in the cabinet? Someone to speak up for artists, writers and actors when major decisions are taken? The Arts Minister used to be a minor factotum - a Gilbert and Sullivan invention if ever there was one. I'm not sure we need someone to speak up for the Duke of Lancaster either. And what oh what happened to the Lord Privy Seal?
We need someone to sort the BBC out.
Laura K is really good. The BBC has its faults, but she isn't one of them.
Her skill at repeating verbatim what a 'senior Conservative source' has told her is unparalleled.
Shouldn't that be "... what the senior Conservative source has told her..."?
Looking at the first and especially the third chart, you have to wonder whether the next couple of electoral cycles might see an outright inversion: class becoming a predictor again, but with the working class vote leaning Tory and the middle class vote leaning Labour?
Allowing for a correction factor to account for the percentage of non-white C2DE voters in a constituency, you have to imagine that it might very well be.
I'm pretty certain that big a portion of the middle class vote for LP will desert if they stand on a manifesto like the last one which they will unless Momentum are defeated decisively. The motivation to get a second referendum will have gone and the potential destruction of their affluence will frighten them! They will accept small increases in tax but not sky high interest rates, inflation, mass unemployment and collapse of housing market. Unless Labour purge Momentum it will take a Weimar Republic level of economic disruption under Boris to give them a chance. Labour are truly at the cross-roads.
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Once you are reliant for your income onyour assets rather than your skills, you tend to look rather more dimly on anything which could hammer the stock market. Andyour ability to take the long view is rather less.
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost..
It's amazing as youd assume anywhere retained in 2015 must be the clingiest of LD seats, as close to heartland as they get. But no. 4 were lost in 2017 I think, and two more..
Gosh it was a dragging whine wasn't it? I felt my remaining sympathy being sucked out of me.
Nor introspection, and viewing the Lib Dems - with centuries of history behind them!! - as pretty much just a messianic vehicle for Stop Brexit.
... back to the dark days of 2015 when the party suffered their cataclysmic post-coalition crash. They lost 66% of their vote and all but 8 of their 49 MPs.
Those voters who stuck with the Lib Dems in 2015 were by definition among the very loyalest supporters the party had, and in 2016 around one third of them voted for Leave. Ashcroft's polling in Why not explore and rediscover what those grand driving values might be, rather than hinting at one in five of your voters, even maybe one in three of your potential and previous electoral coalition you hope to build on, that you think they're under-educated racist insufficiently-diverse easily-conned idiots.
(I admit: partly angry because I have at times in the past been a Lib Dem voter, have always been a very open-minded swing voter, and am an absolutely passionate Leaver. And if it's necessary to wave my papers at the commissar to prove my political worthiness as part of their new coalition of the liberal educated urban professionals, I've got multiple degree certificates I can shove in their face - but I don't weight my worth by them nor wrap my identity politics around them.)
Good post, with which I agree. I also wonder what the effect of the word 'Bollocks' was. We already knew the Lib Dems were committed to Remain - there's little upside to being repeatedly crude about it. But even in 2019 there's a not-insignificant number of voters who take a dim view of that sort of language.
Yes and less because of the language as a rude word but more the sheer brutal kick in the teeth of the millions who'd voted for Brexit. It shows a particular contempt for democracy which infuriated me and I voted Remain. Swinson really suffers from an arrogant sense of her own superiority which was especially irritating when she played the sex card over the debates.
Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
Laura K said the other day that NM would go to the Lords and become Leader there. As for her vacated ministry, do we really need a "culture secretary" in the cabinet? Someone to speak up for artists, writers and actors when major decisions are taken? The Arts Minister used to be a minor factotum - a Gilbert and Sullivan invention if ever there was one. I'm not sure we need someone to speak up for the Duke of Lancaster either. And what oh what happened to the Lord Privy Seal?
We need someone to sort the BBC out.
Laura K is really good. The BBC has its faults, but she isn't one of them.
Her skill at repeating verbatim what a 'senior Conservative source' has told her is unparalleled.
Pretty sure verbatim is how you're meant to quote a source.
This was my reaction to Swinson's resignation speech, which (like her 2019 campaign) shafted a significant group of 2015 Lib Dem voters, who one might also have assumed to be pretty hard-core as Lib Dem voters go!
Gosh it was a dragging whine wasn't it? I felt my remaining sympathy being sucked out of me.
Nor introspection, and viewing the Lib Dems - with centuries of history behind them!! - as pretty much just a messianic vehicle for Stop Brexit.
This really shouldn't be news for the Lib Dem leadership because they have all seen this data, their analysts and strategists must have pored over it, but think back to the dark days of 2015 when the party suffered their cataclysmic post-coalition crash. They lost 66% of their vote and all but 8 of their 49 MPs.
Those voters who stuck with the Lib Dems in 2015 were by definition among the very loyalest supporters the party had, and in 2016 around one third of them voted for Leave. Ashcroft's polling in "Well, you did ask" reckons 31%, yougov reckon 30% here. Even among the 2017 Lib Dem voting coalition, 20% were Leave voters. If you make it The Remain Party then you cutting links with hundreds of thousands of people who vote for you despite disagreeing with what's become one of your core principles. There must be something else in the party than that one cause alone, something pretty good and deep and visceral, something connected with your great traditions, otherwise those people wouldn't keep on supporting you. And it's a single-issue cause that, at least in its current incarnation, is rapidly hurtling towards irrelevance.
Why not explore and rediscover what those grand driving values might be, rather than hinting at one in five of your voters, even maybe one in three of your potential and previous electoral coalition you hope to build on, that you think they're under-educated racist insufficiently-diverse easily-conned idiots.
(I admit: partly angry because I have at times in the past been a Lib Dem voter, have always been a very open-minded swing voter, and am an absolutely passionate Leaver. And if it's necessary to wave my papers at the commissar to prove my political worthiness as part of their new coalition of the liberal educated urban professionals, I've got multiple degree certificates I can shove in their face - but I don't weight my worth by them nor wrap my identity politics around them.)
Let’s face it , the electorate just don’t deserve the Liberal Democrat’s.
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost:
Carshalton Ceredigion Leeds NW Norfolk N Sheffield Hallam Southport
And in Ceredigion, Leeds NW and Southport the LibDems are now in a very poor third place.
Yet the LibDems gained 1.3m more votes than 2017 (and lost 1 seat). The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats). Weird.
Apologies if I missed it but did you do a post mortem on your model ?
Yes. The weakness was that I assumed the Leave/Remain effect was "baked in" the base 2017 results on which my model depended. But it was a much more dominant feature this time and I should have separately allowed for it.
If I assume that every 1% above 50% Leave in any constituency gives an increase in Tory share of 0.4% (and a reduction of the same amount in Labour share) and the reverse effect in Remain constituencies, then the result is a Tory majority of 82 seats.
That is just fitting after the event and not much good for betting purposes. But I should have made some allowance. Some people were building models that were entirely based on Leave/Remain % .
Well done on having a go anyway. It seems safe to assume that the Leave/Remain effect will not figure in the 2024 election.
However, the demographics underlying Leave/Remain distribution surely will.
True, but either Brexit will address the cause of Leavers' discontent (v unlikely imo) or they'll come to realise that they were sold a pup... at which point Labour's left-wing radicalism might appear more attractive.
Looking at the first and especially the third chart, you have to wonder whether the next couple of electoral cycles might see an outright inversion: class becoming a predictor again, but with the working class vote leaning Tory and the middle class vote leaning Labour?
Allowing for a correction factor to account for the percentage of non-white C2DE voters in a constituency, you have to imagine that it might very well be.
I'm pretty certain that big a portion of the middle class vote for LP will desert if they stand on a manifesto like the last one which they will unless Momentum are defeated decisively. The motivation to get a second referendum will have gone and the potential destruction of their affluence will frighten them! They will accept small increases in tax but not sky high interest rates, inflation, mass unemployment and collapse of housing market. Unless Labour purge Momentum it will take a Weimar Republic level of economic disruption under Boris to give them a chance. Labour are truly at the cross-roads.
A very good point. It's not just the Liberal Democrats who find their position complicated by the death of Remain.
Is Thornberry really going to take Flint to court?
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
I'd expect Flint to drop what she said after a little while. True or not damage has been done. Thornberry acts like she would say something like that.
I expect she says something of the kind every day, and twice on a Sunday. But Caroline Flint got it off someone else, so she can't prove it was said. Unless this other person steps forward, if Thornberry persists she will surely have to offer a mealy mouthed apology.
Is Thornberry really going to take Flint to court?
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
I'd expect Flint to drop what she said after a little while. True or not damage has been done. Thornberry acts like she would say something like that.
I expect she says something of the kind every day, and twice on a Sunday. But Caroline Flint got it off someone else, so she can't prove it was said. Unless this other person steps forward, if Thornberry persists she will surely have to offer a mealy mouthed apology.
If the other person were going to come forward theyd probably have done do already. If still in the commons they wont want to have their fingerprints on the knife.
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost:
Yet the LibDems gained 1.3m more votes than 2017 (and lost 1 seat). The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats). Weird.
Would you like to give the vote and seat changes between 2015 and 2017.
Why?
Because didn't the opposite happen in 2017 ?
More Conservative votes but fewer Conservative seats while fewer LibDem votes but more LibDem seats.
These things can happen but the idea that I started is I think interesting ie that there doesn't seem to be any bedrock of LibDem support but more of a sprouting up of support here and there and so is always vulnerable.
A lot depends on the activist base in an area. In Richmond Park there were hundreds of activists delivering, canvassing and knocking up, and lots of LibDem councillors. This takes years to build up. It can also spill over into adjacent areas.
In a totally barren area a single activist can build a base over a couple of years to get elected as a local councillor. It is possible to personally knock on every door in a ward and introduce yourself, and recruit half a dozen supporters to deliver leaflets and make your case. But you can't do that for a constituency. It is too big. The activist base has to evolve and voters have to get used to the idea that voting LibDem is not a wasted vote.
But the activist base can become demoralised and stop being active if a key figure departs, and it can shrivel and die.
It will be interesting to know how many of those the public could name. Not only do they now have bugger all MPs, they don't even have the likes of Uncle Vice or Norman Lamb.
I love those "do you recognise this man/woman?" questions that pollsters sometimes ask. Tend to prick many a politician's ego. (As do the politics rounds on Pointless, if we're on the subject of TV shows.)
Even quite prominent cabinet ministers that we regard as well-known faces are often obscure to the bulk of the electorate. To put things in context, on average roughly 4 million people watch the BBC News at Ten and 2 milllion the ITV equivalent. Newsnight gets about 300k, Peston about half a million. Not sure about Channel 4 news since they give the "reach" figure rather than how many people on average watch each broadcast, but they reckon something like 7 million people watch at least 15 minutes of C4 news each month - I think it's under 1 million people per broadcast.
I would be surprised if any of those Lib Dems bar Tim Farron are recognisable to more than 20%, or even 10%, of the population.
That is a valid point. Most of the public can't name more than a handful or two of politicians and their current correct position.
I do think Cable was one that people do know.
Yes this was a good point. Cable had recognition. The Lib Dems have usually (I'll stick my neck out - I think even "always") had someone, even when they were down to taxicab counts of MPs, who stood out on the national stage and broke through to the national consciousness. My suspicion is that Tim Farron is going to be pretty quiet as ex-leader for obvious reasons, and aside from him they're pretty much a bunch of nobodie. And it's difficult to generate additional coverage when your numbers are so low, e.g. fewer slots on panel shows. So this doesn't bode great guns for them.
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Once you are reliant for your income onyour assets rather than your skills, you tend to look rather more dimly on anything which could hammer the stock market. Andyour ability to take the long view is rather less.
The vast majority of people over 65 do not get their income from the stock market, just saying.
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Surely that is a myth. The age split in voting was much less marked 50 years ago, therefore yours wasn't a particularly left wing generation, though that was certainly the vibe.
Anecdata, as I left the hospital this evening, I followed two beds being moved, by 4 porters. One pair were singing "Labour, Labour, Labour" almost like a football chant, with the other pair giving similar banter back about voting for Boris. Interestingly the pair singing for Boris, said that he wouldn't next time now that Corbyn had gone.
It was all in good spirits. You can guess which pair were young, and which pair were old.
Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
Laura K said the other day that NM would go to the Lords and become Leader there. As for her vacated ministry, do we really need a "culture secretary" in the cabinet? Someone to speak up for artists, writers and actors when major decisions are taken? The Arts Minister used to be a minor factotum - a Gilbert and Sullivan invention if ever there was one. I'm not sure we need someone to speak up for the Duke of Lancaster either. And what oh what happened to the Lord Privy Seal?
We need someone to sort the BBC out.
Laura K is really good. The BBC has its faults, but she isn't one of them.
Her skill at repeating verbatim what a 'senior Conservative source' has told her is unparalleled.
A trait demanded by both sides when it’s their words (though I’d grant that JC was talking about on the record stuff rather than briefing)
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
Surely completely unnecessary now he has a solid majority.
Yes it is. So either he really wants no deal and is upfront about it, or hes about to piss off some ERGers and is getting in early to show he is still their man,
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
Most of the population actually lives from Swansea to Newport.
Also, Labour's results in South Wales were surprisingly good -- they are +1 wrt 2015.
Was there any constituency which had a majority of under 100 ?
In 2017 there were eleven.
Fermanagh And South Tyrone - Just 57 Votes.
Gildernew's majority was 53 in 2001, and just 4 (yes FOUR) in 2010.
Yes, that's correct and that's the reason I'll be playing time Tom Elliott next time around as he's the most experienced candidate and will probably be slightly over priced again.
Also the fact that I think he'll win (if he's still around).
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Once you are reliant for your income onyour assets rather than your skills, you tend to look rather more dimly on anything which could hammer the stock market. Andyour ability to take the long view is rather less.
The vast majority of people over 65 do not get their income from the stock market, just saying.
But with the collapse of final salary pensions, increasingly they will. Come to think of it, the near-retired are probably the even more significant group here: those gearing up to buy annuities.
Why enshrine it in law? BoZo is the only one who could breach it, is it just that he doesn't trust himself to be honest?
Presumably to stop any Benn-style manoeuvres and to stop any debate about whether or not to extend the transition, which was one of the items on the EU’s To Do List for the initial talks.
Surely completely unnecessary now he has a solid majority.
Not just unnecessary, also it completely fails to work, because if he wants to postpone to a later date he can use his solid majority to unenshrine the previous one.
This is one of the weird things about power: If you're very powerful, you lose a useful and important ability that everybody else has, namely the ability to make binding commitments.
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
Though there is the small issue of the WTO resolution panels now being inquorate. So now the WTO is nearly toothless in enforcing anything. We are entering a 1930s type international tariff war, without the benefit of Empire trade.
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
Only 213 votes in Alyn and Deeside saved them from complete wipeout apart from the valleys
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
Only 213 votes in Alyn and Deeside saved them from complete wipeout apart from the valleys
Apparently the majority was just 17 votes the first time they counted it. A bundle of Labour votes was discovered in the wrong pile during the recount.
Was there any constituency which had a majority of under 100 ?
In 2017 there were eleven.
Fermanagh And South Tyrone - Just 57 Votes.
Gildernew's majority was 53 in 2001, and just 4 (yes FOUR) in 2010.
Yes, that's correct and that's the reason I'll be playing time Tom Elliott next time around as he's the most experienced candidate and will probably be slightly over priced again.
Also the fact that I think he'll win (if he's still around).
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost..
It's amazing as youd assume anywhere retained in 2015 must be the clingiest of LD seats, as close to heartland as they get. But no. 4 were lost in 2017 I think, and two more..
Gosh it was a dragging whine wasn't it? I felt my remaining sympathy being sucked out of me.
Nor introspection, and viewing the Lib Dems - with centuries of history behind them!! - as pretty much just a messianic vehicle for Stop Brexit.
... back to the dark days of 2015 when the party suffered their cataclysmic post-coalition crash. They lost 66% of their vote and all but 8 of their 49 MPs.
Those voters who stuck with the Lib Dems in 2015 were by definition among the very loyalest supporters the party had, and in 2016 around one third of them voted for Leave. Ashcroft's polling in Why not explore and rediscover what those grand driving values might be, rather than hinting at one in five of your voters, even maybe one in three of your potential and previous electoral coalition you hope to build on, that you think they're under-educated racist insufficiently-diverse easily-conned idiots.
(I admit: partly angry because I have at times in the past been a Lib Dem voter, have always been a very open-minded swing voter, and am an absolutely passionate Leaver. And if it's necessary to wave my papers at the commissar to prove my political worthiness as part of their new coalition of the liberal educated urban professionals, I've got multiple degree certificates I can shove in their face - but I don't weight my worth by them nor wrap my identity politics around them.)
Good post, with which I agree. I also wonder what the effect of the word 'Bollocks' was. We already knew the Lib Dems were committed to Remain - there's little upside to being repeatedly crude about it. But even in 2019 there's a not-insignificant number of voters who take a dim view of that sort of language.
Yes and less because of the language as a rude word but more the sheer brutal kick in the teeth of the millions who'd voted for Brexit. It shows a particular contempt for democracy which infuriated me and I voted Remain. Swinson really suffers from an arrogant sense of her own superiority which was especially irritating when she played the sex card over the debates.
It fails both ways; it's a pretty mimsy and half hearted stab at being potty mouthed. "All brexiteers are complete and utter f*cking c*nts" would have commanded more respect.
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
Most of the population actually lives from Swansea to Newport.
Also, Labour's results in South Wales were surprisingly good -- they are +1 wrt 2015.
Even here, they have trended in two directions: the university cities have swung to Labour, while non-university Newport and the Gwent Valleys have, I think, gone the other way.
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost:
Carshalton Ceredigion Leeds NW Norfolk N Sheffield Hallam Southport
And in Ceredigion, Leeds NW and Southport the LibDems are now in a very poor third place.
Yet the LibDems gained 1.3m more votes than 2017 (and lost 1 seat). The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats). Weird.
Apologies if I missed it but did you do a post mortem on your model ?
Yes. The weakness was that I assumed the Leave/Remain effect was "baked in" the base 2017 results on which my model depended. But it was a much more dominant feature this time and I should have separately allowed for it.
If I assume that every 1% above 50% Leave in any constituency gives an increase in Tory share of 0.4% (and a reduction of the same amount in Labour share) and the reverse effect in Remain constituencies, then the result is a Tory majority of 82 seats.
That is just fitting after the event and not much good for betting purposes. But I should have made some allowance. Some people were building models that were entirely based on Leave/Remain % .
Fair play for having a go. Most modelling of the past to then predict the future falls down on the unknowables and wrong assumptions. It easy to be wise and say your model was producing hokey looking results, but that is only easy now, with total 20:20 hindsight. Working out what will be the next elections true assumptions will be the key to your betting fortune...
Second as I suspect Labour will always be from now on (at best)
Updated due to typical TSE cheating
Your not expecting labour to ever be third or fourth, are you?
Although I'd like to see 3-4 parties battle instead of the same old boring main two.
I expect the Labour party to eventually die. It's lost Scotland it's now starting to lose the North and Midlands in a way that it really can't recover from (50 years of bad administration of councils is going to take a while to recover from if the Tory replacements are even vaguely competent).
Don't forget Wales. Labour basically only exists there from Swansea to Newport, through the valleys. Gone elsewhere. If Labour has lost Wales.....check for a pulse.
Most of the population actually lives from Swansea to Newport.
Also, Labour's results in South Wales were surprisingly good -- they are +1 wrt 2015.
Even here, they have trended in two directions: the university cities have swung to Labour, while non-university Newport and the Gwent Valleys have, I think, gone the other way.
That is true. But, FPTP flatters to deceive and Labour are up one in their 2015 performance.
The next Welsh Assembly elections could be tricky -- Labour's team in Wales is now weak, and the South Walian voters are readier to ditch Labour in Assembly elections.
Was there any constituency which had a majority of under 100 ?
In 2017 there were eleven.
Fermanagh And South Tyrone - Just 57 Votes.
Gildernew's majority was 53 in 2001, and just 4 (yes FOUR) in 2010.
Yes, that's correct and that's the reason I'll be playing time Tom Elliott next time around as he's the most experienced candidate and will probably be slightly over priced again.
Also the fact that I think he'll win (if he's still around).
Not if the SDLP decide to against standing.
I think the SDLP will stand next time as they usually do in this constituency.
If the SDLP didn't field a candidate most of the votes would probably go to Alliance.
Young people have always voted Labour. Maybe it's a bit more pronounced now than it used to be but it isn't huge news.
I think tuition fees have helped give a huge push to Labour (& the SNP in Scotland) among University students.
Yes, it's interesting that my generation (I'm 70 in Feb) was very left-wing in its time, but I'm now unusual in being further left than I was 20 years ago. I know the old adage about heart and head, but I wonder if that drift to the right will be seen again. The key nowadays seems to be that people tend to switch sharply right when they retire (Labour is still competitive up to that point). They may retain their social liberalism (you don't really find many pensioners grumping about gays etc.) but taking a step back from the employment market changes their outlook.
Most people become more right wing as they get older and richer. It's more pronounced with the boomers because they have accumulated more wealth than previous generations and enjoyed relatively long periods of old age in which they are in good health but at leisure. In all likelihood my generation will accumulate less wealth on average and enjoy a shorter retirement, and do I expect we will not become quite so right wing. I also think that the defining feature of the post war generation was their embrace of individualism as they rejected the conformity and suffocating solidarity of their parents' generation. Initially that individualism seemed left wing, but as they have become older it has become more about materialism. I reckon that my generation is too apathetic to become really right wing as we get older, but I bet the Millennials will be right bastards when they're old. They seem to share the boomers' mentality that everything is about them.
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
No. You are behind the times. The WTO appeals body has just been closed down. Thanks to the US. Which means there is only really arbitrator globally now and it ain't us. Or the EU.
How depressingly predictable and, note, contrary to the assurances given by the Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland QC.
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
Though there is the small issue of the WTO resolution panels now being inquorate. So now the WTO is nearly toothless in enforcing anything. We are entering a 1930s type international tariff war, without the benefit of Empire trade.
Loving Johnson’s tack to the centre. This is, of course, the sheerest stupidity. But he has been given the green light to do it. We’ll see whether the consequences are appreciated. https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206702137020997633?s=21
Anyone else noticed that of the eight seats won by the LibDems in 2015 six have now been lost:
Carshalton Ceredigion Leeds NW Norfolk N Sheffield Hallam Southport
And in Ceredigion, Leeds NW and Southport the LibDems are now in a very poor third place.
Yet the LibDems gained 1.3m more votes than 2017 (and lost 1 seat). The Tories gained just 0.3m more votes than 2017 (yet gained 48 extra seats). Weird.
Apologies if I missed it but did you do a post mortem on your model ?
Yes. The weakness was that I assumed the Leave/Remain effect was "baked in" the base 2017 results on which my model depended. But it was a much more dominant feature this time and I should have separately allowed for it.
If I assume that every 1% above 50% Leave in any constituency gives an increase in Tory share of 0.4% (and a reduction of the same amount in Labour share) and the reverse effect in Remain constituencies, then the result is a Tory majority of 82 seats.
That is just fitting after the event and not much good for betting purposes. But I should have made some allowance. Some people were building models that were entirely based on Leave/Remain % .
Fair play for having a go. Most modelling of the past to then predict the future falls down on the unknowables and wrong assumptions. It easy to be wise and say your model was producing hokey looking results, but that is only easy now, with total 20:20 hindsight. Working out what will be the next elections true assumptions will be the key to your betting fortune...
Flavible did well. Got the Euros pretty close too.
Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.
They are worried she might give RBL a run for their rubles.
Yep, she is in every way superior even if find her rather sanctimonius at times.
But she is not one of them, and she has opposed Corbyn in the past. So as such they are back to redefining what is and isn't acceptable behaviour and what is and isn't allowed, all based on who said it rather than what was said.
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.
"Within days of a historic impeachment vote in the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump matches his best job approval rating ever"
So already Trump is beating Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg after the impeachment proceedings and closer to Sanders than he was to Hillary with only Biden still maintaining a clear lead against him
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.
Looks like he will be up against RLB, which is...an upgrade?
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.
He is not up against anyone for five years with an 80 majority and all backing brexit
As Mandelson said today and HYUFD has just commented a basic Canada deal is possible by December 2020
It will certainly focus minds and of course a trade deal with US is likely to be in place by the end of next year
The consequences of a bare-bones Canada Deal will be extremely severe. And will certainly concentrate a lot of minds in any number of businesses. A trade deal with the US will not come close to undoing the damage. Johnson’s hubris looks like being a immensely dangerous thing.
There was a suggestion on Sky that Team Corbyn will ensure that the rules mean there is a cut-off for membership who can vote and it will most likely be before the GE. This will be done to ensure it shuts out any moderates thinking about rejoining to get a more centrist leader.
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.
He is not up against anyone for five years with an 80 majority and all backing brexit
He is up against the EU27. And businesses that are responsible to shareholders, not voters.
Is Thornberry really going to take Flint to court?
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
Not if you still count Flint as a politician
Hey, I like Flinty!
On the subject of Johnson and his new Brexit pledge: if I was PM for a day and could pass one law, "banning future PMs from enshrining policy pledges in law" would be a strong candidate. This is even dumber than the NHS funding increase pledge. What exactly happens if you break it?
Mind, in this case, Benn/Cooper/Letwin et al clearly started the arms race, so I hope they feel good about themselves if we do end up crashing out. Presumably, as others have pointed out, this is largely to further concentrate minds on the EU side.
Is Thornberry really going to take Flint to court?
Is Thornberry trying to win the Jacob Rees-Mogg Award for the Most Disliked Politician in the country?
Now 80 on BF. Pretty sure she was around 8 a few days ago.
That only tells us one thing, stay away lol.
Why has Flint depth charged Thornberry in this way? Can a Kremlinologist advise?
Bitter about losing her seat? Just a guess.
Supporting BoZo didn't do her much good, did it?
We dont know. Might be she would have lost by even more. And, crazy thought, maybe she actually thought it was the best thing to do in the circumstances anyway?
It is already isn't it, if the WA passes and then no agreement in time?
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
It’s hubris. He thinks he can do as he wishes with no consequences. But he’s not up against Corbyn now.
He is not up against anyone for five years with an 80 majority and all backing brexit
He is up against the EU27. And businesses that are responsible to shareholders, not voters.
Not to mention reality. Politicians who live by spin and rhetoric come unstuck when hard economics gets in the way. Sadly they tend to take their countries with them into the abyss.
There was a suggestion on Sky that Team Corbyn will ensure that the rules mean there is a cut-off for membership who can vote and it will most likely be before the GE. This will be done to ensure it shuts out any moderates thinking about rejoining to get a more centrist leader.
Even as people are being encouraged to rejoin to help the party rebuild. Genius.
As Mandelson said today and HYUFD has just commented a basic Canada deal is possible by December 2020
It will certainly focus minds and of course a trade deal with US is likely to be in place by the end of next year
The consequences of a bare-bones Canada Deal will be extremely severe. And will certainly concentrate a lot of minds in any number of businesses. A trade deal with the US will not come close to undoing the damage. Johnson’s hubris looks like being a immensely dangerous thing.
A Canada style Deal which leaves the single market and ends free movement and leaves the customs union and enables our own trade deals is what Vote Leave promised and what will now happen
Comments
Anyway it should end her career, so well done Caroline
And as for going to court I suspect she is trying to force an apology which I believe Caroline has told her to get on her bike
In other trainspotting news, Reading, Luton Airport Parkway and Welwyn Garden City have made it onto the London Contactless ticketing area map. Reading even appears on the Tube Map by virtue of TfL taking over some stopping services.
Also, the West Midlands Metro has been extended from Grand Central to Birmingham Library via the Town Hall.
That's all the candidates out except jess phillips surely?
https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1206681353686863879?s=19
https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1206681549300797442?s=19
The Red Lion:
https://order-order.com/2019/12/16/rayner-long-bailey-dream-ticket-rumours/
And visa versa of course.
In a totally barren area a single activist can build a base over a couple of years to get elected as a local councillor. It is possible to personally knock on every door in a ward and introduce yourself, and recruit half a dozen supporters to deliver leaflets and make your case. But you can't do that for a constituency. It is too big. The activist base has to evolve and voters have to get used to the idea that voting LibDem is not a wasted vote.
But the activist base can become demoralised and stop being active if a key figure departs, and it can shrivel and die.
Anecdata, as I left the hospital this evening, I followed two beds being moved, by 4 porters. One pair were singing "Labour, Labour, Labour" almost like a football chant, with the other pair giving similar banter back about voting for Boris. Interestingly the pair singing for Boris, said that he wouldn't next time now that Corbyn had gone.
It was all in good spirits. You can guess which pair were young, and which pair were old.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1206693158924496898
The reputable IBT/TIPP poll had these numbers:
https://www.investors.com/gdpr-agreement/?back_url=https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-leads-democrats-president-trump-tops-elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-ibd-tipp-poll/
Trump/Biden 45-50
Trump/Sanders 47-48
Trump/Warren 49-45
Trump/Buttigieg 46-44
Trump/Bloomberg 47-46
Even against Biden, Trump is on the lower limit of victory (which is thought to be a 5% loss in the Popular Vote).
And Quinnipiac, which is Trump's most difficult and stable pollster:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3652
"Within days of a historic impeachment vote in the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump matches his best job approval rating ever"
https://www.indy100.com/video/politics/jeremy-corbyn-i-ask-our-media,-as-good-journalists,-to-just-report-what-we-say-Jz4LHWIp
Still possible he goes for a closer deal and expects opposition to back it as no deal will be law but more likely hes going for what he intends and hed rather no deal than mess around for years.
I thought he wanted no deal earlier this year and was wrong, but I think he wants whatever gets brexit done quicker. If he cannot get a deal he likes quickly he can therefore give up rather than extend.
Time for companies to start brushing up on WTO tariffs, if they haven’t already.
An Irish company for me to carry on doing my business with EU clients.
Also, Labour's results in South Wales were surprisingly good -- they are +1 wrt 2015.
Also the fact that I think he'll win (if he's still around).
This is one of the weird things about power: If you're very powerful, you lose a useful and important ability that everybody else has, namely the ability to make binding commitments.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/05/wtos-trade-dispute-appeal-system-could-end-dec-heres-what-you-need-know/
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974
twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1206479580619583488
It easy to be wise and say your model was producing hokey looking results, but that is only easy now, with total 20:20 hindsight.
Working out what will be the next elections true assumptions will be the key to your betting fortune...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832
The next Welsh Assembly elections could be tricky -- Labour's team in Wales is now weak, and the South Walian voters are readier to ditch Labour in Assembly elections.
If the SDLP didn't field a candidate most of the votes would probably go to Alliance.
I also think that the defining feature of the post war generation was their embrace of individualism as they rejected the conformity and suffocating solidarity of their parents' generation. Initially that individualism seemed left wing, but as they have become older it has become more about materialism. I reckon that my generation is too apathetic to become really right wing as we get older, but I bet the Millennials will be right bastards when they're old. They seem to share the boomers' mentality that everything is about them.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7796581/PMs-maverick-aide-Dominic-Cummings-overhaul-wasteful-defence-spending.html#comments
How encouraging.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206702137020997633?s=21
Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
But she is not one of them, and she has opposed Corbyn in the past. So as such they are back to redefining what is and isn't acceptable behaviour and what is and isn't allowed, all based on who said it rather than what was said.
It will certainly focus minds and of course a trade deal with US is likely to be in place by the end of next year
On the subject of Johnson and his new Brexit pledge: if I was PM for a day and could pass one law, "banning future PMs from enshrining policy pledges in law" would be a strong candidate. This is even dumber than the NHS funding increase pledge. What exactly happens if you break it?
Mind, in this case, Benn/Cooper/Letwin et al clearly started the arms race, so I hope they feel good about themselves if we do end up crashing out. Presumably, as others have pointed out, this is largely to further concentrate minds on the EU side.