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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    HYUFD said:
    There was a quote earlier about Rees mogg being the most hated MP in the UK, he's probably second to Duncan Smith, very hard to like.

    Faiza - based on the interview I saw with Jack Straw - is ignorant, delusional and rude. No loss at all to Parliament.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:


    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-Northism became the state religion, there are about seventeen big exporting factories and everything else in the North is funded by HMG via tax revenues from services.

    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    Forgive my possible stupidity on this, but don't we already have all the access we're likely to get?

    I have accounts with UK subsidiaries of US banks. There's nothing that I know of that stops UK banking providers setting up shop in the US, providing they comply with the necessary regulations - I think Barclays have an operation there, among others. And a decent chunk of all US property and casualty and insurance ends up in the London Market somehow or another, either directly through Lloyd's or indirectly via the Reinsurance markets.

    What else is it that we want?
    The point is that currently you can only access by setting up entities in the US. That is costly - in terms of capital, labour and regulation. What UK firms would love to have is the ability to provide services into the US from the UK on a cross-border basis ie without needing to establish a place of business in the US.

    No way will the US allow this.
    Oh OK, I'm not being stupid. Good.

    Even if the US was willing, that sort of arrangement would surely only be available on a quid pro quo basis. I hope that we'd be unwilling to allow US providers into the UK market on that sort of basis, as well. In particular, US banks have, in my limited experience, little to no concept of TCF.

    Also financial services passporting from the EU has created a bunch of problems and I don't see that we need to add to those post-Brexit. Eg Alpha's bankruptcy, which suddenly left swathes of UK taxi drivers uninsured one morning. There was also a Lithuanian professional indemnity provider that turned out to be less than solvent; you may know the details of that one better than I do.

    Point is, the last thing we need is our domestic market being swamped by a bunch of substandard providers coming in at low cost to try and eke out market share. I suspect the US feels the same way. Hence my assumption that this was never a realistic goal for the trade negotiations anyway.

    And reading back it appears you never indicated it was, and I'm really arguing with HYUFD by proxy. Oh well.
    :) No worries.

    @HYUFD knows a lot about polls and the Tory party but damn all about UK/US financial regulation.
  • Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    There was a quote earlier about Rees mogg being the most hated MP in the UK, he's probably second to Duncan Smith, very hard to like.

    Faiza - based on the interview I saw with Jack Straw - is ignorant, delusional and rude. No loss at all to Parliament.
    I don't know much about her but that could well be the case but surely you can't get anymore evil than big Ian....
  • The paucity of talent in Labour ranks is astonishing. The candidates for leader are uniformly awful. Rebecca Long Bailey seems to have no credentials other than being a woman,Northern and very left-wing. That will probably be enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.

    Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.

    Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Do you want to have a crack at answering why we need an FTA if Barclays can get itself listed on the NYSE without one?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,231
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    moonshine said:

    Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?

    Following the script

    I don’t want it to happen
    It won’t happen
    Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch

    No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.

    I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.

    In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.

    The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
    When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will end
    Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.
    And you don't think we might regain some of our fishing fleet if there is more for it to fish for?
    Fishing quotas are a little bit like land. They give you the right to exploit a certain resource up to a certain extent. Assuming we sell these in the open market, what's to stop then being bought by Spanish firms?

    But even if we say they can only be sold to British firms, what's to stop a Spanish fishing firm having a British subsidiary?

    Let us not forget that the reason many British quotas are now owned by foreigners, is that British fishermen sold them.
  • The Vicar of Bath:

    And the SNP? Well, the SNP failed too.
    Because having expressly told voters that the election wasn’t about independence but about stopping Brexit, they won 13 more seats, but seats which have zero leverage at Westminster and will be able to do absolutely nothing to prevent the UK leaving the EU seven weeks from now. For all Scotland’s renewed “STOP BREXIT” message, Brexit will not be stopped. The UK, and Scotland with it, will depart next month....

    We hate to throw a big damp towel on last night’s widespread jubilation in the Yes movement so early, but the fact is that Scotland is now leaving the EU next month and there’s no plan in place to do anything about it. Any chance of an orderly transition for an independent Scotland before the UK is fully out has been squandered. Whatever happens, the process will now be much more complicated and difficult and therefore offputting to voters should indyref 2 ever actually happen.

    The SNP’s strategy was to win over Remain voters and it succeeded in that, but it won a worthless prize – 48 MPs whose votes count for nothing in the face of a Tory majority of 80, and a moral mandate that’s equally toothless and which in any event is badly undermined by the party’s own insistence that it wasn’t won for independence but for stopping Brexit, in which it has been overruled by the voters of England and Wales.


    https://wingsoverscotland.com/everywhere-and-nowhere/#more-113425
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.

    Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Do you want to have a crack at answering why we need an FTA if Barclays can get itself listed on the NYSE without one?
    Tariff free access for British goods mainly, though of course expansion of UK financial services in the US would be a bonus
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,231
    This is a really good piece on why the Left hates Buttigieg: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/magazine/pete-buttigieg.html
  • Off topic - does everyone think LadBaby will do it again!?


    Reindeer Love for Christmas No. 1!!!!!!

    https://open.spotify.com/album/7LZinxkVTNVlDUPjjuD0Yd#_=_
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:



    A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.

    Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later

    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Do you want to have a crack at answering why we need an FTA if Barclays can get itself listed on the NYSE without one?
    Tariff free access for British goods mainly, though of course expansion of UK financial services in the US would be a bonus
    Yes, alright. I meant financial services specifically, but I accept that wasn't clear.
  • Off topic - does everyone think LadBaby will do it again!?


    Reindeer Love for Christmas No. 1!!!!!!

    https://open.spotify.com/album/7LZinxkVTNVlDUPjjuD0Yd#_=_
    Has to be the best song since mankind lol, right?
  • I seen this when it was on TV, Jack straw is a very intelligent and sensible guy.
  • I think all politicians should do interviews regardless of the time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HaroldO said:

    Crank left pivoting on Jess Phillips, she is a transphobe and a racist. Because shit like that flew so well last week.


    Well, if she’s a racist she ought to fit right in in Labour.
    I don't much like Jess Phillips, and I think she'd make a poor Leader of the Opposition, and a rotten Prime Minister. However, if there's one Labour MP I'd trust to sort out Labour's anti-Semitism problem, it's her.
    She'd blow the Labour party up.

    It would sort out the antiSemitism problem because there would only be tiny smithereens of the Labour party left.
    Free owls er broadband er printers for all.....
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    eek said:

    Sorry, but Nicky Morgan. What's all that about?

    Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
    It is temporary until the major cabinet re-organisation in early february after we have left the EU

    She was going to receive a peerage anyway
    Lady Morgan of The Forest Side?

    Sorry, if you don't know Luffbruff you won't get the joke.
    No as you say that has passed me
    OK, an explanation is in order...

    In Loughborough there is a road called Forest Road. The most 'desirable' housing is perceived to be in the vicinity of Forest Road. Estate Agents' adverts are emblazoned with the phrase "Forest Side" to demonstrate the desirability of the property.

    Certain types are therefore keen to make it known to anyone within earshot that they live on the Forest Side. I am equating Nicky Morgan with that type.

    There.
    I’ve never heard the phrase. All the money is in the villages though.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    edited December 2019
    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
  • Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    With an unambiguous message.
  • Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Lol - not sure if you've typed this just to get me chatting with the nightshift.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited December 2019
    houndtang said:

    The paucity of talent in Labour ranks is astonishing. The candidates for leader are uniformly awful. Rebecca Long Bailey seems to have no credentials other than being a woman,Northern and very left-wing. That will probably be enough.

    I was trying to make this point the other night - but you've done much better at explaining it.
  • houndtang said:

    The paucity of talent in Labour ranks is astonishing. The candidates for leader are uniformly awful. Rebecca Long Bailey seems to have no credentials other than being a woman,Northern and very left-wing. That will probably be enough.

    I was trying to make this point the other night - but you've done much better at explaining it.
    A lot of the "big beasts" who might have been in contention were marginalised and gave up under Brown's tenure.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited December 2019

    houndtang said:

    The paucity of talent in Labour ranks is astonishing. The candidates for leader are uniformly awful. Rebecca Long Bailey seems to have no credentials other than being a woman,Northern and very left-wing. That will probably be enough.

    I was trying to make this point the other night - but you've done much better at explaining it.
    A lot of the "big beasts" who might have been in contention were marginalised and gave up under Brown's tenure.
    Brown's tenure was a while ago now - the only current big beast is Cooper l'd say.

    Not sure it the Labour members are clever enough to go for her.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited December 2019
    The 5 favorites, to repeat the point, are a fairly pathetic bunch.

    Apart from maybe Starmer - who seems like he's quite clever, will the "Sir" thing do it for him like Davey??
  • Not one of the best from Tim of the parish.

    I haven't been on PB today, well yesterday,

    Does anyone else think it was perhaps Sue, the Sue who runs the country, behind the Morgan peerage???
  • Note - I am definitely not saying Bitcoin is a Buy.

    Just seen this story flash up on Boom Bust and here's the only link I could find-

    https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2019/12/16/venezuela-airdrop-petro/
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    And why is she campaigning for a Top Brexit ?

  • Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    I can't translate what point you non-Scots are trying to make.

    However, we should have a name for English people who are SNP sympathizers.

    Perhaps we should call them "Byronics" after the most famous Anglo-Scot of all.

    It would clash a bit with our Byronic a bit of course - but they definitely deserve a coinage.
  • Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    I can't translate what point you non-Scots are trying to make.

    However, we should have a name for English people who are SNP sympathizers.

    Perhaps we should call them "Byronics" after the most famous Anglo-Scot of all.

    It would clash a bit with our Byronic a bit of course - but they definitely deserve a coinage.
    Byronic is an anagram of "I, Corbyn" :)
  • Completely OT - but entertaining story from the BEEB about how the person people thought a hunky priest martyred in the Spanish Civil war and subsequently beatified by the Catholic Church was in all probability a German Communist Jew...

    https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p07x170g/the-murdered-handsome-priest-with-a-decades-long-secret
  • Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    It's just a pun! Silly me.
  • Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    And why is she campaigning for a Top Brexit ?
    Looks like she's going to get what she wants!
  • I've slightly crossposted with the famous Sunil.

    I must admit I do take cig breaks when it's not so busy.
  • Wrong Daily into evens on Betfair. I presume this has already been discussed.

    Just scans so good doesn't it. Once (and of course if) she's elected, I predict fun times on PB
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Was age more of a dividing line than in 2017? That's really striking if so!
    Not quite clear from the graph above...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FFS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

    Win an election, give yourself enormous room for manoeuvre. Close all doors... put the U.K. totally in the hands of every regional EU Parliament with a VETO who have no direct interest in whether the U.K. has a trade deal or not. Even if a deal is officially concluded.

    When does the nodeal advertising campaign start again? I guess earlier this time so that we are PROPERLY prepared. Happy new year.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/lib-dems-tories-split-vote-labour

    "The Lib Dems helped the Tories to victory again. Now they should disband" - Simon Jenkins

    The party’s only achievement was to split the vote. It should now merge with Labour and become a moderate influence

    I thought it was a troll posting this repeatedly on the election-night thread but it seems we were getting a visitation from Simon Jenkins as he drafted his post-mortem column!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Indeed. Goods.

    And if you look at what the EU has said they want to discuss - fishing is on the list if Britain wants any sort of access for its goods. So will Boris stick by his new fishing constituencies or ditch them for a basic FTA?



    A basic FTA - if obtained - could still be a hell of a shock to the economy. That’s a risk - and if it happens it could all too easily derail Boris’s ability to fulfil his promises.

    I hope Britain gets a good FTA with the EU. I really do. People are far too sanguine about the consequences if it doesn’t or only gets the bare minimum.
    A basic FTA for goods enables ending free movement and our own trade deals which is exactly what Brexit was won on, the City is big enough to look after itself and it was not the City or its offshoots which won the referendum but the North and Midlands.

    Leaving the EU also means leaving the Common Fisheries Policy what replaces it can be determined later
    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    What interest does the US Financial services sector have in US goods increasing access to the U.K. market?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    edited December 2019
    alex_ said:

    FFS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

    Win an election, give yourself enormous room for manoeuvre. Close all doors... put the U.K. totally in the hands of every regional EU Parliament with a VETO who have no direct interest in whether the U.K. has a trade deal or not. Even if a deal is officially concluded.

    When does the nodeal advertising campaign start again? I guess earlier this time so that we are PROPERLY prepared. Happy new year.

    This is what the voters voted for.
    Whether they like the reality of what they were promised is a different issue.

    Edit to add: Recession earlier rather than later is probably best for Johnson.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alterego said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    moonshine said:

    Are you lot really still arguing about the pros and cons of Brexit?

    Following the script

    I don’t want it to happen
    It won’t happen
    Ok it’s happened, it’ll be a disaster you watch

    No @isam: I have no interest in arguing about Brexit. It has been done and dusted for some while in my mind.

    I am very interested in understanding what sort of FTAs Britain will seek and what these will mean. And I am curious to see what answers will be given (if any can at this stage) to the questions I have posed.

    In all the excitement about the election, people have probably missed the repeated insistence in recent days with which the EU has mentioned fishing as a critical early issue - not just the EU but the French, the Dames and the Irish. And this will be very important to the Spanish too.

    The Tories win Grimsby which will expect some payback. So will Boris fight for Grimsby and forego a basic goods FTA or go for the latter at the expense of Grimsby? We shall see.
    When we leave the EU we will leave the Common Fisheries Policy, that is the main thing, the straight jacket currently restricting our fishermen in our waters compared to the rest of the EU will end
    Except the EU want access to continue and we've lost our fishing fleet over the years so we actually don't need much access.
    And landing the fish is only half the problem - you then have to sell the fish.

    The Europeans buy most of the fish our fishermen catch.

    And we import a lot of fish, so?

    Yes, UK fishermen currently make more money selling to European markets than the domestic one.

    Isn’t the issue as much U.K. access to EU waters? I’m sure I recall some statistic amount how a lot of the fish in U.K. waters aren’t aligned with the fish that U.K. people eat.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Shouldn’t the focus of your deal be getting U.K. access to the US not the other way around?

    Clearly if all we’re interested in is making Foreign goods cheaper these trade deals are going to be a doddle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Regardless of your beliefs or views, it's actually a pretty nice bus, A well done project.
    Shame it's not the best photo of Sturgeon. She looks like the back end of a bus there.
    And why is she campaigning for a Top Brexit ?
    Looks like she's going to get what she wants!
    Something of an heroic assumption.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    FFS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

    Win an election, give yourself enormous room for manoeuvre. Close all doors... put the U.K. totally in the hands of every regional EU Parliament with a VETO who have no direct interest in whether the U.K. has a trade deal or not. Even if a deal is officially concluded.

    When does the nodeal advertising campaign start again? I guess earlier this time so that we are PROPERLY prepared. Happy new year.

    This is what the voters voted for.
    Whether they like the reality of what they were promised is a different issue.

    Edit to add: Recession earlier rather than later is probably best for Johnson.
    I still think there is an outside possibility that the EU Parliament might vote down the Withdrawal Agreement. I wonder if somewhere deep in Govt somebody is desperately trying to plan for this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As one used to be able to say before Brexitism-ces.
    The City is the biggest financial centre in the world and does much of its business outside the EU anyway so will benefit from the new trade deals Boris will do
    Do you really think the US will give access to UK financial services firms? Really??

    Bless.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Shouldn’t the focus of your deal be getting U.K. access to the US not the other way around?

    Clearly if all we’re interested in is making Foreign goods cheaper these trade deals are going to be a doddle.
    HYUFD’s focus is justifying God’s ways to man.


    Sorry, Boris’s.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Nigelb said:

    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:



    o
    s.
    In return for access for US goods to the UK yes
    This is delusional.

    The US sees Brexit as a golden opportunity to wrest back from London a lot of the financial services business it has lost over the years and to make its own multi-service and investment banks even more dominant than they are already, as a result of the fact that there are no big European or British investment banking competitors left, other than Deutsche Bank - which is in deep shit - and HSBC - which is having its own profits and regulatory difficulties following the GFC.

    Since at least the 1930’s it has been more or less impossible for any financial services firm to access the US market from outside. That will not change now.
    It will be more likely with a US FTA than without, not least because we will only give access here in return for what access we get there
    It will not happen. If you want to provide financial services to the US you have to set up in the US and be subject to US regulation. The US financial sector has huge lobbying power and there is no way it or the US authorities will allow UK firms to sell into their market on a cross-border basis.

    And the US has already got access to our financial services sector. They own a big chunk of it. Or did you miss what happened to City firms post-Big Bang?

    Barclays is listed on the New York Stock exchange and if is goods access to the UK for US companies which would be the main focus of any deal
    Shouldn’t the focus of your deal be getting U.K. access to the US not the other way around?

    Clearly if all we’re interested in is making Foreign goods cheaper these trade deals are going to be a doddle.
    HYUFD’s focus is justifying God’s ways to man.


    Sorry, Boris’s.
    Yep, don’t get the impression that it actually matters to HYUFD whether Johnson’s policies actually are good for the country. Or even for the people who voted Conservative in large numbers. He’s taking a hell of a risk that the latter won’t care though. Although it’s possible he’s already priced in a Tory defeat next time - it’s what he used to predict. I’m assuming in that case he’s possibly not hoping for a continuity Corbyn candidate to win.

  • This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

    This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited December 2019
    matt said:

    eek said:

    Sorry, but Nicky Morgan. What's all that about?

    Could she be there until the next reshuffle in return for a peerage? After all it takes a while to find a new job and getting money is nice while looking.
    It is temporary until the major cabinet re-organisation in early february after we have left the EU

    She was going to receive a peerage anyway
    Lady Morgan of The Forest Side?

    Sorry, if you don't know Luffbruff you won't get the joke.
    No as you say that has passed me
    OK, an explanation is in order...

    In Loughborough there is a road called Forest Road. The most 'desirable' housing is perceived to be in the vicinity of Forest Road. Estate Agents' adverts are emblazoned with the phrase "Forest Side" to demonstrate the desirability of the property.

    Certain types are therefore keen to make it known to anyone within earshot that they live on the Forest Side. I am equating Nicky Morgan with that type.

    There.
    I’ve never heard the phrase. All the money is in the villages though.
    The posher villages are in Charnwood surely?

    How lovely for Nicky to be able to stay on without the nuisance of being elected.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

    This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

    "I didn't expect leopards to eat MY face" says man who voted for the face eating leopards party.
  • alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    FFS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

    Win an election, give yourself enormous room for manoeuvre. Close all doors... put the U.K. totally in the hands of every regional EU Parliament with a VETO who have no direct interest in whether the U.K. has a trade deal or not. Even if a deal is officially concluded.

    When does the nodeal advertising campaign start again? I guess earlier this time so that we are PROPERLY prepared. Happy new year.

    This is what the voters voted for.
    Whether they like the reality of what they were promised is a different issue.

    Edit to add: Recession earlier rather than later is probably best for Johnson.
    I still think there is an outside possibility that the EU Parliament might vote down the Withdrawal Agreement. I wonder if somewhere deep in Govt somebody is desperately trying to plan for this.
    There’s little (to no) upside in them doing so.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    FFS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

    Win an election, give yourself enormous room for manoeuvre. Close all doors... put the U.K. totally in the hands of every regional EU Parliament with a VETO who have no direct interest in whether the U.K. has a trade deal or not. Even if a deal is officially concluded.

    When does the nodeal advertising campaign start again? I guess earlier this time so that we are PROPERLY prepared. Happy new year.

    This is what the voters voted for.
    Whether they like the reality of what they were promised is a different issue.

    Edit to add: Recession earlier rather than later is probably best for Johnson.
    I still think there is an outside possibility that the EU Parliament might vote down the Withdrawal Agreement. I wonder if somewhere deep in Govt somebody is desperately trying to plan for this.
    There’s little (to no) upside in them doing so.
    There is little upside in lots of things politicians do these days. Even the supposed serious ones in positions of leadership, so I would never rely on rationality of legislatures.
This discussion has been closed.