politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
Comments
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Rather bizarrely, Survation did a poll on 8-9 May 2015.squareroot2 said:
It was not meant to be serious but nevertheless there is a serious point here. What would those who gave their vote to the Tories 24 hrs ago say now?ydoethur said:
No. Get help.squareroot2 said:Any polls tonight? .
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Hah - Anyway Doncaster North is a marginal now (Though it probably sticks with Labour as I can't see the Tories going forward next election - who knows though)MaxPB said:Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
Interestingly... I've found a worthwhile Novara Media article that discusses some of the challenges facing Labour in the north.
https://novaramedia.com/2019/12/10/in-the-norths-leave-voting-seats-disillusionment-is-labours-biggest-enemy/0 -
‘Thank god it wasn’t corbyn’I’m afraid, ask them what they want next they will say get brexit done, ask them what that means I’m afraid they will probably say get brexit done but it is what it is.squareroot2 said:
It was not meant to be serious but nevertheless there is a serious point here. What would those who gave their vote to the Tories 24 hrs ago say now?ydoethur said:
No. Get help.squareroot2 said:Any polls tonight? .
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So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...0 -
Loughborough is full of engineering students. Tories.Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
It will be rather lovely to have a Labour Party led by someone who is prepared to engaged with the full range of its members/supporters. The Corbynites need to make peace, if not learn to love the Blairites again and vice verse. Both have failed In their own way.nichomar said:
It’s a shame it is a unique opportunity for a UK government to actually govern for everybody it has only happened once in my life and the eventually let it slip away but let’s see I’ve fought this war for to long and want an end to tribalism and triumphalism can they just get on with their jobs, keep off the Telly and earn their salary.AnneJGP said:
Where next is in the lap of the gods. When the electorate doesn't want Corbynism because they don't like where that would take us, where the alternative takes us is a matter of 'suck it up' as the expression has it.nichomar said:
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?HaroldO said:
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
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Piers and Suzanna joint ticket.Jonathan said:
There are other unions. Keep an eye on the GMB and who they back.ydoethur said:
You wonder if McCluskey will face another challenge. He has screwed up massively.Jonathan said:
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.ydoethur said:
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.1 -
It's not the Conservatives fault that the British left prefer purity over power.rural_voter said:
... you may have missed an election 2 days ago with 55% of the vote for parties which would revoke or have a confirmatory referendum.RobD said:
You might have missed the referendum on leaving the EU, where the leave side secure 52%.rural_voter said:
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.alex_ said:O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
But they only got only 42% of the seats. As most Tories except Hannan are even more dinosaur-like on the PR issue than Labour, we'll probably have FPTP for another 100 yrs. Do enjoy your unfair majorities (six since 1979 for Tories, only three for Lab).0 -
One idea for the Conservatives might be to engage with the wealthiest in society to consider ways in which they might be prepared to direct some of their capital towards various schemes (on a charitable, non investment basis). Perhaps on some sort of pooled basis. But importantly not directed through the Government (many quite probably already do this to some extent, although i don't know that people generally know about it outside of direct recipients).
There is obviously huge wealth sitting out in the country that just never gets used, but could be. And i'm sure there are many who would be happy to put some of their wealth towards good causes. But importantly, on a voluntary basis, towards things they want (ie. they have some control over it, and certainty that it won't be 'wasted'), and not to subsidise base Government spending.1 -
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N2 -
Scrabble score?Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
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Is UEA in Norwich North or South? I would guess South.SandyRentool said:
Loughborough is full of engineering students. Tories.Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
So ... who's for December becoming the new standard month for General Elections?
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Lloyd Russell-Moyle, another one who will nominate any nutcase as long as it’s got a Socialist rosette.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N1 -
They may even get a small financial return for doing so, it is how I will spend my lottery win when it happens!alex_ said:One idea for the Conservatives might be to engage with the wealthiest in society to consider ways in which they might be prepared to direct some of their capital towards various schemes (on a charitable, non investment basis). Perhaps on some sort of pooled basis. But importantly not directed through the Government (many quite probably already do this to some extent, although i don't know that people generally know about it outside of direct recipients).
There is obviously huge wealth sitting out in the country that just never gets used, but could be. And i'm sure there are many who would be happy to put some of their wealth towards good causes. But importantly, on a voluntary basis, towards things they want (ie. they have some control over it, and certainty that it won't be 'wasted'), and not to subsidise base Government spending.0 -
If I say, ‘No. Get help,’ it might be misconstrued again.BluestBlue said:So ... who's for December becoming the new standard month for General Elections?
That being said...0 -
Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?0
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Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
I saw his rant. A shit of the first order.ydoethur said:
Lloyd Russell-Moyle, another one who will nominate any nutcase as long as it’s got a Socialist rosette.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N1 -
Or History, or Languages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?
In answer to your second question I think of the list CHB put up earlier Yvette Cooper is the only Oxonian, but I could very easily be wrong.0 -
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
What do you mean, "again"?CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
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If only he had come turd in his race.squareroot2 said:
I saw his rant. A shit of the first order.ydoethur said:
Lloyd Russell-Moyle, another one who will nominate any nutcase as long as it’s got a Socialist rosette.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
I've only recently returned to the site as for a long time I couldn't get the password reset to work - kept saying that the token had expired every time I requested a new reset link. I fear there are others who've had similar trouble. Scott maybe?DayTripper said:
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.0 -
Of course, the problem recently has been that Lib Dem leaders have been too old and experienced. If only they could find a photogenic sixth-former their problems would be over.1
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Its interesting how the Conservative mining belt is steadily moving north.Pulpstar said:
Hah - Anyway Doncaster North is a marginal now (Though it probably sticks with Labour as I can't see the Tories going forward next election - who knows though)MaxPB said:Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
Interestingly... I've found a worthwhile Novara Media article that discusses some of the challenges facing Labour in the north.
https://novaramedia.com/2019/12/10/in-the-norths-leave-voting-seats-disillusionment-is-labours-biggest-enemy/
Back in 1992 Cannock, Nuneaton, Sherwood and Warwicks N were all Labour with Amber Valley and Leicestershire NW Conservative by under a thousand.
In twenty years time Don and Rother Valleys could be safe Conservative with Hemsworth and Wentworth being the battleground.0 -
Elevation above sea level?Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
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Close. Bucks New University is one above Cambridge University on an alphabetical list, which is a very widely used measure. Anyone from Aberdeen would (I think) be able to claim to come from the top ranked U.K. university.Endillion said:
Scrabble score?Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
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It's been mentioned, and it will obviously happen.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
Farrant.ydoethur said:
It ain’t getting better...Chris said:
Sorry, how embarrassing!Black_Rook said:
Is that the same Tim Farnon who's related to Siegfried and Tristan?Chris said:Perhaps they could give Tim Farnon another go. At least people know his name.
I meant Tim Fallon of course.0 -
I'm sure Scott is desperate to update us on all future HoC votes.MyBurningEars said:
I've only recently returned to the site as for a long time I couldn't get the password reset to work - kept saying that the token had expired every time I requested a new reset link. I fear there are others who've had similar trouble. Scott maybe?DayTripper said:
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.
He so enjoyed keeping track of Boris's win rate.0 -
How is this wealth not used?nichomar said:
They may even get a small financial return for doing so, it is how I will spend my lottery win when it happens!alex_ said:One idea for the Conservatives might be to engage with the wealthiest in society to consider ways in which they might be prepared to direct some of their capital towards various schemes (on a charitable, non investment basis). Perhaps on some sort of pooled basis. But importantly not directed through the Government (many quite probably already do this to some extent, although i don't know that people generally know about it outside of direct recipients).
There is obviously huge wealth sitting out in the country that just never gets used, but could be. And i'm sure there are many who would be happy to put some of their wealth towards good causes. But importantly, on a voluntary basis, towards things they want (ie. they have some control over it, and certainty that it
won't be 'wasted'), and not to subsidise base Government spending.0 -
There is no prediction that brexit will shrink the economy. Every forecast I've seen involves positive growth in all years.Jonathan said:
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.MaxPB said:
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.Jonathan said:
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
Your Tim has yet to come...Chris said:
Farrant.ydoethur said:
It ain’t getting better...Chris said:
Sorry, how embarrassing!Black_Rook said:
Is that the same Tim Farnon who's related to Siegfried and Tristan?Chris said:Perhaps they could give Tim Farnon another go. At least people know his name.
I meant Tim Fallon of course.0 -
Hemsworth already is. Labour majority of 1280.another_richard said:
Its interesting how the Conservative mining belt is steadily moving north.Pulpstar said:
Hah - Anyway Doncaster North is a marginal now (Though it probably sticks with Labour as I can't see the Tories going forward next election - who knows though)MaxPB said:Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
Interestingly... I've found a worthwhile Novara Media article that discusses some of the challenges facing Labour in the north.
https://novaramedia.com/2019/12/10/in-the-norths-leave-voting-seats-disillusionment-is-labours-biggest-enemy/
Back in 1992 Cannock, Nuneaton, Sherwood and Warwicks N were all Labour with Amber Valley and Leicestershire NW Conservative by under a thousand.
In twenty years time Don and Rother Valleys could be safe Conservative with Hemsworth and Wentworth being the battleground.1 -
Also, the town of Loughborough is a little less, er, fashionable than other student towns. Perfectly fine town of course. But not really a Lancaster or a Canterbury. Far fewer artsy Guadrianistas hanging around there.SandyRentool said:
Loughborough is full of engineering students. Tories.Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N1 -
The Conservative manifesto includes repeal of the FTPA.RobD said:
It's been mentioned, and it will obviously happen.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
My guesswork is that both main parties have got a large number of voters who could desert depending on circumstances at next election. A lot of commentators are concentrating on first time Tory switchers from Labour (plus Labour abstentions) outside London. However on the Labour side there are a large number of middle class voters who could be lost. Brexit will have happened so those motivated to get a hung parliament may not back Labour next time round. More critically, will the middle classes vote for a financial clobbering implied by even a moderated version of the last manifesto? I don't think so. In the next election economics will probably be central.
I believe that the Labour vote in the last two elections would have reduced if there was a perception that they could win a majority. In other words, there is a form of negative feedback for a hard left LP governed by their standing in the opinion polls.0 -
It's 82 years since the last Cambridge PM. Not long enough.ydoethur said:
Or History, or Languages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?
In answer to your second question I think of the list CHB put up earlier Yvette Cooper is the only Oxonian, but I could very easily be wrong.1 -
Not post brexit. There's no votes left in being a remain party.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
As opposed to every 2 years, presumably.Endillion said:
What do you mean, "again"?CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
1 -
Possibly. Prime ministers would announce an election at the time they thought most advantageous. There is a scene in the play “The Absence of War” which is a fictionalised account of the 1992 election from the Labour leader’s point of view where the first indication he has that an election has been called is when armed bodyguards from the close protection squad turn up to guard him as a potential prime minister. I think there is a matching scene at the end when, after it has become clear that he has lost the election, the bodyguard leaves.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
Indeed. We know there are now no safe seats. If Labour could find the right leader, the right policies and with a bit of luck the blue blob may well fall like the red wall.another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
That's more than a little patronising.Andy_JS said:
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Clearly only Labour or the Tories can win elections in the UK, and it's not difficult to separate those two parties on policy. Corbyn may be a disaster, but to millions a Labour party led by Corbyn would be clearly preferable to a Boris led Tory party.1 -
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50790445
About halfway down there's an interview with Phil Wilson.
I am absolutely convinced that if Keir Starmer had stood on the 2017 manifesto it would have been a minority Labour Government at the worst. But because so many of us were too stupid to see what was happening and too arrogant to listen, Labour is going to climb what should have been a few seats, now being 60+.
We've really cocked this up, I think it's difficult to understate how badly.0 -
Is one of the consequences of our changing electoral geography that the PLP is increasingly typified by the likes of Lloyd Russell-Moyle and less by the likes of Caroline Flint - and that tbe party therefore disappears even further up its own fundament? What is the balance of the new PLP like?ydoethur said:
If only he had come turd in his race.squareroot2 said:
I saw his rant. A shit of the first order.ydoethur said:
Lloyd Russell-Moyle, another one who will nominate any nutcase as long as it’s got a Socialist rosette.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we, er, they are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
But it’s not a binary choice there are other options change the voting system and you can vote how youwantnova said:
That's more than a little patronising.Andy_JS said:
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Clearly only Labour or the Tories can win elections in the UK, and it's not difficult to separate those two parties on policy. Corbyn may be a disaster, but to millions a Labour party led by Corbyn would be clearly preferable to a Boris led Tory party.0 -
The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.0
-
We’ll see what happens.MaxPB said:
Not post brexit. There's no votes left in being a remain party.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
0 -
1979-1983, 1983-1987, 1997-2001, 2001-2005. Elections had to be held within five years but PMs would normally try to go after four unless they thought they would lose.Endillion said:
What do you mean, "again"?CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.0 -
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
But you have an eight foot horn and it’s a long time since I wore a ruff!ydoethur said:
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
Was there a "change the voting system" option on your ballot?nichomar said:
But it’s not a binary choice there are other options change the voting system and you can vote how youwantnova said:
That's more than a little patronising.Andy_JS said:
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Clearly only Labour or the Tories can win elections in the UK, and it's not difficult to separate those two parties on policy. Corbyn may be a disaster, but to millions a Labour party led by Corbyn would be clearly preferable to a Boris led Tory party.
In my constituency there were a list of names, and two of them got 87% of the vote. It looks pretty binary to me.0 -
I think a much more radical housing policy is going to be needed than that.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
Jonathan said:
We’ll see what happens.MaxPB said:
Not post brexit. There's no votes left in being a remain party.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
Close relationship and see how it develops0 -
It being eight foot long only makes the contortions harder.nichomar said:
But you have an eight foot horn and it’s a long time since I wore a ruff!ydoethur said:
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
Perhaps we also need to stop allowing foreign entities to buy up housing before it is built, like say the RussiansMalmesbury said:
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
If they're going to get building to prove they mean it, they need to crack on with it. From planning to completion, major infrastructure projects are realistically going to be ready only for the election-after-next, I'd have thought.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
Still think there might be something in this. He likes a bit of symbolism. And to be fair A Big Boris Bridge would be marginally less barmy than Boris Island.MyBurningEars said:
If I were to enter the mind of BoJo, I think I'd be tempted to go for a really big symbolic show-project - given the NI tensions and Union wobbles more generally, a Massive Great Bridge between GB and Ulster might be in order. Hopefully more successful than the Garden Bridge...0 -
I think it has a 2020 sunset clause, so there's no need to repeal it.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
If you keep voting for the binary choice nothing will ever change.nova said:
Was there a "change the voting system" option on your ballot?nichomar said:
But it’s not a binary choice there are other options change the voting system and you can vote how youwantnova said:
That's more than a little patronising.Andy_JS said:
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Clearly only Labour or the Tories can win elections in the UK, and it's not difficult to separate those two parties on policy. Corbyn may be a disaster, but to millions a Labour party led by Corbyn would be clearly preferable to a Boris led Tory party.
In my constituency there were a list of names, and two of them got 87% of the vote. It looks pretty binary to me.0 -
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.0 -
Not the bridge again. It's been discounted as possible due to the amount of unexploded WW2 bombs in the Irish SeaMyBurningEars said:
If they're going to get building to prove they mean it, they need to crack on with it. From planning to completion, major infrastructure projects are realistically going to be ready only for the election-after-next, I'd have thought.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
Still think there might be something in this. He likes a bit of symbolism. And to be fair A Big Boris Bridge would be marginally less barmy than Boris Island.MyBurningEars said:
If I were to enter the mind of BoJo, I think I'd be tempted to go for a really big symbolic show-project - given the NI tensions and Union wobbles more generally, a Massive Great Bridge between GB and Ulster might be in order. Hopefully more successful than the Garden Bridge...0 -
Okay sure - but my point is that the Tory Party is going to shred its "economic credibility" credentials for short term success.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
If there is another recession - as I expect there will be - they're going to surely make massive cuts.0 -
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/parliament/prerogative-powers-and-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act/viewcode said:
I think it has a 2020 sunset clause, so there's no need to repeal it.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
No, in the end the compromise was this:
When the Bill was considered in Parliament, the House of Lords proposed a “sunset clause”. This would have required both the Houses to renew the legislation after each general election. The Commons objected. The deadlock between the two Houses was resolved through the insertion of a statutory requirement on the Prime Minister to establish a committee “to carry out a review of the operation of [the] Act” and “if appropriate in consequence of its findings, to make recommendations for the repeal or amendment of [the] Act.” The committee is required to report at some point between 1 June 2020 and 30 November 2020.
Wonder if they'll wait for the review or scrap it before, though.0 -
How much do you pay the person that pumps the bellows?ydoethur said:
It being eight foot long only makes the contortions harder.nichomar said:
But you have an eight foot horn and it’s a long time since I wore a ruff!ydoethur said:
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
It actually isn't. A million landlords own four million homes. That has destroyed the available housing stock for FTBs.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think a much more radical housing policy is going to be needed than that.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
The latter, if we value detached housing more than green space - but the alternative is denser housing, like most countries. We certainly don't need anti-landlord policies (as opposed to policies to encourage good landlords) in the south - for huge numbers of people in the Home Counties, renting is a crucial part of life and we need a decnt supply.Malmesbury said:
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".
1 -
Er, Labour were offering closer to £800bn in infrastructure spending!CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
Presumably the Conservatives could just find it from the reserve... They're not spending £52bn on WASPI after all
But more seriously, all infrastructure spending can be justified - if it is well spent and targeted (an obvious issue). And can be borrowed. Because it is supposed to pay for itself. There was this thing they tried in the US in the 30s...
0 -
Depends on prior arrangements.nichomar said:
How much do you pay the person that pumps the bellows?ydoethur said:
It being eight foot long only makes the contortions harder.nichomar said:
But you have an eight foot horn and it’s a long time since I wore a ruff!ydoethur said:
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
Nope, there is enough housing in the UK, it just isn't allocated efficiently because owner occupation is effectively discouraged compared to being a landlord.Malmesbury said:
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
0
-
Cancel HS2 and simultaneously announce £100bn infrastructure investment in the Midlands, North and Wales.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.0 -
I can't see the Tories doing much to change that, if it's anything like the last nine years it will be very small, basically meaningless changes that don't do very much.MaxPB said:
It actually isn't. A million landlords own four million homes. That has destroyed the available housing stock for FTBs.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think a much more radical housing policy is going to be needed than that.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
The people that vote Tory in large numbers outside of the new voters they've borrowed/taken, like their house prices to continue to go up in value, the Tories will not do anything to potentially undermine that, that is the reality.0 -
Cash on infrastructure is going to come under "investment/capital" spending rather than "resource spending" (current expenditure), expect the two to be treated differently under Austerity Round 2.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Okay sure - but my point is that the Tory Party is going to shred its "economic credibility" credentials for short term success.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
If there is another recession - as I expect there will be - they're going to surely make massive cuts.0 -
Really? Worst post-war performance? Worst than Michael Foot? You've lost Scotland. You've lost the Northern Mining towns. Your only redoubt is the South Wales Valleys and the University towns. How bad did it have to get before you realised this? And what, if anything, can you do that will realistically stop it happening the next time?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50790445
About halfway down there's an interview with Phil Wilson.
I am absolutely convinced that if Keir Starmer had stood on the 2017 manifesto it would have been a minority Labour Government at the worst. But because so many of us were too stupid to see what was happening and too arrogant to listen, Labour is going to climb what should have been a few seats, now being 60+.
We've really cocked this up, I think it's difficult to understate how badly.0 -
It is slightly bizarre that I am a landlord, yet have a mortgage on the house I live in.MaxPB said:
Nope, there is enough housing in the UK, it just isn't allocated efficiently because owner occupation is effectively discouraged compared to being a landlord.Malmesbury said:
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
It becomes less bizarre when you realise I inherited a house with a sitting tenant.-1 -
No we bloody well don't. Hands off the countryside. Say No to urban sprawl.Malmesbury said:
What we need is aggressive granting of planning permission to build.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
Well I hope you have your entance and processionals sorted out, any hints on tomorrow’s choices?ydoethur said:
Depends on prior arrangements.nichomar said:
How much do you pay the person that pumps the bellows?ydoethur said:
It being eight foot long only makes the contortions harder.nichomar said:
But you have an eight foot horn and it’s a long time since I wore a ruff!ydoethur said:
Well,, one does not like to blow one’s own trumpet (apart from anything else, the contortions are quite tough) but obviously, if one is asked to serve one’s country as PM...nichomar said:
Only if they are good at puns and know what the ruff end of a pineapple is!ydoethur said:
No, we should have only Welsh History teachers. This is because we are naturally superior to everyone else.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
I think most of Labour's manifesto this time around was pretty silly - but they've lost the election. My point is that the Tories are promising money seemingly out of thin air.alex_ said:
Er, Labour were offering closer to £800bn in infrastructure spending!CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I'm not saying they shouldn't invest in things - they should - but my point is that they're proposing to increase the deficit as a result, which if they're following their own previous economic "competence" measure, they would never plan to do.
If their is another recession as I say, it seems like an open goal for a credible opposition to attack.0 -
Between 4 and 8 million voters have voted for the Liberals/SDP/Lib Dems in the dozen general elections since I was born. Things haven't changed.nichomar said:
If you keep voting for the binary choice nothing will ever change.nova said:
Was there a "change the voting system" option on your ballot?nichomar said:
But it’s not a binary choice there are other options change the voting system and you can vote how youwantnova said:
That's more than a little patronising.Andy_JS said:
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Clearly only Labour or the Tories can win elections in the UK, and it's not difficult to separate those two parties on policy. Corbyn may be a disaster, but to millions a Labour party led by Corbyn would be clearly preferable to a Boris led Tory party.
In my constituency there were a list of names, and two of them got 87% of the vote. It looks pretty binary to me.
0 -
There might be much more value in doing a huge number of minor infrastructure projects.MyBurningEars said:
If they're going to get building to prove they mean it, they need to crack on with it. From planning to completion, major infrastructure projects are realistically going to be ready only for the election-after-next, I'd have thought.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
They can also be completed a lot quicker as well.0 -
HS2 IS infrastructure investment for the North, Midlands and to a lesser extent North Wales.another_richard said:
Cancel HS2 and simultaneously announce £100bn infrastructure investment in the Midlands, North and Wales.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
https://paulbigland.blog/2019/12/14/election-result-what-does-it-mean-for-hs2/0 -
Like Thatcher you mean? I don’t think any other PM studied a STEM subject.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
I meant post 2017, when Labour actually gained seats. We cocked up keeping Corbyn and I didn't realise until this election how badly we'd cocked it up.viewcode said:
Really? Worst post-war performance? Worst than Michael Foot? You've lost Scotland. You've lost the Northern Mining towns. Your only redoubt is the South Wales Valleys and the University towns. How bad did it have to get before you realised this? And what, if anything, can you do that will realistically stop it happening the next time?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50790445
About halfway down there's an interview with Phil Wilson.
I am absolutely convinced that if Keir Starmer had stood on the 2017 manifesto it would have been a minority Labour Government at the worst. But because so many of us were too stupid to see what was happening and too arrogant to listen, Labour is going to climb what should have been a few seats, now being 60+.
We've really cocked this up, I think it's difficult to understate how badly.
There are narrow avenues for Labour to come back - but they need the right leader and a new approach.0 -
No it doesn't. It has a 'review date'.viewcode said:
I think it has a 2020 sunset clause, so there's no need to repeal it.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not sure this has been mentioned yet but one of the first things I expect the Tories to do is to repeal the FTPA. Could we return to four year elections again?
0 -
I've already heard rumbles of opposition to streamlined planning - apparently Cummings is quoting the example of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_3 and the civil service is not happy.MyBurningEars said:
If they're going to get building to prove they mean it, they need to crack on with it. From planning to completion, major infrastructure projects are realistically going to be ready only for the election-after-next, I'd have thought.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
Still think there might be something in this. He likes a bit of symbolism. And to be fair A Big Boris Bridge would be marginally less barmy than Boris Island.MyBurningEars said:
If I were to enter the mind of BoJo, I think I'd be tempted to go for a really big symbolic show-project - given the NI tensions and Union wobbles more generally, a Massive Great Bridge between GB and Ulster might be in order. Hopefully more successful than the Garden Bridge...
Boris Island made plenty of sense - strangely no-one opposed to it thought of the value of the Heathrow real estate... Hong Kong airport was more than paid for by the re-use of the old airport land.0 -
It's already started, I expect the Boris government to accelerate the pace of pissing off the landlords.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I can't see the Tories doing much to change that, if it's anything like the last nine years it will be very small, basically meaningless changes that don't do very much.MaxPB said:
It actually isn't. A million landlords own four million homes. That has destroyed the available housing stock for FTBs.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think a much more radical housing policy is going to be needed than that.MaxPB said:
I think this has been noted by the leadership already. I think more anti-landlord policies are going to come, hopefully it will tip the balance further towards home ownership and away from existing property "investment".another_richard said:
Housing affordability is the big threat to the Conservatives in the South.Jonathan said:
The Tory’s southern underbelly is soft with the right leader.another_richard said:
Bristol NW, Brighton Kemptown and Hove now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Hove
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
The people that vote Tory in large numbers outside of the new voters they've borrowed/taken, like their house prices to continue to go up in value, the Tories will not do anything to potentially undermine that, that is the reality.0 -
The midlands and the north are big supporters of HS2. They wouldn't be very happy if it was cancelled.another_richard said:
Cancel HS2 and simultaneously announce £100bn infrastructure investment in the Midlands, North and Wales.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
0 -
I know but she then went and did a law degreeFysics_Teacher said:
Like Thatcher you mean? I don’t think any other PM studied a STEM subject.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was?0 -
Twitter's going to be a joy for a while, isn't it?another_richard said:
I'm sure Scott is desperate to update us on all future HoC votes.MyBurningEars said:
I've only recently returned to the site as for a long time I couldn't get the password reset to work - kept saying that the token had expired every time I requested a new reset link. I fear there are others who've had similar trouble. Scott maybe?DayTripper said:
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.
He so enjoyed keeping track of Boris's win rate.
"Today, Boris Johnson proposed a Bill to nationalise Novara Media and fold it into the BBC. Editorial control will be exercised by Laura Kuenssberg. Passed with a majority of 87."0 -
I wonder what mileage there is (hah) in HS3: Liverpool to Hull. There's folk in Hull arguing it should be prioritised to happen before HS2 but I can't see that happening.another_richard said:
Cancel HS2 and simultaneously announce £100bn infrastructure investment in the Midlands, North and Wales.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
Perhaps one of the rail-engineering types on here can explain more but I imagine there are limits on our rail-building capacity (besides which it would presumably be silly to build up such capacity to embark on a huge simultaneous expansion of lines, then have to largely run that capacity down once they've all been built). There's also people in The North who want HS2 to be constructed "north to south" either first or in parallel to the "south to north" bit - isn't that also considered impractical/uneconomic?0 -
Polymathnichomar said:
I know but she then went and did a law degreeFysics_Teacher said:
Like Thatcher you mean? I don’t think any other PM studied a STEM subject.nichomar said:
Let’s hope we have the last ever old Etonian Oxbridge none STEM graduate ever. Let’s have scientists, entrepreneurs and good business managers who have actually done more than been spads, journalists or lawyersFysics_Teacher said:
Not for architecture, no.ydoethur said:
So does Oxford, of course.Fysics_Teacher said:Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.
Oxford also has a second university called, imaginatively, the University of Oxford, which is infamously not nearly as good...
Speaking of Oxford, the last three Labour leaders to win general elections were all there. Who on the list of possible new leaders was? 0 -
To whose benefit ?ydoethur said:
HS2 IS infrastructure investment for the North, Midlands and to a lesser extent North Wales.another_richard said:
Cancel HS2 and simultaneously announce £100bn infrastructure investment in the Midlands, North and Wales.MaxPB said:
The £80bn is within the current spending envelope if we decide to stop cutting the deficit now that it is below 2%. It's not what I would do, but tbh, I've already lost that argument within the party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where is this money going to come from? If Labour was offering £80Bn in infrastructure spending they'd be utterly taken apart.MaxPB said:The problem for Labour is that it very much looks like Boris is going to play to the centre. The guardian reporting on NHS funding guarantee laws and £80bn on infrastructure in the ex-Labour heartlands. That looks like a party that wants to prove they aren't just in favour of the rich shires. It's literally from the Maggie playbook, we're going to turn them into Tories as much as they are going to make us less libertarian.
I've said this before, if there is another recession the UK has to be one of the absolute worst prepared economies in Europe. Consumer debt levels now at the same as they were in 2006/2007 before the last crash, worrying high levels of rough sleeping and homelessness, very poor growth (or none) and debt to GDP at something like 85%.
I can't see the Tories spending their way out of the next recession, can you?
Has anyone worked out the average age you started voting Conservative yet, has it gone up or down? Because I must tell you, if the Tories continue to fail to tackle the housing issue in the next five or ten years, that is another ticking time bomb.
They have a lot of power now to tackle these problems, I really hope they do - but I fear they won't.
https://paulbigland.blog/2019/12/14/election-result-what-does-it-mean-for-hs2/
The metropolitan affluent of the 2040s.
Not what I'd call a key electoral demographic.1
