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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

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  • Really don't like Priti Patel though, find her deeply sinister

  • Things we've been told over the years:

    Boris won't win in London...

    Boris won't win in London twice...

    Boris won't be in the Cabinet...

    Boris won't be Prime Minister...

    Boris won't get a Brexit Deal...

    Boris won't win an election...

    Boris won't win a landslide...

    Betting against Boris has worked out not necessarily to his critics' advantage.

    This rather underlines my point though, Johnson is very good at winning things - but he's very poor at actually changing anything.

    My view of him is that he's only interested in winning, he's not actually interested in changing the country. But we will see.
    No, that was Cameron. Boris won't be content without being a great PM.
    We will see if he is.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    How does so-called "Blue Labour" (which is probably where Labour needs to go) bridge the gap between Labour communities in the North and London?

    Become a tory !!!!!!!
    Thing about Blue Labour - is that it is not a parody - A Triangulation too far.

    As for what labour should do... Well there are plenty of socialist governments across the world - they should copy whatever they did.
    Like Venezuela you mean?
    I get confused with all the South American ones - but yeah I think they're having a bad time of it at the moment.

    I probably shouldn't be giving Labour such good advice now I am officially a PB Tory (even if I did go eenie meenie mineee mo)
    I hope you stopped after "mo" 😉
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    edited December 2019

    Jess will stand

    Useless fact: she's the only Labour MP I've met in person, albeit only for about 20 seconds.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Can’t really take Ayesha seriously when she was busy palling around with Sarkar, taking selfies with her etc. Ash Sarkar was a communist back then, but Ayesha was still happy to associate with her. Her retweet of Guido also screams ‘people I don’t like’ shouldn’t be given a platform.
    Who on earth are these people?
    Ayesha - former Labour advisor
    Ash Sarkar - works with Novara media
    Honestly it's two non-entities screeching into the wind. All of these are best left of ignored. It's the best advice I can give to Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605

    Hmm. Important and key figure in the Jezza project, highlighting Nandy?

    Something afoot?

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1205857976109731841

    Lisa Nandy would make an excellent leader IMO. She's a little lightweight at the moment, but that would improve over time.
  • Can’t really take Ayesha seriously when she was busy palling around with Sarkar, taking selfies with her etc. Ash Sarkar was a communist back then, but Ayesha was still happy to associate with her. Her retweet of Guido also screams ‘people I don’t like’ shouldn’t be given a platform.
    Who on earth are these people?
    Ayesha - former Labour advisor
    Ash Sarkar - works with Novara media
    Thank you. It was actually a rhetorical question, but I'll try and remember them in future.

    I'm also sloping off and concur with other comments about the pleasant atmosphere here this evening. As a parting gift here's a story I found quite uplifting and I hope others do so too:

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/man-22-ended-up-homeless-17415554
  • Andy_JS said:

    Hmm. Important and key figure in the Jezza project, highlighting Nandy?

    Something afoot?

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1205857976109731841

    Lisa Nandy would make an excellent leader IMO. She's a little lightweight at the moment, but that would improve over time.
    Doesn't seem to have a lot of baggage either
  • Any polls tonight?
  • Nandy seems like a potential uniter of the party - but I fear she's not ruthless enough to kick out some of the bad lot. Although perhaps with a strong SC she'll grow into the role.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Gabs3 said:

    There have been several times over the last few years with Brexit Party + Tories on 50%+. I don't think PR is the panacea to right wing government some want it to be.

    I can't speak for all pragmatic lefties, but for this one it's the bloody principle. It simply works better at mediating political opinions and platforms. And yes, the fascists should get five seats and be exposed for what they are. And yes, there will be right wing governments. But they will be in place because a majority of voters supported them. Fair's fair.


  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Any polls tonight?

    *shakes head very slowly*
  • Any polls tonight?

    Are you serious
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019

    Is there a graph of psbr from 2010 brown to now showing the decline under successive tory govts. My stepson does not believe me..

    Is this what you are after:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    You can smooth it by selecting year near the top.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,906

    Really don't like Priti Patel though, find her deeply sinister

    I forgot her, of course. Easily done,
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Can’t really take Ayesha seriously when she was busy palling around with Sarkar, taking selfies with her etc. Ash Sarkar was a communist back then, but Ayesha was still happy to associate with her. Her retweet of Guido also screams ‘people I don’t like’ shouldn’t be given a platform.
    Still, someone, indeed everyone who wants some kind of left of centre government before mid century, needs to tell these fools to fuck off and join the SWP where they belong.
    That ‘someone’ should be an individual who isn’t a hypocrite though. It should also be someone who was actually involved in an election winning machine. Ayesha talks like she wasn’t an advisor to guy who also lost an election.
    What do you mean? She didn't advise Corbyn so has no idea what he was up to or you would expect that someone who talks like she does couldn't possibly have advised Corbyn - too posh, too clever, too centrist?
    She was Ed Miliband adviser in 2015.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Hmm. Important and key figure in the Jezza project, highlighting Nandy?

    Something afoot?

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1205857976109731841

    Lisa Nandy would make an excellent leader IMO. She's a little lightweight at the moment, but that would improve over time.

    She was always promising to vote for the withdrawal agreement until the last possible moment when she found an excuse not to.

    If Labour need a can't make my mind up ditherer she would be perfect..
    What Tony Benn would have called a weathercock.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Corbyn again and again and again. But if Labour wakes up most of these voters seem like they could come back.
    On what basis do you think you can magic away Corbyn and momentum then suddenly all these voters will flock back in five, more likely 10 years

    Boris will not be sitting back, he will be very pro active in the north and of course Brexit will not feature in 5 years time

    It is impossible for anyone to say where the UK will be in 5 years but the idea stale socialism will appeal once Corbyn has gone is for the birds. A new centre left party is needed that takes pride in the country and promotes business and itself

    We have one example of this already and Boris has just now parked his tanks on that lawn.

    Of course the other example is Nicola Sturgeon but she solely promotes Scotland
    It seems likely Labour will waste the next five years by electing a younger Corbyn.

    Yes, it's unlikely that the huge number of new members who joined for Corbyn are now going to turn around and say "we were wrong, what Labour needs is a new Blair". The only way you are going to counter that is either get an even huger number of moderates to join the party, or wait until successive failures see the far-left get bored and drift away.
    There is always the off chance that, if you wait long enough, the far-left will grow up
    I wasn't suggesting that they will grow up, but maybe they will get bored and find another vehicle for the inevitable proletarian revolution.
    vehicle = space ship? Just askin'
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    I presume that means even more power in the hands of the new members.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,906


    Things we've been told over the years:

    Boris won't win in London...

    Boris won't win in London twice...

    Boris won't be in the Cabinet...

    Boris won't be Prime Minister...

    Boris won't get a Brexit Deal...

    Boris won't win an election...

    Boris won't win a landslide...

    Betting against Boris has worked out not necessarily to his critics' advantage.

    This rather underlines my point though, Johnson is very good at winning things - but he's very poor at actually changing anything.

    My view of him is that he's only interested in winning, he's not actually interested in changing the country. But we will see.
    No, that was Cameron. Boris won't be content without being a great PM.
    According to the brainwashed multitude. Yes, he will succeed. And the country will go down the drain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Just watched "Bombshell", about bringing down the boss of FOX. Very well written and acted. Out here in January.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Is there a graph of psbr from 2010 brown to now showing the decline under successive tory govts. My stepson does not believe me..

    That'll be because social media before the election was full of stats about growth in the overall debt, not the annual borrowing requirement.
  • Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Any polls tonight?

    Momentum need straws to grasp.....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    You're not really that surprised are you? Lansman's Loonies know that they're right and everyone else is not only wrong but so stupid that they think they're right ha ha ha
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited December 2019

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    (You'll have to type the link in manually)

    Sedgefield for instance.

    Labour vote in 2017 was 22,202, 2019 was 15096. Seems conceivable some of those 3518 votes came from Labour (1763 voted UKIP in 2017 so that might be the other half).

    But Labour lost 7106 votes, so 7107 - 3518 = 3589, which just about what the Tory vote went up by.

    So I think it's fair to say that seat was lost due to a combination of Corbyn and Brexit. Both of these issues need resolving and fast. Phil Wilson said it was down to Corbyn on the doorstep.

    It is going to take years. Momentum has to be neutralised and that is not on the horizon
    You seem to be forgetting that governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. Labour were only 2% behind the Tories 2 years ago even with Corbyn as leader. I am detecting a great deal of hubris behind some of the Tory posters since Thursday and we all know what usually follows.

    It is entirely possible that Labour choose an electable leader and Brexit/Johnson don't deliver on their promises over the next five years. In those circumstances I could easily see Labour getting their vote up into the low 40s. Things could look very different indeed come the next GE.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Hmm. Important and key figure in the Jezza project, highlighting Nandy?

    Something afoot?

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1205857976109731841

    The daughter of a Marxist about to emerge from years as a 'moderate' sleep agent?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    This is what you're up against and they really do control most of the levers of power within the party. Corbyn has destroyed Labour from within and Boris from without.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Old news I’m guessing, but I only just saw it

    https://twitter.com/gavinshuker/status/1205335750650273799?s=21
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    Jeremy Corbyn's assessment of the election result:

    "We won the argument, but I regret we didn’t convert that into a majority for change
    Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    alex_ said:

    Can’t really take Ayesha seriously when she was busy palling around with Sarkar, taking selfies with her etc. Ash Sarkar was a communist back then, but Ayesha was still happy to associate with her. Her retweet of Guido also screams ‘people I don’t like’ shouldn’t be given a platform.
    Still, someone, indeed everyone who wants some kind of left of centre government before mid century, needs to tell these fools to fuck off and join the SWP where they belong.
    That ‘someone’ should be an individual who isn’t a hypocrite though. It should also be someone who was actually involved in an election winning machine. Ayesha talks like she wasn’t an advisor to guy who also lost an election.
    What do you mean? She didn't advise Corbyn so has no idea what he was up to or you would expect that someone who talks like she does couldn't possibly have advised Corbyn - too posh, too clever, too centrist?
    She was Ed Miliband adviser in 2015.
    So she has nothing to do with this loser, just the last one?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I'm looking for the polling on which GE pledges cut through from each party, can someone do me a favour and point me in the right direction?
  • Any polls tonight?

    Are you serious
    Well it’s possible. I seem to remember after previous elections there are usually follow up polls? Wasn’t Corbyn ahead of May days after he lost?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's assessment of the election result:

    "We won the argument, but I regret we didn’t convert that into a majority for change
    Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change

    He definitely achieved a majority for changing Jeremy Corbyn
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
    By not doing enough to defrock Corbyn?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MaxPB said:

    This is what you're up against and they really do control most of the levers of power within the party. Corbyn has destroyed Labour from within and Boris from without.
    Labour were the frog in water slowly boiled to death

    People told them and told them - now look at where they are
  • Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
    By not doing enough to defrock Corbyn?
    By nominating him in the first place?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    OllyT said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    (You'll have to type the link in manually)

    Sedgefield for instance.

    Labour vote in 2017 was 22,202, 2019 was 15096. Seems conceivable some of those 3518 votes came from Labour (1763 voted UKIP in 2017 so that might be the other half).

    But Labour lost 7106 votes, so 7107 - 3518 = 3589, which just about what the Tory vote went up by.

    So I think it's fair to say that seat was lost due to a combination of Corbyn and Brexit. Both of these issues need resolving and fast. Phil Wilson said it was down to Corbyn on the doorstep.

    It is going to take years. Momentum has to be neutralised and that is not on the horizon
    You seem to be forgetting that governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. Labour were only 2% behind the Tories 2 years ago even with Corbyn as leader. I am detecting a great deal of hubris behind some of the Tory posters since Thursday and we all know what usually follows.

    It is entirely possible that Labour choose an electable leader and Brexit/Johnson don't deliver on their promises over the next five years. In those circumstances I could easily see Labour getting their vote up into the low 40s. Things could look very different indeed come the next GE.
    I presume you've bet the house on that then. Good odds I presume.
  • https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1205914348885024768

    There are good elements in here - but why do I sniff a sense of denial?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Mango said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    fp for OLBoy

    To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.

    It's grim for Labour.

    One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.

    She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".

    Now she tells me she is in "shock".

    I mean, what can you do?!

    Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.

    Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.
    The parallels with Leavers are obvious.
    And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.
    This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.
    I thought the accepted PB description was "diehard Remainer"?
    Which - of course - is definitely a Christmas Remainer
  • Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    edited December 2019
    Now the election is over, perhaps we can have a serious discussion about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party and people on the left can find their consciences that were buried beneath their tribal politics. For those who think it is over egged, here is a round-up.
    In Britain, a formal complaint about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party from the Jewish Labour Movement was leaked last week. It makes for some sobering reading. Here are a few of the incidents these Jewish socialists have compiled: In March 2019, a Labour councilor made a joke about “Jew process”; she also rewrote the “First they came for the Jews …” trope to include “they came for the anti-Zionists”; one Jewish Labour member claims that at local Labour Party meetings, he was called “a Tory Jew,” “Zio-scum,” a “child killer,” and told “to shut the fuck up, Jew” and “Hitler was right.” One former Labour councilor was told to “go home and count your money”; one Labour member was told that the Jewish Labour Movement was “financed and controlled by the Israeli government.” Two Labour delegates at the annual party conference in 2018 averred that Jews are “subhuman” and that “they should be grateful we don’t force them to eat bacon at breakfast every day.” These are in reports from Labour Party officials.

    In the broader Labour movement, it’s just as bad. In 2016, at the Oxford University Labour Club, Auschwitz was described as “a cash cow.” Online, Jews have been described as “bent-nosed manipulative liars”; there have been claims that Zionists ran the Nazi death camps; and former Labour MP Luciana Berger was subjected to horrifying abuse in 2018, such as “we shall rid the Jews who are a cancer on all of us.” Another Jewish Labour MP, Ruth Smeeth, was called a “yid cunt” and a “fucking traitor.” Margaret Hodge MP has been described on pro-Corbyn Facebook pages as “Zionist bitch,” a “zionist remedial cancer,” “under orders from her paymasters in Israel.” She has received abusively anti-Semitic emails, among which include the following: “Isn’t better [sic] that troublemakers like yourself return to where you and your religion comes from. If you think about it in detail, your are the ones who are racist, by telling us what we must do to please you. We are in our homeland.” And: “Your smear campaign in defense of a racist ethno-state would make Goebbels proud.”
    Addressing this must be the first act of a new Labour leader. Keeping the pressure on will show Tories weren't just interested in it as an election issue.

  • maaarsh said:

    Hmm. Important and key figure in the Jezza project, highlighting Nandy?

    Something afoot?

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1205857976109731841

    The daughter of a Marxist about to emerge from years as a 'moderate' sleep agent?
    This is a pretty rubbish attack it must be said
  • Do they? They want social democratic economics (welfare state etc) but a harder edge on social issues (e.g. crime).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited December 2019
    Sounds as if Corbyn is refusing to go

    Time labour members took drastic action and resigned the whip en masse and formed their own party with their leader. It only takes just over 100 for Corbyn to cease to be leader of the opposition
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,721
    That article by Andrew Sullivan referred to earlier is spot on.
    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/andrew-sullivan-boris-johnsons-winning-formula.html
    It is more wide-ranging than the title suggests, with lessons for American politics and an assessment of the new anti-semitism.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
    If they had caused more problems you would not be in this mess
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    edited December 2019

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
  • Floater said:

    Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
    If they had caused more problems you would not be in this mess
    If Labour had been prepared to listen, we would not be in this mess. I regret many of us were too arrogant to do so.
  • Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
  • Sounds as if Corbyn is refusing to go

    Time labour members took drastic action and resigned the whip en masse and formed their own party with their leader. It only takes just over 100 for Corbyn to cease to be leader of the opposition

    He says in the article Labour will soon have a new leader.

    But I do agree he should go now.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    Any idea how much that might cost, what sort of toll could be charged?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    What is their actual basis for this continued claim that they "won all the arguments"?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019
    I worry about us centrists. The LibDems played a good hand incredibly poorly from c. 6 months ago. We made so many mistakes.

    Labour are about to go into a internecine war. I suspect, but can't be sure, that the centre ground will win.

    However, I'm not at ALL sure that it's correct for the Blairite contingent to be blaming this all on Jeremy Corbyn. It could be argued that a significantly large reason for their defeat is that the party wasn't sufficiently Leave. By dithering around and embracing Remain they alienated the working class northern vote. And they're the ones who lost them the election.
  • As a Durhamite conservative leaver Darren Grimes must be one of the happiest people in Britain at the moment. His stuff is not usually my cup of tea but I did appreciate this one!

    https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1205621533332398081
  • Sounds as if Corbyn is refusing to go

    Time labour members took drastic action and resigned the whip en masse and formed their own party with their leader. It only takes just over 100 for Corbyn to cease to be leader of the opposition

    He says in the article Labour will soon have a new leader.

    But I do agree he should go now.
    Yes a Corbynista. As Theresa said 'nothing changes'
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.
  • Telegraph: "Boris Johnson plans radical overhaul of civil service to guarantee 'people's Brexit'

    So it begins. Cummings mad scheming set to destroy uk government.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
    I can't see the bombs being a problem as much as the Irish sea being an incredibly deep trench.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    When someone says "blah, blah, blah, blah, but we lost and of course i accept my responsibility for that..." you can guarantee that they don't hold themselves responsible at all.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Do they? They want social democratic economics (welfare state etc) but a harder edge on social issues (e.g. crime).
    You mean, tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime? 🙂

    If Johnson has any sense he'll turn the Tories into something resembling New Labour, minus the luvvies, Europhilia and foreign wars. Occupy the centre-left's territory and leave the sensible wing of Labour with nowhere left to go except to join him.
  • Johnson vs civil service.

    hmm.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    ClippP said:


    Things we've been told over the years:

    Boris won't win in London...

    Boris won't win in London twice...

    Boris won't be in the Cabinet...

    Boris won't be Prime Minister...

    Boris won't get a Brexit Deal...

    Boris won't win an election...

    Boris won't win a landslide...

    Betting against Boris has worked out not necessarily to his critics' advantage.

    This rather underlines my point though, Johnson is very good at winning things - but he's very poor at actually changing anything.

    My view of him is that he's only interested in winning, he's not actually interested in changing the country. But we will see.
    No, that was Cameron. Boris won't be content without being a great PM.
    According to the brainwashed multitude. Yes, he will succeed. And the country will go down the drain.
    I wasn't commenting on whether he'll succeed or not - it is a statement on his character. Cameron 'I think I'd be rather good at it' just wanted the bragging rights of getting the top job. Boris' wants to get in because he has grand plans. Whether that thrills or terrifies you, it is clearly a fact. He's not just going to walk around Number 10 soaking up the atmosphere.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    The moderates have a nigh on impossible task - at least in the short to medium term.

    They are out for years more
  • https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1205973656863678465?s=20

    Angela Rayner might get union support - which is somewhat surprising.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited December 2019

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    You really need to invest in some atlases at Ulitsa Savushina. The Borders are on the other side of Scotland from where the bridge would be.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    Any idea how much that might cost, what sort of toll could be charged?
    Quite a lot of detail in this Wiki article. Costs in the region of £20 billion, if we apply the rule of "and you probably need to double the initial estimate when someone's trying to stoke up interest" then it's still not completely infeasible. Certainly the engineering is possible (will mean spending a lot of money cleaning up WW2 munitions!). May not make actual economic sense, but that's a different issue. The symbolism is important here.

    Interestingly it's something that the DUP and Sturgeon are in agreement on! And I do wonder if Boris is tempted.
  • Gabs3 said:

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
    I can't see the bombs being a problem as much as the Irish sea being an incredibly deep trench.
    It would also be the longest bridge in the world
  • Do they? They want social democratic economics (welfare state etc) but a harder edge on social issues (e.g. crime).
    You mean, tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime? 🙂

    If Johnson has any sense he'll turn the Tories into something resembling New Labour, minus the luvvies, Europhilia and foreign wars. Occupy the centre-left's territory and leave the sensible wing of Labour with nowhere left to go except to join him.
    I think you'll find social democracy can bridge those elements quite well.
  • Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    Any idea how much that might cost, what sort of toll could be charged?
    I was at the confederation bridge connecting Prince Edward Island to New Brunswick in Canada in September. It was opened in 1997 and spans 8 miles and is the Worlds longest bridge over ice covered water.

    It cost 1.3 billion Canadian dollars and cost 47.75 dollars (£28) return
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Gabs3 said:

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
    I can't see the bombs being a problem as much as the Irish sea being an incredibly deep trench.
    It would also be the longest bridge in the world
    Are we not allowed to think big any more?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    (You'll have to type the link in manually)

    Sedgefield for instance.

    Labour vote in 2017 was 22,202, 2019 was 15096. Seems conceivable some of those 3518 votes came from Labour (1763 voted UKIP in 2017 so that might be the other half).

    But Labour lost 7106 votes, so 7107 - 3518 = 3589, which just about what the Tory vote went up by.

    So I think it's fair to say that seat was lost due to a combination of Corbyn and Brexit. Both of these issues need resolving and fast. Phil Wilson said it was down to Corbyn on the doorstep.

    It is going to take years. Momentum has to be neutralised and that is not on the horizon
    You seem to be forgetting that governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. Labour were only 2% behind the Tories 2 years ago even with Corbyn as leader. I am detecting a great deal of hubris behind some of the Tory posters since Thursday and we all know what usually follows.

    It is entirely possible that Labour choose an electable leader and Brexit/Johnson don't deliver on their promises over the next five years. In those circumstances I could easily see Labour getting their vote up into the low 40s. Things could look very different indeed come the next GE.
    I presume you've bet the house on that then. Good odds I presume.
    I think it's well worth a shot. As I say Labour polled 40% under Corbyn 2 years ago. By the next GE the Tories will have been in power 14 years, Corbyn's replacement is unlikely to have the same baggage and many of the seats the Tories gained on Thursday could easily switch back if Brexit hasn't delivered the goods for them.

    I didn't vote Labour by the way but disastrous as the result was for them they still polled over 10 million votes to the Tories 13m.

    The electorate is fickle and volatile. You clearly can't see anything going right for Labour or anything going wrong for Johnson over the coming years. I can.
  • I worry about us centrists. The LibDems played a good hand incredibly poorly from c. 6 months ago. We made so many mistakes.

    Labour are about to go into a internecine war. I suspect, but can't be sure, that the centre ground will win.

    However, I'm not at ALL sure that it's correct for the Blairite contingent to be blaming this all on Jeremy Corbyn. It could be argued that a significantly large reason for their defeat is that the party wasn't sufficiently Leave. By dithering around and embracing Remain they alienated the working class northern vote. And they're the ones who lost them the election.

    When historians look back on this period they will see with crystal clear clarity that Jeremy Corbyn became and stayed leader just long enough to both cause and guarantee Brexit.
  • alex_ said:

    What is their actual basis for this continued claim that they "won all the arguments"?
    There's a guy in Shoreditch with a beard, who, in between forking avocado on toast into his mouth, says it is true.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.

    The new Labour leader should accept Brexit but commit to Rejoin ASAP.
  • I worry about us centrists. The LibDems played a good hand incredibly poorly from c. 6 months ago. We made so many mistakes.

    Labour are about to go into a internecine war. I suspect, but can't be sure, that the centre ground will win.

    However, I'm not at ALL sure that it's correct for the Blairite contingent to be blaming this all on Jeremy Corbyn. It could be argued that a significantly large reason for their defeat is that the party wasn't sufficiently Leave. By dithering around and embracing Remain they alienated the working class northern vote. And they're the ones who lost them the election.

    When historians look back on this period they will see with crystal clear clarity that Jeremy Corbyn became and stayed leader just long enough to both cause and guarantee Brexit.
    THIS!!! A thousand times.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Corbyn Labour seems to have suffered from many problems and overwhelmingly he is to blame for Labour's failure but I do think those that pushed a second referendum to be Labour's policy on Brexit have something to answer for too.

    Many of those on the right of the party should reflect on that, just as much as the left need to reflect on their failures too.

    Really the whole party is fucked.

    I don't think there is anyway that JC can be blameless, he is the problem, him and his cohorts.
    He is totally to blame - but my point is that the right of the party also have caused problems.
    By not doing enough to defrock Corbyn?
    By nominating him in the first place?
    Margaret Beckett and? Can't see any other obvious centrists but I can clearly recognise many of the names as very much on the left of the party. The cancer has obviously been present for some time. There was also much protestation from the right but the genie was out of the bottle
  • Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's assessment of the election result:

    "We won the argument, but I regret we didn’t convert that into a majority for change
    Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change

    I'm disappointed Labour didn't drop below 200 seats, as per the exit poll.

    I really wanted to taste that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Gabs3 said:

    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.

    The new Labour leader should accept Brexit but commit to Rejoin ASAP.
    How does that accept Brexit?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Telegraph: "Boris Johnson plans radical overhaul of civil service to guarantee 'people's Brexit'

    So it begins. Cummings mad scheming set to destroy uk government.

    Can somebody get Cummings to go and have his operation?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
    Maybe you should read more than the headline. The only person 'deriding' anything was one engineer saying it was 'crazy' to cost something that hadn't yet been designed, and said 'costs always go up'. No shit Sherlock. Nothing whatever about unexploded ordinance. As I said, PR fluff.
  • Gabs3 said:

    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.

    The new Labour leader should accept Brexit but commit to Rejoin ASAP.
    And that wins back Northern seats how?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's assessment of the election result:

    "We won the argument, but I regret we didn’t convert that into a majority for change
    Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change

    I'm disappointed Labour didn't drop below 200 seats, as per the exit poll.

    I really wanted to taste that.
    That's a rather unpleasant remark. I don't think grinding down your 'enemy' is what this country needs right now. So go and vent your hatred on something else please.

    And, besides, it meant I won plenty of money :smiley:

    (Looked very dicey with the exit poll so I was rather relieved that Labour crept over the 200)
  • It's a mistake to expect defeated Labour members and activists to come to terms with it immediately.

    They need to work through the seven stages of grief first, which could take weeks or months. If they don't they will pick a leader that accords with whatever stage of grief they've reached at the time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234


    Things we've been told over the years:

    Boris won't win in London...

    Boris won't win in London twice...

    Boris won't be in the Cabinet...

    Boris won't be Prime Minister...

    Boris won't get a Brexit Deal...

    Boris won't win an election...

    Boris won't win a landslide...

    Betting against Boris has worked out not necessarily to his critics' advantage.

    This rather underlines my point though, Johnson is very good at winning things - but he's very poor at actually changing anything.

    My view of him is that he's only interested in winning, he's not actually interested in changing the country. But we will see.
    No, that was Cameron. Boris won't be content without being a great PM.
    The desire and the ability are two separate things. Boris may have the ability. And he may not.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Gabs3 said:

    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.

    The new Labour leader should accept Brexit but commit to Rejoin ASAP.
    How on earth can that work?

    I agree with Heseltine. I think Labour need to be a Leave party and move on with how best to make it work.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    rpjs said:

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    You really need to invest in some atlases at Ulitsa Savushina. The Borders are on the other side of Scotland from where the bridge would be.
    Oh. :) I don't get there very often to be fair.
  • RobD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Interesting someone above has mentioned the Northern Ireland bridge. It's something that isn't going away - here's the DUP bringing it up just now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/build-bridge-scotland-bolster-union-dup-urges-boris-johnson/amp/

    I think it's a great idea. Great for the Borders, which is a much overlooked and beautiful part of Scotland, and great for Northern Ireland.

    It's a terrible idea. The Irish Sea is fall of unexploded WW2 bombs.
    That's PR fluff. Clearly you'd get the all clear on bombs before work started.

    How much did Boris give himself as his infrastructure slush fund in the manifesto? Was it 80bn or am I making that up? The bridge would cost 15bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/15/boris-johnson-bonkers-plan-for-15bn-pound-bridge-derided-by-engineers

    I have more sources should you not like these ones
    I can't see the bombs being a problem as much as the Irish sea being an incredibly deep trench.
    It would also be the longest bridge in the world
    Are we not allowed to think big any more?
    Hangzhou Bay Bridge is 35.673 km (22 miles). Believe this is longer than the route under discussion. An alternative Mull of Kintyre to County Antrim route is even shorter (19 km / 12 miles) but doesn't seem to generate as much interest.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    The chimera of Brexit will lead to a lot of disappointment.

    The centre ground must be ready no later than 12 months from now to present an alternative agenda.

    Hold your horses. What we really need to be ready for, as left-liberal internationalists, is facing down fascism in 5 to 10 years, when this "Tories against Thatcherism" has been shown to be utter bollocks. When the betrayal sinks in, those Red Wall Tories are going to be looking for solutions. Someone will be peddling a simplistic fascist one. We'd better have an alternative ready that can get the support of business and at least some of the media.

    All this was inevitable from 24/6/16...
This discussion has been closed.