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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Labour isn’t working in Workington or pretty much any

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON likely to underperform exit poll as there will be more unpleasantness in London and SE. Still fancy it in Coventry S though

    Likely maj 60-70. Still happy :lol:
  • Ian Murray, SLab: ”too early” to say regarding Edinburgh South
  • Labour are fucked aren't they?

    The ones who have clung on in the North will be desperate for a pro-Brexit position but London will be trying to keep Labour as a remain party
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,243
    Labour hold Bootle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    Tories hold Carlisle by over 20%. SLab were bussing activists down there, and away from Glasgow marginals last weekend.

    Absolute class management of the ground game.

    Using Corbyn's MRP? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    edited December 2019

    Tonight is all about Labour. Honestly, I am delighted to watch it lose so massively. The scale of the defeat is such that even the self-indulgent membership may realise that feelgood Corbynism is not the way to win. I reckon it’s a 30% shot.

    I genuinely hope the sensible folk like yourself can get back in control of the Labour Party.

    Watching Eddie Spheroids on ITV, I am sitting here thinking, FFS, why is he on some s##t dancing programme while we have Boris, Jezza and Jo.
  • Con gain Clwyd South. Swing 7.5 %

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    You can travel from the Welsh border to Llandudno without going through a labour constituency for the first time for as long as I can remember
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    Worth saying that the Tory share of the vote in Peterborough was ever so slightly down on 2017. It was the Brexit Party wot won it for them.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Not what happened.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    I find them nauseating, their sense of entitlement. People don't automatically have a right to the same standard of living as previous generations.
  • This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Indeed but hopefully Channel 4 will be privatised after this and won't be so biased again ;)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,264
    Wonderful to see the DUP being hammered
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Alistair Campbell on BBC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Hartlepool split opponent vote I think
  • This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    edited December 2019
    Clydebank:
    SNP 22,396
    SLD 1,890
    SCon 6,436
    SLab 12,843

    SNP HOLD

    Big increase in majority from 2,000

    Lab to SNP swing 8%
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Thinking that Leicester East is the largest ever Lab>Con swing?
  • (Hoho...timing posted this as the previous thread closed) What a night to leave my first message. I do solemnly swear to keep my comments focused on analysing what happened...and discourse on what might happen next. To not argue the toss about policies or values.
    Disillusioned Lab member. A half way competent leader who wasn’t clearly morally compromised would have meant I believe to at least being largest party.
    I think’normality’ has returned tonight. If your leader has catastrophic personal ratings, if your party is not trusted on the economy, if voters think your opponents are better on tne NHS, then those big poll leads....yeah they are very probably right
  • Leicester Liz wins!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    tlg86 said:

    Worth saying that the Tory share of the vote in Peterborough was ever so slightly down on 2017. It was the Brexit Party wot won it for them.

    BXP down on the by election though. Think Labour candidate shite
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    RobD said:

    Tories hold Carlisle by over 20%. SLab were bussing activists down there, and away from Glasgow marginals last weekend.

    Absolute class management of the ground game.

    Using Corbyn's MRP? ;)
    FocalData's MRP had it as a tie.
  • Andrew said:

    Thinking that Leicester East is the largest ever Lab>Con swing?

    Maybe, but a Labour hold so at least Pulpstar's mortgage is safe.
  • Brom said:

    Tories fucked up a bit in Stockton North.

    Stockton north must have been well outside any realistic possibility.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Small swing to Labour in Rushcliffe. Tory maj 7,643.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000908
  • Andy_JS said:

    Con gain Clwyd South.

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    Alyn & Deeside and Delyn will be interesting.
    Both gains I’m sure. Clean sweep in NE Wales,
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Is Barnesian not here tonight? I hope he's not too depressed, I argued against his model but I know he worked hard on it so kudos for that.

    Hopefully Correct Horse Battery is OK!
    Yeah. He was disappointed but philosophical when he went to bed some time ago.
    Good to hear.

    There are some very devastated Corbynites on my Facebook feed tonight.

    I never predicted the size or scale of the likely Con victory, but I'm genuinely surprised by how many of them were expecting to wake up to JC as PM tomorrow.
    His big mistake was declaring war on social democrats and the centre-left.
    Ah yes, by filling his shadow cabinet with them. Where they had much greater leeway than ever under the micromanager Blair. Which they then resigned from en masse to force him out after less than a year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    Con gain Clwyd South. Swing 7.5 %

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    You can travel from the Welsh border to Llandudno without going through a labour constituency for the first time for as long as I can remember
    You could have taken a boat from the river Dee.
  • speedy2 said:

    After 20 results the swing is 7%.
    Majority of 104.

    Is that UNS? My crude model is predicting 168. It's Wales-heavy at the moment, though.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085

    (Hoho...timing posted this as the previous thread closed) What a night to leave my first message. I do solemnly swear to keep my comments focused on analysing what happened...and discourse on what might happen next. To not argue the toss about policies or values.
    Disillusioned Lab member. A half way competent leader who wasn’t clearly morally compromised would have meant I believe to at least being largest party.
    I think’normality’ has returned tonight. If your leader has catastrophic personal ratings, if your party is not trusted on the economy, if voters think your opponents are better on tne NHS, then those big poll leads....yeah they are very probably right

    welcome!
  • Con gain Clwyd South. Swing 7.5 %

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    You can travel from the Welsh border to Llandudno without going through a labour constituency for the first time for as long as I can remember
    Great, I'm glad things like that are important to you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,617
    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    Problem now for Con in Scotland isn't boundaries.

    It's tactical voting.
  • Ian Murray: we knocked 11,000 doors in Edinburgh South and all the feedback was about Jeremy Corbyn.”
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Brexit Party were only 8% off winning in Barnsley East.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Con gain Clwyd South.

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    Alyn & Deeside and Delyn will be interesting.
    I hope so, since I'm on those.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After 78 results average swing 5%, a majority of 64.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,243
    Labour hold Birkenhead. Who on here suggested that Frank Field would have a chance? No chance in Merseyside. Its still a Labour fortress.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Is Barnesian not here tonight? I hope he's not too depressed, I argued against his model but I know he worked hard on it so kudos for that.

    Hopefully Correct Horse Battery is OK!
    Yeah. He was disappointed but philosophical when he went to bed some time ago.
    Good to hear.

    There are some very devastated Corbynites on my Facebook feed tonight.

    I never predicted the size or scale of the likely Con victory, but I'm genuinely surprised by how many of them were expecting to wake up to JC as PM tomorrow.
    His big mistake was declaring war on social democrats and the centre-left.
    Ah yes, by filling his shadow cabinet with them. Where they had much greater leeway than ever under the micromanager Blair. Which they then resigned from en masse to force him out after less than a year.
    Clearly Corbyn was a tremendous success in your eyes.
  • When the dust has settled, we ought to do a debunking post-mortem of reports such as turnout up, the youthquake, and leaders visiting Labour target seats.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Jess Phillips would be a terrible choice as leader, thinks she’s the centre of the story
  • kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    To an extent, though I'd say university educated and paid too little to get what previous generations took for granted in an alienating office job is no less working class than a plumber doing well for himself etc. It's easy to overemphasise cultural factors (an avocado costs pennies in the Tesco discount pile...) and forget the real practical facts of daily life. We shouldn't haveva view of class that's frozen since the interwar period...
    But always able to go back to mummy and daddy. It is easy to be that kind of rebel.
    I feel a song coming on.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    Tice lost Hartlepool for Brexit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489

    Clydebank:
    SNP 22,396
    SLD 1,890
    SCon 6,436
    SLab 12,843

    SNP HOLD

    Big increase in majority from 2,000

    Lab to SNP swing 8%

    But still 7,000 votes down on 2015.
  • The number of "safe" Labour seats going "marginal".....

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205308782861070337?s=20
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Exit poll had Hartlepool as Tory.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Henrietta said:

    speedy2 said:

    After 20 results the swing is 7%.
    Majority of 104.

    Is that UNS? My crude model is predicting 168. It's Wales-heavy at the moment, though.
    UNS.
  • Campbell doing his dinger about Momentum on BBC1.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    The boundary commission will have to start again. I doubt there is much party advantage in it, on this emerging new geography.
  • Lab hold Hartlepool on a split Con/BXP vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Artist said:

    Exit poll had Hartlepool as Tory.

    Good news for any who followed me into the BFE BXP <0.5 seats bet
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 599

    Brom said:

    Tories fucked up a bit in Stockton North.

    Stockton north must have been well outside any realistic possibility.
    126th on Tory target list.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Labour "its too early to declare the result" lol
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Brom said:

    Jess Phillips would be a terrible choice as leader, thinks she’s the centre of the story

    I agree, terrible on the TV tonight.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092
    LAB hold Hartlepool. Tice costing CON another seat, perhaps, but earning me a few quid for my BXP under 0.5 bet
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Amazing admission by Jon Lansman that Momentum are not interested in what people think.
  • speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    Quite the opposite! Larger constituencies actually cripples the Scottish Tories.
  • Con gain Blackpool South
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Blackpool south falls
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    edited December 2019

    Lab hold Hartlepool on a split Con/BXP vote.

    Kerching! (at 1.9, which was nice).
  • Brom said:

    Jess Phillips would be a terrible choice as leader, thinks she’s the centre of the story

    Agreed. I would not wish to be derogatory about a lady but I'm afraid pouty shouty Jess is no nearer to PM material than I am.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Andy_JS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    I find them nauseating, their sense of entitlement. People don't automatically have a right to the same standard of living as previous generations.
    Stagnant incomes and lack of social opportunity in both communities fuel the Populism of both left and right. True in Putney as well as Leigh.
  • ITV “emotional Jess Philips”
    It’s all she does. Speak with warble in voice, look on verge of tears. It’s a schtick.
  • Con gain Clwyd South. Swing 7.5 %

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    You can travel from the Welsh border to Llandudno without going through a labour constituency for the first time for as long as I can remember
    Great, I'm glad things like that are important to you.
    You do not understand just how much we have suffered under Wales labour for decades and this is a monumental moment in Welsh politics and long over due
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    Night all and thanks everyone - this has been my first GE on PB and the insight and good humour (mostly!) on all sides has made this election more interesting and enjoyable.

    As for the results, as a sometime Lib Dem (not having voted for them since 2010, although I would do so in a seat where they had a chance) I'm used to losing :wink: If there was going to be a Con majority then a big one with Labour getting stuffed and hopefully changing direction was probably the best outcome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Floater said:

    Labour "its too early to declare the result" lol

    I don’t think the Tories will declare just yet. They need 400 here.
  • Con gain Blackpool South

    This is a routing of epic proportions.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    That's FPTP for you.

    The SDP/Liberal Alliance got 22/650 seats (3.4%) on 25.4% of the vote in 1987.

    PS Redrawing the boundaries for electoral gain is gerrymandering.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Lansman says that Corbyn "maximised support in Leave areas".

    What a total fool.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Lab hold Canterbury
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,033
    57% turnout in Blackpool. A pitiful place.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    it looks like the LD vote share may have increased across the board, and same with the greens? both seem to be doing well in vote share so far. not that it's much comfort.

    I very much hope Boris will govern as a one nation tory. I remain somewhat optimistic that he will.

    Labour really need to come to some sort of alliance with LDs and Greens, back PR, and pick a decent leader. However i'm sceptical it will.
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP HOLD

    Turnout up

    Huge increase in Maj
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    With 82 results in, swing now 6%.
    It bounces around 5-6% now, a majority between 64-88.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Lab hold Canterbury. Shame!
  • Ave_it said:

    CON likely to underperform exit poll as there will be more unpleasantness in London and SE. Still fancy it in Coventry S though

    Likely maj 60-70. Still happy :lol:

    Getting closer to my prediction!

    Con gain Clwyd South. Swing 7.5 %

    The blue wall in North Wales has another brick.

    You can travel from the Welsh border to Llandudno without going through a labour constituency for the first time for as long as I can remember
    Superb news.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Canterbury Lab hold
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Glad I didn't put the Ogmore bet on!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132

    Con gain Blackpool South

    This is a routing of epic proportions.
    Surely Lancaster must be vulnerable if Blackpool South has gone?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Campbell is absolutely spot on why Labour lost.
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP HOLD

    Turnout up

    Huge increase in Maj

    Ian Murray to stand alone? (Again).
  • This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
    The press has made sexism, racism and xenophobia acceptable.

    Fox News makes millions of dollars diving people but their is resistance. This country has no resistance. Our entire economic system is rigged for the haves.

    Laura Kuennsburgs behaviour has been utterly disgraceful. The country is in a terrible state and its all David Camerons fault. The Tory Party destroyed communities in the 1980s for self-gain and have destroyed communities again in 2010s.

    We live in a popularism era where facts DON'T matter. Boris Johnson has lied repeatedly with zero scrutiny.

    The liberal democrats refusal to stand candidates down is costing seat by seat and ensuring we have Thaterites in westminster. We have absolute scumbags who care for themselves representing areas with 30% poverty. its utterly disgraceful
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 599
    Paging Ave It - Ogmore is a Lab hold.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    Con gain Blackpool South

    The place with the shortest life expectancy in England, I believe.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    ITV shade the Tories down another one to 365
  • Oh, that’s made my evening. Horrible bigot.
  • This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Indeed but hopefully Channel 4 will be privatised after this and won't be so biased again ;)
    Do you care at all about your country and that politics is an equal playing field?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    edited December 2019
    Lanark And Hamilton East
    SNP 22,244
    SCon 17,056
    SLab 10,736
    SLD 3,037

    SNP HOLD

    Was a 3-way marginal.

    Tories has told BBC that they were going to win this one! :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Jon Lansman is a deeply unimpressive figure. How come he’s become so influential?
  • This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
    Well it is usually the only newspaper on view in the bbc and local council offices I used to go into
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    NeilVW said:

    Paging Ave It - Ogmore is a Lab hold.

    Yes just seen that!
  • Northern Ireland Update

    Sinn Fein Win West Tyrone, Alliance Polled Very Good.

    Belfast South : Claire Hanna Will be elected around 3am.

    Foyle : Colum Eastwood will be elected around 3.30am.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,033
    humbugger said:

    Brom said:

    Jess Phillips would be a terrible choice as leader, thinks she’s the centre of the story

    Agreed. I would not wish to be derogatory about a lady but I'm afraid pouty shouty Jess is no nearer to PM material than I am.
    Jess is great, and loved by many. But it's probably correct to say she's not party-leader material. A bit like Corbyn wasn't, although they don't have many other similarities.
  • SNP hold Lanark, despite the rumours of the flute playing vote carrying the Tories home.
This discussion has been closed.