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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Labour isn’t working in Workington or pretty much anywhere

Corbyn's Labour isn't working in Workington. https://t.co/Oc3kc7DYfD

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AramintaMoonbeamQC

A new thread? Huge, if true.

RobD

I'm enjoying this.

numbertwelve

Third like Tory Swinson

ydoethur

Brave attempt at a pun.

Jonathan

Darlington goes Tory. Thanks Jeremy.

ydoethur

numbertwelve said:

Third like Tory Swinson

Still some optimists left!

Brom

Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/J_W____/status/1205297197828493312?s=20

Floater

Darlington - BOOM

Sean_F

A pity about Ruth Smeeth.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Darlo goes blue.

Floater

RobD said:

I'm enjoying this.

Fuck yeah!

IanB2

Too many new threads!

MikeL

Workington: Con 49%

Just stop and digest that number.

RobD

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1205298484347375617?s=20

Andrew

Ken Livingstone can't resist blaming the Jews.

tlg86

Brom said:

Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

Not so sure. I think he's a lucky politician. May, I think, would have won a majority had an election been triggered around March/April.

Floater

Must pace beer intake - but shit - this is amazing

Brom

IanB2 said:

Too many new threads!

Vanilla will break if we don’t keep moving forward!

Floater

Andrew said:

Ken Livingstone can't resist blaming the Jews.

Oh FFS really?

ydoethur

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Darlo goes blue.

Not even close.

Fleet_of_Worlds

Curtice’s rep on earth Huw Edwards passes on a warning that the Prof feels the exit poll may be overstating the swing to the SNP

speedy2

RobD said:

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

HYUFD

Curtice saying the exit poll overestimated the SNP rise by 6% based on Rutherglen

ydoethur

Floater said:

Must pace beer intake - but shit - this is amazing

It’s as well it wasn’t a pint for every Labour defeat.

IshmaelZ

ydoethur said:

Brave attempt at a pun.

Voters Stoke fires under Corbyn.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205298798156812288?s=20

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Darlo goes blue.

Not even close.

3,300 majority

kyf_100

Jonathan said:

Darlington goes Tory. Thanks Jeremy.

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!

TheScreamingEagles

Sorry, not sorry.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205299140290322432

Floater

Sky describe events as a "bloodbath" - are you listening Jezbollah?

Drutt

I was just about to put LABOUR ISN'T WORKINGTON on the old thread but I've realised that my BBC iplayer feed is three minutes behind.

speedy2

After 20 results the swing is 7%.
Majority of 104.

Fleet_of_Worlds

I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.

numbertwelve

Heidi chewing some sour grapes on BBC

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

Yokes

Absolutely stinking result for the DUP in Lady Hermon's old seat of North Down. Whilst an Alliance win isnt a shock, the majority is a blow for the DUP who have been cultivating that constituency for some time. .

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Canterbury going to a recount. Utter disaster, even in University seats.

Fleet_of_Worlds

I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.

Selebian

When I saw the exit poll I thought this was going to be dull. Silly me, the changes so far are nuts!

Andy_JS

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

TheScreamingEagles

I have to keep the threads coming quickly to manage the site traffic, because both Vanilla and Wordpress buckled earlier, so I'm trying to avoid long threads.

KentRising

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Canterbury going to a recount. Utter disaster, even in University seats.

??????

Pulpstar

Lab hold Knowsley

Jonathan

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

speedy2

After 21 results the swing is back up to 7.5%

It's been stuck at 7.5% almost since the start so far.

CorrectHorseBattery

The problem seems to have been ultimately Corbyn but also Brexit. No surprises there.

But the Lib Dems have done terribly, so I’m not entirely convinced of the merits of a centrist Labour winning a majority. They’d do a lot better though I’m sure - enough to force a Hung Parliament.

But I wonder if the Tories tacking to the left allows Labour to maintain at least some of its left wing stuff. Dump 90% of it but keep the anti austerity message.

But ultimately they need to avoid Brexit altogether. Accept the result and move on. But I think Labour need to do a lot of thinking.

I don’t think there are any easy answers beyond dumping Corbyn straight away

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.

My brother has cancelled his (genuine) plans to emigrate, and close the UK operation of his business.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299802885492736?s=20

Floater

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

There is a word for him.....

SandyRentool

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.

Special request from Sunil.

JBriskinindyref2

speedy2 said:

RobD said:

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

ydoethur

Jonathan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

You know who else had a problem winning democratic votes...

HaroldO

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I hope she does, she deserves to stand tall whilst Corbyn is routed.

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

rcs1000

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I've always liked her, and wouldn't be sad to see her as an MP

tlg86

Any SNP on here concerned that whilst they will increase their seats, that first results suggests that enthusiasm isn't quite what it was 4.5 years ago?

Foxy

Yokes said:

Absolutely stinking result for the DUP in Lady Hermon's old seat of North Down. Whilst an Alliance win isnt a shock, the majority is a blow for the DUP who have been cultivating that constituency for some time. .

Surely DUP and SF have both been discredited by their antics of the last few years, even in the eyes of the most Sectarian. NI needs a government!

isam

Lab down 20.7% in Jarrow

Casino_Royale

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

It's right.

Floater

Burgon looks shell shocked

TheScreamingEagles

Labour's next leader on Sky, almost on the verge of tears.

Floater

HaroldO said:

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I hope she does, she deserves to stand tall whilst Corbyn is routed.

Amen

TheValiant

Brom said:

Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

And Major and Hague and Howard. Maybe not IDS, we'll never know.

StuartDickson

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

She is much better than Swinson.

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I've always liked her, and wouldn't be sad to see her as an MP

And it will seriously annoy Momentum!

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Floater said:

Burgon looks shell shocked

Thanks, switched channel to see this.

Fleet_of_Worlds

SandyRentool said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.

Special request from Sunil.

In which case more power to her elbow. Amongst other things.

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

Well, the suggestion is it isn’t quite as emphatic as the exit poll. But it would be surprising on these figures if the SNP isn’t closer to 50 than 40.

Andy_JS

Labour down 20% in Jarrow. They hold the seat.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

Lab hold Knowsley

Phew! says Labour.....

Casino_Royale

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299802885492736?s=20

I saw that.

An extremely sore loser.

Jonathan

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The problem seems to have been ultimately Corbyn but also Brexit. No surprises there.

But the Lib Dems have done terribly, so I’m not entirely convinced of the merits of a centrist Labour winning a majority. They’d do a lot better though I’m sure - enough to force a Hung Parliament.

But I wonder if the Tories tacking to the left allows Labour to maintain at least some of its left wing stuff. Dump 90% of it but keep the anti austerity message.

But ultimately they need to avoid Brexit altogether. Accept the result and move on. But I think Labour need to do a lot of thinking.

I don’t think there are any easy answers beyond dumping Corbyn straight away

Corbyn has to go. Brexit was a factor of course, but amplified thousand fold mainly because Corbyn tried to triangulate a binary choice and ended up stuck in no-mans-land with a complex position he did not have the talent to sell.

Andy_JS

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Floater said:

Burgon looks shell shocked

Thanks, switched channel to see this.

What channel was he on? (Don't say ITV because you can't rewind).

Fleet_of_Worlds

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.

My brother has cancelled his (genuine) plans to emigrate, and close the UK operation of his business.

Bit tearful here. The relief.

funkhauser

What time is Dominic Grieve's meaningful vote in Beaconsfield?

StuartDickson

Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, says that Tory voters in Rutherglen voted Labour, artificially boosting the Labour vote in that seat.

nunu2

Pulpstar said:

Lab hold Knowsley

😂

Andrew

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour's next leader on Sky, almost on the verge of tears.

Chris Williamson?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

OK, early predictions for resignations:

Swinson
Corbyn
Richard Leonard

Time_to_Leave

Jonathan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

Give it time.

IshmaelZ

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

There is a word for him.....

which applies equally to Corbyn, and Corbyn's cronies and supporters and apologists in and outside parliament.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1205300380705406977?s=20

SouthamObserver

Congratulations to the Tories. It hurts me very hard to say, but Labour had to be destroyed. Please, now, hold Johnson in check. If you don’t, it could lead to something very nasty five years from now. Please, please govern for the country, not just for the blue rosette.

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have to keep the threads coming quickly to manage the site traffic, because both Vanilla and Wordpress buckled earlier, so I'm trying to avoid long threads.

Good plan

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Andy_JS said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Floater said:

Burgon looks shell shocked

Thanks, switched channel to see this.

What channel was he on? (Don't say ITV because you can't rewind).

Sky News

kyf_100

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Andy_JS said:

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

I have twenty quid on the Tories winning there but it's one bet I wouldn't mind losing. Next Lib Dem leader?

Brom

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1205300380705406977?s=20

Good, bugger off Lisa Forbes and her desperate plays for the Muslim vote. A short lived spell in parliament

HYUFD

Cities of London and Westminster rumoured to be a 3 way tie between Tories, Chuka and Labour

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

Well, the suggestion is it isn’t quite as emphatic as the exit poll. But it would be surprising on these figures if the SNP isn’t closer to 50 than 40.

I was wrong. I said 41.

Andy_JS

Implied shares at the moment are Con 46%, Lab 29%.

dellertronic

JBriskinindyref2 said:

speedy2 said:

RobD said:

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

Call the SNP bluff give them independence the same day England leaves the EU

Pulpstar

I think Tories might underperform exit slightly but it's broadly correct enough

Fleet_of_Worlds

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

OK, early predictions for resignations:

Swinson
Corbyn
Richard Leonard

Several MDs of pollsters.

RobinWiggs

I wonder how Theresa May is feeling? Brexit means Brexit isn’t so far from Get Brexit Done. This was supposed to be her size of win.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Dermot M kicking the shit out of Richard Burgon on Sky News.

Andrew

Jarrow Lab hold, but 11.45% swing. Biggest yet afaics?

StuartDickson

dellertronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

speedy2 said:

RobD said:

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

Call the SNP bluff give them independence the same day England leaves the EU

Yummy.