Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Labour isn’t working in Workington or pretty much any

12346

Comments

  • ydoethur said:

    Amazing admission by Jon Lansman that Momentum are not interested in what people think.

    They are a cancer that Labour MPs and members will have to expunge from their party by force.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP HOLD

    Turnout up

    Huge increase in Maj

    Ian Murray to stand alone? (Again).
    Could be an SNP clean sweep. That was 25/1 with Shadsy this morning, but I only put a quid on.
  • Lab hold Canterbury

    Not good, exit poll had that as an 88% Tory gain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Con gain Blackpool South

    This is a routing of epic proportions.
    Blackpool South was nailed on after the fracking suspension.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    IanB2 said:

    Canterbury Lab hold

    Any numbers?
  • Jezza looks quite chipper striding into his count!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003
  • IanB2 said:

    ITV shade the Tories down another one to 365

    SKY still insisting on 86 majority
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Corbyn demob happy at his count.....
  • Jezza looks quite chipper striding into his count!

    Been on the funny fags with Jo?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
    Well it is usually the only newspaper on view in the bbc and local council offices I used to go into
    That's probably because they take the perverse view that a newspaper ought to report news.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Actually not so. If they had attacked Corbyn before polls closed, then the story now would be one of betrayal from the right. It is critical that did not happen. Corbyn and the left had a free run. They had support. They failed. They were defeated. They have no-one to blame but themselves. There is no betrayal myth.
  • Liberal democrat cost Labour Truro.Falmouth

    SEAT NUMBER 14 - liberal democrats DISBAND!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Going dodgy for DUP no great loss
  • Jonathan said:

    Campbell is absolutely spot on why Labour lost.

    It’s almost like he’s won an election for Labour before.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003

    Where's Sean T @Byronic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    dr_spyn said:
    He would add much to the gaiety of the nation.
  • Turnout in Scotland so far 66.5% (+1.9)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    I find them nauseating, their sense of entitlement. People don't automatically have a right to the same standard of living as previous generations.
    What a strange thing to say. I can see that individuals might not be entitled to the same standard of living as one another, but I would have thought that over whole generations the merits would sort of even out and that social justice demanded parity between them. Perhaps you are not a parent?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    The first of Yougov's MRP seems to be accurate in terms of seats with the exception of Scotland.

    Conservatives look like they will have 360-363 seats, a majority of 68-74.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Corbyn inspecting the scales at the Islington count.
  • Fiona Hyslop (SNP MSP) saying that she has heard very positive things from Kincardine.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Rural South not quite so keen on Marxism:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205311574443003905
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Lab hold Canterbury

    Not good, exit poll had that as an 88% Tory gain.
    My gut was right. Demograhics moving away from the Tories.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Lab hold Canterbury

    Not good, exit poll had that as an 88% Tory gain.
    Reminds me very much of the EU ref itself, where we saw huge swings initially to leave and then such huge swings to remain in London etc that we couldn't be sure of the result. Of course with this being an election not a referendum there's no doubt on the result, but could see a few more shock Lab/LD holds/gains.
  • tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003

    Where's Sean T @Byronic.
    Unconscious I imagine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    Now...about that Centrist Phone bloke....and claims the Tory lead was only 2.8%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Liberal democrat cost Labour Truro.Falmouth

    SEAT NUMBER 14 - liberal democrats DISBAND!

    No, we are not Labour for a reason.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    The first of Yougov's MRP seems to be accurate in terms of seats with the exception of Scotland.

    Conservatives look like they will have 360-363 seats, a majority of 68-74.

    I said a few days ago that in 2017 the first one was a lot more accurate, just in case it happened again. It has done.
  • Nick Robinson wonderfully shoving the knife in to Corbo
  • kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    To an extent, though I'd say university educated and paid too little to get what previous generations took for granted in an alienating office job is no less working class than a plumber doing well for himself etc. It's easy to overemphasise cultural factors (an avocado costs pennies in the Tesco discount pile...) and forget the real practical facts of daily life. We shouldn't haveva view of class that's frozen since the interwar period...
    But always able to go back to mummy and and daddy. It is easy to be that kind of rebel.
    I feel a song coming on.

    That just isn't the case. Far more familiar are the 'first to go tobuni' type, stuck in boring white collar jobs that aren't middle class anymore in any meaningful sense. Or people who work in precarious jobs like cafes and restaurants, despite getting Firsts etc. If it's a realignment it's at least about changes in what constitutes the working class today as a shift from working to middle.
  • It's quite possible to simultaneously believe Corbyn was the worst possible leader of the Labour party and also better than Boris Johnson (this is my position). This is one of those superficially plausible comments that falls apart under even modest scrutiny, in other words standard fare from Dan Hodges.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    You don't seem to understand how FPTP works.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:
    He would add much to the gaiety of the nation.
    He’ll say, “Bugger that.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    One of the richest parts of the country is keen on Marxism.

    As I argued in 2017, the people driving Corbynism are the children of the well-off middle classes. University educated but saddled in debt, living in "nice" places like Putney but renting four to a house with no hope of ever getting on the property ladder.

    Corbynism was always a middle class youth rebellion about living standards not being equal to their parents.
    I find them nauseating, their sense of entitlement. People don't automatically have a right to the same standard of living as previous generations.
    What a strange thing to say. I can see that individuals might not be entitled to the same standard of living as one another, but I would have thought that over whole generations the merits would sort of even out and that social justice demanded parity between them. Perhaps you are not a parent?
    I'm 39 so not that old. (I don't have children). My standard of living is a lot lower than my parents but I don't whinge about it. You have to look on the bright side of life and appreciate the things you have. My dad had owned about 3 properties by the time he was 35. I don't expect to ever be able to afford my own property.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Stockton South looks like a con gain
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Liberal democrat cost Labour Truro.Falmouth

    SEAT NUMBER 14 - liberal democrats DISBAND!

    If only the LDs had not turned down Labour's proposals on an electoral pact, eh?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    edited December 2019
    WTF!?

    Edit: I thought they meant the national majority not Uxbridge
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Jess Philips looking like Miranda Richardson in The Crying Game on Sky right now.

    FEWMIN'.
  • Nick Robinson wonderfully shoving the knife in to Corbo

    Yes isn't it great when journalists have an opportunity to challenge politicians.
  • tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003

    Where's Sean T @Byronic.
    ;liberal democrats to blame again for that tory hold

    liberal democrats are tories. they refuse to stand down candidates when the only party that can beat tories is is labour.

    jo swinson will get a knighthood from boris johnson.
  • ydoethur said:

    Jon Lansman is a deeply unimpressive figure. How come he’s become so influential?

    Money

    https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/letting-the-hard-left-off-the-leash/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
    The press has made sexism, racism and xenophobia acceptable.

    Fox News makes millions of dollars diving people but their is resistance. This country has no resistance. Our entire economic system is rigged for the haves.

    Laura Kuennsburgs behaviour has been utterly disgraceful. The country is in a terrible state and its all David Camerons fault. The Tory Party destroyed communities in the 1980s for self-gain and have destroyed communities again in 2010s.

    We live in a popularism era where facts DON'T matter. Boris Johnson has lied repeatedly with zero scrutiny.

    The liberal democrats refusal to stand candidates down is costing seat by seat and ensuring we have Thaterites in westminster. We have absolute scumbags who care for themselves representing areas with 30% poverty. its utterly disgraceful

    This country desperately needs an independent press.

    We cannot continue having a press that is totally batting for one side that will do whatever it takes to get one side elected.

    Oh, you exaggerate. The Guardian is influential, certainly, but not that powerful.
    The press has made sexism, racism and xenophobia acceptable.

    Fox News makes millions of dollars diving people but their is resistance. This country has no resistance. Our entire economic system is rigged for the haves.

    Laura Kuennsburgs behaviour has been utterly disgraceful. The country is in a terrible state and its all David Camerons fault. The Tory Party destroyed communities in the 1980s for self-gain and have destroyed communities again in 2010s.

    We live in a popularism era where facts DON'T matter. Boris Johnson has lied repeatedly with zero scrutiny.

    The liberal democrats refusal to stand candidates down is costing seat by seat and ensuring we have Thaterites in westminster. We have absolute scumbags who care for themselves representing areas with 30% poverty. its utterly disgraceful
    You don't get to the heart of the matter. It is the refusal of the conservatives to stand all their candidates down which has caused the real damage.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Dadge said:

    humbugger said:

    Brom said:

    Jess Phillips would be a terrible choice as leader, thinks she’s the centre of the story

    Agreed. I would not wish to be derogatory about a lady but I'm afraid pouty shouty Jess is no nearer to PM material than I am.
    Jess is great, and loved by many. But it's probably correct to say she's not party-leader material. A bit like Corbyn wasn't, although they don't have many other similarities.
    What I don't understand is why she's loved by many. What has she actually accomplished, beyond having a Brummie accent and resolving local MP issues over benefits, housing and planning disputes?
  • ydoethur said:

    Jon Lansman is a deeply unimpressive figure. How come he’s become so influential?

    Money

    https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/letting-the-hard-left-off-the-leash/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    I was staggered for a moment to see that John Bercow was making favourable remarks about the Tories.

    Then I realised it was Alan Duncan.

    In fairness, that makes little difference.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Dadge said:

    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    All the new Con MPs in North East Wales won't want boundary changes!

    But Boris MUST push them through.

    Will the old New boundaries map really be that better for the Conservatives?

    But surely they could draw better borders in Scotland that will give them more than just 3 out of 59 seats with 25% of the vote ?
    You don't seem to understand how FPTP works.
    I do very well.
    You can do a lot with gerrymandering.
  • Reports of big trouble for Ed M.
  • IDS holds on
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Reports of big trouble for Ed M.

    :o
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    IDS survives
  • Jezza looks quite chipper striding into his count!

    Or defiant?

  • Well done HYUFD once again. IDS back
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    What a waste of time/resources Labour put into Chingford.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes the IDS!

    HYUFD rules!!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Reports of big trouble for Ed M.

    oh - where did I put that popcorn?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Floater said:

    IDS survives

    This and Boris' survival makes you wonder why they waste so much effort on these high profile fights, and seemingly forget about all the other seats where they get an absolute pasting.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Reports of big trouble for Ed M.

    FFS.
  • Stockton South goes Blue
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Con hold Walsall North with a near 13% swing in their favour.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Faiza Shaheen's face!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited December 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003

    Where's Sean T @Byronic.
    ;liberal democrats to blame again for that tory hold

    liberal democrats are tories. they refuse to stand down candidates when the only party that can beat tories is is labour.

    jo swinson will get a knighthood from boris johnson.
    Remind me how many Labour candidates stood down when only a LD or Green could defeat the Tory?
  • Now...about that Centrist Phone bloke....and claims the Tory lead was only 2.8%.

    Who is that guy?

    Is it another Dr.Eoin account?

    RICHARD BURGON ON BBC - NOW!
  • RobD said:

    Floater said:

    IDS survives

    This and Boris' survival makes you wonder why they waste so much effort on these high profile fights, and seemingly forget about all the other seats where they get an absolute pasting.
    Very hard to understand. We were told they had an MRP.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Artist said:

    What a waste of time/resources Labour put into Chingford.

    The bad guys lost. Don't put shit and dead rats through letterboxes of your opponents....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    Just contemplate this.

    Just 7 fewer Con seats in 2017 and Corbyn may well have been PM.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2019
    deleted
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    HYUFD vs. hordes of momentum corbynistas... who will win? :o
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Adjusted forecast now Tory 364, down from 368 at 10pm
  • Burgon vs Brillo on the BBC
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Reports of big trouble for Ed M.

    Was wondering. 5th leaviest seat in the country, although he does have a stupendous majority.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I think the exit poll had Gower as Tory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Glory be,

    When you think it cannot get worse than Lansman - up pops Richard Burgon with his usual vacuous nonsense.
  • Damn Labour held Gower
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Seeing Stephen Kinnock re-elected, if this is 1983, perhaps Labour need to find their Kinnock?
  • Someone has taught Burgon the word analyse. Bless.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    5,200 Tory majority in Stockton South
  • Burgon vs Brillo on the BBC

    That's not a fair fight....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Someone needs to invent a remote control that switches channels when Richard Burgon comes on the telly.

    His only value is as a Lost Consonant as Liz Taylor would attest.
  • Artist said:

    What a waste of time/resources Labour put into Chingford.

    Was reading an article earlier, buried deep within was a little 'we may have annoyed the voters by overdoing it in this seat' nugget from a Labour activist.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories hold Truro by 4,500. Not much swing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001003

    Where's Sean T @Byronic.
    ;liberal democrats to blame again for that tory hold

    liberal democrats are tories. they refuse to stand down candidates when the only party that can beat tories is is labour.

    jo swinson will get a knighthood from boris johnson.
    Lib Dem votes are not the property of Labour. We have minds of our own and there are reasons we do not vote Labour. You have only your own party and your leader to blame for this pathetic display.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ITV shades LDs up to 14
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    tlg86 said:

    Reports of big trouble for Ed M.

    FFS.
    >< !
  • Stockton South goes Blue

    On the spot analysis. Labour dropped 4k votes, Tories up by 2k votes. The mega turnout in the polling stations I went to this evening pointed the way
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Artist said:

    What a waste of time/resources Labour put into Chingford.

    The entire ground game is a waste of time. GEs are won and lost at a national level.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    kinnock holds aberavon 11000 majority - 17k last time
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Con is leading Labour. That’s unusually early in the night.

    And Burgon is blaming the press for daring to report on Corbyn’s past...
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Forgive my bluntness but Richard Burgon is still an absolute bivalve.
  • I'm sorry whoever is President of the liberal democrats should hang their head in shame that they've allowed NIGEL FARAGE to stand down candidates to improve tory chances and liberal democrats have HELPED boris johnson win seats he shouldn't be winning.

    THe liberal democrats CHOSE to have an election yet they did everything in their power to get conservatives elected. They were asked REPEATEDLY STAND DOWN, STAND DOWN, STAND DOWN...they refused. what happens...the tories win seats they shouldnt be winning.

    the liberal democrats need to join the tory party and disband. Their existence gave us david cameron, gave us a distrust in politicians and gave us Brexit. Jo Swinson has screwed over millions of people for her own vanity.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Burgon is now blaming the press. He takes no responsibility. None. Whatsoever.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    speedy2 said:

    The first of Yougov's MRP seems to be accurate in terms of seats with the exception of Scotland.

    Conservatives look like they will have 360-363 seats, a majority of 68-74.

    I said a few days ago that in 2017 the first one was a lot more accurate, just in case it happened again. It has done.
    Yeap.
    And once again the polls in the second to last week were more accurate.

    Also the second to last Mori was most accurate once more, including their Scottish regional poll.

    And Yougov's Welsh Barometer.
This discussion has been closed.