politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Labour isn’t working in Workington or pretty much any

System · December 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Labour isn’t working in Workington or pretty much anywhere

Corbyn's Labour isn't working in Workington. https://t.co/Oc3kc7DYfD

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AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

A new thread? Huge, if true.

RobD · December 2019

I'm enjoying this.

numbertwelve · December 2019

Third like Tory Swinson

ydoethur · December 2019

Brave attempt at a pun.

Jonathan · December 2019

Darlington goes Tory. Thanks Jeremy.

ydoethur · December 2019

numbertwelve said:
Third like Tory Swinson

Still some optimists left!

Brom · December 2019

Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/J_W____/status/1205297197828493312?s=20

Floater · December 2019

Darlington - BOOM

Sean_F · December 2019

A pity about Ruth Smeeth.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Darlo goes blue.

Floater · December 2019

RobD said:
I'm enjoying this.

Fuck yeah!

IanB2 · December 2019

Too many new threads!

MikeL · December 2019

Workington: Con 49%

Just stop and digest that number.

RobD · December 2019

SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1205298484347375617?s=20

Andrew · December 2019

Ken Livingstone can't resist blaming the Jews.

tlg86 · December 2019

Brom said:
Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

Not so sure. I think he's a lucky politician. May, I think, would have won a majority had an election been triggered around March/April.

Floater · December 2019

Must pace beer intake - but shit - this is amazing

Brom · December 2019

IanB2 said:
Too many new threads!

Vanilla will break if we don’t keep moving forward!

Floater · December 2019

Andrew said:
Ken Livingstone can't resist blaming the Jews.

Oh FFS really?

ydoethur · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Darlo goes blue.

Not even close.

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

Curtice’s rep on earth Huw Edwards passes on a warning that the Prof feels the exit poll may be overstating the swing to the SNP

speedy2 · December 2019

RobD said:
SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?

I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

HYUFD · December 2019

Curtice saying the exit poll overestimated the SNP rise by 6% based on Rutherglen

ydoethur · December 2019

Floater said:
Must pace beer intake - but shit - this is amazing

It’s as well it wasn’t a pint for every Labour defeat.

IshmaelZ · December 2019

ydoethur said:
Brave attempt at a pun.

Voters Stoke fires under Corbyn.

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205298798156812288?s=20

MarqueeMark · December 2019

ydoethur said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Darlo goes blue.
Not even close.

3,300 majority

kyf_100 · December 2019

Jonathan said:
Darlington goes Tory. Thanks Jeremy.

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

Sorry, not sorry.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205299140290322432

Floater · December 2019

Sky describe events as a "bloodbath" - are you listening Jezbollah?

Drutt · December 2019

I was just about to put LABOUR ISN'T WORKINGTON on the old thread but I've realised that my BBC iplayer feed is three minutes behind.

speedy2 · December 2019

After 20 results the swing is 7%.
Majority of 104.

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.

numbertwelve · December 2019

Heidi chewing some sour grapes on BBC

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

Yokes · December 2019

Absolutely stinking result for the DUP in Lady Hermon's old seat of North Down. Whilst an Alliance win isnt a shock, the majority is a blow for the DUP who have been cultivating that constituency for some time. .

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Canterbury going to a recount. Utter disaster, even in University seats.

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.

Andy_JS · December 2019

Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

Selebian · December 2019

When I saw the exit poll I thought this was going to be dull. Silly me, the changes so far are nuts!

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

I have to keep the threads coming quickly to manage the site traffic, because both Vanilla and Wordpress buckled earlier, so I'm trying to avoid long threads.

KentRising · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Canterbury going to a recount. Utter disaster, even in University seats.

??????

Pulpstar · December 2019

Lab hold Knowsley

Jonathan · December 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

speedy2 · December 2019

After 21 results the swing is back up to 7.5%

It's been stuck at 7.5% almost since the start so far.

CorrectHorseBattery · December 2019

The problem seems to have been ultimately Corbyn but also Brexit. No surprises there.

But the Lib Dems have done terribly, so I’m not entirely convinced of the merits of a centrist Labour winning a majority. They’d do a lot better though I’m sure - enough to force a Hung Parliament.

But I wonder if the Tories tacking to the left allows Labour to maintain at least some of its left wing stuff. Dump 90% of it but keep the anti austerity message.

But ultimately they need to avoid Brexit altogether. Accept the result and move on. But I think Labour need to do a lot of thinking.

I don’t think there are any easy answers beyond dumping Corbyn straight away

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Fleet_of_Worlds said:
I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.

My brother has cancelled his (genuine) plans to emigrate, and close the UK operation of his business.

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299802885492736?s=20

Floater · December 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20

There is a word for him.....

SandyRentool · December 2019

Fleet_of_Worlds said:
I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.

Special request from Sunil.

JBriskinindyref2 · December 2019

speedy2 said:

RobD said:
SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?
I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.

Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

ydoethur · December 2019

Jonathan said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20
He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

You know who else had a problem winning democratic votes...

HaroldO · December 2019

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I hope she does, she deserves to stand tall whilst Corbyn is routed.

StuartDickson · December 2019

ydoethur said:
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

rcs1000 · December 2019

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.

I've always liked her, and wouldn't be sad to see her as an MP

tlg86 · December 2019

Any SNP on here concerned that whilst they will increase their seats, that first results suggests that enthusiasm isn't quite what it was 4.5 years ago?

Foxy · December 2019

Yokes said:
Absolutely stinking result for the DUP in Lady Hermon's old seat of North Down. Whilst an Alliance win isnt a shock, the majority is a blow for the DUP who have been cultivating that constituency for some time. .

Surely DUP and SF have both been discredited by their antics of the last few years, even in the eyes of the most Sectarian. NI needs a government!

isam · December 2019

Lab down 20.7% in Jarrow

Casino_Royale · December 2019

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.
I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

It's right.

Floater · December 2019

Burgon looks shell shocked

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

Labour's next leader on Sky, almost on the verge of tears.

Floater · December 2019

HaroldO said:

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.
I hope she does, she deserves to stand tall whilst Corbyn is routed.

Amen

TheValiant · December 2019

Brom said:
Gotta hand it to Boris, he’s better at elections than May and Cameron

And Major and Hague and Howard. Maybe not IDS, we'll never know.

StuartDickson · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.
Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

She is much better than Swinson.

tlg86 · December 2019

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.
I've always liked her, and wouldn't be sad to see her as an MP

And it will seriously annoy Momentum!

ydoethur · December 2019

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.
I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.

Well, the suggestion is it isn’t quite as emphatic as the exit poll. But it would be surprising on these figures if the SNP isn’t closer to 50 than 40.

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

SandyRentool said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:
I’m not wholly clear why the BBC feels we need the views of Heidi Allen at this point.
Special request from Sunil.

In which case more power to her elbow. Amongst other things.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Floater said:
Burgon looks shell shocked

Thanks, switched channel to see this.

Andy_JS · December 2019

Labour down 20% in Jarrow. They hold the seat.

MarqueeMark · December 2019

Pulpstar said:
Lab hold Knowsley

Phew! says Labour.....

Casino_Royale · December 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299802885492736?s=20

I saw that.

An extremely sore loser.

Jonathan · December 2019

CorrectHorseBattery said:
The problem seems to have been ultimately Corbyn but also Brexit. No surprises there.

But the Lib Dems have done terribly, so I’m not entirely convinced of the merits of a centrist Labour winning a majority. They’d do a lot better though I’m sure - enough to force a Hung Parliament.

But I wonder if the Tories tacking to the left allows Labour to maintain at least some of its left wing stuff. Dump 90% of it but keep the anti austerity message.

But ultimately they need to avoid Brexit altogether. Accept the result and move on. But I think Labour need to do a lot of thinking.

I don’t think there are any easy answers beyond dumping Corbyn straight away

Corbyn has to go. Brexit was a factor of course, but amplified thousand fold mainly because Corbyn tried to triangulate a binary choice and ended up stuck in no-mans-land with a complex position he did not have the talent to sell.

Andy_JS · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Floater said:
Burgon looks shell shocked
Thanks, switched channel to see this.

What channel was he on? (Don't say ITV because you can't rewind).

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:
I’ve just deleted the very complicated spreadsheet I’d done to try to convince myself I wasn’t going to have to take my kids out of private school if Corbyn won. I know the epitome of a first world problem but my god it feels good.
My brother has cancelled his (genuine) plans to emigrate, and close the UK operation of his business.

Bit tearful here. The relief.

funkhauser · December 2019

What time is Dominic Grieve's meaningful vote in Beaconsfield?

StuartDickson · December 2019

Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, says that Tory voters in Rutherglen voted Labour, artificially boosting the Labour vote in that seat.

nunu2 · December 2019

Pulpstar said:
Lab hold Knowsley

😂

Andrew · December 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour's next leader on Sky, almost on the verge of tears.

Chris Williamson?

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

OK, early predictions for resignations:

Swinson
Corbyn
Richard Leonard

Time_to_Leave · December 2019

Jonathan said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20
He didn't mention Hitler. Does that count as progress?

Give it time.

IshmaelZ · December 2019

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/1205299061525557257?s=20
There is a word for him.....

which applies equally to Corbyn, and Corbyn's cronies and supporters and apologists in and outside parliament.

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1205300380705406977?s=20

SouthamObserver · December 2019

Congratulations to the Tories. It hurts me very hard to say, but Labour had to be destroyed. Please, now, hold Johnson in check. If you don’t, it could lead to something very nasty five years from now. Please, please govern for the country, not just for the blue rosette.

Floater · December 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to keep the threads coming quickly to manage the site traffic, because both Vanilla and Wordpress buckled earlier, so I'm trying to avoid long threads.

Good plan

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Andy_JS said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Floater said:
Burgon looks shell shocked
Thanks, switched channel to see this.
What channel was he on? (Don't say ITV because you can't rewind).

Sky News

kyf_100 · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Andy_JS said:
Rumours that Luciana Berger has a good chance of winning in Finchley.
Good. The Lib Dems will need her.

I have twenty quid on the Tories winning there but it's one bet I wouldn't mind losing. Next Lib Dem leader?

Brom · December 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1205300380705406977?s=20

Good, bugger off Lisa Forbes and her desperate plays for the Muslim vote. A short lived spell in parliament

HYUFD · December 2019

Cities of London and Westminster rumoured to be a 3 way tie between Tories, Chuka and Labour

StuartDickson · December 2019

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.
I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.
Well, the suggestion is it isn’t quite as emphatic as the exit poll. But it would be surprising on these figures if the SNP isn’t closer to 50 than 40.

I was wrong. I said 41.

Andy_JS · December 2019

Implied shares at the moment are Con 46%, Lab 29%.

dellertronic · December 2019

JBriskinindyref2 said:

speedy2 said:

RobD said:
SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?
I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.
Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

Call the SNP bluff give them independence the same day England leaves the EU

Pulpstar · December 2019

I think Tories might underperform exit slightly but it's broadly correct enough

Fleet_of_Worlds · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
OK, early predictions for resignations:

Swinson
Corbyn
Richard Leonard

Several MDs of pollsters.

RobinWiggs · December 2019

I wonder how Theresa May is feeling? Brexit means Brexit isn’t so far from Get Brexit Done. This was supposed to be her size of win.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Dermot M kicking the shit out of Richard Burgon on Sky News.

Andrew · December 2019

Jarrow Lab hold, but 11.45% swing. Biggest yet afaics?

StuartDickson · December 2019

dellertronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

speedy2 said:

RobD said:
SNP only up by half of the exit poll prediction?
I put the swing numbers in and I get:
SNP 53
CON 3
LAB 1
LD 1

The SNP getting almost all seats with 44% of the vote.
Yeah - indyref2 was always going to happen - it s even in my username - everything to play for - the future of this great island will be at stake - Brexit just a sideshow

Call the SNP bluff give them independence the same day England leaves the EU

Yummy.

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