politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s ma
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Redcar Swing Required 11%0
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But so far only in seats which are too safe to matter - 80 odd majority on a 14% vote lead always felt slim - wouldn't be surprising if they get the wins but with a lower overall vote lead.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Curtice advises that some results are showing slightly smaller Lab to Con swings than the exit poll suggested so the Tory majority may be smaller than 86.
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I remember Dimbleby having more stamina.KentRising said:
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Redcar - you are kidding me. This is like Tory Christmas.2
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Dominic Cu.mings is an absolute mastermind0
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Watch ITV, it really good with Squeaky and Eddie Spheroids.beentheredonethat said:Well this election has certainly changed me.
I never watch the BBC but the thought of bercow has forced me over0 -
Bootle must be at risk.numbertwelve said:Redcar - you are kidding me. This is like Tory Christmas.
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I am staying up all night - work will understandHaroldO said:
I have to be up at half six...but I need to see this.ozymandias said:
Well Boris’s dad is on it. Audience screaming. 🤣🤣🤣HaroldO said:
Is it that bad?ozymandias said:Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.
Gentler politics personified.0 -
Yes, he needs to deliver.WhisperingOracle said:Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
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Redcar is supposed to be Labour hold according to the exit poll . . .0
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Jimmy Carr - "Why doesn't someone triple lock the NHS?"0
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He doesn't hold a candle to NFL RedZone's Hanson...he does 7hrs without a break, every Sunday.KentRising said:0 -
After 12 results the swing is still 7.5%
That would be a Majority of 116.0 -
Although we haven't had anything from the MIdlands and Wales apart from Nuneaton.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Curtice advises that some results are showing slightly smaller Lab to Con swings than the exit poll suggested so the Tory majority may be smaller than 86.
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Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
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What happened?Philip_Thompson said:Redcar is supposed to be Labour hold according to the exit poll . . .
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Great shame for Anna Turley, who I rate.wooliedyed said:Labour conceding Redcar!
One day the Cooperative Party will figure they ought to decouple themselves from Labour.0 -
Tory gain.nunu2 said:
What happened?Philip_Thompson said:Redcar is supposed to be Labour hold according to the exit poll . . .
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Signs that Con outperforming Exit Poll?0
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I'm not sure that's the reason at all. We were earlier on in the Brexit process and his ambiguity on it simply worked better, I think. Meanwhile there was the surprise of Labour having returned to the left, and suspended disbelief that this would bring improvement in the northern towns.Winstanley said:
2017 and 2019 were Corbyn's elections. The big difference between them being, as I said, a commitment to a second referendum. The prospect of having to go through another referendum is a put off for all but those few who have never got over 2016.Jonathan said:
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.Winstanley said:
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.Jonathan said:
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.Winstanley said:
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost afterJonathan said:
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.Winstanley said:
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.Jonathan said:The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
SNIP FOR SPACEt.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.1 -
61% chancePhilip_Thompson said:Redcar is supposed to be Labour hold according to the exit poll . . .
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We are going to Tory landslide territory. Oh my god.nunu2 said:
What happened?Philip_Thompson said:Redcar is supposed to be Labour hold according to the exit poll . . .
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A few moments ago Curtice was warning the opposite via his representative on earth, Huw Edwards.MikeL said:Signs that Con outperforming Exit Poll?
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I notice the scale on your swing plot had to be extended, @FrancisUrquhart 1
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Workington might be Con gain?
Result still to be declared.0 -
Labour haven't delivered for these people for decades, why should they only give Boris five years?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, he needs to deliver.WhisperingOracle said:Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
But I take your point.0 -
Redcar going might mean Hartlepool blue ?0
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On current results the Tories are heading for a 17% lead, although that'll probably come down when London and other cities come in.0
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Tories eating pizza in Workington. No news on the topping.2
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As per usual.....MikeL said:Signs that Con outperforming Exit Poll?
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Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.4
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according to the tv, in ynys mon, the labour agent is saying its a lab/con fight.
the brexit agent is saying its a lab/plaid fight..so who knows..0 -
SNP gain Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Gaffney looking to be on his way out in Coatbridge as well. Very bleak for SLab.0
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Expect Con outperform national swing in North East.
But big swings in Swindon North and Nuneaton should be close to national average I would have thought.0 -
East Kilbride incoming by the look of it1
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He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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RobinWiggs said:
T
The membership and party bodies are overwhelmingly left wing/Corbynist/Momentum. They aren’t ceding control just because the MPs ain’t happy.CorrectHorseBattery said:Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
Corbyn and McDonnell have worked hard to ensure the Left are ascendant.
The party may need to split.0 -
They are smiling - if they win it will be "seismic" according to skySandyRentool said:Tories eating pizza in Workington. No news on the topping.
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just backed SNP to win Gordon at Evens. bet365speedy2 said:0 -
CON eating pizza in Workington. With pineapples?0
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Well yeah. Deal reached with the EU makes a second referendum sound even more absurd. 2017's version of neutrality (no ref, Labour deal) versus 2019's (Labour deal and a referendum) is the tipping point for Labour leavers imo.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm not sure that's the reason at all. We were earlier on in the Brexit process and his ambiguity on it simply worked better, I think. Meanwhile there was the surprise of Labour having returned to the left, and suspended disbelief in the northern towns.Winstanley said:
2017 and 2019 were Corbyn's elections. The big difference between them being, as I said, a commitment to a second referendum. The prospect of having to go through another referendum is a put off for all but those few who have never got over 2016.Jonathan said:
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.Winstanley said:
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.Jonathan said:
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.Winstanley said:
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo)Jonathan said:
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.Winstanley said:
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.Jonathan said:The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
SNIP FOR SPACEt.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.0 -
I remember Polly when Boris won London, she couldn't contain her anger. On TV, she went nutso.
I can only imagine the state she is in this evening.1 -
She’s fine, it’s the unflattering TV presentation and colouring.Fleet_of_Worlds said:
He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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Milliband vs MillibandSunil_Prasannan said:
The Miliband AwakensWhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
The Last Miliband
The Rise of Miliband1 -
You think the Tories will be definitely north of 45% then?Andy_JS said:On current results the Tories are heading for a 17% lead, although that'll probably come down when London and other cities come in.
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Miliband and Starmer can just about hold it together.RobinWiggs said:RobinWiggs said:T
The membership and party bodies are overwhelmingly left wing/Corbynist/Momentum. They aren’t ceding control just because the MPs ain’t happy.CorrectHorseBattery said:Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
Corbyn and McDonnell have worked hard to ensure the Left are ascendant.
The party may need to split.0 -
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Redcar? More like Bluecar! Amiright???4
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I still miss Dimblebore...Fleet_of_Worlds said:
He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
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How Casino?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, he needs to deliver.WhisperingOracle said:Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
Seriously, these are places which globalisation is leaving behind....they are on a one way ticket to Pallookaville0 -
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Hearing they've got it.Floater said:
They are smiling - if they win it will be "seismic" according to skySandyRentool said:Tories eating pizza in Workington. No news on the topping.
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Indeed, blessings be upon him.numbertwelve said:
I still miss Dimblebore...Fleet_of_Worlds said:
He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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A New Millibandsarissa said:
Milliband vs MillibandSunil_Prasannan said:
The Miliband AwakensWhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
The Last Miliband
The Rise of Miliband1 -
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?2
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Turnout in Witney is 74%. Never known anything like that.0
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Workington con gain ‘(I think).0
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Not ‘think’. It’s a con gain.0
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We all spend too much time on the t'interweb, where Jezza is dead popular.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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Channel 4 is fucking hilarious.
Jimmy Carr is such a closet tory but can't reveal himself.0 -
73.3% in both 2010 and 2015, weirdly enough, and 73.6% in 2017.El_Capitano said:Turnout in Witney is 74%. Never known anything like that.
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We thought it would happen again. I can't quite believe what is happening,MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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This is what I said on 6 Nov...
"So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position."
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It's a relief to see sanity restored - after 2017 we thought the world had turned upside down.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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Lavery clung on. Booooo. Cunningham clinging on in Stockton North0
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Wansbeck Labour hold - ITN0
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IDS holding on in Chingford, apparently.1
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Amazingly I managed to get a whole four quid on size of Con majority 100-124 seats at 20/1 about 10 minutes ago on BF exchange. Now down to 4/1.
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Can someone please check in on Gina Miller.... 😎0
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Damn!MarqueeMark said:Wansbeck Labour hold - ITN
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Well done HYUFD for canvassing there and haven't you been vindicated and howHYUFD said:
Many congratulations and let us hope we can all unite in a one nation conservative party1 -
I can only imagine what it is like over in Fake News land like Novara Media.Slackbladder said:Channel 4 is fucking hilarious.
Jimmy Carr is such a closet tory but can't reveal himself.0 -
After 14 results, swing is still 7.5%0
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I have defected to ITV. It’s a shame as I’d rather have the news and analysis rather than the gossip and chat, but the BBC is too slowFleet_of_Worlds said:
He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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I don't know about you but I have a problem with my hindsight - it only seems to be working after an event these daysMarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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LAB hold Wansbeck0
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Broxbourne:
Con 30,631
Lab 10,824
LD 3,970
Grn 1,281
Con +3.4%
Lab -5.7%
LD +5.4%
Grn +1.0%0 -
He was speaking a lot of sense, I was shocked. Tez being a Corbynite looking like Santa shit in his stocking.Slackbladder said:Channel 4 is fucking hilarious.
Jimmy Carr is such a closet tory but can't reveal himself.0 -
Looks like I'll be watching back all the itv coverage at the weekend... Bbc tonightFrancisUrquhart said:
Watch ITV, it really good with Squeaky and Eddie Spheroids.beentheredonethat said:Well this election has certainly changed me.
I never watch the BBC but the thought of bercow has forced me over0 -
Lavery holds on by 800 votes.0
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Hope so, though unfortunately missed canvassing there in the end James looks to have wonBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well done HYUFD for canvassing there and haven't you been vindicated and howHYUFD said:
Many congratulations and let us hope we can all unite in a one nation conservative party0 -
Northern Ireland Update.
South Antrim : Sources say that Paul Girvan (D.U.P) will hold his seat with a reduced margin ahead of Danny Kinahan (U.U.P) who will finish second.0 -
ITV has 21 declarations and the BBC just 140
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The polling station where Mrs Fleet was presiding officer in Wantage constituency was up about 60% on 2017 she thought.El_Capitano said:Turnout in Witney is 74%. Never known anything like that.
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Osborne is very good on here tbhIanB2 said:
I have defected to ITV. It’s a shame as I’d rather have the news and analysis rather than the gossip and chat, but the BBC is too slowFleet_of_Worlds said:
He’s now talking to a journalist who has a hairdo which has travelled through time and space from 1980s America.IanB2 said:Huw Edwards is good at filling spaces when nothing is happening. He is not so good at being on top of a story when it is happening.
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bet365 are 2/9 Plaid hold Ceredigion. But Evens Plaid over 3.5 seats.
Those prices dont match up IMO.0 -
If Labour stay above 200 it's because of the Brexit Party splitting the leave vote. Same here in Stockton North0
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From 'Safe" to "Marginal":MarqueeMark said:Wansbeck Labour hold - ITN
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205296015106023426?s=20
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If Labour get 169 or less seats I hit the jackpot. Don't think it's going to happen though.0
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Yep.Pulpstar said:Dominic Cu.mings is an absolute mastermind
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So talk of Labour leaving town this afternoon was because they realised it was a no-go, not because they thought it was job done.brokenwheel said:2 -
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.Jonathan said:
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.0 -
Rumour of Tory win in Peterborough.0
