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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s majority of 179 in 1997
Swindon North, a Labour seat 1997-2010
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First?0
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A pointless second, as I suspect the LibDems are going to pile up in the south-east.0
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Titters.0
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Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.0
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Condemned to the Corbyn of history.0
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Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.0
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Please can we have more results?0
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BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
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Might see the return of Ed Miliband.0
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I think my PC might blow up when we start getting 20 at a time.numbertwelve said:Please can we have more results?
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Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!0
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Vote share changes so far:
Con +3.1%
LD +3.0%
Lab -11.7%
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All the way, dude. All the way.RobD said:Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!
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YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!WhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
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It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.FrancisUrquhart said:
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
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Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.3
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I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.0
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Tipped at 200/1 by me.WhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
#LegendaryModestyKlaxon1 -
As was posted often...IanB2 said:
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.FrancisUrquhart said:
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
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I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.IanB2 said:1 -
I love how breathless the BBC are about some of the Tory gains, lol0
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I hope he holds, have some money on him lolWhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
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And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).IanB2 said:
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.FrancisUrquhart said:
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
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Leaver labour voted for Boris in the referendum and appear to have done so again.... Even with waspi bribes and those big social media moments... Which seem not to have been.0
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Sunderland West: Swing 11%0
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bet365 over 3.5 seats 6/5AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Farage has taken the Labour leave vote lol0
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Adam Price had a great campaign.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Jeremy Vine's infographic suggested that Walsall South was the safest Labour seat that would fall tonight, based on the exit poll.RobD said:Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!
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His brother would have been goodnumbertwelve said:I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.
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True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.speedy2 said:
Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.tlg86 said:Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.
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.numbertwelve said:I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.
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Labour need to rebrand as London party.0
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Tommy Shepherd saying 55 SNP seats doesn't match their own numbers.0
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After 8 results average swing 8%.
Swingometer has the majority at 126.0 -
So when the FTPA is repealed, can we assume the Tories are now winter election fans and December 2024 is the favourite?0
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If he gets re-elected.WhisperingOracle said:Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
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Nevertheless he is right that the TIG breakaway was their last chanceWhisperingOracle said:
I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.IanB2 said:0 -
Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.humbugger said:Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.
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Yes I thought he was good in the debates as well.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Adam Price had a great campaign.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Betfair: 370s band favourite
Would mean Con outperform Exit Poll0 -
FPTFrancisUrquhart said:
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).IanB2 said:
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.FrancisUrquhart said:
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
(FWIW us users of your sheet can actually sort and filter columns in our view, so setting one column as a flag would work well without requiring, I hope, major changes to your script...)
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!0 -
I recommend occasionally switching to C4 to see the looks of absolute distress. Stanley Johnson looking like JRM on the seats of the House of Commons.0
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To be a fly on the wall of Steve this evening....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.humbugger said:Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.
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Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.2
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Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.IanB2 said:
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Farage, you genius. The guarantor of BrexitScrapheap_as_was said:Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.
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Nope.tlg86 said:
True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.speedy2 said:
Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.tlg86 said:Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.
The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.0 -
just backed Con gain Bolsover at 4/9 bet3650
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Oh god, errhh, hmmm, I don't know...MyBurningEars said:
FPTFrancisUrquhart said:
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).IanB2 said:
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.FrancisUrquhart said:
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...rcs1000 said:Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.
Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!0 -
Nick Robinson still the best political reporter.
Even though he is now only a reporter on GE night.1 -
Too close to call in Finchley according to Channel 40
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CHRIST.
I remember when I was one of 754 Tories who voted in the Manchester Central by election.
https://twitter.com/SteveRobson04/status/12052882744550768640 -
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.Jonathan said:
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.Winstanley said:
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.Jonathan said:
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.Winstanley said:
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.Jonathan said:The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.
Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.
It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.0 -
Why do people sneer at political celebrities and not political hedge fund bosses and newspaper owners? The latter surely hold more power over people.0
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They won't vote tory, but they hate labour.. or at least CorbynScrapheap_as_was said:Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.
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Yes, agents Farage and Corbyn are some of the Tory party’s top agents.RobD said:
Farage, you genius. The guarantor of BrexitScrapheap_as_was said:Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.
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After 9 results the swing is 9%.
Majority of 144.0 -
But all this had run out of steam by 2010. You need more than a mixture of NHS and education spending, gay rights, and populism on law and order and welfare, and David Miliband wouldn't have beaten Cameron in 2015 for these reasons either.Jonathan said:
Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.IanB2 said:1 -
After 10 results the swing is back down to 7.5%
Majority of 116.0 -
Okay, I'll take your word for it. Merseyside and its fringes on the other hand, very much staying loyal to Labour!speedy2 said:
Nope.tlg86 said:
True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.speedy2 said:
Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.tlg86 said:Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.
The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.0 -
Lansmann on ITV is just losing Labour even more votes !!!! Some rich southern bloke basically telling those that didn't vote Labour they were wrong.0
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I honestly agree with Labour more often than not about what the big issues are. But you can't seriously intend to run the country on throwing money at things and a commitment to undo essentially everything the Tories, Blair, or the coalition government did. For all the talk about fairness, equality, rights and so on, it was by far the most backward looking prospectus from any party in living memory, bar perhaps some of the nonsense UKIP comes out with.Jonathan said:
Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.IanB2 said:
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Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?1
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Waspi bribe, free broadband, no tuition fees, slashed rail fares, Neilinterview gate, boyonfloorgate, fridgegate, and all the other stuff and yet Labour appear to have been stuffed. CCHQ did not seem to change the election strategy to respond to any of these issues. The private polling must have been strong and stable throughout.2
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FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut0 -
I think Boris might be keen now.Philip_Thompson said:Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?
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Ian Lavery in recount !!!0
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Fiona Hill v Jon Lansman hahaha0
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*cackles uncontrollably*dr_spyn said:4 -
hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigionAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Adam Price had a great campaign.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The third book in the Tim Shipman trilogy is going to be a belter.
Has Cummings blogged yet?0 -
Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut0 -
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Wansbeck???!!!!!!2
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Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.
Gentler politics personified.1 -
35/46 on the MRP !!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.0 -
It looks as though you were right!llef said:
hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigionAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Adam Price had a great campaign.AlastairMeeks said:
The LibDems have slipped to 4th in Ceredigion, with the Tories second.0 -
Alliance 1000 ahead on North Down1
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It is the one with the 28 seat majority.Philip_Thompson said:
35/46 on the MRP !!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.0 -
Where is Wansbecktlg86 said:
Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut0 -
38.3% boomer...dr_spyn said:0 -
71.34% turnout in Ceredigion
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Are they in mourning?ozymandias said:Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.
Gentler politics personified.0 -
One of the few people in the HoC I dislike more than Chote.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK
#LaveryOut1 -
The left-leaning contributor on BBC is now blaming everything on Corbyn. The Labour Civil War gets underway...0
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The PM’s dad is loving it.Philip_Thompson said:
Are they in mourning?ozymandias said:Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.
Gentler politics personified.
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This discussion has been closed.