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SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made this possible

Exit poll forecasts a Tory majority of 86. Disappointing night for the Lib Dems but the SNP close to 2015 levels. pic.twitter.com/2ZaXOj7WJy

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    I love democracy. :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    I think we have safely say Labour aren't on 36%.

    Interesting that Thrasher said Tories were winning from pretty much straight out the gate and only very late was there a bit of swing back to Labour.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Never in doubt.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    Many of us only meant to blow the doors off......

    So, Sunderland?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes RCS1000 now new poster of the decade. RCS = elections expert!

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Well done Robert, you are a star
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    edited December 2019
    Boris with a comfortable majority of over 80 will be the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher, from impotent a few weeks ago to dominating the British political scene and he will of course deliver Brexit and pass his Deal and block indyref2 as promised, certainly until Holyrood 2021.

    Labour now after the gains of 2017 falling to an even weaker position than Foot, a hapless opposition now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    I will be amazed if Hartlepool goes. But then, I’m amazed at these figures anyway.

    Remember, there may well still be Tory losses. So we could be looking at an even more brutal night for incumbent Labour MPs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Wonder whether Labour is starting to regret not passing Theresa's deal now... ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Ave_it said:

    Yes RCS1000 now new poster of the decade. RCS = elections expert!

    Don't underestimate the late corbynista surge... :o
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Exit poll says LD lose all Scottish seats including Orkney.

    In 2015 it was also predicted to fall as the only seat not falling to the SNP.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    My thoughts are with the Pidcock fans at this difficult time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    We're not in 2017 any more, Toto......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    Well I forecast a Tory majority of 40 to 70, not bad.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,109
    Why the feck are they not giving vote shares
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,518
    Pound?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,848
    squareroot2 said:

    Why the feck are they not giving vote shares

    They haven't given them since about 2001.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    squareroot2 said:

    Why the feck are they not giving vote shares

    They now how to tease us.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    I forecast a Tory maj of 20-40. Half right...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Wham bam thank you mam.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    BBC Scotland election coverage says it's all 4 LD seats. Including Orkney (they will not lose Orkney)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,310
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?

    Brighton?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Fucking Hell.

    £ up to $1.35
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sandpit said:

    CNN highlighting Newcastle-Under-Lyme as an example of the sort of red seat that will go blue.

    Good luck Aaron!

    Nailed on. Good for Aaron.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,261
    Time for a nap before the results start pouring in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    Byronic said:

    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.

    And HYUFD will send the troops in.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,848
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    edited December 2019
    I generally think the Kiwi Shitster's deserve a lot of credit. This was genius....


  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    406 seats voted to Leave.
    242 voted to Remain.

    The exit poll is close to that result.
    I think this was the Brexit election that should have happened in 2017, instead it happened now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    Alistair said:

    Exit poll says LD lose all Scottish seats including Orkney.

    In 2015 it was also predicted to fall as the only seat not falling to the SNP.

    Orkney would be staggering. The two Scottish Parliament constituency seats are rock solid LD, and it's been continuously Liberal for ever.

    But you never know.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Blyth Valley CON gain maybe?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Corbyn cannot blame the Labour right for this. We’ve been as good as gold. Trappist monks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    https://twitter.com/JamesManning/status/1205248445986082816
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    HYUFD said:

    Boris with a comfortable majority of over 80 will be the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher, from impotent a few weeks ago to dominating the British political scene and he will of course deliver Brexit and pass his Deal and block indyref2 as promised, certainly until Holyrood 2021.

    Labour now after the gains of 2017 falling to an even weaker position than Foot, a hapless opposition now

    This is one point that really should cause every Labour member angst. After nine years, including two years of utter chaos, they are less popular than at any time since 1945 AGAINST A PARTY LED BY A MAN UNFIT FOR PUBLIC OFFICE.

    That’s absolutely shocking.

    Macdonnell agrees it is a catastrophe. No shit.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    John McDonnell looks shattered
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Byronic said:

    Fucking Hell.

    £ up to $1.35

    Yep. I have already made more from currencies than I will on political betting.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Naked Ruth Davidson then I guess
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    McDonnell not really denying it. At least he's fronting it out with Neil
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    It makes you wonder what the bloody hell the two leaders were doing with their visits in the last week of the campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    John McDonnell on BBC now, looks shellshocked and ashen. Almost could feel sorry for him, almost but no
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    McDonnell on BBC looking GUTTED.

    Good, the useless bloody Trot.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited December 2019
    Possible result of extreme over-confidence from both Corbyn and Swinson in not wanting to work with each other, which always looked odd, if this is right.

    Meanwhile Cummings has been wargaming the assimilation of the Brexit Party since the summer.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    My thoughts are with the Pidcock fans at this difficult time.

    I'm not, that was one of my bets :)
  • StevenWhaleyStevenWhaley Posts: 54
    Terrible poll for my party... we're in deep trouble. No two ways about it. :(
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.

    Best thing for them though. Socialism won't help the young.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    If the exit poll is right then this represents a Conservative landslide at the 1983 level in England and Wales, and an SNP landslide at the 2015 level in Scotland. With Labour's result the worst since before the War. Absolutely extraordinary.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    CON 340+ still 1.11 on BFexchange
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?

    Brighton?
    Nope, Green is tagged as one in the headline.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    BBC Scotland election coverage says it's all 4 LD seats. Including Orkney (they will not lose Orkney)
    What?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?

    Can you PM me next week's winning lottery numbers please?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SandyRentool said:

    Byronic said:

    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.

    And HYUFD will send the troops in.
    Gunships up the Forth at dawn.

    Twat.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,109
    The studenrs obvioisly did not believe Labour...
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Exit poll says LD lose all Scottish seats including Orkney.

    In 2015 it was also predicted to fall as the only seat not falling to the SNP.

    Orkney would be staggering. The two Scottish Parliament constituency seats are rock solid LD, and it's been continuously Liberal for ever.

    But you never know.
    O & S loss is extinction level event for the SLDs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    SandyRentool said:

    Byronic said:

    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.

    And HYUFD will send the troops in.
    Not quite but Spain has of course set a precedent for ignoring mouthy nats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.

    I think the young couple I saw in the supermarket earlier today excitedly getting supplies to watch Jezza winning will be very confused.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Ave_it said:

    Blyth Valley CON gain maybe?

    Rumours of a possible need to re count so not first to declare after all!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    John McDonnell looks shattered

    Good.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,752
    Horrific exit poll for Labour and catastrophic for the Union.

    SNP on 55 !
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I forecast a Tory majority of 40 to 70, not bad.

    I said 40 at work today and I was the most opimistic ......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
    Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.

    If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    John McDonnell looks shattered

    His career is ended. His politics is rejected. His time is done and he leaves nothing.Being very bright, he knows this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    Ave_it said:

    Yes RCS1000 now new poster of the decade. RCS = elections expert!

    Naughty!
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Even bigger than my forecast for the past 2 weeks:

    Con 43% 355 seats
    Lab 33% 215 seats
    Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
    SNP 46 seats
    Brexit Party 0 seats.
    Green 1 seat.
    Others 18 seats.

    Con Majority 60

    Be interesting to see the range of the exit poll.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.

    You have been 100% in your approach here credit to you for presenting your case with, on the whole, dignity.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Do we have confidence intervals, a range?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Byronic said:

    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
    Same here. They didn't have a good campaign but it is true the Unionist vote may have unwinded.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Corbynites line is already that this is because of Brexit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    Ave_it said:

    Blyth Valley CON gain maybe?

    ITV showed it blue. Along with Bish, Darlington, Sedgefield, Hartlepool and Durham NW. Shockingly bad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    BETTING POST

    Betfair Sportsbook has SNP seats UNDER 55.5 @ 1.83

    This is an incredible bet.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?

    Brighton?
    Ashfield
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    For four years the Remain Parliament blocked Brexit.

    I do not wish to be magnanimous in victory.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    Very.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I generally think the Kiwi Shitster's deserve a lot of credit. This was genius....


    I agree.
    Labour will never support Remain ever again, not after this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.

    As an EvulToryBabyEater - it is a terrible shame that Blarism ended the way it did. Between that and Orange Book Liberalism, there was every hope of resurrecting the grand Liberal project of 1911.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    Is it just me, the BBC results pages aren't available.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Let SCO have their independence now so it would be maj 155!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Do we have confidence intervals, a range?

    Given they've called it as a Tory majority, the lower bound must be above 326.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    Byronic said:

    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.

    They can say what they like. It will be different when you are imprisoning every Scottish MP bar one taxi during the foreign food shortages.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    For Tories who remember 1997 and 2001 this is your revenge, the best result in my living memory for my party, a great night ahead for PB Tories
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,310
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145

    Lefty Twitter going completely nuts :smiley:
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1205250527749197824

    Fucking hell, outpolled May by 3 points
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Something. Has. Changed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is it just me, the BBC results pages aren't available.

    They are on to you :o
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,766
    So if this is right and Scotland is pretty much SNPland, there have to be some huge swings in some seats in England to the Tories.

    What Labour casualties could there be?

    Pidcock?
    RAYNER?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,476
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145

    So it was Brexit, but not the anti-Semitism, far-left loopy economics, and terrorist-sympathetic toerag leading the party.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn cannot blame the Labour right for this. We’ve been as good as gold. Trappist monks.

    This is the best possible result for the country and YOUR party.

    If you dump Corbyn and get a decent leader you could win, easily, next time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,499
    RobD said:

    I love democracy. :)

    I love the Republic :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    I get paid in dollars.

    *sighs*

    Well, worth it if Labour returns to sanity. But I'll believe Corbyn's going when he's gone. And I'm not getting carried away until we get some results in, accurate as the exit poll usually is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,499
    2019 ELBOW compared to 2017 ELBOW

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1205146378135101440

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Macdonnell not denying that Corbyn has to resign, although he’s trying to evade it.
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