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SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big rumour to get everyone going before the exit poll at 10pm

? Tory insiders are telling me Boris Johnson could “genuinely be in trouble in #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip”.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    First
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,976
    Second like Boris?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    VAR
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,353
    Voted in Maidenhead about an hour ago. Would say turnout was average (steady). GWR have got the trains back up and running at least
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Skybet are offering

    Labour to win
    Lincoln
    Bolsover
    Warrington S
    Stockton S

    at 6/1 !!! Now they may not win any of them (slightly probable) , but if they win one of them they are quite likely to win all 4 - 6/1 great bet imho
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I live near there. No problems for Boris. Solid working class, middle class and aspirant classes voting for him.

    Also Hillingdon best council in London
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,311
    There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Still to vote, still to decide.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    Believe it when I see it but would wet myself laughing if it happens.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    T-90'

    Pizza in the oven, beer in the fridge and champagne on ice.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Sean_F said:

    There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.

    ~Its fake news
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Jonathan said:

    Still to vote, still to decide.

    Why don't you vote CON? Its really good!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    state_go_away said:

    Skybet are offering

    Labour to win
    Lincoln
    Bolsover
    Warrington S
    Stockton S

    at 6/1 !!! Now they may not win any of them (slightly probable) , but if they win one of them they are quite likely to win all 4 - 6/1 great bet imho

    Lincoln looks a reasonable bet. Big student population, and the Tory candidate had some issues.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    Still to vote, still to decide.

    LOL - Let me guess - you will plump for Labour - just like last time.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Except there isn't an LD vote to collapse...
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    edited December 2019
    Please, PLEASE let it be true.

    And then the whole north go blue.

    Both the racist free spending posh boy nutters to go in the same night would be brilliant.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited December 2019
    Last election at round 930pm I had one of the most remarkable experiences of my life. I saw the exit poll. Thirty minutes when I had an almost unique view on the world and what was to unfold.

    Right now, someone somewhere knows what is coming. I wonder if we look as odd to them as PB looked to me 2 years ago. PB had no idea.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    Sean_F said:

    There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.

    Yeah, but the guy isn't popular, SeanF. He was a dishonest Mayor with a very indifferent track record. Londoners tend to remember that sort of thing.

    I really wouldn't be that surprised if he lost. If the overall result is fairly close - say Tories in with a majority of 20 to 40, I'm not sure he would scrape through.

    Seriously.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,801
    edited December 2019
    FPT:
    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In the United States you can't even buy a local train ticket without showing ID.

    Absolute bollocks.
    I had to show ID when buying a train ticket from Boston's North Station to Salem a couple of years ago. Journey is about 25 mins.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Argh font gone weird. Damn you vanilla
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Sean_F said:

    There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.

    Yeah, but the guy isn't popular, SeanF. He was a dishonest Mayor with a very indifferent track record. Londoners tend to remember that sort of thing.
    Isn't that priced into the share he got in 2017 though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    Jonathan said:

    Last election at round 930pm I had one of the most remarkable experiences of my life. I saw the exit poll. Thirty minutes when I had an almost unique view on the world and what was to unfold.

    Right now, someone somewhere knows what is coming. I wonder if we look as odd to them as PB looked to me 2 years ago. PB had no idea.

    John Curtice will have known the probable result for six hours. But he’s probably too busy to check PB.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,353
    brokenwheel said:

    Except there isn't an LD vote to collapse...

    The other thing that helps Boris is the sheer number of candidates. If Buckethead and Binface pick up 300 votes between them that is 300 that haven't gone to Labour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,639
    Jonathan said:

    Last election at round 930pm I had one of the most remarkable experiences of my life. I saw the exit poll. Thirty minutes when I had an almost unique view on the world and what was to unfold.

    Right now, someone somewhere knows what is coming. I wonder if we look as odd to them as PB looked to me 2 years ago. PB had no idea.

    Can you explain how you came to seeing it?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Last 5 mins:

    1.40, 1.39, 1.38, 1.37
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Except there isn't an LD vote to collapse...

    The other thing that helps Boris is the sheer number of candidates. If Buckethead and Binface pick up 300 votes between them that is 300 that haven't gone to Labour
    That is correct.
    A lot of candidates will split the protest vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    3.9% to collapse lol
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    I'm already halfway through a bottle of good Bordeaux here in France worried sick about the election but not sure on current forecast whether I'll make it to the exit poll at 10 (11 here)

    I can live with a small con majority. Yeah - just one is enough....

    Keep calm.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    There is an eerie feeling descending. I hate this period.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    just to add to the nerves

    3 people whom I had previously reported were going to vote blue went Lib Dem in the polling booth.

    Not one of them remotely interested in the Labour offering - but think the tories have this seat in the bag and they like the Lib Dem candidate

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair market solidly pissed today. It's all over the place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

    If the SNP go backwards it will be a tossup between pointing at them or pointing at the flying pigs.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,251
    edited December 2019
    If boris was in trouble they'd abandon everything nearby and flood the seat with activists
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1205224667973378048
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    I would also just say that I am beginning to feel that this election might be in two parts - the remain vote giving the Tories a shellacking in London and the Red Wall crumbling up North.

    A realignment of British politics.

    Where that leaves the parties vis a vis an OM, I have no idea.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

    Very believable. The seat ranges for all parties bar the Lib Dems in Scotland are huge.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,441
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If this happens then there'll be a flood warning issued across the country as the nation pisses itself laughing.

    I think I just have!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Alistair said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

    Very believable. The seat ranges for all parties bar the Lib Dems in Scotland are huge.
    Isn't the same for many of the seats?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    Give it a rest

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/12/whats-going-on-here/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Going to pick up Chinese now
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    IshmaelZ said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
    Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    When was the last time the Tories didn’t outperform the exit poll? 1997 I’m sure of, but was 2001 another?

    2010 and 2017 were very, very close, that said.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Ave_it said:

    Jonathan said:

    Still to vote, still to decide.

    Why don't you vote CON? Its really good!
    I’d never be able to look my children in the eye if I did!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    It has been (virtually) bang on since 1997, as far as seats are concerned.

    Not for 1992 or 1987 :lol:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    IshmaelZ said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
    Because the picture our Labour friend is showing is from the day before - strange that
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    Could be like 92 where they go through a possible range of results.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,075
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

    I would focus on the 2. The one you tried to get rid of in Edinburgh and the lucky sod in Kirkcaldy where the SNP candidate proved even more repugnant than usual.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Ah, I did get the photo wrong. My mistake, hold my hands up then.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,757
    Just voted in Wythenshawe and Sale East. Massive queues when I tried earlier - but it was pwak time and there was a woman trying to arrange a proxy at the front to the puzzlement of the presiding officers. But quiet 90 minutes later.
    Con +1 vote in WSE. Not that I imagine it will make much difference.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    DanSmith said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    Could be like 92 where they go through a possible range of results.
    Yes I think they will project a range this time - agreed
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    PredictIt (US contract trade site)

    How many seats will Labour win in the 2019 UK election?

    179 or fewer - 4c
    180-189 - 2c
    190-199 - 3c
    200-209 - 5c
    210-219 - 12c
    220-229 - 22c
    230-239 - 25c
    240-249 - 19c
    250 or more - 15c

    Correct contracts resolves to $1, others $0

    I'm thinking of taking a few of the '250 or more' for potential trading up over the course of the night (assuming the exit polls aren't crushingly bad to kick things off).

    Any recommendations for value here?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    Pulpstar said:

    Going to pick up Chinese now

    Mr Pulpstar, your sexual proclivities are no concern of ours.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    hearing from relatives that Tory activists are leaving Bassetlaw and crossing border with South Yorkshire into Don Valley
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
    Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?
    Who posted that tweet? there is your answer

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jackson Carlaw is either a liar or he's broken the law.

    https://twitter.com/lumi_1984/status/1205174449395453953?s=19
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,634
    They must know by now. :o
  • MilesPartridgeMilesPartridge Posts: 81
    Anyone else feel sick?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,518
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Ah, I did get the photo wrong. My mistake, hold my hands up then.

    Apologise to the Daily Mail.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    nichomar said:

    Ave_it said:

    Jonathan said:

    Still to vote, still to decide.

    Why don't you vote CON? Its really good!
    I’d never be able to look my children in the eye if I did!
    Some good deals to Spain on easyjet.com at the moment!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Last election at round 930pm I had one of the most remarkable experiences of my life. I saw the exit poll. Thirty minutes when I had an almost unique view on the world and what was to unfold.

    Right now, someone somewhere knows what is coming. I wonder if we look as odd to them as PB looked to me 2 years ago. PB had no idea.

    Can you explain how you came to seeing it?
    In a previous role, I used to lead the technical part of the BBCs online election results service. In 2017 I returned to help out. Absolutely fascinating evening.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nichomar said:


    I’d never be able to look my children in the eye if I did!

    You'll have a harder time explaining why you were happy to load hundreds of billions of pounds of YOUR spending on to their (and their childrens) future taxes.

  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    If there is any truth that Uxbridge is even close just imagine what would have happened if Labour had put up a decent candidate without a dodgy past. If Johnson wins this by a small margin those responsible for choosing Ali Milani should be defenestrated.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Alcohol consumption


    I've already done 4 pints of 5% lager- a beery lunch, a beer at the pub catching up on work and a beer at the polling booth....wine beckons
  • TommyShelbyTommyShelby Posts: 24

    Sources (twitter journalists) Tories leading in Dagenham, Putney, Chingford, Wimbledon.
    Diverting resources to Battersea from Putney.
    Bishop Auckland is a ‘cast iron gain’. Rother Valley, Derby North, Bolsover and Bassetlaw will go blue.
    West Midlands - tough fight in Birmingham northfield and two Coventry seats.

    Labour - Paul sweeney looks doomed in Glasgow northeast.
    Watford, Battersea, Uxbridge, Chingford, Enfield Finchley and Kensington are where they still are canvassing.
    Morecambe, High Peak, Pudsey, Grimsby vote holding up well.
    Stroud looks bad for labour due to split vote.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Ah, I did get the photo wrong. My mistake, hold my hands up then.

    Apologise to the Daily Mail.
    No way, the Daily Mail is trash and is persistently wrong.

    But I will apologise to those here who I said were wrong with a full apology. I will always admit fault.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    I hate the exit poll - its so sudden and usually defining- prefer the slow drip drip of seats declaring !
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    MilesPartridge said:

    Anyone else feel sick?

    I've been on edge since waking up this morning. Can't be stated enough how big an election this is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    MilesPartridge said:

    Anyone else feel sick?

    Not usually, I just get a brush and sweep it up rather than feel it.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Jonathan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Last election at round 930pm I had one of the most remarkable experiences of my life. I saw the exit poll. Thirty minutes when I had an almost unique view on the world and what was to unfold.

    Right now, someone somewhere knows what is coming. I wonder if we look as odd to them as PB looked to me 2 years ago. PB had no idea.

    Can you explain how you came to seeing it?
    In a previous role, I used to lead the technical part of the BBCs online election results service. In 2017 I returned to help out. Absolutely fascinating evening.
    Was it clear it was going wrong earlier on?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In the United States you can't even buy a local train ticket without showing ID.

    Absolute bollocks.
    I had to show ID when buying a train ticket from Boston's North Station to Salem a couple of years ago. Journey is about 25 mins.
    Were you paying at a ticket window with a non-US card? Sounds like they were just double-checking your ID against your card (I've had to show ID to use a non-Swedish card in a Stockholm department store, so it's not just the US).

    I can assure you that you do not need to show ID to buy tickets on NYC area rail including Metro-North, the Long Island Railroad and New Jersey Transit. Quite a while since I last used the T (Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority) commuter rail but no need to show ID then either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,441
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If this happens then there'll be a flood warning issued across the country as the nation pisses itself laughing.

    Statement of the election, and by a country mile.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Finally voted in Bury South, in my marginal straight Lab/Tory ward. "Steady" was the word used to describe activity today. It seemed slightly quieter than when I last voted there around the same time in 2015 - although that was a pleasantly warm May evening not biting December drizzle.

    With sweaty palms and a heavy remainer-ish heart, I voted Tory. As always. I felt choked as I left at the thought I've just dived in with those of insane Brexit mind like Boris, Mogg and Foster et al. But Corbyn and McDonnell turn my stomach and will do until hopefully around 3-4am tonight when I can turn in safe and sleep.

    Brexit will go on and on and won't get done. And I suspect the next Labour Govt in 5 years will probably quickly hold a new referendum and turn the ongoing transition period into EU re-entry. But in the meantime, at least a fairly moderate Tory PM can steady the ship otherwise.

    Assuming he doesn't lose his seat tonight and we end up with Rees Mogg or some other horror.

    I've lived here for 9 years and been waiting for it to go back blue but it never has. So tonight it might if all the polls and predictions are right. I can't really see it, but I might for the first time since I started voting in 1997 actually have voted for a winning GE candidate tonight.

    Interestingly, I realised driving home that I didn't know where my polling station was. I had a postal vote in 2017, and the library has been closed since 2015 (Labour council cuts). I googled "find my polling station" and clicked on Labour's own site. I was urged by Jez himself to go to the place I voted at in the locals in May.

    Wrong. Back to the library (now a community hub). What's one more untruth from Corbyn to finish the campaign.... :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,311
    The
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    When was the last time the Tories didn’t outperform the exit poll? 1997 I’m sure of, but was 2001 another?

    2010 and 2017 were very, very close, that said.
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    When was the last time the Tories didn’t outperform the exit poll? 1997 I’m sure of, but was 2001 another?

    2010 and 2017 were very, very close, that said.
    The Tories underperformed in 2005. The exit poll said 210 seats, the outcome was 198, although there were some very tight results that could have gone either way.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lol, apparently he was proxy voting.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
    Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?
    No idea, people delete tweets for all sorts of reasons.

    Actually that Mail link has another photo, same time place but a few more bods in it, showing odd shoes. So they must have rather pointlessly doctored 2 photos not just 1.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Ah, I did get the photo wrong. My mistake, hold my hands up then.

    So she did have odd shoes?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,801
    alb1on said:

    If there is any truth that Uxbridge is even close just imagine what would have happened if Labour had put up a decent candidate without a dodgy past. If Johnson wins this by a small margin those responsible for choosing Ali Milani should be defenestrated.

    The Tory vote will probably hold firm in Uxbridge but Labour will get close because of switchers from the LDs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,639
    Betfair is back in, but 1.4 is again the resistance level (as it has been for days / weeks).
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    saddened said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Ah, I did get the photo wrong. My mistake, hold my hands up then.

    So she did have odd shoes?
    Looks like it yes.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

    That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

    I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

    No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html
    Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?
    We know Ms Abbott doesn't need a shoe horn
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273

    LAB/LD net up 2 in London?

    CON up 30-40 North/Midlands?

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    TommyShelby said:


    Sources (twitter journalists) Tories leading in Dagenham, Putney, Chingford, Wimbledon.
    Diverting resources to Battersea from Putney.
    Bishop Auckland is a ‘cast iron gain’. Rother Valley, Derby North, Bolsover and Bassetlaw will go blue.
    West Midlands - tough fight in Birmingham northfield and two Coventry seats.

    Labour - Paul sweeney looks doomed in Glasgow northeast.
    Watford, Battersea, Uxbridge, Chingford, Enfield Finchley and Kensington are where they still are canvassing.
    Morecambe, High Peak, Pudsey, Grimsby vote holding up well.
    Stroud looks bad for labour due to split vote.

    Paul Sweeney was sounding a bit demented on LBC last night, so I would think he's almost certainly out.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I've already held my hands up, I'll say no more. Thanks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,183
    Just back from exercising my franchise -- 10 mins queue; cab driver reported 20 mins where he voted. Now to catch up with Masterchef.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    tyson said:

    Alcohol consumption


    I've already done 4 pints of 5% lager- a beery lunch, a beer at the pub catching up on work and a beer at the polling booth....wine beckons

    Keep the spirits on ice until Sunderland?
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273

    If swathes of the red wall turn blue it's unlikely to be a HP, imo.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    wooliedyed said:

    If boris was in trouble they'd abandon everything nearby and flood the seat with activists

    They might but they can't vote
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

    I would focus on the 2. The one you tried to get rid of in Edinburgh and the lucky sod in Kirkcaldy where the SNP candidate proved even more repugnant than usual.
    SCon commenting about candidate quality is an incredible stone throwing in a glass house moment.
  • MilesPartridgeMilesPartridge Posts: 81
    ydoethur said:

    MilesPartridge said:

    Anyone else feel sick?

    Not usually, I just get a brush and sweep it up rather than feel it.
    Well lardy dar, Mr Fancy ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,639
    Bit of light relief, one of the better of these...I am surprised given how viral this is, that Maomentum didn't do a Seven Nation Army version.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFVVKKbQk28
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    TommyShelby said:


    Sources (twitter journalists) Tories leading in Dagenham, Putney, Chingford, Wimbledon.
    Diverting resources to Battersea from Putney.
    Bishop Auckland is a ‘cast iron gain’. Rother Valley, Derby North, Bolsover and Bassetlaw will go blue.
    West Midlands - tough fight in Birmingham northfield and two Coventry seats.

    Labour - Paul sweeney looks doomed in Glasgow northeast.
    Watford, Battersea, Uxbridge, Chingford, Enfield Finchley and Kensington are where they still are canvassing.
    Morecambe, High Peak, Pudsey, Grimsby vote holding up well.
    Stroud looks bad for labour due to split vote.

    Paul Sweeney was sounding a bit demented on LBC last night, so I would think he's almost certainly out.
    That commentary doesn't really scream "landslide" to me
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,107
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273

    Ramp alert
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Con Maj 1.38 on BF. Normality restored.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,775
    Sean_F said:

    The

    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    When was the last time the Tories didn’t outperform the exit poll? 1997 I’m sure of, but was 2001 another?

    2010 and 2017 were very, very close, that said.
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I genuinely think the exit poll is going to have a wide margin of error and they're going to re-adjust it.

    When was the last time the Tories didn’t outperform the exit poll? 1997 I’m sure of, but was 2001 another?

    2010 and 2017 were very, very close, that said.
    The Tories underperformed in 2005. The exit poll said 210 seats, the outcome was 198, although there were some very tight results that could have gone either way.
    But that means the Tories did outperform the exit poll. After all from 2003 Blair was a Tory *innocent face*

    Seriously, thanks for the update. So generally it tends to underestimate the leading party.
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