The thing I dont get with these 'never seen so many young people voting' stories is, unless its the early morning queue how many people are actually ever at the polling stations? A couple dozen at most? You just ran into a group of mates on their way to the pub!
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
They ARE all going to vote for Boris - but under cover of darkness.....
Is it fair to assume that since we’ve heard nothing on the North from either side, it’s close?
Random anecdotes happen every election. Especially on twitter. And there’s all sorts of reasons to try and gee up activists.
Personally, I’d ignore all of them. The only people with a clue are working on the exit poll and they are too ethically sound to leak. Plus even they might be in the dark because of the change to time of year, and therefore voting patterns.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
Is that the signal for the elite MI5 eraser squads to take on the first of the boxes and remark the papers?
Oh dear, I fear you are not trying to be ironic! Watch out for the lizard people too!
#penisbest
Not sure I dare try researching that hashtag. Is it something to do with sexual deviant survivalists? I guess it has some cultish meaning for you and your comrades
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Was a pygmy. The 3-4 stone he has put on this year has moved him up several weight categories.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Is it fair to assume that since we’ve heard nothing on the North from either side, it’s close?
Random anecdotes happen every election. Especially on twitter. And there’s all sorts of reasons to try and gee up activists.
Personally, I’d ignore all of them. The only people with a clue are working on the exit poll and they are too ethically sound to leak. Plus even they might be in the dark because of the change to time of year, and therefore voting patterns.
It was same during the Brexit referendum and you would have thought that would a) mean a solid Remain win and b) definitely a massive Remain win in London.
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
Just nipped downstairs to the polling station, here in Port Talbot, and word is 'I'm voting for Boris. He makes me laugh, he's just like Benny Hill'.
For older viewers, but will that suit?
This story is as accurate as most of the statements made by Boris during the campaign!
Grieve to "surprise a lot of people but probably not quite there", according to my former People's Vote contact who's worked with some of the unusual assortment of enthusiasts helping him there.
I absolutely hate the final few hours of voting. Nothing to do but wait.
I'm going to sit on the sofa, feeling sorry for myself with man-flu and watching movies. Anybody seen Farmaggedon? JoJo Rabbit? Will they keep me distracted?
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
Democrats don’t want GOP voting SoCal to have self-rule
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
Just nipped downstairs to the polling station, here in Port Talbot, and word is 'I'm voting for Boris. He makes me laugh, he's just like Benny Hill'.
For older viewers, but will that suit?
This story is as accurate as most of the statements made by Boris during the campaign!
Not that Boris has got a little bald sidekick like Jackie Wri......oh yeah, I get it now.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Each to his own - I remember Westland
I didn't like the way he behaved then, but he is still a serious politician. Johnson is a joke
Is that the signal for the elite MI5 eraser squads to take on the first of the boxes and remark the papers?
Oh dear, I fear you are not trying to be ironic! Watch out for the lizard people too!
#penisbest
Not sure I dare try researching that hashtag. Is it something to do with sexual deviant survivalists? I guess it has some cultish meaning for you and your comrades
Erm. You really didn’t twig I was joking did you? Not the sharpest tool in the box, are you, given I then even used that hashtag.....
Made some off-the-cuff comment about postal ballots not looking good for Corbyn. Some people are terribly upset, demanding the Police be called in etc. etc.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Each to his own - I remember Westland
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
I absolutely hate the final few hours of voting. Nothing to do but wait.
I'm going to sit on the sofa, feeling sorry for myself with man-flu and watching movies. Anybody seen Farmaggedon? JoJo Rabbit? Will they keep me distracted?
Watch the recent BBC Series about the NI troubles. Superb.
Or Paddington.
Or the Goodies episode with David Bellamy. "The Animals". Just like Watership Down but they all get shot.
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
Just nipped downstairs to the polling station, here in Port Talbot, and word is 'I'm voting for Boris. He makes me laugh, he's just like Benny Hill'.
For older viewers, but will that suit?
This story is as accurate as most of the statements made by Boris during the campaign!
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
Can I ask you a question about the Tory 300-Ups on S.Index? (Slightly academic, as I don't plan to bet on it this time. I've got 40 constituency bets though which I'll list after the event if anyone's interested).
The selling(buying) price is 340(343) (although it went lower this morning). I assume they mean that at 343 one's liability is limited to £(Stake x 43) and a £1 stake wins >~£40 if there's a landslide.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Each to his own - I remember Westland
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
I actually think she sold out to the Italians but that may have been another sellout
Made some off-the-cuff comment about postal ballots not looking good for Corbyn. Some people are terribly upset, demanding the Police be called in etc. etc.
People were asking if the election could be made nul and void. People on the Left.
People looking for an excuse, any excuse, to avoid the voters' judgment.....
Made some off-the-cuff comment about postal ballots not looking good for Corbyn. Some people are terribly upset, demanding the Police be called in etc. etc.
The Labour MP in Bristol (something or other) got a police caution for a similar indiscretion some years ago.
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
Anybody brave or foolish enough to share their election betting exposure?
Mine is 17 constituency bets , £240 wagered to win £930, mainly due to a couple of unreasonably long shots, heart ruling head on a couple in Scotland. Also have £35 on a couple of anti-Con coalition bets as jam and cream on top (the only thing I agree with Boris on).
I've also cashed out of half a dozen constituencty bets along the way for no loss/small profit.
Made some off-the-cuff comment about postal ballots not looking good for Corbyn. Some people are terribly upset, demanding the Police be called in etc. etc.
People were asking if the election could be made nul and void. People on the Left.
People looking for an excuse, any excuse, to avoid the voters' judgment.....
People not full of confidence.
I am sure Jo will be crowd funding more legal action....
Just voted in Paisley and Renfrewshire North. Polling Station was dead. Sums up this election here - no canvassers and very few leaflets. No enthusiasm around here at all.
So quiet you can hear the sound of Mhairi Black's knuckles dragging along the ground in the adjacent seat?
No, because it is being automatically driven from scripts running locally. What you see in the google docs is simply a copy of the data being generated by my scripts.
If all the live scraping starts to malfunction, I might turn on editing.
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
I recall Heseltine trying to find the moral high-ground from which to kick off his leadership campaign....
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
Shame on you voting for an anti-Semite to be PM
OGH is free to do what he likes with his vote, of course.
But he has spent most of the last year telling us that he would not for "the anti-Semite" Corbyn (his words), and he has caused letters to be sent to hosts of Tory/Lab marginals asserting that only the LibDems can stop the Tories here.
Now of course, people can change their minds, but usually at a cost to their credibility.
Remarkably, OGH may be ending the election with less credibility than either Corby or Bozza !
Grieve to "surprise a lot of people but probably not quite there", according to my former People's Vote contact who's worked with some of the unusual assortment of enthusiasts helping him there.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Each to his own - I remember Westland
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
Just nipped downstairs to the polling station, here in Port Talbot, and word is 'I'm voting for Boris. He makes me laugh, he's just like Benny Hill'.
For older viewers, but will that suit?
This story is as accurate as most of the statements made by Boris during the campaign!
Or on here now?
Wash your mouth out! All anecdotes on PB come with cast iron guarantees!
Is that the signal for the elite MI5 eraser squads to take on the first of the boxes and remark the papers?
Oh dear, I fear you are not trying to be ironic! Watch out for the lizard people too!
#penisbest
Not sure I dare try researching that hashtag. Is it something to do with sexual deviant survivalists? I guess it has some cultish meaning for you and your comrades
Erm. You really didn’t twig I was joking did you? Not the sharpest tool in the box, are you, given I then even used that hashtag.....
I didn't believe you were joking based on your previous posts, and despite your weak protestations I still don't. Bit rich for someone who still believes in Brexit to accuse someone for not being sharp! lol ! What are you hoping Father Christmas will bring? Tooth fairy been to visit recently?
Quick tip: Don't accuse other people of being stupid from a position of supreme weakness.
Grieve to "surprise a lot of people but probably not quite there", according to my former People's Vote contact who's worked with some of the unusual assortment of enthusiasts helping him there.
Good news.
Could be premature, though. I'd personally love a suprise there, and it does look like he's got the Tories worried , with the bizarre hustings cancellation earlier in the week ; so it does look at like he's at least put in a good performance.
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
Heseltine has no principles beyond fanatical Europhilia.
If things run quite smoothly with my scripts, I will probably try and add extra data like turn-out info, vs Exit Poll Predictions etc. I will see what I can do.
First call of order is make sure my scraping of the BBC results pages works.
If things run quite smoothly with my scripts, I will probably try and add extra data like turn-out info, vs Exit Poll Predictions etc. I will see what I can do.
First call of order is make sure my scraping of the BBC results pages works.
Once again, thank you for this. Many of us will owe you a beer.
Agreed, but given the reference was to Swinson we are talking Con/LD seats where Corbyn does not matter.
I thought the whole point of voting tactically for LibDems was to deny the Tories a majority. In which case the only alternative is getting Corbyn as PM.
Logic failure, I think, Mr Rose. Another alternative is to deny an overall majority to both of them. If the Lib Dems do well today, and hold the balance of power, then neither the Tories nor Labour can run amok with their own pet - extremist - policies. This would be good for the country.
I'd imagine party HQs will have a generalized idea of how its going by now from teller data
In somee seats.As I said before, I was amazed to vote in Merrow, Guildford ( a classic Con/LD fight) and find only the LDs had a teller (completely different to past elections). I knew many Conservative activists had defected (to Milton and a few to the LDs) but this suggests they will have no idea in at least one key seat.
It is Brexity, Nantwich (the posh bit) has been expanding, Crewe has had a lot of issues coping with a large amount of immigration from Poland and the current Labour MP is a plonker. It ticks lots of the boxes that Tory campaign has banged on about.
Furthermore, they have voted Tory before, Timpson who lost his seat was actually very popular among normally Labour leaning people. Last time, it was a combination of really not liking May and thinking the Tories were going to win massively there, so no need to worry.
If the Tory candidate had been Timpson again, Tories would absolutely walk it.
Anybody brave or foolish enough to share their election betting exposure?
Mine is 17 constituency bets , £240 wagered to win £930, mainly due to a couple of unreasonably long shots, heart ruling head on a couple in Scotland. Also have £35 on a couple of anti-Con coalition bets as jam and cream on top (the only thing I agree with Boris on).
I've also cashed out of half a dozen constituencty bets along the way for no loss/small profit.
At one point I had lays on the Tories across different markets (BF + Spreads) with a liability of around £2500.
I closed them all out when Labour's mini polling bounce happened to give a guaranteed profit of around £300.
With the benefit of hindsight I should have let them run.
Working my way back in to the markets but there is a surprising lack of liquidity outside of the main betting options.
Here's a pleasant anecdote of no possible betting value.
At my polling station this morning, the tellers (two men) were standing outside in the rain. Just said Good morning to them on the way in, but later, waiting for people to come inside before I went out, I realised that the younger man was being 'trained' in the art of telling by the older man. A nice piece of cross-party co-operation at local level.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Heseltine is a colossus. Johnson is a pigmy.
Each to his own - I remember Westland
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
You think Heseltine is principled? 🤣
Not usually, but he certainly came out of that episode with more credibility than Thatcher or Brittan (and infinitely more than Boris has).
These are very specific numbers. Are they from the YouGov MRP or canvassing data ?!
Fair play for them giving it a go although the tweet would have been a little more plausible if they'd used 'a couple of hundred' rather than specific numbers.
These are very specific numbers. Are they from the YouGov MRP or canvassing data ?!
Not MRP. Its the dodgy doctor twitter account, he is infamously wrong time and time again and pulls figures out his ass. It feels more like GOTV type stuff.
I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.
Heseltine has no principles beyond fanatical Europhilia.
If the facts disagree with your opinion just spout hot air? Is that your principle?
NHS patient data for sale according to El Reg Talks to package millions of British medical records into a vast, commercially valuable database that may then be sold on are already underway between NHS England bosses and global giants https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/12/12/nhs_data_leak/
Anybody brave or foolish enough to share their election betting exposure?
Mine is 17 constituency bets , £240 wagered to win £930, mainly due to a couple of unreasonably long shots, heart ruling head on a couple in Scotland. Also have £35 on a couple of anti-Con coalition bets as jam and cream on top (the only thing I agree with Boris on).
I've also cashed out of half a dozen constituencty bets along the way for no loss/small profit.
At one point I had lays on the Tories across different markets (BF + Spreads) with a liability of around £2500.
I closed them all out when Labour's mini polling bounce happened to give a guaranteed profit of around £300.
With the benefit of hindsight I should have let them run.
Working my way back in to the markets but there is a surprising lack of liquidity outside of the main betting options.
Took 4/1 on 70 - 80% turnout. Feeling hopefull at the moment.
Comments
Personally, I’d ignore all of them. The only people with a clue are working on the exit poll and they are too ethically sound to leak. Plus even they might be in the dark because of the change to time of year, and therefore voting patterns.
Neither were true.
For older viewers, but will that suit?
This story is as accurate as most of the statements made by Boris during the campaign!
And no.
Maybe.
I'm going to sit on the sofa, feeling sorry for myself with man-flu and watching movies. Anybody seen Farmaggedon? JoJo Rabbit? Will they keep me distracted?
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
Or Paddington.
Or the Goodies episode with David Bellamy. "The Animals". Just like Watership Down but they all get shot.
The selling(buying) price is 340(343) (although it went lower this morning). I assume they mean that at 343 one's liability is limited to £(Stake x 43) and a £1 stake wins >~£40 if there's a landslide.
People looking for an excuse, any excuse, to avoid the voters' judgment.....
People not full of confidence.
Mine is 17 constituency bets , £240 wagered to win £930, mainly due to a couple of unreasonably long shots, heart ruling head on a couple in Scotland.
Also have £35 on a couple of anti-Con coalition bets as jam and cream on top (the only thing I agree with Boris on).
I've also cashed out of half a dozen constituencty bets along the way for no loss/small profit.
If all the live scraping starts to malfunction, I might turn on editing.
But he has spent most of the last year telling us that he would not for "the anti-Semite" Corbyn (his words), and he has caused letters to be sent to hosts of Tory/Lab marginals asserting that only the LibDems can stop the Tories here.
Now of course, people can change their minds, but usually at a cost to their credibility.
Remarkably, OGH may be ending the election with less credibility than either Corby or Bozza !
Some of it re-spaffed on @Peter_the_Punter's high Cons seat estimate.
Quick tip: Don't accuse other people of being stupid from a position of supreme weakness.
First call of order is make sure my scraping of the BBC results pages works.
Beyond the M25 there is silence.
It is Brexity, Nantwich (the posh bit) has been expanding, Crewe has had a lot of issues coping with a large amount of immigration from Poland and the current Labour MP is a plonker. It ticks lots of the boxes that Tory campaign has banged on about.
Furthermore, they have voted Tory before, Timpson who lost his seat was actually very popular among normally Labour leaning people. Last time, it was a combination of really not liking May and thinking the Tories were going to win massively there, so no need to worry.
If the Tory candidate had been Timpson again, Tories would absolutely walk it.
I closed them all out when Labour's mini polling bounce happened to give a guaranteed profit of around £300.
With the benefit of hindsight I should have let them run.
Working my way back in to the markets but there is a surprising lack of liquidity outside of the main betting options.
At my polling station this morning, the tellers (two men) were standing outside in the rain. Just said Good morning to them on the way in, but later, waiting for people to come inside before I went out, I realised that the younger man was being 'trained' in the art of telling by the older man. A nice piece of cross-party co-operation at local level.
Good afternoon, everyone.
It's also practised as the numbers work on plausibility (2 fairly close, 2 further away but plausible)
according to El Reg
Talks to package millions of British medical records into a vast, commercially valuable database that may then be sold on are already underway between NHS England bosses and global giants
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/12/12/nhs_data_leak/