There is a weather window coming into.London at about 5.30 tonight where its clearing up. People even after being knocked up are saying on the doorstep they will wait for the rain to.ease..if it doesnt then the results could be pretty skewed as voters warm and snug in their homes decide to stay there
More generally, I think the LibDem "dozens of leaflets" strategy has reached the wrong side of the curve. It has got to the point of antagonising voters. "They just look bloody desperate" as somebody commented to me yesterday.
Next time, fewer leaflets with more policies, eh?
You could say the same thing about the Tories in their target seats. We've had at least 8 all with different variations of themes...
Mr. Camel, better, though I would've gone with whippersnappers.
Raining quite a bit here now.
Whippersnappers, Morris? I've always suspected you lived in a posher part of God's own. Now I know. By the way, 'bairns' is well used in barnsley & ponty. Think it's a Scottish thing. I'll stick with nippers for wakey.
There is a weather window coming into.London at about 5.30 tonight where its clearing up. People even after being knocked up are saying on the doorstep they will wait for the rain to.ease..if it doesnt then the results could be pretty skewed as voters warm and snug in their homes decide to stay there
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.
It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).
If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.
Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?
"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
They all promised more affordable housing...
They also all promise immigration higher than house building... which even a toddler can work out means they have all promised to make housing more scarce.
More generally, I think the LibDem "dozens of leaflets" strategy has reached the wrong side of the curve. It has got to the point of antagonising voters. "They just look bloody desperate" as somebody commented to me yesterday.
Next time, fewer leaflets with more policies, eh?
You could say the same thing about the Tories in their target seats. We've had at least 8 all with different variations of themes...
Get Brexit done?
Don't let Corbyn's Labour wreck the economy - again?
These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.
It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).
If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.
Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?
"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
They all promised more affordable housing...
The headline is hilarious:
"Research shows voters want more homes in their local area, not less"
You try and build 50 or 60 and see what happens...
You may be surprised. My area is earmarked for many 100s of new homes. When the local community site posted about it negatively, almost every reply was in favour.
Heard a first-hand report that turnout is sky-high in South Cambridgeshire. That bodes very well for the Lib Dems if true.
Or it means those who voted for Brexit are determined not to let the LibDems steal their win.
I know which I think is the correct interpretation....
Interesting question is where the Tory voters would come from there given the former council was widely derided before being defenestrated and that the Tory ground force is non-existent. Not saying you are wrong, but it would defy the balance of organisational power in that seat.
These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.
It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).
If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.
Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?
"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
They all promised more affordable housing...
The headline is hilarious:
"Research shows voters want more homes in their local area, not less"
You try and build 50 or 60 and see what happens...
You may be surprised. My area is earmarked for many 100s of new homes. When the local community site posted about it negatively, almost every reply was in favour.
Depends where they're done, if amenities are put in; that sort of thing.
I've put all the numbers from the opinion poll regional subsamples and I assumed a 7% Conservative lead on the back of the Mori best PM numbers, this is what I get:
Heard a first-hand report that turnout is sky-high in South Cambridgeshire. That bodes very well for the Lib Dems if true.
Or it means those who voted for Brexit are determined not to let the LibDems steal their win.
I know which I think is the correct interpretation....
60/40 Remain/Leave, Lib Dems recently took the district council, and the report was from a remainy area of the constituency. So... so do I. But we'll see early tomorrow morning!
There is a weather window coming into.London at about 5.30 tonight where its clearing up. People even after being knocked up are saying on the doorstep they will wait for the rain to.ease..if it doesnt then the results could be pretty skewed as voters warm and snug in their homes decide to stay there
More generally, I think the LibDem "dozens of leaflets" strategy has reached the wrong side of the curve. It has got to the point of antagonising voters. "They just look bloody desperate" as somebody commented to me yesterday.
Next time, fewer leaflets with more policies, eh?
You could say the same thing about the Tories in their target seats. We've had at least 8 all with different variations of themes...
so few... F&GG I've had 20 LD ,16 Con leaflet wise and several emails from both... not forgetting the single Labour leaflet.
Mr. Camel, better, though I would've gone with whippersnappers.
Raining quite a bit here now.
Whippersnappers, Morris? I've always suspected you lived in a posher part of God's own. Now I know. By the way, 'bairns' is well used in barnsley & ponty. Think it's a Scottish thing. I'll stick with nippers for wakey.
Aye, bairns is used in Ponte! Reckon it’s the influx of Geordies back in t’day that went darn t’pit.
I've put all the numbers from the opinion poll regional subsamples and I assumed a 7% Conservative lead on the back of the Mori best PM numbers, this is what I get:
CON 341 LAB 236 LD 11 SNP 40 PC 3 GRN 1
A lead of 7% in plain UNS also gives:
CON 339 LAB 232 LD 17 SNP 39 PC 3 GRN 1
Seems very plausible. Makes you wonder why YouGov spent so much effort on the MRP!
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
But also more time for Johnson than Corbyn.
Agreed, but given the reference was to Swinson we are talking Con/LD seats where Corbyn does not matter.
Wondering if the interesting betfair market tonight might not be so much the main overall majority one, but the Con over/under 317.5 (given the implications for Brexit). Currently at 1.22 over, 5.1 under.
There's also an over/under 340.5, which is u1.81, o2.16.
Cripes...Betfair Tory Majority market is serious drifting....1.52.
I'm not sure what useful 'big picture' information could have been gleaned to make this anything other than noise.
The market has over £15m of matched bets so seeing a few thousand moving the prices around wouldn't immediately make me think there is something afoot other than Betfair traders doing their thing.
If the layers start arriving with 6 figure sums then i'll sit up and take notice but even then you'd have to ask what the driver was.
It's a demical odd instead of fractional that's all. 3.10 = 21/10, so 10 quid on makes 21.00 quid. The decimal odds include the stake money, fractional doesn't. Pretty straightforward once you get used to it.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
But also more time for Johnson than Corbyn.
Agreed, but given the reference was to Swinson we are talking Con/LD seats where Corbyn does not matter.
I thought the whole point of voting tactically for LibDems was to deny the Tories a majority. In which case the only alternative is getting Corbyn as PM.
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
I've put all the numbers from the opinion poll regional subsamples and I assumed a 7% Conservative lead on the back of the Mori best PM numbers, this is what I get:
CON 341 LAB 236 LD 11 SNP 40 PC 3 GRN 1
A lead of 7% in plain UNS also gives:
CON 339 LAB 232 LD 17 SNP 39 PC 3 GRN 1
Seems very plausible. Makes you wonder why YouGov spent so much effort on the MRP!
If you get the correct lead in vote share you can use UNS within 10 seats, unless there is serious regional changes like in Scotland.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
I am talking from a strongly remain Tory seat (Guildford) which is typical of Swinson targets. Here even Tory activists despise Johnson. I do not doubt he appeals more in leave voting Con/Lab seats.
Afternoon everyone, I have been out and about this morning so not caught up. A wee thought about Scotland for the exit poll
SNP 50+ The unionist parties are almost back to 2015 and Swinson probably a gonner SNP 45-50 The SCons have held a few and SLab and SLib hanging on by their fingernails and Swinson may have survived SNP 40-44 The SCons holding on to most of the "Baker's dozen" and Swinson almost certainly ok SNP 35-39 SCons possibly swapping a couple of seats with SNP, Swinson fine and SLab and SLibs holding most seats SNP <35 SCons having a good night, SLab and SLibs doing ok too.
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
Cripes...Betfair Tory Majority market is serious drifting....1.52.
I'm not sure what useful 'big picture' information could have been gleaned to make this anything other than noise.
The market has over £15m of matched bets so seeing a few thousand moving the prices around wouldn't immediately make me think there is something afoot other than Betfair traders doing their thing.
If the layers start arriving with 6 figure sums then i'll sit up and take notice but even then you'd have to ask what the driver was.
Yep, suddenly back to 3.35. So anything today from 3.10 to 3.65. Big variations. In other words, nobody really has a fucking clue what's going on.
Just voted in Paisley and Renfrewshire North. Polling Station was dead. Sums up this election here - no canvassers and very few leaflets. No enthusiasm around here at all.
At the half-way point in the day, we turn to our man on the ground in marginal North-East Wales:
He confirms that there is both weather and turnout occurring, with occasional references to "brisk". What this means for the bigger picture, we'll have to wait until 10pm to find out.
Are there no reports from the Red Firewall? I was expecting numerous anecdotes by now along the lines of: 'Aye, that Boris bloke. Bit of a toff but he'll get Brexit done.'
We've had numerous amounts of those for the past 5 weeks.
These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.
It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).
If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.
Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?
"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
They all promised more affordable housing...
The headline is hilarious:
"Research shows voters want more homes in their local area, not less"
You try and build 50 or 60 and see what happens...
To be fair to the nimbies, too often the houses get built but not the wider roads, new schools and surgeries that will be needed for a thousand extra families.
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
That is a cracking price for those who still have the luxury of access to a 365 account.
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
My last fiver in the account, and I promised the wife no more deposits. Got 9/1. great headsup.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
I am talking from a strongly remain Tory seat (Guildford) which is typical of Swinson targets. Here even Tory activists despise Johnson. I do not doubt he appeals more in leave voting Con/Lab seats.
Cripes...Betfair Tory Majority market is serious drifting....1.52.
I'm not sure what useful 'big picture' information could have been gleaned to make this anything other than noise.
The market has over £15m of matched bets so seeing a few thousand moving the prices around wouldn't immediately make me think there is something afoot other than Betfair traders doing their thing.
If the layers start arriving with 6 figure sums then i'll sit up and take notice but even then you'd have to ask what the driver was.
Yep, suddenly back to 3.35. So anything today from 3.10 to 3.65. Big variations. In other words, nobody really has a fucking clue what's going on.
Cripes...Betfair Tory Majority market is serious drifting....1.52.
I'm not sure what useful 'big picture' information could have been gleaned to make this anything other than noise.
The market has over £15m of matched bets so seeing a few thousand moving the prices around wouldn't immediately make me think there is something afoot other than Betfair traders doing their thing.
If the layers start arriving with 6 figure sums then i'll sit up and take notice but even then you'd have to ask what the driver was.
Yep, suddenly back to 3.35. So anything today from 3.10 to 3.65. Big variations. In other words, nobody really has a fucking clue what's going on.
Surely just people trading in and out? If people really knew something it would not bounce back would it?
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
Democrats don’t want GOP voting SoCal to have self-rule
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE. Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%. Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats. So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories. As ever DYOR.
YouGov's MRP wasn't 6-7%, it was 9% down from 11%. However, if you look at their charts it was that particular day where the blip was, which was height of photo-gate. All the way before that, the Tory vote share hadn't even changed by >1%.
The two polls released which polled during photo-gate showed the smallest gap and the YouGov. Now it might well be that it has damaged Boris, but all the polls conducted since then have showed the Tory number exactly the same as the week before.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .
Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
At the half-way point in the day, we turn to our man on the ground in marginal North-East Wales:
He confirms that there is both weather and turnout occurring, with occasional references to "brisk". What this means for the bigger picture, we'll have to wait until 10pm to find out.
Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)
Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.
If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .
Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .
People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.
The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
May be true of a few, but especially amongst the older group there is a lot more time for Heseltine and Major than Johnson.
That may be true in your bubble but it certainly isn't in mine, particularly with regard to Heseltine (who in my personal opinion is King Tosser). Doesn't mean any of them are particularly well regarded
I am talking from a strongly remain Tory seat (Guildford) which is typical of Swinson targets. Here even Tory activists despise Johnson. I do not doubt he appeals more in leave voting Con/Lab seats.
A bubble is a bubble - like Brexit 😉
Guildford has a particularly moderate group of Tory bubble people (apart from one or two nutters who are not representative.)
Just done the old civic duty in NE Hants. Rural village hall polling station so everything's relative but it seems to have been "busier than normal" and "on track to exceed the usual GE turnout". Could be early voting due to the grotty weather and the nights drawing in though. We don't have "young people" here so Ranil has nothing to worry about
Comments
By the way, 'bairns' is well used in barnsley & ponty. Think it's a Scottish thing. I'll stick with nippers for wakey.
(I voted twice by the way
I need to check their 2015 eve of poll doc to confirm.
I know which I think is the correct interpretation....
Don't let Corbyn's Labour wreck the economy - again?
That sort of thing?
There always surprise results in marginals that should have flipped.
CON 341
LAB 236
LD 11
SNP 40
PC 3
GRN 1
A lead of 7% in plain UNS also gives:
CON 339
LAB 232
LD 17
SNP 39
PC 3
GRN 1
It made me laugh Sandy.
There's also an over/under 340.5, which is u1.81, o2.16.
The market has over £15m of matched bets so seeing a few thousand moving the prices around wouldn't immediately make me think there is something afoot other than Betfair traders doing their thing.
If the layers start arriving with 6 figure sums then i'll sit up and take notice but even then you'd have to ask what the driver was.
I think only the likes of YouGov with their MRP model will really know.
Jones homes being built there. Tiny things !
I appreciate what I am about to suggest isn't likely to be universally popular with PBers, but may nevertheless find favour with certain punters who have a particular betting profile on the GE.
Firstly, the basic premise. Over recent days, all the attention, including much media hype, etc has been focused on the Tories' supposedly narrowing lead over Labour. But has the underlying lead really shrunk to any meaningful degree? - Yes, we've seen some headline figures showing the lead with some pollsters, notably in YouGov's MRP poll shrink to 6% or 7%. But equally we've seen some very recent polls, yesterday and today even, with leads still showing at between 10% -12%.
Other factors which may assist the Tories in today's real poll is the very inclement weather, a higher proportion of postal votes than previously and dare one mention it, the shy Tory syndrome. It would be something of a surprise , but not totally shocking if the Tories were to finish up with an actual lead of 11%-12% over Labour and were this to happen what sort of majority would it provide? That would depend on a whole range of factors, not least regional variations, but overall a majority of between 80-100 would not be that surprising in such circumstances, implying the Tories winning between 365 and 375 seats.
So here's the bet ... those nice folk at Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 (11.0 decimal) against the Blue Team winning 370+ seats, equivalent to a majority of 90 seats. This looks like genuine value to me and would, for example provide some economically-priced insurance to those punters who may have gone a little overboard in over-backing Labour or in over-laying the Tories.
As ever DYOR.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e2BEqznnbsGQWcOqfGL2NOVLPI3wLp3C0iaL-q7pJBc/edit#gid=0
Beautiful homes on the site of Acton Hall at Ackworth.
SNP 50+ The unionist parties are almost back to 2015 and Swinson probably a gonner
SNP 45-50 The SCons have held a few and SLab and SLib hanging on by their fingernails and Swinson may have survived
SNP 40-44 The SCons holding on to most of the "Baker's dozen" and Swinson almost certainly ok
SNP 35-39 SCons possibly swapping a couple of seats with SNP, Swinson fine and SLab and SLibs holding most seats
SNP <35 SCons having a good night, SLab and SLibs doing ok too.
Personally I think the SNP will be 35-40.
He confirms that there is both weather and turnout occurring, with occasional references to "brisk". What this means for the bigger picture, we'll have to wait until 10pm to find out.
Back to the studio....
Final ELBOW data therefore gives:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.7 (+0.8)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.0 (-0.1)
Tory lead 9.4 (-0.7)
Comparisons with week-ending 8th Dec.
Why don't I get phone banked in Bootle?
(I know why)
The two polls released which polled during photo-gate showed the smallest gap and the YouGov. Now it might well be that it has damaged Boris, but all the polls conducted since then have showed the Tory number exactly the same as the week before.