politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim...

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.

CarlottaVance said:

Miaow...
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/1205109160934858752?s=20

I will be extremely sad to see Mike Gapes leave the Commons in this election, the loss of people like him is as, if not more damaging than the loss of to Phillip Hammonds to the Conservatives.

TheValiant said:

wooliedyed said:

I just voted. No queue, normal flow in and out. I learned nothing from it.

Likewise in my station in Bootle. It was 11am. I've never voted at 11am before. Normally about 9am or about 7pm. So I can't tell anything from it.

It wasn't as busy as May at the EU elections (when I voted at 7pm) but that tells me nowt really. Two elderly people leaving when I arrived (Reckon they voted Labour). One person rushed in and out whilst I was there (reckon they voted Labour too). One person arrived as I was leaving (Reckon they'll vote Labour).

Prediction for my seat is a Labour HOLD.

Lab hold Bootle? Well I suppose it's a view.

wooliedyed said:

I hope Bojo has trolled Neil today and phoned to offer him an interview

Johnson is a gutless pillock. Can you imagine Margaret Thatcher chickening out of an interview with any journo? Absolutely not. Johnson fancies himself as a latter day Churchill, when even the most superficial analysis shows he is not fit to lick the great man's boots.

Gabs3 said:

These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

The key thing to remember though is that most of these pictures are from London or other metropolitan cities.

I think someone accused me of being flippant earlier by suggesting London didn’t matter for the GE result - clearly in a close contest Tory losses there will matter. But the general picture is that many of these inner city London or Manchester seats are solidly Labour and they will be piling up votes where it’s not required.

RobinWiggs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/misselliemae/status/1205113837382447104

Me thinks it’s a Labour gain

You can tell little from the fervent rumours during the day. It may be correct, it may not. Posters all have a reason for tweeting their thoughts.

Far better to wait for anecdotes on here from people we know and trust, or who we know are connected to party operations and might legitimately have some insights.

Betvictor have a special bet on site. IDS to win Chingford and Con majority. Even money. I'd have priced it shorter but not backing it.

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim...

It is very grim ooop North.

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

noneoftheabove said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1205067236538560512?s=21

I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.

Yes, I think that is right. On the other hand the LibDem campaign has been a straightforward disaster.

I cant disagree with that. The maths of coming from the 2017 GE with so few competitive seats for them was hugely problematic regardless of the campaigning though. Getting dozens of close 2nd places would still be some progress even if they dont win many seats.

The graphs from YouGov’s model still predict an increase in LibDem vote share in the large majority of seats.

And Jo still stands a chance of being the only party leader to come out of 2019 with a higher vote share than 2017. Possibly excluding the nationalists.

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.

We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/esbarnard_/status/1205110560561487874?s=20

I fail to see the problem with Labour campaigning to win seats. Their problem was the slow and partial response to anti semitism which is shameful, but they are perfectly entitled to campaign where they like.

TrèsDifficile said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

numbertwelve said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Now they need help in Battersea.

Both marginals, interesting

You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking

Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery

No.

A quick competition on what you should rename yourself?

I like BrainwashedBattery, has a nice ring to it

If I understand the origin of your name correctly, you can choose whatever you like provided it is at least 15 digits long and has one upper case letter, one lower case, one number and a punctuation mark.

I think it's four words, all lower case letters, to make it easy to remember
https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/password_strength.png

Or he/she comes from Canada.

https://what3words.com/correct.horses.battery

Battersea is supposed to be Lab 51%, Con 33% according to the YouGov MRP.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

Boris should be safe enough in Uxbridge: there will always be a sufficient pool of neutrals in any seat who think that having the PM as their MP is a badge of honour. Boris's voting in the other constituency did come across as a touch supercilious though.

Fenster said:

brokenwheel said:

ralphmalph said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/misselliemae/status/1205113837382447104

Me thinks it’s a Labour gain

Or the Labour GOTV is not working.

It may well turn out to be bollocks but;

https://twitter.com/AngstromHoot/status/1205104246573715456
https://twitter.com/AngstromHoot/status/1205113095338762240
https://twitter.com/broseph_stalin/status/1205113538110541824

All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.

And why not if it gets people to actually go and vote..

Gabs3 said:

These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

The words straws and clutching spring to mind. This is a massacre! Labour are already burying the dead, and some will be really big beasts.

brokenwheel said:

Fenster said:

brokenwheel said:

ralphmalph said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/misselliemae/status/1205113837382447104

Me thinks it’s a Labour gain

Or the Labour GOTV is not working.

It may well turn out to be bollocks but;

https://twitter.com/AngstromHoot/status/1205104246573715456
https://twitter.com/AngstromHoot/status/1205113095338762240
https://twitter.com/broseph_stalin/status/1205113538110541824

All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.

Yep, quite possible.

What? More likely to put them off. Standing in a rainy queue isn't that appealing for anyone of any age

Northern Anecdata Incoming. Followup from the location of Crick's faked Tory Voxpop, no less. By Bonko.

Unlike Southerner Smithson in Bedford, Ashfield is part of the North for today.

Weather: so bloody miserable it might as well be in the North.
Car park: full but perhaps for Christmas lunches at t'pub, not just voting.
Present: Lab GOTV team. Looking as miserable as the weather, but there. First one for anybody I have ever seen there.
Garden signs: Couple Tory, Couple Lab, dozen Indy.
Voting: brisk. Apparently 200 through by 12:30, compared to about 500 total all day in a normal General Election. Seems a bit more brisk,

Is that it? Yes.

Tipster: Bloke who sold me eggs in the farm shop thinks it will be the Tory.

Mr. Camel, 'bairns'?

*sighs*

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.

We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.

Is that you Lady Whiteadder?

disaffectedandlost said:

Gabs3 said:

These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Camel, 'bairns'?

*sighs*

nippers

sorry

El_Capitano said:

Today on PB is doing a great job of proving that, in the words of William Goldman, nobody knows anything.

Apart from John Curtice, and he's not telling.

John Curtice, Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings.

Update on the Daily Mail page.

I have just refreshed the page (without having done anything else in between) and the big Conservative banner ad takeover is all over it.

I'm guessing that means they are showing it to *everyone* in the UK as the browser I am using has no personally identifying information other than IP address (a VPN with a UK location).

That will cost them. Unless their mates at the DM are doing them a very special price.

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim...

Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI

Using the Ipsos Mori final preffered PM numbers the Conservative lead is 7%.
That's a majority of around 2-24.

Nigel_Foremain said:

wooliedyed said:

I hope Bojo has trolled Neil today and phoned to offer him an interview

Johnson is a gutless pillock. Can you imagine Margaret Thatcher chickening out of an interview with any journo? Absolutely not. Johnson fancies himself as a latter day Churchill, when even the most superficial analysis shows he is not fit to lick the great man's boots.

Suck it up..

eek said:

nico67 said:

Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.

They should have portrayed themselves as the moderate choice but their revoke position looks a bit extremist even for some Remainers .

I think the deal would have eventually got through anyway , and let’s say it didn’t what the hell was the EU supposed to do in January .

Say okay there’s a few more months for MPs to argue and still not find a resolution .

The extension until the end of January was only granted because they thought an election was nailed on . Sorry to say but the EU just want rid of the UK now . A few countries might still hope there’d be a change of mind but these are a small minority .

I spend a lot of time in France , no one even talks about Brexit , the papers have only shown a bit more interest now because of the GE but before you’d be lucky to find an item that didn’t end up next to the personal ads !

I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .

Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .

If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .

Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .

People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.

The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.

Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/esbarnard_/status/1205110560561487874?s=20

I fail to see the problem with Labour campaigning to win seats. Their problem was the slow and partial response to anti semitism which is shameful, but they are perfectly entitled to campaign where they like.

It is a bit 'dog in the manger' to campaign just to ruin the chances of a former colleague who was driven out. Especially when you need all the help you can get to keep your own seats and especially when your action will help the real enemy.

Eight hours till the bong.

camel said:

disaffectedandlost said:

Gabs3 said:

These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

"The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"

They all promised more affordable housing...

Scrapheap_as_was said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1205055468177100800

Hoorar - one of our first never happened reports...

i've seen that 'meme' do the rounds before.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

ozymandias said:

I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.

Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.

I read it and have never voted Conservative and doubt I ever will.
Read it for sport and sci/tech mostly. It is free and fairly comprehensive

beentheredonethat said:

CarlottaVance said:

For once, some sense:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205101437899943937?s=20
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205104858845593601?s=20

Bloody hell! I agree with him. One of us has lost his marbles

I bet it was Gina Miller asking...

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim...

Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight

Bolton, Barnsley, Nelson, Colne, Burnley, Bradford, Buxton, Crewe...

All of them are South of us - note just south not the Beautiful South...

To add to voting reports: I voted at 11.00 this morning in Merrow, Guildford. Pretty quiet, but what was surprising was that only the LDs had a teller.At every previous election I remember in the 20 years since I moved here there have been both LD and Tory tellers. Surprising as Merrow is more Tory than most Guildford town wards.

Pulpstar said:

Pies for votes in NE Fife !

https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1205101017492267009

"Their claims are absolute mince."

Pies.

Does make the LibDems look pretty damned po-faced though. As they dispense a dozen leaflets all paid for by the central office and that have nothing to do with this constituency, no sirreee...

LibDem "non-seat specific expenditures" are such a flagrant breach of the spirit of election expenses law.

I've voted outside of London for the first time in a GE.
Been voting since 1983 and I've never had to queue.

RobinWiggs said:

beentheredonethat said:

CarlottaVance said:

For once, some sense:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205101437899943937?s=20
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205104858845593601?s=20

Bloody hell! I agree with him. One of us has lost his marbles

I bet it was Gina Miller asking...

My guess would be Lord Adonis

PeterMannion said:

Freggles said:

just checking, is it OK to share turnout information passed on from polling station staff to candidates?

Not live on the 1 o'clock news if you're the Beeb's Political Editor

Turnout information isn't a problem - any comment on how the actual votes are is...

Scrapheap_as_was said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1205055468177100800

Hoorar - one of our first never happened reports...

To be fair, and I hope the Tories win, that particular result wouldn't upset me too greatly.

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.

Mike : forget the economics (including Brexit) if you can. Think about fundamentals.

Johnson is a tosser but he won’t do irreparable harm. Corbyn is either evil or happy to facilitate evil.

Hold your nose and lend your vote to the Conservatives. If it ends up being Tories by 1 MP then you will have done a good thing in keeping Corbyn out. If it ends up with a large Tory majority you didn’t make a difference.

Vote Tory despite the economy? Interesting logic

Brexit and Johnson can do irreparable harm

wooliedyed said:

IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight

It probably isn't true though, you often get this dark arts stuff. I just posted to show where it's coming from.

Slackbladder said:

wooliedyed said:

IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight

I can't see it in central london.

Me either tbf

Remember folks Vote! Vote! Vote for Nigel Barton!

(one for the over 50s there)

Phil said:

Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:

nico67 said:

Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.


I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .

Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .

If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .

Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .

People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.

The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.

Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.

If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.

More generally, I think the LibDem "dozens of leaflets" strategy has reached the wrong side of the curve. It has got to the point of antagonising voters. "They just look bloody desperate" as somebody commented to me yesterday.

Next time, fewer leaflets with more policies, eh?

CorrectHorseBattery said:

numbertwelve said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Now they need help in Battersea.

Both marginals, interesting

You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking

Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery

Could you not fit the Staple in your username?