politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters on CON & the LDs are more bullish than the MRP project

RobinWiggs said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stockton South Constituency Voting Intention:

CON: 46% (+1)
LAB: 43% (-5)
BXP: 7% (+7)
LDM: 3% (+2)

Via @Survation, 9 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2017.

One of my early bets. Looking for Lab held seats where Leave won and the Brexit vote in MRP1 was sizeable and higher than the gap between Lab and Con. Not a sophisticated strategy but hopefully reasonably successful.

Oh there you are - thanks v much for your views on the NHS the other day.

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

MattW said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Time_to_Leave said:

ralphmalph said:

Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.

Or it’s in the bag...

Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).

I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).

I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.

If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.

MRP vastly overestimated independents (Particularly Claire Wright) in 2017.

The question is whether they have altered their methodology since, and in particular whether they might have over-corrected.

I've been at work. Anything happened. Is CHB tim? I think we should be told!

42-43% is looking like the number for the Tories. I really does comes down to Labour / Lib Dem split.

It is quite incredible that we are seeing poll after poll averaging about ~10% lead and yet the election is still on a knife edge.

Here's where the chart stands with the three polls we've had so far today

https://imgur.com/Qnlm4g0

IanB2 said:

Guido now saying it wasn’t acid

If your colleague was attacked with acid, I'm sure the last thing on your mind would be to report it immediately to the Guido Fawkes website. Sounds as if Guido has been played, yet again, by CCHQ.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NEW: @MattSingh_'s writeup of our voting intention poll for Bloomberg is now online. Full figures and changes from 2017:

CON 43 (-1)
LAB 33 (-8)
LD 12 (+4)
SNP 4 (+1)
PC 1 (=)
BXP 3 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)

Fieldwork 8th-10th Dec
N=1,009
#GE2019
https://t.co/bIl46gbVvN

Who did the poll? Or is it just a poll of polls?

NumberCruncher for Bloomberg, according to the article, which is full of unsurprising observations.

RobD said:

Here's where the chart stands with the three polls we've had so far today

https://imgur.com/Qnlm4g0

Tories could do with a bit of Rod Crosby trademarked swing-back on the day.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43 (+16)
LAB: 33 (+2)
LDM: 12 (-3)
BXP: 3 (-11)
GRN: 3 (-1)

Via @NCPoliticsUK, 8-10 Dec.
Changes w/ 18-21 May (!).

Hm, a bit on the generous side I think.

Looks like the Indy have been had over

https://twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1204801099892477952?s=21

RobinWiggs said:

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43 (+16)
LAB: 33 (+2)
LDM: 12 (-3)
BXP: 3 (-11)
GRN: 3 (-1)

Via @NCPoliticsUK, 8-10 Dec.
Changes w/ 18-21 May (!).

+16! Con Surge.

Change compared to May! But I thought the same initially. The klaxon went off!

I couldn't help it

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

FrancisUrquhart said:

42-43% is looking like the number for the Tories. I really does comes down to Labour / Lib Dem split.

It is quite incredible that we are seeing poll after poll averaging about ~10% lead and yet the election is still on a knife edge.

Some people perceive it to be in a knife edge. Doesn’t mean it is. But the dynamics of a 6% lead not being enough for a majority is interesting - and in part due to unequal constituency sizes. I would expect the next Conservative government will progress the boundary review and reduction in seats.

isam said:

Looks like the Indy have been had over

twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1204801099892477952?s=21

I have now watched a few interviews with Andrew Doyle who is behind that (and also used to write Jonathan Pie stuff). It is very interesting to hear his views.

RobinWiggs said:

TOPPING said:

RobinWiggs said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stockton South Constituency Voting Intention:

CON: 46% (+1)
LAB: 43% (-5)
BXP: 7% (+7)
LDM: 3% (+2)

Via @Survation, 9 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2017.

One of my early bets. Looking for Lab held seats where Leave won and the Brexit vote in MRP1 was sizeable and higher than the gap between Lab and Con. Not a sophisticated strategy but hopefully reasonably successful.

Oh there you are - thanks v much for your views on the NHS the other day.

My pleasure. Sorry if I was long-winded!

Not at all. We are all trying to unlock the mystery of the NHS so all views, especially an "insider" view, is super interesting. Thanks.

Anorak said:

MattW said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Jesus. My colleague has just written Christmas as 'exmas' and I'm torn between laughing at him and throwing a stapler at his head. Thoughts?

Staple something to his head.

Did he write "exmas" or Xmas? If it is the latter that is perfectly traditional and acceptable, as the X comes from the Greek Chi standing for Christos.

If the former then he is a virtue-signalling but shy atheist.

He wrote "exmas". Five letters. Xmas would have been absolutely fine.

Weird! That would mean the celebration of "ex", which sounds rather sinister! Maybe it was a typo or he was dyslexic and meant to write "Happy exams" to someone who was about to take on?

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

She should be fired enough is enough . She’s not supposed to make any suggestions at all over postal voting . We all know postal votes tend to be better for the Tories but a BBC reporter should not be doing anything to effect voting tomorrow.

RobinWiggs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

42-43% is looking like the number for the Tories. I really does comes down to Labour / Lib Dem split.

It is quite incredible that we are seeing poll after poll averaging about ~10% lead and yet the election is still on a knife edge.

Some people perceive it to be in a knife edge. Doesn’t mean it is. But the dynamics of a 6% lead not being enough for a majority is interesting - and in part due to unequal constituency sizes. I would expect the next Conservative government will progress the boundary review and reduction in seats.

MPs voting for fewer MPs, I doubt it. And if say 20% of the vote is anti Tory rather than pro Lab/LD which I think is roughly a fair reflection, then it is democratically fair that a 6% lead does not translate into a majority.

Jason said:

This could be very damaging for Labour -

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/15-ex-labour-mps-eve-000100888.html

Advert in local papers. How many here read their local papers every day? Aren’t most weekly these days anyway? It ought to make a difference, but I’m not sure how many will even notice it.

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

I found that weird as well, is there no editorial oversight at the BBC anymore?

My unscientific view is that the betting markets lean Right not infrequently, betraying the punters' own personal proclivities and a sense of wish fulfillment

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Betfair market isn't reacting at all to what the 3rd poll (?) today showing a 10%+ lead for the Tories.

its a leap of faith. I read a tweet somewhere that said to win a decent majority the tories must win seats that have been labour for an average of fifty years.

Whatever the issues, it is still quite a stretch.

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Betfair market isn't reacting at all to what the 3rd poll (?) today showing a 10%+ lead for the Tories.

It doesn’t poll very often and not one of the more well known names so I suppose they’re waiting for some of the others to come through .

nico67 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Betfair market isn't reacting at all to what the 3rd poll (?) today showing a 10%+ lead for the Tories.

It doesn’t poll very often and not one of the more well known names so I suppose they’re waiting for some of the others to come through .

Not just this one, that is the 3rd of the day.

MattW said:

My cleaner this morning says she thinks Zadrozzle has it, or as some people locally know him "the one with the funny name".

I think the Tory candidate is suffering from a bit of the Swinson syndrome - a very popular, bluff local Councillor for Labour, possibly f*cked over by the local party (they have done it to others including a former Council Leader) but being too personal afterwards, suddenly put on a stage bigger than they are used to. I did not know that he was a former Scargillite.

The bit about the sex abuse charges is I think a rumour believed to have been generated by the BNP ten years earlier which was warmed over by person or persons unknown weeks before the 2015 election and hit the local papers. In my view the most damaged party by all that are the Notts Constabulary.

I think we want one of those verbatim plays about it.

Probably a very good call by Gloria to withdraw with dignity and reputation intact.

Yes, Ashfield (next to Broxtowe) was always a snakepit - whenever you met anyone from any party from there they'd start telling you how they hated someone else. A shock to the system after the amiable ways of Broxtowe.

Labour hasn't given up and hopes to slip through the middle. ButZadrozny's chances do look good.

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Betfair market isn't reacting at all to what the 3rd poll (?) today showing a 10%+ lead for the Tories.

its a leap of faith. I read a tweet somewhere that said to win a decent majority the tories must win seats that have been labour for an average of fifty years.

Whatever the issues, it is still quite a stretch.

That's a bit misleading though, as many of these seats are very tight marginals that have been slowly drifting away from Labour. Wrexham, Bishop Auckland, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke North, Dudley North are all seats that voted heavily leave and have a 5% or less majority.

isam said:

Looks like the Indy have been had over

https://twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1204801099892477952?s=21

That was well played.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

The whole thing is just nuts

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.

Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.

This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

How would she know that? She must be making an assumption (old folk etc?).

Stocky said:

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

How would she know that? She must be making an assumption (old folk etc?).

She said she had talked to party officials who told her this. Either she is lying or she should be reporting the party officials to the appropriate authorities.

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.

Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.

This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.

Stupid question

Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"

end of

?

contrarian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HaroldO said:

eek said:

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

Yes because the votes should not have been seen.

Mind you does it get Labour votes out tomorrow and / or keep Tory "voters" from voting

Pretty sure party officials watch the opening and counting of postal votes.

If they do they should be stopped. I think postal voting should be stopped except in extreme or exceptional cases.

Couldn'y it be argued that postal voting a kind of infringement of the principle of a secret ballot?

We don't have a secret ballot. Each ballot is numbered, and the number of your ballot paper recorded next to your name. They can come for you when they need to.

JonCisBack said:

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.

Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.

This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.

Stupid question

Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"

end of

?

Because France and Germany will all have little things they want like a finance transaction tax...

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A Tory activist was sprayed with perfume in today

The activist is not thought to be hurt

But smelling nice

Regardless of the liquid it’s still an assault and designed to shock and demoralise.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

Yep, that’s more or less what I expect.

So stability starts to return to both the UK and EU from the end of 2020, and the referendum mandate is honoured too.

If you Vote Conservative.

With the collapse of the WTO court the UK is now in an even weaker position in terms of trade deals .

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

alb1on said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Guido

EXCLUSIVE Tory Activist Attacked with Acid in Barnet https://t.co/caW9vEdXo9 https://t.co/Q1LfpP03ZH

If this is true, it is a criminal act that is unacceptable and the culprits should be punished with the full force of the law. However, until it is verified I would remain skeptical because of the source. If it turns out to be another of Guido's scheming tactics that is also outrageous.

If Guido is anyway associated with the reporting, treat it as complete bunkum.

If the Russia report has not included a look at Guido's finances it is incomplete. There are many ways of funnelling money, including overpromoting a wife and paying her 10 times what she is worth.

As a bachelor I have to ask how much is a wife worth ?

Google has an answer for everything. http://www.dowrycalculator.com/

alb1on said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Guido

EXCLUSIVE Tory Activist Attacked with Acid in Barnet https://t.co/caW9vEdXo9 https://t.co/Q1LfpP03ZH

If this is true, it is a criminal act that is unacceptable and the culprits should be punished with the full force of the law. However, until it is verified I would remain skeptical because of the source. If it turns out to be another of Guido's scheming tactics that is also outrageous.

If Guido is anyway associated with the reporting, treat it as complete bunkum.

If the Russia report has not included a look at Guido's finances it is incomplete. There are many ways of funnelling money, including overpromoting a wife and paying her 10 times what she is worth.

We on PB, we do not need the Russia Report. Guido was discredited here as far back as the Cash For Honours inquiry, as given the bum's rush shortley thereafter.

isam said:

Looks like the Indy have been had over

https://twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1204801099892477952?s=21

What kind of numpty puts that kind of acrostic into an article?

noneoftheabove said:

JonCisBack said:

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:

"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.

We can but hope!

Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.

Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.

This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.

Stupid question

Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"

end of

?

Because the UK will not agree to a level playing field and the EU will demand that for no tariffs on anything.

THE EU won't accept a tariff free deal without free movement amongst other things.

And Boris can't offer free movement because he wants control of immigration.

If you really think Brexit is finished when we leave you are in for a big surprise - it hasn't really started yet and only starts when we are on the back foot..

Around the same time, in June 2017, cut and pasted below
Political Polling 4th June 2017
The Conservatives look set to secure an increased majority inThursday’s general election despite a challenging election campaign, according to our final poll.
Our final poll indicates that the Conservatives will capture 43% of the vote on Thursday, compared to 36% for Labour, securing the Conservatives another overall majority. This is in stark contrast to the 19 point lead held by the Conservatives at the beginning of the party’s campaign. However, the Labour poll ‘surge’ appears to have crested with the party slipping back by a point as the Conservatives remain steady.
--- Guess which pollingg agency

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

MattW said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Time_to_Leave said:

ralphmalph said:

Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.

Or it’s in the bag...

Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).

I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).

I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.

If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.

MRP vastly overestimated independents (Particularly Claire Wright) in 2017.

The question is whether they have altered their methodology since, and in particular whether they might have over-corrected.

Its about how they bring together two very different inputs - the results of a local poll that has a small sample and big potential error - and the results of a demographic model that has high potential accuracy at national level but doesn’t necessarily fit every seat. My assumption was always that last time the E Devon sampling error went in Wright’s favour, and YouGov ran with it having no way to model her voters from the demographics.

melcf said:

Around the same time, in June 2017, cut and pasted below
Political Polling 4th June 2017
The Conservatives look set to secure an increased majority inThursday’s general election despite a challenging election campaign, according to our final poll.
Our final poll indicates that the Conservatives will capture 43% of the vote on Thursday, compared to 36% for Labour, securing the Conservatives another overall majority. This is in stark contrast to the 19 point lead held by the Conservatives at the beginning of the party’s campaign. However, the Labour poll ‘surge’ appears to have crested with the party slipping back by a point as the Conservatives remain steady.
--- Guess which pollingg agency

Haven't pollsters tweaked their methodology since then?

ClippP said:

HaroldO said:

eek said:

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

Yes because the votes should not have been seen.
Mind you does it get Labour votes out tomorrow and / or keep Tory "voters" from voting

Pretty sure party officials watch the opening and counting of postal votes.

If that is true, it would be illegal. Can you tell us all where it happens, please?

Laura K should be able to:

“The postal votes have already arrived. The parties are not meant to look at it but they do get a hint and on both sides people are telling me that the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country.”

Peter_the_Punter said:

alb1on said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Guido

EXCLUSIVE Tory Activist Attacked with Acid in Barnet https://t.co/caW9vEdXo9 https://t.co/Q1LfpP03ZH

If this is true, it is a criminal act that is unacceptable and the culprits should be punished with the full force of the law. However, until it is verified I would remain skeptical because of the source. If it turns out to be another of Guido's scheming tactics that is also outrageous.

If Guido is anyway associated with the reporting, treat it as complete bunkum.

If the Russia report has not included a look at Guido's finances it is incomplete. There are many ways of funnelling money, including overpromoting a wife and paying her 10 times what she is worth.

We on PB, we do not need the Russia Report. Guido was discredited here as far back as the Cash For Honours inquiry, as given the bum's rush shortley thereafter.

But wouldn't it be nice to see him exposed as a Russian lackey in the national media?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Quite an interesting article on the Scottish battlegrounds:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/corbyn-and-sturgeon-trade-blows-before-battle-for-scottish-marginals?CMP=share_btn_tw

Executive summary: No-one has a clue.

Scottish Labour holding five seats in the MRP was certainly a surprise, but thinking about it there's not really any reason why anyone who voted for Scottish Labour in 2017 would be tempted to switch their vote. They can focus all their resources on just these seats as well.

Jamei said:

melcf said:

Heavy rains forecasted for tomorrow, across the country. Some places in the North to even have snow! Bet 365 has reduced it's over/ under turnout, from 67.5 to 66.
Bad weather may affect the elderly and those with mobility/ health issues.
Given that there are neary 85 seats on less than 5% margin, may make a crucial difference. Postal voting has only been 20-25% of the overall.

It seems most places will have a relatively dry morning with heavy rain in the afternoon and evening. Are elderly people more likely to vote in the morning perhaps? People coming home from work may not worry as they'll already be outside, but those thinking of popping out especially after dinner might decide not to bother.

Most elderly I know do not like going out after dark. Many people do not like driving in the dark. I suspect that most pensioners who are intent on voting will do it earlier in the day.

ClippP said:

HaroldO said:

eek said:

bigjohnowls said:

Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?

Yes because the votes should not have been seen.
Mind you does it get Labour votes out tomorrow and / or keep Tory "voters" from voting

Pretty sure party officials watch the opening and counting of postal votes.

If that is true, it would be illegal. Can you tell us all where it happens, please?

They are verified in batches by the ERO, usually at town halls. The parties are entitled to send observers - but normally don’t bother since the papers are supposed to be kept face down so normally you don’t see very much. And it is illegal to reveal any information so derived while the election is still in progress. Whether a generalised national statement would fall foul is another question. The bigger issue is that it is almost certainly bollocks put about by someone who just wants to seem in the know.