politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the T
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The error bars capture the Monte Carlo element, but the headline is just all the individual seats added up I think.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
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If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.
I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.1 -
That makes a huge difference to the headline's accuracy, surely. Anyone able to say for certain?rcs1000 said:
The error bars capture the Monte Carlo element, but the headline is just all the individual seats added up I think.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
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Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
That would be my preference too. At least it still leaves Boris owning Brexit- for good or bad.bigjohnowls said:
Who , Ramsey?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic
Lab wont be forming a Govt IMO but hopefully enough seats that Tories dont have a Majority either.0 -
Even further cry from Survation on Saturday night....If that is the true picture, then it is 100 majority.Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
And then the diehard Remainers voting for Corbyn will get exactly the opposite of what they want, but also exactly what they deserve.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.speedy2 said:
The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.eek said:
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
No Deal is far less likely if Boris has a majority!0 -
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.egg said:
That is your spun Tory view, but labour voters see the lifelong labour MPs and ex ministers like thisCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
there shouldn’t be any anger towards them, all Labour leadership should urge followers and social media users not to show anger towards these people. everyone goes on a political journey in their life. They deserve to be heard as much as anyone as they bow out of frontline politics …leaving the country and the world in such fine shape where Woodcock in particular supported the unfair slaughter in Yemen, where they have endorsed Bad Brexit deals, and urging you to keep the rotten Tories in power and telling you to vote for privatisation of the NHS.
But its right they go having, like some people do as they get older, drifted so far to right they are at home supporting Britain's most right wing government, in the case of Mann, accepting job working for Boris and his ERG cabinet.
Truth is, as they bow out, the next generation coming into politics have to put right the mess on the rail, in the energy bills, at the foodbanks, around the housing crisis, the unfair foreign wars that these guys supported and walking away from.
Where I would take some issue though is how confused and rather fatuous they are in their movement against extremism, as they endorse Boris extremist policies, they endorse Boris Hard Brexit deal, as these crusaders against extremism tar every Labour candidate every party member and every enthusiastic volunteer as antisemitic and racist, yet they endorse islamophobia in the Tory party out the same mouth.
its not anger but sympathy we should feel for these lost souls. When the time comes, pray it be many years hence, may St Peter be merciful on them, as we pray he is merciful on everyone who lost their soul along the way.
And if you see it like that. That being the truth, No shame in voting labour.1 -
I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.
He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.
Same thing happened in 2017.0 -
You must have some expensive plants.eek said:
I can't vote for someone I could never employ.bigjohnowls said:
Grow upCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...0 -
Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html
Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?1 -
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
and some northern seats that have very different results depending on whether you use the yougov or panelbase MRPs.HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
He was campaigning in Bristol yesterday where no seats are at stake, including the surrounding areas.speedy2 said:I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.
He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.
Same thing happened in 2017.0 -
Indeed. The best bet for those who want to avoid a No Deal Brexit is a reasonable Tory majority. Any of the other realistic outcomes at this point - from a Hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party to a very small Tory majority makes No Deal Brexit more likely.BluerBlue said:
And then the diehard Remainers voting for Corbyn will get exactly the opposite of what they want, but also exactly what they deserve.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.speedy2 said:
The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.eek said:
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
No Deal is far less likely if Boris has a majority!0 -
Thanks for alerting me to that change, I missed it earlier.wooliedyed said:
No I mean the change of 17 seats from yesterday to today shown on their dataAndy_JS said:
Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?wooliedyed said:I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?
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Good man. You will be counted amongst the honourable people, and you are storing up treasures in Heaven.SouthamObserver said:
There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?Casino_Royale said:
What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
Good night PB0 -
This must have been focus-grouped for the northern, midlands and welsh ex-industrial areas.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html
Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?0 -
Yep. If this doesn't get the BXP holdouts off their arses, nothing will.WhisperingOracle said:
This must be focus-grouped for the northern ex-industrial areas..FrancisUrquhart said:Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html
Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?1 -
I am sure it was and will be popular there...but will also piss of your Guildford Tory. And it seems Tories aren't doing as well in the North (as I predicted) and struggling in the South.WhisperingOracle said:
This must be focus-grouped for the northern ex-industrial areas..FrancisUrquhart said:Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html
Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?0 -
There's multiple ways of calculating error bars. It could be a brute force MC, or it could be an empirical calculation based on sample size. You can't tell by looking.Richard_Nabavi said:
Are you sure? I don't think that's right - look at the error bars on their headline forecast.rcs1000 said:
One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.Brom said:Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.
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One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.0 -
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
As long as it's 5 years and not 2 days, I'll count that as a big win!FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
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As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.FrancisUrquhart said:
THIS....speedy2 said:
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.
It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.0 -
Tactical voting can’t really be built into any of it. Say 5% of each labour and Lib Dem vote for the other, the headline PV doesn’t move an inch, but those thousands, hundreds and thousands of votes could account for 20 or 30 seats, some not even thought of in play.FrancisUrquhart said:
THIS....speedy2 said:
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.
It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
Moggs seat for example. It has returned labour MP. Most recent elections the Lib Dem’s done well giving Mogg himself libdem counsellor People built into moggs fine majority have voted other things in the past, not solid base, he is standing on quick sand.0 -
By shutting up and just deciding quietly like the rest of us have?SouthamObserver said:
There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?Casino_Royale said:
What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
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Not if you want to see a return to centrist politics.BluerBlue said:
As long as it's 5 years and not 2 days, I'll count that as a big win!FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
Ideal result if decent Tory win, but not landslide, Labour smashed (especially in the North that they have taken for granted for so long), and Lib Dem do better than predicted by getting Labourites like SO who just can't vote for their party, and get rid of some of the really big bellends in the Tory Party.
It isn't going to happen unfortunately.0 -
Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=200
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Byronic mentioned Truro earlier today. New figures:
Con 46%, Lab 38%, LD 11%.0 -
You know how fast the news cycle moves, right? On Thursday the photo will be a relative memory, just as Corbyn's antisemitism meltdown with Neil was gone just a couple of days later.eek said:
As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.FrancisUrquhart said:
THIS....speedy2 said:
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.
It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.0 -
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.0 -
I'm suprised to see Survation and YouGov diverge so much in the final days0
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It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=00 -
That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.HYUFD said:twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
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He suddently campaigned in north Wales and Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan.Andy_JS said:
He was campaigning in Bristol yesterday where no seats are at stake, including the surrounding areas.speedy2 said:I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.
He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.
Same thing happened in 2017.
It doesn't make sence visiting seats so different unless he has a Crystal Ball into the Yougov MRP or another MRP producing almost identical results.0 -
The news cycle may change but it's the lasting image you want. And ideally you want it 2-3 days before the decision is made to let it sink in...BluerBlue said:
You know how fast the news cycle moves, right? On Thursday the photo will be a relative memory, just as Corbyn's antisemitism meltdown with Neil was gone just a couple of days later.eek said:
As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.FrancisUrquhart said:
THIS....speedy2 said:
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.
It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.
That photo couldn't have appeared at a worse time bar 9pm last night - it will need something big to trump it.
Also a lot of people don't get the news, they just get the bits others are talking about. And if yesterday and today were about the NHS I don't know what Wednesday will be about.
And thursday is the election and a lot of people won't be talking politics at all then.0 -
Because it was ever thus?El_Capitano said:
One of the biggest unknowns in this election is tribal loyalty.Nobidexx said:I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.
YouGov's MRP, as you've noted, seems to play this down. There are plenty of constituencies where they're projecting Labour below their traditional floor.
This is crucial because, if YouGov are wrong on this, then their projections for the "red wall" are unreliable. And without breaching the red wall, the Conservatives don't have a majority.
I suspect that if Labour have a chance of holding off the Conservatives on Thursday, it will be down to voters in Midlands/Wales seats who take their ballot paper into the booth, hesitate... and then put a cross next to Labour as they have done for every election in the last 40 years. But how can you model a last-minute unknown like that?
And models have worked before0 -
I'm with Sean Fear. IF the Tories are 9% ahead (that's the key measure), then a majority of only 28 just doesn't seem right. Much more likely 40-50.1
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If the Tories could have asked for a polling outcome at this stage in the campaign, it would have been this. They need to convince people that a Corbyn lead Government is a very real possibility.
I think people are punishing Boris, and think he's awful, but I'm not confident that they will vote for Corbynomics because of such moral objections. If it was a policy wobble it would be more damaging.0 -
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).0 -
With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.Andy_JS said:It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=00 -
He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.eek said:
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.0 -
100% and I think there are plenty of seats within the MOE Yougov doesn’t have them taking. If the final margin is closer to 7% then a 20 seat majority sounds about right.JohnO said:I'm with Sean Fear. IF the Tories are 9% ahead (that's the key measure), then a majority of only 28 just doesn't seem right. Much more likely 40-50.
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Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?Andy_JS said:
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
Correct. It may have been 15.BluerBlue said:
With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.Andy_JS said:It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=00 -
It isn't, their vote is more efficient, sweeping Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands while holding seats with smaller majorities in the South.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.HYUFD said:twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
Labour piling up votes in London but only gaining just 2 Tory seats in the capital0 -
A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
1 -
Ooh tomorrow is polling day.0
-
Almost exactly identical to the average polling regional subsamples with 3 differences.HYUFD said:Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
Wales which has Labour way ahead instead of a tie, Labour doing a bit better in the Midlands, and the Conservatives doing way worse in London.
The entire difference in seats is Wales and the interpretation of Scotland.1 -
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%0 -
IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.Time_to_Leave said:
A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?0 -
Given the fact we (and possible even he) doesn't know how many children he has got that's not surprising.Dura_Ace said:
He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.eek said:
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.0 -
A quick count gave me a net of 8 going to Labour which weren't expect and a lot going to the SNP and others..Andy_JS said:
Correct. It may have been 15.BluerBlue said:
With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.Andy_JS said:It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=00 -
There's no one objectively definable centre, though. Thatcher shifted the centre to the right, and Corbyn is shifting it back.FrancisUrquhart said:
IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.Time_to_Leave said:
A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?0 -
It’s easy to imagine how a photo like that is rigged though, so why should a politician comment unless sure? Just a bad journalist wasn’t it? And the labour thug wacking the innocent Tory aid looked like a red card when I first saw it today, so fair do’s for Laura Kunsburg to call it labour thuggery if she saw it like I did too.Dura_Ace said:
He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.eek said:
I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.0 -
For those saying a hung parliament makes a no deal exit possible, or even likely, can you explain how?
All I see is Brexit being finished if there's a HP.0 -
I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.HYUFD said:
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%0 -
No argument from me. I take the view that absent a few key strategic decisions, there’s generally a “right” answer to most problems, given the overall strategy, which can be proven.FrancisUrquhart said:
IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.Time_to_Leave said:
A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?
That’s also why I hate having politics in local government. There is a right answer to running local services, within the budget constraints given.
0 -
By centre, I mean what he had in the early 2000s, where all 3 parties were pro-business, pro-capitalism, pro-global markets.WhisperingOracle said:
There's no one objectively definable centre, though. Thatcher shifted the centre to the right, and Corbyn is shifting it back.
The difference was really social issues and quite small differences in where to tax and who to benefit.0 -
Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).0 -
Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners (still 60% of the country) will keep voting Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternativeFrancisUrquhart said:
I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.HYUFD said:
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%0 -
One of the big problems on Thursday is going to be how effective the GOTV operations will be working in both darkness and possibly bad weather. That's why the postal votes could be worth much more this election.
There is usually around a 75-80% return of postal and if that is the case any party that is already well ahead in them has a much bigger advantage this time.0 -
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.HYUFD said:
Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners will still vote Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternativeFrancisUrquhart said:
I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.HYUFD said:
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%0 -
Why I agree with you that a Hung Parliament won’t see a no deal, I think it will eventually lead to Brexit. You get a weak Labour led Gvt which then hits a recession despite remaining in the EU. There’s a few years of pain and the Tories then win with a Brexit majority because the public thinks “sod, we might as well”.SunnyJim said:For those saying a hung parliament makes a no deal exit possible, or even likely, can you explain how?
All I see is Brexit being finished if there's a HP.
0 -
McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic0 -
Mentions there labour 6 better today than yougov yesterday. Doesn’t explain why. If anything that with older polling in it should be other way roundHYUFD said:Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
0 -
How many times have we heard that.egg said:
Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).0 -
If you don’t own much and things haven’t gone your way - Corbyn is a sod you vote - as was Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.HYUFD said:
Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners will still vote Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternativeFrancisUrquhart said:
I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.HYUFD said:
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
And we won’t know the outcome until we see the actual polls because those people aren’t on YouGov and won’t have been polled by anyone as they usually don’t vote.0 -
The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.
I did say this...
They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.0 -
How’s tebbits old seat looking?HYUFD said:
It isn't, their vote is more efficient, sweeping Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands while holding seats with smaller majorities in the South.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.HYUFD said:twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
Labour piling up votes in London but only gaining just 2 Tory seats in the capital0 -
This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.1 -
No it's like Alien vs Predator but in this case Brexit vs NHS.FrancisUrquhart said:The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.
I did say this...
They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.
That's what wins it0 -
Labour have been really lucky since 2010. They’ve lost three elections on the trot that we were told were the ones to lose.funkhauser said:
How many times have we heard that.egg said:
Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
0 -
One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.valleyboy said:This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.0 -
Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.egg said:
Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?Andy_JS said:
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
Totally agree and turnout higher thereFrancisUrquhart said:
One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.valleyboy said:This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.1 -
Am I boring you by pointing out its one game at a time not the Cummings takes it all? 😀funkhauser said:
How many times have we heard that.egg said:
Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.HYUFD said:
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since ThatcherFrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).0 -
revolutionary MarxistMexicanpete said:
McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic
0 -
It says everything that half the people on here seem to get polled by the pollsters on a regular occasion. I mean, blimmin' hell, is the world that small?!brokenwheel said:
Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.egg said:
Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?Andy_JS said:
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
Just means those voters made up their minds to vote labour earlier than the rest of the herd?timmo said:
Totally agree and turnout higher thereFrancisUrquhart said:
One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.valleyboy said:This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.0 -
Totally O/T - Cannonball Record was broken a few days ago, 27hrs to go coast to coast...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPZfpS2uEp40 -
I think the Tory supporters in here seem to be overly panicking .
The MRP seems to have gained mythical status but this type of modeling isn’t fool proof . And the fieldwork is over a longish period of time .
Interestingly the two most notable moments of the campaign in terms of gaffes have come right at the end .
On one hand Johnson’s weak point, the NHS versus Corbyns apparent questions of leadership and issues surrounding national security caused by Ashworths comments .
Both are damaging to each party.
For this reason I think the last few days might have shaken things up a bit . How the pieces fall hard to say at this point .
The Tories have a massive advantage because the BP standing down in their seats has put up a firewall with very few opportunities for opposition gains .
It’s very hard to see them not getting a working majority , but I do think that phone clip will play very badly with women voters and might further accentuate the gender gap in the election .
0 -
Nah. If your candidate said put the food bank users down like unwanted dogs you would hear about it.brokenwheel said:
Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.egg said:
Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?Andy_JS said:
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
Alternatevely the Conservatives could simply have given people what they want, instead of telling them no.FrancisUrquhart said:The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.
I did say this...
They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.
And alternatively Labour could have given people Brexit, instead of telling them no.
Because neither of them are giving people what they want, Brexit with Money, no one is getting a majority.0 -
Not just Tories, the Betfair market definitely not confident.nico67 said:I think the Tory supporters in here seem to be overly panicking .
-1 -
I said similar a few days ago.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
Historically voters have grown out of Labour as they got in to their 30s, got married, bought their own home, had children, grandchildren etc.
These are all the drivers of a change of mindset that moves a person on from the naive idealism of youth to the acceptance of reality.
Without giving those in their 20s and 30s a real stake in their society then there is little to stop them saying 'f*ck it' and metaphorically kicking the table over via a Corbyn type government.
Housing affordability really needs to be right at the top of the priority list if the Tories do secure a majority.0 -
Ronald.Mexicanpete said:
McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic0 -
Acquited!Floater said:
revolutionary MarxistMexicanpete said:
McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic0 -
Because if its a hung parliament, then the Conservatives can't be on 339.HYUFD said:How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?
You can't say its hung, then add the seat totals for Labour + SNP from the non-hung result!0 -
Surely he is the current leader of the Conservative Party.El_Capitano said:
Ronald.Mexicanpete said:
McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic0 -
I would love to see constituency phone polls with questions like these, pretty confident they would show almost no one bringing it up.egg said:
Nah. If your candidate said put the food bank users down like unwanted dogs you would hear about it.brokenwheel said:
Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.egg said:
Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?Andy_JS said:
I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.egg said:
It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?HYUFD said:Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.
Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.0 -
Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?0
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I can only see a Conservative majority, as to the number, I haven't got a clue! Good night.0
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The PVs are interesting. Has anyone seen it YouGov makes any assumptions, or even asks people how they voted? I haven’t found a proper analysis of methodology.0
