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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28
NEW YouGov MRP
Comments
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Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date0
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2,803 votes changing hands would have lost the Tories their 14 most marginal seats at GE2017. (14 seats over the 326 winning mark gives a majority of 28).0
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If someone told me in January that the Tories could have any majority by the end of the year, I would have laughed myself silly.0
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Would be very interesting to see the day by day changes.0
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Clear Tory majority but still close enough for both parties to keep campaigning to the end with the possibility of a hung parliament0
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Yeah, it' s a remarkable graphic, there's loads like that.El_Capitano said:That hexagon map on the YouGov seat page is terrible. Ross, Skye & Lochaber is not south of Glasgow North-West even after 10 cans of Tennents.
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We will need to see more polls post Johnson's NHS comments, which according to the focus group I saw, has cut through.
11 million views now, that's a lot of people.
Anyone who saw the Ashworth video, they already know they've been told Corbyn is unfit, he's a danger, etc. It won't move the dial at all.0 -
Biggest Tory majority since 1987.1
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Its the CORBYNISTA swing!0
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Squeaky bum time.0
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F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.0
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I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...
*innocent face*
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East Devon fascinating: IND and CON each on 47%.0
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How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?0
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My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.2 -
I agreed with you and said 20-40, I want it noted!GIN1138 said:I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...
*innocent face*1 -
By 4%, not that close.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Prepare for PB apoplexy.Gallowgate said:F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.
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Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.2 -
Some will say Tories will be panicking unnecessarily at this, but it is right in line with the message that Boris himself has been pushing - that Corbyn and co could still win (albeit in messier fashion than the Tories could win).
Polls have been fine for the Tories 9-10 pt lead, even with a lot of tactical voting and really marginal seats if that is the baseline vote then they will get a majority, either a small one like 28 or really large, depending on luck of the marginals.
So it really does still come down to whether Labour can literally stage a last day surge of even a few more percent, or if the polls themselves are out by that amount still, same as it ever was.
10-40 looks like a solid range of prediction for a Tory majority. They are far enough ahead in polling, with a lot of votes already case, that they will eke over the line.0 -
Lots of very tight results, but a 9% lead will produce a comfortable Conservative lead on the day. Because, that's what a 9% lead on 40% + produces.1
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If people spot any mistakes, please let me know. This is all automated.0
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You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.2 -
Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.0
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Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀2
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Your problem is that it also reminds waverers just how close the far right is to securing a majority.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
And yes, I do think that Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg deserve that soubriquet.2 -
Hastings and Rye remains Conservative by 49% to 43%.0
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It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.0 -
I'd laugh my arse off if he gets punted.Jonathan said:Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀
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And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.1 -
Wash your mouth out.CorrectHorseBattery said:Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.</p>
Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh) is never wrong.1 -
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They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.0 -
Esher & Walton - tossup
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That is a great resource: thank you.FrancisUrquhart said:My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.0 -
Yougov MRP map now out, now all the Tories gains bar Eastbourne and Dagenham and Rainham are forecast to be North of Watford, with Kensington now staying Labour.
The North, the Midlands and Wales thus crucial to any Tory majority and Scotland where the Tories are still holding 8 out of 13 seats.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109?s=200 -
Esher & Walton
Con 46
LD 44
Lab 81 -
The recovery being better for Lab in Remain areas is good news for the Tories. Far more seats at stake in Leave areas. Labour need to have a decent last day swing to retain these.0
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So this does take into account tactical voting then?TheScreamingEagles said:Esher & Walton
Con 46
LD 44
Lab 80 -
https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/1204522931801542669
The Labour Leave voters just can't vote Tory.0 -
The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.
When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.
If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.
As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.
The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?
If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.
But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.
We are fucked.0 -
Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.2
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Labour have made it a culture war for the last 40 years.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.0 -
Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458
Something has started.
Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.0 -
Chingford: Con 47%, Lab 45%.
Lanark: Con 36%, SNP 35%.0 -
I just tried to show Bozo the MRP but he took my phone off me and put it in his pocket.10
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Did not Corbyn not think his late recovery last time was dramatic enough, and he wanted this one to look even more remarkable?0
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Interesting, they seem to think the Greens have got a better chance in Dulwich than Bristol West, if I read that right.0
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I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!0
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Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.0 -
There is significant overlap of the Lab and Con error bars in Uxbridge. Squeaky bum.0
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And there’s no particular reason to expect either this time to be as accurate as last time’s - new electoral conditions make for new variables to allow for.Richard_Nabavi said:Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.
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It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?RobD said:
Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458
Something has started.
Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
I am upping HP to be 55%/45%0 -
Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.1
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I said hold the election on 5th December not 12th. Didn't I say that?Byronic said:
If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.
People are probably pissed off that this (insanely long) election is dragging on so close to Christmas.
I'm a politics nerd and even I'm bored to tears with it.0 -
Betfair let me have a whole three pounds five pence on the Tories in Lanark0
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Esher: Con 46%, LD 44%.
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Wokingham is striking. John Redwood might well be feeling a bit jittery.1
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Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?RobD said:
Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458
Something has started.
Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
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This may be the poll CCHQ wanted - too close for anyone voting Tory to rest on their laurels. They'll be hoping it gets some coverage and compels people to turn out on Thursday.0
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He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.Gallowgate said:
They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.-1 -
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The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
No regional poll has them doing that bad.0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/
Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.0 -
Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.funkhauser said:Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
Do you have no self-awareness?1 -
This is the issue. For those Tories horrified that Corbyn could lead a minority government and unbelieving that people could let it happen. There are those of us who are just as anti Johnson leading any government.kle4 said:
It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
The desire not to let it happen is broadly equal.0 -
This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.funkhauser said:Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early to say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.0 -
Looks like 8 would do it now.RobD said:
Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?RobD said:
Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458
Something has started.
Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
I am upping HP to be 55%/45%0 -
Good riddance . Hopefully IDS and Raab join her .TheScreamingEagles said:3 -
Tories still set clear to win, but with luck, courage and hard work we could just about deny them a blank cheque Brexit.0
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Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.Richard_Nabavi said:Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.
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In a world of possibles, maybes, probables, I'd be interested to know what numbers people put on the break points Tory Govt for these imprecisions in the context of Tory vote share - hung, can't rule out, possible, probable, almost certain. I haven't ventured an opinion because I feel quite cowed by the level of expertise on the subject exhibited on here.0
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Project Fear.Floater said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/
Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.0 -
Wales disappointing for the blues versus recent Wales-wide poll. They must have hopes there for it to be better than forecast.0
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Well I am Jewish so I won’t be lectured by you on morals.Byronic said:
He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.Gallowgate said:
They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
I hate Corbyn but I hate Boris more.3 -
Anyone voting Labour in Esher needs a smack upside the head.3
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Boris needs to get outside Downing Street tomorrow and make a statement assuring the people that the NHS is safe in his hands and that no one should have to be without a bed. He needs to link the Brexit dividend back to the NHS and promise £350 million extra a week from the moment we leave .0
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I note that references to MOE are that it heads to "Hung Territory". Equally on the other side it heads to "Landslide"!0
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The road to hell is paved with good intentions.Gallowgate said:
They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.0 -
Surely 317 Tory seats this time wouldn't be enough with DUP support, aren't they set to lose two?0
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BTW - this might focus peoples minds on the possibility of Corbyn in Downing street
I can retire and ride this out - not everyone can do that0 -
True the direction of travel is up for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458
Something has started.0 -
This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.
And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.
So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.
But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.1 -
It's a shit poll.
But we are still ahead in Lanark!
2 days to go and we will know for sure0 -
Not if you are Jewish.Gallowgate said:
They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....0 -
Come on Con 325 - Tories would be able to pass the WA, but Boris Johnson would not be able to claim to be another Tory PM who won an official majority.0
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4th term in a row? You realise the last 2 terms have hardly been of significant length right?Byronic said:The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.
When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.
If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.
As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.
The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?
If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.
But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.
We are fucked.0 -
He is still better than a mendacious sociopath of a clown. The SNP will keep Jezza in line.funkhauser said:Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
I still predict Con 360+. Are we having a PB NoJam contest?0
