politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The data’s clear: The Tories are retaining more of their GE201
Comments
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Awkward numbers for Labour
"Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"
Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%
Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%
Deltapoll Dec 5-7
#ge2019 #Brexit #NHS0 -
Labour is so fucked if Chesterfield is close.Andy_JS said:
YouGov MRP, Chesterfield:PrinceofTaranto said:Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.
Lab 42%
Con 36%
LD 8%
BRX 9%
Grn 3%
Oth 2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=00 -
Guarantee you they set up the picture. What parent is going to put their kid on the floor?SandyRentool said:
Yeah, that's right - the hospital would have found their son a bed if they had been card-carrying Tories.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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What a weird thing to wonder about. Youve now got me pointlessly wondering why someone is wondering about a hypothetical weird piece of whataboutery that hasnt happened. Must get back to real life.Andy_JS said:I wonder whether some people will defend this alleged punch as an understandable response to Johnson putting a reporter's phone in his (Johnson's) pocket.
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I imagine every day this week will see more money placed. Tomorrow's MRP has the power to change the market significantly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tonnes of money as well. Biggest day so far in terms of betting.Brom said:
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
At lunchtime today we had 18 kids with bronchiolitis stuck in A and E with no children's beds to admit them into. All planned children's theatre admissions are cancelled.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
Adult ambulances were taking 4 hours to unload last week as no beds to admit to. This is life on Opel 4.
I don't think that we had anyone on the floor on a drip though.0 -
I'll be annoyed if this poll isn't interesting after all the hype.Brom said:
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.0 -
If the Tories had any sense, they won't shy away from this. Have some sort of excuse for Boris initial behaviour, but then point to how they have tried to do the right thing and ended up in an adviser being assaulted.0
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When GE books opened the bookies had LibDem Over/Under bets at 5/6 over or under 40.5 seats.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
You have to be joking. Corbyn has been repeatedly doing an Eric Morecambe tribute act with his glasses and a successful dress day for Boris is remembering to zip his fly.Richard_Nabavi said:
But wrong. Corbyn smartened himself up considerably after being told the opinion of the dowager Mrs Cameron. He now looks quite smart enough. Boris is a bit of special case, as always, but he dresses appropriately.noneoftheabove said:
Very good point!alb1on said:
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.1 -
They should be 10-1 or more there IMHO.StuartDickson said:LD drifting in Montgomeryshire:
Con 1/6
LD 4/10 -
Well the last Wales Only poll wasn't that good for Con as it?Brom said:
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.
Has there been much poll ramping/teasing on Twitter about this one?0 -
You seriously think that? Sad.Banterman said:
Guarantee you they set up the picture. What parent is going to put their kid on the floor?SandyRentool said:
Yeah, that's right - the hospital would have found their son a bed if they had been card-carrying Tories.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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I just found out from facebook that I went to the same school as Alexandra Hall Hall. I've made the suggestion on their facebook page of naming a big room after her (the Hall Hall Hall)
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They've got a good case for it being Gotcha journalism though Boris will have to defend his peculiar reaction, but I'd think theyd like to draw a line under it today and move back to Brexit tomorrow. However they certainly won't turn down any Corbynista thuggery to win some votes.FrancisUrquhart said:If the Tories had any sense, they won't shy away from this. Have some sort of excuse for Boris initial behaviour, but then point to how they have tried to do the right thing and ended up in an adviser being assaulted.
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The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.2 -
Not that much from what I've seen. He did the same thing 2 weeks ago and it wasn't the bombshell everyone was expecting so it looks like he's not taken as seriously this time around.GIN1138 said:
Well the last Wales Only poll wasn't that good for Con as it?Brom said:
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.
Has there been much poll ramping/teasing on Twitter about this one?1 -
People dismissed Boris cancelling a couple of events because of security concerns, makes you wonder.0
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I reckon Boris is just a bit tired (and stressed) as he enters the final straight. He’s making one or two unforced errors.
In rugby, this would lead to conceding 3-6 penalty points but still winning the game 35-18, with all the trys on your side.0 -
Unless todays poll is the actual state of play....Casino_Royale said:I reckon Boris is just a bit tired (and stressed) as he enters the final straight. He’s making one or two unforced errors.
In rugby, this would lead to conceding 3-6 penalty points but still winning the game 35-18, with all the trys on your side.0 -
I guess we pick and choose defining moments based on how much they hurt Labour. Very impartial0
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Prim Minister doesn't look at phone some twat shoves in his face.
Major news of the day...
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And another thing. If these people can afford coats, why don't they pay for private medical care instead of sponging on the state?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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The problem for Bozo is that he tried to move back to Brexit during the interview, and respond with the same tedious soundbites, rather than address the issue he was being presented with. Tezzie would have been proud of him.Brom said:
They've got a good case for it being Gotcha journalism though Boris will have to defend his peculiar reaction, but I'd think theyd like to draw a line under it today and move back to Brexit tomorrow. However they certainly won't turn down any Corbynista thuggery to win some votes.FrancisUrquhart said:If the Tories had any sense, they won't shy away from this. Have some sort of excuse for Boris initial behaviour, but then point to how they have tried to do the right thing and ended up in an adviser being assaulted.
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On the face of it, that obviously sounds very bad indeedFoxy said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
At lunchtime today we had 18 kids with bronchitis stuck in A and E with no children's beds to admit them into. All planned children's theatre admissions are cancelled.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
Adult ambulances were taking 4 hours to unload last week as no beds to admit to. This is life on Opel 4.
I don't think that we had anyone on the floor on a drip though.
But can you give us some context:
How many children's beds do you have in the hospital?
How unusual is it to have 18 children with bronchitis needing admission at the same time? or 18 children with any kind of condition needing admission at the same time?
How often are children admitted to other hospitals or adult wards because your hospital is full?
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Makes a change from calling each bad news item for the Tories the defining moment of the campaign, doesn’t itCorrectHorseBattery said:I guess we pick and choose defining moments based on how much they hurt Labour. Very impartial
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I've had same issue with Firefox on Mac, but no problem with Chrome. Could be a browser thing.Philip_Thompson said:
Modssealo0 said:Mods
O/t
Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.
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However you cut it, his predicament is being used as a political tool. Corbyn hysterically waving around the Daily Mirror - three days before a general election with Labour trailing well behind. It's pretty low stuff IMO, and I'd say that if it was a Labour PM confronted with that photo.SandyRentool said:
You seriously think that? Sad.Banterman said:
Guarantee you they set up the picture. What parent is going to put their kid on the floor?SandyRentool said:
Yeah, that's right - the hospital would have found their son a bed if they had been card-carrying Tories.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Aberystwyth Uni has some student accommodation named …. yep, you guessed it. Should ask for a donation, would be the Alexandra Hall Hall Alexandra Hall.TrèsDifficile said:I just found out from facebook that I went to the same school as Alexandra Hall Hall. I've made the suggestion on their facebook page of naming a big room after her (the Hall Hall Hall)
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She's done well. Her approval rating is well ahead of the LD share unlike the other leaders.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
The reason for the reduction in LD share is a Labour squeeze in Lab/Con marginals, - a squeeze that I very much approve of. The reduction in share is nothing to do with Jo.0 -
Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
"According to the results, Labour lose Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Cardiff North, Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, and Alyn & Deeside to the Conservatives, who would also win back Brecon & Radnorshire, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election earlier this year.
Plaid Cymru would lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats."0 -
Definitely a faked up image. I know,, days mum, I'll put sick little Jimmy on the floor rather than my lap.Chris said:
And another thing. If these people can afford coats, why don't they pay for private medical care instead of sponging on the state?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Genius. I hope they go for it.TrèsDifficile said:I just found out from facebook that I went to the same school as Alexandra Hall Hall. I've made the suggestion on their facebook page of naming a big room after her (the Hall Hall Hall)
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Does this mean we will get 52% then?AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
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TouchéRobD said:
Makes a change from calling each bad news item for the Tories the defining moment of the campaign, doesn’t itCorrectHorseBattery said:I guess we pick and choose defining moments based on how much they hurt Labour. Very impartial
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Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:2 -
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/1 -
A nice haul.Andy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
"According to the results, Labour lose Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Cardiff North, Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, and Alyn & Deeside to the Conservatives, who would also win back Brecon & Radnorshire, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election earlier this year.
Plaid Cymru would lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats."0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
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One of my best bets so far is nicking Lab at 3/1 with Coral in Kircaldy - but only a tennerStuartDickson said:Lab shortening in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath:
Lab 8/13
SNP 6/4
Con 14/10 -
Now that's more like it!FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
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That's a shockingly bad poll for LAB!!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
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Now, where did I put my Welsh Tory Surge Klaxon?1
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It's a big jump from activists organising something to Labour paying for taxis.BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Ah so now the truth is emerging.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Westminster Voting Intention (Wales):
LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 37% (+5)
PLC: 10% (-1)
LDM: 6% (-3)
BXP: 5% (-3)
GRN: 1% (=)
Via @YouGov, 6-9 Dec.
Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.0 -
The defining moment of the campaign?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
But, not Ynys Mon?Andy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
"According to the results, Labour lose Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Cardiff North, Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, and Alyn & Deeside to the Conservatives, who would also win back Brecon & Radnorshire, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election earlier this year.
Plaid Cymru would lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats."
Given the way this poll was ramped I half-expected Con Gain Merthyr Tydfil.0 -
This is looking bad1
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For now, it's a choice between scums.BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:5 -
Agreed, the enemy within. We must destroy these extremists. LAB and SNP togetherBluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
People dismissed Boris cancelling a couple of events because of security concerns, makes you wonder.
Kinder, gentler politics.0 -
I am not taking a position on the event, but I fail to see anything odd in the use of WhatsApp. We even use it at my cricket club to sort out teams. It seems to be the default mechanism when anything is organised.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Absolutely right. Organising a protest during an election campaign! Scum is too good a word for them.BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
So my understanding is:
Buffoon drops a bollock re NHS and heartless Tories, Twitter goes in to orgasmic spasm with much anger about the evil tories being revealed for what they are, enraged Labour mob arrives to confront evil Tory visitors (rushed in to limit buffoon's damage) leading to alleged violence against a Tory at said hospital... who could have imagined that might happen with tempers so high?
Both teams doing their best to lose votes then... .0 -
6%(ish) swing since the last GE. Bad.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
It'll be the cover up that gets them.eek said:
It's a big jump from activists organising something to Labour paying for taxis.BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Consistent with about a 12% national lead?Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention (Wales):
LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 37% (+5)
PLC: 10% (-1)
LDM: 6% (-3)
BXP: 5% (-3)
GRN: 1% (=)
Via @YouGov, 6-9 Dec.
Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.0 -
Pretty good trend for the Tories. Given that just after the previous Welsh poll both Yougov's standard poll and the MRP showed an 11% tory lead, if this polling in Wales reflects the national trend they may actually have even more seats in tomorrow's MRP update.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Changes since GE2017:
Lab -8.9%
Con +3.4%
PC -0.4%
LD +1.5%0 -
And yet LDs might win back Ceredigion? Seems unlikely on thatCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Why have you been so quiet on this forum this election?AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
You haven’t posted much.0 -
Good poll.GIN1138 said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
Fingers crossed labour is going to reap the reward for years of neglect in Wales1 -
I’m glad you find demonising people who have lived here for decades hilarious.Ave_it said:
Does this mean we will get 52% then?AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.0 -
Classic Scully! Well Labour can take positives from the fact it's not a complete collapse.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention (Wales):
LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 37% (+5)
PLC: 10% (-1)
LDM: 6% (-3)
BXP: 5% (-3)
GRN: 1% (=)
Via @YouGov, 6-9 Dec.
Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.0 -
Every Wales-only poll is the defining moment of the campaign. If not the century. :-)BluerBlue said:
The defining moment of the campaign?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
PC are slightly down and LDs up a bit, so using uniform swing they would gain Ceredigion.kle4 said:
And yet LDs might win back Ceredigion? Seems unlikely on thatCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
same herePhilip_Thompson said:
Modssealo0 said:Mods
O/t
Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.1 -
I said 9.3% current down to about 6-7%Andy_JS said:
YouGov MRP, Chesterfield:PrinceofTaranto said:Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.
Lab 42%
Con 36%
LD 8%
BRX 9%
Grn 3%
Oth 2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=00 -
Nothing. The accusation is that it wasn't just just a ramble who turned up, it was a protest financially supported by the Labour Party which resulted in an adviser getting lamped. At the moment it is all accusations, and I wait to see the proof.alb1on said:
I am not taking a position on the event, but I fail to see anything odd in the use of WhatsApp. We even use it at my cricket club to sort out teams. It seems to be the default mechanism when anything is organised.FrancisUrquhart said:
However, it is a shit show now. Assaulting an adviser is an absolute no no.0 -
I’ve been exceptionally busy with work and I’ve now come down with the flu.Casino_Royale said:
Why have you been so quiet on this forum this election?AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
You haven’t posted much.0 -
Are you trying to keep me up all night?Nobidexx said:
Pretty good trend for the Tories. Given that just after the previous Welsh poll both Yougov's standard poll and the MRP showed an 11% tory lead, if this polling in Wales reflects the national trend they may actually have even more seats in tomorrow's MRP update.CorrectHorseBattery said:
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Finally had my second LD leaflet. No change of focus from Jo Swinson, 'The PM we deserve' but definitely trying to lure Cons as a list of ex conservative mps with quotes about the party on it.0
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You mean Roger Awan-Scully's poll ramping was actually worth it?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Implied Seats:
LAB: 20 (-8)
CON: 16 (+8)
PLC: 3 (-1)
LDM: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2017. https://t.co/In0evS0Dua0 -
In line with survation!Andy_JS said:Changes since GE2017:
Lab -8.9%
Con +3.4%
PC -0.4%
LD +1.5%0 -
1983 in Wales was Lab 38, Tories 31, Alliance 23 !!
Alliance got 2 seats for their 23% 0 -
I am still getting leaflets jamming up my letterbox...no BS.kle4 said:Finally had my second LD leaflet. No change of focus from Jo Swinson, 'The PM we deserve' but definitely trying to lure Cons as a list of ex conservative mps with quotes about the party on it.
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Things also looking good for the Blues in Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:Implied Seats:
LAB: 20 (-8)
CON: 16 (+8)
PLC: 3 (-1)
LDM: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2017. https://t.co/In0evS0Dua 0 -
If I'm remembering correctly, didn't the previous Welsh barometer show an unexpected shift towards Labour? That would suggest simply that that was a slight outlier, and the position has returned towards how it has been for some weeks.0
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It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
The Tories nearly gaining enough seats for a working majority on Welsh seats alone.1
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You don't still think he said "People of Colour" do you?!AlastairMeeks said:
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said: 0 -
The Sun knows what's what:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10514844/boris-johnson-apologises-to-family-of-boy-4-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor/
NASTY LABOUR Labour activist ‘punched Matt Hancock’s adviser in protest at Leeds Hospital over boy, 4, forced to sleep on floor’0 -
At around 135 days Jane Dodds (Brecon & Radnorshire) will have served the shortest term as an MP for 30 years. (the late Michael Carr served just 45 days as MP in Bootle, 1990).0
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Labour smashing it in Cardiff Central I reckon.0
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Discussed at length on the previous thread. According to some, people who don’t get a British passport despite living here for decades, working, paying taxes, raising families etc, even fighting for this country are “guests”, if they’re lucky “honoured guests” and should not think of this as a stigma.AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
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A
No, he’s moved on to telling people who’ve lived here for decades that this is not their home.isam said:
You don't still think he said "People of Colour" do you?!AlastairMeeks said:
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Here is what I think the reference to WhatsApp messages are....interesting 2 cameras setup. You would think any fisty-cuffs would have been captured then.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/09/hancock-advisor-punched-labour-activist-leeds-hospital-visit/0 -
Mankind's nemesis is tribalism.BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:2 -
Gains in Wales alone could cover the combined losses to the SNP & Lib Dems.RobD said:
Things also looking good for the Blues in Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:Implied Seats:
LAB: 20 (-8)
CON: 16 (+8)
PLC: 3 (-1)
LDM: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2017. https://t.co/In0evS0Dua0 -
Labour`s continual focus on the NHS and their insistence that "The Tories have cronically underfunded it for 9 years!" make me wonder: Is this actually true?
Does anyone know whether NHS spending has risen since 2010? (Inflation adjusted.) I suspect that the claim isn`t true.0 -
Or saying they don't get English irony.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m glad you find demonising people who have lived here for decades hilarious.Ave_it said:
Does this mean we will get 52% then?AlastairMeeks said:The Conservative campaign ends as Vote Leave’s campaign ended: with dogwhistling racism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-eu-migrants-immigration-britain-general-election-a9238941.html
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
You picks your poison. One of them has to win.0 -
If you can bear to read the previous thread.AlastairMeeks said:A
No, he’s moved on to telling people who’ve lived here for decades that this is not their home.isam said:
You don't still think he said "People of Colour" do you?!AlastairMeeks said:
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Just so people can feel safe I have cashed out my Conservative Majority bet (for a profit).
If I had left this bet on it would have been guaranteed to fail like my Con Maj in 2017 and Lab Most seats in 20150
