politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The data’s clear: The Tories are retaining more of their GE201
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It amuses me that Matt Hancock has been sent to the hospital. What’s he going to do? A four year old slept on some coats, presumably because it was more comfy than the chair. It happens. Our society, and in particular our media, are endlessly childish.
There are lots of issues to discuss in the NHS. This isn’t one of them.0 -
Is the Nabavi X now hovering grumpily towards the blue box?Richard_Nabavi said:
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
Edit: I see not.0 -
yes, damned shame they didn't. Combined with main parties not fit to govern. Too many politicians are influenced by froth in the social media bubbles.noneoftheabove said:
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.Richard_Nabavi said:
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.0 -
Whereas Brexit will go smoothly and without a hitch and we should ignore the apocalyptic warnings of the Labour Conservative government because Tories are habitual ... oh, hold on.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.stodge said:
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,0 -
There is rarely anything else worth voting for!kle4 said:People do vote for a hung parliament. I did in 2010, it's just that as ever you are reliant on others to get your way.
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Did I see we're getting the final YouGov/Wales Only poll this afternoon?0
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Mods
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The Gogglebox critique was that she looks like the kind of person that would come over to you when you are standing at the bar at a party and demand that you danceRichard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.1 -
Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
Take Leigh. It's somewhere no one would really expect there to be a Tory pickup this election. They could have taken it had Labour's resources been diverted elsewhere, but Labour have had plenty of time to claw things back.
It may be the case the MRP has ensured fewer seats actually flip this election than normal.0 -
I would have thought that never hearing a word she says could only improve one's opinion of Jo Swinson? Or at least that seems to be the common "the more they hear, the less they like" opinion.stodge said:
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
And as for how she dresses, I do wonder what the effect on the LDs poll status would have been if she showed a bit of cleavage. Yes, joke, honest!
WillS
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Utterly OT, but if anyone backed my Leicester to win without Liverpool/Manchester City bet at 9.5 (Ladbrokes) you could choose to cash that out now. Personally, I'd hold onto it.
I've hedged on Betfair, so green either way.0 -
I have to disagree. The DUP will be eminently bribeable once more once they are reelected. People make the mistake of seeing NI parties (exc Alliance) as conventional political parties when a better analogy is with the Kray and Richardson gangs of the 60s.stodge said:
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,0 -
Haven’t watched the BBC for years. Why on Earth should I pay for it?camel said:
A hypothecated 0.6% increase in income tax base rate would be fairer. The licence fee is both regressive and easily evaded.eek said:
Let's hope it's a means of shifting the BBC to a proper subscription model as forcing the BBC to pay for the Over 75s was a cheap tax trick by Osbourne and should have been called out at the time for what it was.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Back to Boris Johnson and his questions. He's asked about the future of the BBC licence fee and surprises those listening saying he believes the whole idea of funding the BBC through a licence fee should be looked at.
"It is effectively a tax," he says."
So he says looked at. Nothing definitive.
If he wins, let's hope this is the leverage to force BBC to pay for all Over 75s.
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I think that approach would have made a big difference in the south west where I expect they will do badly to historic comparisons. There arent enough realistic target seats in remania to make up for it, although they will generate a lot more winnable seats for the following election there.NorthofStoke said:
yes, damned shame they didn't. Combined with main parties not fit to govern. Too many politicians are influenced by froth in the social media bubbles.noneoftheabove said:
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.Richard_Nabavi said:
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.0 -
Have you tried connecting via Vanilla?sealo0 said:Mods
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Mike
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/
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If I had said that you would have had a point. But I didn't so you are spouting garbage yet again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Whereas Brexit will go smoothly and without a hitch and we should ignore the apocalyptic warnings of the Labour Conservative government because Tories are habitual ... oh, hold on.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.stodge said:
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,0 -
5pm apparentlyGIN1138 said:Did I see we're getting the final YouGov/Wales Only poll this afternoon?
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Apart from usual anguish at being forced to remember that Hancock exists, my first was "oh, finally he can get the help he needs".Time_to_Leave said:It amuses me that Matt Hancock has been sent to the hospital. What’s he going to do? A four year old slept on some coats, presumably because it was more comfy than the chair. It happens. Our society, and in particular our media, are endlessly childish.
There are lots of issues to discuss in the NHS. This isn’t one of them.0 -
I'm not sure that belief in something will have an impact on its accuracy. But have we ever had a situation where the gold standard polling company/method has held onto that status at the subsequent election?brokenwheel said:Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
I want to believe MRP (at least YouGov's last one) but I'm suspicious of my own motivations.
WillS
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I would take anything from AVFC with a very large pinch of salt. He seems to operate the local Tory cheerleading squad.Nobidexx said:
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit doneeek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
Ta.Richard_Tyndall said:
5pm apparentlyGIN1138 said:Did I see we're getting the final YouGov/Wales Only poll this afternoon?
Will there be a shock waiting in the Valleys?
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Her advisers must be useless. Not just slightly useless, totally useless.Richard_Nabavi said:
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.0 -
Me too. Same problem. Same tech.sealo0 said:Mods
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Mike0 -
The whole 'Gold Standard' meme is just trolling isn't it? Most serious gamblers disregard the last result rather than give too much weight to itwills66 said:
I'm not sure that belief in something will have an impact on its accuracy. But have we ever had a situation where the gold standard polling company/method has held onto that status at the subsequent election?brokenwheel said:Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
I want to believe MRP (at least YouGov's last one) but I'm suspicious of my own motivations.
WillS0 -
Polling Day weather:
Arbroath +6 rain
Armagh +5 rain
St Davids +11 rain
Winchester +9 rain0 -
They have pinned their Colours to the Tory Landslide mast.GIN1138 said:One thing at this point in 2017 Survation had the result pretty much spot on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
IMO the current lead prior to Boris being a bastard with the 4 yr olds photo was 9-10
After the photo i think the lead will be 9-100 -
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.3 -
Con go FAV in Ynys Môn:
Con 7/4
PC 15/8
Lab 9/41 -
Just checked and pb on chrome on ipad works for me. Did not test logging in.RobinWiggs said:
Me too. Same problem. Same tech.sealo0 said:Mods
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He is now Sir Ivor Crewe (knighted in 2006) and has been master of University College, Oxford for a number of years.Andy_JS said:
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.speedy2 said:
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.1 -
That result would make the whole election a thoroughly depressing waste of time for all parties. There's nothing for anyone in that outcome.bigjohnowls said:Todays ICM in Electoral Calculus produces
CON 320
LAB 252
LD 15
SNP 41
PC 3
GRN 1
NOM available at 5.1 on Betfair0 -
Someone on Twitter (an impeccable recommendation, I know) says the Wales poll will be out at 5pm.1
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LD shortening in Yeovil:
Con 1/6
LD 5/10 -
Except Arlene...StevenWhaley said:
That result would make the whole election a thoroughly depressing waste of time for all parties. There's nothing for anyone in that outcome.bigjohnowls said:Todays ICM in Electoral Calculus produces
CON 320
LAB 252
LD 15
SNP 41
PC 3
GRN 1
NOM available at 5.1 on Betfair0 -
Guido
Tories have writter to @ElectoralCommUK to complain about US Democratic Socialists of America providing phone banking assistance - an ofference under Section 50 of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 20000 -
There's absolutely nothing wrong with her hair or her appearance. She is useless at her job, but that is entirely unrelated.alb1on said:
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.0 -
It will of course depend on what happens nationally but if the Tories make more than 15 gains it will be among them.Nobidexx said:
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit doneeek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
You[what]Gov?StuartDickson said:Con go FAV in Ynys Môn:
Con 7/4
PC 15/8
Lab 9/4
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SNP drifting in Moray:
Con 17/20
SNP 5/40 -
0
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Laura Kunnesberg
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser0 -
Modssealo0 said:Mods
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I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.0 -
Can this mobile photo In pocket gaff change many votes at this late hour ? Is it on the scale of Gordon Browns bigoted old woman Gaff in 2010?bigjohnowls said:
They have pinned their Colours to the Tory Landslide mast.GIN1138 said:One thing at this point in 2017 Survation had the result pretty much spot on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
IMO the current lead prior to Boris being a bastard with the 4 yr olds photo was 9-10
After the photo i think the lead will be 9-100 -
LD drifting in Montgomeryshire:
Con 1/6
LD 4/10 -
https://twitter.com/Corbynator2_0/status/1204041106343763975BannedinnParis said:
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
bigjohnowls said:
They have pinned their Colours to the Tory Landslide mast.
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
They really haven't! 3% MoE vs ICM's 2%....
Sur Con 42-48, Lab 28-34
ICM Con 40-44, Lab 34-38
Doesn't contradict the overall picture of a 10% gap.
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0
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It depends what kind of hung parliament, but it seems a bit unlikely, given that there appeared to be a majority for Johnson's deal in the old Commons, and a fair number of the odds, ends and nominal Lib Dems opposed to it won't be re-elected. Though I suppose the same may be true of the Labour rebels who supported it. Does anyone know the numbers?noneoftheabove said:
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?Andy_JS said:Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.0 -
I have had major problems with vanilla comments for past few months . Had to set up new account in the end .Philip_Thompson said:
Modssealo0 said:Mods
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Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.0 -
Really? I always take form into account when placing sporting bets.isam said:
The whole 'Gold Standard' meme is just trolling isn't it? Most serious gamblers disregard the last result rather than give too much weight to it
Of course I also rarely come out ahead except by accident :-)
WillS.
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Lab shortening in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath:
Lab 8/13
SNP 6/4
Con 14/10 -
Very good point!alb1on said:
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.1 -
138,126 people voted Labour in Bristol in 2017.bigjohnowls said:
https://twitter.com/Corbynator2_0/status/1204041106343763975BannedinnParis said:
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
Lab shortening in Glasgow North East:
SNP 1/4
Lab 3/10 -
Brown's gaff was his apology. If he had said "did you listen to her - what she said was bigoted' he would have got credit for it.kjohnw1 said:
Can this mobile photo In pocket gaff change many votes at this late hour ? Is it on the scale of Gordon Browns bigoted old woman Gaff in 2010?bigjohnowls said:
They have pinned their Colours to the Tory Landslide mast.GIN1138 said:One thing at this point in 2017 Survation had the result pretty much spot on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
IMO the current lead prior to Boris being a bastard with the 4 yr olds photo was 9-10
After the photo i think the lead will be 9-100 -
Punched? Bloody hell.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser0 -
News story is now LAB thuggeryBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
Vote CON Thur or we will have LAB/SNP Stalinist regime!
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I’ve not been able to get a first for months because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
Modssealo0 said:Mods
O/t
Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.
4 -
Yeah you have to look at the form, but the betting markets often put too much emphasis on it, as that is where the casual punter's money goes. Often it is wise to overlook a bad performance last time outwills66 said:
Really? I always take form into account when placing sporting bets.isam said:
The whole 'Gold Standard' meme is just trolling isn't it? Most serious gamblers disregard the last result rather than give too much weight to it
Of course I also rarely come out ahead except by accident :-)
WillS.
Swim against the tide, in short!0 -
Con drifting in East Lothian:
SNP 4/6
Lab 3/1
Con 7/20 -
The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.0
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JFC.wills66 said:
I would have thought that never hearing a word she says could only improve one's opinion of Jo Swinson? Or at least that seems to be the common "the more they hear, the less they like" opinion.stodge said:
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
And as for how she dresses, I do wonder what the effect on the LDs poll status would have been if she showed a bit of cleavage. Yes, joke, honest!
WillS0 -
72 hour to save the NHS (secretary’s adviser).Ave_it said:
News story is now LAB thuggeryBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
Vote CON Thur or we will have LAB/SNP Stalinist regime!0 -
Flockin' Ell!SandyRentool said:
Brown's gaff was his apology. If he had said "did you listen to her - what she said was bigoted' he would have got credit for it.kjohnw1 said:
Can this mobile photo In pocket gaff change many votes at this late hour ? Is it on the scale of Gordon Browns bigoted old woman Gaff in 2010?bigjohnowls said:
They have pinned their Colours to the Tory Landslide mast.GIN1138 said:One thing at this point in 2017 Survation had the result pretty much spot on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
IMO the current lead prior to Boris being a bastard with the 4 yr olds photo was 9-10
After the photo i think the lead will be 9-100 -
Revoke and Swinson have definitely been the main reasons why LDs going down faster than a 10 bob hookerstodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.0 -
It’s not gone well....
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If the adviser getting punched is on camera, you can forget the poor reaction by Boris, it will all be about the mob.1
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I have the same problem at home, it's a bit of a bore if I'm honest.RobD said:
Have you tried connecting via Vanilla?sealo0 said:Mods
O/t
Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/0 -
Events, dear boy etc.FrancisUrquhart said:If the adviser getting punched is on camera, you can forget the poor reaction by Boris.
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Who is this Swinson everybody is talking about? Is she somebody important?0
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But wrong. Corbyn smartened himself up considerably after being told the opinion of the dowager Mrs Cameron. He now looks quite smart enough. Boris is a bit of special case, as always, but he dresses appropriately.noneoftheabove said:
Very good point!alb1on said:
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.0 -
If this has happened, it will have been.FrancisUrquhart said:If the adviser getting punched is on camera, you can forget the poor reaction by Boris, it will all be about the mob.
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The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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It does also play into the narrative that the some of the cult are really nasty pieces of work e.g. their hounding of Jewish Labour MPs.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Events, dear boy etc.FrancisUrquhart said:If the adviser getting punched is on camera, you can forget the poor reaction by Boris.
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I see the good people of Bish have repelled Bozo's attempt to visit the town.
Doubt it will make much difference, mind.0 -
So if it’s a HP, should Johnson resign?0
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Also condemn behaviour by Labour activist, despicable0
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Standing still secures Corbyns leadership, unhappy though it might be, so theres something in it for him.StevenWhaley said:
That result would make the whole election a thoroughly depressing waste of time for all parties. There's nothing for anyone in that outcome.bigjohnowls said:Todays ICM in Electoral Calculus produces
CON 320
LAB 252
LD 15
SNP 41
PC 3
GRN 1
NOM available at 5.1 on Betfair0 -
I wonder whether some people will defend this alleged punch as an understandable response to Johnson putting a reporter's phone in his (Johnson's) pocket.1
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Takes me back to 2010 and a certain Mr Coaxall {formally of this Parish} appearing all over the news being led away by the Police. ;Andy_JS said:0 -
Yep, this could blow up.Andy_JS said:
Been a great day for the Corbynistas, eh? How to win friends and influence people by shouting at the working classes, then a fracas in an A & E.0 -
In theory something between 315 and 321 seats might lead to it (i.e. not enough tory seats for an outright working majority, but enough with the DUP, basically just like last time), but there are still a few tory MPs opposed to no-deal and likewise a few labour MPs who were in favor of the deal who would likely not have lost their seat in such a scenario (Flint, Onn, Stringer...).Chris said:
It depends what kind of hung parliament, but it seems a bit unlikely, given that there appeared to be a majority for Johnson's deal in the old Commons, and a fair number of the odds, ends and nominal Lib Dems opposed to it won't be re-elected. Though I suppose the same may be true of the Labour rebels who supported it. Does anyone know the numbers?noneoftheabove said:
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?Andy_JS said:Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.
I feel like this would probably lead to the deal being passed, unless the numbers are closer to 315 in which case there would probably be enough tory rebels to rebels to block no deal anyway. Either way I think no-deal is very unlikely.0 -
Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?0
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Well, he's being used, I think that's pretty obvious, don't you?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.0
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How many voted Tory how many would turn up to see Jester??Andy_JS said:
138,126 people voted Labour in Bristol in 2017.bigjohnowls said:
https://twitter.com/Corbynator2_0/status/1204041106343763975BannedinnParis said:
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
Tilda Swinson. Does acting stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Who is this Swinson everybody is talking about? Is she somebody important?
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Its the quiet majority every politician has to worry about e.g. Cameron and Brexit.bigjohnowls said:
How many voted Tory how many would turn up to see Jester??Andy_JS said:
138,126 people voted Labour in Bristol in 2017.bigjohnowls said:
https://twitter.com/Corbynator2_0/status/1204041106343763975BannedinnParis said:
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
Yeah, that's right - the hospital would have found their son a bed if they had been card-carrying Tories.Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Welsh Poll inside knowledge?FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....
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YouGov MRP, Chesterfield:PrinceofTaranto said:Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.
Lab 42%
Con 36%
LD 8%
BRX 9%
Grn 3%
Oth 2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=00 -
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
Well and there was me thinking that the GE had gone all a bit limp and the last 3 days were just people phoning it in.
Instead a tight poll and now phone-gate / lamping a minsters adviser.1 -
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.0 -
Part of the pattern of LDs drifting in leave areas and shortening in remain (esp home counties) seats. They have shortened today in GuildfordStuartDickson said:LD drifting in Montgomeryshire:
Con 1/6
LD 4/1
The PC price looks much better in Ynys Mon. The Tories should have been well placed in this seat, but the sheer stupidity of putting a convicted criminal with no local connection forward as their candidate (Chris Davies) and then having to replace him is not a good look. That the Tories then compounded their error by selecting a replacement (Virginia Crosbie) who is London and Sussex based and had, apparently, never been near the constituency until selection - would defy belief and be met with cries of fix if another party parachuted in such a PPC.Ave_it said:
My money is firmly with PC for this seat.0 -
Yet they are deluded enough to think they hold the high moral groundFrancisUrquhart said:
It does also play into the narrative that the some of the cult are really nasty pieces of work e.g. their hounding of Jewish Labour MPs.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Events, dear boy etc.FrancisUrquhart said:If the adviser getting punched is on camera, you can forget the poor reaction by Boris.
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Tonnes of money as well. Biggest day so far in terms of betting.Brom said:
Thought rather strange. At 1.3, this would have been my expected reaction to the earlier ICM poll but instead it waited a bit.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair on the massive slide now....another bad poll incoming?
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.0 -
Nice to see 87035 feature on the BBC election reporting from Crewe.
https://www.facebook.com/87035rb/
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