The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.
Not many generals leading the charge at that battle.
Although actually the worst casualty rates were among subalterns - 19% compared to 12% in the ranks.
I’m surprised by the number of generals killed. I thought they might have learned more from the American Civil War. Of the 120 generals present at Gettysburg 9 were killed or mortally wounded, eight more seriously wounded.
The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
In 2005 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2010 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
In 2015 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2017 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
Spot a pattern?
If Labour is overstated relative to the Tories in 2019, I claim copyright of Phil's "previous election polling overcorrection hypothesis". i.e. Polling companies tend to correct for errors in the previous election, and are vulnerable to the questionable assumption that the factors causing the errors at the last election will still be relevant at the next one.
At the very least, it's advisable to heed the advice last year from the esteemed Anthony Wells: "For individual polling companies the errors of 2017 are far more straightforward to address than in 2015. For most polling companies it has been a simple matter of dropping the adjustments that went wrong. All the causes of error I listed above have simply been reversed – for example, ICM have dropped their demographic turnout model and gone back to asking people how likely they are to vote, ComRes have done the same. MORI have stopped factoring demographics into their turnout, YouGov aren’t reallocating don’t knows, BMG aren’t currently weighting down groups with lower registration. If you are worried that the specific type of polling error we saw in 2017 could be happening now you shouldn’t be – all the methods that caused the error have been removed. A simplistic view that the polls understated Labour in 2017 and, therefore, Labour are actually doing better than the polls suggest is obviously fallacious."
I do hope that you all bought my tip of Leicester to win the League, tipped at 38 the other week after we beat Arsenal. Now still probably value at 16. It is crazy that Man City is shorter.
Obviously Liverpool is the odds on favourite, and rightly so, but the only team who can catch them is the Foxes, and wouldn't Brendan Rogers love that. If Liverpool falter, then there is only one rival.
Is Johnsonian Conservatism much different to the stuff the SDP is/was proposing? Socially (relatively) conservative, economically liberal? He will have to keep tacking that way if he really does break down Labour's northern "Red Wall".
Nick Timothy (yes, I know) has written several articles in the Telegraph arguing that that is exactly what would happen should the Conservative Party find itself with a majority based on places like Bassetlaw.
It makes complete sense. Should we see differential swing operating in this election then we may very well find Tory majorities shrinking (and a few seats being lost) in London and south-central England, whilst Tory majorities strengthen (and Labour seats fall) in much of the rest of the country outside the university towns and the urban cores. The net result would be to shift the Tory centre of electoral gravity away from the South-East and into the Midlands.
The new Tory party would thus be expected to be more working class, less London-centric and more interested in smaller than larger businesses. A more social democratic platform, leavened with a harder line on law and order and on immigration, is exactly what we should expect.
I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
In 2005 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2010 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
In 2015 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2017 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
That is very interesting.
There is one factor that makes this election uniquely unpredictable, though, and it's that rival groups view it as a different kind of emergency - to keep out Brexit, or to keep out Corbyn. That's why I think there's a chance the result could still be in a bizarrely unpredictable range, from hung parliament to heavy tory majority, even though I think a Tory majority of about 20-25 is most likely at the moment.
A national emergency requires emergency tactical voting, and I'm not sure the pollsters may be able to cope with the wild inconsistencies this sense of urgency may produce.
Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
It’s a sad sign of the coarsening of public discourse that so many public hustings appear to be affected by the bad behaviour that typifies social media.
I suspect by local opposition activists in this case.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
I've just been feeding the latest BMG polling data into Baxter, which came up with a meagre Tory majority of 24. I'm convinced that Baxter has significantly changed his methodology recently since the regular 60-90 seat majorities we were seeing just 6-8 weeks ago are no more and instead we are fed a regular diet of 12-45 seat majorities, very seldom outside these parameters. What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats. Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
It’s a sad sign of the coarsening of public discourse that so many public hustings appear to be affected by the bad behaviour that typifies social media.
I suspect by local opposition activists in this case.
What he was saying may have had something to do with the reaction...
The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
They may be getting a one-sided story if they are asking for more Tory canvassers.
I suspect Tory canvassers are heavily advised not to share any news with anyone other than CCHQ. Avoiding complacency and any type of gloating before Thursday is clearly going to be key for all MPs and activists given the surprises of 2017
I'm in the Canterbury constituency and just received a Labour leaflet - a letter from Tim Walker, the Lib Dem candidate who stood down (though who was replaced), pleading for Remainers to vote for Rosie Duffield against "Vote Leave's" Anna Firth.
Is it wise reinforcing your opponent's leave credentials, and your candidate's hard remain credentials, in a constituency that voted 51% to leave? There is no Brexit Party candidate here.
In the bin.
Your not correct in your assumptions. I’m from Canterbury, (although I now live just outside the constituency) and you conflate the constituency with the local authority. But they are not the same. Brexiteer Herne Bay is in the CCC district but in the Thanet North constituency. The two main settlements in the constituency are Islington-on- Sea Whitstable and the Old City of Canterbury with its 2 universities - both voted remain so Canterbury it is a remain constituency
I do hope that you all bought my tip of Leicester to win the League, tipped at 38 the other week after we beat Arsenal. Now still probably value at 16. It is crazy that Man City is shorter.
Obviously Liverpool is the odds on favourite, and rightly so, but the only team who can catch them is the Foxes, and wouldn't Brendan Rogers love that. If Liverpool falter, then there is only one rival.
It is crazy that City are shorter. But I think 16 is fair value, Liverpool have dropped 2 points all season so far. Leicester will drop more points in the second half of the season - for Liverpool to drop what Leicester drops plus 8 more seems unlikely.
I've just been feeding the latest BMG polling data into Baxter, which came up with a meagre Tory majority of 24. I'm convinced that Baxter has significantly changed his methodology recently since the regular 60-90 seat majorities we were seeing just 6-8 weeks ago are no more and instead we are fed a regular diet of 12-45 seat majorities, very seldom outside these parameters. What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats. Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
I've just been feeding the latest BMG polling data into Baxter, which came up with a meagre Tory majority of 24. I'm convinced that Baxter has significantly changed his methodology recently since the regular 60-90 seat majorities we were seeing just 6-8 weeks ago are no more and instead we are fed a regular diet of 12-45 seat majorities, very seldom outside these parameters. What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats. Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
Just goes to show how outdated the boundaries are if they change the result by such a huge margin.
-So, in real terms, Tories at this given moment in time are no different from 2017 -LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
I have an increasing suspicion that swing back might well reappear in this election with the undecided breaking to Boris rather than Corbyn. I wonder if tonight might be the start of a small but significant swing to the Tories boosting that majority from the 20s to 60+. There are so many vulnerable Labour seats on a modest increase in the swing.
-So, in real terms, Tories at this given moment in time are no different from 2017 -LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
That's change relative to the polls at the same time in the campaign in 2017, not the final result. Pollsters have changed their methodology, so you can't simply say that Labour will only be down 4 points on their previous result, rather than 8.
Re where Labour is now, you can see how it perfectly matches with the increased LD vote.
If the LDs go back to Labour - where they came from in the first place - Labour is back where they started. I think this might happen in the final days.
I am sticking with HP 50%/Tory majority 50%, as the polls this weekend have shown basically no change.
-So, in real terms, Tories at this given moment in time are no different from 2017 -LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
-So, in real terms, Tories at this given moment in time are no different from 2017 -LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
I have never predicted a 60 majority
I am still in the don't know category
My apologies, the 60 majority is what I read from some posters. Just added that in, without clarifying. Sorry
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
It does give feedback on what messages are resonating, so the messages sent out at the national level can be tweaked. To that extent, it is important. But if the message coming back is "we hate your leader", there is bugger all that can be done then. Sorry, Labour.
But in well-fought contests, yes, it is essentially a zero-sum game.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
It makes a small difference in close seats but not much more than that
So my anecdata for the day. We've spent the day at my parents today and we had Labour canvassers on the road and a huge number of Labour campaigners on the green handing out leaflets to anyone who would have them.
This is Enfield Southgate. I'm honestly surprised there was such a huge Labour presence in this seat it should be fairly safe but it looks like we're making a much better fight of it than I expected.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
It makes a small difference in close seats but not much more than that
It affects turnout rather than voting intention, so a lot more important in local elections
-So, in real terms, Tories at this given moment in time are no different from 2017 -LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
Seats like Ashfield, Newcastle under Lyme, Eastbourne etc which all have bigger Tory leads with Yougov MRP than Chingford and Woodford Green.
IDS is also ahead, Dennis Skinner is trailing the Tories in Bolsover
The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
I do hope that you all bought my tip of Leicester to win the League, tipped at 38 the other week after we beat Arsenal. Now still probably value at 16. It is crazy that Man City is shorter.
Obviously Liverpool is the odds on favourite, and rightly so, but the only team who can catch them is the Foxes, and wouldn't Brendan Rogers love that. If Liverpool falter, then there is only one rival.
Or as more cynical supporters say - including a friend who put more than £500k into supporting the fixes before King Power were involved - only another 2 points and we are safe.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
It makes a small difference in close seats but not much more than that
It affects turnout rather than voting intention, so a lot more important in local elections
Yes I would agree it is more important in local elections
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
Agreed. The activist who spoke to my wife on the doorstep (Dewsbury) seemed to think arguing was the best approach when she advised Labour had lost her vote under current leadership and policies. In contrast, the phone calls I've received (MP herself, and from Labour call centre) were perfectly polite over being given the thumbs down.
I do hope that you all bought my tip of Leicester to win the League, tipped at 38 the other week after we beat Arsenal. Now still probably value at 16. It is crazy that Man City is shorter.
Obviously Liverpool is the odds on favourite, and rightly so, but the only team who can catch them is the Foxes, and wouldn't Brendan Rogers love that. If Liverpool falter, then there is only one rival.
Thank you for that tip. It hadn’t occurred to me but was very generous odds.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
"...flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists..." Lol! Margo from The Good Life lives on!
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
So my anecdata for the day. We've spent the day at my parents today and we had Labour canvassers on the road and a huge number of Labour campaigners on the green handing out leaflets to anyone who would have them.
This is Enfield Southgate. I'm honestly surprised there was such a huge Labour presence in this seat it should be fairly safe but it looks like we're making a much better fight of it than I expected.
Perhaps it's just an artefact of there being lots and lots of Labour members available to campaign in London? Do they just chuck them here, there and everywhere as a consequence?
The presence of canvassers doesn't necessarily indicate that a constituency is in play, of course. The only party I've seen campaigning in town is Labour (and the other Mr Rook saw the Labour candidate in the town centre yesterday.) But this is a rock-solid Tory safe seat. The only contest they're fighting here is with the yellows for a distant and useless second place.
So nobody thinks the C4 debate is going to radically change the picture?
I thought Rayner did better than RBL or Burgon in the other debates, and Swinson came over fairly well. Worth noting for the Labour leadership betting , but not likely to alter anyones vote.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
Just sit back and let Worcester Woman (or whoever the swing voter has been identified as this time, Bolsover Brian?) decide for you who your next government will be. You’re just a spectator.
So my anecdata for the day. We've spent the day at my parents today and we had Labour canvassers on the road and a huge number of Labour campaigners on the green handing out leaflets to anyone who would have them.
This is Enfield Southgate. I'm honestly surprised there was such a huge Labour presence in this seat it should be fairly safe but it looks like we're making a much better fight of it than I expected.
Perhaps it's just an artefact of there being lots and lots of Labour members available to campaign in London? Do they just chuck them here, there and everywhere as a consequence?
The presence of canvassers doesn't necessarily indicate that a constituency is in play, of course. The only party I've seen campaigning in town is Labour (and the other Mr Rook saw the Labour candidate in the town centre yesterday.) But this is a rock-solid Tory safe seat. The only contest they're fighting here is with the yellows for a distant and useless second place.
The only canvassing party that I have seen was in completely safe Leicester South for Labour. To an extent it is just a reflection of the size of local parties.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
A bit different as @MikeL rightly called me out for not using the mid-point date of each poll, I was previously using the end date.
On the basis of best Tory/worst Labour, that would be Con 46%, Labour 31%.
i.e. the same as the latest Opinium figures.
A 15% lead, compounded with the effects of differential swing, could deliver a 1997-style landslide for the Tories and might be enough to finally shock Labour back to its senses.
Which is why that won't happen. Too good to be true.
So nobody thinks the C4 debate is going to radically change the picture?
I thought Rayner did better than RBL or Burgon in the other debates, and Swinson came over fairly well. Worth noting for the Labour leadership betting , but not likely to alter anyones vote.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
Bunnco??
The man on the spot! Not seen him post on this GE.
So my anecdata for the day. We've spent the day at my parents today and we had Labour canvassers on the road and a huge number of Labour campaigners on the green handing out leaflets to anyone who would have them.
This is Enfield Southgate. I'm honestly surprised there was such a huge Labour presence in this seat it should be fairly safe but it looks like we're making a much better fight of it than I expected.
Perhaps it's just an artefact of there being lots and lots of Labour members available to campaign in London? Do they just chuck them here, there and everywhere as a consequence?
The presence of canvassers doesn't necessarily indicate that a constituency is in play, of course. The only party I've seen campaigning in town is Labour (and the other Mr Rook saw the Labour candidate in the town centre yesterday.) But this is a rock-solid Tory safe seat. The only contest they're fighting here is with the yellows for a distant and useless second place.
It matters not a jot whether Labour has 10 or 200 warm bodies out on the door-knocker, if they are all hearing "your leader is shite - so no".
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
Bunnco??
Our man on the spot.
He’s kinda funny in that I think he’s generally only in one spot but posts so well you’d think he’s omnipresent.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A xit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
The first question to ask any canvass reporter is on which basis the houses being called at have been chosen. Often the canvasser themselves doesn’t know. Genuinely random every-door canvassing is very rare in these data heavy times.
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
Just sit back and let Worcester Woman (or whoever the swing voter has been identified as this time, Bolsover Brian?) decide for you who your next government will be. You’re just a spectator.
There was an Issac Asimov short story about an election which was decided by picking the most typical voter in the country and just asking them. Saved a lot of time and effort.
So nobody thinks the C4 debate is going to radically change the picture?
I thought Rayner did better than RBL or Burgon in the other debates, and Swinson came over fairly well. Worth noting for the Labour leadership betting , but not likely to alter anyones vote.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
Bunnco??
Your man on the spot. Don’t think he’s been around for a while.
Has anyone got any views on who will get the most votes between the Brexit party and the Greens? A couple of bookies have this as a market and I like to bet on these kind of things but cannot make my mind up (they are both about 5/6)
I may be repeating myself again but I don’t see backing a Tory majority in the 1.3-1.35 box as value.
It might look like it, with hindsight, in four days time but there’s plenty of risk in there.
It’s worth bearing in mind a hung parliament is now rated as about the same chance as Leave / Trump in 2016, and we all know what happened next.
Casino ... as we approach the big day, what is your Nap bet right now, or perhaps you don't have one? Actually, compared with your previous considerable GE betting comments/views, you do seem rather less interested in such aspects this time.
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?
General Elections are won and lost at a national level. Chapping on doors makes bugger all difference, but those doing it feel good about themselves.
The big picture is made up of a lot of little pictures. The wood consists of a lot of individual trees.
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
Just sit back and let Worcester Woman (or whoever the swing voter has been identified as this time, Bolsover Brian?) decide for you who your next government will be. You’re just a spectator.
There was an Issac Asimov short story about an election which was decided by picking the most typical voter in the country and just asking them. Saved a lot of time and effort.
Maybe we can form a government like jury service.
Every two years random members of electoral role picked to serve a government term. PM chosen by straws from amongst them.
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
Just sit back and let Worcester Woman (or whoever the swing voter has been identified as this time, Bolsover Brian?) decide for you who your next government will be. You’re just a spectator.
There was an Issac Asimov short story about an election which was decided by picking the most typical voter in the country and just asking them. Saved a lot of time and effort.
Ah the Single Stochastic Vote system, or a variation of it. I like the system where a single randomly chosen vote in each constituency counts as the golden ticket. Over 650 constituencies it would be very proportional and also retain the constituency link.
Has anyone got any views on who will get the most votes between the Brexit party and the Greens? A couple of bookies have this as a market and I like to bet on these kind of things but cannot make my mind up (they are both about 5/6)
This GE appears to be a nailed-on Tory majority. As far as I can see only two possible factors could lead to a hung parliament:
1. A wholesale cock-up by the pollsters. 2. A very unusual translation of the overall percentages into actual seats.
Point 1. might be driven by incorrect weightings aided by a bit of herding, maybe. Point 2. could result from a combination of Leave/Remain tactical voting, the number of Independent or changed party ex-MPs standing, a few self-destruct MPs (Hastings?)...
But, sadly, from my perspective this feels like wishful thinking
What's your best value constituency bet? Got a whole £10 at 7-1 on the Tories to win Westmorland and Lonsdale.
£2 at (IIRC) 259-1 on gaining Warley.
The Tories' Totnes candidate, Anthony Mangnall, stood in Warley in 2017. He says John Spellar is a very decent chap, well liked in the constituency - not far off being a Tory himself. If Labour lose Warley they have massive problems - Boris will have a level of national appeal that completely , er, trumps local politics.
Has anyone got any views on who will get the most votes between the Brexit party and the Greens? A couple of bookies have this as a market and I like to bet on these kind of things but cannot make my mind up (they are both about 5/6)
FWIW, I've backed Brexit to receive more votes. It always seems to be the case that the Greens receive a lower level of support than is suggested by the polls. Of course the same may prove to be the case for Brexit this time, especially if the big squeeze continues to the very end.
Has anyone got any views on who will get the most votes between the Brexit party and the Greens? A couple of bookies have this as a market and I like to bet on these kind of things but cannot make my mind up (they are both about 5/6)
Logically one would've thought the Brexit Party. They should have a sufficient residual vote (very hardcore Eurosceptics, ex-UKIP voters, Labour Never-Tory Leave voters) to outpoll the Greens with room to spare.
The problem for the Greens is that most of their base and the North London dinner party Marxist-type Labour supporters are so easily interchangeable. Consequently they're even more vulnerable than the Liberal Democrats to being squeezed in seats where Labour is stronger than they are. Which is very nearly all of them, of course.
This GE appears to be a nailed-on Tory majority. As far as I can see only two possible factors could lead to a hung parliament:
1. A wholesale cock-up by the pollsters. 2. A very unusual translation of the overall percentages into actual seats.
Point 1. might be driven by incorrect weightings aided by a bit of herding, maybe. Point 2. could result from a combination of Leave/Remain tactical voting, the number of Independent or changed party ex-MPs standing, a few self-destruct MPs (Hastings?)...
But, sadly, from my perspective this feels like wishful thinking
I think nailed on.
There's an interestingly large amount of money that has been bet on 'not nailed on' though. If is turns out they're misguided there will be a very entertaining reversal.
fwiw I think the pollsters are adjusting in Labour's favour - I think they'll get something like 185 seats. I've placed bets accordingly.
Has anyone got any views on who will get the most votes between the Brexit party and the Greens? A couple of bookies have this as a market and I like to bet on these kind of things but cannot make my mind up (they are both about 5/6)
Logically one would've thought the Brexit Party. They should have a sufficient residual vote (very hardcore Eurosceptics, ex-UKIP voters, Labour Never-Tory Leave voters) to outpoll the Greens with room to spare.
The problem for the Greens is that most of their base and the North London dinner party Marxist-type Labour supporters are so easily interchangeable. Consequently they're even more vulnerable than the Liberal Democrats to being squeezed in seats where Labour is stronger than they are. Which is very nearly all of them, of course.
I would back the Greens, not least because they are standing in many more seats. The Brexit party seems to have disbanded itself over the course of the campaign. I would suspect that the Green vote will be heavily squeezed in marginals, but that is at most 20% of seats. In the other 80% of safe seats it is safe to vote Green.
Comments
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1203752834963066881?s=19
Wont see a Lab surge in last few days though this time.
In 2010 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
In 2015 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2017 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
Spot a pattern?
If Labour is overstated relative to the Tories in 2019, I claim copyright of Phil's "previous election polling overcorrection hypothesis". i.e. Polling companies tend to correct for errors in the previous election, and are vulnerable to the questionable assumption that the factors causing the errors at the last election will still be relevant at the next one.
At the very least, it's advisable to heed the advice last year from the esteemed Anthony Wells:
"For individual polling companies the errors of 2017 are far more straightforward to address than in 2015. For most polling companies it has been a simple matter of dropping the adjustments that went wrong. All the causes of error I listed above have simply been reversed – for example, ICM have dropped their demographic turnout model and gone back to asking people how likely they are to vote, ComRes have done the same. MORI have stopped factoring demographics into their turnout, YouGov aren’t reallocating don’t knows, BMG aren’t currently weighting down groups with lower registration. If you are worried that the specific type of polling error we saw in 2017 could be happening now you shouldn’t be – all the methods that caused the error have been removed. A simplistic view that the polls understated Labour in 2017 and, therefore, Labour are actually doing better than the polls suggest is obviously fallacious."
Obviously Liverpool is the odds on favourite, and rightly so, but the only team who can catch them is the Foxes, and wouldn't Brendan Rogers love that. If Liverpool falter, then there is only one rival.
The new Tory party would thus be expected to be more working class, less London-centric and more interested in smaller than larger businesses. A more social democratic platform, leavened with a harder line on law and order and on immigration, is exactly what we should expect.
There is one factor that makes this election uniquely unpredictable, though, and it's that rival groups view it as a different kind of emergency - to keep out Brexit, or to keep out Corbyn. That's why I think there's a chance the result could still be in a bizarrely unpredictable range, from hung parliament to heavy tory majority, even though I think a Tory majority of about 20-25 is most likely at the moment.
A national emergency requires emergency tactical voting, and I'm not sure the pollsters may be able to cope with the wild inconsistencies this sense of urgency may produce.
I suspect by local opposition activists in this case.
What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats.
Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
It might look like it, with hindsight, in four days time but there’s plenty of risk in there.
It’s worth bearing in mind a hung parliament is now rated as about the same chance as Leave / Trump in 2016, and we all know what happened next.
That’s the Labour Party all over, really, isn’t it?
-LD and Labour fish in different ponds, North/South divide. For all purposes, they could be in an imaginary coalition
So where would a 60+ Tory majority come from? When even IDS is struggling?
If the LDs go back to Labour - where they came from in the first place - Labour is back where they started. I think this might happen in the final days.
I am sticking with HP 50%/Tory majority 50%, as the polls this weekend have shown basically no change.
I am still in the don't know category
Our favourite straw clutcher is back. Have a lovely evening all.
But in well-fought contests, yes, it is essentially a zero-sum game.
That's a whole lot of straws.
This is Enfield Southgate. I'm honestly surprised there was such a huge Labour presence in this seat it should be fairly safe but it looks like we're making a much better fight of it than I expected.
A bit different as @MikeL rightly called me out for not using the mid-point date of each poll, I was previously using the end date.
IDS is also ahead, Dennis Skinner is trailing the Tories in Bolsover
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Bye-bye?
Lol! Margo from The Good Life lives on!
The presence of canvassers doesn't necessarily indicate that a constituency is in play, of course. The only party I've seen campaigning in town is Labour (and the other Mr Rook saw the Labour candidate in the town centre yesterday.) But this is a rock-solid Tory safe seat. The only contest they're fighting here is with the yellows for a distant and useless second place.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
A 15% lead, compounded with the effects of differential swing, could deliver a 1997-style landslide for the Tories and might be enough to finally shock Labour back to its senses.
Which is why that won't happen. Too good to be true.
He’s kinda funny in that I think he’s generally only in one spot but posts so well you’d think he’s omnipresent.
ELBOW weeks run from Monday to Sunday.
Every two years random members of electoral role picked to serve a government term. PM chosen by straws from amongst them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_ballot
1. A wholesale cock-up by the pollsters.
2. A very unusual translation of the overall percentages into actual seats.
Point 1. might be driven by incorrect weightings aided by a bit of herding, maybe.
Point 2. could result from a combination of Leave/Remain tactical voting, the number of Independent or changed party ex-MPs standing, a few self-destruct MPs (Hastings?)...
But, sadly, from my perspective this feels like wishful thinking
Good luck with your bet!
The problem for the Greens is that most of their base and the North London dinner party Marxist-type Labour supporters are so easily interchangeable. Consequently they're even more vulnerable than the Liberal Democrats to being squeezed in seats where Labour is stronger than they are. Which is very nearly all of them, of course.
There's an interestingly large amount of money that has been bet on 'not nailed on' though. If is turns out they're misguided there will be a very entertaining reversal.
fwiw I think the pollsters are adjusting in Labour's favour - I think they'll get something like 185 seats. I've placed bets accordingly.