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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will ther

On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’
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Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
I will admit that the business model evolved over the years, but the shop still has its own hallmark 😉
A 9 point lead for the Tories but with those high scores for the Lib Dems and Greens .
Labour would need to make up 4 points to throw the Tories majority into doubt .
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=20
Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.
I wonder if we ARE seeing a repeat of 2017, but the bit right at the end, when TMay's VI strengthened slightly, and Labour tailed off slightly.
The difference back then was that, before this final movement, the two parties were basically level pegging. Now it is happening with the Tories already 7-9% ahead.
If it is recurring, Boris could exceed my expectations and get a 60+ majority.
I determined some time ago not to watch the debates or QT with the exception of the two Boris v Corbyn ones
I need to keep my sanity and even those two tested it
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311
And then the 10 pm exit poll
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but that may take a point or two off the total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Is there a way to disable it?
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
I would not be surprised if that last week will filter through in favour of Boris in the polls
Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change
The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
Or we get a Corbyn majority on 28% of the vote.
IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.
Have the polls got it right, though?
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
Boris and Corbyn are not in the debate anyway
FFS! Even if the author is British, this is an American stereotype of britishness based on Downton Abbey crossed with Four Weddings.
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
* well probably 95-99%.
Is it wise reinforcing your opponent's leave credentials, and your candidate's hard remain credentials, in a constituency that voted 51% to leave? There is no Brexit Party candidate here.
In the bin.
CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)
*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.
The former MP might be staying up for this.
Said all along a Jester maj of 20+
Lab could not overcome both Corbyn and Brexit unpopularity.
Last hope is tactical voting like never seen before but a single figure Tory Maj is best Non Cons can hope for.
At least we will Leave the EU but the divide will get worse whether we do or not under the most right wing Government of my lifetime imo
Con 42.8 (+0.2)
Lab 33.0 (+0.1)
LD 12.7 (-0.4)
Brex 3.0 (-0.5)
Con lead 9.8 (+0.1)
Although actually the worst casualty rates were among subalterns - 19% compared to 12% in the ranks.
The Tories seem to be helping you in Ashfield :-) .
Edit: No - not seriously.
(Thanks @TheScreamingEagles)