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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will there be a hung parliament?
On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’
Comments
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First.0
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BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !0 -
That image haunts me.0
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4th like Swinson0
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I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.0
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Vote Gauke!1
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Is there any actual proof that a leader visit does boost performance?Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !0 -
Just out of interest are you calmer nowFrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
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Yes. But only if they are the only leader to visit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Is there any actual proof that a leader visit does boost performance?Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !0 -
Personally, with nothing more than general feeling, 41-42% for Tories seem more realistic than the 44-45% and Labour (given how unpopular their leader is) on 32% than 35%.dr_spyn said:0 -
As a Labour supporter if someone offered me the final polls and they showed tonight’s BMG I would take that at this stage given some of the other weekend polls.
A 9 point lead for the Tories but with those high scores for the Lib Dems and Greens .
Labour would need to make up 4 points to throw the Tories majority into doubt .0 -
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just out of interest are you calmer nowFrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.1 -
Sounds like Tories have pulled a wise move again ignoring C4.Scrapheap_as_was said:Sorry to be missing C4...
twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=200 -
That's an excellent poll for the Tories, in context. Even BMG are showing them in firm overall majority terroir.
I wonder if we ARE seeing a repeat of 2017, but the bit right at the end, when TMay's VI strengthened slightly, and Labour tailed off slightly.
The difference back then was that, before this final movement, the two parties were basically level pegging. Now it is happening with the Tories already 7-9% ahead.
If it is recurring, Boris could exceed my expectations and get a 60+ majority.0 -
I am not.Scrapheap_as_was said:Sorry to be missing C4...
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=20
I determined some time ago not to watch the debates or QT with the exception of the two Boris v Corbyn ones
I need to keep my sanity and even those two tested it0 -
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Anyway only 3 days more campaigning to go
And then the 10 pm exit poll0 -
Is anyone watching the debate?0
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Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.0
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BONG!Big_G_NorthWales said:Anyway only 3 days more campaigning to go
And then the 10 pm exit poll0 -
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but that may take a point or two off the total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.0 -
Since neither of them are offering that, what would you learn from it?FrancisUrquhart said:Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.
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Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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Or the Tories, of course...WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes easier as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, and to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to change that.0 -
Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?FrancisUrquhart said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just out of interest are you calmer nowFrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.
Is there a way to disable it?0 -
How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.0 -
Theres a debate on channel 4 tonight?!0
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OMG I had forgotten swingback. A reminder of days so incredibly far removed from us, that there was only one antisemite posting here.FrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
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The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.0 -
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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~0Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.0 -
You should take into account that last week was taken up with Boris dealing with a terrorist attack, Trump and NATO, all of which Boris came out from wellWhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
I would not be surprised if that last week will filter through in favour of Boris in the polls0 -
Surgeons are usually very good at being reassuring. Until you get one who greets you with “hello sir, do you remember teaching me?”ralphmalph said:
Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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Calm down dear. A poster said they suffered with a condition that meant if lots were posted it was very difficult, so I obviously said I would respect that and they said one is fine, just not lots of them.PeterMannion said:
I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?FrancisUrquhart said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just out of interest are you calmer nowFrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.
Is there a way to disable it?0 -
LoLFysics_Teacher said:
Surgeons are usually very good at being reassuring. Until you get one who greets you with “hello sir, do you remember teaching me?”ralphmalph said:
Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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Probably not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying desperately to keep either Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.Byronic said:
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.0 -
I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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Unlike his claims about the Jews, he was correct about swingback.IshmaelZ said:
OMG I had forgotten swingback. A reminder of days so incredibly far removed from us, that there was only one antisemite posting here.FrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
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Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Dataprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change0 -
Now 1.32....oooh i say0
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I think at least 1 of the 3 willFysics_Teacher said:
How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.0 -
Nicola Surgeon?ralphmalph said:
Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.0 -
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!WhisperingOracle said:
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.Byronic said:
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.0 -
I think it hit 1.31 late last night, before drifting back out through today.noisywinter said:Now 1.32....oooh i say
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People are also scrabbling to keep the Tories out,not just Corbyn!0
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When the dust settles I would not be surprised to find the wild and unprecedentedly odd patterns of tactical voting end up canceling themselves out.WhisperingOracle said:
Probably not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.Byronic said:
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Or we get a Corbyn majority on 28% of the vote.0 -
It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.0
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The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.HYUFD said:
Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change0 -
I'm betting it'll show a Labour Majority.FrancisUrquhart said:It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.
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BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.
IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.
Have the polls got it right, though?0 -
The Tories will clearly lose Chingford, for the foreseeable future, quite soon. But Corbyn and Brexit may save IDS this time.Andy_JS said:
The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.HYUFD said:
Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change0 -
Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.1 -
The ones I see aren’t highlights, but complete games with the ads edited out. I’m surprised they are not taken down due to copyright tbh.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.0 -
No, I am doing what normal people do this evening and watching Strictly.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
Boris and Corbyn are not in the debate anyway1 -
now 1.31....surely your relentless pessimism must be relenting a littleFrancisUrquhart said:
I think it hit 1.31 late last night, before drifting back out through today.noisywinter said:Now 1.32....oooh i say
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1.32 has been gobbled up.0
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This is true. Let's see if the British polling industry has got its act together.Byronic said:
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!WhisperingOracle said:
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.Byronic said:
The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.WhisperingOracle said:The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.
However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.
I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.0 -
Ohhhh...the official NFL channel puts up 10 mins highlight packages for each game that are automatically generated, and they appear about 30 mins after the completion of the game.Fysics_Teacher said:
The ones I see aren’t highlights, but complete games with the ads edited out. I’m surprised they are not taken down due to copyright tbh.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.0 -
I think, post-election and whatever the result there needs to be a framework agreed between TV media and the parties. The debates, the people and the parties. It will stop, or at least hinder, the twattery on both sides.FrancisUrquhart said:Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.
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Some game between the 49ers and the Saints, 28 - 27 at half time.0
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I think it will show a bigger Tory majority on a smaller tory lead.FrancisUrquhart said:It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.
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Totally agree. I actually think we should also have yearly QT with them on. That is good for democracy.matt said:
I think, post-election and whatever the result there needs to be a framework agreed between TV media and the parties. The debates, the people and the parties. It will stop, or at least hinder, the twattery on both sides.FrancisUrquhart said:Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.
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Spoilers!FrancisUrquhart said:Some game between the 49ers and the Saints, 28 - 27 at half time.
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At the same time one can disable or avoid the retarded Twitter-scrapers.PeterMannion said:
I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?FrancisUrquhart said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just out of interest are you calmer nowFrancisUrquhart said:I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.
Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.
Is there a way to disable it?0 -
"His plummy voice and silly hair and constant jokes [sic] are deeple, even reassuringly, British..."Andy_JS said:
FFS! Even if the author is British, this is an American stereotype of britishness based on Downton Abbey crossed with Four Weddings.0 -
IDS is a good MP but from my canvassing in Chingford and Woodford Green if his opponent was a LD or Independent he might well have lost on Thursday, fear of Corbyn amongst Tory and LD Remainers will I think see him scrape homeByronic said:
The Tories will clearly lose Chingford, for the foreseeable future, quite soon. But Corbyn and Brexit may save IDS this time.Andy_JS said:
The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.HYUFD said:
Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change0 -
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?NickPalmer said:Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.0 -
How many of the seven hours actually feature live action?FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
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100% *....that is why it is just genius....it is 7hrs of live action, no ads, no waiting for the next play, they just flip between all the games when there is action.Benpointer said:
How many of the seven hours actually feature live action?FrancisUrquhart said:
Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.Fysics_Teacher said:
Do you have to subscribe?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.Fysics_Teacher said:Is anyone watching the debate?
* well probably 95-99%.0 -
I'm in the Canterbury constituency and just received a Labour leaflet - a letter from Tim Walker, the Lib Dem candidate who stood down (though who was replaced), pleading for Remainers to vote for Rosie Duffield against "Vote Leave's" Anna Firth.
Is it wise reinforcing your opponent's leave credentials, and your candidate's hard remain credentials, in a constituency that voted 51% to leave? There is no Brexit Party candidate here.
In the bin.0 -
Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:
CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)
*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m0 -
Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.Byronic said:
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?NickPalmer said:Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.0 -
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.Byronic said:
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.2 -
If the polls are all wrong it must surely mark the end of the polling industry. They might as well do something useful instead, such as planting trees.numbertwelve said:BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.
IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.
Have the polls got it right, though?2 -
Is Johnsonian Conservatism much different to the stuff the SDP is/was proposing? Socially (relatively) conservative, economically liberal? He will have to keep tacking that way if he really does break down Labour's northern "Red Wall".Andy_JS said:0 -
No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.matt said:
Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.Byronic said:
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?NickPalmer said:Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.2 -
Not many generals leading the charge at that battle.Byronic said:
No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.matt said:
Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.Byronic said:
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?NickPalmer said:Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.1 -
Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?NickPalmer said:
It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.Byronic said:
You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?
Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.
https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/
Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.
I have never felt so sorry for you.
But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.0 -
0
-
I think they have Lab anywhere between. 20-40 losses in England and 10 more elsewhere imo.numbertwelve said:BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.
IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.
Have the polls got it right, though?
Said all along a Jester maj of 20+
Lab could not overcome both Corbyn and Brexit unpopularity.
Last hope is tactical voting like never seen before but a single figure Tory Maj is best Non Cons can hope for.
At least we will Leave the EU but the divide will get worse whether we do or not under the most right wing Government of my lifetime imo
0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
** Drum roll **
Preliminary Sunil on Sunday ELBOW data (still awaiting Survation and BMG!): 11 polls with fieldwork end-dates 2nd to 8th December:
Con 43.0 (+0.4)
Lab 33.1 (+0.2)
LD 12.6 (-0.5)
Brex 2.9 (-0.6)
Con lead 9.9 (+0.2)
Adjustment for BMG (comparison with last week's ELBOW):MarqueeMark said:
can we ELBOW it in?Sunil_Prasannan said:
6% lead last week turns into a 9% lead this week...Andy_JS said:BMG:
Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll
Con 42.8 (+0.2)
Lab 33.0 (+0.1)
LD 12.7 (-0.4)
Brex 3.0 (-0.5)
Con lead 9.8 (+0.1)0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25776836Fysics_Teacher said:
Not many generals leading the charge at that battle.Byronic said:No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.
Although actually the worst casualty rates were among subalterns - 19% compared to 12% in the ranks.0 -
Doubt that result.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843
The former MP might be staying up for this.1 -
Nick Timothy (yes, I know) has written several articles in the Telegraph arguing that that is exactly what would happen should the Conservative Party find itself with a majority based on places like Bassetlaw.KentRising said:
Is Johnsonian Conservatism much different to the stuff the SDP is/was proposing? Socially (relatively) conservative, economically liberal? He will have to keep tacking that way if he really does break down Labour's northern "Red Wall".Andy_JS said:0 -
IT IS A SPOOF ACCOUNT.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843
The former MP might be staying up for this.0 -
A net 3.5% better for tories than last time =6.5% tory lead. Hmmmm. Too close for comfort.Big_G_NorthWales said:Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:
CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)
*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m0 -
It’s too early for this, but Labour could have overcome Corbyn unpopularity.bigjohnowls said:
I think they have Lab anywhere between. 20-40 losses in England and 10 more elsewhere imo.numbertwelve said:BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.
IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.
Have the polls got it right, though?
Said all along a Jester maj of 20+
Lab could not overcome both Corbyn and Brexit unpopularity.
Last hope is tactical voting like never seen before but a single figure Tory Maj is best Non Cons can hope for.
At least we will Leave the EU but the divide will get worse whether we do or not under the most right wing Government of my lifetime imo0 -
Thanks Nick.NickPalmer said:Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:
* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.
* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).
* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.
* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.
Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.
The Tories seem to be helping you in Ashfield :-) .0 -
dr_spyn fell for spyn!!TheScreamingEagles said:
IT IS A SPOOF ACCOUNT.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843
The former MP might be staying up for this.0 -
Seriously? That was 80% Labour at the last GE!dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843
The former MP might be staying up for this.
Edit: No - not seriously.
(Thanks @TheScreamingEagles)0 -
That would be assuming the Tory overstatement from last time is repeated....and the pollsters have adjusted their methodologies apparently to try and account for thatnunu2 said:
A net 3.5% better for tories than last time =6.5% tory lead. Hmmmm. Too close for comfort.Big_G_NorthWales said:Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:
CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)
*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m0
