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Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
The one thing that I still find difficult to understand is the pollsters using the 2016 EU ref 52 to 48 to help weight the results .
No poll anywhere on a second EU ref question for the last 18 months has shown a lead for the Leave side , there’s been one tie and the rest have shown varying leads for Remain .
So if your sample is weighted to that 52/48 then aren’t you already skewing the sample ?0 -
He's also one of the most Remainer-y Tory MPs left. Either of the other two Barnet seats would have made more sense from a stopping Brexit point of view. Berger is, sadly, the worst kind of political opportunist.Philip_Thompson said:
I'd have no objection to Berger winning but I don't understand why she chose to run in a blue rather than a red seat. The person she's trying to unseat has done nothing wrong.Cyclefree said:
The irony is that in that constituency Luciana Berger is standing, one person who really deserves to be in Parliament. My brother lives in that constituency and he’s voting for her.Byronic said:
"Save us from that man". Wow.MarqueeMark said:
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.Byronic said:This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.0 -
Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.0 -
Well then you cannot condemn people for supporting Corbyn despite everything because beating the Tories is “all that matters to them now”.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Can you not see your hypocrisy?0 -
Now there is a mental image I could have done without...kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.0 -
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
Some of the social democracies that the left likes to laud have a higher billionaire to population ratio than we do.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's a good thing right, 150 of them is a lot of money pumped into the UK economy...I have a funny feeling that isn't weirdo Jezza's outlook. A man who won't go down a street because it is too capitalist.Andy_JS said:Just switched on the Radio 4 news to hear Jeremy Corbyn talking about the "150 billionaires in Britain". Does anyone else find that sort of talk a bit sinister?
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RedZone for me.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
We have found a viewer - congratulations. Please keep the reports coming so we can all avoid it.ralphmalph said:Instant leftie on leftie action in the debate, this could get very nasty.
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Wait until you see the headline I've got planned for the exit poll thread.ydoethur said:
Now there is a mental image I could have done without...kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.0 -
Johnson blows it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until you see the headline I've got planned for the exit poll thread.ydoethur said:
Now there is a mental image I could have done without...kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.0 -
Midnight Sunday (GMT) was 18 hrs ago. He means midnight Monday. Grr (grits teeth)GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
It is a free country and many will support Corbyn but many supporting labour this time are not supporting Corbyn ironicallyGallowgate said:
Well then you cannot condemn people for supporting Corbyn despite everything because beating the Tories is “all that matters to them now”.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right bkjohnw1 said:Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Can you not see your hypocrisy?0 -
Just wait until "Stu" takes off. It'll be unstoppable, like a rocket!kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.
0 -
You think there might be a final, final Survation poll for Survation?TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1203237711831805953
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I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
Well that's one option if Boris Johnson fails to win a majority.ydoethur said:
Johnson blows it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until you see the headline I've got planned for the exit poll thread.ydoethur said:
Now there is a mental image I could have done without...kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.
The one that requires a lot of mind bleach is if Johnson wins a landslide.0 -
BMG poll.
9 point lead for the Tories .2 -
Not if you're asking them what they voted in 2016. The issues are (i) false recall,(ii) what to do about the 18-20 year-olds and (iii) the sensitive issue of the 'no longer with us'.nico67 said:The one thing that I still find difficult to understand is the pollsters using the 2016 EU ref 52 to 48 to help weight the results .
No poll anywhere on a second EU ref question for the last 18 months has shown a lead for the Leave side , there’s been one tie and the rest have shown varying leads for Remain .
So if your sample is weighted to that 52/48 then aren’t you already skewing the sample ?1 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
God there's nothing worse than a privately educated person pretending to be similar to a person educated at a comprehensive.
Daisy Ridley has been criticised over comments about her upbringing.
The Star Wars actress, who attended boarding school, was asked whether privileged aspects of her life has helped her confidence and deal with her celebrity status.
She replied: "The privilege I have - how? No, genuinely, how?"
In her Guardian interview, she said she did not believe it has benefited her in those ways and compared herself to her co-star John Boyega, who grew up in London as the son of Nigerian immigrants.
"John grew up on a council estate in Peckham and I think me and him are similar enough that… no," she said.
https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/star-wars-daisy-ridley-criticised-for-questioning-role-of-privilege-in-her-life-1335769
And that has to do with Star Wars how?0 -
Riiiight...I don’t want to know, actually...TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's one option if Boris Johnson fails to win a majority.ydoethur said:
Johnson blows it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until you see the headline I've got planned for the exit poll thread.ydoethur said:
Now there is a mental image I could have done without...kinabalu said:Donald Fart. Yes, very good.
"Hillary won the popular vote but because the Rust Belt went Fart, albeit by the finest of margins, it's Fart on his way to the White House."
That could not have been reported, thus it could not have happened. Names do matter.
"Johnson gets Pidcocked yet again at PMQs"
There's something that DOES work.
The one that requires a lot of mind bleach is if Johnson wins a landslide.0 -
When a highly partisan poster says their side is going to do much better than expected it's always entertaining but not worth much. The truth is no-one knows what's going to happen, except the opinion polls within a margin of error.0
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It isn't additional its an alternative. She could have taken a stand against an antisemite, instead she's standing against a Brexiteer. Fine then vote for her if you want to take out a Brexiteer, not if you want to deal with antisemitism.Gallowgate said:
Nah. One less pro-Brexit and pro-Boris MP is an additional benefit.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't view that as wrong, but on the subject of antisemitism is what I mean. She should have stood against someone who was condoning it.Gallowgate said:
Apart from supporting Brexit and Boris Johnson you mean?Philip_Thompson said:
I'd have no objection to Berger winning but I don't understand why she chose to run in a blue rather than a red seat. The person she's trying to unseat has done nothing wrong.Cyclefree said:
The irony is that in that constituency Luciana Berger is standing, one person who really deserves to be in Parliament. My brother lives in that constituency and he’s voting for her.Byronic said:
"Save us from that man". Wow.MarqueeMark said:
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.Byronic said:This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
You do realise Luciana is not a Tory?0 -
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+1.nico67 said:The one thing that I still find difficult to understand is the pollsters using the 2016 EU ref 52 to 48 to help weight the results .
No poll anywhere on a second EU ref question for the last 18 months has shown a lead for the Leave side , there’s been one tie and the rest have shown varying leads for Remain .
So if your sample is weighted to that 52/48 then aren’t you already skewing the sample ?
1.6m over 65s (who voted 75% Leave) will have died since June 2016.
2.7m people new voters have reached 18 since June 2016 (under 24s voted 64% Remain).
I cannot see why pollsters aren't making some attempt to take that into account with their weightings.0 -
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I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .0 -
I’m not expecting a majority of more than 60 tbh. 400 would be far too much!BluerBlue said:
How narrow is narrow? I'll be totally happy with a small majority that allows us to govern for 5 years, say 335 or so. Obviously I'd like 400, but I'm not mad enough to think we'll get it.Mysticrose said:By the way, for the record I think the Conservatives are going to win a narrow majority. But that's exactly what it will be. Narrow.
All this talk of big victories and 60 seats+ etc is absolute nonsense. It bears literally no relation to the ground game.
2015. 2016. 2017. I correctly called them all & made money.
Hubris.0 -
How much did the Lib Dems stop the Tories from doing what they wanted in 2010-2015?Benpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.
So little that barely four years later few refer to it as the coalition era and now talk of 9 years of continuous Tory rule.0 -
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Which website are you seeing it on?nico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .0 -
Do you know the conservative / labour figuresnico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .0 -
On the basis of the BMG I'm hitting up Tory majority.0
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if it is there to squeeze and it is squeezable...nico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .0 -
Yeah no need for a majority of 400Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not expecting a majority of more than 60 tbh. 400 would be far too much!BluerBlue said:
How narrow is narrow? I'll be totally happy with a small majority that allows us to govern for 5 years, say 335 or so. Obviously I'd like 400, but I'm not mad enough to think we'll get it.Mysticrose said:By the way, for the record I think the Conservatives are going to win a narrow majority. But that's exactly what it will be. Narrow.
All this talk of big victories and 60 seats+ etc is absolute nonsense. It bears literally no relation to the ground game.
2015. 2016. 2017. I correctly called them all & made money.
Hubris.
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The young will stick with greens I believe.nico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .
Because they are genuinely scared about their future on this planet, and thinking is the most important issue.0 -
@kinabalu
what more data do you need?
My Mum was a teacher who married young
My Dad left school at 17 and worked in the family shop
My mum’s dad was an academic
My dad’s dad was the oldest of 5 who had to grow up fast as his dad died in a workplace incident when he was just 9/10. Fortunately he was good with numbers and made enough money gambling to supplement his salary0 -
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Oh, thank you.ydoethur said:0 -
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
That would be a seat tally of 523.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah no need for a majority of 400Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not expecting a majority of more than 60 tbh. 400 would be far too much!BluerBlue said:
How narrow is narrow? I'll be totally happy with a small majority that allows us to govern for 5 years, say 335 or so. Obviously I'd like 400, but I'm not mad enough to think we'll get it.Mysticrose said:By the way, for the record I think the Conservatives are going to win a narrow majority. But that's exactly what it will be. Narrow.
All this talk of big victories and 60 seats+ etc is absolute nonsense. It bears literally no relation to the ground game.
2015. 2016. 2017. I correctly called them all & made money.
Hubris.
The National Government managed 556 in 1931, but that was officially a coalition.
I’m not seeing that level of swing...0 -
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
Wow, you can still her 1.15 on SNP under 50.5 seats on Betfair.
Strong buy recommendation from me there.
It would be close to impossible for them to get 51+ seats.1 -
That's not who it is?Charles said:
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
Charles, it has to be said though, the ‘family shop’ wasn’t exactly a tobacconist in the East End, was it?Charles said:@kinabalu
what more data do you need?
My Mum was a teacher who married young
My Dad left school at 17 and worked in the family shop
My mum’s dad was an academic
My dad’s dad was the oldest of 5 who had to grow up fast as his dad died in a workplace incident when he was just 9/10. Fortunately he was good with numbers and made enough money gambling to supplement his salary0 -
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-labour-prevent-tory-majority-tactical-voting-a9238096.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1575831159GIN1138 said:
Which website are you seeing it on?nico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day .1 -
ditto...Charles said:
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059531 -
Corbyn anywhere near government, his allotment yes 100%Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
I worked for Mother Merrill for many yearsviewcode said:0 -
Good Morning BritainLuckyguy1983 said:
That's not who it is?Charles said:
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
It's realHaroldO said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-labour-prevent-tory-majority-tactical-voting-a9238096.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1575831159GIN1138 said:
Which website are you seeing it on?nico67 said:
I can’t link as on iPad .GIN1138 said:
What I would say though they have pretty high scores for the Green Party on 4 and the Lib Dems on 14 compared to some other polls.
So good for the Tories in terms of the lead but there’s more there for Labour to squeeze on the day . 1 -
39 looked way too low for the Tories. 43-34 is probably close to where we are at (don’t actually know the BMG numbers). So ICM are 7 points is the smallest lead but all pollsters pointing to a Tory majority.0
-
Woke AND funny - see?
https://twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/1203640165660577793?s=200 -
BMG:
Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll2 -
BMG
Tory 41 (+2)
Lab 32 (-1)
Lib Dem 14 (+1)
Green 4 (-1)
BP 4 (NC)1 -
I would understand that... if the alternative weren't an unfettered Liar Boris in charge.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Corbyn anywhere near government, his allotment yes 100%Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
Thanks Andy.Andy_JS said:BMG:
Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll
Will be interesting to see the MRP on Tuesday now.0 -
Mike Freer is a peoples vote remainer. F&GG doesn't actually have a leave candidateGallowgate said:
Apart from supporting Brexit and Boris Johnson you mean?Philip_Thompson said:
I'd have no objection to Berger winning but I don't understand why she chose to run in a blue rather than a red seat. The person she's trying to unseat has done nothing wrong.Cyclefree said:
The irony is that in that constituency Luciana Berger is standing, one person who really deserves to be in Parliament. My brother lives in that constituency and he’s voting for her.Byronic said:
"Save us from that man". Wow.MarqueeMark said:
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.Byronic said:This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.0 -
Good morning Britain I think (piers morgan and the delectable holly)Luckyguy1983 said:
That's not who it is?Charles said:
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
When it's YouGov, they still have on record for people what their vote was at the time. And false recall is pretty low for EUref vote anywaynico67 said:The one thing that I still find difficult to understand is the pollsters using the 2016 EU ref 52 to 48 to help weight the results .
No poll anywhere on a second EU ref question for the last 18 months has shown a lead for the Leave side , there’s been one tie and the rest have shown varying leads for Remain .
So if your sample is weighted to that 52/48 then aren’t you already skewing the sample ?0 -
Tories into 1.33
Think thats the shortest its been0 -
a goldsmiths doing piecework and the occasion commission?ydoethur said:
Charles, it has to be said though, the ‘family shop’ wasn’t exactly a tobacconist in the East End, was it?Charles said:@kinabalu
what more data do you need?
My Mum was a teacher who married young
My Dad left school at 17 and worked in the family shop
My mum’s dad was an academic
My dad’s dad was the oldest of 5 who had to grow up fast as his dad died in a workplace incident when he was just 9/10. Fortunately he was good with numbers and made enough money gambling to supplement his salary0 -
-
Yebbut... what about the people who have joined (or left) the electorate?Freggles said:
When it's YouGov, they still have on record for people what their vote was at the time. And false recall is pretty low for EUref vote anywaynico67 said:The one thing that I still find difficult to understand is the pollsters using the 2016 EU ref 52 to 48 to help weight the results .
No poll anywhere on a second EU ref question for the last 18 months has shown a lead for the Leave side , there’s been one tie and the rest have shown varying leads for Remain .
So if your sample is weighted to that 52/48 then aren’t you already skewing the sample ?0 -
The BMG seems more plausible than last week with its Tory vote share .
The Lib Dems will be happy to see that 14% number .0 -
By far the biggest lie this campaign has been told by Corbyn.Benpointer said:
I would understand that... if the alternative weren't an unfettered Liar Boris in charge.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Corbyn anywhere near government, his allotment yes 100%Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.1 -
Not that much.ranier said:Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Around here, Tories are notorious for not putting up posters in contrast to Labour. The main impact is that, if a party is winning the "poster war" hands down you can guarantee that it will be one of those in the mix come election night. So posters can be very useful in establishing that your party is in contention and by implication that it should be the recipient of any tactical votes going. It was very important here in the 1980s and 1990s prior to the seat being generally recognised as a Labour-Tory marginal come 1997.
So in Stroud it could make a difference in helping to send a message to potential Greens (and to the Lib Dems who aren't standing) that Labour is making a big push in the hope that they will get on board, but I don't think a single Tory will change their vote as a result of seeing loads of Labour posters.0 -
So not the family bank then?Charles said:
a goldsmiths doing piecework and the occasion commission?ydoethur said:
Charles, it has to be said though, the ‘family shop’ wasn’t exactly a tobacconist in the East End, was it?Charles said:@kinabalu
what more data do you need?
My Mum was a teacher who married young
My Dad left school at 17 and worked in the family shop
My mum’s dad was an academic
My dad’s dad was the oldest of 5 who had to grow up fast as his dad died in a workplace incident when he was just 9/10. Fortunately he was good with numbers and made enough money gambling to supplement his salary
I stand corrected.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !0 -
Thanks, and Ben Pointer. Could have also referred to record label and game developer BMG.Charles said:
Good morning Britain I think (piers morgan and the delectable holly)Luckyguy1983 said:
That's not who it is?Charles said:
Every time you post it I assume it’s for the GMB Union!TheScreamingEagles said:
The final Survation poll for GMB.GIN1138 said:Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/12032377118318059530 -
6% lead last week turns into a 9% lead this week...Andy_JS said:BMG:
Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll0 -
Still three days of campaigning though.....ydoethur said:
That would be a seat tally of 523.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah no need for a majority of 400Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not expecting a majority of more than 60 tbh. 400 would be far too much!BluerBlue said:
How narrow is narrow? I'll be totally happy with a small majority that allows us to govern for 5 years, say 335 or so. Obviously I'd like 400, but I'm not mad enough to think we'll get it.Mysticrose said:By the way, for the record I think the Conservatives are going to win a narrow majority. But that's exactly what it will be. Narrow.
All this talk of big victories and 60 seats+ etc is absolute nonsense. It bears literally no relation to the ground game.
2015. 2016. 2017. I correctly called them all & made money.
Hubris.
The National Government managed 556 in 1931, but that was officially a coalition.
I’m not seeing that level of swing...0 -
Angela Raynor on the debate "We are being ripped off by energy companies owned by foreign states." Labour doing their bit to improve international relations.0
-
Donald Trump's paternal grandmother was born Elizabeth Christ.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not sure I know MY paternal grandmother’s maiden name, let alone Trump’s.Henrietta said:
But using his paternal grandmother's maiden name instead might make people think he had, well, some kind of syndrome.Fysics_Teacher said:
Actually I think Trump would have found it difficult to have been taken seriously as a British politician because his name is a synonym for fart.kinabalu said:
We will rise above that Trumpiness, thank you very much.BluerBlue said:There's just one problem with your favoured candidate. They do invite the most devastating, unforgettable nickname in British political history:
Stu.
This is England.
0 -
Yougov MRP had the Tories 9% ahead in Chingford, less than the 11% they were ahead nationally.Ave_it said:BMG 9% lead is ok
Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.
Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !
Daraprix has the Tories 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally0 -
-
For the record Enfield Southgate had more Tory than Labour posters when I was delivering there todayWulfrun_Phil said:
Not that much.ranier said:Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Around here, Tories are notorious for not putting up posters in contrast to Labour. The main impact is that, if a party is winning the "poster war" hands down you can guarantee that it will be one of those in the mix come election night. So posters can be very useful in establishing that your party is in contention and by implication that it should be the recipient of any tactical votes going. It was very important here in the 1980s and 1990s prior to the seat being generally recognised as a Labour-Tory marginal come 1997.
So in Stroud it could make a difference in helping to send a message to potential Greens (and to the Lib Dems who aren't standing) that Labour is making a big push in the hope that they will get on board, but I don't think a single Tory will change their vote as a result of seeing loads of Labour posters.0 -
Well, the SNP, quite reasonably given their platform, couldn't give a shiney shite what happens to the English and Welsh. So I'd be reluctant to rely on them curbing Corbyn. And Corbyn and McDonnell have a history of friendships with people who don't exactly follow democratic norms. Relying on them playing by the rules seems a little unwise.Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
can we ELBOW it in?Sunil_Prasannan said:
6% lead last week turns into a 9% lead this week...Andy_JS said:BMG:
Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll0 -
Quite significant that, coming from the only polling company that up to this poll had the Tories on <40%.dr_spyn said:0 -
Which part of the statement is untrue if any?ralphmalph said:Angela Raynor on the debate "We are being ripped off by energy companies owned by foreign states." Labour doing their bit to improve international relations.
0 -
😮Henrietta said:
Donald Trump's paternal grandmother was born Elizabeth Christ.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not sure I know MY paternal grandmother’s maiden name, let alone Trump’s.Henrietta said:
But using his paternal grandmother's maiden name instead might make people think he had, well, some kind of syndrome.Fysics_Teacher said:
Actually I think Trump would have found it difficult to have been taken seriously as a British politician because his name is a synonym for fart.kinabalu said:
We will rise above that Trumpiness, thank you very much.BluerBlue said:There's just one problem with your favoured candidate. They do invite the most devastating, unforgettable nickname in British political history:
Stu.
This is England.0 -
I appreciate I'm not going to convince you (or anyone else probably) but my reasoning in response to your two points is as follows:Cookie said:
Well, the SNP, quite reasonably given their platform, couldn't give a shiney shite what happens to the English and Welsh. So I'd be reluctant to rely on them curbing Corbyn. And Corbyn and McDonnell have a history of friendships with people who don't exactly follow democratic norms. Relying on them playing by the rules seems a little unwise.Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.
1. If the SNP don't care about the rest of the UK why do they oppose Brexit?
2. Re playing by the rules. Fortunately, as we have seen when Boris tried to bypass democracy earlier, the Supreme Court is quite willing and able to enforce the law.0 -
It would suit the SNP for Corbyn to use Scottish votes for English laws as would increase English support for independence.Cookie said:
Well, the SNP, quite reasonably given their platform, couldn't give a shiney shite what happens to the English and Welsh. So I'd be reluctant to rely on them curbing Corbyn. And Corbyn and McDonnell have a history of friendships with people who don't exactly follow democratic norms. Relying on them playing by the rules seems a little unwise.Benpointer said:
Chance what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not willing to chance it BenBenpointer said:
The only way Corbyn could be PM is by relying on the tacit support of the SNP and LibDems. So he wouldn't be able to implement his more extreme policies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree Tyson but when it comes down to it beating Corbyn is all that matters to me nowtyson said:
It's easy to be magnaminous when you win....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have cautioned against any gloating if Boris wins but a degree of humility and understanding that many will feel on the other side. We all need to come togetherCookie said:
You'll get no gloating from me if the Tories win. Most people here on all sides of the argument are nice and while I would be personally hugely relieved if Corbyn and McDonnell kept out of Downing Street I would take no pleasure in the disappointment of the many excellent people here on the left if that were the case.Andy_JS said:
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.stodge said:
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.kjohnw1 said:
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I really don't want Corbyn to be PM- there is no chance of that. But I do not want Boris and Brexit- 2 things Big_G you have said that you didn't want aswell
Nothing much to fear there Big_G.0 -
Where it can also be useful is in comparing the number the same party has up in one election with another. FWIW Labour has about the same number up here as in 2017 but fewer up than in 2015. However, I also know that we (and I was then a part of "we" unlike now) didn't make a particularly intensive effort with poster sites in 2017.HYUFD said:
For the record Enfield Southgate had more Tory than Labour posters when I was delivering there todayWulfrun_Phil said:
Not that much.ranier said:Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Around here, Tories are notorious for not putting up posters in contrast to Labour. The main impact is that, if a party is winning the "poster war" hands down you can guarantee that it will be one of those in the mix come election night. So posters can be very useful in establishing that your party is in contention and by implication that it should be the recipient of any tactical votes going. It was very important here in the 1980s and 1990s prior to the seat being generally recognised as a Labour-Tory marginal come 1997.
So in Stroud it could make a difference in helping to send a message to potential Greens (and to the Lib Dems who aren't standing) that Labour is making a big push in the hope that they will get on board, but I don't think a single Tory will change their vote as a result of seeing loads of Labour posters.1 -
Maybe we'll have two or more this time?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
IDS getting ousted would be a proper Portillo moment, and we haven't had one for ages.Pulpstar said:Iain Duncan Smith is particularly loathed by anyone who isn't a conservative so I can see more tactical voting against him than average. Will be close I think as Chingford is trending left iirc.
0 -
Imagine that sentence 20 years ago.Philip_Thompson said:Any polls?
I feel like that South Park Tweek gif.
I concur.Alistair said:Wow, you can still her 1.15 on SNP under 50.5 seats on Betfair.
Strong buy recommendation from me there.
It would be close to impossible for them to get 51+ seats.0
