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  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,217

    Stocky said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    They may have come to the end of the rope with this. My guess is they will focus on trust to try to discredit Johnson. I do wonder whether some lurid story may be revealed late in the campaign.
    How much would commitment to reducing the interest on current student loans to 0% cost?
    Almost nothing; it just ticks down the expected write-off rate a few percentage points, and means the really high earners pay less for their degrees. Still leaves a large number of graduates with debts around £40-60k that they'll never payoff, but at least they'd see the debt reduce each year.

    Of course, if inflation gets high enough, it'd go in a flash. That would be very expensive.
  • I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    Saving it for Monday
    They may well do, but even they have to be afraid that another gigantic uncosted bung may tip them right over the edge of electoral credibility. They are already suffering badly from the voters' contempt and anger, so trying to take them for even bigger fools could backfire.
  • Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
  • Alistair said:

    I've just heard the BBC report that Sturgeon thinks the Scottish people should determine whether there is another Indyref, rather than Westminister. Isn't that a referendum to decide whether to have a referendum? The only way out of that is to have another referendum.

    Any referendum can only be considered after Holyrood 2021

    That Holyrood election will provide a mandate or otherwise to request a referendum and HMG will need to consider it carefully

    It is interesting to note that in the latest Scots opinion poll SNP = 39% Pro Union = 60%

    Food for thought there
    Why 2021, why not 2016 when pro indy parties got a majority.
    There was a poll in 2014 which was lost

    2021 will be the earliest and only if the SNP win Holyrood
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Be real?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    Yeah but it makes for some fun rough and tumble too, right?!

    Within limits, yes. If only there were a way of enforcing them. Electric shocks, I'm thinking, but I can't think of a safe and practical way to deliver them.
  • Chris said:

    I am considering placing a small wager on a Tory majority. (Betfair Exchange, 1.34-1.35.)

    Can anyone come up with any cogent arguments against that?

    I think there are better value bets elsewhere.

    It's not a dead-cert, even though in hindsight it might look like it was always one by Friday morning.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2019

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
    "How is the top score 18?" is the question bugging me. Are we meant to include Grandparents education?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    Barnesian said:

    It's a really good wager unless the Tories don't get a majority.

    Your model :smile:

    I'm rooting for it.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
  • Dear Boris Johnson voters,

    Tomorrow I would like you to go to your workplace and do the following
    - call all single mothers 'ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate.
    - Muslim women "letterboxes" and "bank robbers"
    - Gay men "bumboys.
    - Black people " piccaninnies"
    - Voting Conservative will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3.

    Now any workplace would fire you on the spot. If its unacceptable to use this language at work why is it OK for it to be used in politics???


    Is it acceptable for a political party to be referred to the Equality & Human Rights Commission due to serious allegations of racism, the only other party that has managed that is the BNP.


    No it isn't.

    Now I've answered your question can you go to your workplace tomorrow and call your gay colleague "a bumboy" , a single mother "illegitimate", a Muslim " a lettebox" and let me know tomorrow evening what the response was.

    If you can't do it, why are you a coward?
    Have you chosen your safe space for election night yet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Control will be with whomever we elect.
    We elect?? Then why has brexit not done yet??
  • Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    BluerBlue said:

    Dear Boris Johnson voters,

    Tomorrow I would like you to go to your workplace and do the following
    - call all single mothers 'ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate.
    - Muslim women "letterboxes" and "bank robbers"
    - Gay men "bumboys.
    - Black people " piccaninnies"
    - Voting Conservative will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3.

    Now any workplace would fire you on the spot. If its unacceptable to use this language at work why is it OK for it to be used in politics???


    Is it acceptable for a political party to be referred to the Equality & Human Rights Commission due to serious allegations of racism, the only other party that has managed that is the BNP.


    No it isn't.

    Now I've answered your question can you go to your workplace tomorrow and call your gay colleague "a bumboy" , a single mother "illegitimate", a Muslim " a lettebox" and let me know tomorrow evening what the response was.

    If you can't do it, why are you a coward?
    Have you chosen your safe space for election night yet?
    Hopefully it isn't here. :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited December 2019

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    I am considering placing a small wager on a Tory majority. (Betfair Exchange, 1.34-1.35.)

    Can anyone come up with any cogent arguments against that?

    You'd need to wager a fairly large amount to actually win anything useful, which increases the risk quite significantly.

    I'd say your better off guessing how big the majority will be and bet on the Tories winning those target seats.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,217

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Wait, what? Didn't we conclusively prove last time that no-one cares about that?

    Hence their relative absence from the current campaign. To be honest I'm utterly shocked that anti-semitism allegations seem to be cutting through more than active support for an organisation responsible for terrorist acts in the UK within living memory.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Dear Boris Johnson voters,

    Tomorrow I would like you to go to your workplace and do the following
    - call all single mothers 'ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate.
    - Muslim women "letterboxes" and "bank robbers"
    - Gay men "bumboys.
    - Black people " piccaninnies"
    - Voting Conservative will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3.

    Now any workplace would fire you on the spot. If its unacceptable to use this language at work why is it OK for it to be used in politics???


    Is it acceptable for a political party to be referred to the Equality & Human Rights Commission due to serious allegations of racism, the only other party that has managed that is the BNP.


    No it isn't.

    Now I've answered your question can you go to your workplace tomorrow and call your gay colleague "a bumboy" , a single mother "illegitimate", a Muslim " a lettebox" and let me know tomorrow evening what the response was.

    If you can't do it, why are you a coward?
    It used to be fun, now it's getting boring. Can you please change your rant.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    In the future I think it will be called "The Corbyn Election."
  • glwglw Posts: 7,935
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    They may have come to the end of the rope with this. My guess is they will focus on trust to try to discredit Johnson. I do wonder whether some lurid story may be revealed late in the campaign.
    How much would commitment to reducing the interest on current student loans to 0% cost?
    To be honest - you won`t like this - the interest rate is largely irrelevant. It is a designed to be a graduate tax which expires after 30 years. Best not thought of as a loan. You`d need to be earning ten times average earnings or something to repay prior to 30 years. See calc on moneysavingexpert.

    I recently heard one suggestion to lower the rate of interest but extend the term from 30 to 40 years. This would be worse.
    The student loans are honestly one of the worst marketed bits of government policy ever. It is effectively a graduate tax, and has perhaps the most generous terms people will ever get for a loan. What it needs is tweaking to make sure that the people who pay the most are the higher earners, and that the rates are not too far above RPI.

    Unless you intend to simply give all students grants, and how fair would that be, you are not going to come up with something much better than the current loan system.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Control will be with whomever we elect.
    We need a bit more educating. Then we can have another referendum. If we vote to leave again then further educating will be required.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Chris said:

    melcf said:

    Dear Boris Johnson voters,

    Tomorrow I would like you to go to your workplace and do the following
    - call all single mothers 'ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate.
    - Muslim women "letterboxes" and "bank robbers"
    - Gay men "bumboys.
    - Black people " piccaninnies"
    - Voting Conservative will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3.

    Now any workplace would fire you on the spot. If its unacceptable to use this language at work why is it OK for it to be used in politics???

    You really are angry aren't you. Did you forget your medication? Just trying to be helpful.
    Just go to your workplace and use the same language Boris uses to describe people and let me know what the response was. I dare you to cal a Muslim at a work a letterbox. I dare you to call a single mother 'ill raised, illegitimate' or a gay guy a bumboy.

    Your voting for him to do a job and this is the language he uses so use it.
    Bojo was fired from two jobs, for lying. Even his one time best mate, David Cameroon called him a greased piglet
    "The greased piglet manages to slip through other people's hands where mere mortals fail," the ex-PM tells an audience.
    My God. Knowing about David Cameron's porcine predilections ("Gettin' Jiggy wid a Piggy") one would have hoped that he would never use the words "piglet" and "greased" in the same sentence again. Has the man no shame?
    That's the Tories for you
  • Re: Labour leadership. If Corbyn resigns immediately aren't both the leadership and deputy leadership vacant? Can John McDonnell simply take over by acclamation? Is it an NEC decision? Does the PLP have any say?

    The stories about McDonnell taking over seem to just assume that Corbyn can annoint him - or have I missed something?
  • RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    I (for one) welcome an obvious member of the Labour front bench posting on here...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,200
    edited December 2019

    America and Murdoch will watching the election very closely - Johnson\Corbyn could be Trump\Sanders in November 2020.

    Only difference is that the sanders progressive wing have an active media voice that holds Trump to account and won't tolerate lies (trump has a lie tracker over 15000). The UK press across print, radio and television have been utterly shameless in their bias at getting Johnson elected. The BBC needs a massive clear out.. To many diehard Tories in senior positions.

    I'm sure there are a great deal number of Conservatives who feel the opposite and feel the BBC has a strong anti Tory bias.

    It is all personal perspective.
    The BBC nowadays seems to have a cultural bias slightly in favour of certain identity politics issues, and a politico-economic bias slightly in favour of the centre-right. All very odd.
    Agreed, too many middle managers with nothing to do so end up enforcing conformity.
    Ironically the pre-Birt BBC, which Thatcher and the supposed freedom-loving buccaneers of the 80s hated so much, would never had had so much imposed by managerial diktat. The simplistlcally favourable approach to anything to do with modern identity issues, for instance, and the creeping bias towards the centre-right on economo-political issues, are both functions of the BBC's present managerialism.

    To a certain extent, the 1980s BBC was a fascinatingly unpredictable, inefficient place, with far too many patrician and also artsy/left mavericks producing interesting things to carry such uniform views, and often working together.
  • These were the halycon days for Labour - a bit like Man U's under Fergie....

    ie surprisingly long time ago and no sign of returning just yet.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2019
    Regarding class, I dont think you can really change what you are brought up in. When Del Boy won the lottery, he was still working class, and if Prince Andrew is stripped of all his titles, made to wash cars for minimum wage and live in a bedsit, he still isn't
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    isam said:

    Isn't the top score 17?

    Who is Rayner? Claire darling? Jay?

    We are talking about Jess Phillips

    No it's 18. (3x1) + (3x2) + (3x3).

    Oh, Jess, right. I've been talking about Angela Rayner!

    She's 11. Dunno about Jess. Bit higher, I sense, but I haven't done her.

    What did you make of me guessing that you are a 9?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Byronic said:
    They really aren't ready for what's coming. Labour in the north and Midlands are trying to catch a falling salt pillar
  • murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that an mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be future our PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divide country together? Seriously?
    The problem is that it's never clear if that's Corbyn or Johnson who is being referred to when such a description is made on here?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
    You think every Brit wants to be thought of as posh? Not sure I agree with that, the reverse is just as possible, self made man and all that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    edited December 2019
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Isn't the top score 17?

    Who is Rayner? Claire darling? Jay?

    We are talking about Jess Phillips

    No it's 18. (3x1) + (3x2) + (3x3).

    Oh, Jess, right. I've been talking about Angela Rayner!

    She's 11. Dunno about Jess. Bit higher, I sense, but I haven't done her.

    What did you make of me guessing that you are a 9?
    There are only two categories for grandparents though
  • Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    glw said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    They may have come to the end of the rope with this. My guess is they will focus on trust to try to discredit Johnson. I do wonder whether some lurid story may be revealed late in the campaign.
    How much would commitment to reducing the interest on current student loans to 0% cost?
    To be honest - you won`t like this - the interest rate is largely irrelevant. It is a designed to be a graduate tax which expires after 30 years. Best not thought of as a loan. You`d need to be earning ten times average earnings or something to repay prior to 30 years. See calc on moneysavingexpert.

    I recently heard one suggestion to lower the rate of interest but extend the term from 30 to 40 years. This would be worse.
    The student loans are honestly one of the worst marketed bits of government policy ever. It is effectively a graduate tax, and has perhaps the most generous terms people will ever get for a loan. What it needs is tweaking to make sure that the people who pay the most are the higher earners, and that the rates are not too far above RPI.

    Unless you intend to simply give all students grants, and how fair would that be, you are not going to come up with something much better than the current loan system.
    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    As you say, it is a graduate tax -, which has the effect of increasing the income tax rate to >£25k earnings 29% (from 20%), the higher rate tax to 49% (from 40%) and the additional rate tax to 54% (from 45%). This income tax loading stops after 30 years and any residual debt is written off (hence the interest rate is irrelevant) and is extinguished on death.

    It is not a loan, was badly marketed and the LDs were unfairly criticised over it.
  • Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

  • murali_s said:

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?

    Quick answer - no!

    You truly happy that an anti-semitic, messianic, economically illiterate buffoon is the only alternative our likely future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think he could bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
  • On the final Brexit deal, it's pretty clear where the realpolitik and national interest should drive us and there is a good degree of overlap with EU interests here, despite the strong rhetoric and differing political objectives.

    Goods. We will want a very closely aligned deal in goods, with zero tariffs and quotas. They will want the same. We will follow EU goods standards. And, in future, we will input into these informally like Norway.

    Services. We will pretty much want full independence in services, particularly financial services. There's no point in leaving the EU and contracting out regulation on this to Brussels given how crucial it is to our economy. We had trouble enough on this when we were a member. Yes, it will increase non-tariff barriers with the EU in intra-services trade. However, given how dominant and global our services sector is, this shouldn't be a problem. I know my company has already successfully prioritised into Canada, the US and Australia.

    Immigration. We will have a multi-tiered approach to immigration for high-skilled and low-skilled workers, based on permits and points. In practice, this won't affect EU migrants who really want to come here to work too much. It will mean we have control, and levers, however.

    We will pay and contribute to Eramus and EU science projects. This isn't controversial.

    On agriculture, we will follow EU physio-sanitary standards, but will quit CAP and adopt our own green approach to our ecology, including farming subsidies and payments. On fish, possibly the hardest sector to agree, we will need something rather similar to what we have now, but with a blue extended ecological marine zone around the UK.

    On foreign policy and defence, we will have very close bilateral relations with the EU, but outside its structures. This will be proportional, pragmatic and non-contentious, and done through new relationships with EU institutions as well as NATO.

    The above will be sweetened with a decent chunk of annual payments into the EU budget, but nothing like as high as what we pay now.

    I think most people here could live with that. But, Boris does need a big majority to do it to avoid the spoilers and lunatics wrecking it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713

    Chris said:

    I am considering placing a small wager on a Tory majority. (Betfair Exchange, 1.34-1.35.)

    Can anyone come up with any cogent arguments against that?

    I think there are better value bets elsewhere.

    It's not a dead-cert, even though in hindsight it might look like it was always one by Friday morning.
    I suppose what I'm really asking is whether anyone can make a cogent argument that the probability of the Tories not getting a majority is now more than 25%.

    It doesn't look like it to me.
  • Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    With the increased use of social media and micro-targeted adverts, I'd be surprised if CCHQ is not sending the IRA and Jewish stuff to appropriate recipients, while Labour does likewise with Boris's unfortunate past statements. Unless you are a Black Jewish Muslim whose granny suffers dementia and whose daughter needs a school place near the hospital in a marginal constituency, you will not see all the messages.

    I'm not at all sure this below-the-radar campaigning is good for democracy but we are where we are. For one thing, if Jo Swinson does not even know what Plaid Cymru says about her, she can hardly refute it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    BluerBlue said:

    I would say simply upper-middle class. Upper class in my mind requires titles, or at least major landholding and a far greater love of shooting and riding to hounds than I have interest in...

    OK but you're bringing things into it that my model does not recognize.

    Still, "upper middle" is fine for a 16.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    Stocky said:

    Mr Woolie is a veritable sage

    Inter alia.
  • Byronic said:
    They really aren't ready for what's coming. Labour in the north and Midlands are trying to catch a falling salt pillar
    ... with their face :open_mouth:
  • glwglw Posts: 7,935
    Stocky said:

    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    I thought the very highest earners could repay in full early and therefore pay less in total than some of those who earn a little less.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589

    Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    Crikey, next you`ll be saying he lied to the queen!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!
    Of the three, Johnson by a country mile.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
    "How is the top score 18?" is the question bugging me. Are we meant to include Grandparents education?
    I understood it as rate education, occupation & finances (as one) 1, 2 or 3 for each of the three generations, then multiply the score for grandparents by 1, for parents by 2, and for self by 3.

    So if (like @Charles is bound to) you score all three generations as '3' points your overall score is 3x1 + 3x2 + 3x3, so 18 in total.

    Mine was 1x1 + 1x2 + 2x3 (let down by education), so 9 overall.

    When I consider my grandparents and my own situation scale of 1 to 3 for education, occupation & finances is not enough imo. 1 to 5 required at least.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    If the polls keep with a 10% gap I expect it to be 1.1 before the exit poll is released.

    If it does that I will be closing out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why does that question matter? His unsuitability for the job would exist even if he had no children, or 15 . It distracts from his political unsuitability.
    We know the corrupt media...bbc, Amy news, LBC and the billionaire tax avoiding press baron hitmen would be asking a labour politician this question without hesitation.

    Any smear the whole Tory press core run with it.

    Don't you see the corrupt media everywhere..
    Sophie ridge is supposed to be interviewing Boris Johnson and her corrupt Tory soul just can't help itself by having a laugh and giggle.
    Who in the BBC decided to have a life long Tory member Nick Robinson moderate the debate on Friday?
    Who in the BBC decided to have a diehard Tory Unionist Laura to follow and interview Boris Johnson???

    The new online progressive media is right..dark money is destroying our democracy and people across media are not holding Boris Johnson to account.
    Can you give a specific example of bias in Robinson's moderation on Friday?
    Lol seriously..how many times did nick Robinson repeat Boris johnson s talking point with direct questioning forcing corbyn to answer. I read on twitter nick asked corbyn 9 time smears Johnson made and called corbyn out twice on falsehoods. Robinson only questioned Johnson three times and didn't call out any falsehoods.

    Yet Boris Johnson repeatedly lied and nick robinson did nothing
    Johnson said there will be 50k nurses..not true
    Johnson said we will get brexit done if elected..not true the law was passed and nobody was stopping that law from passed he chose an election.
    Johnson said there will be 20000 more police again not true.
    Johnson said there would be 40_new hospitals again not true.

    Its an absolute scandal that we have press core that is not holding Boris to account
    At this point you are lying

    I listened to the debate

    Boris said that there will be 50000 more nurses AND then said “I need to unpack that number a bit” and explicitly explained it was 19+31k
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Isn't the top score 17?

    Who is Rayner? Claire darling? Jay?

    We are talking about Jess Phillips

    No it's 18. (3x1) + (3x2) + (3x3).

    Oh, Jess, right. I've been talking about Angela Rayner!

    She's 11. Dunno about Jess. Bit higher, I sense, but I haven't done her.

    What did you make of me guessing that you are a 9?
    There are only two categories for grandparents though
    That's a typo, methinks - but yes that is what confused me, at first.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!
    Stop shouting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why does that question matter? His unsuitability for the job would exist even if he had no children, or 15 . It distracts from his political unsuitability.
    We know the corrupt media...bbc, Amy news, LBC and the billionaire tax avoiding press baron hitmen would be asking a labour politician this question without hesitation.

    Any smear the whole Tory press core run with it.

    Don't you see the corrupt media everywhere..
    Sophie ridge is supposed to be interviewing Boris Johnson and her corrupt Tory soul just can't help itself by having a laugh and giggle.
    Who in the BBC decided to have a life long Tory member Nick Robinson moderate the debate on Friday?
    Who in the BBC decided to have a diehard Tory Unionist Laura to follow and interview Boris Johnson???

    The new online progressive media is right..dark money is destroying our democracy and people across media are not holding Boris Johnson to account.
    Can you give a specific example of bias in Robinson's moderation on Friday?
    Lol seriously..how many times did nick Robinson repeat Boris johnson s talking point with direct questioning forcing corbyn to answer. I read on twitter nick asked corbyn 9 time smears Johnson made and called corbyn out twice on falsehoods. Robinson only questioned Johnson three times and didn't call out any falsehoods.

    Yet Boris Johnson repeatedly lied and nick robinson did nothing
    Johnson said there will be 50k nurses..not true
    Johnson said we will get brexit done if elected..not true the law was passed and nobody was stopping that law from passed he chose an election.
    Johnson said there will be 20000 more police again not true.
    Johnson said there would be 40_new hospitals again not true.

    Its an absolute scandal that we have press core that is not holding Boris to account
    At this point you are lying

    I listened to the debate

    Boris said that there will be 50000 more nurses AND then said “I need to unpack that number a bit” and explicitly explained it was 19+31k
    Go easy on her, Charles. She didn't watch it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    And when Boris made that claim, he got a rare round of applause. It must have some cut-through.
  • Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    The bottom line is that the electorate is being asked to make an invidious choice, but will go for the bloke they believe does not actively hate the UK. Labour can blame the media for the fact that people believe this of Corbyn - or they can look at what Corbyn has said and done for the last 40 years, the causes he has supported and the people he has chosen to share platforms and march with.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,217

    Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    You can't divide people by any of those things. People are prime - they divide only by themselves, and one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    I am an 11.

    Same as Angela Rayner and 1 point below me!

    What's Jess Phillips, though, I wonder. This is apparently the main point of the exercise.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    edited December 2019
    The last pre election Sunday's are out of course. Fair to say there are not likely to be any 'revelations' that could now sway voting intention much and any major giveaways announced will look and feel utterly desperate. Whatever the die says, it's pretty much cast now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited December 2019

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    Do we know if Crosby / Textor are on Team Tory this time around? One of the biggest mistakes I remember from 2017 was May not wanting anything to do with the team that boasted about having incredibly detailed info on pretty much every voter and were used so effectively in 2015.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,040
    edited December 2019
    i will be sad once the election period is over.

    Presumably the locking up of the likes of Francois and Bridgen will come to an end and we'll have to put with their puffery once more.

    Talking of which, what news of the wingnut in chief, Chris Williamson, is he nailed on to represent his Venezuelan constituency of Derby North?
  • When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    edited December 2019
    glw said:

    Stocky said:

    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    I thought the very highest earners could repay in full early and therefore pay less in total than some of those who earn a little less.
    Anyone can repay early of they like - though you would be pretty crazy to want to do that for a few reasons, including:
    - what if you repay and then find that you earn less than the minimum per annum (currently £25k)
    - what if you die?
    - what if an future government (Corbyn?) wipes out debt after you have repaid yours?

    In each of these examples you would be kicking yourself because you have repaid a "loan" needlessly.
  • Stocky said:

    glw said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    They may have come to the end of the rope with this. My guess is they will focus on trust to try to discredit Johnson. I do wonder whether some lurid story may be revealed late in the campaign.
    How much would commitment to reducing the interest on current student loans to 0% cost?
    To be honest - you won`t like this - the interest rate is largely irrelevant. It is a designed to be a graduate tax which expires after 30 years. Best not thought of as a loan. You`d need to be earning ten times average earnings or something to repay prior to 30 years. See calc on moneysavingexpert.

    I recently heard one suggestion to lower the rate of interest but extend the term from 30 to 40 years. This would be worse.
    The student loans are honestly one of the worst marketed bits of government policy ever. It is effectively a graduate tax, and has perhaps the most generous terms people will ever get for a loan. What it needs is tweaking to make sure that the people who pay the most are the higher earners, and that the rates are not too far above RPI.

    Unless you intend to simply give all students grants, and how fair would that be, you are not going to come up with something much better than the current loan system.
    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    As you say, it is a graduate tax -, which has the effect of increasing the income tax rate to >£25k earnings 29% (from 20%), the higher rate tax to 49% (from 40%) and the additional rate tax to 54% (from 45%). This income tax loading stops after 30 years and any residual debt is written off (hence the interest rate is irrelevant) and is extinguished on death.

    It is not a loan, was badly marketed and the LDs were unfairly criticised over it.
    It is not really a tax either. It is an income-contingent loan. It is not badly marketed but fundamentally ill-conceived thanks to George Osborne's meddling (and blocking an actual tax). Politically it is damn stupid because even if a graduate will never repay the loan, it is still a loan. They still have the debt hanging over them.

    Funny thing is that income-contingent loans probably do make more sense in other areas but maybe they are poisonous now. Start-up support, for young thrusting entrepreneurs, for instance, or tiding industries through bad periods.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    The saddest part, of all this media savagery towards Corbyn, is that the working classes have been brainwashed against him. This is the man who can lift them out from the mess they are in at the moment. They rather believe in a false, lying Etonian Prophet and his oven ready Brexit. Who, in reality, doesnt even think of them as ....hu...n
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,475



    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    As I said in 2017, having millions of views doesn't count for much. On Facebook you can easily get into the hundreds of thousands of views for less than the price of a second hand car.

    What matters is whether or not the message resonates with the target audience and creates a conversation or encourages them to share it. So called "organic" social media is far, far, far more powerful than paid.

    You can shove an ad in front of ten million people and if they all think it is crap you have wasted your money. The Tory ads of 2017 were, without exception, crap. The "stop them arguing" that's been on YouTube is quite good. But I'm yet to see anyone share it or even mention it (execpt on here).

    One thing I have noticed this time round is far, far, far fewer people sharing Labour and Momentum posts on social media. It feels like just the hardcore activists now, whereas in 2017 people I've known for years who I'd never seen express an interest in politics were sharing Corbyn stuff.

    Ultimately I don't think any of the main candidates enthuse this time around. It's the "just get it done so we can get on with our lives" election, which means Boris will probably win. His message resonates. Even if it doesn't enthuse.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    Do you work for Facebook?

    :smile:

    Or I could pitch it as a cheap and cheerful CH5 alternative to the Beeb's "Who Do You Think You Are?"
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    🤣
  • RattersRatters Posts: 245
    A key issue Labour has is that the Brexit party is standing in their Northern/Midland seats. That gives disillusioned supporters a way to not vote for them without going the whole way to supporting the Tories. And there's no meaningful Lib Dem vote to squeeze to offset this in those seats.

    My suspicion is that this means the Tories can win a significant number off Labour without gaining a single new voter.

    On the flip side, I expect seats like Reading East in the south will be retained by Labour due to anti-Tory voting amongst Remainers.

    On balance I think the combination of these factors points to a modest Tory majority, with some surprising results in the mix.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    melcf said:

    Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    The saddest part, of all this media savagery towards Corbyn, is that the working classes have been brainwashed against him. This is the man who can lift them out from the mess they are in at the moment. They rather believe in a false, lying Etonian Prophet and his oven ready Brexit. Who, in reality, doesnt even think of them as ....hu...n
    Lift the working classes? Have you read the Labour manifesto? It's stuffed to the rafters with middle-class bribes, the most egregious of which is university education.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    melcf said:

    Bottom line is a third of the UK population sponsors a corrupt media. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are bigots and the media defend their bigotry and hate to make money.
    Corrupt special interests are fueling their campaigns for one reason - profit.

    Murdoch makes millions of dollars in profit fueling hate and bigotry and Boris Johnson voters pay money to continue this hate campaign.
    The daily mail exists to divide people by class, race, gender and religion to fight for the special interests of the billionaires and corrupt special interests that want wking people to have zero rights.

    Every election we hear the same neo liberal policies on spending and the constant abuse of working rights, injustice, xenophobia, racism, homophobia and nobody in the media wants to address the corruption that exists in our country.

    Boris Johnson is a bigot and his voters sponsor bigotry and hate everyday by voting for politicians owned by corrupt firms, buying and reading the corrupt media that pushes and represents its interests solely of its owners.

    The saddest part, of all this media savagery towards Corbyn, is that the working classes have been brainwashed against him. This is the man who can lift them out from the mess they are in at the moment. They rather believe in a false, lying Etonian Prophet and his oven ready Brexit. Who, in reality, doesnt even think of them as ....hu...n
    All those nasty papers pointing out his anti semitism. Just wicked isn't it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    And when Boris made that claim, he got a rare round of applause. It must have some cut-through.
    I just caught up with that bit this morning. It felt like a massive crowbar into the debate, but it makes sense if that is what people are seeing on their Facebook pages every day.

    Personally, although I don't do Facebook, I do check in on it from time to time and I've seen basically nothing. What is different, is my Labour supporting friends were incredibly vocal in 2017, constantly posting / liking the propaganda, this time around very little.

    It does make me wonder if they are more embarrassed to admit it, but that doesn't mean they won't vote Labour. Will there be a shy Labour effect making the polls inaccurate? (I sound like the CHB now with the tiny straws)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,217
    Stocky said:

    glw said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    They may have come to the end of the rope with this. My guess is they will focus on trust to try to discredit Johnson. I do wonder whether some lurid story may be revealed late in the campaign.
    How much would commitment to reducing the interest on current student loans to 0% cost?
    To be honest - you won`t like this - the interest rate is largely irrelevant. It is a designed to be a graduate tax which expires after 30 years. Best not thought of as a loan. You`d need to be earning ten times average earnings or something to repay prior to 30 years. See calc on moneysavingexpert.

    I recently heard one suggestion to lower the rate of interest but extend the term from 30 to 40 years. This would be worse.
    The student loans are honestly one of the worst marketed bits of government policy ever. It is effectively a graduate tax, and has perhaps the most generous terms people will ever get for a loan. What it needs is tweaking to make sure that the people who pay the most are the higher earners, and that the rates are not too far above RPI.

    Unless you intend to simply give all students grants, and how fair would that be, you are not going to come up with something much better than the current loan system.
    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    As you say, it is a graduate tax -, which has the effect of increasing the income tax rate to >£25k earnings 29% (from 20%), the higher rate tax to 49% (from 40%) and the additional rate tax to 54% (from 45%). This income tax loading stops after 30 years and any residual debt is written off (hence the interest rate is irrelevant) and is extinguished on death.

    It is not a loan, was badly marketed and the LDs were unfairly criticised over it.
    The problem was that the Lib Dems wanted a graduate tax, and the Tories didn't. So we ended up with something that was the worst of the two possible worlds: it functions like a tax, but looks like debt. Every year, graduates get a statement twith a balance of tens of thousands of pounds that they can't possibly repay ever, and feel like i'ts an albatross around their neck. Meanwhile, they also see the hit each month as it comes out their paychecks.

    Putting the interest rate back down to CPI would solve a lot of these problems. Reducing the fees from 9k to 7.5k would help as well, even though it would mostly help high earners. Osbore deserves a lot of opprobrium for changing the way interest rates are calculated - raised almost no money, but made everyone feel worse off.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!

    Johnson has not been referred to the the Equality & Human Rights commission for racism,the only other party that has managed that is the BNP ,which just shows how serious this issue is for Corbyn / Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
    "How is the top score 18?" is the question bugging me. Are we meant to include Grandparents education?
    I understood it as rate education, occupation & finances (as one) 1, 2 or 3 for each of the three generations, then multiply the score for grandparents by 1, for parents by 2, and for self by 3.

    So if (like @Charles is bound to) you score all three generations as '3' points your overall score is 3x1 + 3x2 + 3x3, so 18 in total.

    Mine was 1x1 + 1x2 + 2x3 (let down by education), so 9 overall.

    When I consider my grandparents and my own situation scale of 1 to 3 for education, occupation & finances is not enough imo. 1 to 5 required at least.
    I was just pointing out, in quite an annoyingly smart arse way that I wouldn't like if someone did to me, that there was no requirement for Grandparents education to be considered
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!
    Of the three, Johnson by a country mile.
    Ah I give up - just will not answer the question.

    You know what Robbie? You have the same concerns about Johnson as I do. You just mask it with your party bias. Doesn't fool me. We both know (even you Robbie) Johnson is a piece of sh*t, totally unsuitable to be PM.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kyf_100 said:



    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    As I said in 2017, having millions of views doesn't count for much. On Facebook you can easily get into the hundreds of thousands of views for less than the price of a second hand car.

    What matters is whether or not the message resonates with the target audience and creates a conversation or encourages them to share it. So called "organic" social media is far, far, far more powerful than paid.

    You can shove an ad in front of ten million people and if they all think it is crap you have wasted your money. The Tory ads of 2017 were, without exception, crap. The "stop them arguing" that's been on YouTube is quite good. But I'm yet to see anyone share it or even mention it (execpt on here).

    One thing I have noticed this time round is far, far, far fewer people sharing Labour and Momentum posts on social media. It feels like just the hardcore activists now, whereas in 2017 people I've known for years who I'd never seen express an interest in politics were sharing Corbyn stuff.

    Ultimately I don't think any of the main candidates enthuse this time around. It's the "just get it done so we can get on with our lives" election, which means Boris will probably win. His message resonates. Even if it doesn't enthuse.

    I wonder if this is becoming the "just stop that traitor Corbyn" election.
  • If this analysis is correct one has to wonder why Labour are throwing the kitchen sink at Bolsover. Dennis Skinner is history, it isn't even close.

    https://www.dataprax.is/65-battleground-seats-for-labour
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?
  • melcf said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Control will be with whomever we elect.
    We elect?? Then why has brexit not done yet??
    Because the people we elected in 20-7 pledging to Brexit (over 80% of MPs) haven't done so. So now we get to vote again.

    At least those of us who are British voters do.
  • Byronic said:



    I wonder if this is becoming the "just stop that traitor Corbyn" election.

    It is in Chez Urquhart...and Mrs Urquhart is a lot more to the left than me.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,935
    Stocky said:

    glw said:

    Stocky said:

    The people that pay the most are already the highest earners.

    I thought the very highest earners could repay in full early and therefore pay less in total than some of those who earn a little less.
    Anyone can repay early of they like - though you would be pretty crazy to want to do that for a few reasons, including:
    - what if you repay and then find that you earn less than the minimum per annum (currently £25k)
    - what if you die?
    - what if an future government (Corbyn?) wipes out debt after you have repaid yours?

    In each of these examples you would be kicking yourself because you have repaid a "loan" needlessly.
    Those are all good points, which show why even the "the rich don't pay the most" criticism of the student loans isn't as clear cut as it might seem at first.

    I suspect we will eventually end up with a "fairer" graduate tax, that sees many people paying more money for their education over time, and universities receiving less funding in return, and the beneficiary being the Treasury.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labte for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted soacked up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    And when Boris made that claim, he got a rare round of applause. It must have some cut-through.
    I just caught up with that bit this morning. It felt like a massive crowbar into the debate, but it makes sense if that is what people are seeing on their Facebook pages every day.

    Personally, although I don't do Facebook, I do check in on it from time to time and I've seen basically nothing. What is different, is my Labour supporting friends were incredibly vocal in 2017, constantly posting / liking the propaganda, this time around very little.

    It does make me wonder if they are more embarrassed to admit it, but that doesn't mean they won't vote Labour. Will there be a shy Labour effect making the polls inaccurate? (I sound like the CHB now with the tiny straws)
    I suspect even tribalists who aren't Corbynites (most of them!) are going to give labour a dose of tough love
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    edited December 2019
    edit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    edited December 2019
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!
    Of the three, Johnson by a country mile.
    Ah I give up - just will not answer the question.

    You know what Robbie? You have the same concerns about Johnson as I do. You just mask it with your party bias. Doesn't fool me. We both know (even you Robbie) Johnson is a piece of sh*t, totally unsuitable to be PM.
    Of the options available, he's the least worst. I don't think he's unsuitable to be PM, but he is not my preferred candidate from the Tory benches. In any case, I'm not voting in the election, so my opinion matters naught.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Chillax Robbie, not all Tories are mean, nasty, ugly dimwits. Most but not all.

    You truly happy that a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon is likely to be our future PM? Do you honestly hand on heart think this piece of sh*t will bring our deeply divided country together? Seriously?
    Do you think any of the options would bring the country together? Corbyn wants another shot at the referendum, which would be divisive. And Swinson wants to bin democracy.

    And seriously, tone down the insults for goodness sake.
    Please don't switch the subject to Swinson or Corbyn. We can have a discussion about them later. I am asking you about JOHNSON! What do you think of him and his capabilities? Please answer the question!

    At least Johnson has not been referred to the the Equality & Human Rights commission for racism,the only other party that has managed that is the BNP ,which just shows how serious this issue is for Corbyn / Labour.
    Buddy - you a bot or just plain stupid? What value are you adding? It's not as if this place has not got enough right-wing halfwits furiously posting an alt-right view of the world! Jeez!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,278
    edited December 2019

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    Why do you think it is resonating this time, but didn't last time? In 2017, the papers went massive on terrorist sympathising, this time it is antisemitism and much less about his IRA mates. I honestly presumed the terrorist stuff was just now all factored in.

    It has been all over Tory social media efforts around here and it has been mentioned consistently by Johnson and co. May never used it in 2017.

    Hold on....wasn't there a video in 2017 that got millions and millions of views that all the Tories got super excited about as it was exposing Jezza as the terrorist best mate? No?

    Or are you saying, the messaging is more consistent and better targeted this?

    It's been very highly-targeted social media messaging backed up, crucially, by consistent repetition of the same message by key figures in the Tory campaign. May did not debate Corbyn in 2017, Johnson used the IRA against him during Friday's debate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50695028/election-debate-boris-johnson-claims-jeremy-corbyn-supported-the-ira

    Do we know if Crosby / Textor are on Team Tory this time around? One of the biggest mistakes I remember from 2017 was May not wanting anything to do with the team that boasted about having incredibly detailed info on pretty much every voter and were used so effectively in 2015.
    CCHQ has recruited new gurus from down under. Australian Isaac Levido heads the campaign with NZ social media shit-posters Sean Topham and Ben Guerin. All have a Lynton Crosby heritage.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/30/inside-tory-election-machine-key-players-looking-mastermind/

    ETA: Crosby was on Team May
  • Byronic said:
    By "bizarre claims", does she mean he is antisemite terrorist sympathizer?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    Could you explain it a bit better? I'm keen to try
    This is one of those things where secretly everyone wants to come out as being really posh, even though they really hate the posh.

    The British class system is one hell of a funny thing.
    "How is the top score 18?" is the question bugging me. Are we meant to include Grandparents education?
    I understood it as rate education, occupation & finances (as one) 1, 2 or 3 for each of the three generations, then multiply the score for grandparents by 1, for parents by 2, and for self by 3.

    So if (like @Charles is bound to) you score all three generations as '3' points your overall score is 3x1 + 3x2 + 3x3, so 18 in total.

    Mine was 1x1 + 1x2 + 2x3 (let down by education), so 9 overall.

    When I consider my grandparents and my own situation scale of 1 to 3 for education, occupation & finances is not enough imo. 1 to 5 required at least.
    I was just pointing out, in quite an annoyingly smart arse way that I wouldn't like if someone did to me, that there was no requirement for Grandparents education to be considered
    :lol:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,278
    edited December 2019
    deleted
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    edited December 2019
    decrepiterjohnL: I can`t get the hang of this block quote thing.


    They do not have the "debt hanging over them" unless they choose to (incorrectly) think of it in those terms. It is a liability to pay a 9% higher income tax rate for 30 years. It is not a loan. No-one is ever going to ask you to repay it (other than through a higher income tax rate).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Anyone got a link to TSE's handy bar chart?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    Endillion said:

    I'm a third generation comfortably-well-off middle class professional. Am I an 18, or a 12?

    If it's the former, your system needs some recalibration, because no way in hell am I as posh as it gets.

    Ah no. You are in the 12 to 14 range. Let's say 13. Middle class as they come.

    That was an easy one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982

    Byronic said:



    I wonder if this is becoming the "just stop that traitor Corbyn" election.

    It is in Chez Urquhart...and Mrs Urquhart is a lot more to the left than me.

    Not difficult, shirley? :wink:
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125
    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Tories roasting babies on an open fire.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    dr_spyn said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    So you'll be very happy to get Brexit done with the resulting cost reductions for food,footwear & clothing due UK no longer having to apply EU restrictive tariffs & quotas.
    Brexit was not about economics. It was more about immigration, or fear of immigration, nostalgia from pensioners and the working class revolting, after 6 years of Tory austerity. Take back control, is basically control in the hands of Rees Mogg and fellow aristocrats. Who ideally would like children to be going up the chimney and not the social ladder. Be real!
    Is there actually any point posting things like this here?
    Isn't this election all about an oven ready Brexit?? To cover 10 years of Tory misrule
    I was referring to the ridiculous comments about Tories wanting children up the chimney and the like.
    Tories roasting babies on an open fire.
    Precisely. What good are they stuck up a chimney?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited December 2019


    CCHQ has recruited new gurus from down under. Australian Isaac Levido heads the campaign with NZ social media shit-posters Sean Topham and Ben Guerin. All have a Lynton Crosby heritage.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/30/inside-tory-election-machine-key-players-looking-mastermind/

    I was aware of the Kiwi Shitsters, but my understanding of the real value of Textor was his massive database of voters and their leanings.

    Yes Crosby did the dead cat stuff, but it was Textor devised and highly targeted ads that really helped the Tories in 2015. Without that kind of database, it is more difficult task even with good ads.
This discussion has been closed.