Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

1567810

Comments

  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    There is an eery quietness about the situation on the ground. I would like more reports from Northern/Midlands leave seats, where the majority will be won or lost.

    Theres a bit of talk about Labour struggling, but not a huge amount to go on.

    Quiet and confused. No one knows, I think. It's a cliche, but I've heard more people talking of last-minute decisions than ever before.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    You've gotten over your panicked defeatism then?
    Granted, a repeat of 2017 seems unlikely given the available evidence.

    For @Chris, Labour since 1979, another summary:

    Second
    Second
    Second
    Second
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Second
    Second
    Second
    Probably Second

    Does that better fulfil your balance criterion? 😊
    Thanks. That's a bit better. Now we just have to address the starting and stopping criteria :-)
    Last forty years seems reasonable? :p
    40 is a bit of an odd figure, isn't it? Why not 25?
  • Chris said:

    Mr Farage revealed that he’s already registered a new political group – the Reform Party – to replace the Brexit Party if the UK leaves the EU.

    Is he going for a record or something?
    It is a times like this it is nice to raise the record of Robert McIntyre who was the first SNP MP. He was elected at a by-election in 1945 but lost his seat 3 months later at the GE. Between 1950 and 1974 he then made 9 further attempts to become an MP again, all without success.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes. 4 defeats sets up the landslide victory.

    #pidcock2024
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
  • Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Chump change...in scale of Labour's plans that is like me finding 10p down the back of the sofa.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sending foot soldiers to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport makes sense for a party that has no chance of picking up seats in the SW, where (presumably) safe Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is the only other seat they hold until you get to Bristol - and where maybe Brexit Party's Ann Widdecombe is proving weirdly attractive to some Labour voting/Strictly loving cross-over group.

    They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.

    Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.

    North Korea would approve of Boris’s Brexit.
    Brexit is fundamentally a juche project.
    Very good! :smile:
    But even North Korea didn't trade-blockade itself.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Surprisingly not ! Lol . It was in the manifesto .
  • Byronic said:

    Three more. I'm not cherry picking these. I am choosing the most interesting. There are 100s

    twitter.com/pete_eastwood/status/1201921839829856256?s=20

    twitter.com/gaoblai/status/1201811671670566919?s=20

    twitter.com/Allpunsblazin/status/1203667194695110656?s=20

    I have a feeling the next JezFest won't be held in the Midlands or the North...
  • When are the next polls due out ?
  • TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Chris said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    I think you could be a bit more balanced. Try:
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Narrow Tory victory under Major
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Hung Parliament
    Narrow Tory Victory under Cameron
    Hung Parliament
    ?

    Correction..

    Thatcher - fucked working people (killed some)
    Major - fucked working people (killed some)
    Blair - fucked working people
    Brown - fucked working people (can pay for a war\bank bailout)
    cameron\clegg - fucked working people (killed some)
    May - fucked working people
    Johnson fucked working people (wants to kill the feckless and illegitimate if given opportunity)

    All politicians sponsored and endorsed by Rupert Murdoch and corrupt neo liberals for profit.
    Who dare says that the quality of debate has gone downhill?
    Stop buying the corrupt media and voting for neo liberals and guess what the corruption stops.
    Can I suggest you do some research on whether there is/was corruption (in the media and elsewhere) in 'Socialist' states? Regardless of policies, a Corbyn government won't stop corruption. Indeed the centralisation of power is likely to increase it; history tells us this.
    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    When are the next polls due out ?

    I think only one today but not till tonight . That’s Survation .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Chris said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    I think you could be a bit more balanced. Try:
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Narrow Tory victory under Major
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Hung Parliament
    Narrow Tory Victory under Cameron
    Hung Parliament
    ?

    Correction..

    Thatcher - fucked working people (killed some)
    Major - fucked working people (killed some)
    Blair - fucked working people
    Brown - fucked working people (can pay for a war\bank bailout)
    cameron\clegg - fucked working people (killed some)
    May - fucked working people
    Johnson fucked working people (wants to kill the feckless and illegitimate if given opportunity)

    All politicians sponsored and endorsed by Rupert Murdoch and corrupt neo liberals for profit.
    Who dare says that the quality of debate has gone downhill?
    Stop buying the corrupt media and voting for neo liberals and guess what the corruption stops.
    Can I suggest you do some research on whether there is/was corruption (in the media and elsewhere) in 'Socialist' states? Regardless of policies, a Corbyn government won't stop corruption. Indeed the centralisation of power is likely to increase it; history tells us this.
    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
    We're going to be wearing badges, remember? No need to tell anyone.
  • One thing that strikes me as odd - if this election is all about how terrible Corbyn is, why is it that the Mori leader satisfaction ratings point to a Tory lead of 6-7 points, at the bottom of the polling? If Corbyn was the main problem, you'd expect Labour to be polling above the level suggested by the leader ratings, not below. Something doesn't add up.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    kinabalu said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes. 4 defeats sets up the landslide victory.

    #pidcock2024
    Dream on
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    Your linguistic use is very similar to miss scarlet. Are you related?
    I don't trust anyone who puts the pound symbol after the cash amount.
    definitely dodgy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Alistair said:

    I've just heard the BBC report that Sturgeon thinks the Scottish people should determine whether there is another Indyref, rather than Westminister. Isn't that a referendum to decide whether to have a referendum? The only way out of that is to have another referendum.

    Any referendum can only be considered after Holyrood 2021

    That Holyrood election will provide a mandate or otherwise to request a referendum and HMG will need to consider it carefully

    It is interesting to note that in the latest Scots opinion poll SNP = 39% Pro Union = 60%

    Food for thought there
    Why 2021, why not 2016 when pro indy parties got a majority.
    Exactly my point Alistair, just made up as they go along. In 2021 it will be the wrong type of majority. Roll on Brexit and then get the beggars into court tout suite.
  • nico67 said:

    When are the next polls due out ?

    I think only one today but not till tonight . That’s Survation .
    Thanks.
  • When the media report swing, do they use the Butler or Steed swing?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Tory Remainers & Labour Leavers - the Story of Election 2019.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    One thing that strikes me as odd - if this election is all about how terrible Corbyn is, why is it that the Mori leader satisfaction ratings point to a Tory lead of 6-7 points, at the bottom of the polling? If Corbyn was the main problem, you'd expect Labour to be polling above the level suggested by the leader ratings, not below. Something doesn't add up.

    Labour's asking its base to accept Brexit being flushed down the toilet, and asking the rest of the country to accept the same for capitalism.

    I'm amazed Labour's polling as high as it is.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    There is an eery quietness about the situation on the ground. I would like more reports from Northern/Midlands leave seats, where the majority will be won or lost.

    Theres a bit of talk about Labour struggling, but not a huge amount to go on.

    There always has been talk since 2017. In 2017, Wrexham and Grimsby were firmly in Tories bag, until counting started and let the cat out of the bag. In 2019, even 'polls'confirm the same.
    However the people I spoke to in the North are three types. One, get brexit done, second austerity affected and third who don't seem 'botherwered'
    To presume a lying, Etonian Bojo is going to charm the panties off the Northern leave voters,with his oversized buns in the Brexit oven, is frankly wishful thinking.
    I calculated roughly 10-30 seats are at risk. Hower only after counting we shall know
    For the betters, Scunthorpe,Lincoln, Vale of Clywd are still RED, as of today.
    Wrexham and Grimsby are a toss up, with 5% margin. However, I am sure all 5 are currently safely in the Tory bag?? Dream on
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    My mum was a teacher, my dad left school at 16 and went to work in the family shop.

    What does that make me?
    Still upper middle class Charles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Was delivering pledge letters for David Burrowes in Enfield Southgate this morning and plenty of Burrowes posters up, in fact more than Labour.

    While most of the North London Labour activists and Momentum are in Chingford and Woodford Green or Hendon, it seems they might be neglecting Enfield Southgate
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019

    I understood it as rate education, occupation & finances (as one) 1, 2 or 3 for each of the three generations, then multiply the score for grandparents by 1, for parents by 2, and for self by 3.

    So if (like @Charles is bound to) you score all three generations as '3' points your overall score is 3x1 + 3x2 + 3x3, so 18 in total.

    Mine was 1x1 + 1x2 + 2x3 (let down by education), so 9 overall.

    When I consider my grandparents and my own situation scale of 1 to 3 for education, occupation & finances is not enough imo. 1 to 5 required at least.

    Spot on. But rather than expand to 1/5 you can just go to 1 dec point with the 1/3.

    So you are (just) working class.

    Charles (if he truly was an 18) would be full monty aristo.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Charles said:

    Endillion said:

    OK, serious question. I've been trawling through the parties' list of candidates on their own websites (don't ask) and have discovered that:

    - Safia Ali, Labour candidate for Falkirk; and
    - Waheed Rafiq, Lib Dem candidate for Birmingham, Hodge Hill,

    are both listed as official candidates for their respective parties, despite having supposedly been struck off for anti-Semitism.

    Anyone know why they might have been let back in, or is this just incompetence? If not does anyone have some email addresses I can issue complaints to, or should I just use their complaint forms and hope?

    Also any other suspended candidates I've forgotten about?

    Do you really think that if either of them (or the former Tory in ?Aberdeen) won they wouldn’t take the party whip?
    I have no idea, although it seems like probably a moot point in all cases.

    The SNP seem to have followed through on the disowning of their candidate in Kirkcaldy and Caldenbeath, which is most definitely not a moot point. Kudos to them.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Chris said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    I think you could be a bit more balanced. Try:
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Narrow Tory victory under Major
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Hung Parliament
    Narrow Tory Victory under Cameron
    Hung Parliament
    ?

    Correction..

    Thatcher - fucked working people (killed some)
    Major - fucked working people (killed some)
    Blair - fucked working people
    Brown - fucked working people (can pay for a war\bank bailout)
    cameron\clegg - fucked working people (killed some)
    May - fucked working people
    Johnson fucked working people (wants to kill the feckless and illegitimate if given opportunity)

    All politicians sponsored and endorsed by Rupert Murdoch and corrupt neo liberals for profit.
    Who dare says that the quality of debate has gone downhill?
    Stop buying the corrupt media and voting for neo liberals and guess what the corruption stops.
    Can I suggest you do some research on whether there is/was corruption (in the media and elsewhere) in 'Socialist' states? Regardless of policies, a Corbyn government won't stop corruption. Indeed the centralisation of power is likely to increase it; history tells us this.
    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
    You really are determined to be offensive aren't you? Observing that corruption is prevalent in left-wing states has nothing to do with poverty, homelessness or the rest. I think if you re-read some of your own posts you will see exactly what 'hate speech' looks like.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    malcolmg said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    Your linguistic use is very similar to miss scarlet. Are you related?
    I don't trust anyone who puts the pound symbol after the cash amount.
    definitely dodgy
    Odd for sure. I do worry about potential Russian interference in our electoral processes.

    Maybe The House of Commons Intelligence and Security Committee could conduct an investiation into these allegations?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
  • Further off-the-wall thought: what if we paid attention to where leadership favourability is concentrated, just as we do with voting intention? Of course there will be huge overlap between the two, but I suspect that the areas where people feel really positive about Corbyn are especially geographically-concentrated, which lessens their electoral significance and thus the salience of the positive ratings he has.
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    Chris said:

    Mr Farage revealed that he’s already registered a new political group – the Reform Party – to replace the Brexit Party if the UK leaves the EU.

    Is he going for a record or something?
    It is a times like this it is nice to raise the record of Robert McIntyre who was the first SNP MP. He was elected at a by-election in 1945 but lost his seat 3 months later at the GE. Between 1950 and 1974 he then made 9 further attempts to become an MP again, all without success.
    According to wikipedia, this election is the 9th time Lindsay Whittle has tried to be the Plaid MP for Caerphilly. First attempt in 1983, and all subsequent elections apart from 2015. His best result was 21% in 2001, and 14% in 2017. Have to admire his perseverance if nothing else!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    i will be sad once the election period is over.

    Presumably the locking up of the likes of Francois and Bridgen will come to an end and we'll have to put with their puffery once more.

    Talking of which, what news of the wingnut in chief, Chris Williamson, is he nailed on to represent his Venezuelan constituency of Derby North?

    Look on the bright side. At least we will be rid of the usual election time Trolls, as exemplified this time around by MissScarlett and melcf.
    What got rid of Noo? Or are they back incognito????
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes.

    Opposed by the Sun newspaper.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.

    An exact match.

    But we get the same if we use the Financial Times - at least back to 1997; not sure about before then. And this time the FT aren't backing the Tories.

    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    You said that in 2017 and it made no difference. I doubt it will this year either. The Birmingham pub bombings were 45 years ago. How many voters even remember them let alone feel that strongly?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Henrietta said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes.

    Opposed by the Sun newspaper.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.

    An exact match.

    But we get the same if we use the Financial Times - at least back to 1997; not sure about before then. And this time the FT aren't backing the Tories.

    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?


    Probably cause the Sun knew which way the wind was blowing.
  • Definitely #pidcock2024 as the Momentum leader, Labour having been sued into oblivion following their EHRC anti-Semitic finding.

    She won't win the election of course. Why would she want to do that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    Well there's a thought.

    Universal Credit allows a single person unable to work £73.34 per week for all non-housing expenses (£58.10 for under-25s).

    So the government thinks you can mange on circa £10 per day for food, heating, electricity, water, clothes, transport, etc....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    You said that in 2017 and it made no difference. I doubt it will this year either. The Birmingham pub bombings were 45 years ago. How many voters even remember them let alone feel that strongly?
    Normally, I'd agree. But the Tories are hammering it on social media, according to LABOUR canvassers on Twitter, and it is getting through.

    See my posts below.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    Boris Johnson vs Melanie On (labour Grimsby mp)

    Johnson - get brexit done.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the bill and it passed. Why did you call an election?
    Johnson - I want brexit done. Vote conservative in Grimsby.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the brexit bill more times than you did.
    Johnson - the labour party stopped brexit.
    Melanie (labour mp) - no your MPs stopped it. Twice you rebelled against mays deal and on your bill your MPs voted against it so it failed. I voted for it your MPs in the south voted against it.
    Johnson - waffles...blusters..get brexit done vote Tory in Grimsby.
    Melanie - replace my vote for brexit for a Tory voting for brexit. Makes total sense!!!!

    Yes it does
    Melanie was trailing in Grimsby, for a couole of weeks. Seems to have just pulled ahead, in the last few days. Overall, a repeat of 2017. Same story in neighbouring Scunthorpe. In Lincoln, Karen Lee has always been ahead, from start
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    kinabalu said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes. 4 defeats sets up the landslide victory.

    #pidcock2024
    There's the spirit.
  • @melcf - You've been warned previously about posting libelous claims.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Henrietta said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes.

    Opposed by the Sun newspaper.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.

    An exact match.

    But we get the same if we use the Financial Times - at least back to 1997; not sure about before then. And this time the FT aren't backing the Tories.

    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?


    The power of the newspapers is overstated. Possibly in the past, certainly now. It's arguable that the Murdoch press merely changed sides to back the winner once the public tired of the Conservatives. Or, to put it another way, would the backing of The Sun have made much difference to Michael Foot's chances in 1983? Possibly not...

    Anyway, if there's an upset and we do have another Hung Parliament then yes, one has to assume that this would lead to another EU referendum, regardless of the exact arithmetic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited December 2019
    Henrietta said:



    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?

    It's literally the only thing that will be agreed upon by the majority.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    melcf said:

    Boris Johnson vs Melanie On (labour Grimsby mp)

    Johnson - get brexit done.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the bill and it passed. Why did you call an election?
    Johnson - I want brexit done. Vote conservative in Grimsby.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the brexit bill more times than you did.
    Johnson - the labour party stopped brexit.
    Melanie (labour mp) - no your MPs stopped it. Twice you rebelled against mays deal and on your bill your MPs voted against it so it failed. I voted for it your MPs in the south voted against it.
    Johnson - waffles...blusters..get brexit done vote Tory in Grimsby.
    Melanie - replace my vote for brexit for a Tory voting for brexit. Makes total sense!!!!

    Yes it does
    Melanie was trailing in Grimsby, for a couole of weeks. Seems to have just pulled ahead, in the last few days. Overall, a repeat of 2017. Same story in neighbouring Scunthorpe. In Lincoln, Karen Lee has always been ahead, from start
    The PB Onnanists can breathe a sigh of relief.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    malcolmg said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    Your linguistic use is very similar to miss scarlet. Are you related?
    I don't trust anyone who puts the pound symbol after the cash amount.
    definitely dodgy
    Yep, 'trust and dodgy' . However, trust vote for a pathological liar, who was sacked from two jobs for lying, a serial philanderer, a back stabber and a man who cheated on his cancer stricken wife. Also a well known racist and homophobe. Hmm may be we like him, because he represents us??
  • Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Free Sky Sports on Monday
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Chris said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    I think you could be a bit more balanced. Try:
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Thatcher
    Narrow Tory victory under Major
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Hung Parliament
    Narrow Tory Victory under Cameron
    Hung Parliament
    ?

    Correction..

    Thatcher - fucked working people (killed some)
    Major - fucked working people (killed some)
    Blair - fucked working people
    Brown - fucked working people (can pay for a war\bank bailout)
    cameron\clegg - fucked working people (killed some)
    May - fucked working people
    Johnson fucked working people (wants to kill the feckless and illegitimate if given opportunity)

    All politicians sponsored and endorsed by Rupert Murdoch and corrupt neo liberals for profit.
    Who dare says that the quality of debate has gone downhill?
    Stop buying the corrupt media and voting for neo liberals and guess what the corruption stops.
    Can I suggest you do some research on whether there is/was corruption (in the media and elsewhere) in 'Socialist' states? Regardless of policies, a Corbyn government won't stop corruption. Indeed the centralisation of power is likely to increase it; history tells us this.
    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
    But corbyn is the best enabler for a Tory government, get rid of him and nationalization’s and stop trying to give power back to corrupt trade unions then people may take you seriously and don’t forget to clean out the antisemites then you might, just start to be electable. This is from an almost life long anti Tory who has spent 25 years on the doorsteps fighting them in the past.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    dyingswan said:

    If the Conservatives hit 29%in Scotland as suggested by Panelbase am I right in thinking that that is their highest share since 1979. Remarkable if so.

    Exceedingly unlikely , but would not be remarkable. The Labour voters who hate SNP, and majority of the bigots loving bands and the union jack will likely go to Tories. LibDems are useless and those types will not be interested in Greens. Morons vote for Johnson et al down south despite their nastiness and we have our share of morons and bigots up here as well unfortunately.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    melcf said:

    malcolmg said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    Your linguistic use is very similar to miss scarlet. Are you related?
    I don't trust anyone who puts the pound symbol after the cash amount.
    definitely dodgy
    Yep, 'trust and dodgy' . However, trust vote for a pathological liar, who was sacked from two jobs for lying, a serial philanderer, a back stabber and a man who cheated on his cancer stricken wife. Also a well known racist and homophobe. Hmm may be we like him, because he represents us??
    Come clean then @melcf why did you put the £ sign after the amount?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    My mum was a teacher, my dad left school at 16 and went to work in the family shop.

    What does that make me?
    Very rich and extremely well-connected by all accounts.
    Poshest of the posh with bells on
  • Fun fact
    North Cornwall has the highest child poverty in the country at 33%.
    North Cornwall has the fastest average property rise in the country. Average houses prices in padstow are now 472k (majority second homes)

    Tories don't care about child poverty but they do care about thecworthbof their second third homes...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    It's one of those tactics that I really think does not work. I get there is a question people raise about 'if his wife/wives cannot trust him, how can we?', but it's not necessary with Boris as there's so much else that is more important, and in any case we will all know some great politicians who were not admirable in their personal lives.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    Watching mel/scarlet have a conversation with her/himself is making my afternoon

    You think it's funny? Projecting your thoughts ? Good luck
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Henrietta said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes.

    Opposed by the Sun newspaper.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.

    An exact match.

    But we get the same if we use the Financial Times - at least back to 1997; not sure about before then. And this time the FT aren't backing the Tories.

    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?


    The power of the newspapers is overstated. Possibly in the past, certainly now. It's arguable that the Murdoch press merely changed sides to back the winner once the public tired of the Conservatives. Or, to put it another way, would the backing of The Sun have made much difference to Michael Foot's chances in 1983? Possibly not...

    Anyway, if there's an upset and we do have another Hung Parliament then yes, one has to assume that this would lead to another EU referendum, regardless of the exact arithmetic.
    The internet has of course changed things immensely . I also think people are much more cynical about newspapers in general. And tend to not believe much of what they have to say .
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019

    Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Free Sky Sports on Monday
    No, Free Sky Sports 4 days a week...the other 3 the power won't be working.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    melcf said:

    Boris Johnson vs Melanie On (labour Grimsby mp)

    Johnson - get brexit done.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the bill and it passed. Why did you call an election?
    Johnson - I want brexit done. Vote conservative in Grimsby.
    Melanie (labour mp) - I voted for the brexit bill more times than you did.
    Johnson - the labour party stopped brexit.
    Melanie (labour mp) - no your MPs stopped it. Twice you rebelled against mays deal and on your bill your MPs voted against it so it failed. I voted for it your MPs in the south voted against it.
    Johnson - waffles...blusters..get brexit done vote Tory in Grimsby.
    Melanie - replace my vote for brexit for a Tory voting for brexit. Makes total sense!!!!

    Yes it does
    Melanie was trailing in Grimsby, for a couole of weeks. Seems to have just pulled ahead, in the last few days. Overall, a repeat of 2017. Same story in neighbouring Scunthorpe. In Lincoln, Karen Lee has always been ahead, from start
    Buzz astroturf. To PB, and beyond!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    For those that are interested, the live scraping of BBC website is now much more efficient, so less concerned about the ban hammer.

    Still might take me a little while after the first result on election night to get up and running as it depends on how much the BBC change their results pages.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Triple-frying turnips costs a fortune in electricity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    melcf said:

    Watching mel/scarlet have a conversation with her/himself is making my afternoon

    You think it's funny? Projecting your thoughts ? Good luck
    Its amusing me so yep, I do. Tell us more of your wisdom about Wrexham, Lincoln, Grimsby and everywhere else you well travelled wise old bird
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    For those that are interested, the live scraping of BBC website is now much more efficient, so less concerned about the ban hammer.

    Still might take me a little while after the first result on election night to get up and running as it depends on how much the BBC change their results pages.

    I look forward to it... even though I doubt I'll like what it says :disappointed:
  • Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.

    I agree with the British press that there was no reason to report that prince William cheated on Kate Middleton when she was pregnant with his third child. Americans disagreed because of how Meghan has been badly treated so they reported it. With Johnson its different, he has used words to describe single mothers and we have a right to know if he has more children which byb all accounts he does but doesn't want to talk about it because embarrassing to his reputation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Free Sky Sports on Monday
    No, Free Sky Sports 4 days a week...the other 3 the power won't be working.
    Yep back to the bad old 70s days of that terrible Labour PM... er, Ted Heath. :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    nico67 said:

    Henrietta said:

    Labour, 1979 to 2019, a summary:

    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Blair
    Blair
    Blair
    Defeat
    Defeat
    Defeat
    and, barring a miracle,
    Defeat

    Can anyone see a pattern here?

    Yes.

    Opposed by the Sun newspaper.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Supported.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.
    Opposed.

    An exact match.

    But we get the same if we use the Financial Times - at least back to 1997; not sure about before then. And this time the FT aren't backing the Tories.

    Tories 310 +/- 25. And if there is a HP, surely there will have to be a EUref rerun?


    The power of the newspapers is overstated. Possibly in the past, certainly now. It's arguable that the Murdoch press merely changed sides to back the winner once the public tired of the Conservatives. Or, to put it another way, would the backing of The Sun have made much difference to Michael Foot's chances in 1983? Possibly not...

    Anyway, if there's an upset and we do have another Hung Parliament then yes, one has to assume that this would lead to another EU referendum, regardless of the exact arithmetic.
    The internet has of course changed things immensely . I also think people are much more cynical about newspapers in general. And tend to not believe much of what they have to say .
    Up to a point Lord Copper.

    My mum is a regular Sun reader and, never historically a Tory voter, she seems to have taken on board their portrayal of Corbyn.

    Then again so have many of non-Sun readers I guess.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    malcolmg said:



    Tories roasting babies on an open fire.

    Stop, you're making me feel all Christmassy!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.

    I agree with the British press that there was no reason to report that prince William cheated on Kate Middleton when she was pregnant with his third child. Americans disagreed because of how Meghan has been badly treated so they reported it. With Johnson its different, he has used words to describe single mothers and we have a right to know if he has more children which byb all accounts he does but doesn't want to talk about it because embarrassing to his reputation.
    "...William cheated on Kate Middleton..."?! Are you sure??

    Seems unlikely to me - but maybe I take the idea of marriage being about trust and commitment more seriously than the royals do?
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17

    Forecast here: UK-Elect Forecast December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    The inclusion of additional recent Scottish, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a noticeable increase in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.

    I agree with the British press that there was no reason to report that prince William cheated on Kate Middleton when she was pregnant with his third child. Americans disagreed because of how Meghan has been badly treated so they reported it. With Johnson its different, he has used words to describe single mothers and we have a right to know if he has more children which byb all accounts he does but doesn't want to talk about it because embarrassing to his reputation.
    "...."?! Are you sure??

    Seems unlikely to me - but maybe I take the idea of marriage being about trust and commitment more seriously than the royals do?
    Be careful about repeating libel
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    RobD said:

    Endillion said:

    With the increased use of social media and micro-targeted adverts, I'd be surprised if CCHQ is not sending the IRA and Jewish stuff to appropriate recipients, while Labour does likewise with Boris's unfortunate past statements. Unless you are a Black Jewish Muslim whose granny suffers dementia and whose daughter needs a school place near the hospital in a marginal constituency, you will not see all the messages.

    I'm not at all sure this below-the-radar campaigning is good for democracy but we are where we are. For one thing, if Jo Swinson does not even know what Plaid Cymru says about her, she can hardly refute it.
    I am pretty confident that CCHQ is not actively targeting Jews with ads on Labour's anti-Semitism. Firstly, they don't need to; secondly; there aren't that many people who can be easily targeted; and thirdly, they've been pretty quiet on the issue over the past few years, preferring to let the media and Labour backbenchers make the running on what is, essentially, an internal Labour problem.
    Yep, just a Labour problem:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767411/Tories-launch-anti-Semitism-probe-three-candidates.html
    Different magnitude. One party is being reviewed by the equalities commission.
    Big problems never start out that way. They start as little problems which are ignored until they become big crises.

    Am going to repost this. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/

    Were the Tory leadership wise they would follow my advice. As it is ........
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    malcolmg said:


    Tories roasting babies on an open fire.

    Are you insane?! Everyone knows you have to wrap them in foil and slow grill them.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Twitter

    Wow this video really brings home what Corbyn’s antisemitism has brought about in our society. We’ve all become weary, maybe even tired, of talking about Labour Antisemitism, but it is an utter poison. https://t.co/Ms3iNys9bj

    In your party too @Big_G_NorthWales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767411/Tories-launch-anti-Semitism-probe-three-candidates.html
    Difference is we will deal with it and we are not under investigation by the EHRC
    Can the same be said of Islamaphobia in the Conservative Party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:


    RobD said:

    Endillion said:

    With the increased use of social media and micro-targeted adverts, I'd be surprised if CCHQ is not sending the IRA and Jewish stuff to appropriate recipients, while Labour does likewise with Boris's unfortunate past statements. Unless you are a Black Jewish Muslim whose granny suffers dementia and whose daughter needs a school place near the hospital in a marginal constituency, you will not see all the messages.

    I'm not at all sure this below-the-radar campaigning is good for democracy but we are where we are. For one thing, if Jo Swinson does not even know what Plaid Cymru says about her, she can hardly refute it.
    I am pretty confident that CCHQ is not actively targeting Jews with ads on Labour's anti-Semitism. Firstly, they don't need to; secondly; there aren't that many people who can be easily targeted; and thirdly, they've been pretty quiet on the issue over the past few years, preferring to let the media and Labour backbenchers make the running on what is, essentially, an internal Labour problem.
    Yep, just a Labour problem:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767411/Tories-launch-anti-Semitism-probe-three-candidates.html
    Different magnitude. One party is being reviewed by the equalities commission.
    Big problems never start out that way. They start as little problems which are ignored until they become big crises.

    Am going to repost this. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/

    Were the Tory leadership wise they would follow my advice. As it is ........
    Yes. I think we all would like to believe it is not as severe a problem, if only because we hope no party has such a problem to begin with, but some of these 'only one party is being reviewed' comments might end up being a little premature, we shall see, it might pay to be cautious.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    Ah well it's a day's food but for two. You could get by on UC provided you only ate one meal a day, wear no clothes, require no heating or electricity (so that's raw chicken) and can walk to the shops. :smile:
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    edited December 2019
    Exciting election poster update from the streets of Finchley!

    I counted LD 10, Labour 8, Tory 0 on my stroll this morning. Shows how much it tells you..I expect the Tories to hold the seat

    In fact I havent seen a Tory election poster in London yet
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    ukelect said:

    The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17

    Forecast here: UK-Elect Forecast December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    The inclusion of additional recent Scottish, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a noticeable increase in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.

    Tories only 3 seats shy of my premonition.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    This twitter thread (which was posted below by nunu) is, prima facie, revelatory

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TracyAnnO/status/1203397839453380611

    If half of these anecdotes are in the vicinity of reality, then Labour could be headed for an unprecedented meltdown. Their people just won't come out and vote for Corbyn. They might not switch to Boris, Farage or Swinson, but they won't give the anti-semite their support, either.

    Labour could lose many dozens of seats. Maybe a hundred?

    It will be a bloodbath for Labour in the Midlands. Corbyn's support for the IRA may not resonate so much in other parts of the country, but here it is utterly toxic.

    You said that in 2017 and it made no difference. I doubt it will this year either. The Birmingham pub bombings were 45 years ago. How many voters even remember them let alone feel that strongly?
    Normally, I'd agree. But the Tories are hammering it on social media, according to LABOUR canvassers on Twitter, and it is getting through.

    See my posts below.
    Thanks. Have seen.

    Let’s see. I’m still in the Hung Parliament camp.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    (deleted)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    malcolmg said:

    dyingswan said:

    If the Conservatives hit 29%in Scotland as suggested by Panelbase am I right in thinking that that is their highest share since 1979. Remarkable if so.

    Exceedingly unlikely , but would not be remarkable. The Labour voters who hate SNP, and majority of the bigots loving bands and the union jack will likely go to Tories. LibDems are useless and those types will not be interested in Greens. Morons vote for Johnson et al down south despite their nastiness and we have our share of morons and bigots up here as well unfortunately.
    Yes, if only the rest of your fellow Scots were as calm, thoughtful and decorously polite as you, Malc
  • nichomar said:

    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.

    But corbyn is the best enabler for a Tory government, get rid of him and nationalization’s and stop trying to give power back to corrupt trade unions then people may take you seriously and don’t forget to clean out the antisemites then you might, just start to be electable. This is from an almost life long anti Tory who has spent 25 years on the doorsteps fighting them in the past.

    The political class across every party is full of corrupt cronies in politics to fuel their own bellies and corrupt media and special interest groups.

    Every labour potential pm has to go through the same shit from the Tory press. Wilson was a spy miliband was a Marxist. Its a fucking sham by corporate neo liberals to smearto Avoid talking about issues.

    Poverty..no I want to talk about anti Semitism.
    Homelessness..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Tax avoidance..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Privatisation.. No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Bank bailouts... No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Foreign wars...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Education...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Prisons..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Healthcare..no I want to talk about antisemitism
    Housing...no I want to talk about antisemitism

    Vote for what you value in society not what your against. If your voting Tory because you don't like someone shame on you. Look at your soul..your ticking a box for enables of child poverty, homelessness, privatisation for services to be profited for the few. Vote for what you believe not against.

    Gutter politics for neo liberals that dnomt want any political debate or exposure to their failure to make Britain a better place. Westminster and their media cronies across every party have failed us
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Exciting election poster update from the streets of Finchley!

    I counted LD 10, Labour 8, Tory 0 on my stroll this morning. Shows how much it tells you..I expect the Tories to hold the seat

    In fact I havent seen a Tory election poster in London yet

    Same round my way. Scattered Labour rectangles and Lib Dem diamonds, not a blue poster in sight.

    Sitting Tory has a 16.5k majority.
    EDIT: there obviously has to be some print cost to these posters. Have the Tories simply decided that they are useless and no longer bothering to waste the money?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    ukelect said:

    The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17

    Forecast here: UK-Elect Forecast December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    The inclusion of additional recent Scottish, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a noticeable increase in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.

    Tories only 3 seats shy of my premonition.
    It’s certainly interesting to see the difference in assumed outcomes from a similar fact pattern between the professionals (whose reputation goes with results) and enthusiastic amateurs and their “models”.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    Ah well it's a day's food but for two. You could get by on UC provided you only ate one meal a day, wear no clothes, require no heating or electricity (so that's raw chicken) and can walk to the shops. :smile:
    Would be a bit of a shock to the public having to see me shopping in the buff.
  • Charles said:

    I am genuinely surprised we haven't had another big Labour giveaway yet.

    We had £10bn on social care - is that new?
    Free Sky Sports on Monday
    No, Free Sky Sports 4 days a week...the other 3 the power won't be working.
    Yep back to the bad old 70s days of that terrible Labour PM... er, Ted Heath. :wink:
    Well to be fair, Boris is promising a baby boom...3 days of darkness, what else would people get up to.
  • Exciting election poster update from the streets of Finchley!

    I counted LD 10, Labour 8, Tory 0 on my stroll this morning. Shows how much it tells you..I expect the Tories to hold the seat

    In fact I havent seen a Tory election poster in London yet

    Same round my way. Scattered Labour rectangles and Lib Dem diamonds, not a blue poster in sight.

    Sitting Tory has a 16.5k majority.
    EDIT: there obviously has to be some print cost to these posters. Have the Tories simply decided that they are useless and no longer bothering to waste the money?
    Shouldn't think so...the paper posters in the windows cant cost much
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I think we all know what 'neo liberals' is code for
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Exciting election poster update from the streets of Finchley!

    I counted LD 10, Labour 8, Tory 0 on my stroll this morning. Shows how much it tells you..I expect the Tories to hold the seat

    In fact I havent seen a Tory election poster in London yet

    Same round my way. Scattered Labour rectangles and Lib Dem diamonds, not a blue poster in sight.

    Sitting Tory has a 16.5k majority.
    Round here I’ve seen a couple of houses with both LD and Labour placards, as if it’s part of the marriage counselling settlement.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:

    dyingswan said:

    If the Conservatives hit 29%in Scotland as suggested by Panelbase am I right in thinking that that is their highest share since 1979. Remarkable if so.

    Exceedingly unlikely , but would not be remarkable. The Labour voters who hate SNP, and majority of the bigots loving bands and the union jack will likely go to Tories. LibDems are useless and those types will not be interested in Greens. Morons vote for Johnson et al down south despite their nastiness and we have our share of morons and bigots up here as well unfortunately.
    Yes, if only the rest of your fellow Scots were as calm, thoughtful and decorously polite as you, Malc
    I say that to my wife often, and she nods sagely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    I think we all know what 'neo liberals' is code for

    I actually don't know that it is code - for years and years it seems to be used to mean just about anything, as is the case with a lot of 'neo-somethings'.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    nichomar said:

    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
    But corbyn is the best enabler for a Tory government, get rid of him and nationalization’s and stop trying to give power back to corrupt trade unions then people may take you seriously and don’t forget to clean out the antisemites then you might, just start to be electable. This is from an almost life long anti Tory who has spent 25 years on the doorsteps fighting them in the past.

    The political class across every party is full of corrupt cronies in politics to fuel their own bellies and corrupt media and special interest groups.

    Every labour potential pm has to go through the same shit from the Tory press. Wilson was a spy miliband was a Marxist. Its a fucking sham by corporate neo liberals to smearto Avoid talking about issues.

    Poverty..no I want to talk about anti Semitism.
    Homelessness..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Tax avoidance..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Privatisation.. No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Bank bailouts... No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Foreign wars...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Education...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Prisons..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Healthcare..no I want to talk about antisemitism
    Housing...no I want to talk about antisemitism

    Vote for what you value in society not what your against. If your voting Tory because you don't like someone shame on you. Look at your soul..your ticking a box for enables of child poverty, homelessness, privatisation for services to be profited for the few. Vote for what you believe not against.

    Gutter politics for neo liberals that dnomt want any political debate or exposure to their failure to make Britain a better place. Westminster and their media cronies across every party have failed us

    There aren't really any floating voters here I don't think. I would take this to DM comments or similar.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Exciting election poster update from the streets of Finchley!

    I counted LD 10, Labour 8, Tory 0 on my stroll this morning. Shows how much it tells you..I expect the Tories to hold the seat

    In fact I havent seen a Tory election poster in London yet

    Same round my way. Scattered Labour rectangles and Lib Dem diamonds, not a blue poster in sight.

    Sitting Tory has a 16.5k majority.
    EDIT: there obviously has to be some print cost to these posters. Have the Tories simply decided that they are useless and no longer bothering to waste the money?
    Christmas decorations take priority at this time of year.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.

    I agree with the British press that there was no reason to report that [SNIP] With Johnson its different, he has used words to describe single mothers and we have a right to know if he has more children which byb all accounts he does but doesn't want to talk about it because embarrassing to his reputation.
    "...."?! Are you sure??

    Seems unlikely to me - but maybe I take the idea of marriage being about trust and commitment more seriously than the royals do?
    Be careful about repeating libel
    Fair point - although I did question it. For the avoidance of doubt I do not believe it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    ukelect said:

    The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17

    Forecast here: UK-Elect Forecast December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    The inclusion of additional recent Scottish, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a noticeable increase in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.

    Tories only 3 seats shy of my premonition.
    Conservatives win Winchester by 4 votes!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    Welcome, lurker, why not stay and try the mincepies of proper debate? Have some eggnog of irrelevance after the lagershed! It's a non stop shindig.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    Welcome to PB and thanks for your local insight. Keep posting!
This discussion has been closed.