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  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    speedy2 said:

    The Labour strategy has been to defend in the north, advance in the south.
    The Conservative strategy is the reverse one.
    Err....that leads to only one result.

    A tory landslide.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    What does a 24 point gap on the MORI leadership polling imply?

    Labour are fecked.
    Well and truly fecked
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party.
    Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    Pulpstar said:

    I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party.
    Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?

    Out their arse?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Sean_F said:

    Then you realise that you were in a waking dream, and that the real figure is Cons on 403.

    Frosties stick in throat. Milk curdles. :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    RobD said:

    Out their arse?
    Well gut feelings have to make their way out one way or another, it's the quickest route.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,100
    Sean_F said:

    I think that's right. The Conservatives always had solid support in the Borders, even in bad years. Now the "Tartan Tories" in the North East have returned to them. At the same time, the SNP have hoovered up left wing votes in the central Belt.

    Edinburgh has probably abandoned the Conservatives for good, but there's still a bit of an Orange vote for them in Ayrshire and Lanarkshire.
    They are almost done for in Ayrshire as well, the dinosaurs are dying off.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.

    Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.

    I'll drink to that.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party.
    Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?

    Excellent point
  • @kinabalu Why have you changed from massive majority to HP?
  • When are the first polls coming out tonight ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    kinabalu said:

    Frosties stick in throat. Milk curdles. :smile:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW-0kbIcf1E :)
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    edited December 2019

    When are the first polls coming out tonight ?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,100

    Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.

    It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see

    I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that

    The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
    Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
  • Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.

    It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see

    I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that

    The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
    Which polls have shown anything but the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats?
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019

    What, both of them?
    My family is one of them :-) True, we aren't very many. But Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs are all on record as restricting their children's access to what they know is brain-rotting poison.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    @kinabalu Why have you changed from massive majority to HP?

    Too many 'baked beings'
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited December 2019

    When are the first polls coming out tonight ?

    7.00 pm for Delta constituency reports

    I do not know the times of others
  • If the Tories are on 310, is anyone able to make a simple prediction of where the other seats would fall in terms of party split?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited December 2019

    @kinabalu Why have you changed from massive majority to HP?

    Being supportive to you maybe
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Henrietta said:

    Isn't 80% 1/4 fractional and 1.25 decimal?
    Yes you're right according to this:
    https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
    But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on!
    Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
  • 7.00 pm for Delta constituency reports

    I do not know the times of others
    Thanks.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    Henrietta said:

    My family is one of them :-) True, we aren't very many. But Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs are all on record as restricting their children's access to what they know is brain-rotting poison.
    Sent them to schools with no electronic learning aids
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570

    If the Tories are on 310, is anyone able to make a simple prediction of where the other seats would fall in terms of party split?

    Remarkably close to now. I assume something like LDs 20, SNP 45, Labour 255
  • malcolmg said:

    Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
    I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
  • glwglw Posts: 10,366
    RobD said:

    Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?

    No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.

    New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
  • I think the problem is when the reporter says I am not asking about the economy it sums up the denial of how money is sourced
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    @kinabalu Why have you changed from massive majority to HP?

    Least I can do. Me predicting a big win for the ghastly "Boris" helps nobody, including me.
  • kinabalu said:

    Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.

    I'll drink to that.
    The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
  • How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Henrietta said:

    The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
    Because we are in a Union?
  • nunu2 said:

    Labour are fecked.
    Well and truly fecked
    24 gap on net approval means 9 point lead. 12 gap on positive approval (better predictor) means 6.5 point lead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Henrietta said:

    The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
    Well a of voters in England do care whether one is held or not. Personally while I fear one being lost I don't think it can reasonably be avoided, but while a vote on independence is for the Scots themselves to resolve, it is definitely of interest to other people in the Union, it is still a part of our country, for now at least.
  • TudorRose said:

    Because we are in a Union?
    And it would create the Irish border in spades
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2019
    Disseminating and sharing propaganda beginning in 4chan was a Russian tactic that was linked to 2017 developments in the US.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/russian-trolls-spread-baseless-conspiracy-theories-like

    I expect the Russia report may have turned up some similar things about the Referendum around the same time, which may be one of the reasons Johnson, but most of all Cummings, doesn't want it released yet.
  • How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied

    I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority

    I also am confident they would vote no again
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    kinabalu said:

    Money coming for it now. Should be 1.25. Will be 1.2 on eve of poll.

    It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    edited December 2019

    How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied

    It cannot. Going the Spain/Catalonia route is hardly a recipe for harmony and success. But that doesn't mean its unusual in some way for voters in England to care about it. The idea that people in one of the UK nations cannot or should not care about the others or issues happening in them is an unfortunately popular position in all the nations, and a major reason the Union is probably on its last legs.
  • 24 gap on net approval means 9 point lead. 12 gap on positive approval (better predictor) means 6.5 point lead.
    I would say that's where we are, about 7 points
  • Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited December 2019
    I may have accidentally created a useful new word tonight. Instead of typing 'mandating', I typed 'mandaring'.

    It strikes me that 'mandaring' might useful explain the process whereby certain humans end up winning Darwin awards. It would represent a more international expression of the existing Southern expression "Ya'll, watch this!"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    edited December 2019

    I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority

    I also am confident they would vote no again
    There is a nationalist majority in Holyrood now, is that not sufficient?

    While I was still backing leave at the time, the argument against a new Sindy ref was lost for me when we called a GE after triggering A50. If it was ok to potentially upend the political situation despite a ticking clock then not being able to have a Sindyref because of things needing to settle down didn not seem viable. And much as I'd like the 'once a generation' idea to be the case, if there's a will for a vote, there'll be a vote at some point.

    Unionists just need to make sure they fight hard, and be a lot more positive. English apathy plays its part.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Andrew said:


    It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
    I'm really not buying the idea the goal sticks have moved so far since 2017, if at all in that direction.

    2% was enough to only be a handful short last time. Even allowing for some Scottish losses, I'd be very surprised if a 5% lead on election day didn't let the Tories creep over the line. All the anecdotal evidence of tory votes moving north, with most defences against Lib Dems down South, should tend to make the tory vote a bit more efficient if there is a change.
  • DeClare said:

    Yes you're right according to this:
    https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
    But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on!
    Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
    Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y.
    Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
    The winds that swirl making timings for a Scottish Indy ref favourable or otherwise must be somewhat annoying for the SNP.

    I also don't imagine that currently the SNP has the vote over the line. but its perhaps not a good point for them given the background. A really good opportunity will come next year assuming Boris gets elected, but the economic case will be as bad as its ever been.

    No shortage of challenge for the SNP, but if they get it right, then good for them.

  • Interesting to see Big G supporting Labour's policy on independence.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .

    That’s woeful .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Andrew said:

    It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).

    Maybe so. 2017 is fresh in the memory and polls are not considered gospel. But that was my assessment of where the odds should be now and where I think they will be on Wednesday. We will see. The MRP on Tuesday will obviously be important.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I have yet to meet a single SCon voter in Ross-shire who intends to vote SLib on Thursday. It was us not the SLibs who were 2nd behind the Fat Laird in 2017. Other than by the Nats he is hated in the constituency!
    Ah, typical LibDemmery then! Thanks for the local knowledge.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012

    I would say that's where we are, about 7 points
    MORIi had a 12 pt lead only yesterday..
  • Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack

    It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification

    I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    "This coming Thursday those seats will have to be defended but there is no Davidson around any more."

    Its worth pointing out that Ruth Davidson has been a very active presence during the campaign in the seats the SCons are defending and the ones they regard as target seats in this GE.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
    Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    glw said:

    No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.

    New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
    Nokia as a company is remarkable in the number of times it has completely switched core products and services, even sectors.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nico67 said:

    Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .

    That’s woeful .

    I think most normal people have better things to be doing on a Friday night. In fact pretty much every night.
  • The info I had from a Liberal source about them losing Caithness must be correct. Just received 3 appeals from Liberal HQ in Great George St personally addressed. That takes total campaign letters from them to 14. Even received a letter today from some chap named Mike Smithson. Anyone heard of him before 😂 Maybe my SNP sources are correct and it is now the SCons in 2nd place behind the Nats!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    When we see the results keep in mind this forescast by Stephen Fisher and Matthew Lebo:

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

    "Using Norpoth and Lebo’s vote swing to seats model, a 0.7 Labour lead suggests a hung parliament with 282 Conservative seats and 296 Labour seats."

    "With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs."

    Personally I'm convinced that their model is incorrect because public opinion is not rational and mechanically predictable.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    I think the problem is when the reporter says I am not asking about the economy it sums up the denial of how money is sourced

    Gosh, you thought May was Maybot, This guy is like ' Get Brexit done' GeBred
  • kle4 said:

    There is a nationalist majority in Holyrood now, is that not sufficient?

    While I was still backing leave at the time, the argument against a new Sindy ref was lost for me when we called a GE after triggering A50. If it was ok to potentially upend the political situation despite a ticking clock then not being able to have a Sindyref because of things needing to settle down didn not seem viable. And much as I'd like the 'once a generation' idea to be the case, if there's a will for a vote, there'll be a vote at some point.

    Unionists just need to make sure they fight hard, and be a lot more positive. English apathy plays its part.
    No it needs the Holyrood elections in 2021 to be resolved before a referendum is considered
  • It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification

    I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
    The Tories here I meant, not the Tory Party.

    So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
  • Henrietta said:

    Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y.
    Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
    The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
  • When I first came here I thought Big G was impartial lol
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Omnium said:

    Is that really right? Sort of a meaningless thing, but I'm still surprised. (Any link you have I'd be interested, but happy to take your word for it)
    I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570

    When I first came here I thought Big G was impartial lol

    No one is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Henrietta said:

    The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?

    The message - an effective one IMO - is just simply, "Give us a majority and we will get politics off your screens and out of your life for a while."

    The appeal is to apoliticals. The "Brendas from Bristol".
  • fitalass said:

    "This coming Thursday those seats will have to be defended but there is no Davidson around any more."

    Its worth pointing out that Ruth Davidson has been a very active presence during the campaign in the seats the SCons are defending and the ones they regard as target seats in this GE.

    And now that's it's obvious to anyone with functioning senses that Labour will sell out to the SNP for a chance at power, that leaves precisely 2 parties for Scottish Unionist voters to support: Conservative or Lib Dem...
  • Interesting to see Big G supporting Labour's policy on independence.

    Scotland is close to my heart and my family and if another referendum comes about it needs the new Holyrood government in 2021 to have the mandate

    I am also content it will be lost

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    nico67 said:

    Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .

    That’s woeful .

    And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.

    I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority

    I also am confident they would vote no again
    My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Byronic said:

    Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK

    Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    IanB2 said:

    Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
    Is hilly land less depressing?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
    Yes - and that confused me at first with my daughters` Maths prep.

    Choosing a particular number in a dice role has a probability of 1:6 (because one outcome it will happen/six possible outcomes).

    Whereas in betting we say 5/1 for a dice role (meaning five chances it won`t happen/one chance that it will).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls. My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
    I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/tories-investigate-three-candidates-over-alleged-antisemitism
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Byronic said:

    Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK.

    The long black winters?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    When I first came here I thought Big G was impartial lol

    Can tell this account only has 5 days left now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    IanB2 said:

    I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it? ;)

    A whole bottle by 4 pm? Rock and roll.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/tories-investigate-three-candidates-over-alleged-antisemitism

    So much for that thousand year PB Tory reich. Meh. :(
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    TimT said:

    Nokia as a company is remarkable in the number of times it has completely switched core products and services, even sectors.
    I had a pair of Nokia rubber boots until quite recently.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    Is hilly land less depressing?
    Anything fractal (e.g. trees, rivers, hills, mountains) is less depressing than uniformity or regularity. It seems to be something to do with the way the brian is wired.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    @Big_G_NorthWales why does it require a holyrood 2021 election before the next IndyRef? Holyrood has already passed the legislation to have a IndyRef2 so there is clearly a majority for it already.
  • Squeaky bum time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Brom said:

    1.36!

    That’s a clear move in from 1.4 earlier in the day.

    In old money, now tighter that 4/11 and heading for 1/3, when it’s been a steady 2/5 for the last two days.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,819

    The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/tories-investigate-three-candidates-over-alleged-antisemitism

    The article she referred to is this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/the-minimum-wage-denies-my-daughter-the-dignity-of-a-paid-job/

    Agree or disagree, you should at least read it before flinging around mindless accusations.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    TimT said:

    I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
    Also presumably future referendums will be worded less ambiguously - surely that lesson will have been learnt.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    kle4 said:

    Is hilly land less depressing?
    Yes.
  • DeClare said:

    Sorry mister, it's nothing like 1992, this is my 14th election and it feels more like 1979 to me. I know that resulted in a change of government but this also feels like a change of government from a hung Parliament as it was also a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party back then.
    The Lib/Dems slumped in 1979 and seem to be doing the same now, there was also a lot of Scottish nationalism around too.
    In 1992 of course the government was re-elected with a majority of 21 after polls indicated a hung Patliament.
    Of course in1979 the SNP advanced from 11 seats to 2! They won't do that but fully expecting them to under achieve current polling numbers
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    O
    kle4 said:

    Is hilly land less depressing?
    Absolutely! The hills are alive.
  • The Tories here I meant, not the Tory Party.

    So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
    This is definitely one case where the supposed disinformation comes closer to the truth than anything Corbyn actually said...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    kinabalu said:

    A whole bottle by 4 pm? Rock and roll.

    And I have just replaced my hifi cables at not inconsiderable expense. It sounds much louder now. Largely because I have the volume turned up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    TimT said:

    Anything fractal (e.g. trees, rivers, hills, mountains) is less depressing than uniformity or regularity. It seems to be something to do with the way the brian is wired.
    Blame Brian. Just typical
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    speedy2 said:

    When we see the results keep in mind this forescast by Stephen Fisher and Matthew Lebo:

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

    "Using Norpoth and Lebo’s vote swing to seats model, a 0.7 Labour lead suggests a hung parliament with 282 Conservative seats and 296 Labour seats."

    "With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs."

    Personally I'm convinced that their model is incorrect because public opinion is not rational and mechanically predictable.

    Worth me pointing out, as I did a few days ago, that Ladbrokes have some interesting "GE Specials" as follows:

    Conservatives To Win Exactly 346 Seats: 25/1
    Conservatives To Win Exactly 334 Seats: 33/1
    Conservatives To Win Exactly 317 Seats: 50/1

    My gut is telling me that there is some value here, but I`m struggling to figure it out.

    Lads also have a "LibDems to get over 200 seats" market, which they have priced at 33/1.

    Strikes me that the LibDem odds could be 500/1 and I still wouldn`t back it whereas the identical 33/1 odds on the Tories getting 334 seats ..... hmm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Closest one yet? Expected one like this a few days ago. Would have to be a late late surge this time.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Yes.
    If you're really interested, see:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-chaotic-life/200909/fractal-brains-fractal-thoughts
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TimT said:

    I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
    You might be proved right if the saga drags on for long enough, but I doubt it. Scotland is one of the most ancient nation states of Europe, and a very large proportion of its population is heavily invested in getting it out of the Union.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
    And how would you differentiate the two?

    The above is wrong and should read probabilty of something when quoted 'x/y' in traditional odds is y/(y+x) - hence a three sided dice would be priced 2/1 for each runner and this 1/3 probability for each of them.
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