Hi, has anyone got any info on the Tory/Labour fight in Mansfield....(apologies to the scottish debate)
Unfortunately not. But I do have info that Labour are throwing a lot in defending nearby Bolsover and have abandoned Ashfield, so I don't expect Labour to be trying to gain Mansfield.
Interesting, the odds on labour did seem tempting.......i thought the sitting young Tory may be vulnerable if Labour had a good candidate...i suppose Mansfield isnt exactly easy for the Momentum minibuses.....
The Labour strategy has been to defend in the north, advance in the south. The Conservative strategy is the reverse one.
I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party. Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party. Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party. Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
Out their arse?
Well gut feelings have to make their way out one way or another, it's the quickest route.
I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat. The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland. If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.
On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.
For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.
I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
Don't forget the same was said about scottish Conservatives and a generation later they popped up in exactly the same areas and in the same strength.
The SNP coalition is simply to wide to hold forever and they already have been in power in scotland for 11 years, we don't know how their coalition would react if they lose power in the scottish assembly.
It's very difficult for a party to hold seats in both the Highlands and Glasgow, they are very different places, the SNP is already cracking along those fault lines.
I think that's right. The Conservatives always had solid support in the Borders, even in bad years. Now the "Tartan Tories" in the North East have returned to them. At the same time, the SNP have hoovered up left wing votes in the central Belt.
Edinburgh has probably abandoned the Conservatives for good, but there's still a bit of an Orange vote for them in Ayrshire and Lanarkshire.
They are almost done for in Ayrshire as well, the dinosaurs are dying off.
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.
I wish people would post the source of their apparent info that constituency X is going or staying for y party. Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
Which polls have shown anything but the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats?
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
What, both of them?
My family is one of them :-) True, we aren't very many. But Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs are all on record as restricting their children's access to what they know is brain-rotting poison.
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
What, both of them?
My family is one of them :-) True, we aren't very many. But Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs are all on record as restricting their children's access to what they know is brain-rotting poison.
Sent them to schools with no electronic learning aids
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?
No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.
New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.
I'll drink to that.
The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.
I'll drink to that.
The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.
I'll drink to that.
The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
Well a of voters in England do care whether one is held or not. Personally while I fear one being lost I don't think it can reasonably be avoided, but while a vote on independence is for the Scots themselves to resolve, it is definitely of interest to other people in the Union, it is still a part of our country, for now at least.
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
Then a year of chaos and vacillation and not one but TWO referendums.
I'll drink to that.
The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
I expect the Russia report may have turned up some similar things about the Referendum around the same time, which may be one of the reasons Johnson, but most of all Cummings, doesn't want it released yet.
Money coming for it now. Should be 1.25. Will be 1.2 on eve of poll.
It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
It cannot. Going the Spain/Catalonia route is hardly a recipe for harmony and success. But that doesn't mean its unusual in some way for voters in England to care about it. The idea that people in one of the UK nations cannot or should not care about the others or issues happening in them is an unfortunately popular position in all the nations, and a major reason the Union is probably on its last legs.
Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
I may have accidentally created a useful new word tonight. Instead of typing 'mandating', I typed 'mandaring'.
It strikes me that 'mandaring' might useful explain the process whereby certain humans end up winning Darwin awards. It would represent a more international expression of the existing Southern expression "Ya'll, watch this!"
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
There is a nationalist majority in Holyrood now, is that not sufficient?
While I was still backing leave at the time, the argument against a new Sindy ref was lost for me when we called a GE after triggering A50. If it was ok to potentially upend the political situation despite a ticking clock then not being able to have a Sindyref because of things needing to settle down didn not seem viable. And much as I'd like the 'once a generation' idea to be the case, if there's a will for a vote, there'll be a vote at some point.
Unionists just need to make sure they fight hard, and be a lot more positive. English apathy plays its part.
Money coming for it now. Should be 1.25. Will be 1.2 on eve of poll.
It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
I'm really not buying the idea the goal sticks have moved so far since 2017, if at all in that direction.
2% was enough to only be a handful short last time. Even allowing for some Scottish losses, I'd be very surprised if a 5% lead on election day didn't let the Tories creep over the line. All the anecdotal evidence of tory votes moving north, with most defences against Lib Dems down South, should tend to make the tory vote a bit more efficient if there is a change.
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
The winds that swirl making timings for a Scottish Indy ref favourable or otherwise must be somewhat annoying for the SNP.
I also don't imagine that currently the SNP has the vote over the line. but its perhaps not a good point for them given the background. A really good opportunity will come next year assuming Boris gets elected, but the economic case will be as bad as its ever been.
No shortage of challenge for the SNP, but if they get it right, then good for them.
It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
Maybe so. 2017 is fresh in the memory and polls are not considered gospel. But that was my assessment of where the odds should be now and where I think they will be on Wednesday. We will see. The MRP on Tuesday will obviously be important.
Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is
Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
I have yet to meet a single SCon voter in Ross-shire who intends to vote SLib on Thursday. It was us not the SLibs who were 2nd behind the Fat Laird in 2017. Other than by the Nats he is hated in the constituency!
Ah, typical LibDemmery then! Thanks for the local knowledge.
Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification
I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
"This coming Thursday those seats will have to be defended but there is no Davidson around any more."
Its worth pointing out that Ruth Davidson has been a very active presence during the campaign in the seats the SCons are defending and the ones they regard as target seats in this GE.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?
No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.
New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
Nokia as a company is remarkable in the number of times it has completely switched core products and services, even sectors.
The info I had from a Liberal source about them losing Caithness must be correct. Just received 3 appeals from Liberal HQ in Great George St personally addressed. That takes total campaign letters from them to 14. Even received a letter today from some chap named Mike Smithson. Anyone heard of him before 😂 Maybe my SNP sources are correct and it is now the SCons in 2nd place behind the Nats!
"Using Norpoth and Lebo’s vote swing to seats model, a 0.7 Labour lead suggests a hung parliament with 282 Conservative seats and 296 Labour seats."
"With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs."
Personally I'm convinced that their model is incorrect because public opinion is not rational and mechanically predictable.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
There is a nationalist majority in Holyrood now, is that not sufficient?
While I was still backing leave at the time, the argument against a new Sindy ref was lost for me when we called a GE after triggering A50. If it was ok to potentially upend the political situation despite a ticking clock then not being able to have a Sindyref because of things needing to settle down didn not seem viable. And much as I'd like the 'once a generation' idea to be the case, if there's a will for a vote, there'll be a vote at some point.
Unionists just need to make sure they fight hard, and be a lot more positive. English apathy plays its part.
No it needs the Holyrood elections in 2021 to be resolved before a referendum is considered
Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification
I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
The Tories here I meant, not the Tory Party.
So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
Is that really right? Sort of a meaningless thing, but I'm still surprised. (Any link you have I'd be interested, but happy to take your word for it)
I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it?
The "two referendums" line is a classic case of lumping two things together so as to distract attention from both of them individually. A referendum on a "Deal" is a good idea. It would say to voters "Here are the details of what Leave will mean. Do you still want it?" As for a second referendum in Scotland, why should voters in England (except if they are Scots) care whether one is held or not?
The message - an effective one IMO - is just simply, "Give us a majority and we will get politics off your screens and out of your life for a while."
The appeal is to apoliticals. The "Brendas from Bristol".
"This coming Thursday those seats will have to be defended but there is no Davidson around any more."
Its worth pointing out that Ruth Davidson has been a very active presence during the campaign in the seats the SCons are defending and the ones they regard as target seats in this GE.
And now that's it's obvious to anyone with functioning senses that Labour will sell out to the SNP for a chance at power, that leaves precisely 2 parties for Scottish Unionist voters to support: Conservative or Lib Dem...
Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .
That’s woeful .
And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
Yes - and that confused me at first with my daughters` Maths prep.
Choosing a particular number in a dice role has a probability of 1:6 (because one outcome it will happen/six possible outcomes).
Whereas in betting we say 5/1 for a dice role (meaning five chances it won`t happen/one chance that it will).
Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .
That’s woeful .
And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...
I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it?
The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...
Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?
No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.
New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
Nokia as a company is remarkable in the number of times it has completely switched core products and services, even sectors.
I had a pair of Nokia rubber boots until quite recently.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
Is hilly land less depressing?
Anything fractal (e.g. trees, rivers, hills, mountains) is less depressing than uniformity or regularity. It seems to be something to do with the way the brian is wired.
@Big_G_NorthWales why does it require a holyrood 2021 election before the next IndyRef? Holyrood has already passed the legislation to have a IndyRef2 so there is clearly a majority for it already.
The Tory candidate in Hastings & Rye, Sally Ann Heart, is not having a good week. First she says it's ok to pay disabled workers less and now she's under investigation by CCHQ for alleged antisemitism and use of Nazi slogans...
Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .
That’s woeful .
And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
Also presumably future referendums will be worded less ambiguously - surely that lesson will have been learnt.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
Sorry mister, it's nothing like 1992, this is my 14th election and it feels more like 1979 to me. I know that resulted in a change of government but this also feels like a change of government from a hung Parliament as it was also a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party back then. The Lib/Dems slumped in 1979 and seem to be doing the same now, there was also a lot of Scottish nationalism around too. In 1992 of course the government was re-elected with a majority of 21 after polls indicated a hung Patliament.
Of course in1979 the SNP advanced from 11 seats to 2! They won't do that but fully expecting them to under achieve current polling numbers
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification
I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
The Tories here I meant, not the Tory Party.
So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
This is definitely one case where the supposed disinformation comes closer to the truth than anything Corbyn actually said...
I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it?
A whole bottle by 4 pm? Rock and roll.
And I have just replaced my hifi cables at not inconsiderable expense. It sounds much louder now. Largely because I have the volume turned up.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
Is hilly land less depressing?
Anything fractal (e.g. trees, rivers, hills, mountains) is less depressing than uniformity or regularity. It seems to be something to do with the way the brian is wired.
"Using Norpoth and Lebo’s vote swing to seats model, a 0.7 Labour lead suggests a hung parliament with 282 Conservative seats and 296 Labour seats."
"With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs."
Personally I'm convinced that their model is incorrect because public opinion is not rational and mechanically predictable.
Worth me pointing out, as I did a few days ago, that Ladbrokes have some interesting "GE Specials" as follows:
Conservatives To Win Exactly 346 Seats: 25/1 Conservatives To Win Exactly 334 Seats: 33/1 Conservatives To Win Exactly 317 Seats: 50/1
My gut is telling me that there is some value here, but I`m struggling to figure it out.
Lads also have a "LibDems to get over 200 seats" market, which they have priced at 33/1.
Strikes me that the LibDem odds could be 500/1 and I still wouldn`t back it whereas the identical 33/1 odds on the Tories getting 334 seats ..... hmm.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .
That’s woeful .
And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
You might be proved right if the saga drags on for long enough, but I doubt it. Scotland is one of the most ancient nation states of Europe, and a very large proportion of its population is heavily invested in getting it out of the Union.
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
And how would you differentiate the two?
The above is wrong and should read probabilty of something when quoted 'x/y' in traditional odds is y/(y+x) - hence a three sided dice would be priced 2/1 for each runner and this 1/3 probability for each of them.
Comments
A tory landslide.
Well and truly fecked
Model, poster count, conversations in the constituency, postal vote returns (Volume from certain areas), canvassing returns or leaflet counts from friends in the constituency. ?
I'll drink to that.
I do not know the times of others
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on!
Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/russian-trolls-spread-baseless-conspiracy-theories-like
I expect the Russia report may have turned up some similar things about the Referendum around the same time, which may be one of the reasons Johnson, but most of all Cummings, doesn't want it released yet.
I also am confident they would vote no again
It'll hit a limit before that surely? If the polling averages are 9/10%, and NOM is at 6/7%, it doesn't take too much of a polling error … ie last election, or even better 2015 (which also had a static con-lab delta for ages, but ended up con+6%).
It strikes me that 'mandaring' might useful explain the process whereby certain humans end up winning Darwin awards. It would represent a more international expression of the existing Southern expression "Ya'll, watch this!"
While I was still backing leave at the time, the argument against a new Sindy ref was lost for me when we called a GE after triggering A50. If it was ok to potentially upend the political situation despite a ticking clock then not being able to have a Sindyref because of things needing to settle down didn not seem viable. And much as I'd like the 'once a generation' idea to be the case, if there's a will for a vote, there'll be a vote at some point.
Unionists just need to make sure they fight hard, and be a lot more positive. English apathy plays its part.
2% was enough to only be a handful short last time. Even allowing for some Scottish losses, I'd be very surprised if a 5% lead on election day didn't let the Tories creep over the line. All the anecdotal evidence of tory votes moving north, with most defences against Lib Dems down South, should tend to make the tory vote a bit more efficient if there is a change.
Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
I also don't imagine that currently the SNP has the vote over the line. but its perhaps not a good point for them given the background. A really good opportunity will come next year assuming Boris gets elected, but the economic case will be as bad as its ever been.
No shortage of challenge for the SNP, but if they get it right, then good for them.
That’s woeful .
I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
Its worth pointing out that Ruth Davidson has been a very active presence during the campaign in the seats the SCons are defending and the ones they regard as target seats in this GE.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/
"Using Norpoth and Lebo’s vote swing to seats model, a 0.7 Labour lead suggests a hung parliament with 282 Conservative seats and 296 Labour seats."
"With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs."
Personally I'm convinced that their model is incorrect because public opinion is not rational and mechanically predictable.
Gosh, you thought May was Maybot, This guy is like ' Get Brexit done' GeBred
So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
The appeal is to apoliticals. The "Brendas from Bristol".
I am also content it will be lost
Choosing a particular number in a dice role has a probability of 1:6 (because one outcome it will happen/six possible outcomes).
Whereas in betting we say 5/1 for a dice role (meaning five chances it won`t happen/one chance that it will).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/tories-investigate-three-candidates-over-alleged-antisemitism
In old money, now tighter that 4/11 and heading for 1/3, when it’s been a steady 2/5 for the last two days.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/the-minimum-wage-denies-my-daughter-the-dignity-of-a-paid-job/
Agree or disagree, you should at least read it before flinging around mindless accusations.
And I have just replaced my hifi cables at not inconsiderable expense. It sounds much louder now. Largely because I have the volume turned up.
Conservatives To Win Exactly 346 Seats: 25/1
Conservatives To Win Exactly 334 Seats: 33/1
Conservatives To Win Exactly 317 Seats: 50/1
My gut is telling me that there is some value here, but I`m struggling to figure it out.
Lads also have a "LibDems to get over 200 seats" market, which they have priced at 33/1.
Strikes me that the LibDem odds could be 500/1 and I still wouldn`t back it whereas the identical 33/1 odds on the Tories getting 334 seats ..... hmm.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-chaotic-life/200909/fractal-brains-fractal-thoughts
The above is wrong and should read probabilty of something when quoted 'x/y' in traditional odds is y/(y+x) - hence a three sided dice would be priced 2/1 for each runner and this 1/3 probability for each of them.