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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Protecting Our Democracy?
Remember the Supreme Court cases on prorogation or Article 50? How irrelevant they seem if, as polls indicate, the Tories get a majority. With 7 days to go, can there be a better time to wheel out Wilson’s dictum about a week being a long time in politics? There cannot. Consider it duly wheeled out.
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https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
Thanks you for your kind and thoughtful little post. Like you, I have personal reasons for finding it especially odious but let's no go there on this sunny morning. We can shake hands on our hostility to AS and enjoy the rest of the day.
Con gain Annunziata Rees-Mogg
Annunziata Rees-Mogg has resigned from the Breixt Party to say vote Tory, Nigel Farage conforms. So Jacob has been busy after all.
Democracy and scrutiny on live tv
It's not some immutable law of God that it remains in its present form forever.
The only laugh will be when the Tories lose a future election and then complain about the sweeping powers they granted to a Labour government.
I can't help but feel this is sour grapes from Labour supporters after their man was humiliated by Andrew Neil.
It was Corbyn's choice to be interviewed just as Boris has chosen to be interviewed countless times elsewhere.
And to claim only a sit down with AN will provide proper scrutiny over an election cycle is laughably childish.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.
If that was the plan Farage would have trailed the 'huge announcement' to ensure he had the spotlight.
The larger the majority the more room for him to compromise to get a deal
Only bets I now have is on Skinner holding Bolsover at 5/4 and Toby holding Chesterfield at 1/3
Equally it's highly unlikely you would gain anything by attending so in the same way I said it was pointless for a Tory candidate to appear at an climate change hustings (their time would be more productively spent elsewhere) it's equally true here.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202511979488919552?s=20
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends that is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals). When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.
When Cameron was PM, Andrew Neil used to joke about the fact no party leader wanted to be interviewed by him despite him offering himself for interviews. Just because Corbyn chose to drink from a poisoned chalice doesn't mean anybody else has to do so.
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1202521499581575172?s=20
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1202526780638334977?s=20
Two cultists and a lightweight....
I am hoping for a Boris OR Corbyn minority govt so we can limit the damage from either of these fools.
Why would anyone with multiple options go into Politics in this day and age. The amount of grief Social media and 24 hours has created means it's a completely thankless and even dangerous job.
Once Brexit is confirmed then the hysterical haze that fogs brains on both sides of the argument might clear and reveal a Conservative government that will be very much in the one-nation mould.
On domestic issues Boris is from the liberal wing of the party and it is an easy line for labour and remainers to try to paint the party as right wing.
I would take issue with one point though: major changes in the UK constitution have rarely come about on a cross-party basis (or, going back before parties, on a cross-institutional one). Indeed, they've usually come about when one side imposes its will on a deeply hostile opposition. Only after the change, and when the public is reconciled to it, does there develop the political consensus.
The Bill of Rights, for example - that cornerstone of the constitution - did not come about because there was a consensus but because there was a civil war in which (one part of) the victorious side made the statement and enactment into law of these contested principles a red-line demand.
Grow up.
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 13%.
Corbyn chose to do an interview that turned in to a humiliating car-crash.
That's his problem not Boris's.
I doubt even with 15 point leads in some polls Tories would say a 99.95% chance of a majority.
Interesting that Isabel Oakeshott has tweeted 'am conflicted' because she is in a relationship with Richard Tice, Brexit party chairman and candidate for Hartlepool
The bizarre ultra-libertarian-marxist Living Marxism crowd that helped form the Brexit Party understand this much better than most of the current nativist and populist Tory candidates.
It's a submission by JLM. Only from Lab canvassers.
They told me they expect to win just("quietly confident"), about a fortnight ago.
Then about a week ago they were in "we will be ok things are moving our way" mode.
One told me he expected a 2000 win
Canvassers can be rubbish forecasters though so I wouldn't be swayed if I were you.
Feel free to lay me 100/1 on some party winning a majority.
I just have a good memory. Blessing and a curse.
Whistle while you work
Whistle while you work
Mussolini is a weenie
Hitler is a jerk
2% return available in a week by laying Labour maj at 50
It's certainly unlikely, but I don't think it's 16/1 unlikely. Essentially I'm betting that (a) Swinson has bottomed out and could indeed stage a modest recovery, (b) there is going to be a lot of tactical voting, (c) there's a chance that either Johnson or Corbyn will screw up somehow over the next week.
I'll keep an eye on it over the week and may decide to cut my losses after the weekend, but for now it looks tempting.
Anyone who sprouts "certainty" or "99.95" is generally talking bullshit.
The one thing I can say for certainty or 99.95% is that Jo Swinson will not be our next Prime Minister whatever her protestations.
Thatcher abolished the GLC by the stroke of a pen - well, a vote in parliament when she had a convenient majority of 144. Even Tories on the GLC and its predecessor the LCC thought it was outrageous.
At times only the House of Lords stands between us and tyranny.
Well, we have the courts but they depend on millionaires. There's no legal aid for 'constitutional' or 'public interest' litigation. Also Johnson wants to alter them.
Tell me what Gauke has done to justify a high opinion of him? Besides his contempt for democracy when he is on the losing side has he done anything else fantastic?